Chuong 4 - Tong Cung Va Mo Hinh Duong Phillips (Gui SV)

KINH T V M II
CHNG IV:
TNG CUNG V
NG PHILLIPS
CHNG IV: TNG CUNG V

NG PHILLIPS
I. Cc m hnh ng tng cung
1. Khi qut chung v tng cung
a. Khi nim
Tng cung (Aggregate Supply: AS) l tng khi
lng HH - DV m cc tc nhn trong nc
mong mun v c kh nng cung cp tng
ng vi mi mc gi chung, mc CPSX v gii
hn kh nng SX cn cc yu t KT khc cho
trc (khng i).
01/12/2010
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

b. ng tng cung
ng tng cung biu din mi quan h gia
mc gi chung v lng HH - DV cung ng.
Chng ta cn xem xt 2 trng hp:
Trong di hn: khi gi c hon ton
Trong ngn hn: khi gi c mt s HH - DV
01/12/2010

b.1. ng tng cung di hn
ng AS di hn (ASLR)
Bi trong di hn khi gi c iu chnh
mnh mi th trng trong c th trng
cc nhn t SX u trng thi cn bng. Cn
bng th trng cc nhn t SX c ngha l mi
ngun lc u c s dng y .
01/12/2010

Khi ngun lc SX c s dng ht cung v
HH - DV (ASLR) s
Ch ph thuc vo cung v cc nhn t SX nh
Khng ph thuc vo
01/12/2010
ng tng cung di hn
P
Y
01/12/2010

b.2. ng tng cung ngn hn
ng AS ngn hn (ASSR) l ng m t mi
quan h gia tng SL v mc gi chung khi
Mc d c nhiu m hnh tng cung khc nhau
nhng u c kt lun chung l
01/12/2010

Phng trnh c bn ca ng ASSR c dng:
Trong :
01/12/2010

dc ca ng ASSR ph thuc vo
Nu = 0
Nu rt ln
01/12/2010
2. Cc m hnh ng tng cung

ngn hn
C 4 m hnh khc nhau gii thch v ng
tng cung ngn hn:
(1)
M hnh
(2)
M hnh
(3)
M hnh
(4)
M hnh
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10
a. M hnh tin lng cng nhc

(The Sticky Wage Model)
Theo m hnh ny, ng ASSR dc ln v tin
lng danh ngha
S cng nhc ny mt phn do hp ng L di
hn gia DN v CN.
* Gi nh:
Khi mc c tin lng, c DN v CN u c

mc tiu nht nh v tin lng thc t m h s
tha thun.
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11
Trong hp ng c k kt, cc iu khon

c lp theo
xc nh tin lng danh ngha, cc DN v
CN da trn k vng v mc gi chung (Pe):
Trong : w l mc tiu v
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12
Cu v L quyt nh s L c thu
Theo l thuyt tn c in, DN s la chn
bng cch cn bng sn phm cn bin ca L
vi tin lng thc t:
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13

Hm cu v lao ng c dng:
Sn lng c quyt nh bi hm sn xut:
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14
Nu P =
Pe th:
Khi :
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15
Nu P >
Pe th:
L tr nn r hn. Do cc DN s thu nhiu

L v sn lng s tng.
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16
Nu P <
Pe th:
L tr nn t hn. Do cc DN s ct gim
L v sn lng s gim.
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17

M hnh ny hm rng chng ta c th biu
din ng tng cung bng phng trnh:
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18
01/12/2010
19
b. M hnh nhn thc sai lm ca cng

nhn (The Misperception Model)
M hnh ny do Milton Friedman a ra nm
1968. Ging nh m hnh tin lng cng
nhc, m hnh nhn thc sai lm ca CN mt
ln na
Tuy nhin, n khc m hnh tin lng cng
nhc nhng gi nh sau:
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20
b. M hnh nhn thc sai lm ca CN

