TRNG AI HOC Y KHOA PHAM NGOC THACH

D AN U-PNT-03

PHNG PHAP
NGHIEN CU KHOA HOC
(LP C BAN 3)

PHN THNG K Y HC 1

Thang 3/2010

Bai 1

KHAI NIEM ve THONG KE Y HOC va

CACH SAP XEP & TO CHC SO LIEU
ThS. BS. Nguyen The Dung

MUC TIEU: Sau khi hoc xong bai nay, hoc vien co the:

1/ Phan biet ung cac loai bien so thng dung trong thong ke y hoc
2/ Phan biet c cac thang o lng dung trong thong ke y hoc
3/ Biet cach thiet lap cac bang phan phoi tan so, tan so tng oi, tan so don, tan

so tng oi don
4/ Phat bieu ung y ngha cua so lieu trong cac bang phan phoi tan so, tan so
tng oi, tan so don, tan so tng oi don
I. MOT SO KHAI NIEM C BAN :
Thong ke hoc (Statistics): la mon hoc ve cach :
1
thu thap, to chc, tom tat va phan tch so lieu
2
rut ra nhng suy dien cho toan bo (so lieu) t ket qua khao sat 1 phan
cua so lieu.
Thong ke sinh hoc (Biostatistics): la thong ke hoc co so lieu phan tch co
nguon goc sinh hoac y hoc.
Bien so (Variable): la ac tnh co the mang nhieu gia tr khac nhau ngi,
ni chon, vat khac nhau.
Bien so nh lng (Quantitative variable): la bien so co the o ac c
bang cac phep o lng thong thng. So o thc hien tren cac bien so
nh lng chuyen tai thong tin ve so (khoi) lng.
Bien so nh tnh (Qualitative variable) : la bien so khong the c o
bang nhng phep o lng thong thng, ma ch co the c nhom loai
(categorized). So o thc hien tren cac bien so nh tnh chuyen tai thong
tin ve thuoc tnh.
Bien so ngau nhien (Random variable): la bien so ma cac gia tr co c
la ket qua cua cac yeu to mang tnh c hoi (chance factors) khong the
tien oan chnh xac trc c. Cac gia tr co c qua cac phng phap
o lng c goi la cac quan sat (observations) hoac so o easurements)
Bien so ngau nhien ri (Discrete random variable): la bien so ac trng bi
cac khoang trong gia cac gia tr.
Bien so ngau nhien lien tuc (Continous random variable): la bien so khong co cac
khoang trong gia cac gia tr.
DAN SO (Quan the Population): la tap hp ln nhat cac thc the ma ta quan tam
1 thi iem xac nh.
1

Neu o mot bien so tren tng thc the cua dan so, chung ta se co 1 dan so cac gia
tr cua bien so o. Dan so cac gia tr la tap hp ln nhat cac gia tr cua 1 bien so ngau
nhien ma ta quan tam 1 thi iem xac nh.
MAU (Sample): la 1 phan (bo phan) cua 1 dan so.
II. S O LNG va THANG O LNG (Measurement & Measurement
Scale)
S o lng c nh ngha la s gan con so cho cac vat the hoac bien co theo 1 he
thong qui tac. Do viec o lng c thc hien vi nhieu he thong qui tac khac nhau nen
phai co nhieu thang o lng khac nhau.
1. Thang nh danh (Nominal Scale): la thang o lng ( mc o) thap nhat va ch
bao gom viec at ten cho cac quan sat hoac phan loai chung vao cac nhom oc lap
ho tng (mutually exclusive). Th du: cac chan oan y khoa (benh cao huyet ap,
benh noi tiet, v.v.), cac thc the nh phan nh nam-n, benh-khoe, v..v
2. Thang th t (Ordinal Scale): la thang o lng bao gom khong ch viec nh
danh ma con phan hang (rank) cac nhom loai theo 1 so tieu chuan nao o. Th du:
benh (rat nang, nang, va, nhe), tnh trang kinh te (cao, va, kem), v..v..
Lu y la mc o khac biet gia cac 2 so o thuoc 2 nhom loai a phan hang
khong c biet la bang bao nhieu.
3. Thang khoang (Interval Scale): tinh vi hn thang th t cho khoang cach gia
hai so o bat ky c biet ro. Th du: hieu cua so o 20 va 30 bang vi hieu cua so o
30 va 40. Thang khoang dung 1 n v ve khoang cach va mot iem zero c chon
tuy y. Tuy nhien iem zero trong trng hp nay khong phai la zero that s (ch th s
hoan toan khong co khoi lng ang c o). Th du ro nhat ve thang khoang la cach
o nhiet o, trong o 00 C khong ong ngha vi viec hoan toan khong co nhiet lng
nao.Thang khoang la mot thang nh lng.
4. Thang T so (Ratio Scale): la thang o lng mc o cao nhat, ac trng bi s
bang nhau cua cac t so cung nh cua cac khoang co the c nh ro. iem c ban
cua thang t so la co iem zero that. Th du: chieu cao, can nang, chieu dai,v.v.
III. CHUOI THONG KE (Ordered array) :
la danh muc cac gia tr cua 1 tap hp so lieu xep theo th t t gia tr nho en gia tr
ln.

IV. PHAN PHOI TAN SO (quency Distribution)

1. Phan nhom so lieu: so lieu co the c to chc, sap xep bang cach phan
vao nhieu nhom (Khoang cach lp KCL).
Cach tnh so KCL
So KCL cua 1 tap hp so lieu thng khong nen nho hn 6 va khong ln
hn 15. e chnh xac hn, co the dung cong thc Sturges e tnh so KCL :

k =

1 + 3,322 (log10 n)

vi k : so KCL

&

n : so gia tr co c

Th du: co tap hp so lieu gom 57 gia tr, nen phan vao bao nhieu KCL th va?
n = 57 log10 57 = 1,7559
k =

1 + 3,322 (1,7559)

Cach tnh o rong cua KCL

w =

R
k

w : o rong cua KCL

vi

R:

bien o cua chuoi so lieu

Th du: co tap hp so lieu gom 57 gia tr, gia tr ln nhat la 79 va gia tr nho
nhat la 12. Tnh o rong cua cac KCL?

79 12
= 9, 6 10
7
Tap hp 57 gia tr la can nang tnh bang ounces cua 57 khoi u ac tnh lay ra t bung
cua 57 benh nhan :
w

68
24
28
31
49

63
25
25
50
28

42
44
45
38
23

27
65
12
21
19

30
43
57
16
46

36
25
51
24
30

28
74
12
69
43

32
51
32
47
49

79
36
49
23
12

27
42
38
22

22
28
42
43

23
31
27
27

2. Lap bang phan phoi tan so

KCL
10
20
30
40
50
60
70

Tan so
19
29
39
49
59
69
79

5
19
10
13
4
4
2
57

3. Lap bang phan phoi tan so, tan so don, tan so tng oi, tan so tng oi don

KCL

10
20
30
40
50
60
70

Tan so

19
29
39
49
59
69
79

5
19
10
13
4
4
2
57

Tan so don

5
24
34
47
51
55
57

Tan so
tng oi
0,0877
0,3333
0,1754
0,2281
0,0702
0,0702
0,0351

Tan so
tng oi don
0,0877
0,4210
0,5964
0,8245
0,8947
0,9649
1,0000

1,0000

Lu y: Tuy theo nhu cau ma chon cot (tan so, tan so tng oi, tan so don, tan so tng
oi don) e trnh bay. Thong thng nhat la trnh bay tan so va tan so tng oi (tnh
bang %) trong cung 1 bang.
4. Lap bieu o Histogram
Histogram la bieu o phan phoi tan so hnh que (cot) ac biet cua cac bien so lien
tuc. Do la bieu o la cua bien so lien tuc nen khi trnh bay can phai dung cac gii han
that cua cac KCL. Tm gii han that cua 1 KCL bang cach tr i n v oi vi gii han
di va cong them n v oi vi gii han tren.

Bang phan phoi tan so dung gii han that (e ve histogram)

Gii han that
cua KCL

Tan so

9,5 19,5
19,5 29,5
29,5 39,5
39,5 49,5
49,5 59,5
59,5 69,5
69,5 79,5

5
19
10
13
4
4
2
Tan so

20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
9,5

19,5 29,5 39,5

49,5 59,5

69,5

79,5

5. Lap bieu o a giac tan so

Bieu o a giac tan so c thiet lap da tren histogram. Bang cach noi trung iem
cua cac mat tren cua tng o ch nhat tng trng cho tan so cua cac KCL, ta se co 1
a giac tan so.
Tan o

20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
9,5

29,5 39,5 49,5 59,5 69,5

19,5http://www.ebook.edu.vn

79,5

6.

Lap bieu o thanvala (Stem-and-leaf)

Than
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

La
2
2
1 2
0
0
2
2
0 1
3 5
4 9

6
2
1
2
1
8

9
3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8
1 2 2 6 6 8 8
3 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 9 9
7
9

----------------------------------------------------------

Bai 2

TOM TAT SO LIEU

MUC TIEU: Sau khi hoc xong bai nay, hoc vien co the:

1/ Biet cach tnh cac so o khuynh hng tap trung va phat bieu ung y ngha cua cac so
o nay
2/ Biet cach tnh cac so o khuynh hng phan tan va phat bieu ung y ngha cua cac so
o nay
3/ Biet cach thiet lap cac bieu trnh bay cac so o khuynh hng tap trung va phan

tan
I. GII THIEU :

So o mo ta (descriptive measure) la phng tien tom tat so lieu (TTSL).

So o mo ta tnh c t so lieu cua 1 mau c goi la so thong ke (statistic)
So o mo ta tnh c t so lieu cua 1 dan so c goi la thong so (parameter)
II. SO O KHUYNH HNG TAP TRUNG (Measures of Central Tendency) :
So o khuynh hng tap trung chuyen tai thong tin ve gia tr trung bnh (average
value) cua mot tap hp so lieu. Ba so o khuynh hng tap trung thng dung nhat la: so
troi so trung v , va so trung bnh.
1. So troi (Mode) :
So troi cua mot tap hp gia tr la gia tr xuat hien nhieu lan nhat. Mot tap hp
gia tr co the khong co so troi nao, hoac co nhieu hn 1 so troi.
ac iem cua so troi
So troi co the c s dung e mo ta so lieu nh tnh.
2. So trung v (Median)
So trung v cua mot tap hp so lieu la gia tr ng gia 2 phan bang nhau cua
tap hp (so gia tr bang hoac ln hn so trung v bang vi so gia tr bang hoac
nho hn so trung v).
Neu so gia tr la mot so le, so trung v se la gia tr ng ngay gia chuoi thong
ke. Neu so gia tr la mot so chan, so trung v se bang so trung bnh cua 2 gia tr
ng ngay gia chuoi thong ke.
ac iem cua so trung v:
oc nhat (oi vi moi tap hp so lieu ch co 1 so trung v)
n gian (de hieu va de tnh toan)
Gia tr cc (extreme values) khong gay anh hng nhieu en so trung v.
7

3. So trung bnh toan hoc (Arithmatic Mean) :

Trung bnh (cua) dan so (Population Mean) :
N

i =1

N: so gia tr cua dan so

Trung bnh (cua) mau (Sample Mean) :

n

i =1

n: so gia tr cua mau

ac iem cua so trung bnh:

oc nhat (oi vi moi tap hp so lieu ch co 1 so trung bnh)
n gian (de hieu va de tnh toan)
Gia tr cc (extreme values) gay anh hng nhieu en so trung bnh.
So trung bnh gia trong (Weighted mean)
La so trung bnh c tnh khi phan tch so lieu t nhieu mau ve cung 1 loai thong
tin nhng c thu thap nhng thi iem khac nhau va co c mau khac nhau. So trung
bnh gia trong c tnh nh sau:
Weighted x = ni x i/N
ni
so gia tr cua mau i
so trung bnh cua mau i
xI
N
tong so gia tr cua cac mau
Trimmed mean (so trung bnh gon) va Winsorized mean (so trung bnh gan)
La hai phep tnh lai so trung bnh nham han che tac ong cua gia tr cc.

Trimmed mean: so trung bnh c tnh sau khi a got bo gia tr au va gia tr
cuoi cua chuoi thong ke.
Winsorize mean: so trung bnh c tnh sau khi a gan 5% so gia tr au chuoi
thong ke (cac gia tr cc thap) bang vi gia tr thap ke tiep (so
vi 5% cac gia tr cc thap), va 5% so gia tr cuoi chuoi
thong ke (cac gia tr cc cao) bang vi gia tr cao ke tiep (so
vi 5% cac gia tr cc cao).

III. SO O KHUYNH HNG PHAN TAN (Measures of Dispersion) :

So o phan tan chuyen tai thong tin ve khoi lng (mc o) bien thien hien dien
trong tap hp so lieu.
1. Bien o(Range) :

R = xL xs
Cong dung cua bien o rat gii han (v ch dung co 2 gia tr).

2. Phng sai (Variance) :

Phng sai cua mot tap hp so lieu la so o o phan tan tng oi cua cac gia
tr (thuoc tap hp) xung quanh so trung bnh (cua tap hp so lieu).
+ Phng sai (cua) dan so (Population Variance)
N

2 =

(x

i =1

N: so gia tr cua dan so

+ Phng sai (cua) mau (Sample Variance)

Trng hp mau nho :

n

S2 =

(x

i =1

x)

n 1

n: so gia tr cua mau

Trng hp mau ln :
n

n xi2
S

i =1

xi
i =1
n

n(n 1)

3. o lech chuan (Standard Deviation)

LC la so o o phan tan giong nh phng sai, nhng c dien ta bang n
v o ban au. LC c tnh bang cach rut can 2 cua phng sai.
LC cua dan so co ky hieu (sigma), LC cua mau co ky hieu la s
IV. Bach phan v va T phan v (Percentiles and Quartiles)
Cho mot tap hp co n gia tr x1, x2, .., xn, bach phan v th p (goi la P) la gia tr
cua X ma theo o co p% so gia tr nho hn P va (100p)% so gia tr ln hn P.
P10 ch bach phan v th 10, P50 ch bach phan v th 50, v..v..
Thong thng, bach phan v c tnh trong cac trng hp tap hp so lieu ln.
9

V tr cua bach phan v th k (Pk) co the c tnh nh sau:

Pk =

k
n
100

Bach phan v th 25 thng c goi la T phan v th nhat (Q1)

Bach phan v th 50 (so trung v) thng c goi la T phan v th hai
(hoac T phan v gia Q2)
Bach phan v th 75 thng c goi la T phan v th ba (Q3)
3. Hop va Day keo (Box-and-Whisker Plots)
Cong cu hnh anh e trnh bay cac t phan v. Nam bc e ve:
at bien so len truc ngang (hoanh)
Ve mot box vao khoang khong nam tren truc ngang vi cac ac iem: au
ben trai cua box ng vi Q1, va au ben phai cua box ng vi Q3.
Chia box lam 2 phan bang 1 ng doc ng vi Q2.
Ke 1 ng nam ngang goi la whisker t au trai cua box en iem ng vi
gia tr nho nhat cua chuoi so lieu.
Ke 1 ng nam ngang khac, cung goi la whisker t au phai cua box en
iem ng vi gia tr ln nhat cua chuoi so lieu.

10

Bai 3

I.

PHAN PHOI XAC SUAT

(Probability distributions)

PHAN PHOI XAC SUAT (PPXS) CUA CAC BIEN SO RI

nh ngha: PPXS cua mot bien so ngau nhien ri la mot bang, bieu, cong thc,
hoac cong cu khac c s dung e bieu th tat ca cac gia tr co the co cua mot bien so
ri cung vi xac suat tng ng cua chung.
Th du: Mot nhan vien Ban DS-KHHG phu trach 50 ho gia nh. Hay thiet lap PPXS
cua X, la so tre em cua tng ho, cho dan so nay.
Phan phoi xac suat cua so tre em/ho gia nh trong 1 dan so co 50 gia nh

Tan so xuat hien

cua x (So ho gia nh)

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

P(X=x)

1
4
6
4
9
10
7
4
2
2
1
50

1/50
4/50
6/50
4/50
9/50
10/50
7/50
4/50
2/50
2/50
1/50
50/50

Xac suat
10/50
9/50
8/50
7/50
6/50
5/50
4/50
3/50
2/50
1/50
0
0

1 2

10

11

ac iem chung:

(1)
(2)

0 P(X=x) 1
P (X=x) = 1

Dien giai:
+ Gia s nhan vien nay chon ngau nhien mot ho gia nh e i tham. Xac suat e tham
trung mot ho gia nh co 3 tre la bao nhieu?
Nhn vao bang PPXS: P(X=x) = 4/50 = 0,08
+ Xac suat e tham trung mot gia nh co 3 hoac 4 tre la bao nhieu?
P(X=3 hoac X=4) = P(X=3) + P(X=4) = 0,26
1.1. PPXS don (Cummulative Distrubitions)
Phan phoi xac suat don cua so tre em/ho gia nh trong 1 dan so co 50 gia nh

x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Tan so xuat hien

cua x (So ho gia nh)

P(X=x)

1
4
6
4
9
10
7
4
2
2
1
50

P(X x)

1/50
4/50
6/50
4/50
9/50
10/50
7/50
4/50
2/50
2/50
1/50
50/50

1/50
5/50
11/50
15/50
24/50
34/50
41/50
45/50
47/50
49/50
50/50

Dien giai:
+ Tm xac suat e tham trung mot ho gia nh c chon ngau nhien co t 5 con tr len?
P(X 5) = 1 P(X < 5) = 1 0,48 = 0,52
+ Tm xac suat e tham trung mot ho gia nh c chon ngau nhien co t 3 en 6 con?
P(3 X 6) = P(X 6) P(X < 3) = 4/50 11/50 = 0,82 0,22 = 0,60
1.2. Phan Phoi Nh Phan (Binomial Distribution)
La mot trong cac PPXS rat thng gap trong thong ke ng dung.
Tien trnh Bernoulli: bao gom mot loat cac th nghiem Bernoulli (Bernoulli trials) c
tien hanh lien tiep nhau di nhng ieu kien sau:
1. Moi th nghiem ch cho ra mot trong hai ket qua oc lap ho tng. Mot loai ket qua
c at la thanh cong, va ket qua con lai c at la that bai.
2. Xac suat cua mot lan thanh cong, goi la p, khong oi t th nghiem sang th nghiem
khac. Xac suat cua 1 lan that bai, 1 p, goi la q.
12

3. Cac th nghiem oc lap vi nhau; ngha la ket qua cua 1 th nghiem bat ky khong b
anh hng bi ket qua cua bat ky lan th nghiem nao khac.
Th du: Tai mot benh vien phu san co 52% so san an ghi nhan sinh con trai (xac suat e
chon mot san an sinh con trai la 0,52), neu chon ngau nhien 5 san an t dan so san an cua
BV nay th xac suat e chon c ung 3 san an sinh con trai la bao nhieu?
at ket qua chon c san an sinh con trai la 1 va
ket qua chon c san an sinh con gai la 0
at xac suat cua 1 lan thanh cong la p (chon c san an sinh con trai)
xac suat cua 1 lan that bai la q (chon c san an sinh con gai)
Gia s sau khi chon 1 t, co ket qua nh sau:
10110
Theo phep nhan xac suat,
P (1,0,1,1,0) = pqppq = p3q2
Neu khong quan tam en th t san an trong tng t rut ma ch quan tam en viec rut
c 3 san an sinh con trai thoi th co cac cach rut sau:
Lan rut
Th t
----------------------------------------------------------------------.
1
10110
2
11100
3
10011
4
11010
5
11001
6
10101
7
01110
8
00111
9
01011
10
01101
----------------------------------------------------------------------Xac suat e chon c san an sinh con trai cua moi t rut eu bang nhau (= p3q2).
Theo luat (phep) cong xac suat, xac suat e rut 1 lan c 3 san an sinh con trai bang:
10 (0,52)3 (0,48)2 = 10 (0,140608) (0,2304) = 0,32
Qui ra cong thc,
f(3)

= 5C3 p3q5 3

13

Cong thc chung:

f ( x )= n C x p x q n x

vi x = 0,1,2,.. ..,n

Phan phoi nh phan

II. PHAN PHOI XAC SUAT (PPXS) CUA CAC BIEN SO LIEN TUC :
1. Gii thieu :

Tan
so
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2

9,5

19,5

29,5

39,5

49,5

59,5

69,5

79,5

Histogram cua 57 gia tr can nang (ounces) cua cac khoi u ac tnh:
Moi hnh ch nhat (khoang cach lp) co ac iem
+ Chieu rong: khoang cach gia 2 iem (gia tr) nh trc tren truc x
+ Be cao: tan so cua cac gia tr nam trong khoang 2 iem nay.
Tan so cua tng KCL se c tnh bang t le tng ng vi phan dien tch gii han bi 2
iem tren truc x va be cao cua hnh ch nhat.

