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Abhinav Final Project Final
Abhinav Final Project Final
Introduction
The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have emerged as noteworthy players in
the Indian stock market and their growing contribution adds as an important
feature of the development of stock markets in India. To facilitate foreign capital
flows, developing countries have been advised to strengthen their stock markets.
As a result, the Indian Stock Markets have reached new heights and became more
volatile making the researches work in this dimension of establishing the link
between FIIs and Stock Market volatility. Hence, its an interesting topic to
ascertain the role of FIIs in Indian Capital Markets.
Until the 1980s, there was a general reluctance towards foreign investment or
private commercial flows as Indias development strategy was focused on selfreliance and import substitution and current account deficits were financed largely
through debt flows and official development assistance. A major development in
our country, post 1991 has been liberalization of the financial sector, especially that
of capital markets. After the launch of the reforms, foreign institutional investors
(FIIs) from September 14, 1992, with suitable restrictions, were permitted to invest
in all securities traded on the primary and secondary markets, including shares,
debentures and warrants issued by companies which were listed or were to be
listed on the Stock Exchanges in India and in schemes floated by domestic mutual
funds. A positive contribution of the FIIs has been their role in improving the stock
market infrastructure and the SEBI assured its contribution towards its
development.
FII is defined as an institution organized outside of India for the purpose of making
investments into the Indian securities market under the regulations prescribed by
SEBI.FII include Overseas pension funds, mutual funds, investment trust, asset
management company, nominee company, bank, institutional portfolio manager,
university funds, endowments, foundations, charitable trusts, charitable societies, a
trustee or power of attorney holder incorporated or established outside India
proposing to make proprietary investments or investments on behalf of a broadbased fund.
FIIs can invest their own funds as well as invest on behalf of their overseas clients
registered as such with SEBI. These client accounts that the FII manages are
known as sub-accounts. A domestic portfolio manager can also register itself as
an FII to manage the funds of sub-accountsforeign institutional investor means an
entity established or incorporated outside India which proposes to make investment
in India. Positive tidings about the Indian economy combined with a fast-growing
market have made India an attractive destination for foreign institutional investors.
In other words FII is defined as an institution organized outside of India for the
purpose of making investments into the Indian securities market under the
regulations prescribed by SEBI.
1.1 Investment by FIIs
There are generally two methods to invest for Foreign Institutional Investors Equity Investment
100% investments could be in equity related instruments or up to 30% could be
invested in debt instruments i.e.70 (Equity Instruments): 30 (Debt Instruments)
100% Debt
100% investment has to be made in debt securities only
EQUITY INVESTMENT ROUTE: In case of Equity route the FIIs can invest in
the following instruments:
A. Securities in the primary and secondary market including shares which are
unlisted, listed or to be listed on a recognized stock exchange in India.
B. Units of schemes floated by the Unit Trust of India and other domestic mutual
funds, whether listed or not.
C. Warrants
100% DEBT ROUTE: In case of Debt Route the FIIs can invest in the following
instruments:
a. Debentures (Non Convertible Debentures, Partly Convertible Debentures etc.)
b. Bonds
c. Dated government securities
d. Treasury Bills
e. Other Debt Market Instruments
It should be noted that foreign companies and individuals are not be eligible to
invest through the100 % debt route.
1.2 Scope & Trading Mechanism of Foreign Institutional Investors In India.
The scope and the trading mechanism of Foreign Institutional investors in India is
discussed as follow:
The FII registration is valid for 5 years. After expiry of 5 years, the registration
needs to be renewed.
Same as initial registration, Along with "Form A" and all the relevant documents,
the applicants are required to fill in additional form (Annexure 1) while applying
for renewal. US $ 5,000 needs to be paid for renewal of FII registration.
The application for renewal should be submitted three months before expiry of the
FII registration. 100 % debt FIIs are debt dedicated FIIs which invest in debt
securities only. The procedure for registration of FII/sub-account, under 100% debt
route is similar to that of normal funds besides a clear statement by the applicant
that it wishes to be registered as FII/sub-account under 100% debt route.
