Running head: SABERMETRICS

Sabermetrics: The Usage of In-Depth Analysis

Brian Hsu

Independent Study
Mrs. Graves
June 15, 2015

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In the Bible, the story of David, a small, yet determined boy who defeats the towering
warrior Goliath with his slingshot tells the tale of an underdog overcoming great odds to achieve
victory through faith and unconventional tactics. Today, sabermetrics has allowed many of the
Davids of baseball to overcome the Goliaths, through careful evaluation of baseball players that
allows front offices to field the best teams with a limited budget through the usage of
unconventional statistics. Since its widespread adoption in the past decade Teams such as the
Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics have been able to consistently field competitive teams
despite having payroll budgets that perennially rank in the bottom of Major League Baseball.
The Story of My Search
I first began to develop an interest in baseball statistics when I picked up the baseball
game, MLB 09: The Show, for the Playstation Portable six years ago. However, then, because the
game placed more emphasis on traditional statistics such as Home Runs and batting average, I
paid very little attention to Sabermetrics. In addition, I knew many of the names of the
sabermetrics from reading baseball articles on Bleacher Report and Yahoo! Sports, but it wasnt
until a few years later, when I saw the movie Moneyball, that I became more invested in these
more sophisticated statistics. It was then that I saw how effective sabermetrics truly can be.
First I needed to know why exactly sabermetrics were so much better than traditional
statistics in evaluating players. In addition, I wanted to know what aspects of a players game
are generally undervalued and which are overvalued and how sabermetrics correct these biases.
I also wanted to know how sabermetrics are used in the lower levels of professional baseball as
well as collegiate and high school baseball and how it impacts how teams draft players. For my
next research question I wished to find out about how sabermetrics can be used to predict future

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performance, if possible. Through research I sought to find answers to all my research questions,
and I was generally successful in doing so.
My search actually began several months ago, when I read the book Moneyball, my
Michael Lewis. The book shed light on certain important sabermetrics like On-Base-Percentage,
stolen-base percentage, and other statistics. It also provided real world examples in that many
players from the 2002 Oakland Athletics team were overlooked by other teams due to
undesirable physical traits or a lack of proficiency in traditional statistics, yet were extremely
successful and integral in propelling the Athletics to a 102-win season and the playoffs. Later on,
when I first began writing blog posts for my iSearch, I reread the plot of the book on Wikipedia
to recall the highlights and major takeaways from it.
During the same time period, I also read several articles from Bleacher Report that
explained certain sabermetrics and their application to current baseball players in determining
their ability. Several articles references fangraphs.com as one of their sources, a Who is search
indicated that the posts were written by baseball enthusiasts and writers, and the data collected
and interpreted as fangraphs.com was taken directly from Major League Baseballs official
website, mlb.com. The data was thus checked to be accurate and supportive of the arguments and
explanations by the bloggers on fangraphs.com as well as Bleacher Report.
I decided to further my search by browsing beyondtheboxscore.com, where one particular
writer, Andrew Ball, caught my attention as he wrote several articles detailing how the culture in
Major League Baseball has changed since the emergence of sabermetrics. A quick background
check on Andrew Ball via Google showed that Ball was previously the manager of baseball
operations for the York Revolution, a baseball team in an independent league, before accepting

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an internship scouting opponents for the Tampa Bay Rays, a team notorious for their
sabermetric-driven front office, according to yorkdispatch.com.
Due to Balls credentials and experiences with baseball front offices, I emailed him
requesting an interview for more inquiry about sabermetrics. However, I forgot to take into the
account that Ball likely has a rigorous schedule needing to travel with the Rays team and scout
their opponents, so unfortunately he has yet to respond.
During this time I had also attempted to visit Bill James Online, a website run by Bill
James, the founder of sabermetrics, which uses sabermetrics to analyze current baseball activities
such as trades and comparisons between players. Once I reached the front page though, it was
apparent that I would have to pay a membership fee to be able to access these posts, so instead I
did not use the website as a source.
Despite these setbacks, I was still able to dig up a lot of information from other websites
that referenced ideas presented by Bill James. The fangraphs.com library was especially helpful
in identifying and explaining how certain stats are used. In addition, a particular hardballtalk.com
article titled How many strikeouts is too many? was also an excellent source in helping me
answer my research question about how college and high school players differ in their likelihood
of success in the Major Leagues.
My Search Results:
Baseball statistics have been an integral part of the sports culture for over a century, with
data being collected even during the early stages of baseball development during the dead ball
era. However, the types of data that have been collected has increased greatly since the 1980s,
when pioneer Bill James, whose publications that analyzed baseball players using obscure

