HI NGH NHM CHUYN GIA LIN HP QUC V PHN B DN C,

TH HA, DCH C V PHT TRIN

Phng dn s
Ban Kinh t v Phc li x hi
Th k Lin Hp quc
New York, 21-23 /1/ 2008

CLIMATE CHANGE AND URBANIZATION: EFFECTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR

URBAN GOVERNANCE
David Satterthwaite

BIN I KH HU V TH HA: TC NG V NGHA

I VI QUN TR TH
David Satterthwaite

Bi vit ny da trn chng trnh hp tc v Kh nng v ro cn trong cng tc

thch ng vi bin i kh hu ti cc th nhng quc gia c thu nhp thp v trung bnh
c lin quan n nhiu c nhn v t chc. C th, bi bo c s ng gp v hp tc ca cc
tc gi nh Saleemul Huq and HaReid (nhm BKH ca IIED), Mark Pelling (Kings
College, i hc London), Aromar Revi (TARU) and Patricia Lankao Romero (Trung tm
nghin cu kh quyn quc gia, M). Ni dung ca bi bo cng da trn mt s nghin cu
ca Debra Roberts (trng hp nghin cu Chin lc thch nghi ca Durban), Jorgelina
Hardoy v Gustavo Pandiella (Argentina), Cynthia B. Awuor, Victor A. Orindi v Andrew
Adwerah (Mombasa), Mozaharul Alam (Bangladesh/Dhaka), Sheridan Bartlett (nghin cu
v tc ng ca BKH n tr em) v Sari Kovats.
Bn cnh , bi vit cn c vit da trn ni dung ch yu ca 2 nghin cu trc
: Lng ghp thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong cng tc ra quyt nh cp th/a
phng ti cc quc gia c thu nhp thp v trung bnh (d tho 1) (Satterthwaite, David
2007), c chun b cho y ban h tr pht trin OECD; v Thch ng vi bin i kh hu
ti khu vc th; Kh nng v ro cn ti cc quc gia c thu nhp thp v trung bnh
(Paris v Satterthwaite, David, Saleemul Huq, Mark Pelling, Hannah Reid v Patricia Lankao
Romero 2007), bo co xut bn bi IIED.

A. GII THIU
Ti tt c cc quc gia, chnh quyn th c vai tr quan trng trong cng tc thch
ng cng nh gim thiu bin i kh hu (ct gim pht thi kh nh knh). Chnh quyn
th c mt vai tr trung tm trong cng tc thch ng trong phm vi qun l ca h mc d
r rng rng h cn s h tr v th ch, php l v ti chnh t cc cp cao hn ca chnh
ph v i vi hu ht cc quc gia c thu nhp thp trung bnh h cng cn s h tr t
cc t chc quc t. Bi bo tp trung ch yu vo nhng nh hng ca BKH ti cc th
ti cc quc gia c thu nhp thp trung bnh v kin ngh cho cng tc qun tr th. Bi
bo s nhn mnh n phng thc cng tc thch ng c th c lng ghp ti a trong
chng trnh pht trin ca a phng.
Tuy nhin, khng ging nh hu ht cc tai bin mi trng, chnh quyn a phng
ti nhng nc thu nhp thp trung bnh khng c kh nng gim thiu nhng tai bin
lin quan n bin i kh hu nhng tai bin m h s phi i mt trong qu trnh qun l
th. i vi nhiu ri ro mi trng, chnh quyn a phng c th gim thiu c v
d nh x l nc trc khi phn phi, gim thiu kh nng sinh sn ca cc sinh vt truyn
nhim, gim thiu nhng tai bin vt l thng qua vic xy dng cng trnh v c s h tng
cht lng tt, qun l giao thng v gim tip xc vi ha cht c hi thng qua vic kim
sot nhim, sc khe ngh nghip v an ton lao ng. Trong khi , vic gim thiu tai
bin ca bin i kh hu ti cc nc c thu nhp thp trung bnh li ph thuc ch yu vo
s thay i phong cch sng, xu hng tiu dng ca cc nhm c thu nhp trung bnh v cao
m phn ln li sng cc nc c thu nhp cao. C mt nhu cu bc thit i vi cng tc
thch ng cc th ti cc quc gia c thu nhp thp trung bnh do phn ln dn s th
ca th gii li ang sinh sng nhng quc gia ny, nhng quc gia m nng lc thch ng
rt hn ch. Tng trng dn s th gii c d bo s din ra ch yu ti cc th ca cc
quc gia c thu nhp thp trung bnh trong hai thp k ti (Lin hp quc, 2006).
Cc quc gia thu nhp thp trung bnh chim n dn s th th gii. Dn s
th ti cc quc gia ny cng phi chu ri ro ln nht i vi cc tc ng ca bin i kh
hu nh bo thng xuyn, l lt, l t v sng nhit. S ngi t vong do cc hin tng
thi tit cc oan ti cc quc gia c thu nhp thp trung bnh cng chim t l ln trn tng
s ngi t vong trn ton th gii; nu c s liu chnh xc hn, th c th thy rng mt t
l ln v ngy cng tng ca s ngi t vong l ti khu vc th thuc cc quc gia ny
(UN Habitat, 2007). Hu ht cc quc gia phi i mt vi hng lot nhng kh khn do
BKH lin quan n vn nc sch cng l nhng quc gia c thu nhp thp trung
bnh. i vi tc ng do mc nc bin dng, ring Trung Quc v n chim hn
dn s th trn ton th gii nm trong phm vi i b c cao thp. Chu Phi, xa nay
c xem l lc a nng thn, hin c dn s th ln hn so vi khu vc Bc M v gn
2/5 dn s sng th (Lin hp quc, 2006). Chu Phi cng c mt tp trung cc thnh
ph ln ven bin kh cao. Khng c s thch ng, BKH c th gy ra ngy cng nhiu s
ngi cht do tai nn v thng tch, v nhng nguy him ngy cng nghim trng n sinh
k ca ngi dn, n ti sn, cht lng mi trng v s thnh vng trong tng lai.
Kh nng thch ng ca chnh quyn th r rng cng c tm quan trng mang tnh
quc gia do vai tr trung tm ca th v mt kinh t cng nh chnh tr - bao gm c vai tr
l th trng v trung tm dch v cho nng nghip v pht trin nng thn. Thm ch phn
ln nhng quc gia nng thn nhn chung c hn mt na GDP c ng gp bi cng
nghip v dch v xut pht t khu vc th.

S cn thit phi hnh ng thch ng vi BKH ca chnh quyn th l rt cp

bch thm ch c th l cp bch hn so vi nh gi th 4 ca IPCC. L do l xut hin
nhng phn tch mi v tnh d b tn thng ca dn s th do ri ro tng ln hoc nhng
ri ro mi m BKH c th gy ra ti hu ht cc nc c thu nhp thp trung bnh. Nhng
s liu phn tch bt u lm sng t mc d b tn thng v d nghin cu v s lng
v t l dn s th ca cc quc gia nm trong khu vc i b c cao thp
(McGranahan, Balk v Anderson, 2007), v trong mt lot cc nghin cu chi tit cho cc a
phng, thnh ph v vng (de Sherbinin, Schiller v Pulsipher, 2007; Dossou v
Glehouenou-Dossou, 2007; Alam v Golam Rabbani, 2007; Revi 2008; Awuor, Orindi v
Adwerah 2008; v Levina, Jacob v Ortiz, 2007).
B. NHNG TC NG CA BKH I VI KHU VC TH
I.

Gii thiu

Bng 1, da trn nh gi th 4 ca IPCC, lit k nhng kha cnh khc nhau ca BKH,
bng chng cho nhng tc ng hin ti, d bo cc tc ng trong tng lai v cc khu vc
hoc nhm chu nh hng nhiu nht. Bo co nhn mnh nhng loi tc ng khc nhau
pht sinh t s thay i mang tnh cc oan v bt ng ca BKH, trong khi cng cn ch
rng mc tc ng him khi c xc nh mt cch r rng.
Trong s cc trung tm th cc quc gia c thu nhp thp trung bnh, c l
nhng ri ro r nht nm s lng v cng ca cc hin tng thi tit cc oan v d
nh cc cm ma bo ln, lc xoy. Tt nhin, c s khc bit ln trong thang o ca nhng
ri ro nh vy gia cc trung tm th mi quc gia. Nhng trung tm th c nguy c
cao nht thng l nhng ni m cc hin tng thi tit xy ra thng xuyn v l
nguyn nhn gy nn hng lot nhng nguy him - mc d c mt s bng chng cho thy
phm vi a l ca nhng hin tng thi tit cc oan ang c xu hng lan rng. Nhng
thnh ph ven bin ni ang chu nh hng ca bo s chu nh hng gp i khi mc
nc bin dng ln km theo l lt v xi l ven b.
i vi bt k mt thnh ph no, mc ri ro do nhng hin tng thi tit cc
oan chu nh hng nhiu bi cht lng ca cng trnh v c s h tng ca thnh ph .
Mc ri ro cng c phn nh bi mc thnh cng trong quy hoch v qun l s
dng t theo hng gim thiu tc ng ca BKH trong bi cnh xy dng v m rng
th. ng thi, mc sn sng ng ph ca ngi dn cng nh cht lng dch v phn
ng vi tnh trng khn cp cng l nhng yu t quan trng. i vi cc im dn c ven
bin, tnh ton vn ca h sinh thi ven b c bit l rng ngp mn c bo v v h thng
m ly nc mn cng nh hng n mc ri ro.
Nhng ri ro lin quan n thng tch v t vong i vi c dn th cc quc
gia thu nhp cao c xu hng gim dn trong nhng thp k gn y do c s u t thch
ng vo nh v c s h tng trong khi thit hi kinh t v ti chnh c gim thiu bi
dch v bo him. Tuy nhin, s tn ph New Orleans do cn bo Katrina vo nm 2005 l
mt v d v trng hp ngoi l - s thiu u t trong phng l kt hp vi s xung cp
ca mi trng ven bin, v cht lng hn ch ca cc dch v khn cp. cng l mt v
d ca quyt nh chnh tr u tin pht trin thay v gim thiu ri ro. New Orleans c k
th
hoch m rng ti phng Lower 9 (khu vc thp ca thnh ph b ph hy bi cn bo
Katrina); vo nm 1999, y ban quy hoch New Orleans tuyn b rng vic pht trin khu
vc ny em li nhiu vic lm cho c dn thnh ph (Burby 2006).

