Tavi 18

deficitis dafinanseba

gaufrTxildiT da pativi eciT sazogadoebis ndobas _ igi Zlierebisa da usafrTxoebis

umniSvnelovanesi wyaroa.
jorj vaSingtoni
Cven ukve gavecaniT federaluri mTavrobis mier dawesebul ZiriTad gadasaxadebs. axla
ki ganvixiloT misi Semosavlis meore mniSvnelovani wyaro - vali. ukve didi xania, rac aqtiurad
msjeloben sesxiT dafinansebis sakiTxze. masze saubroben politikuri kampaniebis dros; mis
Sesaxeb bevri iwereba. rogorc Cans, rTulia am sakiTxis ugulebelyofa. axla ki ganvixiloT sesxis
moculobis SefasebasTan dakavSirebuli problemebi, vis awevs sesxi mZime tvirTad da ra
pirobebSia mosaxerxebeli sesxi saxelmwifo danaxarjebis dasafinanseblad.

ramdenad didia vali?

Tavdapirvelad upriani iqneba, kargad CavukvirdeT ramdenime definicias. deficiti aris
periodis ganmavlobaSi danaxarjebis siWarbe Semosavlebze; Tu Semosavali aRemateba
danaxarjs, warmoiqmneba proficiti. TiTqos yvelaferi martivadaa, sanam gavixsenebT pirvel
Tavs, romelSic naTqvamia, rom biujeti ar moicavs federaluri mTavrobis yovel qmedebas.
moqmedi wesebis Tanaxmad, saxelmwifo sapensio uzrunvelyofis Semosavlebi da xarjebi
arasabiujetoa. samarTlebrivi gansxvavebis miuxedavad, saxelmwifo valis Sesafaseblad
aucilebelia yvela Semosavlisa da xarjis gaTvaliswineba. amdenad, mTliani deficitis an proficitis
gamosaTvlelad aucilebelia, sabiujeto deficits (an proficits) (romelic dakavSirebulia mxolod
biujetiT gaTvaliswinebul saqmianobasTan) mivumatoT arasabiujeto deficiti (an proficiti)
(romelic dakavSirebulia biujetiT gauTvaliswinebel, anu arasabiujeto saqmianobasTan).
cxrili 18.1 gviCvenebs mTlian federalur deficits (anu deficits, romelic moicavs
arasabiujeto Semosavlebsa da danaxarjebs) 1970-2005 wlebSi. cifrebis perspeqtivaSi
Sesafaseblad mocemulia maTi proporcia mTlian Sida produqtTan mimarTebaSi. biujeti
proficituri iyo 1998 wlidan 2001 wlamde, magram umetesi drois ganmavlobaSi igi mainc
deficitiT xasiaTdeboda.
axla ki kargi iqneba, Tu gaviazrebT, Tu ra gansxvavebaa deficitsa da vals Soris.
mimdinare periodis vali warmoadgens warsulSi arsebuli TiToeuli sabiujeto deficitis jams, anu
vali aris warsulSi gaweuli xarjis kumulaciuri siWarbe Semosavlebze. gamodis, rom deficitur
weliwads vali izrdeba, xolo proficitul weliwads ki klebulobs. ekonomistebis enaze, vali `cvladi
kapitalia~ (romelic droSi izomeba), xolo proficiti da deficiti ki `cvladi nakadebia~ (romelic
periodis mixedviT izomeba). oficialuri saxelmwifo statistikis Tanaxmad, 2002 wlis bolos
federaluri vali daaxloebiT 3,5 trilion aSS dolars Seadgenda. es cifri daujereblad maRalia. rogorc
iumoristi rasel beikeri [1985] aRniSnavda: `sinaTlis weliwadis msgavsad, trilioni imdenad rTuli
cifria aRsaqmelad, rom igi daainteresebs mxolod maTematikisadmi avadmyofuri interesis
mqone pirebs. swored amitom adamianTa umetesi nawili aSkarad uinteresod ekideba im
naTqvams, rom male erovnuli vali gaxdeba 2 trilioni, 20 trilioni an 200 trilioni aSS dolari. ra
mniSvneloba aqvs cifrs? gaugebroba gaugebrobaa~.

cxrili 18.1 federaluri saxelmwifo deficiti, 1970 2005 w.w.

fiskaluri weliwadi

mTliani deficiti (-) an proficiti

(miliard aSS dolarSi)

1970
1980
1985
1990
2000
2002
2005*

-2,8
-73,8
-212,3
-221,4
236,4
-157,8
-7,0

mTliani deficitis (-) an

proficitis procentuli Sefardeba
mSp-sTan
0,3
-2,9
-5,4
-4,0
2,4
-1,5
-0,6

*prognozi
wyaro: kongresis sabiujeto ofisi, ekonomikuri da sabiujeto perspeqtivebi: 2004 2013 fiskaluri wlebi, 2003 wlis
ianvari, gv. xvi. 148

cxrili 18.2 federaluri saxelmwifo vali sazogadoebis winaSe, 1970 2005 w.w.
fiskaluri weliwadi
1970
1980
1985
1990
2000
2002
2005*

saxelmwifo vali (miliard aSS

dolarSi)
283
709
1499
2410
3410
3540
4013

saxelmwifo valis procentuli

Sefardeba mSp-sTan
29,4
27,8
38,4
44,6
35,1
34,3
33,6

*prognozi
wyaro: kongresis sabiujeto ofisi, ekonomikuri da sabiujeto perspeqtivebi: 2004 2013 fiskaluri wlebi, 2003 wlis
ianvari, gv. xvi. 149.

beikeris gafrTxilebis miuxedavad, kargi iqneba, Tu vals perspeqtivaSi mainc SevafasebT

kvlav misi mSp-sTan Sedarebis gziT. 2002 wlis federaluri vali (3,5 trilioni aSS dolari) imave
wlis mSp-s 34%-s Seadgenda _ yoveli dolaridan 34 centi am valis dafarvas unda moxmareboda.
cxrili 18.2 gviCvenebs analogiur proporcias sxva wlebis ganmavlobaSi.
kerZo msesxeblis analogiurad, saxelmwifo kreditors uxdis sesxiT sargeblobis procents.
2002 wels procentma 171 miliardi aSS dolari, anu mTliani federaluri danaxarjis 8,5% Seadgina
[kongresis sabiujeto ofisi, 2003, gv. 152].
deficitis, proficitisa da valis moculobis interpretacia
sakmaod rTulia, gadaWarbebiT SevafasoT cifrebis politikuri mniSvneloba, rodesac 18.1
da 18.2 cxrilebs vukvirdebiT. Tanamdebobis pirebi da Jurnalistebi saxelmwifo finansebis
mdgomareobis Sefasebis procesSi maT didi yuradRebiT ekidebian. ase magaliTad, 2003 wels
sakmaod mkacri debatebi gaimarTa mosalodneli deficitis SesaZlo Sedegebis Sesaxeb. Tumca
ekonomikuri TvalsazrisiT arcTu mTlad Sinaarsiania cifrebi, romelmac gamoiwvia debatebi

deficitisa da proficitis Sesaxeb. axla ki ganvixiloT, Tu ratom iTvleba es cifrebi ekonomikuri

