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1. M u
Vic tnh ton tin cy (TC) ca cc h in, h c kh c pht trin sm, cho
n nay c nhiu ti liu cp n [1,2,...].
ng dng l thuyt TC vo nh go an ton ca cng trnh xy dng, c pht trin
chm hn, song cho n nay cng t nhiu thnh tu to ln[3,4,5,6...]. Cng c ton
hc gii quyt bi ton TC ca cc lnh vc l l thuyt xc sut thng k v qu
trnh ngu nhin.
Bc sang th k 21, nhn loi ngy cng nhn ra rng kh hu ton cu thay i v c
bn, cc s liu c l khng ng tin cy, nn khng b lan trn, trong khi cng trnh
xy dng l i tng b ng hng chu tai ho.
Mt vn c tnh ton cu trong th k 21 l nhn loi ang phi hnh ng v gii
quyt trong iu kin thiu thng tin, khng chc chn, m h, ngha l thng tin m. Do
, ngi ta tm n mt cng c ton hc mi, thch hp l ton hc m, c th l
l thuyt tp m [7,8]. Cho n nay, c nhiu ti liu bn v tp m v iu khin m
[9,10,..].
Vic ng dng l thuyt m vo tnh tin cy cng cp n trong thi gian gn
y [11,12,...], song ch xt cho cu kin hay yu t n gin, cha xt cho cng trnh (h
nhiu yu t).
Trong cc cng trnh [13,14,15], chng ti bn n, mt s vn c bn ca vic ng
dng l thuyt tp m vo nh gi tnh an ton ca h thng.
Trong bi ny chng ti ngh mt phng php tnh tin cy ca cng trnh c bin
m.
Theo nhng thng tin m chng ti nhn c th cho n nay cha c cng trnh nghin
cu no xut phng php tnh TC ca cng trnh cha cc tham s tin nh, ngu
nhin v m cng tham gia.
Phng php m chng ti xut gm cc bc c bn sau:
Chn v phn loi tham s, xc sut cc tit din nguy him ca cng trnh, b sung s
liu, thc hin php hi quy m, xc nh ng sut (ni lc) m ti cc tit din nguy
him, tnh TC ca cng trnh c bin m tham gia.
minh ho cho phng php, chng ti a ra mt th d n gin (song vn thc hin
cc bc) l tm ch nht, ta bn l theo cc cnh chu ti trng ngang.
2. Phng php tnh tin cy ca cng trnh c bin m tham gia
Phng php gm cc bc sau:
Bc 1: Chn v phn loi bin s
Mt cng trnh xy dng, ni chung s tham s hnh hc, vt liu v ti trng (mi
trng) tham gia l rt ln. Cc bin s trn c cc c trng khc nhau v cha cc
lng thng tin khc nhau. Do , cn c vo lng thng tin v cc tham s m phn
loi thnh tin nh, ngu nhin v m.
a. Bin tin nh l bin c phng sai b, ng thi nhy cm ca cc i lng c
trng cho bn, n nh, dao ng ca cng trnh i vi cc i lng l b. p
ng c cc yu cu th lng thng tin cn phi kh y .
b. Bin ngu nhin l cc i lng ngu nhin, c s liu x l tm ra c cc
c trng bng s ca chng v khng nh n thuc loi phn phi thng k no, do
phi tho mn cc tiu chun ph hp ca l thuyt thng k.
c. Bin m l bin thiu s liu quan st o c, gi tr ca n m h, khng chc chn,
khng r quy lut bin i.
Trong bi ny xt cc bin m c nh c cn trn v cn di ca min bin thin,
song khng r quy lut ly gi tr ca chng trong .
Cc tc gi xt cc bin ngu nhin m trong k vng v phng sai l cc s
m [12], d ng dng chng ti tm chia ra ba loi nh trn.
Bc 2: Xc nh cc tit din nguy him ca cng trnh
Khi tnh TC ca cng trnh ta khng tnh ti mi tit din ca cng trnh m ch tnh ti
tit din nguy him.
i vi cc bin tin nh v ngu nhin th theo quy phm v dung sai trong xy dng
cho php bin thin nh quanh k vng, do cc loi bin ny khng gy ra thay i v
tr cc tit din nguy him.
i vi cc bin m th ta khng r quy lut bin thin, nn phi cn c vo c dim
ca cng trnh d on v tit din nguy him, thng ngi ta phi phn ra 2 min
gi tr m v dng tnh tit din nguy him.
T cc kin, ta c th chn tit din nguy him bng cch tnh kt cu theo phng
php tin nh (chng hn dng SAP 2000), u vo l gi tr i din cho bin m trong
cc vng tri du hoc gi tr trung bnh khi khng i du. Vi cch lm trn ta xc nh
c ni lc, t suy ra cc tit din nguy him.
Cc tit din nguy him ca bc ny c th phi iu chnh khi ta tnh c gi tr trung
tm ca bin m bc sau.
Bc 3: B sung s liu do thiu hoc khng r rng
Khi thiu s liu hoc s liu khng r rng th vic thc hin thut ton hi quy tm
ng sut (hay cng ng sut) khng thc hin c hoc kt qu khng ng tin cy.
Do , ta phi b sung s liu. Trc ht b sung s liu u vo. Vic b sung s liu
u vo c thc hin theo cc thut ton m phng Monte - Carlo [1,16].
Gi s bng s ngu nhin ca m phng Monte - Carlo trong on [0,1] l K th s
liu b sung ca chng ta trn on l:
A+(b-a)K
(vi b> a)
T
(ng sut tng ng), tm gi tr trung tm a ai v cc rng C C i [17,18]
(hnh 1)
Trong bc ny c 3 vic phi lm:
a. Tm gi tr trung tm ca cc h s m (m tam gic cn). thc hin bc ny ta
dng thut ton hi quy thng thng i vi cc t hp ca gi tr u vo X v u ra
(ng sut)Y. Ta tm c vect a theo cng thc:
a XTX
X Y
1
Hnh 1
0
a-c
ai
a+ci
Xc nh tit
din nguy him ca cng trnh
B sung s liu u vo
Tm ng sut tng ng
vi cc t hp u vo
(gc 900)
- Mt di:
(gc 900)
v gi thit cc bin l1, l2, l tin nh, l ngu nhin. Cn 4 h s m tam gic cha
xc nh:
A5 = (a5, c5),
A6 = (a6, c6)
T
Theo cng thc:
a a1 ,...a12
u Y
a uTu
i 1
T
J C ui min
a T .ui (1 H ).C T ui yi
Vi cc iu kin
T
T
a .ui (1 H ).C ui yi
Trong H l mc m.
258,1 -0,108
21,70 -14,7
25,30 10,11
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
PS
0,99620
0,99570
0,99505
0,99416
0,99286
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
PS
0,99077
0,99680
0,97631
0,91122
4. Kt lun
Trong bi ny cc tc gi ngh mt cch tm tin cy ca cng trnh c bin m tham
gia cng vi cc bin tin nh v ngu nhin. thc hin phng php trn chng ti
dng phng php phn t hu hn, k thut m phng Monte - Carlo, php hi quy
tuyn tnh m v phng php tnh tin cy theo m hnh giao thoa gia ng sut m v sc
bn ngu nhin.