* Gi nh:
Tin lng
Cu L ph thuc tin lng thc t

cung L ph thuc tin lng thc t
l v DN v CN c gi thit l c thng tin
khc nhau v mc gi:
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21
Nu mc gi cao hn mc gi m CN d kin
V CN thy tin lng thc t

do sn lng s tng.
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22
Nu mc gi thp hn mc gi m CN d kin
V CN thy tin lng thc t

do sn lng s gim.
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23
01/12/2010
24

Kt lun rt ra t MH ny l ng tng cung
cng dc ln.
Tuy nhin, ng tng cung trong m hnh ny
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25
c. M hnh thng tin khng hon ho

(The Imperfect Information Model)
M hnh ny do R. Lucas a ra vo u nhng nm
1970 mt phn nhm chnh thc ha MH nhn thc sai
lm ca CN do M. Friedman a ra nm 1968. V th,
ng AS a ra da trn MH ny i khi gi l
Ging MH nhn thc sai lm ca CN, MH thng tin
khng hon ho cng da trn gi thit
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26

* Gi nh:
Khng phn bit CN v DN. C CN v DN
DN bit c gi c hng ha m h SX nhng

khng quan st c mc gi chung,
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27
V d: Gi s c mt c sc lm tng gi.
DN khng th phn bit mt cch hon ho
rng l:
C sc lm tng mc gi chung (khng lm
thay i gi tng i) v do
C sc lm tng gi c cho cc sn phm ca
DN (lm thay i gi tng i) v do
01/12/2010
28

Phn ng tt nht ca DN
DN quyt nh SX bao nhiu ph thuc vo mc gi

m h d kin Pe.
Tm li, MH thng tin khng hon ho cng khng
nh rng
01/12/2010
29
d. M hnh gi c cng nhc

(The Sticky Price Model)
MH gi c cng nhc a ra mt quan nim rt
khc v hnh vi ca cc DN.
Chng ta vn gi nh DN la chn mc SX m h
c th bn c ti mc gi cho trc.
Tuy nhin, trong thc t cc DN thng
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30
Mc gi bn p m DN mun quy nh ph thuc

vo 2 bin s:
Mc gi chung P:
Thu nhp Y:
01/12/2010
31

Ta c th vit gi m DN mun quy nh nh sau:
Trong a > 0
Phng trnh ny cho thy gi mong mun ca
DN p ph thuc vo
Gi s trong nn KT c 2 loi DN:
01/12/2010
32
DN c gi c cng nhc chim t trng s

DN n nh gi c v duy tr n trong mt khong
thi gian. H nh gi trn c s k vng v nhng
iu kin KT trong tng lai. n gin chng ta
gi nh cc DN ny
Khi gi m DN quy nh l
01/12/2010
33
DN c gi c linh hot chim t trng (1 - s)

Mc gi chung trong nn KT l trung bnh gia quyn
ca 2 loi gi:
01/12/2010
34
Nu SL mc t nhin
Nu tng cu cao, do
Cu cao khin cc DN c gi c linh hot tng gi.

S thay i ca mc gi chung trc cc c sc v
sn lng
01/12/2010
35

T phng trnh:
a (1 s )
PP
(Y Y )
s
e
Ta c:
01/12/2010
36

Hay:
Trong :
Ging nh cc MH khc, MH gi c cng nhc

cng hm
01/12/2010
37

Tuy nhin, c s khc bit rt ln ch m
hnh ny cho rng
ch khng phi
nh 3 m hnh trc.
Mc d vy, tt c 4 m hnh th c sn lng
v mc gi u l cc bin ni sinh.
01/12/2010
38

s
e
T phng trnh: Y Y
(P P )
a (1 s )
Y Y (P P )
e
Khi nn KT c nhiu DN vi gi c cng nhc mc

gi s gn mc d kin.
01/12/2010
39
e. Kt lun chung
4 m hnh v
ng ASSR
u cho rng
SL s khc
mc SL t
nhin khi mc
gi sai lch so
vi d kin.
01/12/2010
40
e. Kt lun chung
Tuy nhin, 4 MH cp n cc th trng khc
nhau v c quan nim khc nhau v s hot
ng ca cc th trng trong nn KT.
MH tin lng cng nhc v nhn thc sai lm