TvalsazrisiT uazrod.
saxelmwifos vali federaluri sarezervo sistemis mimarT. axorcielebs ra monetarul
operaciebs, federaluri sarezervo sistema SeiZens aSS-is saxelmwifos fasian qaRaldebs1. 2002
wels misi wili 604 miliard aSS dolars Seadgenda [prezidentis ekonomikuri angariSi, 2003, gv.
372]. samarTlebrivad federaluri sarezervo sistema damoukidebeli samsaxuria, amdenad, misgan
aRebuli vali aRiricxeba, rogorc sazogadoebis winaSe arsebuli davalianeba; arasamTavrobo
organizaciebidan aRebuli sesxi ufro relevanturad gamoiyureba zogierTi miznebisaTvis.
Statebisa da municipalitetebis vali. miuxedavad imisa, rom vali federaluri mTavrobis
WrilSi ganixileba, mas xSirad iRebs Stati da adgilobrivi mmarTveloba. 1999 wels Statebisa da
municipalitetebis gadauxdeli vali 1,37 trilion aSS dolars utoldeboda [aSS-is aRweris samsaxuri,
2002 weli, gv. 269]. am wlis federaluri cifri 3,6 trilioni aSS dolari iyo; ori cifris jami
relevanturia, Tu Cven gvsurs SevafasoT mTavrobis zemoqmedebis masStabi sakredito bazrebze.
inflaciis efeqti. deficitis standartuli gamoTvlisas gadasaxadi moiazreba, rogorc
saxelmwifo Semosavlebis erTaderTi wyaro. miuxedavad amisa, rodesac saxelmwifo debitoria,
fasTa done ki icvleba, valis realur RirebulebaSi ganxorcielebuli cvlileba SesaZloa, Semosavlis
mniSvnelovan wyarod iqces. davuSvaT, rom wlis dasawyisSi Tqven sesxulobT 1000 dolars
kreditorisagan. Tanxa ar eqvemdebareba dabrunebas wlis bolomde. davuSvaT, rom wlis
ganmavlobaSi fasebi 10%-iT gaizarda. fuli, romelsac Tqven kreditors daubrunebT, 10%-iT
naklebi Rirebulebisaa, vidre is fuli, romelic Tqven kreditorisagan isesxeT. faqtobrivad, inflaciis
Sedegad Tqveni valis realuri Rirebuleba 100 dolariT (1000 dolaris 10%) Semcirda. gamodis,
rom Tqveni Semosavali 100 dolariT gaizarda inflaciis Sedegad, xolo Tqveni kreditoris realuri
Semosavali ki 100 dolariT Semcirda2.
axla ki iseTive logikiT mivudgeT 2002 wlis federaluri deficitis analizs. 2002 fiskaluri
wlis dasawisSi federaluri mTavrobis daufaravi vali daaxloebiT 3,5 trilion aSS dolars gautolda.
2002 wlis ganmavlobaSi inflaciis done daaxloebiT 1,4% iyo. amdenad, inflaciis Sedegad 49
miliardiT Semcirda federaluri valis realuri Rirebuleba (=3,5 trilioni dolari X 0,014). faqtobrivad,
es Tanxa iseTive Semosavalia saxelmwifosaTvis, rogorc nebismieri pirobiTi gadasaxadi. Tu
Cven gaviTvaliswinebT `inflaciis gadasaxads~, 158 miliardi moculobis pirobiTad gamoTvlili
deficiti 109 miliard dolaramde Semcirdeba. saxelmwifo saaRricxvo wesebis Tanaxmad, amgvari
mogebis dokumenturi aRricxva valis inflaciuri eroziis gamo ikrZaleba, rac realuri deficitis
gadaWarbebiT Sefasebis tendencias aZlevs stimuls.
kapitaluri danaxarjis Tu mimdinare danaxarjis aRricxva? federaluri mTavroba Tavs
mouyris yvela im danaxarjs, romelTa CarTva aucilebelia biujetSi. ar aris saWiro,
erTmaneTisagan mkafiod gansxvavdebodes mimdinare danaxarji da kapitaluri danaxarji.
mimdinare danaxarji moicavs wlis ganmavlobaSi momsaxurebis SesaZenad gaweul yvela
danaxarjs, vaSingtonis monumentis saremonto xarjebidan dawyebuli, sazRvao flotis xelfasiT
damTavrebuli. kapitaluri danaxarji ki xangrZlivi gamoyenebis saqonlis SeZenaze gaweul xarjebs
gulisxmobs (damba, radaris sadguri, aviamzidi). federalur doneze dafinansebuli fizikuri kapitalis
rezervi 2,1 trilioni aSS dolaria, saidanac 643 miliardi aSS dolari saxelmwifo Tavdacvasa da
danarCen sferoebzea gamoyofili [administraciul-sabiujeto marTva, 2003 weli, gv. 153].

federaluri saxelmwifos zogierTi samsaxuri gascems sesxs xazinaze, magram, federaluri sarezervo sistemisagan
gansxvavebiT, mis mier gasesxebuli fuli ar aris aRricxuli sazogadoebis winaSe arsebul davalianebaSi.
2
Tu msesxebeli da kreditori moelian inflacias, mosalodnelia sesxis procentis gazrda. aRniSnuli sakiTxi kargadaa
ganxiluli me-15 TavSi.

federaluri sabiujeto praqtikisagan gansxvavebiT, aSS-is biznesis, Statebisa da

municipalitetebis sabiujeto praqtika aseTia: warmoebul iqnes cal-calke biujetebi mimdinare da
kapitaluri danaxarjebisaTvis. calke kapitaluri biujetis warmoebis Sedegad viRebT ufro zust
suraTs organizaciis finansuri mdgomareobis Sesaxeb. ratom? grZelvadiani saqonlis SeZena
arasodes iTvleba `danakargad~. es aris erTi aqtivis (fulis) gacvla meore aqtivze (xangrZlivi
gamoyenebis saqonelze). amdenad, aqtivis SeZena ar iwvevs organizaciis deficitis warmoqmnas.
gamoyenebis Sedegad aqtivi ganicdis cveTas da swored misi cveTa warmoadgens danakargs.
amdenad, standartuli buxhaltruli aRricxvis procedurebis Tanaxmad, mimdinare biujetSi aisaxeba
grZelvadiani aqtivis wliuri cveTa da ara aqtivis SeZenis mTliani fasi.
federaluri mTavrobis mier biujetSi kapitaluri danaxarjebis dagegmvis sakiTxis Sesaxeb
arsebobs didi winaaRmdegoba. ideis momxreebi Tvlian, rom mis gareSe saxelmwifo erTob
ucnaur gadawyvetilebebs iRebs. politikosebma SesaZloa, moawyon `Ria fasdakleba~ _
saxelmwifo aqtivebi miyidon kerZo seqtors da, Tanac, ganacxadon, rom am gziT Semcirdeba
deficiti. 2002 wlis buSis administraciis mier SemuSavebuli deficitis Semcirebis gegma
nawilobriv araTavdacviTi federaluri Senoba-nagebobebis gayidvas iTvaliswinebda. axla ki,
rogorc ukve aRvniSneT me-4 TavSi, Cven gvaqvs Zalian kargi mizezi imisaTvis, rom aseTi
aqtivi gadavceT kerZo pirebs, Tumca am garigebas araferi aqvs saerTo realuri sabiujeto deficitis
SemcirebasTan. igi ubralod gviCvenebs, rom arsebobs mTavroba, romelic erT aqtivs cvlis
meoreze. moqmedi saaRricxvo sistemis Tanaxmad, aseT gayidvaTa amonagebi ganixileba,
rogorc sagadasaxado Semosavlebis ekvivalenti da, amdenad, moiazreba, rogorc deficitis
Sevsebis saSualeba.
kapitaluri danaxarjis dagegmvis momxreTa saboloo argumenti ki is aris, rom igi xalxs
Seaxsenebs, rom sesxis aReba ar aris yovelTvis cudi. keTilgonieri ojaxi aiRebs sesxs iseTi
grZelvadiani aqtivis SesaZenad, rogorciaa saxli an manqana; analogiurad, keTilgonieri
mTavroba iRebs sesxs grZelvadiani aqtivebis SesaZenad.
kapitaluri danaxarjebis dagegmvis ideis mowinaaRmdegeni aRniSnaven, rom mTavroba
ver asxvavebs erTmaneTisagan mimdinare da kapitalur danaxarjs. aris Tu ara saganmanaTleblo
da samsaxurebrivi treningi mimdinare xarji? Tu igi adamianur kapitalSi ganTavsebuli
investiciaa, romelmac nayofi momavalSi unda moimkas? aris Tu ara raketa kapitaluri danaxarji
(radgan igi didi xnis ganmavlobaSi Zlebs)? Tu mimdinare danaxarji (radgan misi xelaxla
gamoyeneba SeuZlebelia)? aseTi mravalmniSvnelovani faqtorebi iwvevs negatiur politikur
Sedegebs: axali xarjviTi programis TiToeuli oponenti imis mtkicebas daiwyebs, rom es aris
investicia da, amdenad, miekuTvneba kapitaldabandebaTa biujets. faqtobrivad, iseTi satransfero
programebis momxreebi, rogoricaa samrewvelo taloni, amtkiceben, rom es aris `investicia~,
radgan dRes Raribi individis racionis gazrda mas produqtiuls gaxdis momavalSi. kritikosebi
miuTiTeben, rom satransfero programebis invesiticiad klasificireba kapitalur da mimdinare
danaxarjs Soris arsebul gansxvavebas azrs ukargavs.
davuSvaT, ojaxi flobs 15 milioni dolaris Rirebulebis materialur aqtivs (iaxtebs, saxlebs,
rembrantis Sedevrs). misi davalianeba adgilobrivi bankis winaSe (sakredito baraTiT sargeblobis
sakomisioebi) 25000 aSS dolars udris. ojaxs ar gaaCnia raime sxva aqtivi an valdebuleba.
sisulele iqneba, davaskvnaT, rom ojaxis materialuri mdgomareoba 25000 dolari valiTaa
gamoxatuli. zogadi finansuri mdgomareobis Sesafaseblad aucilebelia TiToeuli aqtivisa da
valdebulebis gaazreba da gaTvaliswineba.
federalur mTavrobas, masiur finansur valdebulebasTan erTad (rogorc es miTiTebulia
18.2 cxrilSi), auracxeli materialuri aqtivic aqvs (sacxovrebeli da arasacxovrebeli Senobebi,
manqana-danadgarebi, oqro da sasargeblo wiaRiseulis mopovebis ufleba). miuxedavad amisa,
sazogadoebrivi debatebi mTlianad mTavrobis finansur valdebulebebzea fokusirebuli da ara mis

