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Energy Outlook 2035 Booklet
Energy Outlook 2035 Booklet
January 2014
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Disclaimer
BP 2014
Contents
Page
Introduction
Liquid fuels
23
Natural gas
51
67
79
Appendix
91
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BP 2014
On the question of security, our Outlook offers a mixed, though broadly positive, view.
Among todays energy importers, the United States is on a path to achieve energy selfsufficiency, while import dependence in Europe, China and India will increase. Asia will
become the dominant energy importing region. Russia will remain the leading energy
exporter, and Africa will become an increasingly important supplier. While it will remain a
key energy player, the Middle East is likely to see relatively static exports.
And on the question of sustainability, we project that global carbon dioxide emissions
will rise by 29%, with all of the growth coming from the emerging economies. There are
some positive developments: emissions growth will slow as natural gas and renewables
gain market share from coal and oil. And emissions are expected to decline in Europe and
the US. But we could do better.
This year, we extend the outlook to 2035 far enough to see some key turning points:
India is likely to surpass China as the largest source of energy demand growth;
renewable energy will no longer be a minor player, surpassing nuclear energy; and OECD
countries will have started to crack the code of sustaining economic growth while
reducing energy demand.
Once again, the Outlook highlights the power of competition and market forces in
unlocking technology and innovation to meet the worlds energy needs. These factors
make us optimistic for the worlds energy future, and they suggest a way forward in
mastering challenges such as security and sustainability.
I hope you find the BP Energy Outlook a useful addition to the global energy discussion.
Bob Dudley
Group Chief Executive
Energy Outlook 2035
BP 2014
BP 2014
Page
Introduction
Liquid fuels
23
Natural gas
51
67
79
Appendix
91
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Billion toe
Billion toe
18
2.8
15
2.0
Other
12
1.2
China
0.8
China
India
1.6
India
0.4
OECD
0.0
OECD
2035
2025
2015
2005
2035
1995
1975
2000
-0.4
1985
3
0
1965
Other nonOECD
2.4
BP 2014
BP 2014
Billion toe
Billion toe
18
3.0
Transport
15
12
Other
2.5
2.0
Industry
1.5
Electricity
share
Other
1.0
Industry 0.5
Transport
10
2035
2025
2015
2005
2035
1995
2000
1985
0
1965
1975
0.0
BP 2014
11
BP 2014
Billion toe
Billion toe
18
3.0
Renew.*
Hydro
Nuclear
15
2.5
Hydro
2.0
Coal
9
Gas
Coal
1.0
Gas
0.5
Oil
2035
2025
2015
1975
2035
2005
0.0
Oil
2000
1.5
1995
Nuclear
1985
12
0
1965
Renew.*
*Includes biofuels
Energy Outlook 2035
12
BP 2014
13
BP 2014
Billion toe
Billion toe
18
3
FSU
S & C America
12
N America
Middle East
Europe
Asia Pacific
0
1990
Africa
2005
2020
Renewables
in power
Shale gas
14
12%
Tight oil,
oil sands,
biofuels
6%
% of total
(RHS)
0
1990
2035
18%
2005
2020
0%
2035
BP 2014
15
BP 2014
Billion toe
220
44
50%
Oil
GDP
170
40%
34
Coal
30%
120
24
20%
70
14
10%
Energy
(RHS)
20
1965
2000
Gas
Hydro
0%
1965
4
2035
Nuclear
2000
Renewables*
2035
*Includes biofuels
Energy Outlook 2035
16
BP 2014
and the fuel mix is slowly shifting away from fossil fuels
Energy consumption grows less rapidly than the global economy, with
GDP growth averaging 3.5% p.a. 2012-35. As a result energy intensity, the
amount of energy required per unit of GDP, declines by 36% (1.9% p.a.)
between 2012 and 2035. The decline in energy intensity accelerates; the
expected rate of decline post 2020 is more than double the decline rate
achieved 2000-2010.
