. .

( )
2,3,5,6,7,9 10.



.


,
.

.


.


.

2:
2.1

: (i) , (ii)
, (iii) , (iv)
, (v) , (vi)

(vii) .

, .
(short
term) (long term).
1
2
.
,
. ,
.

(target variables).
.

(price level),
(consumer price index),
(GDP deflator) ..


, .
2.2
(full employment)
,

, ,
.

, .
;
;
;
.




.

(Ut)

(Et):

U =L E
t

(2.1)

(ut)
:

U
u =L E =
L
L
t

(2.2)

14
,
,
, .
()
() .
,
( ) ,
(Et)
(Ut):

E t = U t

(2.3)

(2.1), (2.2) (2.3)

:
n

E t = U t ( L t U t ) = U t L t = ( + )U t u t =

(2.4)

: , (0,1) :
utn

=
2 0
( + )

utn

=
0
( + ) 2
(2.5.1) &
(2.5.2)

(2.4)
(natural rate of unemployment),
,
.

-
.
,
.

n
( et ) :
etn = 1 u tn =

+ (2.6)

etn
etn

=
<
0
=
>0
2
2

(
+
)

(
+
)

:
&

, (NLF).
-2.1
:

E
1

2
5
4

3
6

NF
L

-2.1: .
1. .
2. .
3. .
4. .
5. .
6. .
(1) (2)
(4) (5)
.

(t):
t= (1)+(2)-[(4)+(3)] (2.7)


(1)+(6) (3)+(4):
Ut= (1)+(6)-[(3)+(4)] (2.8)

t U t



(i) ,(ii) ,(iii)
(iv) .


.

.
(i)
(frictional unemployment)


.

,
.

.
(ii)

(seasonal unemployment)
.
, .

,
.
,
, .
(iii)

() (*). ,
(t)
.

-2.2.
t1
Y max
( t1 ).
t2
Y min
( t2 ).

(depression). ,

(recovery), t3
>

max

max

= Yt max
<
3

Y
Y
( t3 t1
).
...

Yt

Yt1max
Y*
Yt

Yt2min

t1

t2

t3

t
-2.2

.

[period (T)].
-2.2 =t1t3
.

.
,
, .
,
, .

[amplitude (A)] .

,

] (*)
(ut)
(un).

(cyclical unemployment)

(;).

.
(iv)

(structural unemployment)


.

,
[

( )].
,

, .

.
,
,
, .

.
,
Okun.
: Okun


, ,
[potential output
*
( Yt )]. ,
(ut) (un) .

*
ut = utn
Yt = Yt .

n
*
ut ut Yt Yt .
n
( ut > ut ),
,
*
( Yt < Yt ).
n
( ut < ut )
*
( Yt > Yt ).

n
*
n
ut ut & Yt Yt , ut ut
Y Y*
t t . Arthur Okun , ,

ut utn

)
Y Y*
( t t ) :
Yt Yt *
= (ut utn )
*
Yt
(2.9)


,
u un
1%. =0.4 t t =1%
Yt Yt *
= 0.4%
Yt*
,
1%,
0.4%. (2.9)
-2.3.
Yt Yt*
Yt*

n
& ut ut .

Okun
:
g y = g y* ut

(2.10)

:
gy =

(Yt Yt 1 )
Yt 1 : .

g y* =

(Yt* Yt *1 )
Yt *1
: .

ut = ut ut 1

: .

Yt

Yt*

Yt
= 1 (ut utn )
*
Yt

0
ut utn

-2.3

gy

g y*

g y = g y* (ut ut 1 )

0
ut

-2.4

(2.10)
u
=
u
t 1 ut = 0 ),
( t

g = g y*
(growth) ( y
).

u
=
1%
1% ( t
)
g
( y )
g*
( y ) %.
g y* = 4%
g = g y* ut = 4% 0.5% = 3,5%
, =0.5 ut = 1% y
.
(2.10) -2.4
,

10

gy

ut

: Phillips


n
*
, ut Yt ,

u un
( t t )
e
( t t ).
u > utn ,
( t
.

.
n
[wages ( Wt )] ut ut ,
:
gW = (ut utn )

(2.11)

:
gW =

>0:
.

Wt Wt Wt 1
=
Wt 1
Wt 1 :

(2.11) 1958
A.W. Phillips
( ut ) .
L

( St )
.
:
StL =

Wt Lt
Yt Pt (2.12)

Wt : , Lt :
(Labor) , Yt : Pt :
(prices).
(2.12)
ln StL = ln Wt ln Yt ln Pt
(t) :
1 dStL
1 dWt 1 dYt 1 dPt
d (ln StL ) d (ln Wt ) d (ln Yt ) d (ln Pt )
=

L
St dt Wt dt Yt dt Pt dt
dt
dt
dt
dt

11

StL+1 StL Wt +1 Wt Yt +1 Yt Pt +1 Pt
StL StL1 Wt Wt 1 Yt Yt 1 Pt Pt 1
=

StL
Wt
Yt
Pt
StL1
Wt 1
Yt 1
Pt 1
StL Wt Yt Pt
=

StL1 Wt 1 Yt 1 Pt 1 (2.13)

StL
=0
L
S
t

1
), (2.13) 2:
(
gW = gY + t

(2.14)

:
gW =

Wt
Wt 1 :

gY =

Yt
Yt 1 :

Pt
Pt 1 : ,
.
t =

( gY = 0 ), (2.11) (2.14)
:
t = (ut utn )

(2.15)

(2.15) Phillips

t
= < 0
ut

u
( ) ( t
).
=1,
n
( ut ut ).
Phillips
1960
(stagflation),
.
Phillips
,
1970.
Phillips,

,
.

12

,

.


n
( ut ut ) [expected
inflation]. (Friedman & Phelps)
Phillips,
(2.15), :
t = te (ut utn )

(2.16)

(2.16)
Phillips (expectations augmented Phillips curve).

: 1
Y > Yt *
),
( t
n
( ut < ut ) (2.16),
> te
). 2
( t
*
( Yt < Yt ),

n
( ut > ut ) (2.16),
e
( t < t ).

,
:
te = t

(2.17)

(2.17) (2.16)
:
t = te (ut utn ) 0 = (ut utn ) ut = utn

(2.18)

(2.17) (2.18)
Phillips (long run Phillips curve).

( ut , t ) (2.17)
(2.18).



.

,

13

M tS M t
=
P
Pt ) ( kY * ):
( t
M t = kY * Pt

, k > 0 (2.19)

(2.19)
:
M t 1 = kY * Pt 1

(2.20)

(2.19)
(2.20) :
M t kY *Pt
=

M t = kY * Pt M t = (kY * Pt ) M t = kY *Pt M t 1 kY * Pt 1

M t Pt
=
t = t
M t 1 Pt 1
(2.21)

t =

M t M t 1
M t 1 :

Pt Pt 1
Pt 1 :
().
t =

%
.
, ,
.
,
1=3%,
(1=1=3%).
t=2
1=3% 2=8%, t 2 8%
(2=2=8%).
,
t=1
e
, = = 1 =3%
1

u1=un=5%.
Phillips LPC
3 Phillips SPC1.
. LPC
, SPC1
4

14

1e

=3% =5/2 ( -2.5).