14

Gia s tnh huong bien so ngau nhien lien tuc co mot so lng rat ln cac gia tr va KCL
c chia rat nho, histogram co the se trong giong nh bieu o di ay:

x
Neu noi cac iem gia cua cac KCL lai e thiet lap a giac tan so, chac chan se c 1
ng cong t goc canh hn.
Gia s so lng cac gia tr, n, tien en vo cc, va be rong cua cac KCL tien en 0, a
giac tan so se co dang 1 ng cong tron tra

F(x)

Cac ng cong tron tra nay thng c dung e bieu th phan phoi cua cac bien so lien tuc.
Cac ng cong nay co ac iem nh sau:
+ Tong dien tch nam ben di ng cong bang 1 (tng t nh cua histogram)
+ Tan so tng oi cua cac gia tr nam gia 2 iem tren truc x bang vi tong dien tch
gii han bi ng cong, truc x, va 2 ng thang ng dng len t 2 iem nay tren
truc x.
Xac suat cua bat ky 1 gia tr ac hieu nao cua bien so nay eu bang 0 (v 1 gia tr ch c tieu
bieu bang 1 iem tren truc x, va vung dien tch pha tren 1 iem bang 0).
nh ngha: Mot ham so khong am f(x) c goi la phan phoi xac suat cua 1 bien so ngau nhien
lien tuc X neu tong dien tch gii han bi ng cong va truc x cua no bang 1, va neu phan dien
tch nam di ng cong gii han bi ng cong, truc x va cac ng thang ng dng len t 2
iem a va b bat ky cho biet xac suat cua X gia 2 iem a va b.

15

2. PHAN PHOI BNH THNG (Normal distribution)

Phan phoi bnh thng (PPBT), con goi la phan phoi Gauss (Gaussian
distribution), co cong thc bieu th:

f ( x) =

( x ) 2 / 2 2

, - <x <+

Phan phoi Bnh thng co 2 thong so la , so trung bnh, va , o lech chuan. ng

bieu dien la ng cong hnh chuong.
ac iem:
1/ oi xng xung quanh so trung bnh cua no.
2/ So trung bnh = so trung v = so troi
3/ Tong dien tch di ng cong bang 1 n v vuong.

4/ Neu dng cac ng thang ng cach so trung bnh (1 khoang cach bang) 1 LC ve
ca hai pha, phan dien tch gii han bi 2 ng thang nay, truc x, va ng cong se
gan bang 68% cua tong dien tch.
Neu ni rong gii han ben mot khoang cach bang 2 LC ve ca hai pha, phan dien
tch gii han se gan bang 95%, va con so nay se gan bang 99,7% neu khoang cach la
3 LC.
5/ PPBT hoan toan c xac nh bi cac thong so va . Ngha la co rat nhieu PPBT
c xac nh bi cac gia tr va/hoac khac nhau, va chung hp thanh mot ho
(family) PPBT.

16

0,68

(a)
1

+ 1

(b)

0,95

0,025

0,025

+ 2

(c)

0,997

0,0015

0,0015

+ 3

<

<

3
1

2
3
1

<

<

17

Phan phoi bnh thng chuan (Standard Normal Distribution)

La thanh vien quan trong nhat cua ho PPBT, con goi la PPBT n v, v co
= 0 va = 1.
Bien so cua PPBT chuan c at la z vi z = (x )/.
Cong thc tnh PPBT chuan

f ( z) =

z2 / 2

e
2

, - <x <+

e tm xac suat cua gia tr z nam trong khoang xac nh bi 2 iem bat ky z0 va z1
tren truc z, phai tm phan dien tch gii han bi 1cac ng thang ng dng len t z0 va
z1, 2 ng cong, va 3 truc hoanh.
Phan dien tch nay c tnh bang phep tnh tch phan

z1
z0

( z) =

1
2

z2 / 2

dz

Tuy nhien, co the dung bang a tnh san e tra ra cac ket qua tch phan nay.
Th du:
1/ Cho PPBT chuan, tm phan dien tch di ng cong, tren truc z gia = va z = 2.
Tra bang thay z = 2 tng ng vi phan dien tch la 0,9772.
Dien giai:
1
Xac suat e chon ngau nhien va tm c 1 gia tr z nam trong khoang ( - 2)
la 0,9772; hoac
2
Tan so tng oi cua cac gia tr cua z nam trong khoang ( - 2) la 97,72%;
3
92,72% cac gia tr cua z nam trong khoang ( - 2) .
2/ Tnh xac suat e chon ngau nhien c mot z co gia tr trong khoang 2,55 va + 2,55.
P(2,55 < z < 2,55) = P(z < 2,55) P(z < 2,55) = 0,9946 0,0054 = 0,9892
3/ Tm P(z 2,71).
P(z 2,71) = 1 P(z 2,71) = 1 0,9966 = 0,0034
NG DUNG CUA PPBT
Mo hnh PPBT rat hu ch va tien li hn cac mo hnh phc tap khac trong viec tnh xac
suat cua mot so bien so (co phan phoi bnh thng hoac gan nh bnh thng)

Th du:
1/ Trong 1 nghien cu ve benh Alzheimer, ve trong lng cua nao benh nhan, ngi ta
tnh c = 1076,80 grams va = 105,76 grams. c biet (bien so) trong lng nao
cua benh nhan b Alzheimer phan phoi gan nh bnh thng, hay tm xac suat e chon
ngau nhien c 1 benh nhan co nao nang < 800 grams.
ve hnh phan phoi
chuyen so lieu t x sang z (PPBT chuan):
18

z=

z=

800 1076,80
= 2,62
105,76

trnh bay

800 1076,80

P ( x < 800) = P z <

= P( z < 2,62) = 0,0044
105,76

Xac suat e chon ngau nhien c mot benh nhan co nao nang < 800 grams la 0,0044.

2/ Biet c chieu cao cua mot dan so co 10.000 ngi phan phoi gan nh bnh thng
vi trung bnh bang 70 inches va LC bang 3 inches.
a/ Tnh xac suat e chon ngau nhien c 1 ngi co chieu cao trong khoang
65 va 74 inches.
Vi x = 65

z=

65 70
= 1,67
3

Vi x = 74

z=

74 70
= 1,33
3

74 70
65 70
P ( 65 < x < 74 ) = P
z

3
3
= P( 1,67 z 1,33)
= P( z 1,33) P( z 1,67)
= 0,9082 0,0475

= 0,8607

Xac suat tm c la 0,8607.

b/ Tnh xem co bao nhieu ngi 77 inches.
Xac suat e 1 ngi c chon ngau nhien co chieu cao 77 inches,
77 70

P(x > 77) = P z >

= P(z > 2,33) = 1 0,9901 = 0, 0099
3

Co 10.000 (0,0099) = 99 ngi co chieu cao > 77 inches.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

19

Bai 4

PHAN PHOI MAU

(Sampling Distributions)
I.

GII THIEU
Phan phoi (PP) mau la cha khoa e hieu c cac suy luan thong ke.
Viec hieu biet PPXS nham hai muc ch:
1
Tm li giai cho cac cau hoi ve xac suat cua cac so thong ke cua mau
2
Cung cap nen tang ly thuyet can thiet cho viec a ra nhng suy luan thong ke
ung an.
PP mau nham vao muc ch th nhat.
nh ngha
PP. cua tat ca cac gia tr c xem la cac so thong ke (statistics) tnh c t cac
mau (samples) co cung kch thc mau (sample size) rut ngau nhien t cung mot
dan so, c goi la PP. mau cua so thong ke o.
Cac bc thiet lap PP. mau
+ T mot dan so hu han co kch thc N, rut ngau nhien tat ca cac mau (co the
rut c) co kch thc n.
+ Tnh so thong ke co lien quan cho tng mau
+ Lap bang phan phoi tan so cho cac so thong ke tnh c nay.
ac iem quan trong
03 ieu can c biet ve 1 PP. mau: so trung bnh, phng sai, va dang ham so.
Viec thiet lap PP. mau theo 3 bc noi tren se tr nen rat kho khan vi dan so co
kch thc ln, va tr nen bat kha thi khi gap dan so vo han. Cach tot nhat e giai
quyet 2 van e nay la dung cac ly thuyet toan hoc e tnh gan ung PP. mau cua 1
so thong ke.

II.

PP. (CUA SO) TRUNG BNH MAU (Distribution of the Sample Mean)

Th du dan nhap
Gia s co 1 dan so co kch thc N = 5 (tuoi cua 5 a tre ieu tr ngoai tru tai
PKSK Tam Than Quan) vi x1 = 6, x2 = 8, x3 = 10, x4 = 12, x5 = 14.

So trung bnh (dan so):

Phng sai (dan so):

50
= 10
5

(x
=

40
=8
5

20

Phng sai:

(x
=

N 1

(tnh cach khac)

40
= 10
4

Thiet lap PP. mau cua so trung bnh mau, x, da tren kch thc mau n = 2 rut ra t dan
so nay. Rut tat ca cac mau co the rut c vi n = 2 t dan so nay theo cach e lai
(with replacement), ngha la rut ra xem ket qua xong th tra lai vao dan so; tong so mau
rut c bang Nn = 25
RUT

LAN

10

12

14

6, 6

8, 6

10, 6

12, 6

14, 6

RUT

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

6, 8

8, 8

10, 8

12, 8

14, 8

LAN

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

10

6, 10

8, 10

10, 10

12, 10

14, 10

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

12

6, 12

8, 12

10, 12

12, 12

14, 12

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

(13)

6, 14

8, 14

10, 14

12, 14

14, 14

(10)

(11)

(12)

(13)

(14)

14

(So trong ngoac la so trung bnh, x )

Lap bang phan phoi tan so cua x
Tan so
x
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Tong

1
2
3
4
5
4
3
2
1
25

Tan so tng oi
1/25
2/25
3/25
4/25
5/25
4/25
3/25
2/25
1/25
25/25

21

Dang ham so cua PP. dan so: Phan phoi n eu

f (x)
6

5
4
3
2
1

10

12

14

Dang ham so cua PP. trung bnh mau: phan phoi dang bnh thng

f (x)
6
5
4
3
2
1

10

11

12

13

14

Tnh thong so cua PP. Trung bnh mau

x =

x
N

6 + 7 + 8 + .... + 14 250
=
= 10
25
25

so trung bnh cua PP. trung bnh mau bang so trung bnh cua dan so goc

x =
2

(x )
N
i

(6 10) 2 + (7 10)2 + ... + (14 10) 2

25

100
=4
25

22

Phng sai cua PP. mau khong bang phng sai dan so, ma bang phng sai dan so chia
cho kch thc mau

= n
2

8
=4
2

, c goi la sai so chuan cua so

n
trung bnh, hoac goi n gian la sai so chuan (standard error).

Can so bac 2 cua phng sai cua PP. mau,

ac iem cua PP. Trung bnh mau

Khi lay mau theo cach e lai hoac lay mau t 1 dan so vo han
1. T mot dan so phan phoi bnh thng, PP. Trung bnh mau co nhng ac iem sau:
+ PP. cua x se bnh thng
+ So trung bnh, , cua phan phoi x se bang vi so trung bnh cua dan so, , ma
x

t o cac mau c rut ra.

2
+ Phng sai, x , cua phan phoi x se bang phng sai cua dan so chia cho kch
thc mau.

2. T mot dan so phan phoi khong bnh thng

Ly thuyet gii han trung tam (Central Limit Theorem)
Cho mot dan so co dang ham so khong bnh thng vi so trung bnh la va
phng sai hu han 2, phan phoi mau cua x (la cac so trung bnh tnh c t cac mau
2
co kch thc n t dan so nay) se co so trung bnh = va phng sai x = 2 / n va
x

se phan phoi gan nh bnh thng khi kch thc mau ln.

Trong thc tien, kch thc mau bang 30 c xem la u ln. Noi chung, PP. Trung bnh
mau cang gan vi bnh thng hn khi kch thc mau cang ln.
Lay mau Khong e lai (without replacement)
Trong hau het cac tnh huong thc te, viec lay mau nhat thiet phai c thc hien vi 1
dan so hu han va PP. Trung bnh mau trong nhng ieu kien nay cung co phan nao thay
oi.
Vi th du dan nhap, neu viec lay mau c tien hanh theo cach khong e lai va khong
quan tam en th t c rut ra cua cac gia tr (trong cac mau), th ch co 10 mau (5C2).
So trung bnh cua phan phoi x:
x
= C
x

7 + 8 + 9 + ... + 13 100
=
= 10
10
10

So trung bnh cua PP. mau cung bang vi so trung bnh dan so.
23

Phng sai cua PP. mau

x =
2

(x

x )2

Cn

Phng sai cua PP. Trung bnh mau,

2
x

30
=3
10

, khong bang

8
=4
2

ma bang

N n 8 52
=
=3
N 1 2
3

(Neu kch thc mau ln, ly thuyet gii han trung tam se c ap dung va x se phan phoi
gan nh bnh thng)

N n
c goi la yeu to ieu chnh dan so hu han (finite population
N 1
correction) va co the c bo qua khi kch thc mau tng oi nho so vi dan so.
(n / N 0,05)
Yeu to

TOM TAT PHAN PHOI TRUNG BNH MAU

1. Khi viec lay mau c thc hien tren 1 dan so phan phoi bnh thng vi phng sai
biet trc:
a. x =
b.
c.

= / n
Phan phoi trung bnh mau la phan phoi bnh thng

2. Khi viec lay mau c thc hien tren 1 dan so phan phoi khong bnh thng vi
phng sai biet trc:
a. So trung bnh
x =
b. Sai so chuan

= / n

c.

khi n / N 0,05

= ( / n )

Nn
N 1

Phan phoi trung bnh mau la phan phoi gan nh bnh thng

24

Th du ap dung
Gia s ngi ta biet c rang chieu dai hop so cua 1 dan so ngi phan phoi gan nh
bnh thng vi so trung bnh la 185,6 mmm va LC bang 12,7 mmm. Xac suat e tm
thay 1 mau co n = 10 (rut ra t dan so nay) co so trung bnh, x , ln hn 190 la bao nhieu?
+ Mau khao sat nay (n = 10) ch la mot trong rat nhieu mau co n = 10 rut ra t dan so,
nh vay so trung bnh cua no se la 1 trong rat nhieu x cau tao nen phan phoi trung bnh
mau ((phat xuat t dan so nay)
+ Dan so khao sat phan phoi gan nh bnh thng, nh vay PP. Trung bnh mau cung phan
phoi gan nh bnh thng vi
x = = 185,6

va

= 12,7 / 10 = 4,02

(gia nh la dan so tng oi ln so vi mau

nen co the bo qua he so ieu chnh dan so hu han)
+ Ap dung PP. bnh thng chuan e tnh vi cong thc tnh z bien oi
z=

/ n

= 12,7 mm
x

= 185,6 mm

= 12, 7 /10 = 4, 02

0,1379

= 185,6mm

190

=1
0,1379
0
z=

1,09

190 185, 6 4, 4
=
= 1, 09
4, 02
4, 02

25

P(z > 1,09) = 1 P(z 1,09) = 1 0,8621 = 0,1379

Xac suat e chon c mot mau n = 10 co x > 190 la 13,79%.
III.

PHAN PHOI HIEU CUA 2 TRUNG BNH MAU

(Distribution of the Difference Between Two Sample Means)
Gii thieu
Viec khao sat 2 dan so e tm hieu xem so trung bnh cua chung co khac nhau
khong, va o ln cua s khac biet gia chung (hieu so) la bao nhieu rat thng
c tien hanh trong thc te. S hieu biet ve PP. Hieu cua 2 trung bnh mau rat hu
ch trong trng hp nay.
Th du chng minh: Gia s co 2 dan so dan so 1 a tng mac mot so benh co
lien quan vi cham phat trien tam than (mental retardation), va dan so 2 cha tng
mac cac benh co lien quan nay. He so thong minh (HSTM) cua hai dan so nay
c xem la phan phoi gan nh bnh thng vi LC bang 20.
Gia s t moi dan so lay 1 mau co n = 15, tnh trung bnh HSTM va co ket qua
x1 = 92 va x 2 = 105. Neu khong co s khac biet gia 2 dan so, xet ve mat so trung
bnh thc s cua HSTM, th xac suat e tm c 1 hieu ln bang hoac ln hn
x1 x 2 .