2. Literature Review
The remarkable economic growth during the past two decades in most of the
emerging countries had been stimulated by foreign capital inflows from developed
countries. The post 1990s period witnessed sharp augment inflows of foreign
private capital and official development finance lost its predominance in net capital
inflows. Most of the developing countries opened their capital markets to foreign
investors either because of inflationary pressures, widening current account
deficits, exchange depreciation, increase in foreign debt or as a result of economic
policy. There was a surge in capital inflows into India too since 1992 as in India,
the purchase of domestic securities by FIIs was first allowed in September 1992 as
part of the liberalization process that followed the balance of payment crisis in
1990-91 (Gordon and Gupta, 2003).
Now days, a significant portion of Indian corporate sectors securities are held by
Foreign Institutional Investors, such as pension funds, mutual funds and insurance
companies. These investors are often viewed as sophisticated investors as these
institutional investors are better informed and better equipped to process
information than individual investors (Han and Wang, 2004). As the share of
foreign investors in emerging markets has risen, they have influenced the assets
prices considerably. Consequently, policymakers have become increasingly
concerned about the factors determining international investment, the performance
of foreign capital investments, and the impact of foreign investment on local
turnover and on the volatility of stock prices (Tesar and Werner, 1995).
The impact study of FIIs flows on domestic stock market is important from
government as well as investor point of view, for example, does the opening up of
the market for FII increase speculation in the market and thus make the market
more volatile and more vulnerable to foreign shocks (Li, 2002). The immediate
impact of market opening to FIIs is the surge in trading volume and capital inflows
to domestic stock markets, result of which the boom in stock prices. The stock
market boom, typically, does not last for the entire period is of capital inflows. It
usually starts with the initial surge in capital inflows and ends before the episode of
capital inflows completely subsides (Calvo and Mendoza, 2000).
Henry (2000) reports the two possible consequences of market liberalization in the
light of international asset pricing models. First outcome of market liberalization
(because of its impact on the cost of capital) is an increase in a countrys equity
prices because market learns that domestic markets will liberalize more in near
future. The second impact of market liberalization is on physical investment that
will increase because of fall in cost of capital as new entrepreneurs will initiate
more investment projects. The second effect of market liberalization will definitely
increase the rate of economic growth.
Similarly Gompers et al. (2001) prove that institutional investors invested in liquid
and large stocks having low returns during the previous year. So an increase in the
institutional demand in share market will affect stock market prices and returns if
supply and demand curves for that particular share are not perfectly elastic.
Han et al. (2004) also analyze the impact of institutional investors on stock prices
from a different perspective. They studied the impact on stock prices because of
the investment constraints on institutional investors by their unit holders.
Institutional constraints some time refrain from selling or purchasing of stock
about which they have even some good/bad news. So they conclude that higher
institutional investment constraints have strong price momentum on the shares.
Similarly Lin et al. (2006) conclude that the investment performance of FIIs high
holding stocks is significantly better than that of FIIs low holding stocks. They
presented the evidence that FIIs trading behavior has generated better returns and
portfolio performance since the stock markets full liberalization. Li (2002) studies
the impact of market opening to foreign investors on Taiwan stock market behavior
and found no significant changes in stock market return after market opening. But
author agreed that the impact on return should be there because large international
investors tend to study companies more thoroughly. The involvement of foreign
investors disseminates information better hence leads to more efficient market.
Richards (2004) analyze data of six Asian emerging equity markets and found two
interesting findings. The trading behavior of foreign investors was largely
influenced by the return in global market that is positive feedback trading. The
price impact associated with foreign investors trading was much large than
estimated earlier.
