Professional Documents
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NganHang 020114 VPBS
NganHang 020114 VPBS
THNG 1 NM 2014
BO CO NGNH LN U
Tng trng Huy ng & Tn dng
53,9%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
9,14%
Huy ng
Tn dng
GDP
NHTMNN
NHTMCP
NHLD, NHNNg
Khc
27,7
26,5
32,0
35,1
35,5
34,8
59,3
58,1
54,1
51,4
51,3
51,8
10%
10
8%
6%
6
4%
4
2
2%
--
0%
N xu
www.VPBS.com.vn
T l n xu
Ni dung
TNG QUAN NGNH NGN HNG TH GII................................................................................. 3
CP NHT TNH HNH NGNH NGN HNG ............................................................................... 3
NHNG NGN HNG U NGNH ............................................................................................ 6
TNG QUAN NGNH NGN HNG VIT NAM ............................................................................... 11
LCH S V PHT TRIN ....................................................................................................... 11
Ngn hng thng mi nh nc ......................................................................................... 12
Ngn hng thng mi c phn ........................................................................................... 15
Ngn hng nc ngoi ........................................................................................................ 15
TNG TRNG N TNG TRONG QU KH ........................................................................... 18
Tng trng ti sn ............................................................................................................ 18
Tng trng vn ................................................................................................................ 19
Tng trng huy ng v tn dng ....................................................................................... 23
PHN TCH TH TRNG ....................................................................................................... 25
Th phn ........................................................................................................................... 25
C s h tng ngn hng, phn phi, s thm nhp th trng ................................................ 27
MI TRNG HOT NG ..................................................................................................... 31
Tnh hnh v m ................................................................................................................. 31
Khung php l ................................................................................................................... 36
KT QU HOT NG ........................................................................................................... 38
So snh ROA & ROE ........................................................................................................... 38
Phn tch Dupont ............................................................................................................... 39
Bo co kt qu hot ng kinh doanh ................................................................................. 40
Bng cn i K ton ......................................................................................................... 43
nh gi cht lng tn dng .............................................................................................. 46
RI RO V NHNG VN KHC ........................................................................................... 47
Ri ro thanh khon ............................................................................................................ 47
Ri ro li sut .................................................................................................................... 50
Ri ro tn dng v n xu.................................................................................................... 51
VAMC v cc gii php cho vn n xu ............................................................................. 54
S hu cho ...................................................................................................................... 56
Ngn hng Vit Nam trn con ng n Basel ..................................................................... 57
Cc thng v mua bn v sp nhp gn y ....................................................................... 59
C cn thit phi tch bit ngn hng v cc cng ty chng khon Vit Nam hay khng? ......... 60
TRIN VNG NGNH................................................................................................................ 61
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 2
Trn th gii hin nay c nhiu hnh thc ngn hng tn ti nh ngn
hng t nhn, ngn hng quc doanh, ngn hng thng mi, ngn hng
u t. Mt s ngn hng ch trng vo cc nghip v ngn hng truyn
thng, trong khi s cn li ch thc hin nghip v ngn hng u t, hoc
c hai.
Ngn hng thng mi c hai ngun doanh thu chnh: thu nhp li cho
vay v thu nhp ngoi li. Thu nhp li t hot ng cho vay l nghip v
chnh ca ngn hng.. Thu nhp ngoi li ca ngn hng thng bao gm
thu nhp t ph v dch v t hot ng ngn hng, u t chng khon,
v cc nghip v ngn hng u t nh mua bn sp nhp, qun l ti
sn, bo lnh pht hnh v t vn ti chnh.
i cng vi cc ngun doanh thu, c cu chi ph ca mi ngn hng
thng c hai thnh phn chnh: chi ph hot ng ti cc im giao dch
v chi ph li phi tr cho ngi gi tin. Ngn hng s dng nhiu knh
giao dch khc nhau tip cn khch hng, t mng li cc phng giao
dch truyn thng n my giao dch t ng, dch v chm sc khch
hng qua in thoi, h thng quy giao dch ngn hng ti dch v ngn
hng qua di ng, ngn hng qua Internet. Cc knh giao dch ny thng
tn ca ngn hng mt khon chi ph ln.
Hin nay c hai xu hng trong cc m hnh h thng ti chnh. Mt s
nc p dng cc quy nh tch cc ngn hng thng mai v ngn hng
u t ring bit, trong khi mt s nc cho php s kt hp ca hai loi
hnh dch v ny trong mt t chc.
CP NHT TNH HNH NGNH NGN HNG
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Page | 3
S tin phn b
250,46
245,1
20,08
19,09
Tp on AIG
67,84
67,84
79,69
79,69
Chng trnh h tr nh
38,49
8,25
456,56
419,97
Tng
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Page | 5
Ngun: Moodys
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 6
ROE
CAR
ICBC
Ngn hng
Xp hng theo vn cp 1
1
1,44%
23,02%
13,66%
0,92%
11,00%
15,30%
Bank of America
0,19%
1,79%
16,31%
HSBC
0,60%
8,40%
16,10%
1,50%
22%
14,32%
Citigroup
0,40%
4,10%
1726%
Mitsubishi UFJ
0,47%
11,37%
16,68%
Wells Fargo
1,41%
12,95%
14,63%
1,19%
18,10%
13,63%
10
116%
20,74%
12,61%
Bank of China
Agri. Bank of China
ICBC
Ngn hng ICBC c ti cu trc t ngn hng thuc s hu nh nc
thnh ngn hng thng mi c phn vo thng 10/2005. Ti thi im
, ngn hng ny c nim yt ti Sn chng khon Thng Hi v
mt nm sau, c nim yt trn Sn chng khon Hng Kng. Trong
vng nm nm qua, ICBC t c mt lot cc ch s ti chnh n
tng, th hin r s pht trin bn vng v ngun vn mnh ca
mnh.
