...

&

1
1

1.1.1 :

( )
( ) .

:
1.
(. , .)
2.
(, , ...)
.

:
() :
,
(

).

( ),

,
,
, : , , ,
, () , ..



.(, , , ..)
() :
(,
, , ..)


( ),
, ,
.


(, ).

...

&

() :
( )
.
(-)

( ).

1.1.2 -
,
.
.

.

1.1.3

. ,
,
.
: , ,
, . ,

:
.

1.1.4
,
.


.
:
1. ,
2. ,

3. .
4.

5
(transactions motive):


, :
, , ,

...

&

, , ,
, .
(precautionary motive):


. , ,
.
(speculative motive):

,
.
, . ,


.


.

,
.

:

,

(compensating balances).

,
,
, .
:


,
. - .

,
,
.
.

...

&

1.1.5
:
. (OPERATING FLOWS):
,
.
:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5. ( )
:
1. (
, , , ,
..)
2.
3.
4.

. (VESTMENT FLOWS)
,

.
:
1.
2.
.
,
1.
2.
3.
. (FINANCING FLOWS)

, ,

.
:
:
1.
2.
:
.
2.
3.

...

&

, ,
. .

,
.

( )

...

&

, ,
.
, .
( )
.
(


.
:
,
,
1 .

...

&

1.1.6 11

.

.
, .
,
.

1.1.6.1

,
.



.



.
,
. ,
,


.
,

.

.

.

1.1.6.2

:
1.
2.
3.
,
4.
.
,

...

&

,
. ,
:
1
2.

3. .

.
,
(
) .

.
.
.
.
,
.
1.1.6.3 FL

.
Float.
Float

. (Float)
. :
> Float (mail time float).

> Float (processing float): ,

,

> Float (transit float):
.

1.1.6.4
,
,
.
.


.
,
.
. :

...

&

1)
:

.

. .
2) :



.
.

(
).

, .


.
3) :

. ,
,
,

.
.
4) :

, ,
.

,

.

. ,
,
.
,
, .

1.1.6.5

.
.
, ,
.

.


. :

...

&

1)
2)
, (
).
.
, :
.
, ,
, .

, .


, ,
.

1.1.6.6

.
1
, .

. (
) .
2 ,

. '
,
.

, .
.
.
,
,
. ' ,
, .

, '

,
,
.

10

...

&

1.2 2
1.2.1
,
,
, ,
,
. ..

.
.
,
.



. ,
,
.

1.2.2

.
.
.
.

.

,
.
- ,

,

.

( ,
). :

.

, .
, ,
.

, '

.

11

...

&

.
( Spreadsheet) xcel,
JA Lotus 1-2-3
.


, ' .

, , ,
. .

.

.


.

:
1.
,
.
2. :
...
.
.
.
.
.
.
3. .
.
.
..., ..., .....

, .
.
.
- .
- .
.
.
.
.., ,
, , ..
, , , .
, ,
.
4.
.
, ,
.
.
5. ,
.

12

...

&

.
6.
.
... ..., .....

.
7. (
)

. ,
.

1.2.3

,
.
.

.
,
. ,
,
, ,
. ,

:
;







,
.

1.2.4

,
.

1.2.4.1

.
.

13

...

&

1.2.4.2

, .
.
1.2.4.3

,
. .

1.2.5

.
.
.
:
= -

= +

(, , .).
,
(.. ,
,, ).

.
( ) ,
, . ,
.
,
.
,
.
,
.
,
,

.

.

14

 &

...

( )

:
>
>
>

>
>
>
>
>

>
>
>
>
>

'

2.1

.

.
, ,

,
.

15

...

2.2

&

. :




, ,



,
,

, ,
.
,
,
.
.

. ,

. , ,

. ,
,
, ,
.
,
. ,

.
,
. ,
,
, ,
, ,
, ,
.
(2.1),

,
.
.

16

...

&

2.1
, ,
. ,
,


.

2.3
,
:
,
( )
,
.
,
( )


.
, ( )


.
,
( )

.
3.1
:

17

...

&

3.1:


.
. ,
.

.

,

.
,
.
,
,
, .

2.4
2.4.1
,
,
. ,
,
. :
.
, .
,
.
,
.
.