Thiet lap PP. mau cua x 1 x 2

+ Rut tat ca cac mau (co the rut c) co n1 = 15 t dan so 1

Rut tat ca cac mau (co the rut c) co n2 = 15 t dan so 2

+ Tnh trung bnh cho tat ca cac mau tren.
+ Lay hieu cua tng cap so trung bnh mau (1 t dan so 1, va 1 t dan so 2)
+ Lap phan phoi mau cho cac hieu a tnh c nay.

ac iem cua PP. hieu 2 trung bnh mau

+ Phan phoi bnh thng
+ So trung bnh
= 1 2

x1 x 2

+ Sai so chuan

x1 x 2

+
n

Th du tren cho thay phan phoi hieu 2 trung bnh mau la mot phan phoi bnh thng
vi
So trung bnh :

Phng sai :

2 = 0 (1 va 2 khong khac nhau), va

2
x1 x 2

= ( 12 / n1 ) + ( 22 / n 2 ) = [(20)2 / 15 + (20)2 / 15] = 53,33

26

Chuyen qua z

z =

(x1 x 2 ) (1 2 )

12 22
+
n1 n 2

Phan dien tch di ng cong cua x1 x 2 tng ng vi xac suat ang tm la phan

dien tch nam ben trai cua x1 x 2 = 92 105 = 13. Gia tr cua z tng ng vi 13
trong trng hp khong co s khac biet gia 2 trung bnh dan so c tnh

z =

13 0
53,3

13
53,3

= 1,78

Tra bang tm xac suat, dien tch di ng cong phan phoi bnh thng chuan ben trai
cua 1,73 bang 0,0375.
Neu khong co s khac nhau gia hai so trung bnh dan so, xac suat e tm thay hieu cua 2
so trung bnh mau ln bang hoac ln hn 13 la 0,0375.
Lay mau t cac dan so PP. bnh thng
Tien trnh tnh toan noi tren van ung khi 2 mau co kch thc khac nhau n1 n2, va
khi phng sai dan so khac nhau 1 2.

Lay mau t cac dan so phan phoi khong bnh thng hoac khong biet dang phan
phoi:
Lay mau ln e ap dung ly thuyet gii han trung tam.

IV.

PHAN PHOI T LE MAU (Distribution of the Sample Proportion)

Th du chng minh: Gia s trong mot dan so co 8% so ngi b mu mau (p =

0,08). Neu chon ngau nhien 150 ngi t dan so nay th xac suat e co c t le mu mau
(cua mau) ln bang hoac ln hn 0,15 la bao nhieu.
Thiet lap PP. mau cua p
(Cach tien hanh giong het nh cach tien hanh thiet lap PP. trung bnh mau).
+ Rut tat ca cac mau (co the rut c) co n = 150 t dan so
+ Tnh t le mau (sample proportion) p cho tat ca cac mau tren.
+ Lap phan phoi mau cho cac p a tnh c nay.
ac iem cua PP. T le mau: khi c mau ln, PP. T le mau phan phoi gan nh bnh
thng (theo ly thuyet gii han trung tam). So trung bnh cua phan phoi, bang trung
p
bnh cong cua tat ca cac t le mau), se bang vi t le dan so p, va phng sai cua phan
phoi

p se bang
2

p (1 p) /n.
27

e tra li cau hoi, dung PP. bnh thng chuan vi

p p
0,15 0,08

z =

p(1 p )
n

0,00049

0,07
= 3,15
0,0222

Tra bang PP.bnh thng e tm c p(z = 3,15) = 1 0,9992 = 0,0008. Xac suat e
tm thay mot p 0,15 cua mot mau co n = 150 t mot dan so co p = 0,08 la 0,08%. Viec
rut c mot mau nh the nay, trong thc te, c xem la hiem xay ra.
Van e kch thc mau ln e co the chuyen t PP. nh phan sang PP. bnh thng
Tieu chuan thng c ap dung la khi ca np va n(1 p) eu > 5.
(Vi n = 150 va p cua dan so bang 0,08: np (150 x 0,08) = 12, va nq (150 x 0,92) = 138
eu ln hn 5)
V. PHAN PHOI HIEU 2 T LE MAU
(Distribution of the Difference between Two Sample Proportions)
ac iem cua phan phoi hieu 2 t le mau: Neu 2 mau oc lap co kch thc mau n1 va n2
c rut ngau nhien t 2 dan so co cac bien so nh phan vi t le (ac iem c quan
tam) lan lt la p1 va p 2 th phan phoi hieu cua 2 t le mau p 1 p 2 se phan phoi gan nh
bnh thng vi :
So trung bnh :

Sai so chuan:

p 2

p 1 p 2

pp

p1 (1 p1 ) p 2 (1 p 2 )
+
n1
n2

khi n1 va n2 ln.

Thiet lap phan phoi mau cua p 1 p 2

+ Rut tat ca cac mau (co the rut c) co kch thc mau la n1 t dan so 1
Rut tat ca cac mau (co the rut c) co kch thc mau la n2 t dan so 2
+ Tnh t le mau cho tat ca cac mau tren.
+ Lay hieu cua tng cap t le mau (1 t dan so 1, va t dan so 2).
+ Lap phan phoi mau cho cac hieu a tnh c nay.
Xac suat cua hieu 2 t le mau c tnh bang
z=

( p 1 p 2 ) ( p1 p 2 )
p1 (1 p1 ) p 2 (1 p 2 )
n1

n2

Th du chng minh : Gia s t le cua ngi nghien ma tuy va va nang trong dan so th 1
bang 0,50 va trong dan so th hai bang 0,33. Tnh xac suat tm thay ( p 1 p 2 ) ln bang
hoac ln hn 0,30 ?
28

Gia nh la phan phoi mau cua ( p 1 p 2 ) la phan phoi gan nh bnh thng vi

p 2

=
p 2

= 0,50 0,33 = 0,17

0,33 0,67 0,50 0,50
+
= 0,004711
100
100

Phan dien tch tng ng vi xac suat can tm la dien tch nam di ng cong
( p 1 p 2 ) ve pha ben trai cua 0,30.
z=

( p 1 p 2 ) ( p1 p 2 )
p1 (1 p1 ) p 2 (1 p 2 )
+
n1
n2

0,30 0,17
0,004711

= 1,89

Tra bang tm thay dien tch nam di ng cong phan phoi bnh thng chuan
pha ben phai cua 1,89 bang 1 - 0,9706 = 0,0294. Xac suat e tm thay mot hieu ln hn
hoac ln bang 0,30 la 2,94%.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

29

Bai 5 (TKYH)

PHEP C LNG
(Estimation)
I.

GII THIEU

Thong ke suy luan: la tien trnh qua o chung ta co the at c 1 ket luan ve dan so
tren c s cac thong tin cha trong 1 mau rut ra t dan so o.
c lng la mot trong 2 lnh vc chung cua thong ke suy luan. Tien trnh c
lng nh vay se bao gom viec tnh toan, t so lieu cua mau, mot so so thong ke c
xem nh ai bieu gan ung cua thong so tng ng cua dan so (ma t o mau c rut
ra).
C s ly luan cua phep c lng trong lnh vc khoa hoc sc khoe da tren gia
nh rang ngi lam cong tac y te quan tam en nhng thong so, nh so trung bnh va t
le, cua cac dan so khac nhau; va nh vay, co 2 ly do giai thch tai sao can phai c lng.
Ly do th nhat: Hau het cac dan so, tuy la hu han, nhng cung khong the khao sat toan
bo (100%) c do van e chi ph. Ly do th hai: khong co kha nang khao sat ay u cac
dan so vo han.
oi vi moi thong so, co the tnh c 2 loai so c lng: so c lng iem (point
estimate) va so c lng khoang (interval estimate).
nh ngha:
+ So c lng iem la mot gia tr n bang so c dung e c lng thong so
tng ng cua dan so.
+ So c lng khoang gom co 2 gia tr bang so xac nh 1 khoang cac gia tr, vi
1 o tin cay cho trc, ma chung ta tin rang se bao gom thong so ang c c
lng.
Cong Cu c Lng (Estimator) thch hp

Cong cu c lng la qui tac tnh cac so c lng, thng c trnh bay di dang cong thc.
Th du:

xi
n
la mot cong cu c lng cua so trung bnh dan so . Gia tr n bang so la ket qua cua
cong thc nay, x , c goi la so c lng cua thong so .

x =

Dan so chon mau (Sampled Population) va dan so ch (Target Population)

+ Dan so chon mau la dan so ma t o ngi ta thc s rut 1 mau ra.
+ Dan so ch la dan so ma ngi ta muon tm mot ket luan cho no.
Hai dan so nay co the giong nhau hoac khac nhau. Cac phng phap suy luan thong ke
ch cho phep rut ra nhng ket luan ve dan so chon mau (vi ieu kien phai ap dung
phng phap chon mau thch hp). Neu:
30

 Dan so chon mau = dan so ch: ket luan ve dan so ch mang tnh suy luan
thong ke.
Dan so chon mau dan so ch: ket luan ve dan so ch ch da tren cac xem
xet khong mang tnh thong ke.
Mau ngau nhien (Random sample) va Mau khong ngau nhien (Nonrandom
sample)
Mau ngau nhien: Neu 1 mau co kch thc n c rut ra t mot dan so N theo cach
ma tat ca cac mau co kch thc n (co the rut ra c t N) eu co c hoi bang nhau
e c rut ra, th mau nay c goi la mau ngau nhien.
o chnh xac cua cac suy luan thong ke phu thuoc rat ln vao mau ngau nhien.
Mau khong ngau nhien (Mau thuan tien): la mau c lay khong theo cach ngau
nhien. Viec tong quat hoa ket qua phai da nhieu tren nhng xem xet khong co tnh
thong ke.
II.

KHOANG TIN CAY CHO TRUNG BNH DAN SO

(Confidence Interval for a Population Mean)

Rut mot mau ngau nhien co kch thc n t 1 dan so phan phoi bnh thng, tnh x .
Tuy co the dung x lam so c lng iem cho , nhng khong the ky vong la x bang
c (v tnh khong nhat quan cua cach chon mau). Do vay, c lng bang 1 khoang
(interval) se phan nao chuyen tai c cac thong tin ve o ln co the co cua hn.
Phan phoi mau va Phep c lng
Nhac lai ac iem cua PP. Trung bnh mau
Neu viec lay mau c tien hanh tren 1 dan so PP. bnh thng th PP. Trung bnh mau
cung PP. Bnh thng vi

va

. Tnh chat PP. Bnh thng cua x

n
giup biet c rang co khoang 95% cac gia tr cua x (giup cau tao nen phan phoi) nam
trong khoang 2 LC tnh t so trung bnh. Hai iem cach eu so trung bnh 1 khoang
bang 2 LC la ( - 2 x ) va ( + 2 x ), nh vay khoang cach 2 x se cha khoang
&x&
&

&x&
&

95% cac gia tr co the co cua x .

Phep c lng
V khong biet gia tr cua nen bieu thc 2 x se khong co y ngha g ln. Tuy nhien,
vi so c lng iem cua la x , van e co the giai quyet c. Gia s dng c cac
khoang cach eu 2 ben cho tat ca cac x (tnh c t tat ca cac mau co kch thc n rut
ra t dan so co lien quan), chung ta se co 1 so lng rat ln cac khoang cach co dang
x 2 &x&& co be rong bang vi be rong cua khoang cach xung quanh (ma ta khong biet).

Gan 95% cua cac khoang nay chac chan se co tam iem nam trong khoang 2 x xung
quanh . Moi khoang co tam iem nam trong khoang 2 x xung quanh se cha .
31

Th du chng minh: Gia s mot nha nghien cu quan tam tam en viec tm so c lng
cua nong o trung bnh cua 1 so enzymes cua dan so ngi. Lay 1 mau 10 ngi, o nong
o enzyme cho tng ngi roi tnh trung bnh mau, c x = 22. Gia s biet c bien so
nay phan phoi gan nh bnh thng vi phng sai bang 45. Hay c lng .
Khoang tin cay 95% cho c tnh bang:
x 2 x = 22

45
= 22 (2,1213)
10

17,76, 26,24
Thanh phan cua khoang c lng
x 2 x

CCL (He so tin cay) x (Sai so chuan)

Khi lay mau t 1 dan so PP. Bnh thng vi phng sai biet trc, khoang c
lng cho c tnh bi:
x z (1 / 2) x

(1)

Dien giai Khoang Tin Cay (KTC)

Vi he so tin cay (HSTC) bang 2, trong trng hp lay mau lap lai nhieu lan, gan
95% cac khoang [c thiet lap theo bieu thc (1)] se cha trung bnh dan so. Co the
tong quat hoa dien giai nay neu at toan bo phan dien tch di ng cong cua x va
nam ngoai khoang 2 x la , va phan dien tch nam trong khoang 2 x la (1 ).
Dien giai theo xac suat: Trong trng hp lay mau lap lai nhieu lan, t 1 dan so PP.
Bnh thng vi LC biet trc, 100(1)% cua tat ca cac khoang co dang
x z (1 / 2) x cuoi cung cung se cha trung bnh dan so, .
ai lng 1, trong trng hp nay bang 0,95, c goi la he so tin cay (hoac mc
o tin cay), va khoang x z (1 / 2) x c goi la khoang tin cay 95% cho .
Dien giai thc te: Khi lay mau t 1 dan so PP. Bnh thng vi LC biet trc,
chung
ta 100(1)% tin cay la khoang tnh n le, x z (1 / 2) x , co cha trung bnh dan so, .
HSTC trong th du tren, c tnh chnh xac hn, se bang 1,96 (thay v 2). Trong cac ieu
kien khac co the dung bat c HSTC nao, nhng cac gia tr thng dung nhat la
0,95 tng ng vi z bang 1,96
0,90 tng ng vi z bang 1,645
0,99 tng ng vi z bang 2,58.

32

ai lng co c do nhan HSTC vi sai so chuan c goi la o tin cy cua so c

lng (con goi la bien cua sai so).

III. PHAN PHOI t (Students t distribution)

Viec thiet lap KTC 95% cho mot trung bnh dan so (trng hp dan so PP. Bnh
thng hoac lay mau ln) se dng nh khong thc hien c neu khong biet . Tuy
nhien, van e c giai quyet khi lay mau ln (n 30) v khi o co the dung s (LC cua
mau) thay cho .
Khi ch co mau nho (n < 30), bien phap thay the e thiet lap cac KTC la dung phan
phoi t (phan phoi Student)
ai lng
x
co phan phoi nay
t=
s/ n
ac iem cua PP. t
Co so trung bnh bang 0
oi xng xung quanh so trung bnh
Co phng sai > 1, nhng phng sai se tien en 1 khi c mau ln dan len.
Phng
sai cua PP. t c tnh theo o t do (degrees of freedom df)
Bien so t bien thien trong khoang en +
PP. t la mot ho cac PP., khac nhau gia tr (n1), mau so dung e tnh s2. Gia tr
(n1) c xem la o t do.
So sanh vi PP. Bnh thng th PP. t co nh khong cao bang, nhng lai co uoi
nam cao hn

PP. t tien en PP. Bnh thng khi n1 tien en vo cc.

PP. t (df=5)

PPBT

GT ti hn ca t: 2,57 (=0,05, 2 ui)

33

KTC dung t

CCL (HSTC) x (Sai so chuan)

Khi lay mau t mot dan so PP. Bnh thng co LC, , khong c biet, KTC 100(1)%
cho trung bnh dan so c cho bi

x t (1 / 2 )

s
n

Lu y : e dung c PP. t viec lay mau phai c tien hanh tren 1 dan so co PP. Bnh
thng hoac gan nh bnh thng.
Th du chng minh: mot mau gom 16 be gai 10 tuoi cho can nang trung bnh la 71,5
pounds va LC la 12 pounds. Gia nh la tuoi cua cac be gai nay PP. Bnh thng, tm
KTC 95% cho .
Dung trung bnh mau, 71,5 la so c lng iem cua
Sai so chuan bang s/ n = 12/ 16 = 3
o t do, df = n1=161= 15
Tra bang e co t (1 / 2 ) = t 0,975 = 2,1315
71,5 (2,1315) (3)
65,1 77,9

IV. KTC CHO HIEU 2 TRUNG BNH DAN SO

Khi lay mau t hai dan so PP. Bnh thng vi cac phng sai biet trc
KTC 95% cho (12)
( x1 x 2 ) z (1 / 2 )

1
n1

2
n2

Th du chng minh: mot nhom nghien cu quan tam en s khac biet ve nong o
uric acid trong huyet thanh benh nhan khong co va benh nhan co H/C Down.
T 1 benh vien ieu tr tre cham phat trien tr tue:
chon 12 tre co H/C Down, cho ket qua x1 = 4,5/100 ml
T 1 benh vien a khoa:
chon 15 tre co cung tuoi va phai (vi nhom tren), cho ket qua x 2 = 3,4/100 ml
Gia nh rang 2 dan so (cac gia tr nong o uric acid) tren PP. Bnh thng vi phng sai
lan lt la 1 va 1,5. Tm KTC 95% cho (12).
So c lng iem cho (12) bang: x1 x 2 = 4,5 3,4 = 1,1
HSTC tng ng vi 0,95 (tra bang PP. Bnh thng) la 1,96
Sai so chuan

34

&x&&1

&x&&2

12
n1

22
n2

1 1,5
= 0,4282
+
12 15

KTC 95% bang

1,1 1,96 (0,4282) = 1,1 0,84
0,26 1,94
Chung ta 95% tin cay (tin tng) rang hieu cua 2 dan so, 12, nam au o gia 0,26 va
1,94 (v khi lay mau lap lai nhieu lan, 95% cac KTC dng len theo cach nay se cha hieu
cua 2 dan so).
Khi lay mau t hai dan so PP. khong bnh thng: lay mau ln e ap dung ly thuyet
gii han trung tam. Trong trng hp nay neu phng sai cua 2 dan so khong c biet,
dung phng sai cua 2 mau lam so c lng cua chung.
Khi lay mau t hai dan so PP. B.thng vi cac phng sai khong biet trc + n nho
Trng hp phng sai dan so bang nhau (ong phng sai):
Phai tnh so c lng hp (pooled estimate) cua ong phng sai
2

sp =

(n1 1) s12 + (n2 1) s 22

n1 + n2 2

Sai so chuan c cho bi

&x&&1 &x&&2

s 2p
n1

s 2p
n2

va KTC 100(1) cho 12 c cho bi

x1 x 2 t (1 / 2 )

s 2p
n1

s 2p
n2

o t do e xac nh gia tr cua t c tnh bang (n1 + n2 2)

Th du chng minh: Mot nghien cu nham xac nh hieu qua cua viec tap the duc keo
dai tren sc ben. Chon hai nhom ngi: nhom 1 a tham gia chng trnh tap the lc va
duy tr tap trung bnh 13 nam; nhom 2 bao gom nhng ngi khong tap bao gi. Sc ben
c anh gia qua so lan ngoi len trong 30 giay.
Nhom 2: x 2 = 12,1
s2 = 5,6
Nhom 1: x1 = 21,0 s1 = 4,9
Gia nh rang 2 dan so cac so o sc ben nay PP. gan nh bnh thng va 2 phng sai
c biet la bang nhau. Thiet lap KTC 95% cho hieu cua 2 dan so tren.
Tnh so c lng hp cua ong phng sai

(13 1)(4,9) 2 + (17 1)(5,6) 2

= 28,21
13 + 17 2
Tra bang vi df = 13+17-2= 28, HSTC t (1 / 2 ) = t 0,975 = 2,0484
2

sp =

35

KTC 95% bang

(21,0 12,1) 2,0484

28,21 28,21
+
13
17

8,9 4,0085
4,9 12,9

Chung ta 95% tin tng rang hieu cua 2 trung bnh dan so nam au o trong khoang 4,9 va 12,9.