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
1,45
1,44
1,32
1,2
1,21
23,02
23,44
22,79
20,15
19,43
2,66
2,61
2,44
2,26
2,95
29,24
29,91
30,99
33,18
29,84
0,85
0,94
1,08
1,54
2,29
13,66
13,17
12,27
12,36
13,06
20
40
60
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Page | 7
2012
Khc
1%
Thu nhp
t ph,
hoa hng
thun
20%
Khc
1%
Thu
nhp t
ph, hoa
hng
thun
14%
2008
Thu
nhp li
thun
85%
Thu nhp
li thun
79%
Trong bi cnh ton cu ha, cc cng ty Trung Quc ang gia tng nhu
cu s dng cc dch v ngn hng u t. Nhn thy cc c hi ny, t
nm 2002, ICBC tr thnh t chc ti chnh u tin Trung Quc i
lc a ra dch v ngn hng u t da trn khung ngn hng thng
mi sn c. Ngn hng ICBC tn dng li th h tr hot ng trong
nc v cc chi nhnh nc ngoi, tm kim cc c hi lm n mi v
nng cao tnh chuyn nghip. Hin nay, ICBC tr thnh mt thng
hiu quc t c mt trn gn 40 nc tri u khp su chu lc. Theo
bo co thng nin nm 2012, nh c mng li rng khp gm 17.125
chi nhnh ni a v 393 chi nhnh quc t, cc sn phm ti chnh ca
ngn hng phc v 4,38 triu khch hng doanh nghip v 393 triu
khch hng c nhn. ICBC r rng ang cnh tranh vi cc i th hng
u trong lnh vc phc v nhng khch hng cao cp trn th trng
vn ton cu.
N xu ca ngn hng ICBC t nm 2008-2012
2012
Cc nhm n
S tin
(triu
RMB)
N xu
2011
%
S tin
(triu
RMB)
74.575
0,85
N di tiu chun
29.418
0,33
2010
%
S tin
(triu
RMB)
73.011
0,94
24.092
0,31
2009
%
S tin
(triu
RMB)
73.241
1,08
18.932
0,28
2008
%
S tin
(triu
RMB)
88.467
1,54
104.482
2,29
31.842
0,56
37.694
0,82
1,22
N nghi ng
36.482
0,41
38.712
0,50
41.765
0,62
43.413
0,76
55.641
N c kh nng mt vn
8.675
0,10
10.207
0,13
12.544
0,18
13.212
0,23
11.147
0,24
Tng d n
8.803.692
100,0
7.788.897
100,0
6.790.506
100,0
5.728.626
100,0
4.571.994
100,0
Page | 8
1000
2000
3000
4000
Ngun: Tp ch Financial Times
140%
120%
Doanh thu th
100%
80%
58%
51%
50%
49%
46%
60%
40%
20%
0%
21%
8%
-16%
12%
13%
14%
10%
7%
11%
6%
10%
6%
14%
6%
6%
-20%
Qun l ti sn
Ph lin quan n cho vay v huy
ng
Giao dch y thc
-40%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Ph ngn hng u t
Ngun: Bo co thng nin ca ngn hng JPM
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Page | 9
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Page | 10
1993
Vit Nam bnh thng ha quan h tn dng vi cc t chc tn dng quc t (Qu tin t Quc t,
Ngn hng Th gii, Ngn hng pht trin chu ).
1995
Ngh quyt v vic d b thu doanh thu i vi hot ng ngn hng c Quc hi thng qua.
Ngn hng cho ngi ngho c thnh lp.
1997
Lut v Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam v Lut v cc t chc tn dng c Quc hi kha 10
thng qua vo ngy 02/12/1997 v c hiu lc t ngy 01/10/1998; Ngn hng Pht trin Nh
ng Bng Sng Cu Long c thnh lp theo quyt nh 769/TTg ban hnh ngy 18/09/1997.
1999
2000
2001
Hip nh thng mi song phng vi M c k kt. Theo hip nh ny, th trng ti chnh v
cc ngn hng ca Vit Nam s dn dn m ca i vi M, v vo nm 2010 cc t chc ti
chnh ca M c i x ngang bng vi cc t chc ti chnh ca Vit Nam. y l nn tng tt
cho s pht trin th trng ti chnh ca Vt Nam, nhng cng l mt thch thc ln cho cc t
chc ti chnh trong nc, c bit l cc ngn hng thng mi.
2002
2003
Ti c cu ton din hot ng cc ngn hng thng mi theo chun quc t; Ngn hng Chnh
sch X hi c thnh lp, thay th cho Ngn hng dnh cho ngi ngho nhm tch bch tn
dng chnh sch khi tn dng thng mi theo c ch th trng; Lut v Ngn hng Nh nc
c sa i.
2010
Quc hi Kha 12 thng qua Lut mi v Ngn hng Nh Nc Vit Nam v Lut v cc t chc
Tn dng trong phin hp th 7 ti H Ni vo ngy 16/06/2010. Hai b lut bt u c hiu lc
t ngy 01/01/2011. Theo , NHNN l mt c quan ngang b ca Chnh Ph v hot ng nh
mt ngn hng TW ca nc Cng ha X hi Ch ngha Vit Nam.