18

...

&

.
.
,
,
.
, ,
.
:
1)
2)

3)
.


.
,
,
.
:

( , )

2.4.1.1
.
, ,
.
,
,

.
,
. ,
,
, , , , ,
, , .
(...)
, ,
, ,
, .
, ,
,
,
,

.
.

. ,
, .
. .
, ,
, .

19

...

&

.
, .
,
. .

(, ) ,
, .
.
,
( ), ,
, , ,
...

, ,
.
.

.
, . ,

.
,
,
.

2.4.1.2
.
, ,
. ,

.
,
.

, :
?
?
?
?
,

.
.


.
, ,

.
:

20

...

&

Dx = f (Px, Y, Ps, Pc, , , , , )

Dx, x, Px
x, Y , Ps , Pc
, ,
,
, .

, .
.

2.4.1.3 . .

.
) (Px)

, . ,
. ,
, 1.

D`
D
D``
0

1
,
. ,
(D).
; (D), .

21

...

&

.
,
(. 2):

() , , ,
. 15 .
10 ,
. ,
15 . 10 .
10 . 20 ,
15 .
10 . 20 ,
. , 10 . 40
. 5 .
, ,
, .
) ()
, ,
.
,
. ,
D D (.2.4.1). ,
,
. ,
,
D D (.2.).

22

 &

...

- D()

- D()
15

20

15
10
5
0

10
5
0

10

20

30

40

10

20

30

40

90

100 110

- D()

15
10
5
0
0

10

20

30

40

20

15
10
5
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

, , .
, ,
. (.. ),
, .


.
.

23

 &

...

, ,
:
-

,
.

, .

) (Ps) (Pc)
, ,
. :
-

, .. .
-

, .. .

, , ..
.
,

.
,
. , ,
.

. ,
, ,
.
, ,
.
, ,
.

.
,
.
) ()

.
, ,
,

24

...

&

.

,
.

. , ,
, ,
, , .
, ,
,
.
) ()

.

.
) ()

.
,
.
,

.
) ()

.

,
. , ,
,
, , , .
.
) ()
,
.

25

...

&

,
,
.
, ,
. ,
: ( ),
,
.

.
,
, .
, ,
:
.
, ,
, ,
,
.

2.5
,

.
, .

. ,

.
: , ()
?

.
,
.

: / .

26

...

&

2.5.1
2.5.1.1

,
:
. .
,
, ,
,
, .
, ,
S
.

( )
( ) , ,
, . ,
.
, ,
, .
. .

,
, ,
.
,
, ,
.

.
. .
( ,
, .)
,
, ,
, , .

,

27

 &

...

.. ,
,
, .
,
,
. ,

,
.
,
.

2.5.1.2
,

.
,

,

.

,
.
1. : ,
.
,
,
() .
2. :
: () ()
, .

.
.
3. :

28

 &

...

(, , , , .).
(

, .).
4. :
,
, .. , ,
, .
5. .

,
.
.
,

/
. :
,

.

. ..

.

.
(
) ,
.
, (
), , ,


.
1 ,
t (
).
() .

29

 &

...

t, F1.
n ( ),

. e1 = Y1 F1
,

.

Y1

Y2

Y3

...

Yn-1

Yn

...

n1 n

n + 1 n + 2 ...

n+m

...

Fn-1

Fn

Fn+1

Fn+m

e1

e2

e3

...

en-1

en

Fn+2

...

1 .

2.5.1.3
, ,
.
,
.
,
.

2.5.1.4

,
.
.
,
: () , () ( ), ()
() . :
)
.

(
),
( ) .
)

30

...

&

( ).
)
( ,
, ...). ,
.
)
( ) , ,
.
,
.


.

2.5.1.5

,
. ,
, . 2
,

, .

31

 &

...

(1)

= n Yi
1

(2)

1
MAD = n |Yi Y|

(3)

S =

(4)

S =S=

1
n-

(Yi Y)

1
n-

(Yi Y)

,
n Yi, i = 1, , n.

2.5.1.6 ,
,

. ()
,
.
1
(Xi X)(Yi Y)
n-

(5)

CovXY =

(6)

CovXY
rXY = S S =
X

(Xi X)(Yi Y)

(Xi X) (Yi Y)
2

,
n Xi Yi, I = 1, , n.

