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  • NM 508 - NM 950 - Tutorial 2 Solutions

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    To draw The FN curve, we need to calculate the cumulative frequency (frequency for N or more fatalities) There are 6 outcomes associated with fatalities. FN curve is drawn as follows: Fatalities Frequency per grounding Exactly N fatalities 726 561 396 132 102 72.

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    To draw The FN curve, we need to calculate the cumulative frequency (frequency for N or more fatalities) There are 6 outcomes associated with fatalities. FN curve is drawn as follows: Fatalities Frequency per grounding Exactly N fatalities 726 561 396 132 102 72.

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    16 views3 pages

    NM 508 - NM 950 - Tutorial 2 Solutions

    Uploaded by

    oliyidecolom
    To draw The FN curve, we need to calculate the cumulative frequency (frequency for N or more fatalities) There are 6 outcomes associated with fatalities. FN curve is drawn as follows: Fatalities Frequency per grounding Exactly N fatalities 726 561 396 132 102 72.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 3

    Tutorial 2 Exercise 1

    The probability per grounding and the frequency per ship year for the possible outcomes
    considered are calculated as follows:

    The following table contains the individual risk and potential loss of life calculations:

    Hence IR = 3.02E-05 per ship-year and PLL = 2.56E-02 per ship-year

    FAR is calculated per 100 million person-hours at sea. We need to use the assumptions given
    (320 round trips per year, 8 hours per single voyage) in order to calculate exposure:
    (2 8) 320 (25% 1,100 + 50% 850 + 25% 600) =
    = 4,352,000 person-hours at sea (per ship-year)
    PLL = 2.56E-02 per ship-year = 2.56E-02 per 4,352,000 person-hours at sea FAR = 0.6

    To draw the FN curve, we need to calculate the cumulative frequency (frequency for N or
    more fatalities). There are 6 outcomes associated with fatalities. The following table
    provides the calculation of the cumulative frequency.
    Fatalities
    Frequency
    pergrounding ExactlyNfatalities
    726
    561
    396
    132
    102
    72

    1.05E05
    2.09E05
    1.05E05
    5.39E06
    1.08E05
    5.39E06

    Cumulative
    Frequency
    Normorefatalities
    1.05E05
    3.14E05
    4.19E05
    4.73E05
    5.81E05
    6.35E05

    The FN curve is drawn as follows:

    Tutorial2Exercise2
    Scenario

    Prob.
    percollision

    Collisions
    persy

    Oilspilled
    percollision
    tonnes

    PLC
    tonnes
    persy

    0.02880

    2.97E04

    18430

    5.467

    breachofinnerhull
    0.2

    0.00384

    3.96E05

    18430

    0.729

    nobreach
    0.8

    0.01536

    1.58E04

    0.000

    0.07200

    7.42E04

    0.000

    0.08000

    8.24E04

    0.000

    0.08640

    8.90E04

    10285

    9.153

    breachofinnerhull
    0.2

    0.01152

    1.19E04

    10285

    1.220

    nobreach
    0.8

    0.04608

    4.75E04

    0.000

    0.21600

    2.22E03

    0.000

    10

    0.24000

    2.47E03

    0.000

    11

    0.20000

    2.06E03

    0.000

    1.00000

    1.03E02

    singlehull
    0.6
    breachofhull
    0.4
    doublehull
    0.4

    loaded
    0.6
    atopensea
    0.25

    nobreach
    0.6
    ballast
    0.4
    singlehull
    0.6

    struck
    0.8

    breachofhull
    0.4
    doublehull
    0.4

    loaded
    0.6
    collisionincidents
    1.03E02
    pershipyear

    restrictedwaters
    0.75

    nobreach
    0.6
    ballast
    0.4

    striking
    0.2
    opensea

    minordamage
    severedamage
    totalloss

    restricted minordamage
    severedamage
    totalloss

    0.6
    0.3
    0.1

    0.7
    0.25
    0.05

    tonnes
    0
    10700
    152200
    18430
    0
    10700
    152200
    10285

    16.569

    2000shipsaveragefleetsizeforthenext20years
    predictedstatisticaloilspilled

    662,769

    tonnesofoilspilled

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