Cn bo Katrina cng lm sng t tnh d b tn thng cao hn ca nhm c thu

nhp thp v vn ny thm ch cn r hn cc th thuc quc gia c thu nhp thp
trung bnh. Thm vo , cc thnh ph cng d b tn thng khi xy ra thit hi cho cc h
thng ln hn m chng ph thuc v d nh h thng cp v x l nc, giao thng, cp
in v tt c nhng g ph thuc vo in, bao gm chiu sng, bm v vin thng
(Wilbanks et al., 2007).
2. L lt
Cc khu vc th lun hin din mt s ri ro l lt khi ma ln xy ra. Nh ca,
ng ph, c s h tng v nhng khu vc b tng ha khc ngn chn nc ma thm
xung mt t v do vy to ra nc chy trn nhiu hn. Ma ln v ko di lu ngy to
ra mt lng rt ln nc chy trn b mt, v c th d dng lm ngp h thng thot nc.
cc thnh ph c qun l tt, vn ny him khi xy ra v c s h tng thot nc
c xy dng tt vi cc phng php b sung bo v chng li l lt v d vic s
dng cc cng vin v khng gian m thch ng vi l lt bt thng. hu ht cc thnh
ph, cng tc qun l s dng t cng c iu chnh tng kh nng ng ph vi l lt.
Ngc li, cc thnh ph qun l khng tt, vic khng xy ra. Hu ht cc khu dn c
khng lp t h thng thot nc v da vo nhng knh thot nc t nhin v thng
xuyn xy ra vic cc cng trnh hoc c s h tng c xy dng nhng v tr lm nghn
cc knh thot nc . V d, Dhaka, cc cng trnh xy dng thng xm ln hoc san
lp cc knh thot t nhin xy dng ng giao thng (Alam v Golam Rabbani 2007).
Mombasa cng i mt vi vn tng t (Awuor, Orindi v Adwerah 2008). hu ht cc
trung tm th ca Chu Phi, Chu v Chu M La Tinh, mt b phn ln c dn th
khng c cung cp h thng thu gom cht thi rn. Ti cc thnh ph khng c dch v
qun l CTR hoc h thng thot nc khng c bo dng, rc v s pht trin ca thc
vt c th cn tr thot nc dn n ng lt cc b thm ch c khi ma nh. Ngoi ra cng
nhiu ti liu cho thy s yu km ca h thng thot nc v phng chng l lt ca cc
th Chu Phi, Chu c lin quan n xu hng tng s ngi t vong v b thng do l
lt. C nhiu nghin cu trng hp nhn mnh tnh d b tn thng ca mt s thnh ph
i vi l lt v mc nc bin dng, bao gm Alexandria (El Raey, 1997), Cotonou
(Dossou v Glehouenou-Dossou 2007), Dhaka (Alam v Golam Rabbani, 2007), Banjul
(Jallow et al 1999) v Port Harcourt (Abam et al., 2000).
Mt nghin cu gn y ch ra vic s thiu ht h thng gim thiu ri ro l lt hoc
h thng qun l l lt khi chng xy ra ti su thnh ph Chu Phi (Douglas et al., 2008).
L lt v ang tc ng ln n cc thnh ph v cc th nh nhiu quc gia Chu Phi
v d trn lt Mozambique vo nm 2000 bao gm l ln Maputo v Algiers vo nm
2001 (900 ngi cht v 45.000 ngi b nh hng); ma ln ng Phi vo nm 2002
gy ra l lt v l t khin cho 10.000 ngi phi ri b nh ca Rwanda, Kenya, Burundi,
Tanzania v Uganda, v mt lot chng trn lt Port Harcourt v Addis Ababa nm 2006
(UN-Habitat 2007, Douglas et al., 2008). Trao i vi ngi dn sng ti cc khu vc khng
chnh thc cc thnh ph khc nhau cho thy l lt ngy cng xy ra thng xuyn v khc
nghit hn, ng thi thng xy ra nhng ni m trc kia cha tng b nguy him. H
cng cho bit chnh quyn c rt t hnh ng gii quyt vn ny (Douglas et al., 2008).
Bin i kh hu c kh nng lm tng ri ro l lt cc th theo 3 cch: t bin
(mc nc bin dng cao v bo); t ma v d lng ma tng hoc ma ko di; v t
nhng thay i gy ra tng lu lng dng chy v d do bng tan. Nhm cng tc s 2 ca
IPCC nhn mnh rng nhng trn ma ln c xu hng ngy xy ra thng xuyn hn v s

lm tng thm nguy c l lt, ng thi c bng chng v vic tng lu lng dng chy sm
hn ca nhng dng sng ly nc t bng, tuyt (Adger, Aggarwal, Agrawala et al., 2007).
Bn cnh nhng nguy him ca l lt, hin tng ma ln do BKH cng s lm tng nguy
c l t nhiu th.
IPCC cng nhn mnh nhng tc ng ln ti cp nc do cc hin tng thi tit
cc oan nh l kt qu ca BKH. Cc cng trnh khai thc v x l nc thng c xy
dng bn cnh cc dng sng v y l h thng c s h tng u tin chu tc ng ca l
lt. H thng in v my bm r rng s b tc ng. L lt ven sng vi vn tc dng chy
cao cng lm nh hng n h thng ng ng (Wilbanks, Romero Lankao et al., 2007).
V sinh mi trng cng l mt vn . L lt cng thng gy nguy him i vi nh x
(hu ht ngi dn th Chu Phi v Chu u s dng h x) v nc l cng thng
em theo cc cht nhim khi chy qua cc h x hoc cc b t hoi v cng rnh. Toilet
c ni thng vi cng rnh tr nn v dng nu thiu h thng cp nc. Tuy nhin, nhiu
th vng Sahara Chu Phi v Chu khng c h thng cng hoc nu c, mng li
cng rt thp nu tnh theo t l trn s dn (Hardoy, Mitlin and Satterthwaite, 2001). Nh
IPCC nhn mnh, vn v sinh mi trng chnh y l h thng c s h tng vi vai
tr quyt nh mc nhim ca nc l/lt em theo phn, mt mi nguy hi ng k do
cc dch bnh km theo (Ahern et al., 2005).
3. Bo, nc bin dng v dn c th duyn hi
Tht kh c tnh mt cch chnh xc c bao nhiu ngi chu nh hng bi vic
tng cc hin tng thi tit cc oan v mc nc bin dng do BKH. Nhng phn tch chi
tit u tin v s lng v t l dn c th (v tng dn s) sng nhng khu vc thp
ven bin c cng b gn y (McGranahan, Balk and Anderson, 2007). Khu vc ny
khu vc lin tc dc b bin c cao nh hn 10m trn mt nc bin ch chim 2% din
tch th gii nhng bao gm 10% dn s (trn 600 triu ngi) v 13% dn s th (khong
360 triu ngi). Gn 2/3 s thnh ph c hn 5 triu dn nm trong khu vc ny hoc mt
phn nm trong khu vc ny. Nhng nc c thu nhp thp trung bnh c t l dn c th
sng ven bin cao hn so vi nhng nc c thu nhp cao. Nhng quc gia km pht trin
nht, tnh trung bnh, c t l dn s th sng ven bin cao gp 2 ln so vi nhng quc gia
pht trin. Hnh 1 cho thy 10 quc gia c dn s th ln nht v t l dn s th sng
ven bin.
Hin nhin, ch mt phn trong s dn c sng ven bin chu nh hng ca nc bin
dng trong vng 30 50 nm ti. c tnh mc nc bin dng trong khong 18 59cm vo
cui th k 21; iu ny chc chn s lm tng s ngi b ngp lt do nhng cn bo. Mt
nghin cu c tnh rng hng nm c 10 triu ngi chu nh hng bi l lt ven b v s
ngi chu nh hng s tng ln theo tt c cc kch bn ca BKH (Nicholls, 2004). Vn
l lt ven bin s cn nguy him hn nu nhng hin tng thi tit cc oan vi xc xut
bt nh s xy ra v d vic bng tan ngy cng nhanh ti o Greenland hoc s sp
cc tng bng Ty Nam Cc (Adger, Aggarwal, Agrawala et al., 2007).
Bo co cui cng ca Nhm cng tc s 2 ca IPCC nhn mnh tnh d b tn thng
do mc nc bin dng v s thay i lng nc mt chy trn ca mt b phn ln dn c
th v nng thn cc ng bng Chu ng dn c nh Ganges-Brahmaputra (bao gm
c Dhaka), Mekong, Chang Jiang (cng c bit l Yangtze, bao gm Thng Hi) v Chao
Phraya (vi Bangkok). Nhiu khu vc chu th khc Chu v Chu Phi cng c mt t l
ln ngi dn th v nng thn chu nh hng, c bit l sng Nile nhng cng bao gm

c Niger (vi Port Harcourt) v Senegal (vi Saint Louis Diagne, 2007) v, tt nhin, c
chu th Mississippi ca nc M (vi New Orleans) (Nicholls et al., 2007).
Cc s liu thng k cng cho thy s tng dn s khu vc ven bin c cao thp
ti hu ht cc quc gia (McGranahan, Balk v Anderson, 2007). Trung Quc l v d n
tng nht v quc gia c s lng dn c th v nng thn ln nht sinh sng trong khu
vc ny v vn c xu hng tng mnh m. Gia tng thng mi vi s h tr bi cc chnh
sch ca chnh ph tip tc thu ht ngi dn ti khu vc ny. Cc tnh ven bin ca Trung
Quc c s ngi nhp c tng khong 17 triu trong giai on 1995-2000, to p lc ln vi
mt khu vc duyn hi vn ng c (ibid).
C mt s bng chng cho thy nhng cn bo s tr nn thng xuyn vi cng
cao hn, ng thi cng c kh nng vnh ai bo s di chuyn xung pha Nam. Bi vy,
nhng khu vc th ven bin chu nh hng ln nht bao gm Vit Nam Chu , Gujarat
Ty n v Orissa ng n, vng Caribbean, bao gm c cc th ln nh Santo
Domingo, Kingston, v Havana, v dn c trn b bin Caribe ca Mexico v Trung M o
nh chng ta thy t cn bo Mitch. Vi nhit nc bin b mt tng ln 2 - 4 C, nh
xy ra n Dng trong th k qua, cng bo s tng ln 10 -20% (Aggarwal v
Lal, 2001). K t khi tn sut hnh thnh bo trong vnh Bengal cao gp khong nm ln so
vi bin Rp (India Metrological Department, 1966, 1979, TARU 2005). B bin pha
ng ca n r rng chu ri ro ln hn. Mt tp trung dn s cao, c bit b bin
pha ng ca n v Bng La t, khin cho mc tn thng ca khu vc ny cc cao
ng thi dn n mt mt ln v ti sn v sinh mng (Revi, 2008).
4. Nhng hn ch v cp nc v cc ngun ti nguyn thin nhin khc.
Nhm cng tc s 2 ca IPCC nhn mnh rng, Chu Phi, n nm 2020, c
khong 75 250 triu ngi c d bo s i mt vi nhng tc ng do cng thng v
ngun cp nc do tc ng ca BKH (Adger, Aggarwal, Agrawala et al., 2007). chu
, "ngun ti nguyn nc ngt sn c Trung, Nam, ng v ng Nam , c bit l
cc lu vc sng ln, d kin gim do BKH, do tng trng dn s v nhu cu ngy cng
tng pht sinh t tiu chun sng cao hn, nhng bt li c th nh hng n hn mt t
ngi vo nhng nm 2050 (ibid). Bt k s gim ngun ti nguyn nc ngt c sn do
BKH cng s l vn i vi nhng ngi sng khu vc vn khan him nc hoc
cng thng v nc trong nhng nhm ngho c kh nng chu nh hng ln nht
(Romero Lankao, 2006). Trong th k trc, lng ma c 4 ma trong nm c xu hng
gim tt c cc khu vc kh hn v bn kh hn chnh ca th gii: pha Bc Chile, vng
ng Bc Brazil v Bc Mexico, Ty Phi v Ethiopia, cc khu vc kh hn ca min Nam
Chu Phi,v min Ty Trung Quc (Folland et al., 2001). Nu nhng xu hng ny cn tip
tc, cp nc s tr nn vn nghim trng nhng khu vc m nc l vn (Rhode,
1999).
Rt nhiu thnh ph v lu vc ca n s nhn c t ma hn (v ngun nc ngt
cng s hn ch hn) y l vn ln cho cc thnh ph ang pht trin v cc thnh ph
ln, ni v ang phi i mt vi vn cp nc (Anton, 1993; UN Habitat, 2006). C t
nht 14 quc gia Chu Phi ang i mt vi cc vn cng thng v nc hoc khan him
nc v nhiu quc gia khc cng c kh nng gia nhp danh sch ny trong vng 10 20
nm ti (Muller 2007). c nhiu sai lm trong qun l ti nguyn nc nhng khu vc
ny khng lin quan ti BKH - ni c khong mt na dn s th khng c cung