( k
) ,
k , k
.
n

(Yt Y)(Yt-k Y)
k (7)

rk =

t=k+1
n

(Yt Y)
t=1

4
k
, n i, I = 1, n.

32

 &

...

. e1
,
5.
(8)

et = Yt Ft

(9)

1
ME = n

(10)
(11)

et
t=1
n

1
MAE = n

|et|

1
n

et2

MSE

t=1
n

t=1

5
MSE,
,
,
.


.
( ). 6
.
( )
.
t - Ft
*100
t

(12)

PEt
=

(13)

MPEt = 1 PEt
n

t=1

(14)

MAPEt = 1 |PEt|
n
t=1

33

 &

...

,
:
U Theil,

Durbin Watson, ,

.
,
7 8 .

n-1

(FPEt+1

(15)

t=1

U =

n-1

(APEt+1)2
t=1

FPEt+1
=

Ft+1 - Yt
Yt

APEt+1 =

Ft+1 - Yt
Yt

7
U Theil.
U = 1,
:
. U,
.
n

(16)

(et et-1)2
DW =

t=2
n

et2
t=1

DW

Durbin Watson.

/ .
:
-

, .
.

34

...

&

.
-

.
.
.

. 1000
. 1980 2000.
, .

. ..

,
.
.

2.5.1.7
,

,
,
.
,
, ,
.

. (time series
decomposition), ,
, .

.
(smoothing methods).

.
,
(averaging methods) (exponential smoothing methods).

Ft+1, t
t+1,
1, 2, t, . :
(17)

t
Ft+1 = 1 Yi
t i=1

35

 &

...

t+1,
t+1, ,
:
(18)

Ft+2 =

1 t+1
Yi
t+1 i=1

(19)

Ft+2 =

tFt+1+Yt+1
t+1

,

.
k
,
,
.
k , k
. k,

.
:
(20) Ft+1 = MA(k) =

1 t
Yi =
k i=t-k+1

Yt+Yt-1+ +Yt-k+1
k

t+1,
Yt+1, ,
:
(21)

Ft+2 = Yt+1+Yt+Yt-1+ +Yt-k+2

k

:
(22)

Ft+2 = Ft+1+

1
(Yt+1-Yt-k+1)
k

, Ft+2 t+1,
Ft+1 1/k

36

 &

...

Yt-k+1 Yt+1.
k,
.
k
k
:
(23)

Ft+1 = w1 Yt + w2 Yt-1 + + wk Yt-k+1

w1,w2, ,wk k ,
. 1/k,
k (k).

, ..
.
,


( ).
( ), .
, :
(24)

Y t = + et

et
,
e.
, :
(25)

1 t
Yi
t i=1

.
, ,
, ,
.

37

 &

...

, k
.
:

Lt t.

, (k-1)/2 .
,

Lt, t.
(k-1)/2 .

.

(k-1)/2
.


m=1, 2, :
(26)

Ft+m = t + btm

(27)
(28)

t = Lt + (Lt 2Lt) = 2Lt 2Lt

bt =

2
(Lt 2Lt)
k-1

, ,
,
,
, .
,
.

2.5.1.8

,
, .

38

...

&

.


. , Ft+1,
t t+1, :
(29)

Ft+1 = Ft + (Yt Ft)

, , ,
0 1. ,
.
,
,
.

k . (29),
:
Ft+1 = t + (1-)Ft

(30)

Ft+1
t Ft
(1-). (30)
, :
(31)Ft+1 = t + (1-)t-1 + (1-)2Yt-2 + + (1-)t-1Y1 + (1-)tF1


, .

(29) (30).

.
-

39

 &

...

.
-

.
. ,
(29) (30)
. F1,

. F1
t,
(31),

.

( t)
. F1

( ) .

.
.

.

,
. ,
:
(32)

Ft+1 = tYt + (1-t)Ft

:
At

(33)

t+1 =

(34)

At = t + (1-)t-1

Mt

40

 &

...

(35)

Mt = || + (1-)t-1

(36)

Et = Yt - Ft

( (30)),
t (33),
,
0 1.

, ,
.
,
.
(33)
.