2.1 Determinants of FII Investment
2.1.1 Impact cost
One of the pre-requisites for an investor to be able to comfortably trade frequently
in the market (to reconstitute the investment portfolio) is the ability to do so
comfortably in a market without having to suffer a great transaction cost. In other
words, it requires the market to be liquid. Financial foreign shareholders have
financial focus and lay emphasis on liquidity, argue Coffee (1991) and Aguilera
and Jackson (2003). Liquidity, in this context, means the ability of the market to
absorb large quantities of trade without a heavy transaction cost. The transaction
cost, here, would mean not the fixed costs like brokerage, depository chares etc.
but the cost that is attributable to lack of market liquidity. Since these costs are
different in different countries and also vary across the stocks listed in the same
countrys bourses, it could be one of the important considerations for the Foreign
Portfolio Investors.
2.1.2 Market Return
The basic rationale for the international capital flows is the rate of return which is
higher in a foreign market compared to the domestic market. Capital flows across
the geographical boundaries of the countries is mainly to enhance the productivity
and efficiency of capital at the global level. Hence the rate of return should
certainly explain the choice of a particular stock for investment by the FIIs.
Mohanty (1998) has found that the institutional investors as a group have invested
in companies with good financial performance. Clark and Berko (1996) show a
positive contemporaneous relation between equity flows and stock returns using
monthly data for Mexico. The study has used the market return of the Nifty
companies stock as the average of the market return for the 3 months June-August
2004, as it is reported by NSE.
Gordon and Gupta (2003) analyzed the factors affecting portfolio equity flows
into India. The analysis has shown that, the magnitude of flows was smaller in
India compared to other emerging markets and also less volatile than other
emerging markets. Portfolio flows were determined by both domestic and
external factors. Among external factors Libor was prominent and in domestic
factors credit ratings and lagged returns were important determinants of
portfolio flows. In quantitative terms both domestic and external factors were
found to be equally important in determining portfolio flows.
Batra (2003) examined FII trading behavior and returns in Indian equity market
based on daily and monthly data. The study has found trend chasing and
positive feedback trading by FIIs on daily basis at an aggregate level. But no
such evidence was found in monthly basis. Based on the impact of trading
imbalance, study concluded that bias of FIIs do not have destabilizing impact
on the equity market.
Chakrabarti (2001) examined the nature and causes of FII flows to India. The
study has found FII inflows were highly correlated with equity returns in India
and argued that FII flows are effects of returns rather than the cause of it. The
study also argued that, FIIs do not seem to have informational disadvantage
compared to local investors. It was found that Asian crisis resulted in a regime
shift and since then domestic equity returns became the single most important
determinant of FII flows to India.
Mukherjee et al. (2002) examined the daily flows of FIIs investment in Indian
stock market. The study has found that domestic equity returns was the most
important factor in influencing the FIIs investment flows into the country and
FIIs investment flows do not have significant impact on returns. FIIs sale and
net flows were significantly affected by the performance of the equity market
whereas FIIs purchase was not responsible for such a performance. The study
has also found that, FIIs investment flows were highly auto correlated.
Stanley Morgan (2002) has examined that FIIs have played a very important
role in building up Indias forex reserves, which have enabled a host of
economic reforms. Secondly, FIIs are now important investors in the countrys
economic growth despite sluggish domestic sentiment. The Morgan Stanley
report notes that FII strongly influence short-term market movements during
bear markets. However, the correlation between returns and flows reduces
during bull markets as other market participants raise their involvement
reducing the influence of FIIs. Research by Morgan Stanley shows that the
correlation between foreign inflows and market returns is high during bear and
weakens with strengthening equity prices due to increased participation by
other players.
Suresh Babu and Prabheesh (2008) examined the causal relationship between
foreign institutional investment and stock returns. The study has found bi
directional causality between FIIs investment and stock returns. FIIs investment
flows were more stock return driven.
Thenmozhi and Kumar (2009) examined the dynamic interaction between
mutual fund flows and security returns and between mutual fund flows and
volatility. They found a positive contemporaneous relationship between stock
market returns and mutual fund flows measured as stock purchases and sales.
The study has found that mutual funds flows are significantly influenced by
returns but returns were not influenced by mutual fund flows. The study has
also identified a strong positive relationship between stock market volatility and
mutual fund flows.
