One such model was proposed by Anthony Downs (1957) and is adapted by William H.

Riker and Peter Ordeshook, in A Theory of the Calculus of Voting (Riker and Ordes
hook 1968)
R = pB - C + D
where
R = the reward gained from voting in a given election (R, then, is a proxy for t
he probability that the voter will turn out)
p = probability of vote mattering
B = utility benefit of voting--differential benefit of one candidate winning over
the other
C = costs of voting (time/effort spent)
D = citizen duty, goodwill feeling, psychological and civic benefit of voting (t
his term is not included in Downs's original model)
A political science model based on rational choice used to explain why citizens
do or do not vote.

The Calculus of Voting paper tries to use game theory to explain why people vote
. The equation is P * B + D > C.
P =
B =
D =
you
C =

Probability that your action will affect the decision

Benefit to you of the changed outcome
Sense of civic duty the user gets from the outcome - the sense you get when
are part of something bigger than youself
cost of the civic action

In the 2012 election, the likelihood of your vote changing the election is 0. P
* B is 0. People vote because of D outweighed the cost of voting. At the local l
evel this changes a little. Say you want a dog park, you have to drive to a meet
ing, do some public speaking. The cost is high. But the P is high, too. Your arg
ument might have a real impact.