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 11
1993
1995
NHTMNN
1997
1999
NHTMCP
2001
NHLD
2005
2007
CN NHNNg
2008
2009
2013
NHNNg
Ngun: NHNN
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Page | 12
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Page | 13
60,3%
95,8%
100%
91%
77,1%
Vietinbank
BIDV
Agribank
MHB
VCB
Ngn hng
thng mi
- 12 cng ty cho
thu ti chnh
5 NHTMNN (Cp 1)
- Gn 1.100 qu
tn dng hp tc
x
34 NHTMCP (Cp 2)
- 9 NH quy m ln (ti sn > 100.000 t VND)
(TCB, ACB, MBB, EIB, STB, SCB, SHB, MSB, VPB)
- 7 NH quy m va (100.000 t VND> ti sn > 50.000 t VND)
-18 NH quy m nh (ti sn < 50.000 t VND)
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Page | 14
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Page | 15
Nm thnh lp
i tc trong nc
i tc nc ngoi
Indovina Bank
1990
CTG (50%)
1991
BIDV (50%)
Shinhanvina Bank
1994
VCB (50%)
Vinasiam Bank
1995
Agribank(34%)
2006
BIDV (50%)
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 16
Ngy
Nh u t nc ngoi
ACB
7/1/2005
8,80%
TCB
12/1/2005
HSBC
10%
VPBank
9/1/2006
OCBC Singapore
10%
TCB
1/1/2007
HSBC
10%
Ocean Bank
1/1/2007
BNP Paribas
15%
EIB
7/1/2007
15%
Habubank
10/1/2007
Deutsche bank
10%
An Bnh bank
3/1/2008
Maybank
15%
ACB
7/1/2008
6,16%
Sourthern Bank
7/1/2008
20%
VPBank
8/1/2008
OCBC Singapore
5%
Seabank
8/1/2008
15%
VIB
9/1/2010
15%
CTG
1/1/2011
10%
VCB
9/1/2011
Mizuho Bank
15%
CTG
12/1/2012
19,73%
Ngun: VPBS tng hp
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 17
CAGR
10,2%
27%
500
18,4%
17,1%
400
300
32%
200
13,8%
41%
37%
22%
40,2%
68,7%
35,5%
53,2%
100
AGR
CTG
BIDV
VCB
TCB
2008
ACB
2009
MBB
2010
EIB
2011
STB
SCB
SHB
MSB
VPB
2012
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 18
Trung Quc
2.813,50
Trung Quc
2.241
DBS Group
Singapore
288,9
Singapore
207
Maybank
Malaysia
161,4
Thi Lan
74,2
CTG
Vit Nam
24,2
Tng trng vn
Tng trng vn ch yu
din ra do thay i ca quy
nh lin quan n vn iu
l. Tnh n nay, tt c cc
ngn hng p ng c
yu cu vn iu l ti thiu
mc 3.000 t VND. CTG l
ngn hng ln nht vi s
vn iu l 32.661 t VND.
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 19
Mc vn php nh
2008
2010
NHTMNN
3.000 t VND
3.000 t VND
NHTMCP
1.000 t VND
3.000 t VND
NH lin doanh
1.000 t VND
3.000 t VND
NH nc ngoi
1.000 t VND
3.000 t VND
15 triu USD
15 triu USD
Ngun: NHNN
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 20
32.661
29.605
23.174
23.012
12.355
12.295
10.740
10.625
9.377
9.000
8.866
8.848
8.000
6.460
5.770
5.550
5.335
5.000
5.000
4.798
4.250
4.000
4.000
3.750
3.369
3.234
3.101
3.098
3.080
3.018
3.010
3.002
3.000
3.000
3.000
3.000
3.000
3.000
3.000
Ngun: Reuters
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 21
Quc gia
Gi tr c phn ha (t USD)
ICBC
Trung Quc
237,3
Trung Quc
202
DBS Group
Singapore
30,7
Singapore
25,1
Maybank
Malaysia
24,3
Thi Lan
21,5
CTG
Vit Nam
2,4
Ngun: Forbes 2012 (xut bn thng 05/2013)
Vn iu l ca h thng ti chnh nm
2012
TCTD phi
ngn hng
2%
200
180
160
140
120
2011
100
NHLD,
NHNNg
22%
NHTMNN
36%
2012
80
2013
60
NHTMCP
40%
40
20
NHTMNN
NHTMCP
NHNNg
Ngun: NHNN
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 22
Ngn hng
Vn iu l
ng k (t VND)
Ch tiu vn iu l
(t VND)
S vn s huy ng thm
(t VND)
CTG
32.661
37.234
4.573
AGRB
29.605
31.000
1.395
VCB
23.174
24.623
1.449
BIDV
23.012
28.112
5.100
EIB
12.355
13.591
1.236
SCB
12.295
13.584
1.289
ACB
9.377
12.377
3.000
TCB
8.848
8.878
30
6.460
6.647
187
Seabank
5.335
7.466
2.131
ng Bank
5.000
6.000
1.000
VIB
4.250
5.500
1.250
Southern Bank
4.000
4.500
500
Oceanbank
4.000
5.350
1.350
MHB
3.369
3.800
431
Oricombank
3.234
4.000
766
Vit Bank
3.098
3.500
402
Saigonbank
3.080
3.500
420
Nam Bank
3.002
4.000
998
Bc Bank
3.000
3.700
700
VNCB
3.000
7.500
4.500
3.000
3.600
600
Ngun: Reuters
50%
41,6%
40%
30%
20%
10%
32,4%
31,6%
28,4%
21,4%
39,6%
25,5%
22,2%
25,4%
14,4%
6,9%
7,1%
7,3%
7,8%
8,4%
8,2%
8,5%
6,3%
5,3%
6,8%
9,1%
6,0% 5,0%
0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Huy ng
2006
2007
Tn dng
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
GDP
Ngun: IFS
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 23
3500
35%
3000
30%
2500
25%
2000
20%
1500
15%
1000
10%
500
5%
10,5%
6,9%
0%
0
2008
2009
2010
Huy ng
2011
2012
Tn dng
3Q
2013
2008
2009
2010
Huy ng
2011
2012
3Q
2013
Tn dng
Ngun: IFS
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 24
140%
120%
115,4%
100%
80%
60%
40%
35,1%
20%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Ngun: WDI
Ngun: WDI
www.VPBS.com.vn
Th trng ngn hng Vit Nam va tp trung, ng thi cng phn tn.
NHTMNN thng tr c th phn huy ng ln th phn tn dng, chim ti
60% th phn vo nm 2007. Con s ny thm ch cn cao hn vo nm
2000, mc 70%. Trong khi bn NHTMNN ln u c c mt th phn
khng l, nhng NHTMCP, cc ngn hng nc ngoi v cc t chc ti
chnh khc phi tranh nhau ming bnh cn li. Tuy nhin, gn y c
mt xu th r rt l cc NHTMNN ang mt dn th phn v tay
NHTMCP c v huy ng ln tn dng. Trong nm nm gn y, NHTMCP
nm ginh c hn 15% th phn t tay NHTMNN.
Page | 25
9,2
NHTMCP
11
Khc
9,1
8,6
8,5
27,7
26,5
32,0
35,1
35,5
34,8
59,3
58,1
54,1
51,4
51,3
51,8
NHTMNN
NHTMCP
8,8
8,1
30,4
33,1
59,5
57,1
NHLD, NHNNg
Khc
7,5
6,6
7,6
7,2
40,8
46,7
47,1
47,1
49,7
45,1
43,6
43,4
Ngun: VNEconomy
Trong ba nm qua, Agribank, ACB, EIB, STB v MSB l nhng ngn hng
nh mt th phn, vi Agribank b mt th phn nhiu nht (1,91%).