Some of the studies reviewed in this section belong to early part of 2000. They
are the initial periods in the development of institutional investment. It gives
enough justification to have revisit the pattern of institutional investment. The
studies of Suresh Babu and Prabheesh (2008), and Thenmozhi and Kumar
(2009) do belong to the latest period and have addressed the primary objective
of the present study individually i.e. examining the relationship between returns
and institutional investment as represented by FIIs and MFs. But, both studies
have considered only one estimation window. In the present study an attempt is
made to analyze the relationship between institutional investments and market
return over a period of time by dividing the study to cover different phases in
the market.
2.3 Overview of Indian Stock Market
Stock markets refer to a market place where investors can buy and sell stocks. The
price at which each buying and selling transaction takes is determined by the
market forces (i.e. demand and supply for a particular stock. A stock exchange
includes an association of persons or firms to regulate and supervise all
transactions, rules, regulations and standard practices to govern all market
dealings, authorized stock brokers and an exchange floor where stock brokers or
their approved agents meet during fixed business hours to buy and sell securities.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is the regulatory body of the
stock market. It gives rules and regulation to control the stock exchanges. These
rules and regulation are called the stock market reforms. To study the stock market
reforms in detail, we have to study the concepts of capital market in detail firstly.
The financial securities deal with the capital market, which include primary market
and secondary market. The primary market is that part of capital market that deals
with the issuance of new securities. Primary market issue can be classified in to
initial public offer, right issue and preferential issue. The secondary market is the
financial market for trading of securities that have already been issued in initial
private or public offering. Securities initially issued in the primary market by
companies are traded on the secondary market.
2.3.1. History of Indian Stock Market
The earliest records of security dealings in India are somewhat obscure. The East
India Company was the dominant institution in the countrys economy and it is
presumed that transactions in its loan securities first began in the eighteenth
century. By the 1830's, shares of banks and cotton companies were actively traded
in Bombay. Though the list of tradable securities kept increasing there were only
half a dozen brokers recognized by banks and merchants during the 1840s and
1850s. The number of brokers increased to about 250 shortly thereafter, when a
true 'share mania' took place in India. The stock boom was the result of a
disruption in the cotton supply from the United States to Britain due to the
American Civil War. Later, in 1875, the Stock Exchange of Mumbai (BSE) was
established as "The Native Share and Stockbrokers Association". The BSE is the
oldest exchange in Asia. The BSE has evolved over the years and is currently the
largest stock exchange in the country accounting for one third of trading volume
and the largest share of listings and market capitalization. In the 1980s, the number
of exchanges grew dramatically and today there are 23 recognized stock exchanges
in the country. In addition to the BSE, the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd.
(NSE) and the Inter-connected Stock Exchange of India (ISE) are significant in
terms of market capitalization and trading value. The NSE was incorporated in
1992 and in 1994 began operations in the Wholesale Debt Market (WDM) and the
equities segment. Trading of derivative instruments was introduced on the
exchange in 2000. ISE is a national-level exchange providing trading, clearing,
settlement, risk management and surveillance support to the inter-connected
market system. Fifteen regional stock exchanges are currently linked through ISE
linkage and connectivity to all the participating exchanges to widen their market.
2.3.2National Stock Exchange
On the basis of the recommendations of high powered Pherwani Committee, the
National Stock Exchange was incorporated in 1992 by Industrial Development
Bank of India, Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India, Industrial
Finance Corporation of India, all Insurance Corporations, selected commercial
banks and others. NSE provides exposure to investors in two types of markets,
namely: Wholesale debt market and Capital market .Wholesale Debt Market is
similar to money market operations, debt market operations involve institutional
investors and corporate bodies entering into transactions of high value in financial
instruments like treasury bills, government securities, etc. NSE has some positive
points such as fully automated screen-based trading mechanism, Strictly follows
the principle of an order-driven market, trading members are linked through a
communication network, this network allows them to execute trade from their
offices, the prices at which the buyer and seller are willing to transact will appear
on the screen, when the prices match the transaction will be completed and a
confirmation slip will be printed at the office.