ca CN
MH thng tin khng hon ho v gi c cng

nhc
01/12/2010
41
e. Kt lun chung
MH tin lng cng nhc v gi c cng nhc

cho rng
cn bng cung cu trong ngn hn
MH thng tin khng hon ho v nhn thc sai

lm ca CN li nhn mnh n
trong vic gii
thch cc bin ng KT ngn hn.
01/12/2010
42
II. ng Phillips
1. Gii thiu ng Phillips
Nm 1958, gio s A. W. Phillips hc vin
KT London cho ng 1 bi bo mang tiu
Mi quan h gia tht nghip v t l thay i
tin lng danh ngha Anh giai on 1861
1957 trn t tp ch KT hc ca Anh. Trong
bi bo , Phillips ch ra mi tng quan
01/12/2010
43

Hai nm sau khi Phillips cng b kt qu nghin cu,
P. A Samuelson v R. Solow cho ng bi bo trong
t im bo KT M di tiu Cc phn tch v
chnh sch chng LP, trong h cng ch ra mi
quan h tng t gia tht nghip v LP khi nghin
cu s liu nn KT M.
P. A Samuelson v R. Solow gi mi quan h
01/12/2010
44
Mi quan h gia t l tht nghip v

t l LP trong ngn hn
01/12/2010
45

ng Phillips cung cp cho cc nh hoch nh
chnh sch mt thc n v cc kt cc KT c
th xy ra.
01/12/2010
46

Tuy nhin, vic la chn yu t no nh i
cn ph thuc vo dc ca ng Phillips.
Chng hn, khi ng Phillips rt dc
01/12/2010
47
u
01/12/2010
48
2. Xy dng ng Phillips t
ng tng cung
a. Xy dng ng Phillips
Thc ra, ng Phillips ch l mt cch biu din
khc ca ng ASSR. ng ASSR ch ra mi quan
h t l thun gia mc gi v SL.
V LP l t l thay i ca mc gi v tht nghip
bin ng ngc chiu vi SL, cho nn ng ASSR
cng cho thy mi quan h
01/12/2010
49
Ta c th xy dng phng trnh ng Phillips
t ng tng cung ngn hn:
Y Y (P P )
e
01/12/2010
50
Vi P-1 l gi c ca thi k trc , ta c:
Trong e l
01/12/2010
51
Vn dng Quy lut Okun (nu %u = + 1% th
%Y = - 2,5%) ch ra rng cc c sc lm
tng SL s i km vi tht nghip thp hn ta c
th biu din:
Th ta s c:
01/12/2010
52
Cui cng ng Phillips hin i thng c
iu chnh vi s tha nhn rng i khi c
nhng c sc cung v:
Nh vy, theo Phillips, t l LP trong mt thi k

nht nh ph thuc vo 3 nhn t:
01/12/2010
53
Lm pht d kin,
lch ca tht nghip thc t so vi mc t

nhin (u un), gi l tht nghip chu k.
Cc c sc cung, v
01/12/2010
54
T phng trnh ng Phillips:
(u u ) v
e
cho thy nu lm pht hay tht nghip thay i th s

c s
Do vy, vic iu tit tng cu thng qua cc
CSTK v CSTT n gin ch lm nn kinh t

01/12/2010
55
u
01/12/2010
56
Tuy nhin, t l LP d kin v cc c sc cung
thng c coi l nm ngoi tm kim sot trc
tip ca cc nh hoch nh CS. Khi cc yu t ny
thay i s lm
Nu t l LP d kin tng, ng Phillips s
01/12/2010
57
u
01/12/2010
58
b. Hai nguyn nhn lm lm pht thay i
Lm pht do cu ko
LP do cu ko (Demand Pull Inflation) xy ra
khi tng cu tng ln mnh m, c bit l khi SL
t hoc vt qu mc SL tim nng.
01/12/2010
59
Lm pht do cu ko
Cc c sc lm
tng tng cu
s khin cho
SL tng, tht
nghip
gim,
lm pht tng
v ngc li.
01/12/2010
60
LP do chi ph y
LP do chi ph y(Cost Push Inflation) xy
ra khi CPSX tng t ngt.
Cc c sc cung bt li
Ngc li, c sc cung thun li