CTG tr thnh ngn hng thnh cng nht vi 1,32% th phn tng thm.
Th phn ca cc ngn hng ln nht giai on
2010-2012
20%
18%
16%
AGR
15,5%
14%
12%
Khc
34,6%
10%
CTG
10,8%
8%
6%
VPB
1,2%
4%
MSB
0,9%
2%
0%
SHB
1,8%
2010
2011
2012
BIDV
11,0%
EIB
2,4%
VCB
TCB 7,8%
2,2%
STB
ACB
SCB 3,1% MBB 3,3%
2,9%
2,4%
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 26
NHTMCP
NH nc ngoi
H Ni
692
892
25
Tp. H Ch Minh
495
1.248
30
Nng
84
179
Cn Th
54
137
Khc
3.149
1.808
27
Tng cng
4.474
4.241
92
Ngun: NHNN
H Ni
1,0
1,6
47,3
3.554
3.211
12.418
2.010
2.674
6.367
420
450
1.048
Ngun: NHNN
www.VPBS.com.vn
Vit Nam
Page | 27
2000
1500
CN, PGD
1000
ATM
500
0
AGRB
CTG
BIDV
VCB
ACB
TCB
MBB
MSB
VIB
SHB
Qy 3/2012
Qy 4/2012
Qy 1/2013
Qy 2/2013
Qy 3/2013
37.708.285
38.575.094
42.115.913
43.177.468
42.783.910
44.702.698
44,702,698
Ngun:
NHNN
Th ngn hng
Tnh n thng 09/2013, Vit Nam c 63 triu th ngn hng c pht
hnh, 92% trong l th ghi n (mi ti khon ngn hng c th c
nhiu hn mt th ngn hng), v 4% l th tn dng v th tr trc. So
vi cc nc trong cng khu vc, t l s dng th ghi n v th tn dng
Vit Nam kh thp. Vi t l tng trng so vi cng k nm trc t
55%, th tn dng vn c tim nng tng trng tt nht trn th trng
th ngn hng, so vi t l tng trng 22% ca th ghi n.
Theo bo co nghin cu th trng vo thng 06/2011 ca Nielsen, ch c
42% ngi c hi c nhn thc v dch v th tn dng, v sau y l
nhng ro cn chnh nhm nhng ngi bit v th tn dng nhng
khng s dng dch v ny:
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36%
19%
07%
18%
Page | 28
Th ghi n
Th tn dng
Singapore
29%
37%
Malaysia
23%
12%
Thi Lan
43%
5%
Philippines
13%
3%
Trung Quc
41%
8%
8%
2%
Lo
6%
3%
Vit Nam
15%
1%
Ngun: Ngn hng Th gii
Ngn hng in t
Ngy trc, ngn hng ch c nhng chi nhnh t cc con ph v khch
hng phi n tn ni thc hin giao dch t 8 gi sng n trc 5 gi
chiu. V l s la chn duy nht cho khch hng. Tnh hnh thay i
k t khi internet ra i, vi nhiu li ch trc tuyn cho c ngn hng v
khch hng thng qua ngn hng in t.
Ngn hng in t gi l mt phn tt yu trong cuc sng hin i.
N thc s g ca th trng Vit Nam t hn mt thp nin trc y,
v by gi tr thnh trng tm cho k hoch pht trin di hn ca
ton h thng ngn hng trong nc v nc ngoi.
Vit Nam, ngn hng in t gip cc ngn hng a dng ha v
a ra nhng sn phm v dch v ph hp ring cho tng nhm khch
hng. Dch v ngn hng in t c tip cn d dng v sn sng s
dng qua nhiu knh khc nhau: ngn hng trc tuyn, ngn hng ti
nh, ngn hng qua di ng, trung tm chm sc khch hng qua in
thoi, ki-t ngn hng, my ATM, v my POS. Ngn hng in t phc
v cc tnh nng nh kim tra thng tin, chuyn khon, thanh ton, ng
k, t vn v mt s dch v ngn hng khc. Cc ngn hng thng mi
tht cht mi quan h i tc vi cc cng ty bo him, cng ty chng
khon v cc cng ty ti chnh khc gii thiu nhng dch v ph hp
cho tng nhm khch hng khc nhau lin quan n ngn hng, bo
him, chng khon, u t, v.v.
Ngn hng in t cn gip ngn hng tng doanh thu v gim chi ph. C
th ni ngn hng in t ging nh i mua sm siu th, khc hng c
th t to giao dch v kt ni vi h thng ngn hng m khng cn nh
n ngn vin ngn hng sut 24 gi trong c by ngy trong tun. Nh
, ngn hng c th gim bt chi ph m cc vn phng giao dch, chi
nhnh. Chi ph m cc chi nhnh kh l cao. V c th mt t hai n
ba nm cc chi nhnh ny c th to ra li nhun b p nhng
u t ban u. Hn na, cc chi nhnh ngn hng cn pht sinh thm chi
ph nhn lc. Mt im cng thm cho ngn hng in t chnh l s minh
bch v chnh xc m n mang li trong mi giao dch, do thu ht
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Page | 29
1,07
0,54
0,27
0,015
Ngun: Stegman
T l thm nhp th trng ngn hng Vit Nam l 30% khu vc thnh
th, trong khi khu vc nng thn ch c 17%.
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 30
T l ngi trng thnh c ti khon mt t chc tn dng chnh thng Vit Nam (%)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Nhn chung, t l thm nhp th trng thp khin cho th trng ngn
hng Vit Nam rt hp dn v di hn.
MI TRNG HOT NG
Tnh hnh v m
Hot ng ca cc ngn hng thng mi b nh hng nhiu bi mi
trng v m v cch NHNN iu hnh cc chnh sch tin t. y,
chng ti im li nhng im ni bt ca tng trng GDP v ch s gi
tiu dng (CPI) t nm 2008 n gn y v mt s thay i quan trng
trong quy nh v c ch ca NHNN trong qun l chnh sch tin t.