Trng hp phng sai dan so khong bang nhau

Giai phap e ra (theo Cochran) la tnh HSTC t(1-/2)

t(1-/2) =

w1t1 + w2 t 2
w1 + w2

w1 = s21 /n1

w2 = s22 / n2

t1 = t(1-/2) cho (n11) o t do

t2 = t(1-/2) cho (n21) o t do

KTC 100(1-)% cua 12

x1 x 2 t (1 / 2 )

V.

s 2p

n1

s 2p

n2

KTC CHO T LE DAN SO

)
Khi ca np va n(1p) eu 5, phan phoi cua p se gan nh bnh thng vi sai so
)
chuan la p) = p (1 p ) / n . Dung p lam so c lng cho p (dan so), va nh vay se c
)
)
lng p) bang p (1 p ) / n . KTC 100(1-) cho p c tnh bang
)
)
)
p z (1 / 2 ) p(1 p ) / n
Th du chng minh: Tai 1 BV. Tam Than, trong 1 mau 591 ngi nhap vien co 204 ngi
a dung can sa t nhat 1 lan trong i. Thiet lap KTC 95% cho t le ngi dung can sa cua
dan so chon mau nay.
)
So c lng iem cua t le dan so (p) la p = 204/591 = 0,3452.
)
Kch thc mau va p u ln e co the dung PP. Bnh thng chuan khi thiet lap KTC.
HSTC tng ng vi KTC 95% la 1,96
So c lng cua sai so chuan p) = p(1 p ) / n = (0,3452)(0,6548) / 591 = 0,01956
KTC 95% cho p

0,3452 1,96(0,01956)
0,3452 0,0383
0,3069 0,3835

36

VI. KTC CHO HIEU CUA 2 T LE DAN SO

Khi n1 va n2 eu ln va cac t le dan so khong qua gan 0 hoac 1, ap dung ly thuyet
gii han trung tam e dung PP. Bnh thng. Sai so chuan cua so c lng c c
lng bang
) ) ) = p)1 (1 p)1 ) + p) 2 (1 p) 2 )
p1 p2
n1
n2

Vi t le dan so khong biet, KTC 100(1-) cho (p1p2) c cho bi

)
)
( p1 p 2 ) z (1 / 2 )

)
)
)
)
p1 (1 p1 ) p 2 (1 p 2 )
+
n1
n2

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

37

Bai 6

KIEM NH GIA THUYET

(Hypothesis Testing)
I. GII THIEU
Cung giong nh phep c lng, muc ch cua kiem nh gia thuyet (KGT) nham giup
at c mot ket luan lien quan en 1 dan so bang cach khao sat 1 mau rut ra t dan so
o.

1. Khai niem c ban

Mot gia thuyet (hypothesis) co the c nh ngha la mot phat bieu ve mot hoac nhieu
dan so.
Gia thuyet thng lien quan vi cac thong so cua nhng dan so c phat bieu en. Bang
cach KGT ngi ta xac nh c la cac phat bieu nay co phu hp vi so lieu co san
hay khong.
2. Loai gia thuyet: co hai loai gia thuyet: gia thuyet nghien cu va gia thuyet thong ke.
Gia thuyet nghien cu la s c oan hoac gia nh thuc ay viec nghien cu. Gia thuyet
nghien cu dan trc tiep en gia thuyet thong ke.
Gia thuyet thong ke la nhng gia thuyet c phat bieu sao cho chung co the c lng
gia bang nhng ky thuat thong ke thch hp.
3.

Cac bc KGT: phng phap chn bc

3.1 So lieu (Data) : Ban chat cua so lieu lam c s cho phng phap kiem nh phai c
biet ro.
3.2 Gia nh (Assumptions): Cac gia nh quan trong trong phep c lng cung quan
trong trong KGT, bao gom: phan phoi bnh thng cua dan so, phng sai bang
nhau, mau oc lap.
3.3 Gia thuyet (Hypothesis): Trong KGT co 2 gia thuyet thong ke,
Gia thuyet trong (Null hypothesis): la gia thuyet can c kiem nh. Ky hieu H0.
oi khi c goi la gia thuyet ve s khong khac biet, v la phat bieu ong y vi (hoac
khong khac biet) nhng ieu kien c gia nh la ung trong dan so c quan tam.
Noi chung, gia thuyet trong c thiet lap nham muc ch ac biet la e b phu nh.
Trong tien trnh kiem nh H0 hoac b t choi hoac khong b t choi. Neu H0 khong b
t choi, chung ta noi rang so lieu e tien hanh kiem nh khong cung cap u bang
chng e a en s t choi. Neu tien trnh kiem nh a en s t choi, chung ta noi
rang so lieu hien co khong thch hp vi H0, nhng lai thch hp vi 1 so gia thuyet
khac.
Gia thuyet thay the (Alternative hypothesis): ky hieu HA, la 1 phat bieu ve ieu
chung ta se tin la ung neu so lieu cua mau lam cho ta phai t choi H0. Thong thng,
gia thuyet thay the va gia thuyet nghien cu giong nhau.

38

Qui tac phat bieu gia thuyet thong ke

+ Ket qua ma ta hi vong hoac mong muon co c t phep kiem thng c at
trong HA.
+ H0 phai bao gom 1 phat bieu ve ang thc (= , , )
+ H0 la gia thuyet can c kiem nh.
+ H0 va HA c xem la hai tap hp phu cua nhau.
Th du:
Gia s chung ta muon tra li cau hoi:
Co the ket luan la trung bnh dan so khong bang 50 khong?
H 0:
= 50
H A:
50
Co the ket luan la trung bnh dan so ln hn 50 khong?
H 0:
50
H A:
> 50
Co the ket luan la trung bnh dan so nho hn 50 khong?
H 0:
50
H A:
< 50
Lu y: Khi khong the t choi H0 (chap nhan H0), khong c noi la H0 ung, ma ch
noi la co the ung.
3.4 So thong ke kiem nh (Test Statistic): la cac so thong ke co the tnh c t so lieu
cua mau. So thong ke kiem nh (so TKK) ong vai tro ra quyet nh, v quyet
nh t choi hoac khong t choi tuy thuoc vao o ln cua so TKK. Mot th du cua so
TKK la ai lng
z=

x 0

0 la gia tr cua trung bnh dan so theo gia thuyet

/ n

Cong thc chung e tnh so TKK

So thong ke sat hp thong so theo gia thuyet
So TK kiem nh =

sai so chuan cua so thong ke sat hp

3.5 Phan phoi cua so TKK (Distribution of the Test Statistic): can phai cho biet ro phan
phoi xac suat cua so TKK. Th du: phan phoi cua so TKK
z=

x 0

/ n

la PP. Bnh thng chuan neu H0 ung va cac gia nh c thoa

3.6 Qui tac quyet nh (Decision Rule): Tat ca cac gia tr ma so TKK co the gia nh la
nhng iem nam tren truc hoanh cua o th phan phoi so TKK va c chia lam 2
nhom : mot nhom cau tao nen vung t choi, va nhom kia cau tao nen vung khong t choi.
Cac gia tr cua so TKK cau tao nen vung t choi la nhng gia tr t co kha nang xay ra
neu H0 ung.
Qui tac quyet nh bao ta :
+ T choi H0 neu gia tr cua so TKK tnh c t mau la 1 trong nhng gia tr nam trong
vung t choi
+ Khong t choi H0 neu gia tr cua so TKK tnh c t mau la 1 trong nhng gia tr nam
trong vung khong t choi.

39

Ngng co y ngha thong ke (Significance Level): quyet nh xem gia tr nao nam
trong vung t choi va gia tr nao nam trong vung khong t choi c thc hien da tren c
s cua ngng co y ngha thong ke mong muon, ky hieu la .
bieu th dien tch nam di ng cong cua phan phoi so TKK, pha tren cac gia tr
cau tao nen vung t choi nam tren truc hoanh.
Ngng co y ngha thong ke la mot xac suat, va thc te, la xac suat e t choi mot
H0 khi no ung.
V t choi H0 khi no ung la mot sai lam, va trong thc te chung ta muon xac suat xay ra
sai lam nay nho. Gia tr cua thng c chon la 0,01 0,05 0,10.
Loai sai lam (Types of Errors): Sai lam pham phai trong viec t choi H0 khi no ung
c goi la Sai lam loai I (type I error). Sai lam loai II (type II error) la sai lam pham phai
trong viec khong t choi H0 khi no sai. Xac suat cua viec pham phai sai lam loai II c
ky hieu bang .

ung
Hanh ong
co the thc
hien

Khong t choi
H0
T choi H0

ieu kien cua H0

Sai

Hanh ong ung

Sai lam loai II

Sai lam loai I

Hanh ong ung

3.7 Tnh so TKK (Calculation of the Test Statistic): T so lieu cua mau, tnh 1 gia tr cua
so TKK va so no vi cac vung t choi va khong t choi a c ch ro.
3.8 Quyet nh thong ke (Statistical Decision) : bao gom viec t choi hoac khong t choi
H 0.
H0 b t choi neu gia tr cua so TKK nam trong vung t choi, va khong b t choi neu
gia tr cua so TKK nan trong vung khong t choi.
3.9 Ket luan (Conclusion) : Neu H0 b t choi, chung ta ket luan la HA ung. Neu H0
khong b t choi, chung ta ket luan la H0 co the ung.
4. Muc ch cua Kiem nh Gia Thuyet
Muc ch cua KGT la nham giup cho cac CBYT phu trach quan tr, lam
sang va cong ong ra c cac quyet nh (da tren cac quyet nh mang tnh thong ke).
Neu H0 b t choi, CBYT co the a ra nhng quyet nh phu hp vi HA. Neu H0 khong
b t choi, quyet nh a ra co the se khong theo HA, hoac quyet nh phai thu thap
them so lieu (e nghien cu tiep). Can lu y la ket qua cua phep kiem thong ke ch la 1
phan bang chng co anh hng en quyet nh e ra. Quyet nh mang tnh thong ke
khong nen c xem la cai g xac quyet ma can c can nhac cung vi cac thong tin sat
hp khac hien co.

40

II. KGT VE MOT TRUNG BNH DAN SO

1. Lay mau t cac dan so PP. Bnh thng
Th du: Tuoi cua 1 dan so PP. Bnh thng vi phng sai bang 20. Co the ket luan
la tuoi trung bnh cua dan so nay khong phai la 30 khong, neu lay mau ngau nhien n
gian n = 10 va tnh c trung bnh mau la 27?.
Co the ket luan la tuoi trung bnh cua dan so khong phai la 30 neu chung ta co the t choi
gia thuyet trong ve trung bnh dan so bang 30.
a/ So lieu: Mau ngau nhien n gian
n = 10
x = 27
b/ Gia nh: Mau c rut ra t dan so PP. Bnh thng vi 2 = 20
c/ Gia thuyet:
H0 = 30
Chon = 0,05
HA 30
d/ So TKK: v chung ta kiem nh gia thuyet ve 1 mot trung bnh dan so 2 ma dan so
nay
PP. Bnh thng 3vi phng sai biet trc nen so thong ke kiem nh la
x 0
z =
/ n
e/ Phan phoi cua so TKK
PP. cua so TKK se la PP. Bnh thng chuan neu H0 ung.
f/ Qui tac quyet nh: T choi H0 neu gia tr tnh c cua so TKK nam trong vung t
choi, va khong t choi H0 neu gia tr tnh c cua so TKK nam trong vung khong t
choi.
Cach xac nh vung t choi va vung khong t choi: H0 se sai neu < 30 hoac > 30. Nh
vay, cac gia tr u nho (so vi 30) hoac u ln (so vi 30) cua so TKK se giup chung ta
t choi H0, va chnh cac gia tr nay cau tao nen vung t choi. Gia tr nh the nao se c
xem la u nho hoac u ln? Cau tra li tuy thuoc vao ngng co y ngha thong ke (xac
suat cua viec pham sai lam loai I) ma chung ta a chon.
Xac suat e t choi H0 khi no ung a chon la = 0,05. V vung t choi trong trng hp
nay bao gom 2 phan: 1 phan cha cac gia tr u ln, va 2 phan cha cac gia tr u nho nen
se c chia lam 2. /2 = 0,025 la xac suat i kem vi cac gia tr u ln, va /2 = 0,025
la xac suat i kem vi cac gia tr u nho.
Gia tr ti han (Critical value) cua so TKK
Khi H0 ung, gia tr cua so TKK phai ln en mc nao e xac suat tm c mot gia tr
ln bang hoac ln hn no la 0,025.
Noi cach khac, gia tr nao cua z nam pha ben phai ni chiem 0,025 dien tch di ng
cong PP. Bnh thng chuan?
Gia tr cua z nam pha ben phai ni chiem phan dien tch 0,025 di ng cong PP.
Bnh thng chuan cung la gia tr chiem phan dien tch 0,975 (gia gia tr nay va ). Tra
bang e co gia tr nay bang 1,96.
Tng t, tra bang e tm thay gia tr 1,96, la gia tr cua so TKK nho en mc khi Ho
ung th xac suat e tm c gia tr nho bang hoac nho hn (gia tr nay) bang 0,025.

41

Vung t choi nh vay se bao gom tat ca cac gia tr ln bang hoac ln hn 1,96, hoac nho
bang hoac nho hn 1,96. Vung khong t choi bao gom tat ca cac gia tr nam gia 1,96
va 1,96.
Chung ta co the phat bieu qui tac quyet cho phep kiem nay nh sau: T choi H0 neu gia
tr tnh c cua so TKK 1,96 hoac 1,96. Ngoai ra, khong t choi H0.
Gia tr cua so TKK phan cach vung t choi va vung khong t choi c goi la gia tr ti
han cua so TKK, va vung t choi oi khi con goi la vung ti han

Vung khong
t choi H0

Vung t choi H0
2 = 0,025

-2,12

-1,96

Vung t choi H0
2 = 0,025

1,96

g/ Tnh so TKK
3
= 2,12
1,4142
20 / 10
h/ Quyet nh thong ke: Theo qui tac quyet nh, chung ta co the t choi H0 v 2,12 nam
trong vung t choi. Chung ta co the noi rang gia tr tnh c cua so TKK co y ngha
thong ke ngng 0,05.

z =

27 30

i/ Ket luan: Trung bnh dan so khong bang 30.

Gia tr p (p values):
Thay v noi rang gia tr quan sat c cua so TKK co y ngha hoac khong co y ngha
thong ke, chung ta co the cho biet xac suat cu the cua viec tm c 1 gia tr ln bang
hoac ln hn gia tr cua so TKK (neu H0 ung) . o la phat bieu ve gia tr p. Trong th
du tren, gia tr p = 0,034 va co ngha la xac suat e tm thay 1 gia tr ln bang hoac ln
hn 2,12 theo ca 2 hng, khi H0 ung, bang 0,034. Gia tr 0,034 c tnh sau khi tra
bang va la xac suat e tm thay 1 gia tr z 2,12 (bang 0,017) hoac 1 gia tr z 2,12
(bang 0,017) khi H0 ung. p =0,017 + 0,017 = 0,0340.
nh ngha: Gia tr p cua 1 phep kiem nh gia thuyet la xac suat e tm thay, khi H0
ung, mot gia tr cua so TKK ln bang hoac ln hn (theo hng thch hp) gia tr (cua
so TKK) tnh c.
Gia tr p cua 1 phep kiem cung co the c xem la gia tr nho nhat cua ma theo o H0
co the b t choi. V qua th du tren, vi p = 0,034, chung ta co the chon gia tr cua nho
bang 0,034 va van co the t choi H0. Neu chon < 0,034, chung ta khong chac a co the
t choi c H0.
Nh vay: Neu gia tr p nho bang hoac nho hn , chung ta t choi H0. Neu gia tr p ln
hn , chung ta khong t choi H0.

42

Phep kiem nh gia thuyet 1 uoi (One-sided Hypothesis Tests)

Phep KGT co the la mot uoi khi tat ca vung t choi nam ve 1 pha (1 uoi) cua ng
bieu dien phan phoi.
Th du: (nh th du tren nhng vi ket luan muon tm la < 30). Bai giai sau ay ch trnh
bay nhng iem khac gia 2 th du.
c/ Gia thuyet:
30
< 30
H 0:
H A:
f/ Qui tac quyet nh: Vi = 0,05. Viec xac nh vung t choi va gia tr ti han nam ly
luan nh sau : cac gia tr u nho se gay t choi H0, nh vay vung t choi se cha cac gia
tr nho va nam uoi thap (lower tail). Toan bo se nam pha uoi nay. Tra bang thay
gia tr cua z nam pha ben trai ni chiem phan dien tch 0,05 di ng cong PP. Bnh
thng chuan la 1,645. Qui tac quyet nh : t choi H0 neu gia tr tnh c cua so TKK
nho hn hoac bang 1,645.

Vung khong
t choi H0

Vung t choi H0
= 0,05

-2,12

-1,645

h/ Quyet nh thong ke: T choi H0 v 2,12 < 1,645.

i/ Ket luan : Trung bnh dan so <30.

p = 0,017 < 0,05

Gia tr p: trong trng hp nay bang 0,017, v khi H0 ung, P(z 2,12) =
0,017.