cp y nc sch v v sinh mi trng, mc d iu ny c lin quan n qun tr khng

hn l lin quan n vic thiu nc (UN - Habitat, 2003).
5. Nhit tng v sng nhit
Hu ht cc thnh ph Chu Phi, Chu , Chu M La Tinh v khu vc Caribbean
s chu nh hng nhiu sng nhit. Thm ch, ngay c gia tng nh trong nhit trung bnh
c th dn n s thay i ln ca tn sut xut hin cc hin tng cc oan (Kovats v
Aktar 2008). Vi cc thnh ph ln v mt cao, nhit ti cc o nhit c th cao hn
vi so vi cc khu vc ln cn; i vi cc thnh ph nhit i, s khc bit nhit c
th ti 10 vo ban m (ibid). Rt nhiu thnh ph s phi i mt vi mt s vn nht
nh nh nhim khng kh khi nng cht nhim thay i p ng vi BKH v s
thay i nng cc thnh phn ca nhim ph thuc, mt phn, vo nhit v m.
iu ny c bit quan trng i vi chu v M Latinh, ni c hu ht cc thnh ph c
mc nhim khng kh ln nht. C t thng tin v tc ng ca ng sut nhit chu Phi
hay chu M La tinh nhng vi cc nghin cu thc hin Bc M, chu v chu u cho
thy rng sng nhit c lin quan vi s gia tng r rt t l t vong (Confalonieri et al.,
2007). t nng chu u nm 2003 cp i 20.000 mng sng, ch yu l ngi ngho
v ngi cao tui. Andhra Pradesh, n , mt t nng git cht hn 1.000 ngi ch yu l lao ng lm vic ngoi tri di nhit cao nhng th nh (Revi, 2008).
i vi o nhit th, nhit khu vc th cao hn khu vc nng thn xung
quanh do chu k ngy m ca s hp th v ti bc x sau ca nng lng mt tri v
(vi mt mc thp hn rt nhiu) s sinh nhit t cc ta nh, kt ct b tng. Vic tng
tn sut v mc nghim trng ca hin tng sng nhit cc thnh ph c th nh hng
n sc khe, nng sut lao ng, v hot ng gii tr ca ngi dn th. N cng nh
hng n kinh t, nh chi ph b xung cho vic iu ha kh hu trong cc to nh, v nh
hng n mi trng, nh s hnh thnh ca khi cc thnh ph hay s xung cp ca
khng gian xanh ng thi kh nh knh tng ln nu nhu cu lm mt tng nu h thng
lm mt dng in to ra t nhin liu ha thch.
C mt s bng chng rng nhng tc ng tng hp ca sng nhit (v d hiu ng
o nhit th) v nhim khng kh c th ln hn tng tc ng ca hai hin tng ny
(Patz v Balbus, 2003). Tnh d b tn thng l khc nhau i vi nhng tc ng sc khe
lin quan n kh hu v nhim khng kh trong th. Nhng yu t a phng nh kh
hu, a hnh, cng o nhit, thu nhp, kh nng tip cn cc dch v y t v t l ngi
cao tui, l nhng yu t quan trng trong vic xc nh mi quan h nhit - t vong ca
dn s. (Curriero et al., 2002).
6. Nhng ri ro sc khe khc lin quan n BKH
Bin i kh hu cng c th lm gia tng bnh tiu chy v thay i s phn b
khng gian ca mt s vect bnh truyn nhim - v d nhit trung bnh m hn c th m
rng din tch nhim bnh m trong nhiu bnh "nhit i" c th xy ra. Vic m rng c
th xy ra i vi nhng khu vc m trong mui truyn bnh st rt, st xut huyt v giun
c th tn ti v sinh sn (Adger, Aggarwal, Agrawala et al., 2007; WHO, 1992). c bit lu
n s ly lan nhanh chng ca bnh st xut huyt nhiu quc gia trong nhng nm gn
y, v loi mui Aedes thch ng vi cc iu kin sng ca th. Ti n , d on
bnh st rt s m rng phm vi lan truyn khp c nc, t phm vi hin ang nhim bnh
pha ng v ng bc n ti min Ty v min Nam n (Bhattacharya et al, 2006.).

Vi thc t l cc thnh ph n tr thnh ni cha cc bnh truyn qua sinh vt nh

st rt v st xut huyt, d kin nguy c mc bnh s ngy cng tng ln. Tuy nhin, tt c
cc him nguy bnh tt trn xut hin phn ln khu vc dn s th m khng c
bin i kh hu.
Nhng hin tng thi tit cc oan c th to ra mi nguy him mi ti sc khe con
ngi v gy gin on cho cc dch v y t cng cng dn n t l mc bnh tng ln. Cn
bo Mitch Trung M vo nm 1998 dn n gia tng cc bnh st rt, st xut huyt, dch t
v bnh trng xon (Vergara, 2005). Dn c vi c s h tng v sinh km v gnh nng ca
cc bnh truyn nhim cao thng c t l tng cc bnh tiu chy, dch t v bnh thng
hn sau cc trn l. Vic ly nhim cc bnh ng rut thng cao hn trong ma ma
(Nchito et al 1998; Kang et al., 2001).
Cc ri ro sc khe khc cng cn ch c lin quan n vic thiu s chun b
phng khi c thin tai ( hn ch tc ng khi cc hin tng thi tit cc oan xy ra) v
nhng bt cp hoc qun l ng ph km sau thm ha.
C. I TNG NO CHU RI RO LN NHT?
Ri ro kt hp vi tnh d b tn thng trong iu kin thi tit cc oan s gy ra tc
ng trc tip ln sc khe, iu kin sng v thu nhp/sinh k/ti sn. t nht trong vi thp k
ti, tc ng chnh ca BKH ln khu vc th c nhiu kh nng s ngy cng tng. i vi
khu vc dn c ngho, mt s tc ng l trc tip, v d nh l lt xy ra thng xuyn v nguy
him hn. Mt s tc ng t trc tip hn v d nh vic gim ngun cp nc sch cho ton
thnh ph s dn n vic gim ngun cp nc cho khu vc dn c ngho (hoc s dn n
tng gi). Mt vi tc ng l gin tip v d nh tc ng ca BKH gy ra cc hin tng
thi tit cc oan s lm gi lng thc tng hay gy thit hi ti sn ca cc h gia nh ngho
hoc s lm gin on ngun thu nhp ca dn ngho.
Ti hu ht cc thnh ph, ngi ngho sng trong mi trng c nhiu nguy c ri ro
nht - v d nh khu vc thot l hoc cc khu vc mc xy ra l lt thng xuyn hoc
c dc khng n nh (Hardoy, Mitlin v Satterthwaite, 2001). Nh cp trn, y
thng l cc khu vc chu nhiu ri ro nht t bin i kh hu. Thm vo , ti hu ht cc
thnh ph, ngi ngho th thng c mi quan h khng tt vi chnh quyn a phng
trong khi chnh quyn li l ngi ln k hoch hnh ng gim thiu ri ro. Mt phn,
l bi v hu ht ngi ngho sng nhng khu vc khng chnh thc (bao gm c ln chim
t ai mt cch bt hp php) v lm vic trong khu vc kinh t phi chnh thc (v do
khng chu s nh hng bi nhng quy tc v quy nh chnh thc). Phn khc, l v thi
"chng li ngi ngho" ca cc quan chc chnh ph da trn nhng quan nim sai lm.
V d, cc quan chc v cc chnh tr gia thng cho rng nhng ngi sng cc khu nh
c khng chnh thc b tht nghip trong khi thc ra h lm vic cho khu vc kinh t phi
chnh thc, hoc l h l dn nhp c mi trong khi thc ra h lm vic v sng trong cc
trung tm th t rt lu (hoc nhiu ngi sinh ra ), hoc l nhng ngi nhp c c
th khm kh hn nu h khng di c (trong khi nhiu nghin cu v di dn cho thy rng
cc dng di dn l cu tr li hp l cho cc c hi kinh t). Mt tnh d tn thng na m
phn ln ngi ngho th phi i mt l chnh ph c th san bng cc khu nh c ca h
xa tn chng ra khi khu vc c coi l d b tn thng do (v d) l lt trong khi
khng cung cp tha ng cc khu ti nh c p ng nhu cu ca h. Thm ch ngay c
nhng chnh quyn th c trch nhim v nng lc cng gp nhiu kh khn trong vic gii
quyt vn ny bi cc nhm thu nhp thp cn v tr trung tm c c hi to ra thu nhp
tt v nu h phi di chuyn khi cc khu vc c coi l nguy him th rt kh tm cc

khu vc ti nh c thch hp.