LPC

A
B

SPC2

SPC1

0
3

ut

,
.
(static or
naive expectations) :
te = t 1

(2.22)

t=1 (5,3)
Phillips SPC1,
t=2 1=3% 2=8%
. (2.22)

e
e
2 = 1 = 3% . 2 2 = 8% 3% = 5% > 0
n
( u2 u )
. (2.16) :

5
u n =5%
2 e2 = (u2 u n ) 5 = (u2 un )
n

u
=

2
<
0
u2 = 3%
2
2

,

, 5 SPC,
(5,3) (3,8).
,
.
,

(3,8) (5,8).
Phillips SPC2,
e
= 8% , LPC. ,

15

(
),
.


(rational expectations).

:
te = Et 1 ( t ) = t

(2.23)

,
t=1
[1(2)=2=8%].

(5,3)
(5,8).

: 1
Phillips,

. 2

( ),
(money neutrality).
:


e te1 = ( t 1 te1 )
, : t
, 0<e<1.

2.3


6:
t =

Pt Pt 1
Pt 1
(2.24)

(t<0), .
(deflation).

.
(;).

16

:
i) ,

.
ii)
,
,

.
iii) ,

.
,
(
).
, ,
.
iv) 7,
,

.
v) ,
.
(St=It=t)
.
vi) ,

.

. ()
().
(GDP deflator)

.


,
.
1
(t =Y*), 2
, ,
, ,
, , 3

17

.
,
,

(Mt/Pt) (VtYt=kYt) .
, t =Y*
.
(Mt)

(Pt).
(t)
(t).
,

.
:
M t M t 1
=
t
M t 1
t M t = M 0 (1 + ) (2.25)

0: t=0

:
Pt Pt 1
=
t
Pt 1
t Pt = P0 (1 + ) (2.26)

P0: t=0.
(2.25) (2.26)
:

Mt
Pt

M 0 (1 + )t
M
M 1+
t = 0

=
t
Pt
P0 1 + (2.27)
(2.26) P0 (1 + )
(2.25)

M0/P0: t=0.

(1,1)

(2.28) :

+
+
1+
1+
=
= (1 + ) ( ) j = (1 + )[( )0 + ( )1 + ( ) j ] =
1 + 1 ( )
j =0
j =2
+
+
1+
= (1 + )[(1 ) + ( ) j ]
= 1 + + (1 + ) ( ) j
1+
j =2
j =2
(2.28)

&, . , (0, 0.1) 8 0

( ) j 0j 2 , (2.27) (2.28) :

18


+
Mt M0
M
M
=
[1 + + (1 + ) ( ) j ]t t 0 (1 + g rm )t
Pt
P0
Pt
P0
j =2
(2.29)

grm=-:
.
(2.29)
,
,
,
:
g rm = 0 = 0 =

(2.30)

.

Fisher
.
) Fisher

:
Kt
K
= (1 + rte ) t 1
e
Pt
Pt 1 (2.31)
t-1: t-1 ( ),
e
Pt-1: ( ) ( ), rt :
, t-1/Pt-1:
e
t-1 & K t / Pt :

t .
,
t :
K t = (1 + it ) K t 1

(2.32)

it : .
t 1 ,
, (t)
t 1
9:
Pt e = (1 + te ) Pt 1

(2.33)

19

te

(2.32)(2.33) (2.31)
:

(1 + it ) K t 1
K
1 + it
= (1 + rte ) t 1 1 + rte =
e
1 + te (2.34)
Pt 1
(2.33) (1 + t ) Pt 1

(2.32)

2.31

e
e
rt , t (1,1)
(1 + te )


:

1 + it = (1 + rte )(1 + te ) 1 + it = 1 + rt e + te + rte te it = rte + te

(2.35)

(2.35) Fisher (Fishers identity)

, ,
(ex ante)
.
e
e
(rt = rt & t = t )
Fisher :
it = rt + t (2.36)
)
,

, (seignorage)
.
.
,

,
.
(t)
, (2.25)
:
(2.30)
t
= t = t 1
t 1
(2.37)

(Pt) :
t

= t 1
Pt
Pt (2.38.1)

20

t 1
Pt
Pt 1 (2.38.2)

(2.38.1) [(2.38.2)]
(inflation tax)
(t/Pt) ,
(), ,
.
,
.

: )
)

.
(i) (ii)
. .
(i)
(demand-pull inflation) ,
,
(*).
-2.6
.
,
i
- (*, 1 )
,
IS1 LM1, 1.
(AS)
(AD1), 1,
- (*,P1).

21

it
LM2(M/P3)
LM1(M/P1)
E3
E2

i3
i2
E1

i1

IS2
IS1
Y*

Pt

Y2

Yt

AS

A3
P3
P1

A2

A1

AD2
AD1
Y*

Y2

Yt

.

, 12
IS1 IS2 AD1
AD2.
P1 ,
AD1 , (
) 12(=*2).
,
AD2 2
3. ( M ),
P1 P3

22

M
M
( P1 P3 ) LM1
LM2,
.
,

.

.
() ,
,
.

/ .
,

AD .

, .
(ii)
(cost-push inflation)
,
, ,

.

(profit-push inflation),

,
,
.
(wage-push inflation)

,
.

( ),

.
,
,

.
( )
,

23

.

,
,

.


.

:
t = PQ
t t Wt Lt it K t

(2.39)

: , P: ,
W: (L) i: .
(2.39)
(Q) :
t
L
K
W
i
= Pt Wt t it t A t = Pt t t
Qt
Qt
Qt
APLt APK t (2.40)

=/Q: ( ), PL=Q/L:
(average product of labor) APK=Q/K:
(average product of capital).
(2.40)
13:
d ( A t ) dPt APLt d (Wt ) Wt d ( APLt )
d ( t ) dPt
Wt
1 d ( APLt )
1 d (Wt )
=

=
+

2
dt
dt
( APLt ) dt
dt
dt APLt APLt
dt
APLt dt
d ( A t ) dPt
Wt
1 d (Wt )
=
+
[ g APL
]
dt
dt APLt
Wt dt
d ( A t ) dPt
Wt
=
+
( g APL gW )
dt
dt APLt
(2.41)

,

( gW g APL ) ,
dP dt = 0
)
( t
14
.

( gW g APL ),

Wt Pt
( gW g APL )
APL
15
t
.

24

.
.
-.

-. ,
,
.

,

.
,
...
(iii)

() , () ,
, , ()
()
,
,
( )
.

,
,
.


.
2.4
[Balance of Payments (BP)]


, . ,

,
. ,


.
.

- (double entry accounting).

25

(credit entry),

(debit entry).
.
. ,


,

16 (countertrade).

, , .

.


:
(i) : [Trade Balance (TB)]
( Xg)
(Mg), 17:
TB = Xg Mg (2.42)

f.o.b (free on board),

,
c.i.f (cost insurance freight),
.
(ii) , : ,
[Balance on goods, services & incomes (BIGS)]

() , () , , ,
, ( ), ,
() , ,
, , .
:
BIGS = TB + ( X S M S ) + ( X i M i ) (2.43)
s: Exports of services, Ms: Imports of services, Xi: Exports of incomes &
Mi: Imports of incomes.
,

[Net Exports (NX)]
:
Y = C + I + G + NX (2.44)

26

: (real GDP), C: (consumption), I:

(Investments), G: (Government Expenditures).
(2.44)
:
NX = Y C G I NX = (Y C T ) + (T G ) I NX = S p + SG I NX = S I = BIGS
(2.45)

Sp = Y C T

: (private savings),
S = S P + SG
(government savings)
:
.