2. Lay mau t dan so PP. Khong bnh thng + 2 khong biet + n nho
Th du: Chon ngau nhien 1 mau n =14 ngi, o BMI, x = 30,5 s = 10,6392
Co the ket luan la BMI trung bnh cua dan so chon mau khong phai la 35 khong?
a/ So lieu: So o BMI cua 14 ngi vi x = 30,5.
b/ Gia nh: 1 So o BMI trong dan so nay PP. Bnh thng,
2
Phng sai khong biet
3
Mau ngau nhien n gian
c/ Gia thuyet:
H 0:
= 35
H A:
35
at
= 0,05
d/ So TKK: V phng sai khong biet + n nho, nen so TKK la

43

t=

x 0
s/ n

e/ Phan phoi cua so TKK:

So TKK phan phoi theo t vi n1 = 14 1 = 13 df neu H0 ung.
f/ Qui tac quyet nh: Vi = 0,05, phep kiem 2 uoi vi moi uoi bang /2 = 0,025.
Gia tr t nam pha ben trai va ben phai cua dien tch 0,025 la 2,1604 va 2,1604.
T choi H0 neu gia tr tnh c cua so TKK ln hn hoac bang 2,1604 hoac nho hn
hoac bang 2,1604.

df = 13
Vung khong
t choi H0

Vung t choi H0
2 = 0,025

-2,1604

-1,58

Vung t choi H0
2 = 0,025

2,1604

g/ Tnh so TKK
t=

30,5 35
10,6392 / 14

4,5
= 1,58
2,8434

h/ Quyet nh thong ke: Khong t choi H0 v 1,58 nam trong vung khong t choi.
0,05 < p (t 1,58) < 0,10
i/ Ket luan: Trung bnh dan so co the bang 35.

Gia tr p: trong trng hp nay tra bang ch co the xac nh gia tr p bang 1 khoang.
Vi o t do bang 13, tm thay:

1,58 < 1,350

t0,90: 0,10
1,58 > 1,7709
t0,95: 0,05
Khi
H0 ung, xac suat e tm c mot gia tr cua t 1,58 bang 0,05 < P(t 1,58) < 0,10
V ay la phep kiem 2 uoi nen phai nhan hai, nh vay 0,10 < p < 0,20.
III. KGT VE HIEU CUA 2 TRUNG BNH DAN SO
KGT ve hieu cua 2 trung bnh dan so rat thng c dung e nh ro xem co the
ket luan c la 2 trung bnh dan so nay khong bang nhau hay khong. Gia thuyet lien
quan en trng hp so sanh nay thng c thiet lap nh sau:
H0: 1 2 = 0
H0: 1 2 0
H0: 1 2 0

HA: 1 2 0 (1 2)
HA: 1 2 < 0 (1 < 2)
HA: 1 2 > 0 (1 > 2)

44

1. Lay mau t cac dan so PP. Bnh thng + cac 2 biet

Th du chng minh: Cac nha nghien cu muon biet xem so lieu ma ho a thu thap
co cung cap u bang chng e ket luan la co s khac biet ve nong o uric acid/HT gia
tre bnh thng va tre co H/C Down khong. So lieu bao gom ket qua nong o trung bnh
uric acid/HT cua mot mau gom 12 tre co H/C Down la x1 = 4,5/100 ml va cua mot mau
khac gom 15 tre bnh thng la x 2 = 3,4/100 ml. c biet 12 = 1 va 22 = 1,5.
a. So lieu: (xem e bai)
b. Gia nh: So lieu bao gom 2 mau ngau nhien n gian oc lap vi nhau rut ra t 2 dan
so PP. Bnh thng vi 12 = 1 (dan so tre co H/C Down) va 22 = 1,5 (dan so tre bnh
thng).
c. Gia thuyet:
( 1 = 2 )
H0: 1 2 = 0
HA: 1 2 0 (1 2 )
d. So TKK
( x x 2 ) ( 1 2 ) 0
z = 1

12
n1

22
n2

e. PP. cua so TKK: khi H0 ung, so TKK se PP. Bnh thng chuan.
f. Qui tac quyet nh: at = 0,05. Cac gia tr ti han cua z la 1,96. T choi H0 tr phi
1,96 < ztnhc < 1,96
g. Tnh so TKK
(4,5 3,4) 0
1,1
=
z=
= 2,57
0,4282
1 1,5
+
12 15
h. Quyet nh thong ke: T choi H0 v 2,57 > 1,96
i. Ket luan: Hai trung bnh dan so nay khong bang nhau. Gia tr p = 0,0102.
2. Lay mau t cac dan so PP. Khong Bnh thng
Lay mau ln e ap dung Ly thuyet gii han trung tam va PP. Bnh thng chuan
3. Lay mau t cac dan so PP. Bnh thng + cac 2 khong c biet nhng gia
nh c la bang nhau + cac n nho
Th du chng minh: Mot nha nghien cu muon khao sat ban chat cua s huy hoai
phoi phoi cua ngi hut thuoc la xay ra trc khi phat trien kh phe thung nang. Co 3
ch so e o va so o cang ln chng to ton thng phoi cang nang. Mot ch so o c
x S = 17,5
1 mau 16 ngi hut thuoc la cho
sS = 4,4711
x NS = 12,4 sNS = 4,8492
1 mau 9 ngi khong hut thuoc la cho
Nha nghien cu muon ket luan (da tren c s cac so lieu nay) la noi chung, ngi hut
thuoc la b ton thng phoi nang hn ngi khong hut theo ch so nay.
a. So lieu: (Xem e bai)

45

b. Gia nh: So lieu bao gom 2 mau ngau nhien n gian oc lap rut ra t 1 dan so bao
gom ngi hut thuoc la va dan so kia bao gom ngi khong hut thuoc la. So o ch so huy
hoai phoi ca 2 dan so eu PP. gan nh bnh thng. Phng sai cua 2 dan so khong c
biet nhng c gia nh la bang nhau.
c. Gia thuyet:
H0: S NS
HA: S > NS
d. So TKK

t=

( x S x NS ) ( s NS ) 0

s 2p
n1

s 2p
n2

e. PP. cua so TKK: Khi H0 ung, so TKK se co PP. t vi (n1 + n2 2) o t do.

f. Qui tac quyet nh: at = 0,05. Gia tr ti han cua t la + 1,7139 (v can cac so
dng e phu nh H0). T choi H0 tr phi so TKK tnh c < 1,7139.
g. Tnh so TKK
15(4,4711) 2 + 8(4,8492) 2
2
2
Tnh s p
= 21,2165
sp =
15 + 8
(17,5 12,4) 0

= 2,6573
21,2165 21,2165
+
16
9
h. Quyet nh thong ke: T choi H0 v 2,6573 > 1,7139, ngha la 2,6573 nam trong vung
t choi.
i. Ket luan: Tren c s so lieu noi tren, chung ta ket luan rang ngi hut thuoc la co ton
thng nang hn ngi khong hut.
0,01 > p > 0,005 (v 2,500 < 2,6573 < 2,8073).
t=

4. Lay mau t cac dan so PP. Bnh thng + cac 2 khong c biet va khong bang
nhau + cac n nho
So TKK se la
( x 1 x 2 ) ( 1 2 ) 0
t=
s 2p s 2p
+
n1 n 2
vi cac gia tr ti han c tnh bang
trng hp hai uoi

t ' (1 / 2) =

w1t1 + w2t 2
w1 + w2

trng hp 1 uoi

t ' (1 ) =

w1t1 + w2 t 2
w1 + w2
46

IV. SO SANH CAP OI (Paired Comparisons)

Ky thuat thng dung e anh gia hieu qua ieu tr hoac phng phap thc nghiem
la ky thuat tan dung cac so o co c t cac mau khong oc lap. Viec KGT da tren
loai so lieu nay c goi la kiem nh so sanh cap oi (paired comparisons test).
Muc tieu cua kiem nh so sanh cap oi la nham loai tr toi a cac nguon bien thien
ngoai lai bang cach lam cho cac cap cang co nhieu bien so giong nhau cang tot.
Cac quan sat cap oi co the c lay bang nhieu cach: 1 Cung 1 oi tng c o trc
va sau khi can thiep, 2 Vat nuoi thuan chung, 3 Anh ch em sinh oi hoac anh ch em ruot,
4
Ngi co cung ac iem bam sinh (thuan tay trai chang han), .. ..
Thay v thc hien phan tch cac quan sat n le, chung ta dung di, la hieu cua 1 cap quan
sat lam bien so lien quan.
Khi n hieu cua mau tnh c t n cap so o (cau tao nen 1 mau ngau nhien n gian) rut
ra t 1 dan so cac hieu co PP. Bnh thng, th so TKK e KGT ve hieu Trung bnh
dan so, d la
d d0
s
s d = d sai so chuan cua PP. d
t=
sd
n
d

hieu cua TB mau

d hieu cua TB dan so theo H0

0

Khi H0 ung, so TKK se phan phoi t vi (n1) o t do.

Th du chng minh
Nham anh gia hieu qua cua 1 chng trnh ba an nang lng rat thap (VLCD Very
Low-Calorie Diet) tren phu n beo ph keo dai trong 12 tuan, 9 phu n c chon e tham
gia va trong lng trcsau cua ho c ghi nhan nh sau:
Trc
Sau

117,3 111,4 98,6

83,3 85,9 75,8

104,3 105,4 100,4 81,7

82,9 82,3 77,7 62,7

89,5
69,0

78,2
63,9

Cac nha nghien cu muon biet cac so lieu tren co giup ket luan la chng trnh nay co
hieu qua trong viec lam giam can phu n beo ph khong?

1. So lieu: Hieu cua trong lng (sau trc) cua 9 phu n

(di = sau trc) 34,0 25,5 22,8 21,4 23,1 22,7 19,0 20,5 14,3
2. Gia nh: Cac hieu tnh c cau tao nen 1 mau ngau nhien n gian rut ra t mot
dan so hieu PP. Bnh thng.
3. Gia thuyet:

H0 :
H A:

d 0
d < 0

neu lay hieu (trc sau), gia thuyet se at khac H0: d 0

HA:

d > 0

neu cau hoi ch nham chng minh la trong lng trc va sau co thay oi (khac nhau)
nhng khong can xac nh khac ra sao
H0: d = 0 HA:
d 0 ]

47

4. So TKK:

t=

d d0

sd

5. PP. cua so TKK: Khi H0 ung, so TKK se co PP. t vi (n1) o t do

6. Qui tac quyet nh: at = 0,05. Gia tr ti han cua t bang 1,8595. T choi H0 neu
t tnh c nho hn hoac bang gia tr ti han.

Vung khong
t choi H0

Vung t choi H0
= 0,05

-1,8595

-12,7395

7. Tnh so TKK:

n = 9, vi 9 di (hieu sau trc)

d i (34,0) + (25,5) + ...... + (14,3) 203,3

=
=
= 22,5889
n
9
9

d=

s d2 =
t=

df = n-1 = 9 1 = 8

(d i d ) 2 n d i2 ( d i ) 2 9(4818,69) (203,3) 2
=
=
= 28,2961
9(8)
n 1
n(n 1)

22,5889 0
28,2961 / 9

22,5889
= 12,7395
1,77314

8. Quyet nh thong ke: T choi H0 v 12,7395 nam trong vung t choi.

9. Ket luan: Co the ket luan la chng trnh VLCD co hieu qua.
p < 0,005 v 12,7395 < 3,3554.
Khoang tin cay cho d: KTC 95% cho d co the c thiet lap nh sau:

d t (1 / 2 ) s d

= 22,5889 2,3060 28,2961 / 9

22,5889 4,0888
26,68
18,50

V. KIEM NH GIA THUYET VE T LE MOT DAN SO

KGT ve t le cua mot dan so cung c tien hanh nh KGT ve trung bnh cua 1
dan so, khi kch thc mau u ln e co the ap dung ly thuyet gii han trung tam, so
TKK se la :
)
p p0
z=
p0 q0
n
ma khi H0 ung se PP. Bnh thng chuan.

48

Th du chng minh
Trong mot khao sat ve ngi nghien chch ma tuy 1 thanh pho ln, ngi ta tm thay 18
ngi b nhiem HIV trong 423 trng hp. Co the ket luan la co cha ti 5% ngi nghien
chch ma tuy trong dan so chon mau co HIV dng tnh khong?

) 18
= 0,0426
1. So lieu: So lieu thu thap t 423 ngi, trong o co 18 co HIV+, p =
423
)
2. Gia nh: PP. Mau cua p la PP. gan nh bnh thng theo ly thuyet gii han trung
tam.
3. Gia thuyet:
H 0:
p 0,05
H A:
p < 0,05
)
p p0
4. So TKK:
z=
p0 q0
n
5. PP. cua so TKK: Neu H0 ung, so TKK se co PP. gan nh bnh thng vi so
trung bnh bang 0.
6. Qui tac quyet nh: at = 0,05. Gia tr ti han cua z bang 1,645. T choi H0 neu
gia tr cua z tnh c 1,645.
7. Tnh so TKK:
0,0426 0,05
z=
= 0,70
(0,05)(0,95)
423
8. Quyet nh thong ke: Khong t choi H0 v 0,70 > 1,645
9. Ket luan: Trong dan so chon mau t le co HIV+ co the 5%.
VI. KIEM NH GIA THUYET VE HIEU CUA 2 T LE DAN SO
Trong trng hp H0 : p1 p 2 = 0 co ngha la hai t le dan so c gia thuyet la
bang nhau (ong t le). Co the dung 2 t le mau e tnh so c lng hp (pooled
estimate) cua ong t le theo H0 :
x + x2
p= 1
n1 + n 2
x1 va x2 la so thc the mang ac tnh co lien quan cua mau 1 va mau 2.
Sai so chuan :

) )
p1 p 2

So TKK :
z=

p(1 p) p(1 p)
+
n1
n2

)
)
( p1 p 2 ) ( p1 p 2 ) 0

) )
p1 p 2

se PP. gan nh bnh thng chuan neu H0 ung.

49

Th du chng minh: Trong 1 nghien cu ve cham soc dinh dng, ngi ta tm thay trong
so 55 benh nhan b cao huyet ap co 24 ngi ang an che o kieng muoi Na+. Trong 149
benh nhan khong b cao huyet ap co 36 ngi ang an che o kieng muoi Na+. Co the ket
luan la trong dan so chon mau t le benh nhan an che o kieng muoi Na+ nhom cao
huyet ap cao hn t le nay nhom khong cao huyet ap khong?
1. So lieu: (xem e bai)
2. Gia nh: cac benh nhan trong nghien cu thuoc cac mau ngau nhien n gian va oc
lap nhau.
hoac p H PH 0
3. Gia thuyet:
H0: p H PH
HA: PH > PH

hoac
+

p H PH > 0

p H : t le ngi an kieng muoi Na trong dan so cao huyet ap

p H : t le ngi an kieng muoi Na+ trong dan so khong cao huyet ap
)
)
( p1 p 2 ) ( p1 p 2 ) 0
z=
4. So TKK:
)

) )
p1 p 2

5. PP. cua so TKK: Neu H0 ung, so TKK se PP. gan nh bnh thng chuan.
6. Qui tac quyet nh: at = 0,05. Gia tr ti han cua z bang 1,645. T choi H0 neu z
tnh c ln hn 1,645
7. Tnh so TKK:
24
36
24 + 36
pH =
= 0,4364
pH =
= 0,2416
p=
= 0,2941
55
149
55 + 149
z=

(0,4364 0,2416)

= 2,71
(0,2941)(0,7059) (0,2941 + 0,7059)
+
55
149
8. Quyet nh thong ke: T choi H0 v 2,71 > 1,645
9. Ket luan: T le benh nhan an kieng muoi Na+ dan so cao huyet ap cao hn t le nay
dan so khong cao huyet ap (p = 0,0034).

VII. KIEM NH GIA THUYET VE T SO PHNG SAI CUA 2 DAN SO

Kiem nh T so Phng sai (Variance Ratio Test) c s dung e so sanh 2 phng
sai cua 2 dan so. Khi kiem nh xem 2 phng sai dan so co bang nhau hay khong th
cung co ngha la chung ta kiem nh xem t so cua chung co bang 1 hay khong.
s12 / 12
Khi mot so gia nh c thoa, t so 2 2 se co phan phoi F vi (n 1) o t do t so
s2 / 2
va (n 2) o t do mau so. Neu gia thuyet rang 12 = 22 va neu gia thuyet nay ung
th

s12
s12
se
cu
n
g
co
pha
n
pho
i
F.
T
so
c goi la V.R (t so phng sai Variance
s 22
s 22

Ratio).
Th du chng minh: Mot nha nghien cu khao sat nhng thay oi ve ieu hoa than nhiet
benh nhan b adenoma tuyen nao thuy. Mot mau gom 12 benh nhan co LC cua can
nang la 21,4 kg. Mot mau chng gom 5 ngi bnh thng cho LC cua can nang la 12,4.
50

Nha nghien cu muon biet xem lieu mnh co the ket luan la can nang cua cac benh nhan
bien thien nhieu hn can nang cua ngi bnh thng khong?
1. So lieu: (xem e bai)
2. Gia nh: Cac mau ngau nhien n gian va oc lap vi nhau. Can nang cua ca hai
dan
so eu PP. gan nh bnh thng.
3. Gia thuyet:
2
2
2
2
H 0 : P C
H A : p > c
4. So TKK:

s P2
V.R. = 2
sC
5. PP. cua so TKK: Khi H0 ung, so TKK se co phan phoi F vi (nP 1) o t do t
so va (nC 1) o t do mau so.
6. Qui tac quyet nh: at = 0,05. Gia tr ti han cua F (tra bang) bang 5,91. T choi
H0 neu V.R. 5,91.

Vung khong
t choi H0

2,98

Vung t choi H0
= 0,05

5,91

7. Tnh so TKK:

V .R =

(21,4) 2
= 2,98
(12,4) 2

8. Quyet nh thong ke: Khong the t choi H0 v 2,98 < 5,91.

9. Ket luan: Can nang cua dan so benh nhan khong chac bien thien nhieu hn dan so
ngi bnh thng. p > 0,10.
---------------------------------------------------------

51

Bi 7 (TKYH)

PHN TCH PHNG SAI

(ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE/ANOVA)

I. GII THIU
ANOVA l k thut thng k c s dng khi chng ta mun so snh s trung bnh ca
3 nhm. K thut ny chia phong sai ca 1 quan st (observation) thnh 2 phn: 1phng
sai gia cc nhm (between groups) v 2phng sai ni nhm (within group). Do phong sai
l phn tn tng i ca cc quan st so vi s trung bnh nn vic phn tch phng sai
gip so snh cc s trung bnh d dng (bn cnh vic so snh cc phng sai).
Phn ny ch cp n ANOVA mt chiu (one-way ANOVA) theo cc nhm c
so snh da trn 1 bin s (yu t).

