PHN TCH TIN CY V AN TON CNG TRNH THY LI VIT NAM

Phm Hng Cng1, Nguyn Lan Hng2, Nguyn Th Huyn Trang2

Tm tt: Tip cn vi tiu chun k thut ca cc nc tin tin v p dng nhng phng php tnh
hin i nng cao chnh xc cho cc quyt nh khi thit k cng nh qun l cht lng cng trnh
thy li l mt trong nhng hng nghin cu tch cc trong lnh vc an ton cng trnh Vit Nam hin
nay. Ni dung ca bi bo trnh by cch tip cn ca cng trnh thy li vi thit k ngu nhin cp II,
ng thi trnh by v d ng dng l thuyt tin cy phn tch an ton ca cng l thin lm r cc vn
cn nghin cu. Cc ni dung ca bi bo l nhng kt qu nghin cu mi v l ti liu tham kho hu
ch cho cng tc nghin cu, nh gi an ton cho cng trnh thy li.
T kha: An ton cng trnh thy li, cc s c ca cng l thin, tin cy ca cng l thin, phn
tch tin cy, thit k ngu nhin.
1. t vn 1
Mi cng trnh l mt h thng kt cu phc tp.
Trong qu trnh lm vic, cc hng mc cng trnh l
cc phn t quan trng trong h thng v c lin
quan vi nhau theo mt logic. Thc t xy dng v
khai thc cng trnh thy li cho thy, khng t h
thng cng trnh b s c vi nhiu l do khc nhau,
trong c nhng yu t khng c xt n do hn
ch ca cc phng php tnh ton nn gy ra
nhng tn tht ln i vi sn xut, kinh t, mi
trng v con ngi. Cho n nay, Vit Nam, cc
h thng cng trnh u mi thy li v ang
c thit k theo phng php truyn thng,
phng php thit k tt nh. Phng php ny
khng nh lng c mc nh hng ca tng
thnh phn n an ton chung ca h thng. V vy
ngi thit k cng nh ngi qun l cha c cn
c chc chn phn tch cc nhn t nh hng
n an ton cng trnh, lm c s a ra nhng
quyt nh hp l khi thit k cng nh khi vn hnh
khai thc cng trnh.
Trn th gii, l thuyt ngu nhin ang c
dng tng i ph bin trong nhng nghin cu,
tnh ton phn tch an ton h thng nh h thng
phng l, h thng cng trnh xy dng... Trong lnh
vc cng trnh xy dng, nhiu nc tin tin chu
u, M, Nga, Trung Quc vv a ra nhng
tiu chun an ton cng trnh theo xc sut an ton
cho php hoc tin cy an ton ca cng trnh [2].
Cho n nay, Vit Nam, cc cng trnh cng
nh cc h thng thu li v ang c thit k
theo phng php truyn thng (tip cn xc sut
1
2

Vin Khoa hc Thy li

Trng i hc Thu li.

88

cp 0). Trong khi , hng chc nm nay, l

thuyt tin cy v tui th cng trnh a vo
chng trnh ging dy chnh ca cc trng i hc
nh: i Hc Bch Khoa, i Hc Xy Dng, i
Hc Thu Li Mt s cc nghin cu mi gn
y ng dng l thuyt tin cy trong lnh vc thu
li cng mi dng li kt qu nghin cu ca cc
lun vn tin s v thc s v cc vn nh:
Probabilistic Design of Coastal Flood Defences in
Viet Nam - Thit k ngu nhin h thng phng l
b bin Vit Nam, [1]; Nghin cu xy dng
phng php nh gi cht lng h thng cng
trnh thu nng theo l thuyt tin cy trong iu
kin Vit Nam, [3]; Phn tch n nh ca mt s
tuyn thuc h thng sng Hng v sng Thi
Bnh, [3]; Thit k xc sut v phn tch ri ro cho
sng ung ng bng chu th sng Hng
Vit Nam, [3];Nghin cu n nh mi dc ,
p, [3]. Kt qu nghin cu gn y ca ti c
lp cp nh nc ngh ng dng l thuyt tin
cy v phn tch ri ro vo trong nghin cu xc
nh tin cy v an ton cho cng trnh xy dng
trong iu kin thin tai bt thng, [7]. Hin nay ti
Vit Nam cc ti nghin cu v l thuyt tin
cy cho lnh vc thy li thng s dng mt s
phn mm ca Chu u nh BESTFIT: c lng
hp l ti a hm xc sut thng k cho bin ngu
nhin t s liu quan trc, VAP: x l bin ngu
nhin v gii hm xc sut thng k; Vit Nam c
phn mm DTC2007 ca TS. Phm Hng Cng
vi ni dung: nh gi cht lng h thng cng
trnh thy nng theo l thuyt tin cy. Nh vy
trong nghin cu cng nh trong thc t ng dng
chng ta cn ang thiu cc phn mm tnh ton
cho cc cng trnh cng nh cc h thng cng trnh