Fuel shares evolve slowly. Oils share continues to decline, its position as
the leading fuel briefly challenged by coal. Gas gains share steadily. By
2035 all the fossil fuel shares are clustering around 27%, and for the first
time since the Industrial Revolution there is no single dominant fuel.
Taken together, fossil fuels lose share but they are still the dominant
form of energy in 2035 with a share of 81%, compared to 86% in 2012.
Among non-fossil fuels, renewables (including biofuels) gain share
rapidly, from around 2% today to 7% by 2035, while hydro and nuclear
remain fairly flat. Renewables overtake nuclear in 2025, and by 2035 they
match hydro.
Energy Outlook 2035
17
BP 2014
100%
World
Renew.
Gas
OECD
Non-OECD
75%
Nuclear
Oil
30%
50%
Coal
20%
25%
10%
Hydro
0%
1900
1945
1990
2035
18
0%
1965
2000
2035
BP 2014
19
BP 2014
Billion toe
FSU
500
Africa
2
S&C
America
Middle
East
North
America
Asia
-2
2005
2020
300
Energy
200
CO2
Europe
-4
1990
400
100
1965
2035
20
2000
2035
BP 2014
21
BP 2014
22
BP 2014
Page
Introduction
Liquid fuels
23
Natural gas
51
67
79
Appendix
91
23
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Demand
Mb/d
110
2035 level
Crude
105
Other
100
Mid East
95
Other Asia
North
America
India
Other
NGLs*
90
China
85
80
2012
OECD
decline
Non-OECD
growth
2012
Non-OPEC
growth
OPEC
growth
24
BP 2014
25
BP 2014
Demand by region
Mb/d
Mb/d
120
2.5
100
Other
Middle East
80
1.5
India
60
China
40
1.0
US
20
0
1965
2.0
India
Middle East
China
Other OECD
0.5
0.0
2000
2035
BP 2014
27
BP 2014
Demand by sector
Mb/d
120
Mb/d
4
Industry
Transport
Non-OECD
transport
100
80
OECD
transport
60
Non-OECD
ind. & other
40
OECD
ind. & other
20
0
1965
Power
0
2000
2035
BP 2014
29
BP 2014
Mb/d
12
120
Russia
% of total
China
(RHS)
South America
Canada & Mexico
US
OPEC NGLs
100
OPEC crude
80
9%
6%
Biofuels
60
Oil sands
40
Tight oil
20
0
1990
3%
0%
Other non-OPEC
2005
2020
2005
2035
30
2020
2035
BP 2014
31
BP 2014
Mb/d
Spare capacity
50%
40
8
30
40%
35%
20
30%
2
0
1975
1995
2015
10
2035
25%
1975
32
1995
2015
2035
BP 2014
33
BP 2014
Recent disruptions
Change since 4Q10, Mb/d
Sudans
Iran
Libya
Syria
US
Net
Iran (1979)
Iraq (1990)
Libya (1970)
Russia (1991)
-1
-2
-1
-3
-2
-4
-3
-5
3Q11
2Q12
1Q13
4Q13
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
34
BP 2014
35
BP 2014
OPEC exports
400
800
40
OPEC
Other non-OECD
OECD
Gas
300
600
200
400
20
100
200
10
0
1975 1995 2015 2035
Energy Outlook 2035
0
1975 1995 2015 2035
36
Oil
30
0
1975
1995
2015
2035
BP 2014
37
BP 2014
Mb/d
US: sources
of supply
30
Net imports
Tight oil
Other supply
25
20
Regional imbalances
Mb/d
75
50
Mb/d
Middle East
Europe
Africa
N America
China: sources
of supply
30
FSU
Asia Pacific
S&C America 25
20
25
15
15
0
10
10
-25
5
0
1995
2015
-50
1995
2035
5
0
2015
38
2035
1995
2015
2035
BP 2014
39
BP 2014
Mb/d
20
15
Mb/d
US crude
OPEC crude
RoW crude
Condensate
NGLs
Biofuels
20
15
Other*
10
10
5
OECD
Light distillates
Middle distillates
Fuel oil
Other
Biofuels
OECD
0
-5
-5
2013
2024
2035
2015
40
2020
2025
2030
2035
BP 2014
41
BP 2014
Billion toe
Mtoe
200
Electricity
Gas
150
Coal
Biofuels
Oil:
Road
Non-road
50
0
1980 1991 2002 2013 2024 2035
100
BP 2014
43
BP 2014
Billion toe
800
US
Germany
600
Japan
1.5
400
1.0
Transport demand
Vehicle ownership
2
Non-OECD
China
Non-OECD
1
200
0.5
India
OECD
OECD
0.0
1965
2000
2035
0
1965
2000
44
0
2035 1965
2000
2035
BP 2014
45
BP 2014
15
100%
EU
US light vehicles
China
Plug-ins incl.