Tng trng GDP v CPI
Tng trng GDP so vi cng k nm trc
12%
8%
10%
6,78%
7%
6%
6,31%
5%
5,96%
8%
5,14%
5,32%
6%
5,03%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
0%
3Q
2013
Nng nghip
Sn xut
3Q 2013
2012
2012
2011
2011
2010
2010
2009
2009
0%
2008
2008
2007
1%
Nm 2008, kinh t th gii tri qua cuc khng hong ti chnh ti t nht
k t cuc i Suy thoi nm 1929. Nn kinh t Vit Nam cng b nh
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 31
hng nng n bi cuc khng hong kinh t ton cu, vi tng trng
GDP chm li ch cn 5,66% nm 2008. Mc d gim thm xung mc
5,40% vo nm 2009, nn kinh t Vit Nam vn l nn kinh t phc hi
tt nht trong khu vc. Nn kinh t Vit Nam mnh ln v tip tc to
n tng so vi cc nc chu trong nm 2010, vi t l tng trng
GDP t 6,42% so vi cng k nm trc. Tuy nhin, nn kinh t sau
tng trng chm li mc 6,24% nm 2011 v 5,25% nm
2012, nh du t l tng trng thp nhp k t nm 1999. GDP ca
Vit Nam trong nm ti chnh 2013 d kin tng 5,42%.
Nm 2008, cuc khng hong gi lng thc v gi du ton cu gy ra
lm pht cao Vit Nam mc 19,89% so vi cng k nm trc. Ch s
CPI gim xung ng k t Qu 2/2009 n cui nm 2009, kt thc nm
mc 6,52% so vi cng k nm trc. Ch s ny li bt u xu hng
i ln t u nm 2010 khi n t nh mc 23,02% vo thng
08/2011, mt phn do chnh sch ni rng tin t c thc hin vo nm
2009 v na u nm 2010. Ch s ny sau quay u gim xung
ch cn 6,9% vo thng 06/2012. Ch s CPI hng thng k t thng su
nm ngoi ti nay dao ng mc 5% n 7,5%.
Tng trng CPI giai on 2008-2013 (%)
30
25
20
15
10
-1
CPI MOM
CPI YOY
Trc tnh hnh lm pht mc cao nm 2008, NHNN thc hin chnh
sch tin t tht cht trong su thng u nm. Li sut c bn tng dn
t 8,75% vo thng mt ln 14% vo thng by. Li sut chit khu v
li sut ti cp vn cng t nh ln lt mc 15% v 13%. H qu l
li sut huy ng t nh mc 20% v li sut cho vay chm ti 2425%, mc cao nht trong nm nm gn y.
Tuy nhin, vic tht cht tin t khng th ko di trc nguy c kinh t
suy thoi do chu nh hng t cuc khng hong kinh t v ti chnh
ton cu. T thng 09/2008, NHNN thc hin chnh sch tin t linh
hot hn bao gm vic ct gim li sut hot ng. Li sut c bn, li
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Page | 32
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
0
01/08
01/09
01/10
LS c bn
01/11
01/12
01/13
LS ti chit khu
0
06/09
06/10
06/11
Qua m
06/12
06/13
1 thng
LS ti cp vn
Ngun: NHNN
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 33
600
100
400
09/13
06/13
03/13
12/12
09/12
06/12
03/12
12/11
09/11
06/11
03/11
09/13
06/13
03/13
12/12
09/12
06/12
03/12
12/11
09/11
06/11
03/11
12/10
-400
09/10
-200
12/10
-100
09/10
200
-200
-300
-600
-400
-800
-1,000
-1,200
Bn trn th trng m
-500
Mua trn th trng m
-600
Ngun: NHNN
Chnh sch tin t tht cht gip t l lm pht gim xung. Tuy
nhin, chnh sch ny cng lm t l tng trng GDP gim xung
cn 6,24% trong nm 2011 v 5,25% trong nm 2012. S thay i
trong mi trng li sut v tht cht vic cho vay trong lnh vc bt
ng sn nh hng xu n th trng. T l tng trng ngnh xy
dng gim t 10,06% xung m 0,97% trong nm .
lm pht b km li trong na u nm 2012 gip NHNN t tin
trong vic gim li sut. Lm pht nm 2012 gim xung ch cn
6,81%. K t thng 3 nm 2012, NHNN bt u dn dn h li sut
chit khu v li sut ti cp vn t 13% v 15% xung cn tng ng
7% v 9% vo thng 12 nm 2012.
Tn dng tng trng chm k t nm 2012 khin li sut lin ngn
hng v li sut OMO gim xung. Trung bnh, li sut qua m v li
sut lin ngn hng k hn mt thng trong na cui nm 2012 gim
xung ln lt cn 3,051% v 5,661%. Vo gia nm 2013, li sut qua
m lin ngn hng gim xung mc thp nht cn t 0,7% n 1%,
v li sut k hn mt thng lin ngn hng c lc gim xung ch
cn 2%. Trn th trng OMO, sau hn chn thng dao ng mc 14%,
li sut trng thu gim xung ch cn 5,5% vo thng 7 nm 2013
v c duy tr ti mc ny cho n hin ti.