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statistics gave rise to the popularity of sabermetrics for Major League Baseball front offices,
professional baseball players, and ordinary baseball enthusiasts1. Through my research I have
found that sabermetrics are more accurate than traditional statistics in evaluating performance
due to the negation of external factors out of the players control such as luck and park
dimensions, can reduce biases in particular statistics by compiling them into a single value, are a
major reason why collegiate draftees tend to be more successful in Major League Baseball
compared to high school draftees, and can indicate future performance.
One of the greatest benefits in using sabermetrics is that players can be more accurately
evaluated as compared to traditional baseball statistics. For instance, take Pittsburg Pirate Josh
Harrison for example. Harrison had a career year in 2014, with a batting average of .315 that
ranked second in the entire National League. However, his batting average of balls in play
(BABIP), a sabermetric that is often used to tell if a player has been lucky or not and indicate
future regression, was an unusually high .357, which was 19% better than the major league
average2. This indicated that Harrison was due to regress in his performance, and sure enough as
of May 20, 2015 he is batting a meager .245, seventy points below his past years average as his
BABIP returned to the league average. Another problem concerning traditional baseball statistics
are that they fail to take into account many of the factors that indicate a players performance.
While batting average can give a general idea as to a players offensive ability, it only accounts
for base hits and fails to take into account walks, which can sometimes be just as valuable as
hitting singles as either way the player ends up on first base3. Many of those in support of
sabermetrics have also been highly critical of the long revered statistic, runs-batted-in (RBI),
because RBI depends almost entirely on whether or not there are men on base when a player is at
bat and how effective the players hitting behind him are4. Players on more offensively adept

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teams will tend to rack up higher RBI totals while an equally effective player on an offensively
inept club will struggle to drive in runs more as the players before him will be less likely to be on
base and pitchers can pitch more cautiously, knowing that even if they walk him he does not
have to face another dangerous hitter afterwards. Even home run totals, which are generally a
good indicator of a players power, are flawed. A gap hitter who tends to hit line drives will not
hit as many balls out of the park, but will rack up many more doubles and triples, and those extra
base hits put them in scoring position. More recent sabermetric statistics aim to correct many of
these issues.
One issue with traditional statistics is that a position players worth is oftentimes valued
primarily based on their offensive production. However, defense is still a major component and it
can be said that saving a run is just as important as producing one. Thus, WAR (wins-abovereplacement) takes into account all factors of a players game, including defense, offense, baserunning ability, and a number of other factors, into a single value that determines how many
more wins a player contributed to the team compared to an ordinary player that can be obtained
for the minimum salary. One aspect of WAR that is highly effective in determining a players
worth is that it takes into account what position a player plays and adjusts accordingly, since
some positions like catcher, shortstop, and center field require more defensive prowess, while
others such as the designated hitter do not provide much value defensively5. Thus, front offices
can decide how much money to offer a free agent based on their WAR value. As of the 2015
season, one WAR point is equal to roughly seven million dollars6.
Another factor that makes sabermetrics a better indicator of performance is that
many of these statistics correct outside influences that can affect a players traditional statistics.
For instance, players whose home parks have more hitter-friendly dimensions will have better

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traditional statistic values than those whose home stadiums are larger. Therefore, sabermetrics
such as ERA+ (Earned-Run-Average Plus) for pitchers and OPS+ (On-Base Plus Slugging Plus)
are more effective because unlike their traditional counterparts ERA and OPS, they adjust for the
players home park and league to keep them from being at a certain advantage or disadvantage7.
While sabermetrics illustrate what a player has done, certain types of these statistics are
able to predict future success as well. For instance, even if a batter hits for a high average, if his
on-base-percentage (OBP) is only several points higher than his batting average, then it can
indicate a general lack of patience and walks on his part. As a result, despite seemingly appearing
to be an good hitter, his weighted runs created plus (wRC+), which takes into account walks, hit
by pitches, and the types of walks unequally based on their value and adjusts them based on the
league average as well as factors such as the park dimensions in which the player has played in,
will likely be much closer to 100, or league average8. This also brings us to sample size. Sample
size is extremely important in determining if the players performance is truly indicative of his
playing ability. Generally, smaller sample sizes are much more likely to produce results that
deviate greatly from a players overall performance. A career .200 hitter may one week be in a
hot streak and go 10-20 at the plate, producing a .500 average. While his performance may be
due to adjustments made at the plate, the statistical phenomenon of regression towards the mean
says that eventually the player will likely end up hitting much closer to the .200 career average
he possesses9. On the other hand, recent data, usually last seasons totals, should be taken more
importantly since those from previous years, as it is more likely due to a number of factors that
the players numbers decline or improve over time. Also, a player may in fact end up making
adjustments at the plate and end up surpassing his career averages. This is when statistics such as
K% (strikeout percentage), LD% (line-drive percentage), GB% (ground-ball percentage), and FB