materialur aqtivebze. aramaterialuri aqtivebis ugulebelyofam ki SesaZloa, saxelmwifos finansuri

mdgomareobis Sesaxeb mcdari warmodgena Segviqmnas.
aracxadi valdebulebani. obligacia aris momavalSi gansazRvruli Tanxis gadaxdis
piroba. am Tanxis mimdinare Rirebuleba aris obligaciis wili valis mTlian moculobaSi. magram
obligacia ar aris erTaderTi meTodi, romelsac federaluri mTavroba mimarTavs imisaTvis, rom
sazogadoebis winaSe momavalSi gansazRvruli Tanxis gadaxdis piroba dados. aRniSnuli
SesaZloa, kanonmdeblobis saSualebiTac moxdes. yvelaze mniSvnelovani magaliTi saxelmwifo
sapensio uzrunvelyofaa, romelic momaval pensionerebs sapensio daxmarebas hpirdeba,
romelsac mTavroba momavalSi misaRebi sagadasaxado Semosavlebidan gadaixdis. rTulia zusti
Rirebulebis gansazRvra, magram saxelmwifo sapensio uzrunvelyofis daufaravi momavali
valdebuleba daaxloebiT 9 trilions udris. `mediqeari~ analogiurad akisrebs saxelmwifos
samomavlo valdebulebebs; maTi mimdinare Rirebuleba daaxloebiT 6 trilion aSS dolars
uaxlovdeba. garda amisa, federaluri kanonmdebloba uzrunvelyofs sapensio daxmarebas sajaro da
samxedro moxeleebisaTvis. federaluri sapensio valdebuleba 1,75 trilions utoldeba
[administraciul-sabiujeto samsaxuri, 2003, gv. 24].
cxadia, sakanonmdeblo piroba da oficialuri vali ar aris erTi da igive: gansxvavebulia
maTi samarTlebrivi statusi; valis cxadi formebi warmoadgens kanonier valdebulebas,
saxelmwifo sapensio uzrunvelyofisa da `mediqearis~ daxmareba ki sakanonmdeblo cvlilebaTa
gatarebis safuZvelze SesaZloa, Semcirdes. miuxedavad amisa, am programaTa politikuri
mxardaWera imdenad Zlieria, rom mTavroba arc ki Seecdeba maT arsebiT Secvlas. amis
safuZvelze bevri ekonomisti Rrmad aris darwmunebuli imaSi, rom saxelmwifo valma dapirebuli
saxelmwifo sapensio uzrunvelyofis, `mediqearisa~ da sxva kuTvnili daxmarebebis programaTa
mimdinare Rirebulebac unda moicvas.
reziume
ramdenad didia saxelmwifo vali? pasuxi damokidebulia imaze, Tu romeli aqtivi da
valdebulebaa gaTvaliswinebuli gamoTvlebis dros da rogor aris isini Sefasebuli. iseve, rogorc
sxva analogiur situaciebSi, `marTebuli~ pasuxi swored im miznebzea damokidebuli, romlebic
Cven gvamoZravebs. ase magaliTad, Tu Cveni mizani im valdebulebaTa gansazRvraa, romlebic
unda dafaron momavalma gadasaxadis gadamxdelebma, maSin gamoTvlis dros racionaluri
iqneba iseTi aracxadi valdebulebis gaTvaliswineba, rogoricaa saxelmwifo sapensio
uzrunvelyofa. Tu Cveni mizani fiskaluri politikis zegavlenis Sefasebaa sakredito bazrebze
(romlebic odnav mogvianebiT iqneba ganxiluli), maSin ufro sasargeblo iqneba pirobiTi deficitis,
an proficitis gaTvaliswineba (oficialuri valdebulebebis CaTvliT). saerTod, didi sifrTxiliT unda
movekidoT valis, deficitisa da gadametebuli cifrebis interpretacias.

valis tvirTi
sayovelTaod aRiarebulia is faqti, rom saxelmwifo valis Semcireba WeSmaritad dadebiTi
saqme iqneba. Tumca Cven ratom vidardoT erovnuli valis Sesaxeb? ratom unda viyoT
dainteresebulni misi gazrdiT an SemcirebiT? pasuxis gacema am kiTxvaze erTob rTulia da
sesxis dafinansebis xarjebis Sesaxeb sruli informaciis flobas moiTxovs. garda amisa, aucilebelia
im pirebis identificireba, visac akisria valis tvirTi.
dasawyisSive unda aRvniSnoT, rom momaval Taobas mouwevs valis gadaxda an misi
refinansireba (refinansireba gulisxmobs axali sesxis aRebas arsebuli davalianebis dafarvis
mizniT). nebismier SemTxvevaSi xorcieldeba transferi momavali gadasaxadis gadamxdelisgan
obligaciis mflobelze _ valis refinansirebis SemTxvevaSic ki, aucilebeli iqneba procentis gadaxda

obligaciis axali mflobelebisaTvis. rogorc Cans, valis mTeli tvirTi momaval Taobas ekisreba.
Tumca gadasaxadebis efeqtis Teoria (ix. me-12 Tavi) garkveul eWvqveS ayenebs aseT logikas.
mxolod is faqti, rom samarTlebrivi tvirTi ekisreba momaval Taobas, ar gulisxmobs imas, rom
maTve ekisrebaT realuri tvirTi. rogorc gadasaxadebis ganawilebis SemTxvevaSi, movlenaTa
dinamiurobis Sedegad, tvirTis ekonomikuri ganawileba sruliadac aRar hgavs xolme tvirTis
samarTlebriv ganawilebas. iseve, rogorc ganawilebis sxva SemTxvevebSi, pasuxi ekonomikur
qmedebebTan asocirebul daSvebebzea damokidebuli.
lerneris mosazreba
warmovidginoT, rom mTavroba fuls sakuTari qveynis moqalaqeebisagan sesxulobs _
valdebuleba Sida valis saxelwodebiTaa cnobili. lerneris [1948] Tanaxmad, Sida vali ar
warmoqmnis tvirTs momavali TaobebisaTvis. momavali Taobis warmomadgenlebs ubralod
erTmaneTis mimarT eqnebaT davalianeba. valis gadaxdis dros ganxorcieldeba Semosavlis
transferi mosaxleobis erTi jgufidan (romelic ar flobs obligaciebs) meore jgufSi (romelic
obligaciebis mflobelia). miuxedavad amisa, ar uaresdeba momavali Taobis, rogorc mTliani
sazogadoebrivi fenis, materialuri mdgomareoba _ misi moxmarebis done zustad igive iqneba, rac
unda yofiliyo. rogorc me-18 saukunis mwerali, meloni, ityoda: `marjvena xels aqvs marcxena
xelis vali~ [1985].
mdgomareoba radikalurad icvleba, rodesac qveyana mimdinare danaxarjebis
dasafinanseblad meore qveynisagan iRebs sesxs. aseTi vali sagareo valis saxelwodebiTaa
cnobili (aSS-Si federaluri valis 39% ucxoeli investorebisganaa nasesxebi [prezidentis
ekonomikuri angariSi, 2003, gv. 380). davuSvaT, rom sxva qveynidan nasesxebi vali mimdinare
moxmarebis dasafinanseblad gamoiyeneba. aseT SemTxvevaSi momaval Taobas
erTmniSvnelovnad ekisreba tvirTi _ misi moxmarebis done valisa da daricxuli procentis
(romelic gadaexdeba ucxoel kreditors) TanxiT klebulobs3. meore mxriv, Tu sesxi kapitalis
dasabandeblad gamoiyeneba, maSin Sedegi proeqtis rentabelobaze sruladaa damokidebuli. Tu
investiciis zRvruli ukugeba ucxoeTSi nasesxebi fuladi saxsrebis zRvrul Rirebulebas aRemateba,
sesxisa da kapitaluri danaxarjebis kombinacia, faqtobrivad, aumjobesebs momavali Taobis
materialur mdgomareobas. Tu proeqtis ukugeba zRvrul Rirebulebaze naklebia, maSin momavali
Taobis finansuri mdgomareoba uaresdeba.
mosazreba imis Sesaxeb, rom Sida vali ar warmoqmnida tvirTs momavali
TaobebisaTvis, popularuli iyo ekonomistebs Soris 1940-1950 wlebSi. dRes ekonomistebs ukve
sjeraT, rom saqme bevrad ufro rTuladaa.

Tanmxvedr TaobaTa modeli

cxrili 18.3 Tanmxvedr TaobaTa modeli

axalgazrda
(1) Semosavali
(2) saxelmwifo vali

$ 12000
-6000
4000

(3) saxelmwifos mier uzrunvelyofili

moxmareba
3

sesxis refinansirebis dros gadasaxdelia mxolod procenti.