KHOA HC K THUT THY LI V MI TRNG - S 42 (9/2013)

thy li khc nhau.

Hin nay ti Vit Nam, trong tnh ton cng trnh
thy li ang s dng hn hp cc phng php:
phng php ng sut cho php, phng php h s
an ton v phng php trng thi gii hn cng vi
m hnh thit k truyn thng. Theo m hnh thit k
ny ti trng v bn tnh ton c mc nh theo
cc tiu chun thit k hin hnh trong sut thi gian
khai thc ca cng trnh. Nhng thc t cc hm ti
trng v bn chu tc ng ca rt nhiu yu t
khc nhau v bin i theo quy lut ngu nhin. V
vy quan nim v quan h gia ti trng v sc chu
ti ca cng trnh trong qu trnh lm vic ca m
hnh thit k truyn thng ngy cng tr nn lc hu.
Xu hng tin b hin nay l thit k cng trnh theo
l thuyt ngu nhin v phn tch tin cy. Mc
tip cn vi phng php thit k hin i ny hin
c chia ra cc cp khc nhau:
- Tip cn mc xc sut cp 0, thit k
truyn thng, s dng phng php h s an ton.
- Tip cn mc xc sut cp I, thit k bn
xc sut, s dng phng php nhiu h s an ton
(phng php trng thi gii hn).
- Tip cn xc sut cp II v cp III,
phng php tip cn ngu nhin.
Mc III, trong cc hm phn b ca cc
bin c gi nguyn quy lut phn b v cc tnh
ton khng s dng cc phng php gn ng. Cp
II, trong s dng cc phng php gn ng
bin i lut phn b ca cc ti trng v sc chu
ti v cc hm phn b chun, cc tnh ton s dng
cc phng php xc sut gn ng.
Bi bo ny trnh by mt s kt qu phn tch an
ton ca cng l thin tip cn vi l thuyt ngu
nhin cp II lm c s thit lp bi ton phn
tch tin cy an ton cho cc cng trnh thy li
Vit Nam.
2. Bi ton cp II v tin cy an ton
cng trnh.
Vi quan nim cng trnh b mt an ton (xy ra
s c), trong trng hp ti trng v cc tc ng
(S) vo cng trnh vt qu kh nng chu ti thit
k (R), hoc ti trng v tc ng nm trong gii hn
thit k nhng sc chu ti ca cng trnh b suy
gim, trong tnh ton thit lp c hm tin cy (Z).
Z R S (1)
Trong sc chu ti R v ti trng tc dng S l
cc hm s ca cc i lng ngu nhin c lut
phn phi xc nh. Theo biu thc (1) hm Z c

qui c nh sau: Z < 0 cng trnh khng tha mn

iu kin an ton; Z > 0, cng trnh tha mn iu
kin an ton; Z = 0 l ranh gii gia vng an ton v
vng khng an ton (xem hnh 1).
Hm tin cy Z c th l hm tuyn tnh c cc
bin ngu nhin phn phi chun; Z l hm phi
tuyn vi cc bin ngu nhin phn phi chun; Z: l
hm phi tuyn vi cc bin ngu nhin c lut phn
phi bt k
X2 (R)

Z = 0 Bin gia vng an ton v vng khng an ton

Z <0
Vng khng an ton
Z >0
Vng an ton
X 1 (S)

Hnh 1: M phng bin s c.