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% (fly-ball percentage) are useful. These statistics often indicate if a player will be successful at
the plate. K%, or strikeout percentage, should be analyzed since a player who strikes out more is
a player that does not make contact with the ball as often, which would thus result in a lower
batting average and on-base-percentage. A high LD% is coveted since line drivers generally
indicate that the ball was hit hard and well, and due to their low travel time in the air, have much
greater chances of falling for base hits. On the other hand, a high GB% is generally undesired
unless the player has a lot of speed and can reach base on infield singles. A high FB% can also be
good or bad, depending on the type of hitter. A high FB% is generally undesirable for tradition
speedy leadoff hitters: fast, easily make a lot of contact, but dont possess a lot of power. These
players tend to have lower isolated power values (ISO), which measures a players raw power by
calculating the percentage of his/her base hits going for extra bases, since doubles and home runs
are almost always from balls that are hit into the mid to deep outfield. As a result, cleanup-type
hitters who have high ISOs will want to have a higher FB%, as their home run to fly ball ratio
will be much greater10. Because these statistics can be analyzed on regularly interval basis, front
offices can tell if a player is improving their hitting by cutting down on strikeouts, hitting more
line drivers, etc.
In todays age, Major League Baseball teams use sabermetrics as a major resource during
the annual drafting of high school and college players. In an analysis conducted by Jim Sannes, a
baseball analyst, on 288 college players and 203 high school players drafted in the first round
from 1980-2000, 75.39% of college players drafted ended up in the Major Leagues, compared to
58.00% of high school players11. While a number of a factors such as a more rigorous practice
routine, professional coaching and maturity influencing the higher success rate for college
players, one other factor is that most high school teams lack the resources to compile sabermetric

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data that can accurately depict a players performance, as well as the fact that the competition is
more level at the collegiate level and thus strong performances can be taken more seriously12. At
the high school level, scouts who watch players are only exposed to a small sample size of their
performance, which increases the risk of making an inaccurate perception of a player, especially
since the level of competition varies widely between regions. Since college statistics can be
compiled and front offices can see their statistics for entire seasons, they can make more accurate
conclusions.
My Growth as a Researcher
As a result of this iSearch project, I was surprised to learn much more about sabermetrics
than I expected. While a lot of my information about sabermetrics derived from what reading
Moneyball taught me, I also learned through my research that sabermetrics has changed greatly
in the near decade since the book was released, as new statistics are created to more accurately
evaluate players. I also learned the importance of time management, as the paper required weeks
of research and writing to collect my thoughts and thus I had to divide up my task into individual
goals in answering research questions. Also, while databases such as Proquest were introduced to
but not used by me, I understand that they are viable and excellent resources to find information
and I can potentially use them for future research projects.

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CITED REFERENCES
1. Lewis, Michael. Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. New York: W.W. Norton,
2003. Print.
2. "Josh Harrison Statistics Batting | FanGraphs Baseball." Fangraphs. n.d. Web. 20 May
2015.
3. Weinberg, Mark. "Stats to Avoid: Batting Average | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library."
Fangraphs. 20 Feb. 2014. Web. 20 May 2015.
4. Weinberg, Mark. "Stats To Avoid: Runs Batted In (RBI) | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library."
Fangraphs. 24 Oct. 2014. Web. 20 May 2015.
5. "What Is WAR? | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library." Fangraphs. Web. 29 May 2015.
6. Pollis, Lewie. "How Much Does a Win Really Cost?" Beyond the Box Score. SB Nation, 15
Oct. 2013. Web. 29 May 2015.
7. Rhymer, Zachary. "MLB Sabermetrics for Dummies." Bleacher Report. N.p., 25 Apr. 2015.
Web. 2 June 2015.
8. "WRC and WRC+ | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library." Fangraphs. N.p., n.d. Web. 29 May
2015.
9. "Regression to the Mean." Research Methods. N.p., 20 Oct. 2006. Web. 29 May 2015.
10. Jones, Clave. "Simple Sabermetrics: Illustrative versus Predictive." Fansided. N.p., 25 Nov.
2013. Web. 29 May 2015.
11. Sannes, Jim. "Are Collegiate MLB Draft Prospects Better than High School Ones?"
NumberFire. N.p., 06 June 2014. Web. 7 June 2015.
12. Churchill, Jason. "The Benefits of Drafting Prep Talent." ESPN. ESPN Internet Ventures, 8
Nov. 2011. Web. 7 June 2015.