II. NGUYN L CA ANOVA

Th d minh ha: Thi gian nm vin ca cc bnh nhn c tiu phu khng c bin
chng c so snh vi nhau theo ba bc s iu tr (A, B, C). Chn 1 mu ngu nhin bao
gm 8 bnh n cho tng bc s, s liu nh sau:
Bng 1. Thi gian nm vin ca bnh nhn theo bc s iu tr
A
4
5
5
4
6
6
4
5

A2
16
25
25
16
36
36
16
25

B
4
5
4
3
4
5
3
3

B2
16
25
16
9
16
25
9
9

C
5
3
3
3
3
3
4
5

C2
25
9
9
9
9
9
16
25

A = 39
A = 4,875

A2 = 195

B = 31
B = 3,875

B2 = 125

C = 29
C = 3, 625

C2 = 111

X = 4,125
Bin s (yu t) so snh ch c nht l thi gian nm vin ca bnh nhn (tnh bng
ngy). S liu c phn b vi cc k hiu nh sau:

B/n ca BS. A:
B/n ca BS. B:
B/n ca BS. C:

x1A = 4, x2A = 5, .., x8A = 5

x1B = 4, x2B = 5, .., x8B = 3
x1C = 5, x2C = 3, .., x8C = 5

xij :

quan st th i thuc nhm j

X:
A, B, C :

i trung bnh (s trung bnh tnh c t 24 b/n)

s trung bnh ca cc nhm A, B, v C (tnh t 8 b/n ca mi nhm)
1

Chn x2A lm mu:

(x2A X ) = (5 4,125) = 0,875
Hiu 0,875 c th c tch ra lm 2:

(x2A X ) = (x2A A ) + ( A X ) = (5 4,875) + (4,875 4,125)

= (0,125) +
(0,750) = 0,875

Bin
thin
gia 1
quan st
thuc
nhm A
v i
trung
bnh

Bin
thin
gia 1
quan st
thuc
nhm A
v trung
bnh ca
nhm A

Bin thin gia

trung bnh ca
nhm A v i
trung bnh

ANOVA xem xt bin thin ca tt c cc quan st vi s i trung bnh v phn chng ra

lm 2: bin thin ni nhm v bin thin gia cc nhm. Nu s trung bnh ca cc nhm
khc nhau nhiu th s bin thin gia chng v i trung bnh (bin thin gia cc nhm)
s ng k hn so vi cc bin thin gia cc quan st trong 1 nhm vi trung bnh ca nhm
(bin thin ni nhm). Nu s trung bnh ca cc nhm khng khc nhau nhiu th bin thin
gia cc nhm s khng ln hn so vi bin thin ni nhm. Php kim nh gi thuyt v 2
phng sai, F test, c th c s dng kim nh t s phng sai gia cc nhm v
phng sai ni nhm. Gi thuyt trng ca F test cho rng 2 phng sai ny bng nhau; nu
H0 ng th c ngha l bin thin gia cc nhm s khng ln hn so vi bin thin ni
nhm. Trong tnh hung ny, khng th kt lun l cc trung bnh khc ln nhau (khng c 1
cp trung bnh no khc nhau). Ngc li, nu t chi c H0 th kt lun c l khng
phi tt c cc trung bnh u bng nhau (c t nht 1 cp trung bnh khc nhau).
III. CCH TNH TRONG ANOVA

+ Tnh phng sai gia cc s trung bnh nhm so vi i trung bnh:

c lng
phng sai gia
cc nhm

n j ( x j X )2
j 1

SSB
j 1

Trung bnh bnh phng

gia cc nhm (Mean square
between groups MSB)

Tng bnh phng gia

cc nhm (Sum of
Squares BetweenSSB)

+ Tnh phng sai gia cc quan st trong tng nhm so vi s trung bnh ca nhm:
c lng
phng sai ni
nhm

(n

(n

1) s
j

2
j

1)

SSW
N j

Tng bnh phng ni

nhm (Sum of Squares
Within SSW)

Trung bnh bnh phng ni

nhm (Mean square within
groups MSW)

+ Lp t s phng sai (VR = F ratio):

V.R =

MSB
MSW

IV. PHP KIM ANOVA

Vi th d minh ha trn: Thi gian nm vin ca b/n theo cc bc s A, B, C c khc nhau?

1/ S liu: bao gm 1 bin s lin tc (nh cho)
2/ Gi nh: + Thi gian nm vin (theo 3 BS) phn phi bnh thng.
+ Phng sai ca cc dn s (thi gian nm vin theo A, B, C) bng nhau
+ Cc mu c rt ngu nhin v c lp.
3/ Gi thuyt:
H0: A = B = C
HA: C t nht 1 cp khc nhau
(A B hoc B C hoc A C)
= 0,05
4/ S TKK:
V.R =

MSB
MSW

vi

j 1 df
N j df

5/ PP. cua so TKK: Khi H0 ung, so TKK se co phan phoi F vi (3 1) o t do t

so va (24 3) o t do mau so.

6/ Qui tac quyet nh: at = 0,05. Gia tr ti han cua F (tra bang) bang 3,47. T choi
H0 neu V.R. 3,47.
7/ Tnh s TKK : V.R =

Tnh

MSB =

MSB
MSW

2
SSB n j ( x j X )
MSB =
=
j 1
j 1

[8(4,875 4,125) 2 ] + [8(3,875 4,125) 2 ] + [8(3, 625 4,125) 2 ] 4,5 + 0,5 + 2, 0

=
= 3,5
3 1
2

Tnh M S W

(n

(n

1 ) s 2j
j

1)

SSW
N j

[(8 1) 0 , 8 3 4 5 2 ] + [(8 1) 0 , 8 3 4 5 2 ] + [(8 1) 0 , 9 1 6 1 2 ]

M SW =
24 3
MSW =

4,875 + 4,875 + 5,875

= 0, 74
21
V.R =

3,5
= 4, 73
0, 74

8/ Quyt nh thng k: T chi H0 v V.R = 4,73 >3,47

9/ Kt lun: C t nht 1 cp khc nhau. p = 0,021
Cch trnh by kt qu ANOVA

Bng 2. Kt qu so snh thi gian nm vin trung bnh ca b/n thuc cc BS iu tr A, B, C

Tng bnh phng
(Sum of Squares)

t do
(df)

7,000

Trung bnh
bnh phng
(Mean square)
3,500

15,625

21

0,744

22,625

23

Gia cc nhm
(Between groups)
Ni nhm
(Within groups)
Tng
(Total)

F
(V.R)

4,704

Gi
tr
p
0,021

V. K THUT HU KIM (Post hoc procedures)

Kt qu ca ANOVA khng cho bit cp no ca khc nhau. Vic tin hnh cc k

thut hu kim s gip kt lun v vic ny. Phn ny s gii thiu 2 php hu kim: Tukeys
HSD test (Honestly Significant Difference) s dng cho trng hp cc mu bng nhau, v
Scheff test s dng cho trng hp cc mu khng bng nhau.
1/ Tukeys HSD test

S TKK ca HSD:

HSD = Multiplierq ( a )

MSW
n

MSW: Trung bnh bnh phng gia cc nhm

a: s lng s trung bnh cn so snh
q: df ca MSW

Tnh s TKK:
+ Vi 3 s trung bnh cn so snh v 21 df (ca SMW) ngng = 0,05, tra bng
c multiplier (bi s) l khong 3,55;
+ MSW = 0,74;
+n=8
0, 74
HSD = 3,55
= 1, 08
8
Hiu gia 2 s trung bnh t nht phi bng 1,08 th mi c xem l c s khc bit c
ngha thng k ( ngng 0,05).
Nh vy:

A B = 4,875 3,875 = 1, 000

A = B

B C = 3,875 3, 625 = 0, 250

B = C

A C = 4,875 3, 625 = 1, 250

A C

Kt lun: Thi gian nm vin trung bnh ca b/n thuc BS. A khc c ngha thng k vi
thi gian nm vin trung bnh ca b/n thuc BS. C.
2/ Scheff test

S TKK:

F=

( X 1 X 2 )2
MSW (n1 + n2 ) / n1n2

Vi A v B :

(4,875 3,875) 2
F=
= 5, 41
0, 74(8 + 8) / 64

Vi B v C :

F=

(3,875 3, 625) 2
= 0,34
0, 74(8 + 8) / 64

Vi A v C :

F=

(4,875 3, 625) 2
= 8, 45
0, 74(8 + 8) / 64

Gi tr ti hn ca F c tnh bng cch ly s nhm tr 1 (3-1) ri nhn cho gi tr ti hn

ca F tnh c trong php kim ANOVA (4,73).
F (ti hn) = 2 x 3,47 = 6,94
S khc bit gia 2 s trung bnh c xem l c ngha thng k khi F tnh c ln hn
6,94. Nh vy ch c cp A v C tha iu kin ny. Kt lun tng t nh kt lun trong
Tukeys HSD test.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bai 8 (TKYH)

PHAN PHOI & PHAN TCH TAN SO

(Chi-Square Distribution & Analysis of Frequencies)
I.

GII THIEU

PP. 2 la mot ky thuat thong ke thng c s dung nhat e phan tch so lieu
dang so em hoac tan so.
Trong KGT, PP. 2 c s dung cho so lieu di dang tan so trong 3 trng hp:
+ Phep kiem tnh PP. Bnh thng (Test of goodness-of-fit
)
+ Phep kiem tnh oc lap (Test of independence)
+ Phep kiem tnh ong nhat (test of homogeneity)
Phan nay ac biet ch xem xet phep kiem tnh oc lap.
Tan so quan sat (Observed frequencies) va Tan so mong i (Expected frequencies)
So thong ke 2 thch hp nhat vi cac bien so nhom loai (categorical variables). Co hai
tap hp tan so c quan tam:
1
Tan so quan sat: la so oi tng hoac vat the thuoc mau nam trong cac nhom loai khac
nhau cua bien so. Th du: n = 100, trong o thay co 50 co gia nh, 30 ngi oc than, 15
ngi goa, va 5 ngi a li d.
2
Tan so mong i: la so oi tng hoac vat the thuoc mau ma chung ta mong i se
quan sat thay neu (mot so) gia thuyet trong (ve bien so) ung. Th du:H0 co the la trong
dan so ma ta rut mau bon nhom tnh trang gia nh eu co t le bang nhau, ngha la
chung ta mong i se thay (mau n = 100) co 25 ngi co gia nh, 25 ngi oc than, 25
ngi goa, va 25 ngi a li d.
So TKK 2: So TKK cho cac phep kiem 2 la:
Oi: tan so quan sat thuoc nhom loai th i
(O E i )
X 2 = i

Ei

Ei: tan so mong i (vi ieu kien H0 ung)

cua nhom loai th i
Khi H0 ung, X2 co PP. 2 vi (r 1)(c 1) o t do.
c: so cot
r: so hang
ai lng X2 la so o mc o, trong ieu kien cho trc, tng ong gia cac cap tan so
quan sat va mong i. Khi Oi va Ei cang tng ong vi nhau th X2 cang nho, va khi
chung cang t tng ong vi nhau th X2 cang ln.

0,05
0

http://www.ebook.edu.vn

x2

 (O Ei ) 2
Qui tac quyet nh: ai lng i
se nho neu cac tan so quan sat va mong
Ei

i gan bang nhau, va se ln neu hieu cua chung ln. T choi H0 neu X2 ln hn hoac
bang gia tr cua X2 gia tr a chon.

II. PHEP KIEM TNH OC LAP (Tests of Independence)

Hai tieu chuan phan loai c xem la oc lap nhau neu phan phoi cua 1 tieu chuan
van khong oi cho du phan phoi cua tieu chuan kia co la g i na. Th du: neu cho rang
tnh trang kinh te-xa hoi va ni c tru (trong mot thanh pho) oc lap vi nhau, ta se mong
i tm thay t le bang nhau cua cac gia nh thuoc cac nhom tnh trang kinh te-xa hoi
thap, trung bnh, va cao tat ca cac khu vc cua thanh pho.
Cach tnh tan so mong i: tan so mong i, di gia thuyet trong cho rang 2 tieu chuan
phan loai oc lap vi nhau, c tnh cho tng o (cell) bang cach nhan tong cua hang (co
cha cell) vi tong cua cot (co cha cell) roi chia tch nay cho ai tong so n.
Th du chng minh: Muc ch nghien cu cua 1 nhom tac gia la nham khao sat gia
thuyet cho rang phu n nhiem HIV ong thi vi nhiem Papilomavirus (HPV) se co nhieu
kha nang co cac bat thng ve mat te bao co t cung hn phu n ch nhiem 1 hoac
khong nhiem loai virus nao. So lieu sau ay do nha nghien cu cung cap,
HIV
HT+, TCLS+

HT+, TCLS

Dng tnh
Am tnh

23
10

Tong

33

HPV

HT

Tong

04
14

10
35

37
59

18

45

96

Nha nghien cu muon biet lieu ho co the ket luan la co moi lien he gia tnh trang nhiem
HPV va cac giai oan nhiem HIV khong?
1. So lieu: (xem e bai)
2. Gia nh: Mau hien co e phan tch tng ng vi 1 mau ngau nhien n gian rut ra
t dan so co lien quan.
3. Gia thuyet:
H0: Tnh trang nhiem HPV va cac giai oan nhiem HIV oc lap vi nhau
HA: Hai bien so nay khong oc lap vi nhau (Tnh trang nhiem HPV va cac giai
oan nhiem HIV khong oc lap vi nhau)
at = 0,05

 (Oi Ei ) 2

Ei
i =1

2
5. PP. cua so TKK: Khi H0 ung X co phan phoi gan nh 2 vi
(r 1)(c 1) = (2 1)(3 1) = 2 o t do
6. Qui tac quyet nh: T choi H0 neu gia tr X2 tnh c bang hoac ln hn 5,991.
7. Tnh so TKK:
Tan so mong i cua o th nhat c tnh bang (33 x 37)/96 = 12,72. Cac o khac c
tnh tng t

X2 =

4. So TKK

HPV

HT , TCLS
23 (12,72)
10 (20,28)
33

Dng tnh
Am tnh

X2 =

HIV
HT , TCLS
4 (6,94)
14 (11,06)
18
+

HT
10 (17,34)
35 (27,66)
45

Tong
37
59
96

(Oi Ei ) 2 (23 12,72) 2 (4 6,94) 2

(35 27,66) 2
.....
+
+
+
=

12,72
6,94
27,66
Ei
i =1

= 8,30805 + 1,24548 + .. ..+ 1,94778 = 20,60081

8. Quyet nh thong ke: T choi H0 v 20,60081 > 5,991
9. Ket luan: Co moi lien quan gia tnh trang nhiem HPV va cac giai oan nhiem HIV.
p < 0,005.
Trng hp tan so mong i nho: Theo Cochran:
+ oi vi cac bang cheo (contingency table) co > 1 o t do, gia tr cua tan so mong
i nho nhat cho phep la bang 1 vi ieu kien khong co > 20% so o co tan so mong
i < 5. e thoa c ieu kien nay, ngi ta thng phai don cot hoac hang lai.
+ oi vi trng hp PP. 2 vi < 30 o t do, co the chap nhan gia tr cua tan so
mong i nho bang 2.
TRNG HP BANG CHEO 2 X 2
Tieu chuan phan
loai th hai
1
2
Tong

Tieu chuan phan loai th nhat

1
2
a
b
c
d
a+c
b+d

Tong
a+b
c+d
n

X2 co the c tnh bang cach on gian hn:

n(ad bc) 2
X2 =
(a + c)(b + d )(a + b)(c + d )
a, b, c, d: tan so quan sat cua cac o. Phan phoi 2 nay co (r 1)(c 1) = 1 o t do.
8

Trng hp tan so mong i nho cua bang 2 x 2: Cochran cho rang khong nen dung
phep kiem 2 neu
+
n < 20 hoac
+ 20 < n < 40 + co tan so mong i < 5
Khi n 40, co the chap nhan 1 tan so mong i nho bang 1.
ieu chnh Yates (Yatess correction)
Cac tan so quan sat trong bang cheo la bien so ri, nhng lai a en PP. mau X2 co
PP. lien tuc. ieu chnh Yates la cong cu e ieu chnh s viec nay cho trng hp bang
2 x 2. Viec ieu chnh c tien hanh bang cach lay gia tr tuyet oi cua ai lng
1
tong so cac quan sat trc khi bnh phng. Khi nay,
\ad bc\ tr cho
2
n(\ ad bc \ 0,5n) 2
X2 =
(a + c)(b + d )(a + b)(c + d )
Ghi chu: Trong cac software ve TKYH, ket qua X2 cua test of independence thng c
trnh bay di dang ket qua cua Pearson (lay theo ten Karl Pearson, mot trong nhng
ngi a phat trien phep kiem 2).