2.3.5 There are some other reforms and their effects on FIIs also mentioned
below
1. Limit of investment by FIIs increased from 49% to the limit of sectoral cap for
FDI with the approval of the board of directors & the shareholders. FIIs
investments in sectors like hotels and tourism, petroleum, air, roads, highways, port
etc. can be up to 100%. These reforms increase the profit of FIIs.
2. After the year 2007, FIIs are permitted to entering to the short selling
transactions only in accordance with the specified by SEBI. This would prohibit
the market manipulation.
3. Now no transaction could be carried forward and the transaction in securities
would be only through stock broker is granted a certificate by SEBI.
4. After the year 2007 FIIs are permitted to invest US $ 3.2 billion in Govt.
Securities.
5. Internet trading promotes competition and improves investor service.
6. Rolling settlement has a positive impact on the FIIs. This would increase the
flexibility in transacting of the institutional investors. Because of it the speculative
volumes reduce which was very high in India.
7. FIIs are permitted up to 23% in infrastructure companies in the security market
viz. stock exchanges, deposits
Hypothesis
Null Hypothesis (Ho): The BSE Index does not rise with the increase in FIIs
investment.
Alternate Hypothesis (Ha): The various BSE Sensex rises with the increase in
FIIs investment.
Scope of the study is very broader and covers both the values of BSE Sensex and
its comparison with foreign institutional investments. But, study is only going to
cover foreign investments in form of equity. The time period is limited from
January 2008 to December 2011 as it will give exact impact in both the bullish and
bearish trend.
The study will provide a very clear picture of the impact of foreign institutional
investors on BSE Sensex. It will also describe the market trends due to FIIs inflow
and outflow.
The study would be helpful for further descriptive studies on the ideas that will be
explored. Moreover, it would be beneficial to gain knowledge regarding foreign
institutional investments, their process of registration and their impact on BSE
sensex.
5. Research Methodology:
Research methodology is the arrangement of conditions for collection and analysis
of data in a manner that aims to combine relevance to the research purpose with
economy in procedure. Research methodology is the conceptual structure within
which research is conducted. It constitutes the blueprint for the collection
measurement and analysis of the data.
There may be many other factors on which a stock index may depend i.e.
Government policies, budgets, bullion market, inflation, economic and political
condition of the country, FDI, Re./Dollar exchange rate etc. But for this study I
have selected only one independent variable i.e. FII. This study uses the concept of
correlation and regression to study the relationship between FII and stock index.
The FII started investing in Indian capital market from September 1992when the
Indian economy was opened up in the same year. Their investments include equity
only. The sample data of FIIs investments consists of monthly average from
January 2008 to December 2011.
Sampling Unit
As this study revolves around the foreign institutional investment and BSE
Sensex.So for the sampling unit is confined to only the Indian stock market.
5.4 Sampling Technique:Convenient Sampling: Study conducted on the basis of availability of the Data and
requirement of the project. Study requires the events that have impact on the Indian
stock market.
Correlation: This analysis tool and its formulas measure the relationship between
two data sets that are scaled to be independent of the unit of measurement. The
population correlation calculation returns the covariance of two data sets divided
by the product of their standard deviations. We can use the Correlation tool to
determine whether two ranges of data move together that is, whether large
values of one set are associated with large values of the other (positive correlation),
whether small values of one set are associated with large values of the other
(negative correlation), or whether values in both sets are unrelated (correlation near
zero).
6. Analysis
6.1 Correlations
Correlations
SensexVal
Pearson Correlation
SensexVal
Sig. (2-tailed)
Pearson Correlation
.403**
.005
FII
FII
48
48
**
.403
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
.005
48
48
Inferences:1. As the Pearson correlation coefficient between FII and Sensex Value is
good and positive (.403) and the p value is .005, this implies that null
hypothesis is rejected.
2. So we can infer that Foreign Institutional Investments have significant
correlation with Sensex.