Nhn chung, bt k khu vc th no, i tng chu ri ro ln nht t BKH l
nhng ngi m:

- t c kh nng trnh nhng tc ng trc tip hay gin tip (v d nh s hu nh

cht lng tt v h thng thot nc phng l tt, bng cch di chuyn n khu vc t c ri
ro hn hay c th thay i ngh nghip nu BKH e da sinh k ca h)

- C kh nng b nh hng nhiu nht (v d tr nh hay ngi cao tui l nhng i

tng t c kh nng chng chi vi nhng t nng)

- t c kh nng chng chi vi bnh tt, thng tch, t vong hay mt i ngun thu
nhp, sinh k hay ti sn bi tc ng ca BKH
Ngi ngho chu nh hng nng nht khi cc yu t kt hp nh kh nng tip xc
vi ri ro ln (v d, nhiu ngi dn ngho sng trong nh tm ti cc khu vc khng an
ton), thiu cc c s h tng cn thit chng chi vi thin tai v kh nng thch ng hn
ch (v d, thiu ti sn v bo him), nhn c t tr gip ca nh nc, t s bo v php l
hoc bo v bi bo him. Nhm c thu nhp thp cng khng c kh nng di chuyn ti cc
khu vc nguy him t hn do nhng khu vc cng nguy him l khu vc m ngi thu nhp
thp c th tm c nh va vi ti tin v c th xy dng ngi nh ring ca h.
Giu c gip cc c nhn v h gia nh gim bt ri ro - v d nh vic c nh an
ton hn, la chn cng vic an ton hn hoc a im sinh sng an ton hn, s hu ti sn
m c th s dng trong trng hp khn cp v bo v ca ci ca h bng cch mua bo
him cho tnh mng v ti sn. Mc d v l thuyt h thng qun tr tt phi c cc bin
php gim thiu ri ro cho ton b c dn th v s chnh lch ri ro gia cc nhm c thu
nhp khc nhau phi c gim thiu, thc t l nhm c thu nhp cao thng c nhiu nh
hng n chi tiu cng v mt thc t ph bin l nhng nhm c thu nhp trung v cao
c hng hu ht li ch em li t u t vo h tng v dch v ca chnh ph. Nu chnh
ph khng u t th nhm c thu nhp cao vn c cc ngun lc t gii quyt nhng vn
ny, v d bng cch t cung cp nhng dch v v sinh, nc v in hoc chuyn n
nhng khu th do t nhn xy dng m c cung cp nhng dch v ny. Thc vy, qu
trnh ti thit sau thin tai c th cung cp c hi kim li cho cc nh u t t nhn v y
c coi l mt trong nhng l do ti sao thin tai c qun l thng qua vic ti thit sau
thin tai hn l qun l ri ro trc thin tai m c li cho cc chnh sch x hi gim thiu
tnh d tn thng ca ngi ngho v tng cng cc c s h tng ton thnh ph nh c s
h tng thot nc v v sinh mi trng.
Cht lng ca chnh quyn - c cp quc gia v cp a phng (qun/huyn) u c nh
hng ti mc ri ro t BKH v i mt vi nhng gii hn v thu nhp v ti sn bng
theo nhng cch sau:
Cht lng ca vic cung cp c s h tng cho mi khu vc ( hn ch nguy c l lt cho
ton thnh ph, ch khng ch quan tm n khu vc ngi giu sinh sng) v qun l s dng
t ( hn ch s nh c khu vc c kh nng xy ra ri ro cao hoc lm cho nhng khu
vc ny c kh nng chng chi tt hn vi ri ro)
Cht lng ca vic chun b phng chng thin tai (bao gm cnh bo, nhng bin php
hn ch thit hi, nu cn thit, s chun b tt gip ngi dn di chuyn sang khu vc an
ton hn mt cch nhanh chng)
Cht lng ca vic quy hoch kt hp vi ng ph thm ha (v d dch v gii cu v dch

v chm sc sc khe, dch v khn cp) v cht lng ti thit ( gip ngi dn mt nh
ca v cng n vic lm) nhm duy tr kh nng ng ph ca ngi dn nhng him khi t
c iu
M rng phm vi ngi ngho c th xy nh, mua nh v thu nh m bo cht lng
khu vc an ton;
Mc m chnh quyn a phng to ra mt mi trng thun li cho hot ng x hi
ti cc a phng gp phn hng ti gii quyt cc mc tiu thit thc c xc nh
trn.

D. LM TH NO CNG TC THCH NG LIN QUAN N CHC NNG CHNH

CA CHNH QUYN TH
1. Thiu kh nng thch ng
Thnh ph v chnh quyn thnh ph c trch nhim chnh v lp k hoch, thc hin v
qun l hu ht cc bin php m c th gim bt ri ro (v tnh d b tn thng ca mt b
phn dn c) t nhng tc ng trc tip v gin tip ca BKH - thng qua cung cp c s h
tng v dch v, c s chun b trong cng tc ng ph vi thin tai, quy hoch v khung php l.
nh gi th t ca IPCC cho thy kh nng thch ng cao gn lin vi cc thnh ph
c qun tr tt (Wilbanks, Romero Lankao et al., 2007). Ti cc quc gia c thu nhp cao, c dn
th tr nn quen thuc vi mt mng li c s h tng, dch v v nhng quy nh bo v h
khi cc hin tng thi tit/l lt khc nghit. Nhiu bin php c s dng phc v nhu cu hng
ngy cng nh l bo v khi cc hin tng thi tit cc oan v d, dch v chm sc sc khe
v h thng thot nc mt. Cnh bo bo sm, phn ng nhanh ca lc lng cnh st, cc dch v
y t, cu ha l cc bin php c trng i. nhng quc gia c thu nhp cao, rt him khi iu
kin thi tit khc nghit gy ra tn tht nng n v ngi hay gy thng tch nghim trng. i
khi, chng gy thit hi ti sn nng n tuy nhin i vi ch s hu ti sn th thit hi v gi tr
kinh t gim i ng k bi h c bo him. Nng lc thch ng nh vy cn c cng c bi s
tun th cc quy nh trong xy dng cng trnh m bo an ton v sc khe, c phc v y
bi nc my, cng, nhng con ng hot ng trong mi iu kin thi tit, in & nc 24
gi mt ngy. Cc chi ph tr cho vic cung cp c s h tng v dch v ch chim mt t l nh
trong tng thu nhp ca hu ht ngi dn, d l tr ph trc tip nh ph dch v hay thng qua
thu. Thnh ph v chnh quyn thnh ph c tm quan trng rt ln trong hu ht cc vic trn;
mc d vai tr ca chnh quyn thnh ph hay rt khc nhau trong nhng h thng khc nhau. S
khc nhau th hin trong vai tr ca chnh quyn a phng trong vic ln k hoch, cung
ng v h tr ti chnh v c trong bn cht cc mi quan h ca chnh quyn a phng vi cc
cp cao hn. Cc cng ty t nhn hoc cc t chc phi li nhun c th cung cp mt vi dch v
thit yu nhng c ch ca vic kim sot cht lng v cung ng th do c quan a phng hay
chnh quyn a phng, chnh quyn trung ng hoc cp tnh quyt nh. Nhn chung, phn ln
ngi dn tham gia rt t trong vic qun l nhng dch v ny v h cho rng h thng nh nc s
m bo chc chn s cung ng v c rt nhiu knh khiu ni nu cn thit v d nh nhng
chnh tr gia hay lut s, thanh tra, ngi tiu dng v nhng t chc gim st. V vy , phn ln c
dn th c bo v khi cc hin tng thi tit cc oan m khng phi tham gia vo h thng
th ch bo v . Trong khi che ph ca dch v c th di chun v mt s nhm c th
khng c phc v tt, mt t l ln ngi dn th c phc v v bo v tt. t nht trong vi
thp k ti, kh nng thch ng ny chc chn c th i ph vi hu ht cc tc ng ca BKH ti
hu ht cc trung tm th cc quc gia c thu nhp cao. Tuy nhin, c th c mt s a im
c nh gi l qu tn km bo v - v r rng, kh nng thch ng gim thiu ri ro ph
thuc vo cc bin php gim nh c hiu qu.
Vic liu kh nng thch nghi cao ny thc s s em li mt s thch ng ph hp li l
mt cu chuyn khc; mt nh gi chi tit v kh nng v hn ch trong vic thch ng khu
vc xung quanh Vnh Mexico cho thy nhiu v d v vic chnh quyn a phng M
khng hon thnh trch nhim ca h trong cng tc gim thiu ri ro v cho php xy dng

cng trnh ti cc khu vc c ri ro cao. Cng c v d cho thy mt s chnh sch cng v chnh
sch tr gi to iu kin cho vic pht trin nhng khu vc ri ro cao (Levina, Ramos v
Ortiz, 2007). Mt nh gi chi tit sau cn bo Katrina ghi nhn rng c quan chnh quyn a
phng ti M vi cc chnh sch ca mnh l nguyn nhn chnh trong vic tng dn s tp
trung ven bin H pht l bn ngp l ca lin bang, ra nhng quyt nh quan trng trong
vic phn chia khu vc v s dng t m to iu kin cho cc d n bi chn lp v thot nc,
gim thu cho cc doanh nghip Ti nhng khu vc nguy him, nhng sng kin h tr pht
trin vt pht l cc bin php gim nh thm ha v qu trnh ny gp phn ph hy cc vng
t ngp nc, rng v nhng vng m t nhin khc gip chng chi li bo t. Cc khu vc
ven bin tr nn nguy him hn khng ch bi tng dn s v ti sn m cn v cc bin php bo
v ngy cng lc hu do u t qu mc vo pht trin kinh t trong khi khng u t thch ng
cho cc bin php gim nh thin tai v pht trin mi trng bn vng (Elliott, 2008). .
Tng phn vi tnh hnh ti cc nc thu nhp cao, nn tng th ch cho cng tc thch
ng ti cc quc gia thu nhp thp - trung bnh cn rt yu. Phn ln c dn th khng c
phc v bi mt h thng th ch, h tng, dch v v cc quy nh php lut y nh cc
nc thu nhp cao. Mt hin tng ph bin l khong 1/3 n 1/2 dn s th sng trong
nhng khu nh c bt hp php khng c trong quy hoch s dng t. nh c bt hp php c
2 dng: chim t bt hp php v chia h bt hp php (hp php v mt t ai do t c
tha thun vi ch s hu t nhng vic tng s ngi sinh sng khng p ng c cc qui
nh v h tng). S nh c ny c khuynh hng tp trung vo cc khu vc c ri ro cao i
vi cc hin tng thi tit cc oan, chnh xc bi v khu vc c ri ro ng ngha vi t c gi
tr thp v gip ngi dn gim thiu kh nng b trc xut.
Cc kho st v vai tr v trch nhim ca chnh quyn th cc quc gia thu nhp
thp - trung bnh (UNCHS Habitat nm 1996; Stren nm 1991; Davey nm 1992; Shah vi Shan
2006) cho thy chnh quyn thng c vai tr chnh vi mt phm vi tng i rng, t cung cp
c s h tng v dch v, nhng iu kin thit yu cho tiu chun cht lng sng v sinh k - v
d cp nc sch, v sinh mi trng, thot nc v thu gom cht thi rn, trng hc, dch v y
t, cu ha v cc dch v khn cp khc. H cng thng c vai tr chnh trong vic thc hin
cc qui nh php l m bo sc khe cng ng v an ton (v d thng cc qui nh v xy
dng, sc khe v an ton lao ng, kim sot nhim, kim sot giao thng v cnh st) v trn
l thuyt, mt vai tr quan trng trong quy hoch th (v trong qun l s dng t). Tt nhin,
c nhiu phng thc can thip ca chnh quyn a phng, v d nh phm vi v mc cung
cp dch v, mc thu cc n v t nhn, hay phn cp trch nhim thc hin. Tuy nhin,
mc trch nhim m chnh quyn th thc s p ng c bn phn ca h c ngha ln
i vi tiu chun v cht lng sng (bao gm c cht lng mi trng th) - v hin nhin
c vi nng lc thch ng.
Gn nh tt c chnh quyn th ti cc nc c thu nhp thp - trung bnh khng thnh
cng trong vic thc hin trch nhim ca h hay ch p ng c cho mt b phn dn s.
iu ny c th thy c qua mc bt cp trong cung ng cc c s h tng v dch v m
h c ngha v cung cp (hoc m bo cung ng thng qua cc nh cung cp khc) v mc
chp hnh php lut ca cc cng trnh xy dng (UN Human Settlements Programme 1996;
Hardoy, Mitlin and Satterthwaite, 2001). Tuy nhin, quy m ca nhng bt cp khc nhau rt
nhiu. mt cc, c cc th nh ni hu ht ngi dn sng trong cc ngi nh khng hp
php v khng chnh thc vi h thng c s h tng v dch v c cung cp rt hn ch hoc