III. FISHER EXACT TEST

Trong trng hp bang 2 x2, khi cac ieu kien ve c mau khong c thoa th Fisher
Exact Test co the la mot la chon thay the.
Sap xep so lieu: khi dung Fisher Exact Test, can sap xep so lieu trong bang 2 x 2 theo
cach sao cho A > B va chon ac iem co lien quan sao cho a/A > b/B

Mau

Co ac iem
lien quan

Khong co ac iem
lien quan

Tong

Aa

Bb

Tong

a+b

A+Bab

A+B

Gia nh:
1/ Mau A lay t dan so 1 va mau B lay t dan so 2.
2/ Cac mau eu ngau nhien va oc lap.
3/ Moi quan sat co the c nhom loai thanh 1 trong 2 loai oc lap ho tng.
So TKK: So TKK la b, so lng nam trong mau 2 co mang ac iem lien quan.
Qui tac quyet nh:
T choi H0 khi b hien co bang hoac nho hn gia tr ti han (tng ng vi ngng co y
ngha thong ke).
-----------------------------------------------------------

Bi 9 (TKYH)

TNG QUAN TUYN TNH

(Linear correlation)
I. GII THIU
Phn tch tng quan (Correlation) l k thut rt thng dng trong thng k y hc
nhm kho st mi lin quan gia 2 bin s o trn cng cc i tng thng qua h s tng
quan (correlation coefficient). C nhiu loi h s tng quan (HSTQ) nhng bi ny ch
trnh by h s tng quan r ca Pearson (Pearson r correlation coefficient). Pearson r l s
o mi lin quan tuyn tnh ca 2 bin s, v c s dng khi 2 bin s thuc thang o
lng t s hoc thang khong.
II. CCH TNH v C IM CA PEARSON r
tnh c Pearson r, cn phi o dc 2 bin s, x v y th d, chiu cao (x) v
cn nng (y). Cc s o ny phi c ly thnh cp i vi tng thnh vin ca 1 mu ngu
nhin n gin rt ra t 1 dn s.
Cng thc tnh:

r=

xy
x y
2

C IM:
+ Gi tr ca Pearson r nm trong khong 1 n +1.
Mt HSTQ bng 1 cho thy 2 bin s c mi lin quan nghch chiu tuyt i
(perfect negative relationship)
(lin quan nghch chiu: x tng, y gim; x gim, y tng).
Mt HSTQ bng +1 cho thy 2 bin s c mi lin quan thun chiu tuyt i.
(perfect positive relationship)
(lin quan thun chiu : x tng, y tng; x gim, y gim)
Mt HSTQ bng 0 cho thy khng c mi lin quan gia 2 bin s.
+ Gi tr tnh c ca Pearson r khng ph thuc vo cc n v ca x v y.
+ Gi tr ca Pearson r b nh hng rt nhiu bi gi tr cc (ging nh LC).
+ Gi nh c bn ca Pearson r l mi lin quan gia 2 bin s l mi lin quan tuyn tnh.
Do vy, vic dng cc biu phn tn (scatter diagram) vi x trc ngang v y trc dc
ca th s gip nh gi mi lin quan gia 2 bin s. Nu cc im (trn th) nm st
1 ng thng hng cho ln trn hoc cho xung di th 2 bin s c xem l c mi
lin quan tuyn tnh, v vic s dng Pearson r l hon ton thch hp.
A

Hnh 1. Scatter plot v correlation. A: r = +1; B: r = 0,7; C: r = 0,9; D: r =0,4; E: r = 0,0; F: r = 0,0

10

III. KIM NH GI THUYT V PEARSON r

Pearson r l s thng k tnh c t 1 mu rt ra t 1 dn s c h s tng quan
(c l rho). Khi tnh r, chng ta quan tm n vic tm hiu xem ra sao, v iu ny c
thc hin qua php kim nh ga thuyt v .
H0: = 0
HA: 0

0
<0

0
>0
t=r

Dng s kim nh t s t (t ratio) khi trong H0 c s khng

1 1+ r
zr = ln
2 1 r

Dng s kim nh zr (Fisher Z transformation)

khi trong H0 l mt s bt k khng phi bng khng

n2
1 r2

Th d minh ha: Tm v kim nh mi lin quan gia thi gian nm vic (Length of Stay
LOS) v vin ph (Total charges) trn nhm b/n b ph phi v suy h hp (DRG 087).
B/n

LOS
(x)

Vph (USD)
(y)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

1
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4

6,507
8,771
6,971
7,405
11,290
8,944
11,133
4,304
6,702
12,143
5,867
11,061
9,494
10,920
14,917
8,222
10,566

B/n

18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

LOS
(x)

Vph (USD)
(y)

4
5
5
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
8
8
9
10
10
12

9,389
9,660
15,106
16,289
8,285
12,893
14,840
17,375
16,925
16,892
12,462
16,955
21,754
20,830
23,915
27,245
41,410

1/ S liu: (nh trn)

2/ Gi nh: 2 bin s LOS v vin ph cng bin thin trong 1 phn phi hp c dng phn
phi bnh thng (gi l PPBT nh bin bivariate normal distribution); mu
ngu nhin.

11

3/ Gi thuyt: H0: = 0
HA: 0

= 0,05

n2
1 r2
5/ Phn phi ca s TKK: phn phi t vi 32 df khi H0 ng v cc gi nh c tha.

4/ S TKK:

t=r

6/ Qui tc quyt nh: gi tr ti hn ca t 32 df i vi test 1 ui l 0,287. Nu t tnh

c ln hn 0,287 th t chi H0.
7/ Tnh s TKK: vi r = 0,88
n2
34 2
= 0,88
= 0,88(16,3) = 14,3
2
1 r
1 0.88
8/ Quyt nh thng k: T chi H0 v s TKK bng 14,3 (> 0,287).
9/ Kt lun: Trong dn s b/n ph phi v suy h hp (DRG 087), LOS v vin ph c mi
tng quan tuyn tnh vi nhau. p = 0,0001.
t=r

IV. CC GHI NH QUAN TRNG

+ Hai bin s c tng quan vi nhau khng nht thit phi c mi lin h nhn-qu
(khng th kt lun rng LOS lm tng vin ph.)
+ C mu ng vai tr quan trng trong tnh ton pearson r. r nh c th c ngha
thng k khi c mu ln, trong khi r ln c th khng c ngha thng k khi c mu
nh.
+ H s quyt nh (coefficient of determination) r2 l mt gi tr quan trng. r2 cho bit
bao nhiu phn thay i (bin thin) ca Y c qui l do X, v ngc li.
(Trong th d minh ha chng ta c r2=0,774 (0,88)2. C th kt lun l 77,4% cc
bin thin trong vin ph ca DRG 087 c gii thch l do LOS ca b/n).
H s quyt nh gip nh gi tt hn mnh ca mi lin h gia 2 bin s.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12

Bi 9b (TKYH)

HI QUI TUYN TNH

(Linear regression)
I. GII THIU
Phn tch hi qui (Regression) l k thut rt thng dng trong thng k y hc nhm
tin on gi tr ca mt c im khi bit gi tr ca mt c im khc. Nh vy, phn
tch hi qui ch gip tin on (hoc c lng) khi 2 bin s c mi tng quan kh tt.
S d gi l hi qui tuyn tnh v k thut ch gip o c cc mi lin quan tuyn tnh (theo
ng thng). S d gi l hi n bin (simple linear regression) v ch dng 1 bin s ny
(gi l bin s c lp independent variable hay bin s gii thch explanatory variable)
tin on (hay c lng) ra bin s kia (bin s ph thuc dependent variable). Trong
hi qui a bin multiple regression c nhiu hn 1 independent variable c s dng
tin on.
II. THIT LP PHNG TRNH HI QUI MU (Sample regression equation)
Phng trnh (pt) hi qui mu l pt c thit lp t s liu ca 1 mu (rt ra t dn s)
v s c suy din nh 1 pt hi qui cho dn s (nu thch hp).
Khi nim v ng thng va kht nht (line of best fit)
Ging nh trng hp vi Pearson r, gi nh quan trng nht trong hi qui tuyn tnh l 2
bin s c xem xt c mi lin quan tuyn tnh vi nhau. Ngha l mt ng thng c th
c s dng m t mi lin quan ny. Cng thc i s ca pt ng thng l:
y = a + bx
theo b l dc (slope) ca ng thng v a l im ct (intercept) ca ng thng vo
trc y.
dc cho bit s thay i trung bnh y c c khi x thay i. dc cng nhiu
(ng thng dng ng hn) th y cng thay i nhiu hn tng ng vi mi thay i ca
x, v mi tng quan ca 2 bin s cng mnh hn.
Gi tr ti im ct a cho bit gi tr trung bnh ca y khi x = 0.
y

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13

Vi 2 im bt k, rt d xc nh phng trnh ng thng. Tuy nhin, khi c nhiu

im hn ( 3 im), kh c th tm thy 1 ng thng i qua cc im ny cng 1 lc
ngoi tr khi c mi tng quan tuyt i 1. Nh vy, trong hi qui tuyn tnh, cn phi tm
mt ng thng va kht nht vi cc im. cng chnh l ng hi qui (regression
line).
Cng thc ca pt ng thng cho thy tng ng vi mi gi tr ca x, ch c 1 gi tr ca
Y, v y cng l php o chnh xc, ngha l khng c sai s. Trong thc t, hu ht cc
kho st v mi tng quan u khng chnh xc. Do vy, pt hi qui l ra nn c vit l:
y = a + bx + e
theo e (error) l sai s. Chnh iu ny tha nhn l pt tin on khng th gip tin
on y chnh xc tuyt i c. Nh vy, vi mt x cho trc, c th c nhiu hn mt y.
Th d chng minh:
x
Y
0
4
0
5
0
6
1
6
1
7
1
8
2
8
2
9
2
10

x
3
3
3
4
4
4
5
5
5

Y
10
11
12
12
13
14
14
15
16

Vi mi gi tr ca x bit trc, c 3 gi tr khc nhau ca y. Nh vy, ng hi qui khng

th i qua tt c cc im c ta (x, y).

ng thng trong th phn tn l ng va kht nht cho tt c cc im. Khong

cch gia cc im v ng hi qui tiu biu cho sai s (e) trong cng thc. Khong cch
gia cc im v ng va kht nht c tnh:

)
di = yi y

)
y l gi tr tin on c ca Y t x
l s trung bnh ca dn s (bao gm) cc Y c th c
tng ng vi mt x cho trc.
14

Tnh tng lch (t ng hi qui) bnh phng (sum of the squared deviations) o tng
va kht ca ng hi qui:
(Sum of Squared Errors)

)
SSE = di2 = ( yi y ) 2

ng hi qui i qua cc s trung bnh ca cc gi tr Y c thc (observed) tng ng

vi x cho trc.

Phng trnh hi qui mu

Pt hi qui mu c th c vit nh sau:
)
)
Y = 0 + 1 x
Y l gi tr c lng c ca Y cho bi ng hi qui
)
0 l hng s ch ni ng hi qui ct trc Y, v c
lng gi tr trung bnh ca Y khi x=0
)
1 l s c lng dc, cho bit s thay i trung
bnh ca Y i km vi 1 s thay i x.
)
)
0 v 1 u c suy din cho h s hi qui dn s (thay i t mu ny qua mu khc).

Cng thc tnh:

1 = xy / x 2

0 = Y 1 x

15

Th d minh ha
b/n

Cao (inches)
60
1
60
2
62
3
62
4
62
5
64
6
66
7
68
8
68
9
572
Total
x = 63,6
sx = 3,13

X2

Y2

XY

Cn nng (lbs)
135
120
140
130
135
145
150
150
160
1.265
y = 104,6
sy = 12,1

3.600
3.600
3.844
3.844
3.844
4.096
4.356
4.624
4.624
36.432
2
X = 36.432
x 2 = 78, 2

18.225
14.400
19.600
16.900
18.225
21.025
22.500
22.500
25.600
178.975
2
Y = 178.975
y 2 = 1.172, 2

8.100
7.200
8.680
8.060
8.370
9.280
9.900
10.200
10.880
80.670
XY = 80.670
xy = 272, 2

Pearson r = 0,973
)
)
1 = xy / x 2
0 = Y 1 x
= 272,2/78,2
= 140,6 3,48(63,3)
= 3,48
= 80,7
Nh vy, tin on trng lng t chiu cao, pt hi qui l:

)
Y = 80, 7 + 3,84 X
III. KIM NH GI THUYT

Trc khi s dng pt hi qui tin on, cn phi tin hnh kim nh xem
dc ca ng hi qui (thuc dn s) c khc khng (zero) hay khng.
Kim nh H0: 1 = 0 vi s TKK t (t statistic)

+ S liu: (s dng th d minh ha)

+ Gi nh: 1 i vi mi gi tr ca X c 1 tiu dn s (cc gi tr) Y. Cc tiu dn s Y
phn phi bnh thng
2
Cc tiu dn s Y c phng sai bng nhau
3
S trung bnh ca cc tiu dn s Y cng nm trn 1 ng thng
4
Cc gi tr ca Y c lp v mt thng k.
+ Gi thuyt
H0: 1 = 0
HA: 1 0
= 0,05
+ S TKK:
)
t = 1 / ( s yx / x 2 )
+ Phn phi ca s TKK: PP. t vi df = n2 khi H0 ng v cc gi nh c tha.
+ Qui tc quyt nh: gi tr ti hn ca t 7 df bng 2,365.

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16

+ Tnh s TKK:

Standard error

syx = sy 1 r 2 =12,1 1 0,808 =5,30

t = 3, 48 / (5,30 / 78, 2) = 3,84 / 0, 60

= 5,84
+ Quyt nh thng k: T chi H0 v s TKK bng 5,84 (> 2,365).
+ Kt lun: dc ca ng hi qui khng phi bng zero.
Kim nh H0: 1 = 0 vi s TKK F (F statistic)

Dng ANOVA vi s TKK l t s phng sai V.R.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

17

Bi 10 (TKYH)

PHP KIM PHI THNG S

(Non-parametric tests)
I. GII THIU
K thut kim nh thng k c thng s (parametric tests) thng i hi 1 s gi
nh (assumptions) v dn s c kho st, c bit nht l tnh phn phi bnh thng, bin
s c o thang khong (interval) hoc thang t s (ratio), v mu ngu nhin v c lp.
Ngc li, k thut kim nh phi thng s khng i hi gi nh v tnh phn phi bnh
thng ca dn s (do vy cn c gi l php thng k phn phi t do distribution-free
statistics).
K thut kim nh phi thng s c th c s dng phn tch s liu v dn s o
lng thang nh danh, thang th t, thang khong, v/hoc thang t s. K thut ny cng
c s dng khi c mu nh ( 30) hoc khi c nhiu gi tr cc trong tp hp s liu. c
bit, k thut c s dng khi dng phn phi ca dn s kho st khng c bit hoc
c bit l phn phi khng bnh thng.
K thut kim nh phi thng s c th c s dng kim nh gi thuyt v:
+ Mi lin quan gia cc bin s
+ Mi lin quan gia cc bin s trong cc mu cp i (paired samples)
+ Mi lin quan gia cc bin s trong hai mu c lp
+ Mi lin quan gia cc bin s trong 3 mu lp.
II. PHP KIM CHI-SQUARE (B sung)
1/ H s Phi (Phi coefficient)
o mnh ca mi lin quan gia 2 bin s (trong php kim Chi-square) trong
bng 2x2

= 2 / n
H s Phi cng c din t nh h s tng quan Pearson r, nhng ch bin thin
trong khong 0 n 1.

2/ H s Cramrs V
o mnh ca mi lin quan gia 2 bin s (trong php kim Chi-square) trong
bng ln hn bng 2x2
Cramrs V = 2 / N (m 1)
m : s nh hn trong s hng hoc ct ca bng RxC

ca 2.

H s Cramrs V bin thin t 0 n 1. Ngng c ngha thng k cng ging nh

18

III. McNEMAR TEST

L mt bin th ca 2 test vi 1 t do. c s dng khi s liu dng cp i v

c o lng thang nh danh.
Cc gi nh ca McNemar test:
+ S liu dng nh phn.
+ Cc s o nh phn l nhng cp gi tr o c t cng 1 i tng hoc i tng
c bt cp (matched pairs).
+ Cc lp nh phn c lp h tng vi nhau (mutually exclusive).
+ S liu trong cc (celss) ca bng l s cp m c.
Th d minh ho: Nh nghin cu mun so snh thi ca hc vin trc khi ghi danh
v sau khi tt nghip kho trung cp chuyn nghip v Qun l thng tin sc kho (HIM). 50
hc vin c ngh tr li bng kho st v thi thi im trc khi ghi danh v
thi im 1 tun sau khi tt nghip. Cc tr li c ghi nhn l tch cc hoc tiu cc (nh
phn).
Sau khi tt nghip
(+)

()

Tong

Dng tnh
Am tnh

38 (a)
02 (c)

05 (b)
05 (d)

43
07

Tong

40

10

50

Trc khi ghi danh

(a) = dng tnh trc v sau (khng i)

(c) = thay i t m sang dng tnh
(b) = thay i t dng sang m tnh
(d) = m tnh trc v sau (khng i)
Gi thuyt
H0 : thi trc ghi danh = thi sau tt nghip.
HA : thi trc ghi danh thi sau tt nghip.

Cng thc tnh s TKK McNemar 2 :

McNemar 2 = (b c 1)2/(b + c)
= (5 2 1)2/(5 + 2)
= 0,57
2
Gi tr ti hn ca vi = 0,05 01 t do l 3,841.
Khng th t chi H0 v s TKK nh hn gi tr ti hn. Gi tr p = 0,453
Khng c s thay i v thi ca hc vin thi im trc ghi danh v thi im
sau tt nghip.
IV. SPEARMAN RHO (The Spearman Rho Rank Order Correlation Coefficient)

Spearman rho test c s dng khi t nht 1 trong 2 bin s kho st c o lng
thang th t. H s tng quan tnh c t k thut Spearman rho l kt qu ca vic xp
hng cc s liu, m khng dng gi tr thc ca chng.

19

 tnh Spearman rho, chui thng k c xp hng t thp n cao. Cc gi tr bng

nhau (tied observations) c xp hng ngang nhau, tnh bng trung bnh cc th hng ca
chng. Th d :
Gi tr o c :
Xp hng(d kin) :

2
1

5
2

5
3

5
4

7
5

Xp hng (ng) :

Sau khi xp hng, hiu gia cc th hng ca bin s X v Y s c tnh, tng li, v
bnh phng ln, v c s dng tnh s TKK rrho

rrho = 1 [(6 D2)/n(n2 1)]

Spearman rho c bin thin v cch din t ging nh Pearson r.
Th d minh ho 1: Kho st trn 08 bnh nhn
S iu thuc ht

nng ca bnh

Hiu ca th hng

B/n

R1

R2

D(R1 R2)

D2

R1 : th hng ca tng b/n xt theo s iu thuc l ht, thp nht (=1), nhiu nht (=8).
R2 : th hng ca tng b/n xt theo nng ca bnh, nh nht (=1), nng nht (=8).
Gi thuyt :
H0 : Khng c mi lin quan gia s iu thuc ht v nng ca bnh.
HA : C mi lin quan gia s iu thuc ht v nng ca bnh.
Tnh Spearman rho:

rrho = 1 [(6 D2)/n(n2 1)]

= 1 [6 (24)]/[8(64 1)]
= 0,71
Kim nh Spearman rho ca dn s
S TKK : t = rho n 2 / 1 rho 2
= 0,71 6 / 1 0, 712
= 1,74/0,7
= 2,49
Vi 06 t do, = 0,05, gi tr ti hn ca t l 2,447.

20

T chi H0 v s TKK ln hn gi tr ti hn (2,49 > 2,447).