Cc bc tm xc sut ca hm tin cy nh sau

[6]:
Thnh lp hm tin cy Z.
Bin i cc bin ngu nhin (BNN) ca hm Z
c lut phn phi (PP) bt k v lut phn phi
chun. Xc nh k vng ( Xi ) v lch chun
( Xi ) ca cc BNN :
n

Xi X
i 1

Xi

Xi
;
n

(2)

n
1
Xi X
n 1
i 1

(3)

Khai trin Taylor i vi hm Z v s dng 2

biu thc u ca a thc ny. Hm Z c tuyn
tnh ha ti im thit k (TK) ban u:

X o X 1o , X 2o , X 3o ,... ;

(4)

trong : X io Xi ;
n

Z Z X0
i 1

Z X 0
. Xi X0 ;
X i

(5)
(6)

trong : k vng ban u ca hm Z tnh theo

(7) v lch chun ban u ca hm Z tnh theo (8)

KHOA HC K THUT THY LI V MI TRNG - S 42 (9/2013)

Z Z X 0
i 1

Z X 0
. Xi X 0 ; (7)
X i

89

(
i 1

Z X 0
. Xi ) 2 ;
X i

Tnh tin cy:

Z
;
Z

v xc sut h hng: P Z 0 ;

(8)
(9)
(10)

Tnh h s nh hng:

ZX 0
Xi
X i
;
i
Z
Xc nh ta TK mi:
X * X 1 , X 2 , X 3.... ;

(11)

(12)

trong :

X i Xi i . . Xi ;

(13)

Tnh lp tm im thit k v cc c trng

thng k ca hm Z. Qu trnh lp c m t trn
s hnh 2, bc lp ch dng li khi im thit k
hi t.
TK: l im nm trn ng bin gia vng an
ton v vng khng an ton m ti mt phn
phi xc sut ca hm tin cy Z l ln nht. S dng
kt qu TK cui cng ( hi t) tnh cc c
trng thng k ca hm Z, t xc nh c xc
sut xy ra s c P Z 0 .
3. ng dng l thuyt tin cy nh gi n
nh cho mt hnh thc cng trnh thy li: cng
l thin.
3.1 Gii thiu v cng l thin.
Cng l thin l mt loi cng trnh thy li c
s dng ph bin trong cc h thng ti, tiu,
phng l, ngn triuCng thng c chiu rng
kh ln, nn c chia ra thnh cc khoang. Cc
cng c xy dng hoc chun b xy dng
nc ta c chiu rng khoang t mt vi mt n
hng chc mt. Cc cng ly nc, ti, tiu hoc
cng iu tit trong h thng knh c chiu rng
khoang thng t 1m n 10m. Cc cng xy dng
trn sng lm nhim v iu tit dng chy, nht l
cc cng ngn mn c xy dng gn ca sng nh
cng im, cng Tho Long, cng Nghi
Quang..., mt s cng ang c thit k trong h
thng chng ngp thnh ph H Ch Minh nh: cng
Th B, cng Mng Chui..., phi tha mn iu
kin giao thng thy nn chiu rng mi khoang ca
cc cng ny c thit k t 30m n 60m. Chiu
su ct nc cc cng xy dng trn h thng ti

90

tiu khong t 1m n 10m, cc cng xy dng

trn sng khong t 5m n 15m. So vi ct nc
cc p to thnh h cha th cc cng h chu ct
nc thp hn, v vy khi phn loi theo ct nc
cng h cn c gi l cng trnh ct nc thp.
Cc b phn ca cng lin kt vi nhau thnh
mt h thng kt cu. Trong thc t, cng l thin
c xy dng c trn nn v nn t. Cng chu
tc ng ca nhiu ti trng, trong cc ti trng t
mi trng nc v cc ti trng pht sinh t mi
trng nn l cc ti trng c din bin phc tp.
Cng nh mt s cc cng trnh dng nc khc, s
lm vic ca cng h l qu trnh tng tc gia ba
mi trng nc, nn v cng. nh gi an ton ca
cng l xt s cn bng gia sc chu ti v ti trng
tc dng, trong cc yu t to nn sc chu ti v
ti trng bao gm c cc yu t tt nh v yu t
ngu nhin. Mc chnh xc ca cc kt lun v an
ton ca cng ph thuc rt nhiu vo mc xt
n tnh ngu nhin ca cc yu t to thnh sc
chu ti v ti trng ca cc phng php c la
chn tnh ton.
3.2 Cc c ch ph hoi ca cng l thin
Cng l thin b s c c th xut pht t mt
nguyn nhn hoc nhiu nguyn nhn mc ni vi
nhau. Cc kt qu phn tch c hc v cc nghin
cu tng kt trong thc tin a cc quy nh v
c ch ph hoi in hnh v cc iu kin m
bo an ton cho cng vo trong cc tiu chun k
thut thit k cng l thin. Trn c s phn tch c
im lm vic ca cng v da theo tiu chun thit
k cng l thin hin hnh c th thit lp c s
cy s c nh hnh 3.
S c cng l thin
hoc