BEVs
80%
Full hybrid
60%
Mild hybrid
10
40%
2035
2030
2035
2025
2015
2020
1995
2015
0%
2010
20%
0
1975
Conventional
including
stop-start
46
BP 2014
47
BP 2014
Mb/d
80
70
Non-OECD
60
Non-OECD
OECD
50
40
OECD
30
2012
Increased
number of
vehicles
Reduced
average
usage
Improved
Increased
vehicle
use of
efficiency alternatives*
2035
48
BP 2014
49
BP 2014
50
BP 2014
Page
Introduction
Liquid fuels
23
Natural gas
51
67
79
Appendix
91
51
BP 2014
Demand by sector
Bcf/d
500
400
300
100%
China
Other non-OECD
80%
Middle East
Other OECD
60%
North America
200
40%
100
20%
0
1965
Energy Outlook 2035
2000
Other
2035
52
Transport
Power
Industry
0%
1965
2000
2035
BP 2014
53
BP 2014
Bcf/d
Bcf/d
500
120
400
300
Non-OECD other
Non-OECD shale
OECD shale
80
OECD other
16%
Power
200
40
100
0
1970 1983 1996 2009 2022 2035
Energy Outlook 2035
24%
Rest of world
China
Europe & Eurasia
Canada & Mexico
US
54
Other
8%
% of total
(RHS)
0
1990
OECD
Transport
2005
2020
0%
2035
BP 2014
55
BP 2014
Bcf/d
120
80
FSU
Middle East
N America
Asia Pacific
Africa
S & C America
Europe
40%
Total
30%
40
0
Pipeline
20%
-40
10%
LNG
-80
-120
1990
2005
2020
0%
2035
1990
56
2005
2020
2035
BP 2014
57
BP 2014
Bcf/d
120
120
120
100
100
100
80
80
80
60
60
60
40
40
40
20
20
20
-20
-20
-20
1995
2015
2035
1995
2015
58
China
Bcf/d
2035
1995
2015
2035
BP 2014
59
BP 2014
Billion toe
45%
1.6
Industry
1.2
30%
Oil
Power
0.8
0.4
0.0
1970
15%
Gas
Transport
1983
1996
2009
2022
2035
60
0%
1965
2000
2035
BP 2014
61
BP 2014
Bcf/d
15
80%
LNG
Pipeline
10
60%
Total
US
Australia
40%
Africa
20%
Qatar
0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
-5
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Energy Outlook 2035
62
BP 2014
63
BP 2014
Production
Bcf/d
100
2035 level
LNG
90
Other
Transport
Industry
Power
80
70
Pipeline
60
50
2012
Demand
growth
Net trade
64
2012
Non-shale
decline
Shale
BP 2014
65
BP 2014
66
BP 2014
Page
Introduction
Liquid fuels
23
Natural gas
51
67
79
Appendix
91
67
BP 2014
Consumption by region
Billion toe
Billion toe
1.2
Other
0.9
China
0.3
FSU pipeline
0.0
Conventional
68
2035
2025
2035
2015
2000
2005
0
1965
-0.3
1995
OECD
1985
Russian pipeline
OECD
1975
0.6
LNG
India
China
India
3
Other non-OECD
BP 2014
69
BP 2014
60%
90%
Power
Industry
Other
Transport
40%
60%
20%
0%
1965
Energy Outlook 2035
30%
2000
0%
2035
1965
70
China
India
Other
OECD
2000
2035
BP 2014
71
BP 2014
OECD
Billion toe
Billion toe
Biofuels
Renewables
Nuclear
Hydro
0
1965
0
1965
2000
2035
72
2000
2035
BP 2014
73
BP 2014
35%
30%
25%
EU
US
0.9
China
20%
0.6
15%
10%
0.3
5%
0%
1990
0.0
2005
2020
2035
74
China
EU
US
OECD
Asia
India
BP 2014
75
BP 2014
12%
China
Rest of world
9%
Non-OECD
OECD
World
EU
2
US
6%
3%
0
1965
0%
1965
2000
2035
76
2000
2035
BP 2014
77
BP 2014
78
BP 2014
Page
Introduction
Liquid fuels
23
Natural gas
51
67
79
Appendix
91
79
BP 2014
Tonnes CO2
45
25
36
20
27
15
18
