May 22nd, 2015

Global Currencies Overview

After early weakness and EURUSD trading all the way back above 1.1200 intraday, a higher than expected
core CPI reading from the US for April lit a fire under the greenback, which powered back to the strong side
across the board, even threatening 1.1000 in EURUSD. This looks like a powerful signal for potential further
strength next week as well be looking for follow through beyond the next key levels including 1.10 in
EURUSD, 122.00 in USDJPY, 1.5450 in GBPUSD, and 0.9500 in USDCHF.

GBPUSD reversed all of yesterdays gains, offering todays most interesting reversal of fortune for any major
currency pair. EURGBP bears were in for a scare intraday as the pair rallied well back above the 0.7115
break line, though it settled lower later in the day. Still, this suggests signs of a softening downtrend and it
will be interesting to see how that pair behaves if GBPUSD is blasted back below the important 1.5450 level
next week. Technically, the bearish case in EURGBP is in mortal danger if we trade and close back above
todays highs next week.

EURUSD
The last important line of support
here is the 1.1000 area, below which
we can theoretically discuss levels
like the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
at 1.0885, but the focus will likely
shift quickly to the sub-1.0500 lows
for the cycle.

GBPUSD
A particularly interesting pattern
reversal today as yesterdays sharp
rally yielded to todays sharp selloff
and sets the focus on the 1.5450 line
in the sand drawn this week and if
broken, beyond toward perhaps
1.5250 or even all the way to the
61.8% Fibonacci toward 1.5050.

USDCHF
A particularly compelling level here is
the 0.9500 as the timeline for a
Greece announcement is looking very
compressed. This was the big focus
previously and the 200-day moving
average is up there as well.

EURJPY
EURJPY continues to follow EURUSD
weakly will be interesting to see if this
continues if EURUSD is below 1.1000
next week and if USDJPY finally breaks
the long-established highs near 122.00.
If we see further downside followthrough next week, the focus could
quickly shift to the Ichimoku cloud level
below 131.50.