.


, ,
. , t
(t+1) :
L t,
t :
(37)

Lt = Yt + (1-)Lt-1

t.
, :
(38)

j(1-a)j =
0

1-

.
, (Lt)
(2Lt) ( (39)),

41

 &

...

t. (1-)/ .
(39)

2Lt

= Lt + (1-a)2Lt-1

,
.
(1)/ . ,

m =
1, 2, , :
(40)

Ft+m = t + btm

(41)

t = Lt + (Lt 2Lt) = 2Lt 2Lt

(42)

bt

1
(Lt 2Lt)
1-

,
Brown (Browns one parameter linear method),

.


, Holt (Holts two-parameter linear method)
,

.
. ,
, 0
1, :
(43)

Lt = t + (1-)(Lt-1 + bt-1)

(44)

bt = (Lt Lt-1) + (1-)bt-1

(45)

Ft+m = Lt + btm
Lt

42

 &

...

t, bt
( ) . (43) (44) ,
, .
(45) t m = 1, 2,
, Lt, m bt.


,
,
, .
(Browns one parameter quadratic method),
,
.
:
(46)

Lt = t + (1-)Lt-1

(47)

2Lt = Lt

(48)

3Lt

+ (1-a)2Lt-1

= 2Lt + (1-a)3Lt-1

, m = 1, 2, ,
:
(49)

Ft+m = t + btm + (1/2)ctm2

:
(50)

(51)

t = 3Lt 32Lt + 3Lt

bt =

2
[(6-5)Lt (10 8)2Lt + (4 3)3Lt]
2(1-)2

2
(Lt 22Lt + 3Lt)
ct =
(1-)2

(52)

.

:
(53)

Lt =

(54)

St =

Yt
St-s
Yt
Lt

+ (1-)Lt-1
+ (1-)St-s

43

 &

...

Lt St
s , .. 12 .
(54), ,
t Lt,
( (53)) .
.

, . ,
m = 1, 2, , :
(55)

Ft+m = LtSt-s+m

, s .

s, s
, Ls = (Y1 + Y2 + + Ys)/s.
S1 = Y1/Ls, S2 = Y2/Ls, ., Ss = Ys/Ls.


,
(Holt Winters trend and seasonality
method).
:
Yt

(56)

Lt =

(57)

bt = (Lt Lt-1) + (1 )bt-1

(58)

St =

St-s

Yt
Lt

+ (1-)(Lt-1+ bt-1)

+ (1-)St-s

, Lt,
bt St s . ,
m = 1, 2, , :
(59)

Ft+m = (Lt + btm)St-s+m

, ,

44

 &

...

,
s .
s,
s , Ls = (Y1 + Y2 + + Ys)/s.
2
, 2s , :
(60)

1
s

bs =

Ys+1-Y1
s

Ys+2-Y2
s

+ +

Ys+s-Ys
s

S1 = Y1/Ls, S2 = Y2/Ls, ., Ss = Ys/Ls.


, Pegel (Pegels classification
scheme). .
/ .
/ .

(additive)

(multiplicative).

(). ,
(). ,


, , .
Pegel,
9, .

Pegel.

9, :

45

 &

...

(61)

Lt = Pt + (1 )Qt

(62)

bt = Rt + (1 )bt-1

(63)

St = t + (1 )St-s

Pt, Qt, Rt, Tt

10.
, m = 1, 2,
.

Pt = Yt

Pt = Yt St-s

Pt = Yt / St-s

Qt = Lt-1

Qt = Lt-1

Qt = Lt-1

Tt = Yt - Lt

Tt = Yt / Lt

Ft+m = Lt

Ft+m = Lt + St+m-s

Ft+m = LtSt+m-s

Pt = Yt

Pt = Yt St-s

Pt = Yt / St-s

Qt = Lt-1+ bt-1

Qt = Lt-1+ bt-1

Qt = Lt-1+ bt-1

Rt = Lt Lt-1

Rt = Lt Lt-1

Rt = Lt Lt-1

Tt = Yt - Lt

Tt = Yt / Lt

Ft+m = Lt + mbt + St+m-

Ft+m = (Lt + mbt)St+m-s

Ft+m = Lt + mbt

Pt = Yt

Pt = Yt St-s

Pt = Yt / St-s

Qt = Lt-1bt-1

Qt = Lt-1bt-1

Qt = Lt-1bt-1

Rt = Lt / Lt-1

Rt = Lt / Lt-1

Rt = Lt / Lt-1

Tt = Yt - Lt

Tt = Yt / Lt

Ft+m = Lt btm + St+m-s

Ft+m = Lt btm + St+m-s

Ft+m = Lt btm
10
.