SG = T G

(2.45)
() , S>I (S<I),
,
(BIGS=NX>0) [ (BIGS=NX<0)].
(iii) : [Balance of
Invisibles (BI)]
() , () ()
(unilateral transfers), ,
, , (. .),
. :
BI = ( X S M S ) + ( X i M i ) + ( X tr M tr ) (2.46)
tr: tr:
.
(iv) :
[Balance of Current Account (CA)] (TB)
(BI):
CA = TB + BI (2.47)
, (2.42),(2.46)
(2.47)
CA = ( X g M g ) + ( X S M S ) + ( M i M i ) + ( X tr M tr )

(2.48)

( X tr = M tr ), (2.45) (2.48)
:
(2.48) CA = TB + ( X S M S ) + ( X i M i ) + ( X tr M tr ) CA = BIGS CA = NX = S I

(2.49)

() ,
S>I (S<I),
(CA>0) [ (CA<0)].
v) : [Balance of

27

Capital Accounts (KA)] (capital inflows)

() (capital outflows)
(), :
KA = X K M K

(2.50)

,

,
.

,
.
,
( k>Mk >0)
,
(< <0)
.
( ,
)
(
).
vi) : [Balance of
International Transactions (BP)]
(CA) ():
BP = CA + KA (2.51)

BP = ( X g M g ) + ( X S M S ) + ( X i M i ) + ( X tr M tr ) + ( X K M K )

(2.52)

,

.

( R ),
,
:
CA + KA R = 0 (2.53)

.
,
(2.51).

28

,
,
.
($).
(. ) (. ) ,
,
(), () .

(i) (spot foreign exchange market)
(ii) (forward exchange market)

[spot exchange rate (lt)].
.
(. 1$ = 0,756)

[. 1 =(1/0,756) = 1,323$].

.
,

.
(et)
(et) .

.


.
[forward exchange rate (ft)
.

(lt) [Purchasing Parity Power
theory (PPP)]. ' (Pt)
(Ptf)
:
et Pt f = Pt (2.54)

, 100$
. 100.
- 1 (lt=1/$)
.
100

29

..
; '

. lt=1/$ Ptf=100$
ltPtf=1/$x100$=100.
.
( ) .
(2.54)
(lt) .
(2.54)

et Pt f = Pt ln lt + ln Pt f = ln Pt

d (ln lt ) d (ln Pt f ) d (ln Pt )

1 det
1 dP f
1 dPt
+
=

+ f t =

dt
dt
dt
lt dt Pt dt
Pt dt

et +1 et Pt +f1 Pt f Pt +1 Pt _ _
+
=

et
Pt f
Pt

et et 1 Pt f Pt f1 Pt Pt 1
l

+
=
t = t tf (2.55)
f
et 1
Pt 1
Pt 1
lt 1

(lt/lt-1)
1

(t) (tf).
(tf=0) (2.55)
:
lt
= t (2.56)
lt 1

,
() 10%
10%.
(2.54)
:
lt

Pt f
= 1(2.57)
Pt

(2.57)
[real exchange rate(t)]
(terms of trade)
(et) (Ptf/Pt),
:

30

t = lt

Pt f
(2.58)
Pt

:
d (ln t ) d (ln et ) d (ln Pt f ) d (ln Pt )
ln t = ln et + ln Pt
=
+

dt
dt
dt
dt

e
t = t + tf t (2.59)
t 1 et 1
f

,
/
/ .
(t=0),
(tf>0) / (lt/lt-1>0)
(t/t-1>0),
2
.
(t>0 lt/lt-1=tf=0)
(t/t-1<0),

(NXt).

,
(effective exchange rates),
.

:
n

ir e

*
i it

et* =

i =1
n

we

(2.60)

*
i i0

i =1

e*t=1/et :
, wi: (weights)
i, i=1,...,n
t 0 t
.

.

31

() (Uncovered
Interest Parity). (i)
(ii) () ()
,

.
it = it f +

Et (et +1 ) et
(2.61)
lt

lt:
(),
ltf:
,
Et (et+1):
t+1 t
et: .
(2.61) ()

(
). it-itf-[Et (lt+1)-lt]/lt>0(<0)
()
.
(2.61)
et =

Et (et +1 )
(2.62)
1 + it it f

(lt)

[Et (lt+1)] it-itf.
(i) [Et (lt+1)]
(ii) () (iii)
()
(et).
(Mt), (r)
(tl) ,
(it), .
()
, ,
(it)
(et)3 (2.62). Fisher
:

32

it = r + te (2.63)

(r)
/ (tl)

(lt).

,
.
, ,
(et) :
(i) ,
(Pt/Ptf). (Pt) [
(Ptf)] ,
(), ()
(
)
() .
(ii) (barriers to entry)
(import duties) (import quotas)
.
4 .
(iii) .

,
(
).
(iv) .
()
() .
,
() [World Trade
Organisation (WTO)],
, ,
,
.

2.5

33

, , .

""
.

(i)
(ii)
(iii)

...
.

, () () .

() :
.
,
(), (L)
[Terra(T)]. ,
i (Yi)
:
Yi = f ( K i , Li , Ti )(2.64)

:
dYi f (.) dK i f (.) dLi f (.) dTi
=
+
+

dt
K i dt
Li dt
Ti dt

1 dYi
1 dK i
1 dLi
1 dTi
Yi = MPki
K i + MPLi
Li + MPTi
Ti (2.65)
Yi dt
K i dt
Li dt
Ti dt

:
MPKi = f ( K i , Li , Ti ) / K i

i .
MPLi = f ( K i , Li , Ti ) / Li

: i

34

MPTi = f ( K i , Li , Ti ) / Ti

: i

.
1
,
, 2
(r), (w) (l)
(w=wi, r=ri & l=li i=1,...,N)
3
.

:
MPKi =

ri
r
= (2.66)
Pi Pi

MPLi =

wi w
= (2.67)
Pi Pi

MPTi =

li
l
= (2.68)
Pi Pi

, , :
1 dYi
1 dK i 1 dLi 1 dTi
=
=
=
= (2.69)
Yi dt K i dt
Li dt Ti dt

(2.66)~(2.69) (2.65)
:

aYi =

r
w
l
a
K i + Li + Ti aYi = (rK i + wLi + lTi )
Pi
Pi
Pi
Pi
N

i =1

i =1

i =1

i =1

Yi Pi = rK i + wLi + lTi PY
i i = r K i + w Li + l Ti
rK wL lT
Y = rK + wL + lT
+
+
= 1 s K + s L + sT = 1(2.70)
Y
Y
Y
:
s=

rK
Y : (share of capital)

s=

wL
Y :

s=

lT
Y :
N

K = Ki
i =1

35

L = Li
i =1

T = Ti
i =1

Y = PY
i i
i =1

: ()

(2.70)

. ,
, . ,

.
() :
,
.
.
j
(j=1,2...,J)5, .
j (j)
Yj.
:
J

N j = N1 + N2 + ... + N J = N (2.71)
j =1

&

= Y1 + Y2 + ... + YJ = Y (2.72)

j =1

, Lorenz
(Lorenz Curve) Gini (Gini coefficient).

(j)

. .

N1

Y1

n1

y1

Lorenz

1 ( 1 , 1 )
36

N2

Y2

n2

y2

2 ( 2 , 2 )

N3

Y3

n3

y3

3 ( 3 , 3 )

Nj

Yj

nj

yj

J ( J , J )

Lorenz '
. 2.1
().
,

.