Kt lun : C mi lin quan thun chiu (c ngha thng k) gia s iu thuc l ht v

nng ca bnh.
Spearman rho test cng c s dng trong trng hp c 1 bin s thang khong. Tuy
nhin, cc gi tr ca bin s ny phi c chuyn thnh th hng trc khi tnh ton.
X

Hiu ca th hng

B/n

R1

8,5

135

6,5

8,5

120

140

130

135

6,5

145

150

2,5

1,5

150

2,5

1,5

160

R2

D(R1 R2)

D2

V. SIGN TEST

Thng c s dng nh gi s liu dng cp i (matched pairs) ca 1 mu kho

st. Sign test khng i hi dn s kho st phi phn phi bnh thng. Gi thuyt trng ca
sign test c pht biu:
P(Xi > Yi) = P(Xi < Yi) = 0,5
Trong 1 cp, ly Xi tr cho Yi. Nu Yi nh hn Xi, du ca hiu s s l du cng (+), v nu
Yi ln hn Xi, du ca hiu s s l du tr (). Nu s trung v hiu bng 0, s du (+) v s
du () 2 bn s trung v s bng nhau. Nh vy, gi thuyt trng c th c pht biu :
H0 : P(+) = P() = 0,5
S TKK l S v bng s du (+) m c trong cc hiu tnh c t cc cp.
Nu H0 ng, S c phn phi nh phn vi n v p=0,5.
p(S=x) = Cxn (0,5) x (0,5) n x

21

Th d minh ha: Mt nhm nghin cu v rng mun bit liu vic hng dn chi rng
ng cch c mang li hiu qu g khng. 12 cp b/n n khm ti khoa Nha c chn k
cng bt cp vi nhau theo tui, phi, trnh hc vn, v im v sinh rng khm lc ban
u. Mt thnh vin ca mi cp c hng dn cch chi rng v nhng vn v sinh
rng khc. Su thng sau, 24 i tng c khm v chm im v sinh rng bi 1 nha s
khng h bit i tng no c hng dn. im v sinh rng thp cho thy tnh trng
v sinh rng cao.
im v sinh rng

Cp
s
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

c hng dn
(Xi)
1,5
2,0
3,5
3,0
3,5
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,5
2,0
3,0
2,0

Khng c hng dn
(Yi)
2,0
2,0
4,0
2,5
4,0
3,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,5
2,5
2,5

Gi thuyt
H0 : S trung v hiu bng zero [P(+) = P()]
HA : S trung v hiu l s m [P(+) < P()]
Tnh s TKK : vi np v n(1p) u ln hn 5, dng z test vi
z = S 0,5n 0,5

n = 11 (do c 1 hiu bng 0)

0,5 n

0,5 l h s iu chnh khi chuyn t PP. Nh phn sang PPBT.

Khi S <0,5n, dng +0,5 ; khi S > 0,5n, dng 0,5

10

11

12

Du
ca hiu

Cp

2 (0,5 x11) 0,5

= 1,809
0,5 11
P(z 1,809) = 0,0359 < 0,05 ()

z =

T chi H0 vi p = 0,035. Trung v hiu l s m.

Vic hng dn c hiu qu.

22

VI. MANN-WHITNEY WILCOXON TEST

Khi so snh cc mu c lp m cc gi nh c s dng students t test khng

tha th Mann-Whitney Wilcoxon test (Mann-Whitney U test) l la chn thay th. Trong test
ny, s trung v ca 2 dn s, X v Y, c so snh vi nhau. Test s dng cc th hng
(ranks) ca nhng gi tr o c t 2 mu v sp xp li nh trong 1 mu.
Trong Mann-Whitney U test, gi thuyt trng c pht biu:
H0: MX = MY
Th d minh ha: mt nh nghin cu thit k mt th nghim nhm nh gi tc dng ca
vic ht di lu cht Cadmium Oxide. Nh nghin cu s dng 15 con vt th nghim cho
nhm thc nghim v 10 con tng t lm nhm chng. Bin s c lin quan l nng
hemoglobin. Nh nghin cu mun bit liu c th kt lun rng vic ht di lu cadmium
oxide c lm gim nng hemoglobin.
Nng Hemoglobin (grams) ca 25 con vt th nghim
Nhm thc nghim (X)

Nhm chng (Y)

14,4
14,2
13,8
16,5
14,1
16,6
15,9
15,6
14,1
15,3
15,7
16,7
13,7
15,3
14,0

17,4
16,2
17,1
17,5
15,0
16,0
16,9
15,0
16,3
16,8

Gi thuyt:
H0: MX MY
HA: MX < MY

= 0,05

MX l s trung v ca dn s vt th nghim c cho ht cadmium oxide.

MY l s trung v ca dn s vt th nghim khng c cho ht cadmium oxide.

23

S liu ban u v th hng (Nng Hemoglobin (grams) ca 25 con vt th nghim)

X

Rank

13,7
13,8
14,0
14,1
14,1
14,2
14,4

1
2
3
4,5
4,5
6
7

15,3
15,3
15,6
15,7
15,9

16,5
16,6
16,7

Tng

Rank

15,0
15,0

8,5
8,5

16,0
16,2
16,3

15
16
17

16,8
16,9
17,1
17,4
17,5

21
22
23
24
25

10,5
10,5
12
13
14

18
19
20

180

145

Nu H0 ng, tng cc th hng s l 325 v s chia u cho 2 nhm (trng hp c mu

bng nhau tng th hng ca mi nhm l 325/2 (MX = MY) ;
hoc tng cc th hng ca X s ln hn tng cc th hng ca Y (MX > MY)
S TKK:

T= S

n(n + 1)
2

n: s mu X
S : tng s th hng thuc mu X
(S c th chn ty l ca X hoc Y)

Qui tc quyt nh: T chi H0 nu gi tr tnh c ca T nh hn gi tr ti hn (tra

c) n = 15, m =10, v = 0,05.
= 45
Tnh T:

T = 145

15(15 + 1)
= 25
2

T chi H0. Vic ht cadmium oxide ko di lm gim nng hemoglobin.

0,005 > p > 0,001.

24

Trng hp n hoc m ln hn c mu trong bng tra ( > 1520), chuyn sang z:

z=

T mn / 2
nm(n + m + 1) /12

(z =

25 150 / 2
= 2, 78 )
150 (26 ) / 12

P(z < -2,78) = 0,0027

Cc vng t chi ca Mann-Whitney test theo gi thuyt

25

VII. KRUSKAL-WALLIS TEST

Khi so snh cc mu c lp m cc gi nh c s dng One-way ANOVA test

khng tha th Kruskal-Wallis l la chn thay th. Kruskal-Walis test i hi cc mu phi
c lp lp v c 3 nhm (k 3). Trong test ny, s trung v ca cc dn s c so snh
vi nhau. Test s dng cc th hng (ranks) ca nhng gi tr o c t cc mu v sp xp
li nh trong 1 mu.
Trong Kruskal-Wallis test, gi thuyt trng c pht biu:
H0: M1 = M2 = M3 = = Mn
Th d minh ho: Tc dng ca 2 loi thuc trn thi gian phn ng /v mt kch thch nht
nh c kho st trn 3 mu ng vt th nghim. Mu III l mu chng, mu I c cho
dng thuc A v mu II c cho dng thuc B trc khi p dng kch thch. Thi gian phn
ng c o bng giy. C th kt lun l c s khc bit v thi gian phn ng 3 dn s
i din bi 3 mu ng vt th nghim ny khng?
Thi gian phn ng 13 ng vt th nghim

Mu
I

II

III

17
20
40
31
35

8
7
9
8

2
5
4
3

Gi thuyt:
H0: S trung v ca 3 dn s u bng nhau
HA: C t nht mt cp s trung v (t 3 dn s ) khc nhau
= 0,01
Thi gian phn ng thay bng ranks

Mu
I

II

III

9
10
13
11
12

6,5
5
8
6,5

1
4
3
2

R1= 55

R2 = 26

R3 = 10

26

S TKK:
2
k R
12
j
H=

3(n + 1)
n(n + 1) j =1 n j
k: s mu (kho st)
Rj: tng cc th hng trong mu th j
nj: s gi tr (o c) trong mu th j
n: tng s gi tr (o c) ca cc mu

Qui tc quyt nh: T chi H0 nu gi tr tnh c ca H ln n mc gi tr p tm thy nh

hn (0,01).
Gi thuyt trng hm rng tt c cc gi tr o c trong 3 mu hnh thnh nn 1 mu n
c n = 13 rt ra t 1 dn s n. Nu iu ny ng, cc th hng phi c phn phi kh
u trong 3 nhm, v iu mong i l tng (ton b) cc th hng s c chia trong 3
nhm theo t l ca c mu. S khc bit (khng ng u) nu c s c phn nh qua
ln ca H.
Tnh H:
(55) 2 (26) 2 (10) 2
12
+
+
3(13 + 1)
13(13 + 1) 5
4
4
= 10,68
Tra bng vi nj l 5, 4, v 4, xc sut tm thy gi tr ca H 10,68 th nh hn 0,009.

H=

T chi H0 ngng (c ngha thng k) 0,01.

C s khc bit v thi gian phn ng trong 3 dn s. p < 0,009.
Khi c 3 mu v mi mu c 5 gi tr, gi tr p (ca H tnh c) c tm ra bng cch tra
bng. Khi c > 5 gi tr trong 1 hay nhiu mu, H c xem nh phn phi 2 dng c bit
vi k1 t do.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

27

Bi 11 (TKYH)

HI QUI LOGISTIC
(Logistic Regression)
I. GII THIU
Hi qui logistic l mt k thut phn tch hi qui trong bin s ph thuc (Y) l
mt bin s nh phn (dichotomous binary variable), theo Y thng c m ho l 1 v
0 (Y = 1, thnh cng; Y = 0, tht bi). Bin s c lp trong hi qui logistic c th l bin s
ri hoc lin tc, bin s n hoc a bin s.
Phn ny ch trnh by nhng nguyn l v hiu bit c bn ca hi qui logistic.
II. M HNH HI QUI LOGISTIC
Phng trnh hi qui tuyn tnh:

y / x = 0 + 1 X

0 + 1

y / x l s trung bnh ca tiu dn s Y 1 X bit trc

0 l hng s ch ni ng hi qui ct trc Y, v c

lng gi tr trung bnh ca Y khi X = 0

1 l s c lng dc, cho bit s thay i trung
bnh ca Y i km vi 1 s thay i x.
bin thin t n +

Khi Y l bin s nh phn, phng trnh trn khng s dng c v gi tr mong i

(s trung bnh) ca Y l xc sut Y = 1 vi gii hn bin thin l t 0 n 1.
Nu t p = P(Y=1) th t s (p/1p) c th bin thin trong khong 0 n + . Ngoi
ra, logarithm t nhin (ln) ca p/(1-p) c th bin thin trong khong n + . Nh vy:
p
Ln
= 0 + 1 X (1)
1 p
(1) c gi l m hnh hi qui logistic v s chuyn dng ca y / x (hoc p)
thnh ln [p/(1p)] c gi l s chuyn dng logit (logit transformation).
(1) cng c trnh by nh sau:
p=

exp( 0 + 1 X )
1 + exp( 0 + 1 X )

exp: nghch o ca ln

III. HI QUI LOGISTIC VI BIN S C LP NH PHN

S dng bng 2x2 vi s TKK l T s chnh (Odds Ratio).

28

IV. HI QUI LOGISTIC VI BIN S C LP LIN TC

Th d minh ho: Xc nh mi tng quan gia tui v nng Cholesterol ton
phn (TC) thc hin trn cng ng ngi M gc M La tinh (Hispanic Americans), v da
trn tin on kh nng ca 1 ngi Hispanic American c nng TC 240 nu bit
trc tui ca ngi .
Hispanic Americans vi nng TC 240 mg% phn b theo Tui
Nhm tui (nm)

S c khm (ni)

25 34
35 44
45 54
55 64
65 74

S c TC 240 (ni1)

522
330
344
219
114

41
51
81
81
50

Bin s c lp l bin s lin tc (Tui). Do khng c s liu v tui ca tng c nhn nn

vic phn tch
Bin s ph thuc l bin s nh phn (TC 240 v TC < 240).
Kt qu: 0 = 4, 04
PT. Hi qui:
trong

1 = 0, 06
y = 4, 04 + 0, 06 x
i
y = ln(n / n )
ni1: s ngi trong nhm tui th I c TC 240
i
i1
i2
ni1 + ni2 = ni

Kim nh gi thuyt H0: 1 = 0 cho kt qu p < 0,0001 (Chisquare test vi 1 df)

Kt lun: Phng trnh hi qui thch hp s dng.
S dng hi qui logistic tin on: tm xc sut 1 Hispanic American tui 29,5 c
TC 240.
p=

exp[4, 04 + (0, 06)(29,5)]

= 0, 087
1 + exp[4, 04 + (0, 06)(29,5)]

V. HI QUI LOGISTIC VI A BIN S C LP RI

M hnh hi qui logistic (vi 3 bin s c lp ri discrete independent variables)

PX =

1
1 + exp[ ( 0 + 1 X 1 + 2 X 2 + 3 X 3 )]

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29

Bi 12 (TKYH)

PHNG PHP C BN CA
PHN TCH THI GIAN SNG
(Basic methods for Survival Analysis)
I. GII THIU
Trong cc nghin cu th nghim lm sng, nh nghin cu c th mun theo di tin
trin ca bnh nhn (b/n) t 1 thi im nht nh no (nh thi im tin hnh phu thut
hoc bt u 1 ch iu tr) n khi xy ra cc bin c c xc nh r (nh t vong hoc
triu chng ca bnh chm dt).
Th d: mt nghin cu c tin hnh trn nhng ngi b nhi mu c tim
(NMCT) ln th nht nhm nh gi hiu qu ca 2 loi thuc phng chng cn NMCT ln
th hai. Nghin cu c tip tc cho n khi mi bnh nhn (trong mu nghin cu) tri qua
1 trong 3 bin c sau: 1 c cn NMCT ln th hai (bin c c quan tm),
2
mt theo di v 1 s l do nh t vong khng do t qu tim, hoc di
nh i ni khc (vi ln gp cui cng khng c cn NMCT ln hai),
3
vn cn sng v khng c cn NMCT ln hai thi im chm dt
nghin cu.
Trn mi b/n trong mu nghin cu, nh nghin cu ghi nhn lng thi gian (tnh bng
thng, ngy, nm,) t lc bt u tham gia vo cuc nghin cu n khi tri qua 1 trong 3
bin c kt thc. Thi gian o c ny ca tng b/n c gi l thi gian sng (survival
time). Tp hp tt c cc thi gian sng o c trong nghin cu c gi l s liu v thi
gian sng (survival data).
S liu v thi gian sng bao gm 2 loi:
+ Loi ct (censored) bao gm cc s liu thu c t b/n mt theo di hoc b/n
vn cn sng v khng c cn NMCT ln 2;
+ Loi khng ct (uncensored) bao gm s liu thu c t b/n c cn NMCT ln 2
Vi nhng thng tin v 2 loi thuc phng chng cn NMCT (A v B), v thi gian
theo di ca tng b/n, v v tnh trng ct hoc khng ct ca tng b/n, chng ta c th
tnh c lng v so snh s trung v thi gian sng ca 2 nhm i tng nghin cu tr
li cu hi:
+ C th kt lun loi iu tr no (A hoc B) gip ko di thi gian (trung bnh) xy ra cn
NMCT ln 2? hoc
+ Xc sut (c lng) 1 b/n, b NMCT ln 1, dng thuc A sng c hn 3 nm (m
khng b NMCT ln 2) l bao nhiu?
Phng php thng k, s dng thng tin thu thp c t cc nghin cu tin cu
(follow-up studies), dng tr li nhng cu hi ny c gi l Phn tch thi gian sng
(Survival Analysis). Bi ny ch gii hn trong vic gii thiu phng php Phn tch thi
gian sng Kaplan-Meier (Kaplan-Meier survival analysis) v phng php ny rt thng
c s dng trong cc th nghim lm sng..
II. PHN TCH THI GIAN SNG KAPLAN-MEIER
Trong phn tch thi gian sng Kaplan-Meier (gi tt l phng php Kaplan-Meier),
bin s kt qu (ph thuc) phi dng nh phn (sng/cht, ci thin/khng ci thin,.).

30

Th d minh ho: nh gi kt qu v xc nh s tin on thi gian sng (predictors of

survival) ca b/n b u c tnh nguyn pht xng c, 1 nhm nghin cu phn b/n thnh
2 nhm: nhm c u mc thp (low-grade), v nhm c u mc cao (high-grade) vi
s liu di y. Chng ta mun so snh thi gian sng 5 nm (5-year survival experience)
ca 2 nhm b/n ny bng phng php Kaplan-Meier.
1/ S liu:

L: low-grade; H: high-grade

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Sp xp v gii thch s liu:

S liu c sp xp thnh chui thng k theo thi gian sng ghi nhn c (Time), s b/n
c nguy c v s b/n sng st c tnh theo tng thi im, xc sut sng st c tnh cho
tng b/n tng ng vi tng thi im, xc sut (nhn) dn c tnh ti tng thi im.

Ct 3: s b/n c nguy c tng thi im c 1 b/n t vong.

Ct 4: s b/n cn sng sau 1 hoc nhiu cas t vong.
Ct 5: Xc sut c iu kin (c lng) ca tnh trng sng st (tnh bng cch ly s ct
4 chia cho s ct 3). Lu : 2 cas t vong trong cng thi im c tnh 1 ln
(gp c 2).
32

Ct 6: Xc sut dn ca tnh trng sng st (xc sut ct 5 nhn cho xc sut dn ca ct 6 )

Nhn nh kt qu: da vo 2 bng trn, ta c th d dng so snh thi gian sng ca 2 nhm.
2/ Tm s trung v thi gian sng (Median survival time):
bng cch tm v tr ca thng m ti xc sut dn bng 50%. Trong nhm low-grade,
xc sut dn thay i t 0,619 xung 0,31 thng th 212, median survival time ca
nhm ny bng 212 thng. Trong nhm high-grade, xc sut dn thay i t 0,57 xung
0,43 thng th 9, median survival time ca nhm ny bng 9 thng.
3/ Tm t sut sng st sau 5 nm (five-year survival rate):
Bng cch tm trc tip trong ct xc sut dn xc sut tng ng vi thng th 60.
Trong nhm low-grade, five-year survival rate bng 73%, v trong nhm high-rate, t sut
ny bng 7%.
4/ Tnh t sut nguy hi trung bnh (Average hazard rate)
L s o kh nng khng sng st. T sut c s dng so snh mc nguy hi ca
2 nhm. Tnh t sut ny ( h ) bng cch ly s b/n t vong chia cho tng thi gian sng ghi
nhn c.

33

Average hazard rate ca nhm low-grade: h L = 9 / 2201 = 0, 004

Average hazard rate ca nhm high-grade: h H = 13 / 257 = 0, 05

T sut nguy hi trung bnh ca nhm high-grade cao hn rt nhiu so vi t sut ny ca

nhm low-grade cho thy c hi sng st ca b/n thuc nhm high-rate l rt nh.
5/ Kaplan-Meier survival curve (ng cong Thi gian sng Kaplan-Meier)

Trc dc: xc sut dn

Trc ngang: Thi gian (thng)
Cc bc thang xung cho bit thi im c t vong.
ng cong cng cho thy Median survival times v Five-year survival rates ca 2 nhm.
6/ Kt lun: cc quan st cho thy tri nghim v tnh trng sng ca b/n thuc nhm lowgrade thun li hn rt nhiu so vi ca b/n thuc nhm high-grade (Thi gian sng ca lowgrade b/n di hn ca high-grade b/n).
III. LOGRANK TEST

L test kim nh gi thuyt v s khc bit trong thi gian sng ca 2 dn s.

L 1 ng dng ca phng php Mantel-Haenszel.
2
).
S TKK: Logrank statistic hoc Mantel-Haenszel statistic ( MH

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