ESGC6318 Applications of Demographic Techniques

Test
16 May 2014
Time: 6.15 pm -7.30 pm
Answer all questions (TOTAL 40 MARKS)
1. List the three main sources of demographic data and compare the strengths
and weaknesses of each of these sources.
(4 marks)
Sources

Strengths

Weaknesses

Population censuses

Complete coverage,
suitable for small area
analysis

Limited information, lack

of quality control, not
suitable for complex
issues, long interval (not
up to date)

Demographic surveys

Comprehensive data,
better quality control,
suitable for in-depth
analysis

Insufficient sample size

for small area analysis,
may have lower
response rate, may not
be representative of the
total population

Vital registration

Complete coverage, upto-date information,

cheaper to collect the
information

Limited data for indepth analysis, will have

to combine with
population censuses for
the denominator in
calculating the rates

2. Briefly discuss the information needed for education planning.

(3 marks)
Number of school going population by age and geographical distribution (and
also ethnicity in Malaysia where different ethnic groups have their own
vernacular schools, migration trends, enrolment ratio, transition rate,
educational budget, student-teacher ratio, number of trained teachers and
schools by level and location.

3. Fill up all the blanks in the following table. What is the probability that the
marriage is still intact after 5 years? (Hint: Apply life table technique)
(3 marks)

< 1 year
2 years
3 years
4 years
5 years

Number of women Number of

Probability of
married at base
dissolved
marriage
year and
marriages
dissolution
subsequent years
11
0.009
1200
12
0.010
1189
7
0.006
1177
14
0.012
1170
1156

Cumulative
probability of
marriage
dissolution
0.009
0.019
0.025
0.037

USE MALAYSIAN CENSUS DATA FOR YEAR 2000 TO ANSWER Q4 5 (Go to

Forum under Spectrum)
Select if sex=2 (female) then crosstab marital status by agegp. Copy and
paste percent never married into the template to get SMAM
4. Tabulate the marital distribution of women by age group (age5), and
calculate the singulate mean age at marriage.
(5 marks)

Marital status [general version] * Age group Crosstabulation

% within Age group

Age
group

0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60+

Total

95.17333
66.61774
29.04751
12.06834
7.772436
5.782215
5.122655
4.310345

1,108

Marital status [general version]

Separated/divorce
Single/never married Married/in union
d/spouse absent
100.0%
100.0%
99.4%
.6%
.0%
95.2%
4.7%
.1%
66.6%
32.9%
.4%
29.0%
69.6%
.9%
12.1%
85.6%
1.3%
7.8%
88.9%
1.5%
5.8%
88.5%
2.1%
5.1%
86.4%
2.1%
4.3%
81.0%
2.0%
3.1%
76.2%
1.9%
1.6%
50.3%
2.1%
53.2%
41.0%
.8%

2,608

236

2,372

95

Widowed

.0%
.0%
.1%
.4%
1.0%
1.8%
3.6%
6.4%
12.7%
18.9%
46.0%
4.9%

Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%

24.9

5. Cross-tabulate employment sector for those aged 20-59 (hint: use select if
command) by sex. Interpret the results.
(5 marks)
Select if age >19 and age<60 then run crosstab

Sector of employment * Sex Crosstabulation

% within Sex
Sex
Sector of
employment

Total

Public
Private, not
elsewhere classified
Individual/family
enterprise, and
self-employed

Male
14.0%

Female
18.7%

Total
15.5%

53.3%

61.2%

55.8%

32.7%

20.1%

28.7%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

Females are more likely than males to work in public and private sector while
males are more likely to work individually in family enterprise or self employed.
A little more than half of the males and 61% of female workers are working as
employees in the private sector.
USE SINGAPORE DATA IN TABLE 1 BELOW TO ANSWER Q.6 -9
6. Construct a super-imposed population pyramid for years 1970 and 2000 (in
numbers), and comment on the demographic changes during this period.
(5 marks)

The largest increase in numerical terms are those age 45-54, and the largest
increase in percentage terms is among those age 80+. The sex ratio is rather
balanced for all age groups.
The age structure has shifted from a youthful population in 1970 to an aged
population in 2010. The population aged 60 and above will be increasing very
rapidly in the near future as the large groups age 40 and above will be
retiring in 10-20 years.

7. Calculate i) the average annual rate of population growth from 1970 to 2010;
the sex ratio of population aged 65 and above for year 2010, iii) overall
dependency burden, iv) child women rate (15-44), and v) ageing index.
(5 marks)
Annual rate of growth =1.035%
sex ratio for those aged 65+ in 2010=0.796
Total dependency ratio
262
290
329
150
125
88
95

Total
dep
1339
Working3740
TDR
0.3580
21
Child women ratio
Wome
n

child
262

175
166
190
209
220
211

Total
women

1171

223.7
4

ratio

Ageing index
Old

Young
150

262

125

290

88

329

95

881

458

AI

51.986
38

8. Project the population up to year 2040, with 2010 as base year, and the
following assumptions:
i)
No international migration
ii)
TFR remain low at 1.3 throughout
iii)
ASFRs remain constant as follows: 6, 28.8, 77.2, 92.0, 40.8 and 6.5 for
ages 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, and 45-49.
iv)
Life expectancy for males increased from 76 in 2010 to 80 in 2040; life
expectancy for females increasing from 78 in 2010 to 80 in 2040.
(Show summary reports of the projections)
(5 marks)