,
()
.
:
n j = 100

Ni
Y
y j = 100 i (2.74)
(2.73)
N
Y
&

,

,
:
J

j = ni (2.75)
j =1

&

j = yi (2.75)
j =1

7 Aj(j,j), j=1,...,J,
-2.7.

(j), 0% 100%,
(j),
0% 100%.

37

-27
Aj (0,0) (100,100),
( )
(j,j)
.
.
j, j=1,...J, Lorenz (
).
Lorenz,
-2.7
. Lorenz (EL)
:

L =

1 J 1
( j j +1 j +1 j )(2.77)
2 j =1

Lorenz
0 (
Lorenz ) 5.000 [(100x100)/2],

38

j).

Gini (G)
Lorenz
OBAj(=5000), :
G=

EL
1
j j
2

EL
(2.78)
5000

EL [0,5000], Gini
8 [0,1].
:
.

(j)

(Nj)

(Yj)

0 ~ 30

214

5080

30 ~ 80

114

4810

80 ~ 100

76

6708

100 ~ 110

20

2500

110

1760

Lorenz
Gini [ . (1993), , 519]
:
Lorenz

.
.

39

(j)

Lorenz

Nj

Yj

nj

yj

214

5080

49.54

24.35

49.54

24.35

1(49.54,2
4.35)

114

4810

26.39

23.06

75.93

47.41

2(75.93,4
7.41)

76

6708

17.59

32.16

93.52

79.57

3(93.52,7
9.57)

20

2500

4.63

11.99

98.15

91.56

4(98.15,9
1.56)

1760

1.85

8.44

100

100

5(100,100
)

432

20858

100

100

Aj(j,j), j=1,...,5,

40

OA1A2A3A4A5 Lorenz
OA5.
(EL)
9 (2.77). J=5

EL =

4
1 4
1 4
(
)
(

j +1 j ) =
j j +1 j +1 j 2

j j +1
2 j =1
j =1
j =1

1
( 1 2 + 2 3 + 3 4 + 5 5 2 1 3 2 4 3 5 4 ) =
2
1
= [(49.54)(47.41) + (75.93)(79.57) + (93.52)(91.56) + (98.15)(100)
2
(75.93)(24.35) (47.41)(93.52) (79.57)(98.15) (91.56)(100)] =
1
1
= (26768.1327 23248.4742) = (3519.6585) L = 1759.53
2
2

(2.78)
Gini
:
G=

EL
1759.83
=
= 0.352
5000
5000

.
2.6

(growth).

,

41

.
,
(economic growth)
.

.


.
>

,

:
i. (per capita GDP)
.
ii. , (t)
(Lt) [capital-labour ratio (kt)], .
iii. .
iv.
(Stl) (Stk)
.
v.
.
vi.


, , ,
.
()
vii.
( - ) ()

.
viii.
.
ix.

.
x.
, ,
, .
.

.
,
.

(endogenous growth models)

42

>
(Yt)
, (Kt)
(Lt), (At).
, :
Yt = F ( K t , Lt , At )(2.79)

.
(efficient)
,

.

(2.79)
(efficiency units)
:
Yt = F ( A1t K t , A2 t Lt )(2.80)

A1t K t : ,

A2t Lt : ,
.
A1t = A2t = At ,
Hicks (Hicks neutral), (2.80)
, ,
:
Yt = F ( At K t , At Lt ) Yt = At F ( K t , Lt )(2.81)
F(.):

2
2
2
2
[ F (.) / K t > 0, F (.) / K t < 0 & F (.) / Lt > 0, F (.) / Lt < 0 ]

. (2.81)
:

43

F (.) dK t F (.) dLt

dYt
dAt
Yt = At F ( K t , Lt )
= F (.)
+ At
+

dt
dt
K
dt
L
dt

t
t
{

{
MPK

MPL
1 dAt MPK dK t MPL dLt
dYt
= At F (.)
+
+
(2.81)
dt
F (.) dt uuuuuur
At dt F (.) dt
MPK 1 dK t
MPL 1 dLt
1 dYt 1 dAt

=
+
+

Yt dt
At dt F (.) / K t K t dt F (.) / Lt Lt dt
1
424
3
1
424
3

StK

StL

Yt t
K t
L
=
+ StK
+ StL t (2.82)
Yt
At
Kt
Lt

Yt/Yt: , At/At:
, Kt/Kt: , Lt/Lt:
, StK & StL:
, ,
10 :
StK =

F (.) K t
MPK
=
(2.83)
K t F (.) APK

StL =

F (.) Lt
MPL
=
(2.84)
Lt F (.) APL

:
MPK = F (.) / K t & MPL = F (.) / K L : (marginal products)

APK = F (.) / K t & APL = F (.) / Lt : (average product)
.
(2.82)
(At/At),
(StK,Kt/Kt) (StLLt/Lt).


11
.
(2.82) 1
(At/At), 2
(StKKt/Kt) 3 (StLLt/Lt).

.
StK+StL=1
().

(2.82)
Ak/Ak:

44

At Yt
K t
L
=
StK
StL t (2.85)
At
Yt
Kt
Lt

Ak/Ak .
(Yt/Yt),
(Kt/Kt) (Lt/Lt),
.
,
At/At

Cobb-Douglas:
Yt = K ta Lt ut (2.86)

,: 12 ut: (residuals)
(2.86) :
d (ln Yt )
d (ln K t )
d (ln Lt ) d (ln ut )
=
+
+

dt
dt
dt
dt
1 dYt
1 dK t
1 dLt 1 dut

=
+
+

Yt dt
K t dt
Lt dt ut dt
ln Yt = ln K t + ln ut

Yt
K t
L
=
+ t + et (2.87)
Yt
Kt
Lt

(2.87)
(OLS).
,
lt
13 .
At/At Robert Solow 1957
Ak/Ak Solow.
>

,

.
,
, ,
.
:
) .

45

) .
(Yt) (Wt)
:
rt = MPK (2.88) , Wt = MPL (2.89)
)

[ Harrod (Harrod neutral)]:
Yt = F ( K t , At , Lt )(2.90)
) (2.90)
(Kt) (AtLt). ,
(2.90) =1/AtLt
:

Yt
F ( K t , At , Lt )
y
K
=
t = F t ,1 y%t = g (k%t )(2.91)
At Lt
At Lt
A
At
{
{t

y% t
K% t

y%t = yt / At , yt = APL = Yt / Lt , k%t = kt / At kt = K t / Lt

(2.90)
Kt AtLt:
Yt
2Yt
>0
< 0(2.92)
2
K t

K
t
&
2Yt
Yt
< 0(2.93)
MPAL =
>0
2
( At Lt )
( At Lt )
&
MPK =

) g (0,1)
:
At = A0 e gt (2.94)

0: t=0
e2.718: .

:

46

Yt
2Yt
MPL =
< 0(2.95)
>0
2
Lt

L
t
&

) ( ) '
n (0,1) :
Lt = L0 e nt (2.96)

L0: t=0.
) (St) (Ct)
:
St = sYt (2.97)

& Ct = cYt (2.98)

S (0,1):
C=1-S (0,1):n
(St)
(Ct) ,
(2.97) (2.98) AtLt:
St
Y
(2.91)
= s t S%t = sy%t
S%t = sf (k%t )(2.99)
At Lt
At Lt
C
Y
(2.91)
Ct = cYt t = c t C% t = cy%t
C% t = cf (k%t )(2.100)
At Lt
At Lt
St = sYt

:
S
s%t = t
At Lt :

c
c%t = t
At Lt :
.