2004-2004 wlebi
saSualo
asakis
$ 12000
-6000
4000

xandazmuli
$12000
4000

2024 weli

axalgazrda

saSualo asakis

xandazmuli

(4) saxelmwifo
zrdis gadasaxads
$ -4000
$-4000
$-4000
valis dafarvis
mizniT
(5) saxelmwifo
+6000
+6000
faravs vals
lerneris modelis Tanaxmad, `TaobaSi Sedis yvela cocxali adamiani mocemuli
periodisaTvis. Taobis ufro racionaluri ganmarteba ki aseTia: Taoba warmoadgens im adamianTa
nakrebs, romelic daaxloebiT erT periodSia dabadebuli. am ganmartebis Tanaxmad, mocemul
periodSi cxovrobs ramdenime Taoba _ aseTi fenomeni Tanmxvedr TaobaTa modelis
saxeliTaa cnobili. Tanmxvedr TaobaTa martivi modelis analizis Sedegad kargad Cans, Tu rogor
mimdinareobs valis tvirTis TaobaTa Soris ganawileba.
warmovidginoT, rom mosaxleoba Tanabari raodenobis axalgazrda, saSualo asakisa da
xandazmuli Taobisagan Sedgeba. TiToeuli Taoba wina Taobaze 20 wliT ufrosia; yvela Taobis
TiToeuli wevris fiqsirebuli Semosavali 12000 aSS dolaria 20 wlis ganmavlobaSi. ar arsebobs
piradi danazogi _ TiToeuli adamiani moixmars mTel Tavis Semosavals. TiTqos aseTi situacia
samudamod gagrZeldeba. 2004-dan 2024 wlamde sami Taobis warmomadgenelTa Semosavlebi
18.3 cxrilis pirvel rigSia mocemuli.
axla ki warmovidginoT, rom mTavroba gadawyvets, isesxos 12000 aSS dolari
sazogadoebrivi moxmarebis dafinansebis mizniT. sesxi dabrunebul unda iqnas 2024 wels.
mxolod axalgazrda da saSualo Taobis warmomadgenlebs surT, asesxon fuli saxelmwifos _
xandazmul Taobas ara aqvs amis survili, radgan misi warmomadgenlebi Tvlian, rom 20 wlis
Semdeg aRar iqnebian cocxlebi da sesxad gacemul fuls ver daibruneben. davuSvaT, rom sesxis
naxevars axalgazrda Taoba, xolo meore naxevars ki saSualo asakis Taoba gascems. amdenad,
TiToeuli individis moxmareba 2004-dan 2024 wlamde 6000 aSS dolariT mcirdeba. aRniSnuli
tendencia kargad aris mocemuli 18.3 cxrilis meore rigSi. sesxis wyalobiT, saxelmwifo
yvelasaTvis Tanabar moxmarebas uzrunvelyofs _ TiToeuli individi iRebs 4000 aSS dolars
(imave cxrilis mesame rigi).
dro gadis. mova 2024 welic. 2004 wlis xandazmulTa Taoba scenas tovebs. yofili saSualo
asakis Taoba axla ukve xandazmulia, axalgazrdebi saSualo asakamde mividnen da gaCnda
sruliad axali Taobac. saxelmwifos sWirdeba 12000 aSS dolari valis gadasaxdelad, amitom igi
TiToeul Taobas 4000 dolaris gadasaxadiT begravs (me-4 rigi). miRebuli sagadasaxado
Semosavlebis wyalobiT, saxelmwifo ubrunebs vals kreditorebs _ axla ukve xandazmuli da
saSualo asakis Taobis warmomadgenlebs (me-5 rigi) (simartivisaTvis Cven CavTvaleT, rom
saprocento ganakveTi nulis tolia, amdenad, saxelmwifom mxolod ZiriTadi Tanxa unda
daabrunos. dadebiTi saprocento ganakveTis dawesebis SemTxvevaSi ar Seicvleboda arsebiTi
Sedegi, rac gulisxmobs imas, rom ar aris saWiro momavali moxmarebis diskontireba imisaTvis,
rom mimdinare Rirebuleba davadginoT).
18.3 cxrilis safuZvelze viRebT aseT Sedegebs:

1. sesxisa da misi Tanmxlebi sagadasaxado politikis wyalobiT, im Taobis moxmarebis

done, romelic xandazmulad iTvleboda 2004 wlidan 2024 wlamde, izrdeba 4000 aSS
dolariT.
2. im TaobaTa moxmarebis done, romlebic 2004-2024 wlebSi axalgazrda da saSualo asakis
Taobad iTvleboda, arc izrdeba da arc mcirdeba.
3. 2024 wels dafiqsirebuli axalgazrda Taobis moxmarebis done 4000 dolariT klebulobs (rac
ase ar iqneboda valisa da misi Tanxlebi fiskaluri politikis ararsebobis SemTxvevaSi).
faqtobrivad, 4000 dolari 2024 wlis axalgazrda Taobidan 2004 wlis xandazmulTa Taobas
gadaeca. 2024 wels valis dafarva gulisxmobs transfers im TaobisaTvis, romelic am momentSi
cocxali iqneba. axalgazrda Taoba yvelaze metad zaraldeba, radgan mas uwevs iseTi valis
dafarva, romliTac arasodes usargeblia. aRsaniSnavia, rom Sida da sagareo vals Soris arsebuli
distinqcia, rac ase mniSvnelovani iyo lerneris modelis mixedviT, sruliad ararelevanturia am
SemTxvevaSi: miuxedavad imisa, rom mTeli vali Sidaa, igi mainc qmnis tvirTs axalgazrda
TaobisaTvis.
18.3 cxrili gvaZlevs saxelmwifo fiskaluri politikis tvirTis (da sargeblis) Sedarebis
saSualebas TaobaTa Soris. es aris erTgvari bunebrivi meTodi, romlis saxelwodebaa
TaobaTaSorisi aRricxva, romelic ramdenime safexurisagan Sedgeba: 1. viRebT TiToeuli
Taobidan erT warmomadgenels da viTvliT saxelmwifos winaSe arsebuli misi sagadasaxado
valdebulebis mimdinare Rirebulebas. 2. viTvliT saxelmwifos mier individisaTvis uzrunvelyofili
nebismieri daxmarebis mimdinare Rirebulebas (saxelmwifo sapensio uzrunvelyofa, `mediqeari~
da a.S.). gadasaxadebisa da saxelmwifo daxmarebis mimdinare Rirebulebebs Soris arsebuli
sxvaoba Taobis am warmomadgenlis mier gadaxdili `wminda gadasaxadia~. sxvadasxva
TaobaTa wminda gadasaxadebis Sedarebis gziT viqmniT warmodgenas imis Sesaxeb, Tu rogor
anawilebs saxelmwifo Semosavals TaobaTa Soris.
am meTodiT Catarebuli gamoTvlebi cxadyofs, rom dRevandeli Taoba momaval
TaobaTa xarjze iRebs sargebels. gokheili, peiji da steroki [1999, gv. 497] amtkicebdnen, rom
mimdinare politikuri kursis SenarCunebis SemTxvevaSi 1980 wels dabadebuli individis mier
gadasaxdeli wminda gadasaxadi misi sicocxlis ganmavlobaSi miRebuli Semosavlis 31% iqneba,
1995 wels dabadebulTaTvis _ 29%, xolo momavali TaobebisaTvis ki _ 49.2%. cxadia, aseTi
gamoTvlebi efuZneba iseT faqtorebs, rogoricaa samomavlo sagadasaxado ganakveTi,
saprocento ganakveTi da a.S. garda amisa, gamoTvlebis dros ugulebelyofilia is faqti, rom
SesaZlebelia, dRevandelma Taobam izrunos rogorc memkvidreebze, aseve sakuTar Tavze (ix.
qvemoT). gamodis, rom TaobaTaSorisi aRricxvis modeli Cvens yuradRebas mimarTavs
saxelmwifo fiskaluri politikis ara wliur Sedegebze, aramed Sedegebze, romlebic aqtualuri iqneba
mTeli sicocxlis ganmavlobaSi. pirobiTi deificitis cifrebis msgavsad, wminda gadasaxadis
gamoTvlis dros kidev bevri sxva faqtoria gasaTvaliswinebeli.
neoklasikuri modeli
Cven mier aqamde ganxiluli TaobaTaSorisi modelebi ar iTvaliswinebs imas, rom
saxelmwifo sasesxo politikam SesaZloa, zemoqmedeba moaxdinos ekonomikur
gadawyvetilebebze; Secvlili gadawyvetileba ki moqmedebs imaze, Tu vis daekisreba valis
tvirTi. piriqiT, miCneuli iyo, rom valis dafarvis mizniT dawesebuli gadasaxadi zemoqmedebas
ar axdenda arc samuSao gadawyvetilebebze da arc danazogze. Tu gadasaxadi cvlis aseT
gadawyvetilebebs, maSin ekonomikas realuri xarji ekisreba.
ufro metic, Cven ugulebelvyaviT sesxis dafinansebis potenciurad mniSvnelovani
zemoqmedeba kapitalis formirebaze. sesxis neoklasikuri modelis Tanaxmad, saxelmwifos mier

proeqtis inicirebis SemTxvevaSi (imis miuxedavad, Tu riTia dafinansebuli igi _ gadasaxadebiT