Mt n nh
dng chy
hoc

hoc

Mt n nh
tng th
hoc

hoc

hoc

Mt n nh Cc s
c khc
kt cu
hoc

hoc

hoc

Cng b Cng b Nn cng

Cng b Cng b
trt
lt
khng kh y ni ln
nng chu ti

Hnh 2: S cy s c ca cng l thin

3.3. Hm tin cy ca cc c ch ph hoi
C rt nhiu nguyn nhn dn n s c cng l
thin nhng trong bi bo ny tc gi ch cp n
3 nguyn nhn lm mt n nh tng th cng v xy
dng hm tin cy cho 3 c ch ph hoi ny: cng b
trt, cng b lt, nn cng khng kh nng chu
ti.

KHOA HC K THUT THY LI V MI TRNG - S 42 (9/2013)

(1) Cng b trt phng

Cng c th b trt phng qua mt tip gip gia
phn chn khay ca y cng v t nn. Hm tin
cy ca c ch trt phng nh sau:

cng l PfC c tnh theo cng thc bin rng:

3

max Pfi Z i 0 PfC Pfi Z i 0

i 1

Trong :

Z1 Fct Fgt

Pfi Z i 0 : xc sut s c ca c ch th i.

Trong :
Fct : tng cc lc chng trt;

gt

: tng cc lc gy trt.

Cc lc chng trt v gy trt c xc nh

trn c s phn tch tt c cc lc tc dng ln bn
y cng.
Cng lm vic an ton khi P Z 10 Pf1
1

Trong Pf xc sut s c cho php ca c

ch mt n nh trt phng.
(2) Cng b lt
Trong qu trnh lm vic cng b c th b lt
quanh mt trc chn mng h lu. Hm tin cy
ca c ch lt nh sau:

Z 2 M cl M gl
Trong :

M ; M
cl

gl

: tng mmen chng

lt v gy lt ly vi trc chn mng h lu.

Cng lm vic an ton khi P Z 20 Pf2
2

Trong Pf xc sut s c cho php ca c

ch mt n nh lt.
(3) Nn cng khng kh nng chu ti
ng sut ln nht m cng phi chu thng xut
hin ti chn mng thng lu hoc h lu ca cng.
Khi ng sut trung bnh ti chn mng vt qu kh
nng chu ti ca nn cng th nn cng b ph hoi.

3.5 V d tnh tin cy ca cng l thin Nam

n.
lm r cc vn trnh by trn, trong
phn ny trnh by v d bng s vi cc s liu thu
thp c cng l thin Nam n tnh Ngh An.
Cc tnh ton c thc hin theo ba phng php:
h s an ton, trng thi gii hn (TTGH) v l
thuyt tin cy (LTTC).
3.5.1 Gii thiu mt phng n tham kho trong
thit k cng l thin Nam n (phng n cha x
l nn)
Cng thuc loi cng trnh cp II c xy dng
b t sng Lam thuc a bn x Xun Ho huyn
Nam n, tnh Ngh An. y l cng ly nc l
thin c lu lng thit k Qtk = 27,64 m3/s, cng
gm 3 khoang mi khoang rng 5m ng m bng
ca van phng, thn cng di 28,0m, pha sau van c
tng ngc cao 9,45m. Trn nh cng c b tr cu
giao thng, cu cng tc, cu th phai v cc thit b
chuyn dng khc.
3.5.2 Cc s liu tnh ton.
- Trng hp tnh ton: Chnh lch mc nc
thng h lu ln nht, cng ng.
- S dng phn mm BESTFIT tm lut phn
phi xc sut thc nghim v cc c trng thng k
, ca cc BNN nh bng 1.