Regression:
Model Summaryb
Model
R Square
.403a
Adjusted R
Square
Estimate
.162
.144
2894.337
Coefficientsa
Model
Unstandardized
Standardized
Coefficients
Coefficients
Std.
Sig.
FII
15412.41
Beta
.100
465.
399
.033
.403
Correlations
Interval for B
Error
(Constant)
95.0% Confidence
33.117
.000
2.985
.005
Lower
Upper
Zero-
Bound
Bound
order
14475.6
16349.21
17
.033
.167
.403
Partial
.403
Part
.403
Charts
The histogram shows the residuals of the Sensex variable. Residual is what remains after
independent co-efficient have been determined. This curve is not a normal curve which
implies that some part of histogram is outside the normal curve. This implies that residual
is more after carrying out the regression analysis.
The normal p-p plot of regression standardized residual shows the residual values
all hugging the line of least squares or the line of greatest fit. These values must be
close to the line of least squares which is an idealized plot. So in this plot there is
some deviation.
The scatter plot shows the distribution of data which must be randomly distributed.
If the data is not randomly distributed then we have heteroscedasticity present in
our data which implies that we dont have confidence in standard error associated
with our database.
Frequencies
Sensex Values : Statistics
Valid
Missing
Mean
48
0
16024.71
451.553
Median
16725.50
Std. Deviation
3128.453
Variance
Skewness
9787215.232
-.996
.343
Kurtosis
.373
`
Std. Error of Kurtosis
Range
.674
11954
Minimum
8607
Maximum
20561
The mean value of Sensex over the period of 2008-2011 is approx. 16000,
though there is a lot of movement i.e. deviation from the mean (3128.45).
Also the value has varied from a minimum of 8607 to maximum of 20561.
Valid
Missing
Mean
48
0
6135.239583
1822.6993176
2795.300000
Std. Deviation
12628.0312998
Variance
159467174.509
Skewness
Std. Error of Skewness
Kurtosis
1.071
.343
1.670
.674
65888.0000
Minimum
-17205.4000
Maximum
48682.6000
According to the research the mean value of FII over the period of 20082011 is approx. Rs. 6135 crores, though there is a lot of movement i.e.
deviation from the mean (12628.3).
Also the value has varied from a minimum of -17205 to maximum of 48682.
The reason for such a movement is because of the economic slowdown
during the period of 2008-09.
FY - 2008
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
SensexVal
FII
39479
39539
39600
39661
39722
39783
39448
39508
39569
39630
39692
39753
-5000
-10000
-15000
-20000
Interpretation:
After plotting the values of BSE Sensex of the year 2008 and the values of
respective FIIs, we find that the values of FIIs and Sensex are interrelated
in some manner.
When there is a downfall in FIIs the value of Sensex also comes down and
vice-versa.
But there is some deviations or exceptions to this were found. For ex from
Jan to Feb 2008 the value of FIIs has been increased and Sensex value have
been decreased, which indicates that there has been some other factors
which effects Sensex values.
The period of 2008 has been a period of tremor for the Indian Markets, the
Indian Markets plunged after making high of 18242 in Jan. 2008 to as low as
9903 in Dec. 2008 almost decrease of around 50%.
FY - 2009
60000
50000
40000
30000
#REF!
20000
Sense
#REF!
Sens
ex
FII
10000
0
39814 39845 39873 39904 39934 39965 39995 40026 40057 40087 40118 40148
-10000
Interpretation
After plotting the values of BSE Sensex of the year 2009 and the values of
respective FIIs, we find that the values of FIIs and Sensex are not
following a particularly related to each other.
Sensex in this year has been continuously increased; on the contrary FIIs
values undergo some variations. This indicates that there have been some
other factors which affect Sensex values.
Sensex has shown some recovery from the past recessionary period of 2008.
FII
FY - 2010
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
#REF!
#REF!
10000
Sens
ex
FII
5000
0
40179 40210 40238 40269 40299 40330 40360 40391 40422 40452 40483 40513
-5000
-10000
Interpretation:
The period of 2010 has showed continuity in uptrend in the markets.