01/12/2010
61
Lm pht do chi ph y
01/12/2010
62

Nh vy, khi LP xy ra do chi ph y th
01/12/2010
63
3. Chi ph ca chnh sch gim lm pht

Chi ph ca cc CS ct gim LP ph thuc mt
phn quan trng vo c ch hnh thnh k vng.
a. Trong iu kin k vng thch nghi
Trong iu kin k vng thch nghi, d on v
LP tng lai v do l v tr ng Phillips
ph thuc vo
ch khng lin quan n cc cam kt ct gim
lm pht ca chnh ph.
01/12/2010
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Tc l
Trng hp n gin nht l
Khi ng Phillips c dng:
01/12/2010
65

Phng trnh trn cho thy:
LP trong qu kh nh hng n k vng v LP

hin ti v k vng ny li nh hng n tin
lng, gi c m mi ngi thit lp.
LP c tnh , khi khng c cc c sc cung hay

tht nghip chu k, LP s c nh mc hin ti.
01/12/2010
66
u
01/12/2010
67

Nh vy, trong iu kin k vng thch nghi cc
nh hoch nh ch c th la chn cc tp hp
gia lm pht v tht nghip nm trn mt
ng Phillips xc nh.
01/12/2010
68
b. Trong iu kin k vng hp l

(Rational Expectation)
Trong iu kin k vng hp l, mi ngi thit lp
k vng da trn
bao gm nhng thng tin v nhng CS hin ti v
tng lai.
Ngoi ra, gi thit k vng hp l cn cho rng mi
ngi s dng thng tin sn c
01/12/2010
69

Nu cc nh hoch nh CS cam kt mt cch ng tin
cy rng h s ct gim LP th nhng ngi suy ngh
hp l s hiu c cam kt v nhanh chng h thp
k vng ca h v LP.
Khi , tn tht do vic ct gim LP gy ra
Tuy nhin, iu ny ch thc hin c khi
01/12/2010
70
u
01/12/2010
71

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KINH T V M II

CHNG IV: TNG CUNG V

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

1. Khi qut chung v tng cung

Trong di hn: khi gi c hon ton

Trong ngn hn: khi gi c mt s HH - DV

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

1. Khi qut chung v tng cung

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

1. Khi qut chung v tng cung

Ch ph thuc vo cung v cc nhn t SX nh

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

1. Khi qut chung v tng cung

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

1. Khi qut chung v tng cung

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

1. Khi qut chung v tng cung

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

2. Cc m hnh ng tng cung

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

a. M hnh tin lng cng nhc

Khi mc c tin lng, c DN v CN u c

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

a. M hnh tin lng cng nhc

Trong hp ng c k kt, cc iu khon

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

a. M hnh tin lng cng nhc

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

a. M hnh tin lng cng nhc

Sn lng c quyt nh bi hm sn xut:

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

a. M hnh tin lng cng nhc

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

a. M hnh tin lng cng nhc

L tr nn r hn. Do cc DN s thu nhiu

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

a. M hnh tin lng cng nhc

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

a. M hnh tin lng cng nhc

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

a. M hnh tin lng cng nhc

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

b. M hnh nhn thc sai lm ca cng

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

b. M hnh nhn thc sai lm ca CN

Cu L ph thuc tin lng thc t

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

b. M hnh nhn thc sai lm ca CN

V CN thy tin lng thc t

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

b. M hnh nhn thc sai lm ca CN

V CN thy tin lng thc t

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

b. M hnh nhn thc sai lm ca CN

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

b. M hnh nhn thc sai lm ca CN

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

c. M hnh thng tin khng hon ho

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

c. M hnh thng tin khng hon ho

Khng phn bit CN v DN. C CN v DN

DN bit c gi c hng ha m h SX nhng