khng c cung cp. V d, hu ht cc th ti cc quc gia thu nhp thp ti Chu Phi v
Chu khng c h thng cng thot nc, k c nhiu thnh ph ln v mt t l ln dn c
khng c cung cp nc my v khng c dch v thu gom cht thi rn chnh thc (UNHabitat 2003, 2006; Hardoy, Mitlin v Satterthwaite, 2001). Nhng bt cp ny phn nh thc t
l chnh quyn a phng thiu cc ngun lc thc hin trch nhim ca mnh - v thng l
vi kh nng rt hn ch thch ng vi u t (gn nh tt c cc khon thu ca a phng
u dnh cho vic tr cc ph tn hoc tr n). Nhng bt cp cng phn nh thc t l chnh
quyn a phng khng i din cho mi ngi dn, khng tin cy v hnh ng chng
ngho do quan nim ca h v nhng ngi dn sinh sng khu nh c bt hp php v lm
vic trong nn kinh t phi chnh thc nh mt vn ng lo ngi.
thi cc khc l nhng v d ca cc thnh ph v cc trung tm th nh hn m vn
tn ti mt s bt cp v thiu st trong vic cung cp c s h tng v dch v nhng ch nh
hng n mt b phn nh dn c. iu ny cho thy chnh quyn th c trch nhim hn
vi cng dn trong thm quyn ca h v trong phm vi c cu chnh ph quc gia m h tr cho
chnh quyn a phng cng vi nn dn ch mnh m hn. Ti nhiu th chu M
Latinh, cht lng v mc bao ph ca vic cung cp nc v v sinh c ci thin rt
ng k trong hai thp k qua, mt s trong c mc bao ph gn 100% (UN Habitat, 2006;
Heller, 2006). Mt s quc gia cng c nhng thay i hin php hay php l, iu gip
tng doanh thu ca chnh quyn thnh ph v cng c nn dn ch a phng (Campbell, 2003,
Fernandes, 2007; Cabannes, 2004). Ngoi ra s lng chnh quyn a phng c quan h i tc
thnh cng vi khu vc thu nhp thp tng ln ng k v cc t chc cng ng th hin hiu
qu hn trong vic thc hin trch nhim ca mnh i vi c s h tng v dch v (D'Cruz v
Satterthwaite, 2005; Hasan, 2006).
S bt cp trong quyn a phng c rt nhiu l do. Ti nhiu quc gia, l do cc di
sn th ch t ch thc dn v s tp trung ha ca chnh ph sau thi k c lp. Cng c
nhng ng dng cc m hnh du nhp ca quy hoch th v chnh ph nhng t ra khng ph
hp vi bi cnh a phng v khng kh thi. V d, tnh thit thc ca cc tiu chun chia h
vi kch thc ti thiu cho l t, v cc tiu chun c s h tng lm hu ht dn s thnh
ph khng th c t xy nh v iu ny r rng l c vn . Nu mt na thnh ph l dn c
sng trong cc khu nh c bt hp php v cc n v nh mi nht ang c xy dng trong
khu nh c bt hp php th n cho thy rng y l li ca php lut ch khng phi li ca
nh v cc khu nh c bt hp php.
Trong hai thp k qua, cc yu t khc cng c tm quan trng, bao gm nhng p lc
bn ngoi ph hy hoc lm suy yu nh nc v h tr cho vic bi b iu l v c su t
nhn ha (Rakodi, 1999). iu ny c thc y vi hy vng rng s gip pht trin kinh t
mnh m hn. C th lp lun rng s thiu tin b ti hu ht cc th trong vic ci thin
cung cp nc v v sinh trong vng 20 nm qua l kt qu ca vic nhiu c quan quc t ln
nh gi qu cao vai tr ca t nhn ha trong vic ci thin v m rng mng li cung cp
dch v (Budds v McGranahan 2003; Warwick v Cann 2007). Thm vo , mc d cc c
quan quc t bt u nhn ra tm quan trng ca vic h tr "qun tr tt" t nhng nm 90,
nhng nhng chng trnh "qun tr tt" ca h ni chung ch tp trung cp quc gia v thiu
quan tm thch ng ti vic nng cao tnh cnh tranh, nng lc v trch nhim ca chnh quyn
a phng (Satterthwaite, 2005).

Ngoi ra cn c mt thc t l hu ht cc c quan vin tr song phng v cc t chc

phi chnh ph quc t t chi hot ng ti khu vc th do nhn thc khng ng rng c dn
th c hng li t s thin v th. C th c bng chng v cc thnh ph c th
hng li t s thin v th trong cc chnh sch ca chnh ph v mc chi tiu nhng nhn
chung xu hng ny mang li t hoc khng c li cho a s nhng ngi sng v lm vic ti
cc thnh ph ny - c bit l nhm c thu nhp thp. Vic tp trung u t xy dng bnh vin,
trng i hc, h thng cung cp nc my v h thng cng u tp trung cc thnh ph
khng c ngha l ngi dn c thu nhp thp cng nhn c k li ch. Ngoi ra, trong hu ht
cc quc gia, c rt t hoc khng c bng chng no v nhng chnh sch hoc s thin v u t
l c li nht cho hu ht khu vc th (Satterthwaite, 2007b; Corbridge v Jones, nd). Vn
thiu cung ng c s h tng v dch v vn tip tc l vn nan gii ti cc th cc quc
gia thu nhp thp do quyn lc v ngun lc sn c ca chnh quyn th khng dnh dng g
n trch nhim ca h.
2. Vai tr v trch nhim ca chnh quyn th
Nu vai tr ca chnh quyn a phng trong vic thch ng vi bin i kh hu cn
c hiu r th iu quan trng l hiu c quy m v phm vi ca s tham gia ca chnh
quyn th. Chnh quyn th thng c mt lot cc vai tr tiu biu c nu theo tm vn
lit k di y - mc d c nhiu s khc bit lin quan n s kt hp gia cc vai tr cng
nh cu trc ca chnh quyn, s tin tng/quan h gia cc nh chnh tr v cng chc. Tt
nhin, cng c s khc bit rt ln trong phm vi trch nhim ca h v kh nng c p ng.
Ni chung, c s phn chia ca cc lnh vc sau y:
Ti chnh: Qun l ngn sch / ti khon (m cng c th qun l h s d thu ca chnh quyn
a phng) v cc khon thu (qun l thu bt c loi thu, ph no c php ca chnh quyn
a phng; c th bao gm mt lot cc giy php quan trng kim sot).
K thut / Cng trnh cng cng: thng bao gm sa cha bo tr ng b theo thm quyn
ca h, n ng, qun l cc ta nh chnh ph v c th l mt s qu nh cng cng.
Quy hoch pht trin v kim sot pht trin: Kim sot kim tra xy dng, qun l v quy
hoch s dng t (bao gm c quy nh), ng k t ai v quy hoch th.
Sc khe mi trng: nc, v sinh, bo thot nc mt (mc d nhng cng vic ny c th
nm trong cc cng trnh cng cng), thc hin cc quy nh v sc khe mi trng trong cc
doanh nghip nht nh (v d nh nh hng, qun c ph v khch sn, l m ng vt, ch) v
khu vc cng cng
Y t cng: cc dch v y t (bao gm c bnh vin v trung tm chm sc sc khe), thu gom
cht thi rn v qun l.
X hi / cng ng / dch v an ton: Mt s yu t c lit k trn theo mi trng v sc
khe cng ng c th nm trong danh mc ny. Qun l giao thng v qun l nh x hi, th
vin, mt s vai tr trong giao thng cng cng, mt s vai tr trong trng hc v trng mu
gio (mc d trch nhim thng c chia s vi chnh quyn cp cao hn), chnh sch thanh

nin, th thao, vui chi gii tr, cng vin, i khi l cnh st a phng.
Dch v khn cp: cu ha, cu thng, mt s cc trch nhim v s ng ph vi thin tai.
Hnh chnh: bao gm ngun nhn lc v c h thng ng k khai sinh, khai t v kt hn
Nhiu chnh quyn thnh ph cng c cc phng ban thc y pht trin kinh t a
phng v mt s phng ban th c vai tr trong sn xut v phn phi in.
Tng i n gin lit k cc trch nhim ca chnh quyn a phng i vi c s
h tng, cng trnh v dch v m c tm quan trng i vi 4 kha cnh then cht ca thch ng:
bo v trong di hn, hn ch thit hi trc thin tai, ng ph kp thi sau thin tai v ti thit xem bng 2. Cng tung i d dng ch ra nhng bt cp ln trong nhng g c cung ng.
Tin ch chnh ca bng 2 l nu ni bt ln bao nhiu khu vc m chnh quyn a phng phi
ch ng trong vic thch ng. Tuy nhin c mt s a dng trong mi quan h gia chnh quyn
a phng v cc cp chnh quyn cao hn m kh c th tng qut ha, c th bao gm:
1: Mc cng vic thuc trch nhim ca chnh quyn a phng
2: Mc tham gia ca chnh quyn a phng trong tng lnh vc, c th l ai chu trch
nhim quy hoch, xy dng, bo tr cng trnh v c s h tng hay cung ng dch v, phi kt
hp, ti chnh, gim st v quy nh
Khng c s khi qut ha r rng no v c cu ca chnh quyn a phng tt nht. V
d, c th lp lun rng chnh quyn a phng vi s ph thuc nhiu vo ngn sch ca Chnh
ph ti tr cho cc c s h tng v dch v l iu bt li v iu lm gim lin kt gia nhu
cu v ngun lc ca a phng - nhng mt s quc gia vi cc thnh ph c kh nng thch
ng cao li ph thuc vo ngn sch ca Chnh ph. S cn thit phi t vn thch ng vo
trong bi cnh ca a phng cho thy vai tr ch o ca chnh quyn a phng, tuy nhin
chnh quyn a phng thng tp trung vo cc mc tiu ngn hn v u tin cho pht trin
kinh t thay v gim thiu ri ro trong di hn.
R rng, thch ng lin quan n vic thay i chnh sch v thc tin ti nhiu khu vc
ca chnh quyn a phng. Mt cu hi quan trng - l c mt c ch khuyn khch v hp
nht tt c nhng vic ny khng? V d, nu c mt k hoch pht trin a phng mnh m
m s cung cp mt khun kh cho u t v qun l s dng t trong tng lai, liu khi c
th lng ghp cc bin php thch ng vo trong k hoch ny. Nhng thc t l nhiu th
khng c k hoch pht trin nh vy - hoc nu c, phn ln cc d n u t mi, pht trin
th li khng nm trong k hoch pht trin.
3. Xy dng v thc hin cc chnh sch thch ng
Phn ln chnh quyn th ti cc quc gia c thu nhp thp v trung bnh khng xem
xt mt cch nghim tc vn thch ng. V d ti Trung Quc, Chi l, Argentina v Mxico,
chnh quyn trung ng cng bt u quan tm n kh nng thch ng nhng cha c s tham
gia rng ri ca cc b ngnh v cc cp chnh quyn (Satterthwaite, Huq, Pelling et al.,2007).
C kh nng l c mt s nhm lm ng k gia cc chnh tr gia a phng v cng chc v