%
%
g+n, st ct
g+n.
g+n
(Yt) (Kt),
%
%
yt kt .
)
(It) :

47

I t = St (2.101)
,
(dKt/dt) (Kt)
dK t
It =
+ K t (2.102)
dt
(0,1) : ,
.

.
,
kt.
K
(2.94)
k%t = t ln k%t = ln K t ln At ln Lt
ln k%t = ln K t ln A0 gt ln L0 nt
(2.96)
At Lt
d (ln k%t ) d (ln K t ) d [ln( A0 L0 )]
ln k%t = ln K t ln( A0 L0 ) ( g + n)t
=

( g + n)
dt
dt
dt
K t 1 dK t
dk
1 dk%t
1 dK t

=
( g + n) t =
( g + n)k%t

(2.102)
%
dt
A L K dt
k dt K dt
t

dk%t I t K t
dk%
I
=
( g + n)k%t t = t ( + g + n)k%t
dt
At Lt
dt
At Lt

(2.97)^(2.101) : I t = St = sYt
dk%
Y
dk%
(2.91)
t = s t ( + g + n)k%t t = sy%t ( + g + n)k%t

dt
At Lt
dt
dk%
t = sf (k%t ) ( + g + n)k%t (2.103)
dt
(2.103)
,
%
kt . [general solution

%
%p
( kt )] [partial solution ( kt )] (2.103)
%c
[complementary solution ( kt )],
:
dk%t
+ ( + g + n)k%t sf (k%t ) = 0(2.104)
dt

(2.103) :

k%t = k%tp + k%tc (2.105)

48

%*
k% p = k%* ).
( k ) ( t
k% = k%*t , (2.103)
t
:
dk% *
= sf (k% * ) ( + g + n)k%* sf (k%* ) = ( + g + n)k%* (2.106)
dt
(2.106)
. +y+n
%
kt , (2.106)
%*
sf( k ),
,
k%t ( + g + n ) k%*

.

%*
(2.106) k
,
(2.103)
.
%*
k

,
.
Oy% Os%

.
%
kt ,
(+g+n),
(+g+n)/s

%
(+g+n) kt /s.

%
kt

,
Os% , ,
Oy% .
(2.106).
*
( Oy% )
*
( Os% ) .
%*
Oy% Os% k ,

49

,
*
*
*
(c% = EE ' = Oy Os ) .

%*
k
,g,n
s.

,g,n s,

n, g

(s),


(0,0) (
-2.9).
,
y,
%*
%*
%
k k1 k2 ,

(;).

%*
k
(s)
(n) (g)
(),
,
.
%*
k s,
%*
( dk = 0 )
.
( )
(g+n).

,

[
(2.100)].
.
Max
S.t.

( )
sf ( k% ) = ( + g + n)k% )
c%t* = (1 s ) f k%t*

*
t

*
t

50

, :

( )

( )

( )

c%t* = f k%t* sf k%t* c%t* = f k%t* ( + g + n)k%t* (2.107)

%*
kt :
c%t*
f (k%t* )
k%t*
=0
( + g + n) * = 0 f ' k%t* = + g + n(2.108)
*
*
%
%
kt
kt
k%t

( )

(2.108)
(Golden Rule of Capital Accumulation). (2.108)
*
%*
k%gold
k
t

, ,g n,


c%*
( gold ).
(2.108)
%*
kt

f ' ( kt* )



(+g+n).
-2.8
k%*
gold ,

f ' ( kt* )
,
Oy% ,
(+n+g).
k*t=k*gold (2.108).
*
%*
k%* k%gold
k*t f '(kt ) + g + n t
.


( 2 f k%t* / kt2 = ( MPK ) / K t < 0)

,
, 1
,

. 2
.

( )

(endogenous growth
models)

51

.

.

.

1 (knowledge spill-over),
,
(external economies)
.
2 (learn by doing).

. ()
,
.
3
(&) [Research & Development (R&D)].
& ,

, ,
.

, ,


.

, ,
, .
1 (technology spill-over)

,
.
2 ,
,
.

, .

,
.
4 (=4) 20
(L=20), 0,2

52

(k=/L=4/20=1/5=,02).
,
0,2 0,25 (k=/L=5/20=0,25),
.


.
(learning by doing)
,
,
.

.


, :
At = kt (2.109)

: >0 :
(t) (Kt)
(2.109) ,
, ,

.

,
:
kt =

Kt
d (ln kt ) d (ln K t ) d (ln L0 + nt )
(2.96)
ln kt = ln K t ln Lt

Lt
dt
dt
dt

1 dkt
1 dK t
=
n(2.110)
K t dt K t dt

dKt/dt=sYt-Kt,
:
1 dkt sYt
1 dkt sJ t
=
d n
=
( + n)(2.111)
K t dt
Kt
K t dt
kt

Harrod
Cobb-Douglas :
1

Yt = K t ( At Lt )

(2.109)
= At1 Lt kt
1 kt (1 ) Lt kt Yt = Lt kt (1 )+ (2.112)

53

yt = kt (1 )+ (2.113)

(0,1) =1->0
(2.111) (2.113) :
1 dkt
1 dkt
= askt (1 )+ 1 ( + n)
= skt(1 )( 1) ( + n)(2.114)
kt dt
kt dt

(2.114)
,
, .

, (2.114) =1,
:
1 dkt
= s ( + n)(2.115)
kt dt

,

(s)
(n)
(). n>0,
(2.115) (t)
sa-.
=1
. =1 (2.109), (2.112) (2.113)
:
At = kt (2.116)

Yt = K t (2.117)

yt = kt (2.118)

(2.116) (2.118), (At)

(Yt)
, s(+n). ct st (;).
(2.117)
,
.
, s-,
(APk=Y/K=
MP=Yk/=),
( 2Yk/K2t=k/Kt=0).
,
.
Kt

54

(2.117), ()
( ),
.
3 :
3.1


.
(quantitative means) (qualitative means).
(i)
(fiscal) , (ii) (monetary) (credit)
, (iii) (foreign exchange) (iv)
(direct controls).

.

.
3.2

(i) [Government Spendings (GS)] (ii)
[Taxes(TA)] [Public Borrowing(D)].

.

55

3.1 :

&

..

1 2 .

) (public consuption),
, ,
(. , ), ()
(public investments),

56

(infrastructure projects), ,
, . (stocks)
, () (
).
[Tranfer Payments (TP)]
,
.
() , ,
. () .
(i)
(ii)
.

(, )

(direct) (indirect).
() (income tax),
(personal &
corporate income tax), () (real estate tax),
,


[. (inheritance tax),
] () (employers
contribution).

( )
( ).
1% ,
(turnover tax) .. [Value Added
Tax (V.A.T)],


2
, , ,
(consuption taxes).
(import taxes) C.I.F ,

.

,
,

57

.


[Aggregate Taxes
(TA)], () ()
.
TAt = T + T (3.1)

, (GS)
(G)
(TR):
GSt = Gt + TRt (3.2)
(GS)
(TA) ( )
(D):
(3.2)
D t = GSt TAt
Gt (TAt TRt ) Dt = Gt Tt (3.3)

Tt=TAt-TRt : .
(3.3)
. 1
Dt<0 Gt<Tt,
(surplus) 2 Dt=0 Gt=Tt,
(balanced government budget). 3
Dt>0 Gt>Tt,
(deficit) Gt-Tt
(public or fiscal budget deficit).