Tu sesxiT) kerZo seqtoridan fuladi saxsrebi sazogadoebrivi seqtorisaken gadainacvlebs. rodesac
gamoyenebulia sagadasaxado dafinanseba, saxelmwifo seqtorSi gadatanili Tanxa akldeba
moxmarebas. meore mxriv, rodesac saxelmwifo iRebs vals, igi ebmeba konkurenciaSi
individebTan da firmebTan, romelTac agreTve esaWiroebaT fuli sakuTari sainvesticio
proeqtebis gansaxorcieleblad. aseT SemTxvevaSi vali yvelaze did zegavlenas kerZo investiciaze
axorcielebs. sesxis dafinansebis Sedegad momavali Taoba, sxva Tanabar pirobebSi, mcire
moculobis ZiriTadi kapitalis amara rCeba. amdenad, momavali Taoba naklebad produqtiuli
iqneba da ufro mcire realuri Semosavali eqneba, vidre sxva SemTxvevaSi eqneboda. amdenad,
vali, axdens ra zemoqmedebas kapitalis formirebaze, warmoqmnis tvirTs, romelic momaval
Taobas ekisreba (aRsaniSnavia, rom erTaderTi ucvleli faqtori saxelmwifo seqtoris ZiriTadi
kapitali aris. Tu saxelmwifo seqtori rentabelur investicias kerZo seqtoridan amoRebuli fuladi
resursis wyalobiT axorcielebs, mTliani ZiriTadi kapitali izrdeba).
is mosazreba, rom saxelmwifo vali amcirebs kerZo investicias, neoklasikuri analizis dros
uaRresad mniSvnelovan rols TamaSobs. aRniSnuli fenomeni xSirad gamodevnis (Seviwroebis)
hipoTezis saxelwodebiTaa cnobili _ rodesac saxelmwifo seqtori iwyebs investiciisaTvis
xelmisawvdomi resursis gamoyenebas, xdeba kerZo investiciis gamodevna. gamodevna
ganpirobebulia saprocento ganakveTis cvlilebiT. rodesac saxelmwifo zrdis moTxovnas kreditze,
saprocento ganakveTi (anu kreditis fasi) maSinve izrdeba; saprocento ganakveTis zrdis dros ki
kerZo investicia ufro ZviradRirebuli da, Sesabamisad, ufro naklebad xelmisawvdomi da
gamosayenebelia4.
rogorc Cans, am gziT SesaZlebeli iqneba gamodevnis hipoTezis sworxazovani gaSifvra.
ubralod, gavaanalizoT istoriuli kavSiri saprocento ganakveTsa da saxelmwifo deficits Soris
(rogorc proporcia mTliani Sida produqtis mimarT). or cvlads Soris arsebuli dadebiTi
Tanafardoba xazs usvams gamodevnis hipoTezis marTebulobas da piriqiT. deficitis
zemoqmedebis sakiTxi saprocento ganakveTebis Sesaxeb mwvave politikuri debatebis
obieqtivSi 2003 wels moeqca. buSis administraciis biujetis proeqtis (romelic iTvaliswinebda
mniSvnelovan deficits) momxreebi amtkicebdnen, rom mosalodneli iyo umciresi zemoqmedeba
saprocento ganakveTebze, xolo oponentebi amtkicebdnen, rom saprocento ganakveTebi
gaizrdeboda.
samwuxarod, am winaaRmdegobis daZleva erTob rTulia, radgan saprocento ganakveTze
bevri sxva cvladic axdens zemoqmedebas. ase magaliTad, ekonomikuri vardnis periodSi
mcirdeba investicia da masTan erTad _ saprocento ganakveTic. paralelurad, biznesisaTvis
araadekvaturi da araxelsayreli pirobebi Semcirebul sagadasaxado Semosavlebs ganapirobebs,
rac, sxva Tanabar pirobebSi, zrdis deficits. amrigad, monacemebma SesaZloa, saprocento
ganakveTsa da deficits Soris ukuproporciuli damokidebuleba gviCvenon, Tumca es arafers
gveubneba raime formis gamodevnis Sesaxeb. rogorc yovelTvis, axlac Cveni problema deficitis
damoukidebeli efeqtis gansazRvraa saprocento ganakveTebze. rogorc Cven me-2 TavSi
vuCveneT, aseTi saxis problemaTa daregulireba rTulia. ekonometrikis specialistebi am sakiTxs
intensiurad swavlobdnen ramdenime aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi; samwuxarod, aRniSnulma
kvlevam ver uzrunvelyo konkretuli Sedegebi5.
erTob bundovani ekonometrikuli mtkicebulebis miuxedavad, gamodevnis zogierTi forma
imdenad aSkaraa, rom ekonomistTa didi nawili fiqrobs, rom mwvave deficiti ZiriTadi kapitalis
4

saerTaSoriso doneze mobiluri kapitalis pirobebSi, saprocento ganakveTis zrda, romelic sesxiTaa ganpirobebuli,
iwvevs fuladi saxsrebis Semotanas sazRvargareTidan. amis Sedegad izrdeba dolarze moTxovna, misi Rirebuleba da
amerikuli eqsportis fasi. amdenad, gamoidevneba ara Sida investicia, aramed wminda eqsporti. aSS-is ekonomikaSi
gamoidevneba xolme rogorc Sida investicia, aseve eqsporti.
5
ori sxvadasxva Sedegi ixileT geilisa da poteris [2002] da kalomirisisa da hasetis [2002] kvlevebSi.

moculobas amcirebs6. Tumca aravin icis ZiriTadi kapitalisa da momaval TaobaTa keTildReobis
Semcirebis zusti ganakveTis Sesaxeb. erTaderTi, rac viciT, aris is, rom warsulSi arsebuli
deficitebis Sedegad dRes
aSS-is saxelmwifo Semosavali 6%-iT naklebia im Semosavalze,
romelic aSS-s unda mieRo sxva SemTxvevaSi [Ball and Mankiw, 1995, gv. 106]. Tu es
Sefaseba sworia, maSin gamodis, rom deficits aqvs negatiuri, magram ara damRupveli
zegavlena ekonomikaze.
rikardianuli modeli
Cven mier aqamde ganxiluli SemTxvevebis dros absoluturad ugulebelyofili iyo individTa
saerTaSoriso transferis potenciuri mniSvneloba TaobaTa WrilSi. baro [1974] amtkicebda, rom,
saxelmwifos mier sesxis aRebis SemTxvevaSi, `Zveli~ Taobis warmomadgenlebi gaiazreben
imas, rom amiT uaresdeba maTi memkvidreebis finansuri mdgomareoba. Zveli Taoba zrunavs
STamomavalTa keTildReobaze; mamas sulac ar surs, rom Svilis moxmarebis done daeces. risi
gakeTeba SeuZlia Zvel Taobas? mas SeuZlia, gazardos anderZiT datovebuli qoneba misi Svilis
mier momavalSi gadasaxdeli TanxiT. amis Sedegad ki araferi Seicvleba. TiToeuli Taoba zustad
imdenives moixmars, ramdensac moixmarda saxelmwifos mier valis aRebamde. 18.3 modelis
Tanaxmad, 2004 wlis xandazmuli Taoba dazogavs 4000 dolars da mas 2024 wels axalgazrda
Taobas gadascems. am gziT ucvleli iqneba orive Taobis moxmarebis done.
faqtobrivad, kerZo individi aneitralebs saxelmwifos sasesxo politikis efeqts Taobebze da
sagadasaxado da sesxiT dafinanseba, faqtobrivad, ekvivalenturi xdeba. saxelmwifo fiskaluri
politika sruliad umniSvneloa. aseT midgomas ki rikardianuli modeli ewodeba, radgan misi
winamorbedi modeli ganxilulia me-19 saukunis britaneli ekonomistis devid rikardos naSromebSi
(Tavad rikardo yovelTvis skeptikurad udgeboda im models, romelic axla mis saxels atarebs).
baros provokaciuli hipoTeza imis Sesaxeb, rom sruliad umniSvneloa saxelmwifo
fiskaluri politika, seriozuli msjelobis sagans warmoadgens. zogierTisaTvis es idea absoluturad
miuRebelia, radgan igi efuZneba daujerebel da ararsebul daSvebebs. daviwyoT imiT, rom
sakmaod rTulia informaciis mopoveba imis Sesaxeb, Tu ra moculobis sagadasaxado tvirTs
warmoqmnis dRevandeli deficiti; rogorc ukve aRvniSneT am TavSi, bundovania Tavad sesxis
moculobac ki! meore kritikuli Sexeduleba ki is aris, rom mosaxleoba arcTu ise SorsmWvretelia,
rogorc am modelSia warmodgenili.
meore mxriv, Teoriis marTebuloba mowmdeba ara imiT, Tu ramdenad axlos dgas
WeSmaritebasTan Teoriuli daSvebani, aramed imiT, Tu ramdenad marTldeba misi prognozi.
1980-ian wlebSi, skeptikosTa mtkicebiT, mniSvnelovnad gaizarda federaluri deficiti. Tu
rikardianuli modeli marTebulia, maSin Sesabamisad unda gazrdiliyo piradi danazogi. piradi
danazogi ki Semcirda (wminda erovnul produqtTan SedarebiT). cxadia, es monacemi erTgvarad
damafiqrebelia, Tumca ar iZleva raime daskvnis gakeTebis saSualebas, radgan danazogis
ganakveTze, deficitis garda, Zalian bevri faqtori axdens zemoqmedebas. bevri ekonometrikuli
kvleva swavlobda sabiujeto deficitsa da danazogs Soris arsebul damokidebulebas (ix. Smetters
[1999]). argumentebi kvlavac bundovania. rikardianul models ki profesional ekonomistTa Soris
mimdevrebic hyavs da mowinaaRmdegenic.
mimoxilva
valis tvirTis problema gadasaxadis ganawilebis problemis analogiuria, oRond
TaobaTaSoris WrilSi. rogorc sxva msgavs SemTxvevebSi, axlac erTob rTulia valis tvirTis zusti
6

