15 3 ..-..

2548
The Journal of KMITNB., Vol. 15, No. 3, Jul. Sep. 2005

Capture-Recapture

Application of Capture Recapture Method for Estimation of Population Size

in Epidemiology

1.
Capture-Recapture

HIV [1]
[2] [3]
[4-5]


(Incidence)
(Prevalence)

(Case Ascertainment)
capture-recapture

Capture-Recapture
1990 Modesitt [6]
CaptureRecapture
Oregon 1992 Rubin
[7]

2003 Goldman [8]

2. Capture-Recapture
Capture-Recapture

Lincoln-Petersen [9-10]

M
N



n

2
(1)

(2)

(3)
(4)

LincolnPetersen

56

 15 3 ..-.. 2548
The Journal of KMITNB., Vol. 15, No. 3, Jul. Sep. 2005

1 N =500 M
n

m
M
=
n
N

nM
N =
m

(1)

(2)

M =

n =
2
m =
2
N =

f1 = M/N

f 2 = n/N

50

100

0.1

0.2

100

50

0.2

0.1

75

150

0.15

0.3

150

75

0.3

0.15

LincolnPetersen
Chapman
LincolnPetersen
Chapman
LincolnPetersen
Chapman
LincolnPetersen
Chapman

545.84
500.77
547.91
502.49
513.85
499.56
515.26
500.85

(Surveillance
System) Capture-Recapture

Lincoln-Petersen
1951 Chapman [11]

(n + 1)( M + 1)
N =
1
(m + 1)

(3)

Lincoln-Petersen
Chapman N = 500 M n
[12]
1
3. capture-recapture

57

 15 3 ..-.. 2548
The Journal of KMITNB., Vol. 15, No. 3, Jul. Sep. 2005

CaptureRecapture
2
(1)
(2)

(3)
2 (4)
2

Capture-Recapture

Capture-Recapture





(Pilot Study)
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

(1)






(2)

(Stratification)


Capture-Recapture

[13]
Log-Linear

2 [14]
LogLinear Log-It [15]
(3)


2

2 LogLinear


(4)

58

 15 3 ..-.. 2548
The Journal of KMITNB., Vol. 15, No. 3, Jul. Sep. 2005

Chapman Lincoln-Petersen

(n + 1)( M + 1)
(4)
N =
1
(m + 1)

2


2

1 19
1,648
(M = 1,648) 2
662 (n = 662)
2 242 (m
= 242) (4)

Capture Recapture
4,498 ( N =4,498)

M = 1
n = 2
m =
1 2
N =
var
( N ) =

(M + 1)(n + 1)(M m)(n m)

(m + 1) 2 (m + 2)
(5)

95% N
N 1.96 var (N)

(6)

4.

CaptureRecapture

Goldman [8] capturerecapture

1995
Antelope Valley

1995

59

 15 3 ..-.. 2548
The Journal of KMITNB., Vol. 15, No. 3, Jul. Sep. 2005

1. Mastro, T. D., et al. Estimating the number of

HIV-infected drug users in Bangkok: a
capture-recapture method. American Journal
of Public Health. 7 (1994) :10941099.
2. McKeganey, N.,et al. Female streetworking
prostitution and HIV infection in Glasgow.
BMJ. 305 (1992):801-804.
3. Robles, SC.,et al. An application of capturerecapture methods to the estimation of
completeness of cancer registration. J Clin
Epidemiology. 41 (1988) :495-501.
4. Tercero, F., and Anderson, R. Measuring
transport injuries in a developing country: an
application of the capture-recapture method.
Accident Analysis and Prevention. (2002) : 1320.
5. Aptel, I., et al. Road accident statistics:
discrepancies between police and hospital
data in a French island. Accident Analysis
and Prevention. (1998) : 101-108.
6. Modesitt, SK., Julman, S., and Fleming, D.
Evaluation of active versus passive AIDS
surveillance in Oregon. Am J Pubilc Health.
80 (1990) :463-464.
7. Rubin, G.,et al. Using mark-recapture
methodology to estimate the size of a
population at risk for sexually transmitted
disease. Statistics in Medicine. 11 (1992)
:1533-1549.
8. Goldman, G.S. Using capture-recapture
methods to assess varicella incidence in a
community under active surveillance.
Vaccine. (2003) : 4250-4255.
9. Lincoln, F.C. Calculating waterfowl
abundance on the basis of banding returns.
U.S. Department of Agricultural Circular. 118
(1930) : 1-4.

10. Petersen, G. G. J. The yearly immigration of

young place into the limford from the german
sea. Report of Danish Biology Statistics.6
(1896) : 148.
11. Chapman, D. G. Some properties of the
hypergeometric distribution with applications
to zoological censuses. University of
California Pubilcations Stiatistics. (1951):131
160.
12. .

Capture Recapture.
5, 2547.
13. Sekar, CC., and Deming, WE. On a method
of estimating birth and death rates and the
extent of registration. J Am Statist Assoc.
44(1949) : 101-115.
14. McCarty, DJ., et al. Ascertainment corrected
rates:application
of
capture-recapture
method. Int J Epidemiol. 22 (1993) : 559-565.
15. Alho, JM. Logistic regression in capturerecapture models. Biometrics. 46 (1990) :
623-635.
16. Tilling, K., Sterne, JAC. Capture-recapture
models including covariate effects. Am J
Epidemiol. 149 (1999) : 392-400.

60