.

,


.
1 : (
) .

.
,
,
.

58

2 :
.
,
.
3 :
.
,

.


LM. (wealth effect) , ,

,
IS .
,
IS-LM LM.
1 :
.
,

.
,
M0 ( ),
,
LM . IS,

.

,

LM
.

.
,
,
,
.

.

59

(Yts=Yt)
(Yt0),
[Consumption (Ct)],
[Investments(It)], [Government
Expenditures(Gt)] [balance of trade(IXt)] :
Yt = Ct + I t + Gt + IX t (3.4)
d
Ct = C (Yt )

I t = I (rte )

c(Yt d )
> 0(3.5)
Yt d

I * rte
< 0(3.7)
rte

Yt d = Yt T = Yt + TRt TAt (3.6)

IX t = X t IM t (3.8)

Ytd: (disposable income)

rte : (ex ante)
Xt : (exports) IMt : (Imports)
(3.4) ~ (3.8)

, (Yd),
(G) (IX),

.

(discretionary policies),


.
, , (rules) ,

,

.
(stabilizers)
.

(Y<Y*),

(Y0)
(Y) (U) .

,
,
,

.

60

.
)

(i)
, (ii) , (iii)
, (iv) (v)
.
(i)

.

,
. (
)
, ,

,
, ,

- .

,
,
: ()

() ,

.
, () ,
1
.


.
(ii)

,
, ,

,
,
, .

61

,
,
() ()
, .. ,
.

.
(iii)

, , , ,
, ,
.
,

( ).
, ,

D
( ),
.
(
),
.
,

,


.

(iv)

,
.
1
, 2
,
,

, 3 , 4

,
,
.

(v)

,
,

62

,
. ,
,

.
,

.
,
, ,

.
,
.

()
() .

,

.

,
.
,

.

,
.

()

,
(i) , (ii)
, (iii) (iv)
. :
i)

(progressive)
,
.
(),
(), ()

63

.2
,


. ,


.


, , ,
,
.

() ,


.

,
(limited companies),
(limited liability co.)
(municipal corporation) ...
[
(unlimited partnership) (limited partnership)].

,
,
, .

,
,
,
,
.
ii)

,

() ()

eTY =

dT
dY

,
, , : eTY > 1 , eTY = 1 eTY < 1 .

> 1 ), 1% ( = 1 %)
1% ( eTY > 1 > > 1 %).
( eTY

64

.
.

.
iii)

, ,
.
( ) ,
,

, ,
, .

iv)

()

,
.
(..., )

, .

,

. ,

,
.

,
, .


,
.
()

.

65

,
.
t
,
. ,
:

PG+iB=PT+++R+

(3.9)

: P: , G: ( )
, i:
, : , :
( ), : , R:
:
.
(3.9)
(PG)
(iB).
(3.9)
(PT), (),
()
()

:

R==0,

(3.9)

PD

0
0
}
}
( 3.3)
=PD+iB = +i -
P(GT)+iB=++ R +

y D
1


+ i
+i
=
=

y y

D
<0
y

(3.10)

(y) : ()
(Py), :

(3.11)

66

y d

d
=
dt

dt

y d + dy
dt
dt
y
y

y
2
2
2
(y )
(y ) (y )
(y )2

y

( 3.10 )

y y {
y {
y
y
( 3.11)

+ i ( + ) =
+ (r )

y
y

(3.12)

=
y :
: ,

r = i : .

,

,
(3.12) =0
:

= + (r )

(3.13)

( )
(r ) .
0
D =0 = =0
y
(.
),

(3.13) r >
r < .

,
,
,
.

67

, .

,
3:

= r = r y

(3.14)

r (0,1) : , : ,
y: .

(3.14) :
d = d (ry ) d = ( ydr + rdy ) d = ydr + rdy d = ry

dr
dy
+ r y

r
y

dy
d
dr
dy
y

d = +
= 1+

dr
dr
r
y
r
r

yr =

t =

r = 1 + yr

(3.15)

d r

dr :

dy r

dr y :

(3.15)
1%,
yr

. r ,
, , r,

.
:

t.
.

68

IS:

( )

y = C y d + ( g , r ) + G (3.16)

&

LM:

yd = y

= k ( y ) + l (r )

(3.17)

( 3.14 )

= (1 r ) y

: ,

( )

C yd

: ,

C (.)
> 0
C y d =
y d
,
( y, r ) : ,

= (.) > 0 & = (.) < 0
y
r
y
r
,

G: ,
,

: ,
,

k(y):
,
k = k (.) > 0
y
y


l (r ) : ,
l = k (.) < 0
r
r
5
.

(3.16) IS,
(y,r)
. (3.17)

C (.)

y d

(0,1)

.
=0 i=r

69

LM,
(y,r)
.
(3.17)
LM :

( )

ky
dr
d = k y dy + l r dr
=
>0

dy
lr
123
0

(3.18)

(3.16) :

(1 y )dy = C y d ydr + (1 r )C y d dy + r dr
d
d
y = (1 r ) y dy = y (0 dr ) + (1 r )dy
dr
dr
1 y (1 r )C y d dy = yC y d dr + r dr 1 y (1 r )C y d = yC y d
+ r

dy
dy
( 3.18 )
C yd
ky
dr
dy 1
1 (1 r )C y d y + r
= yC y d

ky
lr
dy
dr y
1 (1 r )C y d y + r
lr
d y = C y d dy d + y dy + r dr + dG
{
0

rC y d

yr =

1 (1 r )C y d y + r

ky
lr

(3.19)

(3.15) (3.19) :
1 C yd y + r
r =

ky
lr

1 (1 r )C y d y + r

ky
lr

(3.20)

r =
1+

1
C yd r
1 C yd y + r

ky
lr

(3.21)

(3.20) (3.21)
. () LM (
k l =0
,
LM), y r

70

1 C yd < y
(3.20) r < 0
.
LM,

1 C yd


( )
y . () LM
( LM),
k y l r =
, (3.21) r = 1 .

LM,
1%
.
,
,
, ,
(;)
(supply side economics)
1980,

. ,
,

,
.
, ,
,

( ) .

Laffer6 (Laffer curve),
-3.2
.

-3.2: Laffer

Arthur Laffer
.

71

[0,1],
0% r 100% . ,
r=0% ( ) r=100% ( ), (=r)
. (0,0) (100,0)
Laffer.
. ,
(.. 0% 20%)
,
Laffer.
(r*)
.
(r*,
100), ,
,
.
1981 ,

Laffer, ,
Ronald Reagan,
.

,
Reaganomics.
1981~1983,
,
7.

,
.

72

,

, ,
, ,
. ,
,
.
:
1 t=0 : D0 = G0 0 = 0
2 t=1
(lump sum),
:
G1 = G0
= 0
1
.
3 t=1,
D1 = G1 1 ,
r 1 .
4 t=2
: Dt = Gt t = 0 t 2 .

,

.
t=2,

t=1
.
:

T2 = G2 + (1 + r )D1 (3.22)
, (3.22),

t=1,

.

(Ricardian
Equivalence theorem),

, ( )
.

73

D1 = G1 1 , (3.22)
:

2 = G2 + (1 + r )(G1 1 )

1 +

G
2
= G1 + 2
1+ r
1+ r

(3.23)

, t=1

,
.