maRali saprocento ganakveTi moizidavs ucxour investicias. amdenad, gamodevnis koeficienti naklebi iqneba.
momaval Taobaze dakisrebuli tvirTis moculoba ki TiTqmis ucvlelia, imitom rom mas ucxoelebisaTvis procentis
gadaxda mouwevs.

gansazRvra. pirvel rigSi, ar aris naTeli, Tu rogor unda moxdes tvirTis identificireba. valis tvirTi
fasdeba: (1) erTi Taobis (daaxloebiT Tanabari asakis adamianTa) moxmarebis potencialis
mixedviT an (2) im adamianTa moxmarebis mixedviT, romlebic cocxlebi arian mocemul
momentSi. adekvaturi ganmartebis arsebobis pirobebSic ki tvirTis arseboba damokidebulia
Semdeg sakiTxebze: Sidaa vali Tu sagareo? ra zemoqmedebas axdens sesxis politika sxvadasxva
ekonomikur gadawyvetilebaze? ra saxis proeqtebia dafinansebuli sesxiT? am faqtorTa Seswavlis
mizniT ramdenime empiriuli kvleva Catarda kidec. Tumca jerjerobiT raime konsensusi ar
arsebobs.

gadasaxadi Tu vali?
2003 wels, erayTan omis dawyebis dros, prezidentma buSma ganacxada, rom omis
dafinansebas 75 miliardi aSS dolari dasWirdeboda. maSinve gaimarTa cxare kamaTi imis
Sesaxeb, Tu rogor unda dafinansebuliyo omi _ gadasaxadebis gazrdis Tu valis damatebis gziT?
arCevanis gakeTeba valsa da gadasaxads Soris aris sajaro finansebis winaSe arsebuli erT-erTi
yvelaze mniSvnelovani SekiTxva. Cven ukve vimsjeleT valis tvirTis Sesaxeb; amdenad, axla
yvelaze kargi droa imisaTvis, rom ganvixiloT ramdenime midgoma, romelic garkveulwilad
naTels mohfens am SekiTxvas.
sargeblis miRebis principi
es aris damoukidebeli normatiuli principi, romlis Tanaxmadac, konkretuli saxelmwifo
xarjviTi programis beneficiari valdebulia, gadaixados safasuri miRebuli sargeblisaTvis.
programa qmnis sargebels momavali TaobisaTvis. amdenad, upriani iqneboda sesxis
dafinansebis gziT momaval Taobaze gagvenawilebina valis tvirTi. adekvaturi magaliTi aris
sesxis aReba swavlis safasuris gadasaxdelad, rac zrdis studentis momaval Semosavlebs.
TaobaTaSorisi Tanasworoba
davuSvaT, rom teqnologiuri progresis wyalobiT, Cveni SviliSvilebi Cvenze mdidrebi
iqnebian. Tuki Taobis SigniT Semosavali nawildeba mdidridan Raribze, ratom ar nawildeba
Semosavali mdidari Taobidan Rarib Taobaze? cxadia, im SemTxvevaSi, Tu mosalodnelia Cveni
STamomavlebis CvenTan SedarebiT gaRaribeba (davuSvaT, araganaxlebadi resursebis
amowurvis Sedegad), maSin Semosavali zustad sawinaaRmdego mimarTulebiT unda
ganawildes.
efeqtianoba
efeqtianobis poziciidan, aucilebelia imis dadgena, Tu romeli warmoqmnis ufro mZime
zedmet tvirTs _ vali Tu gadasaxadi. am kiTxvaze pasuxis gasacemad aucilebelia, gaviazroT is
faqti, rom saxelmwifos danaxarjis nebismieri zrda sabolood gazrdili gadasaxadebis xarjze unda
dafinansdes. gadasaxadebiT dafinansebasa da sesxiT dafinansebas Soris arCevanis gakeTeba,
ubralod, droiTi upiratesobis dadgenis sakiTxia. gadasaxadebiT dafinansebis SemTxvevaSi
danaxarjis gawevis momentSi msxvili Tanxis erTjeradi gadaxda warmoebs. sesxiT dafinansebis
SemTxvevaSi warmoebs mcire Tanxebis mravaljeradi gadaxda (sesxis procentebis gadaxda). ase
rom, sagadasaxado Semosavlebis mimdinare Rirebuleba orive SemTxvevaSi Tanabari unda iyos.
Tu orive meTodis SemTxvevaSi sagadasaxado Semosavlebis mimdinare Rirebuleba
Tanabaria, aqvs ki raime azri romelime maTganisaTvis upiratesobis miniWebas, Tundac
efeqtianobis poziciidan gamomdinare? simartivisaTvis davuSvaT, rom valiT dafinansebis

SemTxvevaSi moxdeba SromiTi Semosavlebis dabegvra. rogorc me-13 TavSia [(13.4) formula]
miTiTebuli, aseTi gadasaxadi cvlis gadawyvetilebebs Sromis miwodebis Sesaxeb, rac iwvevs
Semdegi zedmeti tvirTis warmoqmnas:
1 wLt 2 ,
2