Gn y, Vit Nam thnh cng trong vic gi ch s CPI tng nh
trong mc t 6% n 7%. Trong nm 2013, ch s CPI tng 6,6% so
vi cng k nm trc, mc thp nhp trong vng 10 nm. Li sut chit
khu v li sut ti cp vn c gi n nh trong hn 7 thng k t
thng 5 nm 2013. Trong nm nay, khi lng giao dch trn th trng
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 34
2012
2011
14,6%
19,5%
12,36%
17,5%
15,84
%
20%
Ngun: NHNN
T gi VND/USD
21,500
21,000
20,500
20,000
19,500
19,000
18,500
Ngun: NHNN
Vng
Gn y, chnh ph thc hin nhng quy nh cht ch kim sot th
trng vng. Vi vic ban hnh Ngh nh 24/2012/ND-CP, Thng t
16/2012/TT-NHNN, v Thng t 06/2013/TT-NHNN, th trng vng v c
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 35
Ni dung
Lut 46/2010/QH12
Lut 47/2010/QH12
Ngh nh 59/2009/N-CP
Ngh nh 22/2006/N-CP
Ngh nh 05/2010/N-CP
Quyt nh 254/Q-TTg
Ngh nh 141-2006-N-CP
Ngh nh 69/2007/N-CP
Thng t 13/2010/TT-NHNN
Quyt nh 493/2005/Q-NHNN
Quyt nh 780/Q-NHNN
Thng t 02/2013/TT-NHNN
Ngh nh 53/2013/N-CP
Thng t 19/2013/TT-NHNN
Thng t 20 /2013/TT-NHNN
Thng t 14/2013/TT-NHNN
Thng t 15/2013/TT-NHNN
Quyt nh 750/Q-NHNN
Thng t 08/2010/TT-NHNN
Ngh nh 109/2005/N-CP
Quyt nh 27/2008/Q-NHNN
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 36
Nhm n
N tiu chun
N cn ch
N di tiu chun
N nghi ng
N c kh nng mt vn
T l d phng
0%
5%
20%
50%
100%
Ngun: NHNN
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 37
CTG
TCB
Oceanbank
Sea Bank
VCB
Sourthern Bank
ABB
VIB
EIB
10
VPB
Ngun: VPBS tng hp
6%
NHTMCP
4%
NHLD, NHNNg
2%
0%
2012
Q3/2013
ROA
2012
Q3/2013
ROE
Ngun:NHNN
Page | 38
ROA
ROE
3%
35%
3%
30%
2%
2008
2%
2009
1%
2010
1%
2011
2008
20%
2009
15%
2010
10%
2011
5%
2012
0%
25%
2012
0%
T sut li nhun
2011 thun2012
10,6%
11,2%
0,14
BIDV
6,6%
7,6%
0,13
VCB
11,0%
11,9%
0,11
ACB
11,9%
3,6%
0,11
STB
21,2%
24,5%
0,13
MBB
14,9%
13,7%
0,12
EIB
16,3%
12,0%
0,12
SHB
9,2%
0,2%
0,13
H s nhn vn
ROE
2012
0,11
0,11
0,08
2011
2012
2011
2012
17,7
15,5
26,7%
19,8%
15,9
17,5
13,2%
10,1%
0,08
0,09
0,09
13,7
11,1
17,0%
12,5%
20,8
18,6
27,5%
6,4%
0,09
0,12
0,12
0,11
10,3
10,4
29,4%
31,2%
13,4
14,0
23,0%
20,5%
0,11
0,10
0,10
0,12
10,6
11,0
20,4%
13,3%
12,2
12,2
15,0%
0,3%
15,1
14,0
28,8%
5,9%
14,4
13,8
22,3%
13,3%
3,41
2,93
6%
9%
TCB
14,4%
4,0%
0,13
Trung bnh
12,9%
9,9%
0,13
0,12
0,11
0,11
0,10
lch
4,32%
7,15%
0,01
0,01
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 39
Vit Nam
14%
33%
60%
Trung Quc
21%
40%
Singapore
40%
Thi Lan
36%
100%
80%
20%
0%
-20%
Ngun: KPMG
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 40
30%
100%
25%
80%
60%
20%
40%
15%
20%
0%
10%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
5%
Doanh thu t ph
0%
2009
2010
2011
2012
Ngun: Bo co ti chnh ngn hng, VPBS tng hp
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 41
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2011
Western Bank
PG Bank
Nam A Bank
Navibank
Saigon Bank
OCB
Dai A Bank
MHB
MDB
Ocean Bank
PNB
VIB
An Binh Bank
VPB
Seabank
LienVietPostBank
TCB
MSB
SHB
ACB
SCB
MBB
EIB
STB
BIDV
VCB
CTG
-2%
Agribank
0%
Dong A Bank
2%
2012
Ngun: KPMG
2009
2010
2011
2012
CTG
4,13%
2,13%
4,14%
5,07%
4,02%
2013E
3,83%
BIDV
2,91%
2,69%
2,89%
3,41%
2,16%
2,75%
VCB
3,31%
2,89%
3,08%
3,85%
2,90%
2,49%
ACB
3,42%
2,57%
2,73%
3,41%
3,72%
3,00%
STB
2,08%
3,26%
3,59%
4,74%
5,29%
5,13%
MBB
4,27%
3,51%
4,34%
4,66%
4,54%
3,81%
EIB
3,70%
4,06%
3,35%
3,73%
3,12%
2,14%
SHB
1,46%
3,50%
3,46%
3,50%
2,26%
2,05%
TCB
3,84%
3,59%
2,93%
3,62%
3,28%
2,96%
Trung bnh
3,23%
3,13%
3,39%
4,00%
3,48%
3,13%
www.VPBS.com.vn
Chi ph vn nm 2012
2010
2011
2012
BIDV
7,80
5,80
6,84
9,06
5,20
VCB
5,67
4,12
4,87
7,05
6,29
EIB
MBB
7,08
4,52
6,72
7,89
6,47
ACB
CTG
8,50
2,82
7,36
9,85
7,52
TCB
CTG
TCB
10,28
6,50
7,00
9,72
7,70
ACB
9,35
6,04
6,80
9,03
7,82
EIB
9,90
5,57
5,63
9,40
8,40
STB
10,46
6,42
7,18
9,95
8,76
SHB
10,43
5,60
7,14
10,67
9,59
SHB
STB
MBB
VCB
BIDV
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 43
100%
90%
20%
14%
Tin gi ti NHNN
80%
Tin gi ti v cho vay cc TCTD
khc
70%
60%
50%
53%
57%
40%
30%
Gp vn v u t di hn
20%
13%
14%
Ti sn c nh
10%
Cc ti sn khc
0%
2011
2012
Ngun: KPMG
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 44