3.3

, .
.
(i) , (ii)
(iii)
. (i)
(ii) .

i)

(open market operations)

.
,
,
( )
8. ,
.
,

x ( ) i
, ( ) = x (1 + i ) .
( ) (i ) .

74

. ,

.
() , ()
, ()
()
. ,

. ()
, () ()
, ()
()
.

ii)

(discount rate)

9
. ,
,
(),
() , ()
()
. ()
. ,

.
,
,
. ,
,
.

iii)

, [Monetary Base (MB)]

[Currency (C)] [Total Reserves
1 . ( x = 10 ),
.
6

900.000

0.9 10 6 = 10 6 (1 + i ) i =

= 0.9 10 6

10 6 (1 0.9 )
0.1111 11.11%
10 6 0.9
75

(TR)], :

MB=TR+C (3.24)

,
,
[Required Reserves
(RR)] [Excess Reserves (ER)]:

TR=RR+ER

(3.25)

(r)
(D) , :

RR=rD , 0<r<1

(3.26)

(e)
(D) ,
:

ER=eD , 0 e<1

(3.27)

(c) , :

C=cD , 0<c<1 (3.28)

(3.24)~(3.28):

( 3.25 )

( 3.26 )

MB=TR+c (3.28) MB=RR+ER+cD (3.27 ) MB=rD+eD+cD MB=(r+e+c)D

D=

r +e+c

(3.29)
76

1
(c) (D):

1 =c+D

(3.30)

(3.28), (3.29) (3.30) :

( 3.28 )

( 3.30 )

1 =c+D 1 =(1+c)D

1 =

1+ c

r+e+c

(3.31)

,

(r).
, ,

.
,
,
. ,
,
. ,

,
, .

.

,

.
,

.
,

. r
, ,
, ,

,
.

77

,
(e)
.
(3.31), e ,
, c
,
.

i)

,
1

2
.
,

.

ii)

.
)
, )
, )
...
.

3.4

,

.

(fixed exchange rates)

78

(managed or dirty float).

10
.


.

,
, ,
,
(MB)
.
,
,
:

i)

,

11.
,
:

S
i ... : e

...

. ...
( ),
[ (3.31)].
,
,
,
... [
(2.62), 53]
10

, Maastricht
, , 15% .
11

,
[ (2.47), . 43]

79

, ...
:

S () S (i ) (e) ... : e

, , 12,

,

... [ (2.62), 53]
,


. , ,
(overshooting)
.

ii)

,
. ...,

,

.

... 13,
.

,

(sterilized
intervention).

12

...

t 1

et

et 1

,
.
13

it it f (2.62)

[ t (et +1 ) et ] et .

80

3.5

,


.

,
. ,

.
:

,
: (i)
()
,
. (ii)
,

. (iii)

. (iv) ,

,
. (v)

,
, ...

, .
, ,
.
, , ,

.
,

81

. ,
( )

.
( ).
( )
, ,
, .

,

().

.


.

.
,
.

.1
. 5

2
1
.

.

-
.
,

.

82

.
, , (O.L.S.).

()
u ~ N (0, u2 )

.

.

,
. ( )


.
() ,
() ,

.
(i) ,

(ii) ,
.

,
:
C t = 0 + 1 (t t ) + u Ct

t = 0 + 1 rt + 2 t + u it
t = 0 + 1t

0 0, 0 < 1 < 1

(.1)

(.2) 0 0 , 1 < 0 , 0 < 2 < 1

(.3)

t = 0 + 1 t f + u xt

(.4)

t = 0 + 1 t + u mt

(.5)

0 0 , 0 < 1 < 1

td = C t + t + Gt + t + t

(.6)

tS = t F ( t , Lt )

(.7)

0 0 , 0 < 1 < 1
0 0 , 0 < 1 < 1

83

.

, (6)
(C t , t , t , t , t & t )

(.1)~(.5)

.

.

, () ,

, ()
, .
,

()
.

, ,
: 1
,
(G), (

0 ) ()

( 1 ),
2
f
, ( ),
.
(.2)~(.7)
()
, (.1), (.2), (.4) (.5),
, ()
, ,
(.3) (.7)
() ,
(.6),
.


: 1
2

,
, .. MPC
(0,1) .

84

:
C t = 0 + 1 t + u Ct (.8) (C t u Ct ) = (t u Ct ) = 0 , u Ct ~ N (0, u2 )
t = C t + Gt

(.9)

,
( C t t ) ,
[

]. .

:

C t = 0 + 1 t + u Ct 1 1 C t 0 + u Ct
1
=

t = C t + Gt
1 t Gt 1 1
1

1 1 0 + u Ct
1 1 G

0
u
1
+
Gt + Ct
1 1 1 1
1 1

C t = 10 + 11Gt + t ( .10)
0
u Ct
1
t =
+
Gt +

t = 10 + 22 Gt + t ( .11)
1 1 1 1
1 1

Ct =

10 =

0
1
1
, 11 =
, 22 =
1 1
1 1
1 1

(C t t ) =

1
(C t u Ct ) = 0
1 1

(t t ) =

1
(t u Ct ) = 0
1 1

& =

u Ct
1 1

(.10) (.11)
, BLUE

85

10 = 0 0 ,
11 = 1 > 0
= 1 >1

22
1 1
1 1
1 1

10
= 0

0
10
10
0
22

22
1 1

11 =
=

1 = 11

11
1
22
1 1

22

(.8)
,
0 1
(ILS).

11 22
:

+ ) (
G)
C t (
10
11 t
t

=
+
=
11
Gt
Gt
Gt
14243
0

(.12)

&

+ ) (
G)
t (
10
t
22 t

=
+
=
22
Gt
Gt
Gt
14243
0

(.13)

(.12)[(.13)] 11 ( 22 )
()
.

86

C t = 0 e a1t u Ct

(.14)

.
:

C t = ln 0 + 1 t + ln(u Ct )

C t = 0 + 1 t + et

(.15)

C t = lnC t , 0 = ln 0 , et = ln(u Ct ) .

(.15) t
:

dC t
dC t 1
dC t
= 0 + 1 + 0
= 1
= 1
dt
dt C t
dt C t

(.16)

1
t
t =1

(.15) ,

C , .

( )

4.

.
.
[welfare (W)] , y z,
:

W=W(y,z) (4.17)

87

.

.
, ,
y z.

W,
[Loss Function (LF)]
y z

y z .

, , :

LF= W = y y

y , z
.

) + (z z )
2

(A.18)

*
Min LF= y y

s.t.

) + (z z )
2

* 2

y 10 11 z

(A.19)

y min y y max

(A.20)

z min z z max

(A.21)

(.18)
*
*
z , y LF .

88

,
(z,y)
(.19)~(.21), .
0
0
z , y

,
. 1 ,
.

5.

: (i)
(decomposable), (ii) (causal) (iii)
(indecomposable).

1 :
( y i )
( z i ), yi = f i ( z i ) .


y = f j ( yi , z j )
.
, j

89

yl = f l ( yi , y j , z l )

...

2 :

.
n n .
i i j
X, 0.
(i)
,
. :

y1 = f 1 ( z1 )

(.22)

y2 = f 2 ( y3 , z 2 )

(.23)

y3 = f 3 ( y 2 , z 3 )

(.24)

y4 = f 4 ( y5 , z 4 )

(.25)

y5 = f 5 ( y 4 , z 5 )

(.26)

.1

( 1 ) 1 1 ,

90

. 1

(.22)

(.23)

(.24)

(.25)

(.26)

2 2 .