1 9
10 , ,
. 1
(Holts two
parameter linear method),
(Browns one parameter linear method).
,
, . ,
3 ,
() .

46

 &

...

, (61), (62), (63)

10 :
(64)

Lt =

(65)

bt =

Yt
St-s
Lt
Lt-1

+ (1-)Lt-1bt-1
+ (1-)bt-1

Yt
St =
+ (1-)St-s
Lt
,
m = 1, 2, ,
(66)

:
Ft+m = LtbtmSt-s+m

(67)

2.5.2 /
. ,
,
.
.
3 .
:

2.5.2.1 :
.

.
, , , ,
.
.

.
.

.

47

...

&

.
:

2.5.2.2
.
1940 Rand Corporation.
.
:
.
, .


.
, .
.
.

.

2.5.2.3

,
.
:


,
.
,
.. .

48

...

&

2.5.2.4
.

. ,
. ,

.

2.5.2.5


.
.
,
:
a)
b)
c)

49

...

&

50

...

&

51

...

&

,
. ,
,
. ,
, 83% .


,

.
, ,
,
.

.
,
.
, ,


.

,
.

.

,

.

52

...

&

, ., , ,
, (1996)

, .. , ..,
, , (1997)

, ., , . , .,
, , (2002)

, ., , Art of text,
(1993)

, . , ., Management ,
, (1991)

, .,
, , (1995)

, ., , , (1999)

llen, P., ,
(1999)

angs, D., Cash Flow Control Guide, Anubis, (1990)

HIsrich, R., and Jackson, R., ,

Singular, (1995)

Jarrett, G., , -
, Gutenberg, (2002)

Stanton, W. And Buskirk, R., ,

, (1992)

Weston, F., and Brigham, E.,

, , (1986)

, ,

53

...

&

1 .......................................................................................................................... 1
1 ............................................................................................................................ 1
1.1.1
:............................................................................................................ 1
1.1.2
- ................................................................ 2
1.1.3
...................... 2
1.1.4
................................................................ 2
1.1.5
.............................................................................................. 4
1.1.6
11 ...................................................................... 7
1.1.6.1
- .................. 7
1.1.6.2
.................................................................................... 7
FL ........................................................................................................ 8
1.1.6.3
1.1.6.4
............................................................................. 8
1.1.6.5
................................................................. 9
1.1.6.6
................................................................... 10
2 ...................................................................................................... 11
1.2
1.2.1
.......................................................... 11
1.2.2
...................................................................... 11
1.2.3
..................................................................... 13
1.2.4
.................................................. 13
1.2.4.1
....................................................... 13
1.2.4.2
....................................................... 14
1.2.4.3
............................................... 14
............................................................... 14
1.2.5
......................................................................................................................... 14
2 ........................................................................................................................ 15
2.1
.............................................................................................................. 15
2.2
.................................................. 16
2.3
............................................................................ 17
2.4
..................................................................................................... 18
2.4.1
.................................................................... 18
2.4.1.1
.......................................................................................... 19
2.4.1.2
................................................................................... 20
2.4.1.3
. . .................. 21
................................................................. 26
2.5
2.5.1
.......................................................................... 27
2.5.1.1
....................................................................................................... 27
2.5.1.2
........................... 28
2.5.1.3
............................................ 30
2.5.1.4
........................ 30
2.5.1.5
....................................... 31
2.5.1.6
, ........... 32
......................................... 33
2.5.1.7
.................................................................. 35
2.5.1.8
........................................................... 38
/ .................................................................. 47
2.5.2
2.5.2.1
: ......................................................................... 47
2.5.2.2
............................................................................. 48
2.5.2.3
....................................................................... 48
2.5.2.4
.............................................................................. 49
2.5.2.5
................................................................................ 49

54