bin i kh hu v cch thc ng ph. Ngay c cc thnh ph ti cc quc gia c thu nhp cao
vi nhn thc cao v BKH m c nhng c gng ng k gim thiu pht thi cng
khng c hnh ng ng k no thch ng (Ligeti, Penney and Wieditz, 2007). Tt nhin, s
thiu quan tm ti vn thch ng kh c th c ci thin bi thiu d liu lin quan n tc
ng trc tip v gin tip ca bin i kh hu mi khu vc th. Thnh ph Durban Nam
Phi l trng hp c bit khi xy dng c mt chng trnh thch ng vi BKH c
miu t di y trong khung 1.
Khung 1: S thch ng ca thnh ph Durban Debra Roberts
Cc qun l mi trng c thnh lp ti Durban vo nm 1994. Cng vic trong thi
gian u ca cc l quan st nh hng pht trin th kt hp vi nhng vn mi trng
cp bch. Durban l mt trong nhng thnh ph Chu Phi c chng trnh ngh s 21, ph hp
vi nhng g cc chnh ph trn th gii ng ti Hi ngh thng nh Tri t ca Lin
Hp Quc nm 1992. Nhng ngnh khc nhau cng bt u c nhn thc v s cn thit ca yu
t BKH trong k hoch ca h - v d nh cp nc v chm sc sc khe. Nhng quan chc
thnh ph s khng hnh ng nu h thiu hiu bit v cc kha cnh ca BKH. gii quyt
vn ny, Cc qun l mi trng khi xng mt chng trnh bo v kh hu trong nm
2004. Ni dung ca chng trnh din ra trong 3 giai on:
Giai on 1: R sot v xy dng s hiu bit v bin i kh hu vng min v ton cu
v din dch n thnh thnh cc ng cho Durban. Tc ng chnh bao gm s gia tng nhit ,
thay i s phn phi ma (trong thi gian di khng c ma v sau l nhng khong thi
gian ngn vi ma cng cao), gim lng nc d tr v c sn, tng phm vi c bnh
truyn nhim, mc nc bin dng, v s suy gim a dng sinh hc
Giai on 2: Xy dng mt Chin lc trng tm thch ng vi bin i kh hu cho
thnh ph nhn mnh phng thc ng ph vi hin tng bin i kh hu ca cc ngnh. S
can thip ny nhm tng cng v m rng cc sng kin hin c (v d nh m hnh truyn
nhim v mi tng quan vi BKH) hay thc y hot ng mi nh chng chi li kh hu
(climate proofing) ca h thng khng gian m ca thnh ph thng qua qun l ma trn (tc l
qun l cnh quan th xung quanh khu vc t nhin theo cch h tr s sng v pht tn cc
loi bn a) v to ra cc hnh lang phn tn Bc-Nam.
Giai on 3: Kt hp bin i kh hu vo quy hoch di hn ca thnh ph, bao gm
pht trin mt m hnh cho php m phng, nh gi v so snh cc quy hoch chin lc pht
trin th trong bi cnh bin i kh hu. iu i hi phi c c s hiu bit v nh
hng ca bin i kh hu Durban v mt nh gi da trn m hnh v tnh hiu qu ca cc
phng php tip cn khc trong vic gim thiu v thch ng. iu ny lin quan n vic s
dng kim ton pht thi kh nh knh (tc l lp ra mt bn k tt c cc loi kh nh knh pht
thi do cc hot ng trong khu vc thnh ph) cng vi mt nh gi v tnh d tn thng ca
thnh ph trong cc lnh vc quan trng nh nc, sc khe v v sinh mi trng, c s h tng
ven bin, qun l thin tai v a dng sinh hc.
Ngun: Roberts 2008

C l hai thng ip chnh s nhn c s quan tm ca chnh quyn th l:

1: S chng cho rt ln gia phn ln cc bin php cn thit thch ng v pht

trin a phng (c bit l vic ci thin v m rng cung cp nc sch, h thng
thot nc v v sinh mi trng tt, thu gom cht thi rn, x l rc thi, chm sc sc
khe phng nga v h tr nng cp nhng khu vc nh c khng chnh thc);
2: S chng cho rt ln gia thch ng vi bin i kh hu v kh nng phc hi
sau thin tai (d c hay khng mi lin h gia cc hin tng thi tit cc oan v
nhng xc tc khc vi bin i kh hu).
iu then cht trong hu ht cc trng hp thch ng vi bin i kh hu l
nhng chnh quyn th c thm quyn, c kh nng, c trch nhim hiu phng thc
kt hp cc bin php thch ng vo hu ht cc mt cng tc v chc nng nhim v ca
cc phng ban. Nhiu bin php cn thit c khi ch l s iu chnh rt nh t cc bin
php hin c - v d nh iu chnh quy chun xy dng, quy nh phn chia t ai, qun
l s dng t v cc tiu chun cho c s h tng - nhng tng ca tt c cc iu chnh
nh theo thi gian c th xy dng kh nng phc hi m khng cn nhiu chi ph. Cc
trung tm th phi i mt vi nhng thch thc ln nht l nhng th c v tr ri ro
cao m chnh quyn a phng thiu kh nng trch nhim - v thng c c s h tng
v dch v hn ch.
Nh Bng 2 cho thy tng i r rng, s thch ng tt vi bin i kh hu s
lin quan n mt nhiu c quan ban ngnh thuc chnh quyn th - trong s c th
l cc c quan bn cng. Cng cn c s tham gia ca nhiu c quan ca chnh quyn cp
thp hoc cao hn. Tht kh ch r cc im can thip thch hp nht trong c cu
chnh quyn a phng. Trc tin, iu ny ph thuc vo cu trc ca chnh quyn
thnh ph v thng cng ph thuc vo chnh quyn cp trn (do chnh quyn cp trn
th kim sot hay c tc ng ln ti chnh quyn th). Chnh quyn cc cp c vai tr
quan trng - v d vi nhiu th, c nhng chc nng chnh c qun l cp thp
hn (v d nh cp qun, phng). Nhiu thnh ph ln cng c hnh thnh bi nhiu
th ring bit vi nhng kh khn nghim trng v hp tc lin th (v d nh b chi
phi bi cc phe phi chnh tr khc nhau) vi s thay i ln trong phm vi chc nng
c qun l mt mc cao hn (tnh). Ngoi ra cn cn c s tham d rng ri ca
cn b a phng - t nhng thnh vin ca hi ng nhn dn n cc cuc tho lun
k thut vi cc chuyn gia v cc phng ban chuyn mn.
4. Cc can thip cn thit thch ng vi nhng ri ro t kh hu
1. Xy dng c s thng tin hin trng. Mt phn quan trng ca vic ny l xem
xt tc ng ca cc hin tng thi tit cc oan trong qu kh v nhng thin tai khc
ln mi thnh ph hoc mi vng th. Cn tm cho c cng nhiu chi tit cng tt, k
c nhng thm ha nh" (nhng thm ha m khng c trong c s d liu thin tai
quc t). (1) iu ny c th tm thy phng php kim k ca Des Inventar c xy
dng cho chu M Latinh v p dng rng ri cc ni khc. Phng php ny xem xt

k thin tai bt k a phng no v bao gm c nhng "thm ha nh." V d, mt c

s d liu Cape Town pht hin ra hn 12.500 s c, tri ngc hn vi 600 s kin
ln c cng b (Bull-Kamanga et al, 2003.). Hu nh mt na s ny xy ra ti nhng
khu nh c khng chnh thc. Mt phn tch v cc s kin thin tai Mexico trong giai
on t nm 1970 n nm 2001 cho thy, tm cch ghi li tt c cc s kin c t mt
ngi cht tr ln v pht hin ra rng l lt l thm ha ph bin nht. Mt phn t s
ca t vong do nhng trn l lt c t hn bn ngi cht - ngha l qu nh tng hp
trong b d liu thin tai quc t (xem v d v Mombasa, Awuor, Orindi v Adwerah
2008).
2. Tin hnh nh gi tnh d b tn thng/ri ro ca thnh ph vi cng nhiu
thng tin a l cng tt; cn lin kt vi cc bn thin tai trong th hin chi tit cc
cng trnh v khu dn c nm trong vng nguy him - bao gm vic nhn din cc nhm
dn c hoc cc khu nh c c nguy c chu ri ro cao nht v cc hot ng c th gy
ra ri ro (v d cc nh my x l nc thi d b l lt). T y c th tin hnh nh gi
xem cc cng trnh v h thng h tng c th chu ng c cc hin tng thi tit cc
oan hay khng.
3. Da vo cc iu trn, tho lun xem vic gii quyt cc vn trn c th c
lng ghp vo trong chng trnh ca chnh quyn th nh th no.
Ton b qu trnh ny nn c nhn nhn l rt hu ch khng ch cho cng tc
thch ng vi bin i kh hu m cn vt xa hn th do gip ghi li v v bn cc ri
ro mi trng khc cng nh nhng i tng chu ri ro.
C th cn n mt "v d v thc tin tt" - thuyt phc chnh quyn th v
s cn thit khi ng qu trnh ny. Bo co nh gi tin trnh thch ng vi BKH
cc nc OECD c th rt hu ch, khi ch ra cc giai on quan trng t nh gi tc
ng n nh hnh ng v cui cng thc hin cc gii php thch ng (xem hnh II).
Mc d s ny c d nh phn nh qu trnh quc gia, n c th c p dng
cho th. Trong hu ht cc quc gia thu nhp trung bnh v thp, cn c s i mi v
s lnh o ca chnh quyn a phng khng ch chng minh ci g l c th nhng
cng gip thit lp hoc ci thin nhng chnh sch quc gia.
E. H TR PHT TRIN V QUN TR TT TI A PHNG
C nhiu kin cho rng phi tng ti tr u t quc t gii quyt cc vn
bt cp v c s h tng th v y l mt khu vc quan trng m cc khon ti tr mi
hoc m rng cho cng tc thch ng vi bin i kh hu cn tp trung. Nu cc nh ti
tr quc t mun tp trung kinh ph ch cho cng tc thch ng vi bin i kh hu th
y c th l mt vn - t nht bi qu nhiu th cn c u t cho cng tc thch
ng vi khuynh hng thay i kh hu trong khi vai tr ca cc yu t bin i kh hu
l khng chc chn. ng trn phng din pht trin, s khng hp l khi tch ring cc
khon ti tr cho cng tc thch ng vi nhng ri ro ca bin i kh hu khi ti tr cho