Singapore Population Projection

2010-2040
Fertility
Input TFR
Calculated TFR
GRR
NRR
Mean Age of Childbearing
Child-woman ratio
Fertility table: Custom
Mortality
Male LE
Female LE
Total LE
IMR
U5MR
Life table: Coale-Demeny West
Immigration
Male
Female
Total
Vital Rates
CBR per 1000
CDR per 1000
RNI percent
GR percent
Doubling time
Annual births and deaths
Births
Deaths
Population
Total
Male
Female
Percent
Percent
Percent
Percent
Percent
Percent

0-4
5-14
15-24
15-49
15-64
65 and over

2010
1.3
1.3
0.63
0.62
30.3
0.19

2015
1.3
1.3
0.63
0.62
30.5
0.19

2020
1.3
1.3
0.63
0.62
30.7
0.18

2025
1.3
1.3
0.63
0.62
30.9
0.19

2030
1.3
1.3
0.63
0.62
31
0.19

2035
1.3
1.3
0.63
0.62
31
0.19

76
78
77
8.8
9.8

76.6
78.2
77.4
7.5
8.3

77.4
78.5
78
6.3
6.8

78.2
78.9
78.5
5
5.3

79
79.2
79.1
3.7
3.8

79.9
79.6
79.7
2.5
2.3

0
0
0

0
0
0

0
0
0

0
0
0

0
0
0

0
0
0

10.2
7.2
0.3
0.3

9.3
7.5
0.19
0.19

8.3
9.5
-0.12
-0.12

7.9
11.4
-0.35
-0.35

7.3
13.2
-0.59
-0.59

234

372.4

8.7
8.3
0.04
0.04
1,626.5
0

51,627
36,553

48,026
38,445

45,112
42,909

43,053
49,082

40,170
57,921

36,442
65,667

5,081,0
00
2,508,0
00
2,573,0
00
5.16
12.18
13.54
53.93
73.65
9.01

5,142,6
34
2,546,4
41
2,596,1
93
4.78
10.72
13.29
51.05
73.41
11.09

5,168,4
43
2,564,8
61
2,603,5
83
4.44
9.82
11.96
48.26
71.72
14.03

5,156,0
17
2,562,9
01
2,593,1
16
4.23
9.21
10.68
45.1
68.88
17.68

5,091,2
61
2,534,7
61
2,556,5
00
4.05
8.78
9.95
42.62
66.04
21.13

4,967,4
82
2,478,0
32
2,489,4
50
3.81
8.54
9.55
40.93
63.99
23.67

Percent females 15-49

Sex ratio
Dependency ratio
Median age

53.91
97.47
0.36
37

51.12
98.08
0.36
40

48.24
98.51
0.39
42

44.89
98.83
0.45
44

42.01
99.15
0.51
46

39.96
99.54
0.56
48

9. Construct life tables for males and females. What is the life expectancy of a
male and a female who is aged 65 years?
(5 marks)
Male 78.55, years, at 65 17.51 years
Females 79.37 years, at 65 16.72 years

Table 1: Singapore population and ASDR

ASDR
2010
Population (in
thousands)
Age
Singapo
re

Populati
on

Population

Populati
on

Populati
on

Populati
on

Populati
on

<1

0.00260

0.00170

1-4

0.00010

0.00020

5-9

0.00010

0.00020

2010

2010

Female

1970
Both
sexes

Male

Female

2010
Both
sexes

121

114

235

133

129

262

10-14

0.00010

0.00010

5-9

144

137

281

148

142

290

15-19

0.00030

0.00010

10-14

148

140

289

169

160

329

20-24

0.00040

0.00030

15-19

126

120

247

180

175

355

25-29

0.00050

0.00030

20-24

103

101

204

167

166

333

30-34

0.00050

0.00030

25-29

67

66

133

177

190

367

35-39

0.00090

0.00050

30-34

69

68

136

193

209

402

40-44

0.00140

0.00090

35-39

58

55

113

210

220

431

45-49

0.00240

0.00120

40-44

54

47

101

206

211

416

50-54

0.00400

0.00230

45-49

44

38

82

220

216

435

55-59

0.00660

0.00360

50-54

38

34

71

206

202

408

60-64

0.01060

0.00570

55-59

34

31

65

168

167

335

65-69

0.01830

0.00980

60-64

25

24

49

128

131

258

70-74

0.03030

0.01870

65-69

17

17

34

72

78

150

75-79

0.04880

0.03160

70-74

11

19

58

67

125

80-84

0.07950

0.05250

75-79

10

38

50

88

85+

0.15903

0.12452

80+

35

60

95

1970

1970

Male
0-4

3031.87

2982.2

6 014

4516.21

END

4582.5

9 099