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Na u 2013
CTG
37.551.913
27.939.579
33.350.818
38.528.334
46.722.304
48.587.514
BIDV
27.293.537
21.894.862
19.086.705
25.065.360
40.533.598
56.021.385
VCB
22.433.043
13.420.652
10.540.235
13.331.455
62.453.801
49.664.339*
ACB
12.082.303
13.653.321
9.650.085
9.332.918
14.530.536
19.059.691
STB
1.726.228
2.135.629
4.046.212
7.180.072
11.167.819
13.769.339
MBB
6.495.633
5.714.941
8.293.881
10.519.788
36.501.268
40.758.494
EIB
4.482.626
2.929.823
2.277.461
1.641.085
2.289.675
1.453.000
475.340
1.040.500
1.350.000
1.950.000
5.816.933
6.475.811
SHB
TCB
Tng gi tr
T l tng
trng
2.105.212
6.704.716
8.270.717
15.253.214
7.897.076
10.848.266
114.645.835
95.434.023
96.866.114
122.802.226
227.913.010
204.776.713
-16,76%
1,50%
26,78%
85,59%
-10,15%
Ngun: Bo co ti chnh cc ngn hng, VPBS tng hp
Ghi ch: *VPBS c tnh
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 45
100%
80%
60%
36,6%
38,9%
42,2%
44,5%
48,6%
40%
20%
35,1%
33,2%
29,5%
26,9%
2007
2008
2009
2010
0%
40,8%
17,2%
18,0%
2011
2012
2011
9,6%
8,8%
24,9%
10,5%
28,0%
28,1%
29,3%
29,9%
5,6%
21,7%
Thng 9/2013
4,3%
9,0%
19,5%
29,0%
4,0%
9,3%
18,8%
9,5%
Ngun: NHNN
Page | 46
100%
90%
Cc khon n khc
80%
Pht hnh giy t c gi
70%
60%
50%
59%
70%
40%
Vn ti tr t chnh ph, t
chc nc ngoi v cc
TCTD khc
Tin gi ca khch hng
30%
20%
19%
15%
10%
0%
2011
2012
Ngun: KPMG
RI RO V NHNG VN KHC
Ri ro thanh khon
Nm 2011 din ra cuc
khng hong thanh khon do
s bt cn xng k hn v
quy nh ca NHNN v trn
li sut huy ng.
Thanh khon ca cc ngn
hng c ci thin v
by gi ang thc s "d
tha".
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 47
ng. Bi vy, r rng ton b h thng ngn hng phi s dng khong
25% ngun vn ngn hn cho cc khon vay trung v di hn. Mc d c
s khng cn xng v k hn, n dng nh khng qu t v mt phn
cc khon huy ng ngn hn thng c ti gia hn.
Phn loi Khon vay theo k hn - 2011
Khng
k hn
16%
Di hn
27%
Trung
hn
14%
Ngn
hn
59%
Tin gi
n hn
2%
Tin gi
nhu cu
c bit
1%
Ngn
hn
65%
Ngun: StoxPlus
Nhng l do no khc c th gii thch cho cuc khng hong thanh khon
nm 2011? Vo thng ba v thng chn nm 2011, NHNN ban hnh Thng
t 02 v Thng t 30 quy nh trn li sut cho tt c khon tin gi c k
hn v khng k hn. Nhng quy nh ny loi b mt cch hiu qu
s cnh tranh gia cc ngn hng trong vic huy ng vn, t cc
NHTMCP nh trong tnh trng khng an ton. cng mt mc li sut
ging nhau, cc khon tin gi chy t cc ngn hng nh v cc ngn
hng ln, ni c coi l an ton hn. Cc NHTMCP nh gp nhiu kh
khn thu ht tin gi v phi da vo th trng lin ngn hng
m bo thanh khon trong khi cc NHTMCP ln v NHTMNN hng li ln
t mc li sut lin ngn hng tng cao. Bi vy, cuc khng hong thanh
khon ch yu xy ra cc NHTMCP nh ch khng phi ton b h
thng.
Quy nh
Thng t
02/2011/TTNHNN
Thng t
30/2011/TTNHNN
Ngy
3/3/2011
1/10/2011
K hn
VND
Tt c cc k hn
14%
6%
K hn ln hn mt thng
14%
Ngun: NHNN
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 48
NHTMNN
22,28
21,45
NHTMCP
18,39
17,60
NH nc ngoi
-3,66
-2,03
Ngun: NHNN
Cc khon cho vay (t s) bao gm: cho vay khch hng v tri
phiu cng ty, chng ti loi tr cc khon vay t th trng lin
ngn hng v cc ti sn ngoi bng.
Cc khon huy ng (mu s) bao gm: tin gi ca khch hng
v cc giy t c gi.
2008
80%
2009
60%
2010
40%
2011
2012
20%
0%
CTG
VCB
TCB
ACB
MBB
EIB
STB
SHB
Chng ti nhn thy CTG duy tr t l cho vay trn huy ng cao nht,
theo sau l EIB. c bit, CTG c t l cho vay trn huy ng cao hn
100% trong sut nm nm qua.
Da trn t l ti sn c tnh thanh khon cao trn tng ti sn, ACB,
STB, SHB, v BIDV c tnh thanh khon kh thp, trong khi MBB c t l
thanh khon cao nht.
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 49
2009
2010
2011
2012
1H2013
CTG
35,11%
29,08%
32,80%
32,38%
29,02%
31,41%
BIDV
31,63%
27,39%
27,71%
24,93%
26,21%
26,25%
VCB
47,86%
42,96%
40,94%
41,25%
40,08%
44,11%
ACB
57,23%
46,46%
47,26%
43,41%
34,00%
27,63%
STB
41,02%
35,86%
40,23%
34,64%
28,35%
24,51%
MBB
73,47%
80,85%
77,55%
77,35%
70,29%
66,42%
EIB
51,62%
37,33%
46,35%
54,68%
49,80%
41,41%
SHB
39,40%
44,77%
41,56%
48,49%
39,55%
30,36%
TCB
50,77%
48,60%
56,68%
56,17%
49,37%
46,38%
Ngun: Bo co ti chnh ngn hng, VPBS tng hp
Ri ro li sut
Li sut cho vay v huy
ng, cng nh chnh lch
li sut tri qua nhiu
bin ng bt li.