sadac samuSao saaTebis kompensirebuli elastiurobaa xelfasTan mimarTebaSi, w aris

daubegravi xelfasi, L _ namuSevari saaTebis raodenoba, t ki _ Rirebulebis sagadasaxado
ganakveTi. aRsaniSnavia, rom zedmeti tvirTi sagadasaxado ganakveTis kvadratiT izrdeba _
rodesac sagadasaxado ganakveTi ormagdeba, zedmeti tvirTis moculoba oTxmagdeba. dabal
sagadasaxado ganakveTTan, anu t1-Tan asocirebuli zedmeti tvirTi aris 1 , xolo maRal
sagadasaxado ganakveTTan, anu t2-Tan asocirebuli zedmeti tvirTi ki iqneba 2 . efeqtianobis
poziciidan gamomdinare, upriani iqneba t1 ganakveTiT orjer dabegvra, vidre erTxel - t2
ganakveTiT. sesxiT dafinanseba dakavSirebulia SedarebiT mcire moculobis Tanxebis
mravaljerad gadaxdasTan. amdenad, efeqtianobis poziciidan gamomdinare, sesxiT dafinanseba
ufro gamarTlebulia, vidre gadasaxadebiT dafinanseba.
cxrili 18.1
argumenti garkveulwilad gamarTlebulia. samwuxarod, igi ugulebelyofs erT
mniSvnelovan faqtors _ valis zrda, amcirebs ra ZiriTadi kapitalis moculobas, kidev ufro met
zedmet tvirTs warmoqmnis7. amdenad, SromiTi miwodebis poziciidan, SesaZloa, ufro efeqtiani
sesxiT dafinanseba iyos, magram igi naklebad efeqtiani iqneba kapitalis ganTavsebis poziciidan.
apriori bundovania, Tu romeli efeqtia ufro mniSvnelovani; amdenad, Cven ar Segvwevs imis
unari, CavwvdeT, Tu romelia ufro efeqtiani _ sesxiT dafinanseba Tu gadasaxadebiT
dafinanseba.
amdenad, `gamodevnis~ hipoTeza, romelic mniSvnelovan sagans warmoadgenda valis
TaobaTaSorisi tvirTis Sesaxeb gamarTul msjelobaTa dros, mniSvnelovania efeqtianobis
TvalsazrisiTac. rikardianuli modelis Tanaxmad, gamodevnas adgili ara aqvs. amdenad,
gadasaxadi axdens zemoqmedebas mxolod Sromis miwodebis arCevanze, swored amitom sesxiT
dafinanseba, efeqtianobis poziciidan, erTmniSvnelovnad ukeTesia. Tumca, rodesac adgili aqvs
kerZo investiciis gamodevnas, maSin gadasaxadiT dafinanseba ufro mimzidveli xdeba. sanam ar
miviRebT raime konkretul daskvnas gamodevnis Sesaxeb, Cven ver vimsjelebT sesxiT
dafinansebisa da gadasaxadiT dafinansebis Rirsebaze, efeqtianobis poziciidan gamomdinare.
makroekonomikuri mosazrebani
aqamde Cven vuSvebdiT, rom yvela resursi mTlianad gamoyenebulia. aseTi daSveba
adekvaturia ekonomikis grZelvadiani tendenciebis dasaxasiaTeblad. ra arCevani gavakeToT
gadasaxadisa da deficitis dafinansebas Soris moklevadian perspeqtivaSi, rodesac arsebobs
umuSevrobis SesaZlebloba? keinziseuli standartuli makroekonomikuri modelis mixedviT,
arCevani damokidebulia umuSevrobis doneze. rodesac umuSevrobis done Zalian dabalia,
damatebiT saxelmwifo danaxarjebs inflaciamde mivyavarT, amdenad, aucilebeli iqneba kerZo
seqtoridan xarjvis Zalauflebis amoqaCva, anu gadasaxadebis gazrda. xolo, rodesac umuSevroba
maRalia, moTxovnis stimulirebis mizniT deficitis warmoqmna aucilebelia. am midgomas zogjer
funqcionaluri finansebi ewodeba, rac erToblivi moTxovnis adekvatur doneze SesanarCuneblad

ufro zustad, kidev ufro meti zedmeti tvirTi warmoiqmneba, rodesac ZiriTadi kapitali optimalur doneze dabla
imyofeba (davuSvaT, kapitalur Semosavalze gadasaxadis arsebobis gamo) [ix. Feldstein, 1985, gv. 234].

gadasaxadebisa da deficitis gamoyenebas gulixsmobs. am dros aRar dagvWirdeba calke zrunva

biujetis dabalansebaze.
1970-ian wlebSi keinziseuli konsensusi kargavs aqtualobas. masTan erTad ingreva
universaluri warmodgenebi funqcionaluri finansebis Sesaxeb. makroekonomikuri Teoriis
zogierTi faqtori ipyrobs Cvens yuradRebas, Tumca am faqtorebis ganxilvamde xazi unda
gaesvas Semdeg sakiTxebs:

Tu marTebulia baros TaobaTaSorisi altruistuli modeli, maSin adamianebs SeuZliaT

saxelmwifo sasesxo politikis Sedegebis ganeitraleba. mTavrobas ekonomikis
dastabilureba ar SeuZlia8.
keinziseuli modelis mixedviTac ki arsebobs didi ganusazRvreloba imis irgvliv, Tu ra
periodi sWirdeba fiskalur politikur cvlilebas imisaTvis, rom moaxdinos cvlileba
dasaqmebis doneze. Tumca umuSevrobis warmatebuli politika adekvatur droiT
grafiks moiTxovs. grafikis gareSe SesaZloa, ekonomikis stimulireba maSinac ki
gagrZeldes, rodesac es ukve aRar aris saWiro, rac Sedegad inflacias mogvitans.
moraluri da politikuri aspeqtebi
zogierTi mkvlevaris azriT, arCevanis gakeTeba gadasaxadiT dafinansebasa da sesxiT
dafinansebas Soris moraluri sakiTxia. mwvave deficiti `ar aris ubralod an upirvelesad
ekonomikuri sakiTxi, igi moralur naklovanebasa da sazogadoebrivi xasiaTis simaxinjeebze
miuTiTebs [Will, 1985A]. moralurobis winapiroba TavdaWerilobaa; deficiti ki TavdaWerilobis
Zalian dabal doneze mianiSnebs; amdenad, deficiti amoraluria. aracxadi daSveba imis Sesaxeb,
rom sesxi amoraluria, am sakiTxis irgvliv mimdinare politikuri debatebis dros xSirad ganixileba.
rogorc ukve ramdenjerme aRvniSneT, eTikuri sakiTxebi saxelmwifo politikis formirebis
procesSi friad aqtualuria; amdenad, is argumenti, rom deficiti amoraluria, seriozul mopyrobas
imsaxurebs. es normatiuli mosazreba mTlianad eqvemdebareba daumtkicebel pozitiur hipoTezas
imis Sesaxeb, rom valis tvirTi gadaecema momaval Taobebs. ufro metic, gaugebaria, Tu ratom
aris es konkretuli normatiuli mosazreba ufro dominanturi, vidre sargeblis miRebis principi,
romelic sesxis aRebas moralur uflebad miiCnevs.
albaT, deficitis sawinaaRmego ufro mZlavr araekonomikur argumentad politikuri
argumenti gamodgeba. rogorc me-6 TavSi aRvniSneT, politikuri procesi naklebi RirebulebiT
afasebs saxelmwifo danaxarjs da zedmeti RirebulebiT saxelmwifo sargebels. dabalansebuli
biujetis disciplinis wyalobiT, SesaZlebeli gaxdeba sargeblisa da danaxarjis ufro zusti Rirebulebis
dadgena; am gziT SesaZlebeli iqneba saxelmwifo seqtoris Warbi zrdis SeCereba.
bevri mkvlevari darwmunebulia imaSi, rom saxelmwifo Zalian bevrs xarjavs. Tumca,
zogierTi mkvlevaris azriT, deficitma SesaZloa, Seasrulos saxelmwifo danaxarjebis efeqtiani
muxruWis roli. nobelis premiis laureatis milton fridmanis [2003, gv. A10] pirobiTi mosazrebis
Tanaxmad, saxelmwifo xarjebis done fiqsirebulia imis miuxedavad, arsebobs Tu ara deficiti.
aseT SemTxvevaSi gadasaxadebis zrdis Sedegad SesaZlebeli gaxdeba deficitis Sevseba. Tumca
fridmani ambobs, rom ufro racionaluri iqneba, warmovidginoT iseTi modeli, sadac saxelmwifo
danaxarji ar iqneba fiqsirebuli _ iRebs ra saxelmwifo met sagadasaxado Semosavals, xarjavs
kidec mas. `winaswar gansazRvrulia ara xarjva, aramed politikurad dasaSvebi deficiti.
gadasaxadebi unda gaizardos imisaTvis, rom davamarcxoT arsebuli deficiti da politikurad
dasaSveb deficits mivaRwioT ~. saxelmwifos xarjviTi nawilis damuxruWebis ukeTesi strategia
8

ufro zustad, mosalodneli politikuri cvlileba ver moaxdens zemoqmedebas. Tumca moulodnel cvlilebas SesaZloa,
hqondes zemoqmedeba _ ganmartebis Tanaxmad, individs ar SeuZlia, qcevis stili Secvalos.

gadasaxadebis Semcirebaa. `am dros warmoiqmneba iseTi deficiti, romelic aiZulebs

aRmasrulebel xelisuflebasa da sakanonmdeblo organoebs, Tavi Seikavon didi xarjis
gawevisagan~. rogorc me-6 TavSi xazgasmiT aRiniSna, Zalian rTulia saxelmwifo xarjvis
Sesaxeb arsebuli Teoriebis marTlzomierebis Sefaseba. fridmanis mosazrebac erTgvari
hipoTezaa, romelic mudmivad gvaxsenebs, Tu politikuri rekomendaciebis SemuSavebis dros
raoden mniSvnelovania politikuri garemos gaTvaliswineba.

mimoxilva
saxelmwifo vali friad amaRelvebeli da rTuli sakiTxia. ai, is ZiriTadi Sedegi, rac miviReT
am TavSi mocemuli analizis Sedegad:

mocemuli periodis deficiti damokidebulia sabuxhaltro aRricxvis meTodze. es faqti

xazs usvams deficitTan, proficitTan da sesxTan dakavSirebuli nebismieri cifris
TviTmyofadobas.
proficitis da deficitis Sedegebis Sefaseba erTob rTuli, Tumca potenciurad friad
mniSvnelovania. Tundac Cven zustad vicodeT, Tu ra zemoqmedebas hqonda
adgili, sesxis politikis Sedegi mainc damokidebuli iqneba iseT eTikur
mosazrebebze, romlebic exeba Semosavlis TaobaTaSoris ganawilebas.