cng tc m rng v cung cp c s h tng v dch v gim cc ri ro mi trng

khc (bao gm nhng vn pht sinh t cc yu t ca kh hu v ng t). Cn thit
phi lm r trch nhim ca cc Quc gia c thu nhp cao trong vic h tr chi ph cho
cng tc thch ng ti cc Quc gia c thu nhp trung bnh v thp chng li cc ri ro
ngy mt gia tng do BKH. Nh vy, nhng khon ti tr cho BKH cn phi c b
sung thm vo lung h tr pht trin hin nay thm ch l nhng khon h tr ny cn
phi c lng ghp mnh hn na trong nhng khon u t cho pht trin.
Tuy nhin, vic tng ti tr cho cng tc thch ng s khng t c kt qu cao
tr khi chnh quyn a phng c nng lc ph hp trong s dng vn v lm vic hiu
qu vi cc nhm ri ro cao nht. iu ny c th gy ra nhiu kh khn cho cc c quan
h tr pht trin chnh thc. Vic xy dng cc chnh quyn a phng c nng lc v
trch nhim l mt qu trnh phc tp v kh khn. iu ny s gy ra nhng kh khn
cho cc t chc bn ngoi trong vic tm ra phng thc h tt nht. Ngoi ra, cc c
quan h tr pht trin chnh thc phi lm vic vi hng lot cc c quan cp trung ng
Cc c quan ny thng khng ng h nhng thay i cn thit, c bit l i vi vic
phn cp trong qu trnh ra quyt nh v gia tng ngn sch. Cng cn c nhng cn tr
rt r rng v chnh tr - v d nh chnh quyn trung ng khng mun u t cho cc
chnh quyn th, m cc ng i lp chim u th. Thm vo , cc c quan h
tr pht trin chnh thc khng c thit lp h tr s tham gia ca a phng trong
di hn, mc d y l yu t nng cao kh nng thch ng ca a phng. Cc hi
ng lin chnh ph chu trch nhim gim st cc c quan h tr pht trin chnh thc
thng to p lc mnh m gim thiu cc chi ph i vi nhn vin (xem nh l mt
bin php quan trng tng tnh hiu qu); a ra nhng kt qu r rng v lng ha
c; v hn ch thi gian thc hin cc d n. Thng c mt p lc rt ln v chi tiu hoc i vi cc ngn hng pht trin trong vic tng cc khon cho vay. y khng phi
l khun kh ti chnh thch hp nhm h tr cho vic xy dng nng lc v trch nhim
ca chnh quyn th v cng nh xy dng mi quan h hp tc gia cc t chc x
hi v chnh quyn. hu ht cc quc gia, lm c iu ny cn mt qu trnh t t
v cn mt cam kt lu di. Rt kh o lng hiu qu ca n vi cc ch s nh
lng thng thng. Tr tru thay, trong hu ht trng hp, thc tin tt li lm gim
thiu s tin cn ti tr t bn ngoi, bi v duy tr qu trnh ny v cho php n m
rng ti tt c cc th, cn phi pht trin cc m hnh m c th c duy tr ch yu
bi ngun lc a phng.
Nu cc c quan h tr pht trin chp nhn cn ng h thm cho nhng chnh
quyn th c nng lc, trch nhim thch ng vi bin i kh hu cng nh
pht trin hiu qu hn cc c quan ny cn phi thay i ng k cc thit k cc d n
pht trin. Cng tc thch ng vi bin i kh hu s cn s tham gia/ng h lu di ca
cc c quan ny v nhng h thng ti chnh sang to m cho php dng tin chy mt
cch nhanh chng v d dng ti cc th xc nh c nhng sng kin c cng

nhn. Nhng g l c th v nhng ci g nn c u tin r rng ph thuc vo nng lc

v trch nhim ca chnh quyn a phng. Bng 3 minh ha iu ny bng cch lm ni
bt s khc nhau trong bi cnh ca chnh quyn a phng vi cc nh ti tr bn
ngoi.
Mt phn quan trng ca vic xy dng nng lc thch ng ca a phng l h
tr thch ng vi bin i kh hu m phc v cc nhm c thu nhp thp, c bit l
nhng ngi sng trong cc khu vc c nguy c cao nht t nhng tc ng trc tip v
gin tip ca bin i kh hu. C nhiu kinh nghim tt trong vn ny, v d nh cc
d n "nng cp cc khu chut v nh tm" trong chnh quyn a phng lm vic
vi cc c dn trong cc khu nh c khng chnh thc cung cp c s h tng v cc
dch v v ci thin cht lng nh (xem v d Boonyabancha, 2005). Ngoi ra cn c
nhiu v d v "nng cp" v nhng pht trin nh mi c m nhn bi cc nghip
on c thnh lp bi chnh nhng ngi trong cc "khu chut" hoc "ln tri" m
thng l hiu qu hn v t chi ph hn nhng d n c ti tr bi cc t chc quc t.
Thay vo , cc d n ny c tr gip bi chnh quyn a phng (nh v d ti, n
, Nam Phi, Thi Lan v Malawi) (ibid; Burra, 2005; dCruz and Satterthwaite, 2005;
Manda, 2007; Muller and Mitlin, 2007). Nhng nhng sng kin ny cng cn c tr
gip t cc nh ti tr. V iu ny khng nn c xem nh mt phng n ti tr thay
th cho khon ti tr cho chnh quyn a phng m l yu t ct li xy dng chnh
quyn a phng c nng lc v trch nhim.
Nh vy, c th kt lun rng s ng h cho thch ng vi bin i kh hu cn
c phn nh thng qua cc h thng v c ch ti chnh m cho php nhn rng s cc
sang kin ca chnh quyn a phng v ca cc t chc c s - gip cng c v xy
dng "pht trin a phng tt " v "qun tr a phng tt. S tp trung hin ti trong
Chng trnh Hnh ng Thch ng Quc gia (NAPAs) v thch ng da vo cng ng
b st vai tr ch cht ca chnh quyn a phng (mc d c mt vi thch ng da
vo cng ng c lin quan n chnh quyn a phng). Cn thit c nhng Chng
trnh Hnh ng Thch ng a phng (LAPAs) v nhng Chng trnh Hnh ng
Thch ng thnh ph (CAPAs) nhm cng c v thc y i mi trong Chng trnh
Hnh ng Thch ng Quc gia.
Cng cn nhn mnh rng trong hu ht cc trng hp cn thit c pht trin +
thch ng. Thm ch nhiu chnh quyn Quc gia v a phng c nng lc v trch
nhim s khng tham gia thch ng vi bin i kh hu, tr khi n c xem nh mt
phn ca qu trnh t c cc mc tiu pht trin. iu ny cng ng rng cn da
vo kin thc ca mt vi c quan h tr pht trin chnh thc m c kinh nghim trong
pht trin th.

R rng, cng cn xem xt xem bng cch no thch ng th c th gp phn

gim nh BKH ti tt c cc quc gia v c vi s b tr r rng gia hai vn ny.
Nhng cn ch mt vi kha cnh c bit l trong cc gi nh rng cc bin php lm
gim pht thi kh nh knh p ng mt cch cn thit cho thch ng hay pht trin. Bi
v gim nh ti cc quc gia thu nhp cao tp trung mnh vo vic tng cng hiu qu
nng lng, nn c mt gi nh rng cc bin php c s dng t c iu ny
nn c chuyn giao cho cc quc gia c thu nhp thp v trung bnh ngay c khi mt
vi quc gia c mc pht thi kh cc-bon bnh qun u ngi ch bng 1 phn 50 hoc
thm ch 1 phn 100 ca cc quc gia c thu nhp cao. Ti phn ln cc th nhng
quc gia thu nhp thp v trung bnh, cc u tin cho thch ng vi bin i kh hu cn
tp trung vo vic m rng v ci thin c s h tng v dch v bo v ch khng phi
vic s dng nng lng hiu qu.
Cui cng, cng c mt nhu cu r rng tp trung vo cng tc "chun b cho
thin tai". Cng ng nhng nh hot ng chnh tr - x hi v cc hc gi lm thay
i s hiu bit ca chng ta v nhng g gy ra thm ha v kh nng ngn nga thm
ha "t nhin" (v phn ln cc thm ha thc t l do c s h tng v quy hoch khng
tha ng v cc nhm thu nhp thp khng c s la chn thay th nhng li sng trong
vng c nguy c ri ro cao). Tht ng ngc nhin rng h khng c mt vai tr trung
tm trong vic thch ng vi bin i kh hu, mc d h c th ng gp ln vo s hiu
bit v kh nng v ro cn trong thch ng m gip gim thiu nhng ri ro t thin tai.

CH THCH
1. Trung tm Nghin cu thin tai dch t hc (CRED) nm gi vic truy cp c s
d liu thin tai ton cu c cng b, nh ngha thin tai l "mt hon cnh
hoc mt s kin, bin c vt qu nng lc ca a phng, i hi s gip ,
h tr t cp quc gia hoc quc t." c a vo c s d liu EM-DAT,
phi t c mt trong cc tiu ch sau: thit hi v ngi trn 10; 100 ngi b
nh hng; ku gi s h tr ca quc t; v/hoc tuyn b tnh trng khn cp;
CRED EM-DAT, xem http://www.em-dat.net/. Xem thm International Federation
of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies 2002.

TI LIU THAM KHO

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on the Port-Harcourt-Patani-Warri Road, " Environmental Geology, Vol. 40, Nos.
1 and 2, pp. 153-162.
Adger, Neil, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala et al. (2007), Climate Change 2007:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Summary for Policy Makers, Working
Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Fourth
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Cairncross, Jean- Paul Ceron, Manmohan Kapshe, Robert Muir-Wood and
Ricardo Zapata-Marti (2007), Chapter
7: Industry, Settlement and Society, in Parry, Martin, Osvaldo Canziani, Jean
Palutikof, Paul van der Linden and Clair Hanson (editors) Climate Change
2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II
to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, pp. 357-390.

Bng 1: Cc v d in hnh v cc tc ng hin ti v d bo cc tc ng ca bin

i kh hu ti cng nghip, khu nh c, x hi, v mi tng tc vi cc qu trnh
khc
Cc
hin Cc tc ng
tng
ca hin nay/tnh
bin i kh d b tn
hu
thng
Nhng bin i ln
Bo nhit i,
Thng vong v
bo
thit hi do bo
l gy ra; thit
hi v kinh t; h
thng giao thng,
du lch, c s h
tng k thut
(nh nng lng,
giao thng), bo
him
Ma ln, ngp
Si mn/l t;
lt khu vc ven l; khu nh c,
sng
h thng giao
thng, c s h
tng
Nng/lnh
Tc ng ti sc
khe con ngi;
n nh x hi;
nhu cu v nng
lng, nc v
cc dch v khc
(nh, ngun d
tr nc v
lng thc), c
s h tng k
thut (nh: nng
lng,
giao
thng)
Hn hn
Ngun nc sn
c, sinh k, pht
in, di c, h
thng giao thng
ng thy

b) Thay i cc gi tr trung bnh

Nhit
Chi ph v nhu

Cc qu trnh
khc/ p lc

D bo cc tc Khu vc, i
ng
trong tng b nh
tng lai/ Mc hng
tn thng

S dng t / mt
dn s trong
vng ngp l, v
vng phng l;
nng lc th ch

Mc tn thng
tng ti cc vng ven
bin c bo; c th
nh hng n i
sng, sc khe ngi
dn, du lch, kinh t
v h thng giao
thng, nh ca v
cc c s h tng k
thut khc
Tng t nh cc
cn bo ca vng
ven bin cng vi c
s h tng thot
nc.
Tn thng ti mt
s khu vc v dn c
tng ln, nh hng
ti sc khe, thay
i nhu cu nng
lng

Khu nh c v hot
ng ca vng ven
bin; khu vc v
nhm ngi hn
ch v nng lc v
ngun lc; cc cng
trnh h tng kin
c, ngnh bo him

H thng cung
cp nc; cnh
tranh v s dng
nc; nhu cu v
nng
lng;
nhng kh khn
v nhu cu nc

Gy nh hng ti
ngun nc trong
khu vc b tc ng;
lm xo ng ch
v hot ng kinh t;
u t hn cho cp
nc.