Din bin li sut Vit Nam k t nm 2004 tri qua nhiu thay i,
c bit l giai on t 2007 n 2010. Li sut cho vay v huy ng
trung bnh hng nm t mc thp, ln lt mc 6,2% v 9,7% nm
2004, ln cao ti 14% v 17% tng ng nm 2011. Li sut cho vay
v huy ng khng phi lun lun di chuyn song song, khin cho li
nhun bin trung bnh (li sut cho vay - li sut huy ng) dao ng t
1,9% nm 2010 n 3,9% nm 2005. Biu theo thng cn thy s ln
xung thm ch cn bt li hn. Li sut cho vay v mc li bin rng
chm ngng cao nht vo thng 03/2005, ln lt mc 22% v 10%.
Nhng n na cui nm 2008, cc ngn hng nng li sut huy ng
ln nhm thu ht tin gi. Li bin c thu hp li thp mc k lc, ch
cn khong 1-2%. Vi n lc ca chnh ph nhm bnh n kinh t bng
cch iu chnh li sut, quy nh trn li sut huy ng, li sut ti cp
vn, li sut chit khu, v.v., din bin li sut dng nh n nh hn
v mc li bin n nh dn k t 2011. Trong nm 2013, do tng
trng tn dng kh chm, t sut ny i xung v xu hng ny c
kh nng tip tc n t nht su thng u nm 2014.
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Page | 50
17,0%
15,8%
11,0%
9,7%
7,1%
6,2%
3,6%
2004
3,9%
2005
11,2%
11,2%
7,6%
13,5%
13,1%
14,0%
10,1%
7,5%
3,5%
2006
12,7%
10,5%
11,2%
7,9%
3,7%
2007
3,1%
2008
2,2%
2009
3,0%
1,9%
2010
2011
3,0%
2012
Ngun: WDI
09/2011
11/2011
01/2012
03/2012
05/2012
07/2012
09/2010
11/2010
01/2011
03/2011
05/2011
07/2011
09/2009
11/2009
01/2010
03/2010
05/2010
07/2010
09/2008
11/2008
01/2009
03/2009
05/2009
07/2009
03/2008
05/2008
07/2008
0%
Ri ro tn dng v n xu
Mc n xu c bo co mp m
T l n xu cc ngn hng
bo co thp hn rt nhiu
so vi c tnh ca NHNN v
cc t chc xp hng tn
dng c lp. Cho ti khi
Thng t 02 c p dng
(01/06/2014), vic tnh ton
con s chnh xc ca t l
NPL l rt kh khn.
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C cu N
100%
80%
60%
9%
40%
6%
3%
20%
0%
0%
Page | 52
5%
4,55%
5%
4,08%
4%
4%
3%
3,5%
Khc
15%
2,6%
3%
2%
3,40%
3,2%
3%
2,9%
NHNNg
5%
2%
2%
1%
2,2%
NHTM
CP
26%
NHTM
NN 54%
1%
0%
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Page | 53
12,000
10%
9%
10,000
8%
7%
8,000
6%
6,000
5%
4%
4,000
N xu
T l n xu
3%
2%
2,000
1%
--
0%
CTG
BIDV
VCB
ACB
STB
MBB
EIB
SHB
TCB
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Page | 54
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Page | 55
S hu cho
S hu cho ang lm xu i
s minh bch v hiu qu
ca cc ngn hng.
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Page | 56
Ngun: Cafef
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Page | 58
i tc
SCB
SCB
Ficombank
SCB
STT
Thi im
1/1/ 2012
SCB
1/1/ 2012
TinnghiaBank
SCB
Tienphong Bank
DOJI
Tienphong Bank
18/1/ 2012
Habubank
SHB
28/8 2012
GP Bank
Navibank
SHB
D kin bn c phn
cho ngn hng United
Overseas Bank (UOB)
Ti cu trc bng vn t
c
Navibank
TrustBank
Western Bank
PVFC
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1/1/ 2012
Page | 59
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Page | 62
Gi tr vn ha (VND t)
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
ROA
ROE
N xu
ACB
14.468
15,27
1,12
CTG
62.181
7,76
1,09
0,51%
7,43%
3,34%
1,38%
16,12%
VCB
62.802
15,24
2,47%
1,50
0,95%
9,84%
2,98%
STB
19.537
EIB
15.691
24,02
1,18
0,52%
5,12%
2,25%
13,26
1,07
0,76%
7,87%
MBB
1,80%
14.070
5,20
1,04
1,35%
14,98%
2,56%
SHB
6.203
3,89
0,60
1,41%
16,88%
7,75%
NVB
2.113
NA
0,78
-0,50%
-3,53%
8,78%
Trung bnh
24.633
12,09
1,05
0,80%
9,34%
3,99%
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Page | 63
Khuyn co
Bo co phn tch c lp v pht hnh bi Cng ty TNHH Chng khon Ngn hng TMCP Vit
Nam Thnh Vng (VPBS). Bo co ny khng trc tip hoc ng dng phn phi, pht
hnh hay s dng cho bt k c nhn hay t chc no l cng dn hay thng tr hoc tm tr ti
bt k a phng, lnh th, quc gia hoc n v c ch quyn no khc m vic phn phi, pht
hnh hay s dng tri vi quy nh ca php lut. Bo co ny khng nhm pht hnh rng ri
ra cng chng v ch mang tnh cht cung cp thng tin cho nh u t cng nh khng c
php sao chp hoc phn phi li cho bt k bn th ba no khc. Tt c nhng c nhn, t chc
nm gi bo co ny u phi tun th nhng iu trn.
Mi quan im v khuyn ngh v bt k hay ton b m chng khon hay t chc pht hnh l
i tng cp trong bn bo co ny u phn nh chnh xc kin c nhn ca nhng chuyn
gia phn tch tham gia vo qu trnh chun b v lp bo co, theo , lng v thng ca nhng
chuyn gia phn tch , ang v s khng lin quan trc tip hay gin tip i vi nhng quan
im hoc khuyn ngh c a ra bi cc chuyn gia phn tch trong bo co ny. Cc
chuyn gia phn tch tham gia vo vic chun b v lp bo co khng c quyn i din (thc t,
ng hay cng khai) cho bt k t chc pht hnh no c cp trong bn bo co.
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