amrigad, arcTu ise mniSvnelovani iqneba, SevafasoT saxelmwifo seqtoris ekonomikuri

saqmianoba calke, oficialuri deficitis an proficitis moculobis safuZvelze. deficiti ar aris
aucileblad cudi, xolo proficiti ki _ aucileblad kargi. ufro mniSvnelovania imis dadgena, aris Tu
ara optimalur doneze saxelmwifo momsaxureba, gansakuTrebiT, Tu viTvaliswinebT im
resursebis Rirebulebas, romlebic saWiroa am momsaxurebis gasawevad. saxelmwifo xarjvisa da
dafinansebis Sesaxeb cxare kamaTi mimdinareobs, rac demokratiuli saxelmwifosaTvis ase
mniSvnelovania. deficitis Sedegebisa da dafinansebis sxva formebis gaTvaliswineba
mniSvnelovani da Rirebulia sazogadoebisaTvis. miuxedavad amisa, liberalebisa da
konservatorebis tendencia, Seafason saxelmwifo finansebis mdgomareoba mxolod deficitis
safuZvelze, sruliad uSedegoa da diskusiaTa procesSi gaurkvevlobas qmnis.

daskvna

vali saxelmwifos dafinansebis mniSvnelovani saSualebaa. Tu periodis

ganmavlobaSi danaxarji aRemateba Semosavlebs, warmoiqmneba deficiti; xolo Tu
Semosavlebi aRemateba danaxarjebs, warmoiqmneba proficiti; vali mocemul
periodSi warmoadgens warsulSi arsebuli deficitisa da proficitis algebrul jams.
federaluri saxelmwifo deficitis, proficitisa da valis Sesaxeb arsebul oficialur
monacemebs sifrTxiliT unda movekidoT Semdegi mizezebis gamo:
Statebi da municipalitetebic soliduri daufaravi valdebulebebiT xasiaTdebian.
inflacia amcirebs sesxis realur Rirebulebas; oficialuri deficiti an proficiti arasodes
afiqsirebs am faqts.
federaluri mTavroba ar ganasxvavebs erTmaneTisagan kapitalur da mimdinare
danaxarjebs. Tumca federaluri mTavrobisaTvis kapitaluri biujetis formirebis mcdeloba
SesaZloa, sruli kraxiT dasruldes rogorc konceptualuri, aseve politikuri problemebis gamo.
aucilebelia, mxedvelobaSi miRebul iqnes rogorc saxelmwifos materialuri aqtivi, aseve
mTavrobis aracxadi valdebulebani (magaliTad, gadaxdis piroba saxelmwifo sapensio
uzrunvelyofis an `mediqearis~ sistemis mxridan).

gaurkvevelia, ekisreba Tu ara momaval Taobas sesxis mTeli tvirTi. arsebobs

mosazreba, romlis Tanaxmadac, Sida vali ar warmoqmnis tvirTs momavali
TaobisaTvis, radgan es aris ubralo TaobaTaSorisi transferi. Tumca Tanmxvedr
TaobaTa modelis mixedviT, sesxiT dafinansebis gziT SesaZloa, momaval Taobas
realuri tvirTi davakisroT.
valis tvirTi damokidebulia imaze, Tu ramdenad gamodevnis vali kerZo investicias.
Tu marTla gamodevnis, maSin momaval Taobebs eqneba ufro mcire ZiriTadi
kapitali da, amdenad, sxva Tanabar pirobebSi, dabali realuri Semosavali.
rikaridianuli modelis Tanaxmad, TaobaTa Soris ganxorcielebuli nebayoflobiTi
transferi sesxis politikis zegavlenas aneitralebs ise, rom kerZo investiciis
gamodevna saerTod aRar xdeba.
saxelmwifo danaxarjis gadasaxadiT dafinansebasa da sesxiT dafinansebas Soris
arCevanis gakeTebis dros aucilebelia ramdenime faqtoris gaTvaliswineba.
sargeblis miRebis principis Tanaxmad, Tu proeqti sargebels moutans momaval
Taobebs, maSin misi ganxorcieleba sesxiT dafinansebis gziT sruliad racionaluria.
garda amisa, Tu mosalodnelia, rom momavali Taoba ufro mdidari iqneba, vidre
dRevandeli, maSin, Tanasworobis principebidan gamomdinare, adekvaturi iqneba,
Tu maTze moxdeba tvirTis garkveuli doziT ganawileba.
efeqtianobis poziciidan, aucilebelia SevadaroT zedmeti tvirTi, romelic
warmoiqmneba gadasaxadebiT dafinansebis SemTxvevaSic da sesxiT dafinansebis
SemTxvevaSic. Tu ar xdeba kerZo investiciis gamodevna, maSin sesxi nakleb
zedmet tvirTs warmoqmnis, radgan mcire Tanxebis mravaljerad gadaxdas
moiTxovs. amis Sedegad warmoiqmneba mcire tvirTi, vidre erTjeradi da didi
gadasaxadis gadaxdis SemTxvevaSi. Tumca Tu adgili eqneba kerZo investiciis
gamodevnas, maSin SesaZloa, yvelaferi piriqiT moxdes.

sadiskusio SekiTxvebi
1. ra zegavlenas moaxdens qvemoT CamoTvlili movlenebi saxelmwifo valze misi
amJamindeli Sefasebis safuZvelze?
a. mTavroba iRebs sesxs xsovnis dRis aRlumis dasafinanseblad.
b. Tavisuflebis qandakeba gayidulia kerZo mewarmeebis jgufze.
g. mtkicdeba kanoni, romlis Tanaxmad, ufaso samedicino momsaxurebiT isargeblebs 5
wlamde asakis yvela bavSvi.
d. mTavroba 100 dolariT begravs lins am wels da aZlevs momaval wels 105 dolaris gadaxdis
pirobas.
e. mTavroba linisagan sesxulobs 100 dolars, xolo momaval wels ki ubrunebs 100 dolars 5%ian ganakveTTan erTad.
warmoidgineT, rom Tqven awarmoebT mTavrobis buRaltrul aRricxvas. rogor
aRricxavdiT TiToeul movlenas?
2. 1970-iani wlebis frangi sajaro moxele, montioni, ambobda: `didi britaneTi oms
gadasaxadebiT ki ara, sesxis saSualebiT afinansebs. Cven ki omis dros gvCvevia xolme
gadasaxadebis gazrda [Saegent and Velde, 1995]. montioni fiqrobda, rom britanuli
politika saukeTeso iyo. eTanxmebiT Tu ara mis mosazrebas? ramdenad Seesabameba
Tqveni pasuxi rikardianul models?
3. Sikis Tanaxmad [2002, gv. 46], `1990-iani wlebis bolos warmoqmnilma proficitma
saTave daudo aranormalur xarjvas. man daarRvia diskreciuli xarjvis zeda zRvari, romelic
dadgenili iyo 1990 wlis kanoniT biujetis Sesaxeb da sasacilo gaxada aRniSnuli kanonis
moTxovna, romelic gazrdili xarjvis kompensirebas danaxarjebis sxva muxlebis
Semcirebis an Semosavlebis zrdis gziT iTvaliswinebda. ganixileT am movlenis

damokidebuleba milton fridmanis mosazrebasTan da gaaanalizeT deficitsa da

saxelmwifo xarjvas Soris arsebuli urTierToba.
4. davuSvaT, rom Sromis miwodebis kompensirebuli elastiuroba xelfasTan mimarTebaSi
aris nulis toli. efeqtianobis poziciidan, ra iqneba sesxiT dafinansebasa da gadasaxadiT
dafinansebas Soris gakeTebuli optimaluri arCevanis Sedegi?
5. 2000 wels ohaios senatorma jorj voinoviCma aRniSna: `jansaRi azri gveubneba, rom
Cveni upirvelesi movaleoba unda iyos biujetis proficitis gamoyeneba saxelmwifo valis
dasafarad. Tqveni komentari am sityvebze.
6. 2002 wlis Statebis mdgomareobis amsaxvel angariSSi jorj buSma ganacxada: `imisaTvis,
rom mivaRwioT iseT naTel saxelmwifo miznebs, rogoricaa: omSi gamarjveba,
samSoblos dacva, ekonomikis aRorZineba, Cveni biujeti unda xasiaTdebodes mcire da
moklevadiani deficitiT. ra pirobebSia racionaluri deficitis gamoyeneba omis
dasafinanseblad?

gamoyenebuli literatura
Elmendorf, Douglas W, and N Gregory Mankiw. Government Debt. In Handbook of
macroeconomics, volume 1C, eds. John B.Taylor and Michael Woodford. Amsterdam: NorthHollard, 1999.
Kotlikoff, Laurence J. Generational Policy. Working Paper No. 8163. Cambridge, MA:
National Bureau of Economic Research, March 2001.