( ), (
).
,
.


. z1

.

y1 ,

(ii)
.
:

y1 = f 1 ( z1 )

(.27)

y 2 = f 2 ( y1 , y 3 , z 2 )

(.28)

y 3 = f 3 ( y1 , y 2 , z 3 )

(.29)

y 4 = f 4 ( y1 , y 2 , y 3 , z 4 ) (.30)

.2.

91

, 3

, ,

2
( 1 2 3 ) 1 3
2 2 .

[ (.27)] , [
(.28) (.29)] , y1
,
[ (.30)]
y1 , y 2 , y 3

.

. , z1
y1
,
.

. .2

Y1

Y2

Y3

Y4

(A.27)

(A.28)

(A.29)

(A.30)

(iii)
,
. :

y1 = f1 ( y 3 , z1 )

(.31)

y 2 = f 2 ( y1 , y 3 , y 4 , z 2 )

(.32)

y 3 = f 3 ( y1 , y 2 )

(.33)

y4 = f 4 ( y 2 , y3 , z3 )

(.34)

.3.

,
,
.
z
i
y i .

92

. .3

y1

y2

y3

y4

(A.31)

(A.32)

(A.33)

(A.34)

Ct = f1 ( yt , r )

(.35)

il = f 2 ( r )

(.36)

y t = C t + it

(.37)

tD = f 3 (t , Rt )

(.38)

tS = m

(.39)

t = tD = tS

(.40)

Rt = r +

(.41)

t = t y t

(.42)

Ct

: , y t : , r :
D
, it : , t : , t :
R
tS
:
, t : ,
, m : , : , :

93

t : .
.

,
.
:

( .39)

( .41)

( .36)

(4) tD = f 3 (t , Rt ) ( .39)

(5) y t = C t + it
( .37)

( .35)

( .42)

(1) tS = m
(2) Rt = r +
(3) it = f 2 (r )

( 6) C t = f 1 ( y t , r )
(7) t = t y t

.4. ,
6
,
6 . ,


.

(.39)
(.41)
(.36)
(.38)
(.37)
(.42)
(.35)

Mt

Rt

it

Yt

Ct

yt

Pt

0
0

0
0
0

0
0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0
0

0
0

0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
1

1
2

94

6:
6.1

.
, ,
,
.
(fixed) (absolute)

.
,

.
,
.
, ,
.
6.2

: 1
.
. 2
, ,
.

, (*)
, (^)



.
: ,

(.1)
(.2)
: , : , : :
.

( )
.

95

,
.
1

,
, 2
, 3
4
.

, (.1)
(.2) :
(.3)

, .
,
,

.
(.3) ,
.

:

:
(.4)
(.5)
(.6)

(
),
.
( ) ( ),

.

,

. ,
( )
( ).
(.4) ~
(.6)

(.7)

96

(.5)

(.8)

,
,


. ,

(
)
.
: B

,
.
( )
(.4) (.6) :

(.9)

( ),
. ,
(1)
(2)
. 1 (
, ,
) 2
(
), (.5)
:

,
.
: ,
:

97

: ()
().

(
),
.




:

Leontief:

u(v): ()
.
(.14) :

(Y*)
. =*
:

,
,
.
,

:
.
(5) (2)
[degrees of freedom (3)].

98

k=2
e=5
:

,
.1 .
,
.

. , ,
.
1

)
(

(
), 2
.
,
,
.

Cg

Ig

r
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

Cg

Ig

.
Y*

(.17)
:

(.21)
,

, (.16), (.18),
:
(.19) (.20)

99

, (.21)
(.22) ,
(
)
1
2
.
(.21) (.22)

(.21)

(.22).

.



:
1 ()

( ), ()
( ) ()

( ).
2
.
3
.
4 ,

. .
5


.

100

,
,
.
6.3

,
,

. ,

.



,

.

:

(-6.1)


:

(-6.2)

(-6.1)

, (-6.2)

.


.
,

(.23)

(.24)

101

(.23),


.
(.24),




.


.


:
.

.
: ,

:

102

(.8) (.7)
:

(.27) (.8)

,
( ) ( )
(.23),
(.24)

7:
7.1

[Loss
Function (LF)] ,
.

. LF
,
,
.


,
.

(flexible) (variable) (relative) .

103

,
.

.
7.2


()
Lagrange ()
.


(LF).

,

.


:
(7.1)
(7.2)


:

104

1

G C.
(G)
(Y) (C).
,
, :
(7.8)
LF,

. ,
(C)

:

:
(7.9)
(7.9)

:

(7.10) (7.3)
( :

105

,
,

,
(LF=0).

7.3

,

.
>

, .. , ,
(7.8)
:

(7.14) :

106

.
(7.3) (7.15)
( ):

.
>
:

107

(7.20) G. :

(7.21) (7.22),

.
:

,

, ,

,

.
,
.
7.4
,

,

108

.

.

:

, (), (C)
( ), ,
, (G)
(r),
. ,
,
.

:

,
.

(7.25)~(7.27) Y, C :

109

,
,

(7.29) (7.31):

, .
:

() ,

110

.
(7.34)
(7.29) (7.31):

,
, (7.28)
:

,

,
.


.
,
,

.


, [
(7.29) (7.31)]

.

,

.

111

9:
(..)


.
.. , r , ().

.
,
.

(
):

..
.

:
(6) IS
(r,Y),
. IS

(6).
()
().
IS :


IS:
i)

ii)

iii)

112

iv)

, IS
(

( .

:
(8) LM
(r,Y)
. LM


(). ()
LM ().
LM :

LM:
i)

ii)

iii)

IS LM (r,Y)

. , ..
..
,
.
IS-LM
,
(>0) ,

.

LM .
(r,Y)
IS. 9.1
,
,
IS.

113

1 IS
. ,

1:

2:

9.1

3:

114

LM1 LM2.
, ,

, .
(Y,r)

().

,


.
,

.
2 9.1 IS LM
IS LM1. LM
LM2,
,

. ,
,
.

,

.



.
9.1
IS LM , IS

.

.
,

.

(Y,r) .
,


.


.

(Y,r)
. ,


IS,


.
,
(Y,r)
.
IS
LM.

LM
IS.
:

115

IS-LM
, r
.
, .
: (i) r
. (ii) Y r

.

() IS () IS .

> IS
IS
:
)
,
.
:

,
:

LF
:

116

,
(11), :

..,

...
.
:

IS-LM
-9.2. LM
() ,
. (


IS LM.

) Y r
,

. :

,
:

,
, :

117

LF
:

(17)
:

(20)
.
:

(18) (20)
, :

(

-9.3
IS LM. LM

, ,

.

118

> IS.
IS , r

,
(10).
: 1 ,
LM IS,


(
.
,

. 2
,
,
(Y,r)
.
IS ,

, LM
.
>


,
.
:

:
,

119

, ,

, .
IS (24)~(26)
:

LM (27)
(28) :

u v :

,
. :

,
.
r (
)
(29):

(= ),
(29)
(30):

120

[ (11) (17)] [ (36) (37)],
. (36) (37)
,

(36) (37)
u v.
:

(38)
..
)
(

:

(39)
..
(= )

M(r)

..
(41) (40):

121

122