Nhng vng kh
hn v bn kh
hn; nhng khu vc
v nhm ngi
ngho; nhng khu
vc c tnh trng
khan him nc bi
chnh cc hot ng
ca con ngi

Nhng thay i

Thay i nhu cu

Rt a dng, nhng

Tng t nh bo
vng ven bin
cng vi c s h
tng thot nc.
Thit k xy dng
v kim sot nhit
bn trong; Bi
cnh x hi; nng
lc th ch

Tng t nh cc
cn bo vng ven
bin
Khu vc n i;
ngi gi, tr em,
v/hoc rt ngho

cu nng lng;
Cht
lng
khng kh
th; tan bng
vnh cu trong
lng t; hot
ng du lch v
vui chi gii tr;
tiu dng; sinh
k; bng tan

v dn s v kinh
t; thay i v s
dng t; i mi
cng ngh;
nhim khng kh;
nng lc th ch

nng lng; cht

lng khng kh
ngy cng gim;
cc tc ng ti
i sng v sinh
hot ca ngi
dn ph thuc
vo hin tng
bng tan; e da
ti khu nh
c/c s h tng
t hin tng
bng tan trong
lng t mt s
khu vc

mc thit hi ln
hn nhng khu
vc v nhm b hn
ch v kh nng v
ngun lc trong
cng tc thch ng.

Lng ma

Sinh k t sn
xut
nng
nghip, xm
nhp mn, du
lch, c s h
tng
cp,
thot nc,
cung
cp
nng lng

Cnh tranh v
ngun nc gia
cc vng/khu vc
(ngnh); phn b
ngun nc

Ph thuc vo tng
vng, mc thit
hi do nh hng
ca lng ma tng
(l lt, nhng c
th l tc ng tch
cc), v ti mt s
khu vc ma c th
dn ti gim thit
hi (xem phn hn
hn trn)

Khu vc/nhm dn
c ngho

Xm nhp
mn

Tc ng ti
c s h tng
cp, thot nc

Xu hng mch
nc ngm cn
dn

Gia tng mc thit

hi cc khu vc
duyn hi.

Nhng vng t
thp ven bin,
c bit l nhng
khu vc c hn
ch v nng lc
v ngun lc

Xu hng pht
trin, khu nh c
v s dng t
ca vng ven
bin

Trong di hn, mc
tn thng ti
vng thp ven bin
ngy cng tng

Nc bin dng

c) Thay i kh
hu t ngt

S dng t
vng ven bin:
Ri ro v l lt,
ngp ng, c s
h tng cp,
thot nc
Phn tch cc
tc ng tim
tng

Dn s, kinh t, v
thay i cng
ngh, pht trin
th ch

C th gy tc
ng ng k ti
ton b cc khu
vc,cng nh dn
s trn th gii, t
nht l trong 1
khong thi gian
nht nh,

Tng t nh trn

Hu ht cc khu
vc v cc nhm

Nhng m vi ch in nghing cho bit mc rt quan trng trong mt s khu

vc v / hoc lnh vc; nhng mu nht cho bit mc quan trng; khng c mu
cho bit mc quan trng cha r rng.
NGUN: Wilbanks, Tom and Patricia Romero Lankao with Manzhu Bao, Frans
Berkhout, Sandy Cairncross, Jean-Paul Ceron, Manmohan Kapshe, Robert Muir-Wood
and Ricardo Zapata-Marti (2007), Chapter 7: Industry, Settlement and Society, in Parry,
Martin, Osvaldo Canziani, Jean Palutikof, Paul van der Linden and Clair Hanson (editors)
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, pp. 357-390.

Bng 2: Vai tr ca chnh quyn th trong cng tc thch ng

Vai tr ca chnh
quyn th

Bo v di
hn

Cng tc hn
ch thit hi
trc thin tai

ng ph
kp thi
khi thin
tai xy ra

Ti thit

Mi trng xy dng
Quy chun xy dng

Cao

Cao*

Quy nh t s dng
v ng k quyn s
hu

Cao

Khng r

Cao

Xy dng v bo dng
cng trnh cng cng

Cao

Khng r

Cao

Quy hoch th
(gm quy hoch v
kim sot s pht
trin)

Cao

Cao*

Cao

Cao

C s h tng k thut
Cp thot nc ( bao
gm c x l)
H thng v sinh

Cao

Khng r

Cao

Cao

Cao

Khng r

Cao

Cao

Cao**

H thng thot nc

Cao

ng, cu, va h

Cao

in

Cao

Khng r?

Cc c s x l cht
thi rn

Cao

Khng r?

X l nc thi

Cao

Cao

Cao

Cao

Cao

Cao

Cao
Cao
Cao

Dch v
H thng cu ha

Cao

Khng r

Cao

Khng r

Trt t cng cng/an

ninh

Trung bnh

Cao

Cao

Mt s

Thu gom cht thi rn

Cao

Cao**

Cao

Cao

Trng hc

Trung bnh

Trung bnh

Chm sc sc khe/ sc
khe cng ng/ mi
trng sc khe/xe cu
thng

Trung bnh

Trung bnh

Cao

Cao

Giao thng cng cng

Trung bnh

Cao

Cao

Cao

Trung bnh
Phc li x hi (cung
cp dch v chm sc tr
em, ngi gi)

Cao

Cao

Cao

Cao

Cao

Cng tc ng ph vi
thin tai thm ha

* R rng, y l nhng yu t quan trng khng gy cn tr cng tc ng ph kp thi.

** Nng cao nng lc h thng thot nc v m bo thu gom cht thi rn c vai tr c bit
quan trng trc khi c ma ln; nhiu thnh ph ang phi i mt vi ngp ng do cc trn
ma ln c d bo gy ra (v d vo ma ma) v ngp ng trm trng hn khi h thng
thot nc ma khng c xy dng, vn hnh ng quy chun v khng p ng c nhu
cu thot nc..
Ngun: Satterthwaite, David (2007), Integrating Adaptation to Climate Change in
Decision-making at the Urban/Municipal Level in Low- and Middle-income Nations, (first
draft), prepared for the OECD Development Assistance Committee, OECD, Paris, 33
pages.

Bng 3: Cc bi cnh a phng khc nhau m chnh quyn trung ng v cc c

quan quc t c th p dng qun tr tt cho thch ng
Cht lng ca chnh quyn/qun tr a phng
Cc ngun lc sn c
ca a phng

T cu trc chnh quyn

a phng dn ch v c
trch nhim...

...n cu trc chnh

quyn thiu dn ch,
khng trch nhim

T a phng c
ngun lc tng i tt,
chnh quyn a phng
c nng lc k thut
cn thit..

Chnh quyn a phng c

th c nhn nhng ngun
ti tr bn ngoi, bao gm
kinh ph h tr cng tc
thch ng vi bin i kh
hu t h gia nh, cc doanh
nghip t nhn, v kinh ph
ti tr xy dng c s h tng
cn thit v cc dch v h
tr (mc d c cc t
chc trch nhim dn s,
NGOS, doanh nghip t nhn
hoc cc c quan nh nc
cung cp)

H tr di hn cn thit
cho cng tc ci cch c
cu t chc tt c cc
cp chnh quyn; v cng
l h tr cn thit cho cc
c nhn v cng ng a
phng nhm ci thin
cc iu kin a phng
v gy p lc cho chnh
quyn a phng nhm
xy dng b my chnh
quyn tt hn

. n a phng c
ngun lc km, thiu ti
tr, nhng c thu ngn
sch cao v c nng lc
k thut

Cn tp trung ch yu vo
cng tc xy dng nng
lc chnh quyn a
phng v ci thin m
quan h ca chnh quyn
vi ngi dn, t chc x
hi dn s, thnh phn t
nhn hot ng trong lnh
vc cung cp dch v v
h tng k thut (bao gm
c cc nh cung cp phi
chnh thc)

Cng tng t nh trn,

nhng tp trung ch yu
vo cc nh cung cp t
nhn v cng ng a
phng vi mc tiu di
hn l hng n mt
chnh quyn c nng lc,
trch nhim, minh bch.

NGUN: Satterthwaite, David (2007), Integrating Adaptation to Climate Change in Decisionmaking at the Urban/Municipal Level in Low- and Middle-income Nations, (first draft), prepared
for the OECD Development Assistance Committee, OECD, Paris, 33 pages

Hnh 1: Cc quc gia c dn s th cao nht v t l phn trm dn s th

cao nht thuc cc khu vc ven bin c cao thp

Ngun v ch gii: Cc biu ny c xy dng bi Gordon McGranahan, Deborah Balk v

Bridget Anderson t c s d liu ca GRUMP; xem McGranahan, Gordon, Deborah Balk v
Bridget Anderson (2007), "The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human
settlements in low- elevation coastal zones," Environment and Urbanization, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp.
1737. Biu th 2 th hin cc quc gia c dn s th trn 100.000 ngi.

Hnh II: Cc bc chuyn t nh gi n xem xt hnh ng v cui cng l k hoch hnh ng thch ng

Bin i kh hu v nh gi tc ng
e

iu kin hin
ti xu hng
kh hu trong
qu kh

Kch bn bin
i kh hu
v cc vn
lin quan

nh gi tc
ng, ri ro /
tnh tn
thng

Cng tc ng ph
D nh hnh ng

Xc nh cc
la chn cho
cng tc thch
ng

Xem xt cc
chnh sch quy
nh ph hp
vi ng ph

Hnh ng thch ng

Thit lp c ch
t chc cho hot
ng ca a
phng

Hoch nh chnh sch

hoc sa i cc chnh
sch hin ti (qun l c
s h tng v vng ven
bin)

Hp nht r rng
cng tc thch ng
trong cc d n

Ngun: Da trn hnh 6 trong nghin cu ca Gagnon-Lebrun, Frdric v Shardul Agrawala (2006), Progress on Adaptation to Climate Change in
Developed Countries; An Analysis of Broad Trends, ENV/EPOC/GSP(2006)1/FINAL, OECD, Paris, 59 pages.