IEA 450
Scenario
Non-OECD
EU
10
5
US
World
India
OECD
0
1965
Energy Outlook 2035
2000
China
0
1965
2035
80
2000
2035
BP 2014
81
BP 2014
Carbon intensity
Tonnes CO2 per toe
China
US
India
EU
World
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
1965
0
1965
2000
2035
82
2000
2035
BP 2014
83
BP 2014
China
80%
Euro4*
China
US
US
60%
40%
20%
1900
EU
1915
1930
1945
1960
1975
1990
2005
2020
2035
84
BP 2014
85
BP 2014
EU
China
Other non-OECD
Asia
Coal
Gas
60%
30%
0%
1990
1990
Energy Outlook 2035
2035 1990
2035
1990
20351990
2035
1990
86
2035 1990
2035
1990
2035
2035
BP 2014
87
BP 2014
500
35
30
GDP
400
25
Energy
intensity
20
300
15
Energy
10
200
CO2
100
1990
2005
2020
Fuel mix
0
2035
88
GDP growth
effect
Projected
growth
BP 2014
89
BP 2014
Conclusion
Meeting the global energy challenge
Sufficient and available?
Yes new energy sources and
efficiency improvements
Sustainable?
Room for improvement
90
BP 2014
Page
Introduction
Liquid fuels
23
Natural gas
51
67
79
Appendix
91
91
BP 2014
Revised up
Coal
Oil
Gas
Transport consumption
Biofuels
-100
-50
50
100
150
Mtoe
Energy Outlook 2035
92
BP 2014
93
BP 2014
Billion toe
Non-OECD
Other
Nuclear
OECD
Gas
Liquids
6
5
0
IEA NPS
EIA
BP
IEA CPS
94
IEA NPS
EIA
BP
Coal
IEA CPS
BP 2014
95
BP 2014
Data sources
BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy, London, United Kingdom, June 2013
Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania,
Heston, A., Summers, R., Aten, B., Penn World Table Version 7.1, Nov 2012.
Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook, Washington, D.C., United States, 2013
Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Washington, D.C., United States, 2014
Etemad, B., J. Luciani, P. Bairoch, and J.-C. Toutain, World Energy Production 1800-1985, Librarie DROZ,
Switzerland, 1991
International Council for Clean Transportation, Global passenger vehicle standards update. August 2013
International Energy Agency, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion, Paris, France, 2013
International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2013
International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2013
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2013, Paris, France, 2013
Mitchell, B.R., International Historical Statistics 1750-2005, Palgrave Macmillan, New York, United States, 2007
Oxford Economics Ltd, Oxford, UK
Rhl C., Appleby P., Fennema J., Naumov A., Schaffer ME. (2012). Economic development and the demand for
energy: a historical perspective on the next 20 years. Energy Policy, vol 50, pp. 109-116.
UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, New York, United States, 2013
US Environmental Protection Agency, Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and
Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2012. March 2013
Plus various official sources
96
BP 2014