The BSE Sensex has surged to 20561 as on 31 st Dec. 2010 from 16356 in
Jan. 2010 gaining 4195 points and the inflows from the FII's have been
robust during this period.
The total FII inflow during this period has been to the tune of Rs. 179674
crs.
Sen
FII
FY-2011
25000
20000
15000
10000
Axis Title
#REF!
#REF!
5000
0
Nov-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Sens
ex
FII
-5000
-10000
Axis Title
Interpretation :
The period of 2011 has shown a mix trend in sensex values.
From Jan to March 2011 March it has been decreased and then follow a
continuous downtrend and reached 15454,and the inflows from the FII's
have also been not so good during this period.
The total FII inflow during this period has been to the tune of Rs. 28071 crs.
There had been 2 months in this period where FIIs inflow is maximum
i.e.10652 & 21872 in the months of July and December.
Sen
FII
SensexVal
25000
20000
15000
SensexVal
10000
5000
Interpretation:
Above line chart shows the Sensex values from Jan08 to Dec 2011.
There has been strong downfall in the value of Sensex during the year 2008,
because of the global recession.
In the next year the Sensex has been recovered much from the recessionary
pressures of 2008, in the month of Dec 2010 it has reached the value of
20560 which was its life time high.
Again in the year of 2011 it starts declining and reached the level of 15454
in Dec 2011.
FII
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
-10000
-20000
-30000
Interpretaion:
Above line chart shows different inflows and outflows of Foreign
Institutional Investments in India.
Foreign investors have been continuously investing in India because only in
the year of 2008 outflow of investments were there otherwise there were
inflows in the country.
The highest inflow of foreign capital was in the month of Dec 09 which was
around 48682 crores.
FII
FY 2008-2011
60000
50000
40000
30000
SensexVal
20000
FII
10000
0
-10000
-20000
-30000
Interpretation:
The above chart shows the relative effect of Foreign Institutional
Investments on BSE Sensex from Jan 2007 to Dec 2011 we can see that
how the FII investments have affected the movement in the Indian Markets.
Also the study supports this fact as the correlation between the two is
positive (.403) Thus, FII investments play an important role in our Indian
Markets.
This being an important factor should always be tracked upon. the period of
2008 was a period of pain due to economic crisis in the global economy, this
recessionary period had severe impact on the Indian Markets too as the
global investors sell-off was seen.
The period of 2009 saw simultaneous recovery due to reassurance by the
Government in the form of relief packages and the recovery in the economy
itself.
The period of 2010 has been the continuity of the recovery for the Indian
Markets as we are a growing economy with lots of potential.
The GDP of India is on constant rise, the business prospects and political
stability all are attracting the foreign investors to be a part of the Indian
Markets.
FINDINGS:
After the analysis following are the findings of the study:
1) There is a positive and significant correlation (.403) between Foreign
Institutional Investments and the value of sensex, which states that FIIs inflows
and outflows, has significant impact on BSE Sensex.
2) Determinants of the FIIs are Impact cost, Non promoter holding, Market
return.
3) In bearish trend of 2008 the volatility in Indian Stock indices due to FIIs is more
than in bullish trend of 2009. No doubt FII inflow is more in 2009. The domestic
investors were also playing an important role in 2009 but in 2008 FIIs is
influencing market more as domestic investors are not in the market.
Recommendations:
After the analysis of the project study, following recommendations can be made:
1) Simplifying procedures and relaxing entry barriers for business activities and
providing investor friendly laws and tax system for foreign investors.
Limitation:
There are certain limitations in the study which is to be conducted. Some of these
limitations are discussed below:1. There can be some other determinants which may affect the stock market
volatility, but not taken into account in this study.
2. The data to be analyzed will be collected for a period of four years only which is
a short interval when analyzing the impact of FIIs on Indian Stock Exchange.
3. As the data is to be analyzed on monthly basis so it may lead to some error if it
is analyzed on weekly or daily analysis as this analysis provides more data and
hence better analysis can be done.