Z 3 R TC TB

Bng 1: Cc BNN s dng trong tnh ton

Trong :
RTC : sc chu ti ca t nn;
TB : ng sut trung bnh ca mng cng.
Nn

cng

kh

nng

chu

ti

Tn cc BNN

khi

3
f

P Z 30 P
3
Trong Pf xc sut s c cho php ca c
ch mt n nh: nn cng khng kh nng chu
ti.
3.4 Xc sut s c ca cng l thin
S cy s c ca cng l thin nh hnh 3,
cc c ch s c xy ra l c lp v c quan h vi
nhau trong mt h thng ni tip. Hm tin cy Z
c tnh ton cp II nn xc sut s c ca

K
Lut phn
hi n vi phi ca
u
cc BNN

Dung trng kh ca t nn

k KN/m3

Gc ma st trong ca t nn

Lc dnh n v ca t nn

KN/m

Dung trng ca b tng

bt KN/m3

Phn Phi
chun
Phn Phi
chun
Phn Phi
chun
Phn Phi
chun

18,5 0,92
18

0,88

12,51 0,88
25

1,19

3.5.3 Cc tham s cho php theo tiu chun

Eurocode v tiu chun Vit Nam

KHOA HC K THUT THY LI V MI TRNG - S 42 (9/2013)

91

3.5.4 Kt qu tnh ton

- Tnh ton n nh cc c ch s
c theo 3 phng php khc nhau: h
s an ton, trng thi gii hn v
phng php tnh theo tin cy. S
dng phn mm VAP (Variables
Processor): tnh ton xc sut s
c ca cc c ch ph hoi theo
phng php tnh theo tin cy. Kt
qu nh bng 3.
K hiu: (1): Cng b trt phng;
(2): Cng b lt; (3): Nn cng khng
kh nng chu ti.
3.5.5. nh gi kt qu
Kt qu tnh theo tiu chun hin
hnh ca Vit Nam, trong s dng
phng php h s an ton v phng
php trng thi gii hn cho kt qu
tha mn cc iu kin n nh.
Kt qu tnh theo phng php thit
k ngu nhin: xc sut ly tiu chun
an ton theo Eurocode th phng n
thit k nu s hnh 3 khng m
bo iu kin n nh.
Hnh 3: S cng Nam n dng trong tnh ton
Bng 2: Cc gi tr cho php theo tiu chun Vit Nam v Eurocode
Tiu chun Vit Nam.
Phng php h s an ton
Phng php TTGH
k .n
k .n
[Kt]
[Kl]
Kt n c Kl n c
m
m
1,2
1,2
1,2
1,2

Xc sut s c cho php theo tiu chun Eurocode.

PfC

Pf1

Pf2

Pf3

1.10-3

6.10-4

3.10-4

1.10-4

Bng 3: Kt qu tnh ton n nh cng theo 3 phng php

Cc c
ch s
c
(1)
(2)
(3)

Cc phng php tnh ton:

H s an ton
Kt = 1,69
Kl = 1,81
TB 104,81 KN / m

- Cng khng b trt.

Kt - Cng khng b lt.
lun
- Nn kh nng chu ti

TB

Kt = 1,57
Kl = 1,78
96, 28 KN / m 2

- Cng khng b trt.

- Cng khng b lt.
- Nn kh nng chu ti

4. Kt lun
Tuy cn b hn ch mc tip cn vi phn
tch ngu nhin cp II, cc tnh ton trnh
by trong bi bo, a ra c thut ton tnh
xc sut s c v cc yu t nh hng n an ton
cng trnh.
92

LTTC

TTGH

P(Z1<0) = 0,628
P(Z2<0) 0

PfC 0,628

P(Z3<0) = 0,0154
- Cng c kh nng b trt
- Cng khng b lt.
- Nn cng khng kh
nng chu ti..

C kh nng
cng b mt n
nh

Bi bo trnh by mt v d nh gi an ton
cng l thin Nam n theo 3 phng php: phng
php h s an ton v trng thi gii hn (s dng cc
tiu chun ca Vit Nam), phng php tnh theo
tin cy (s dng cc tiu chun Eurocode ca Chu
u); cho thy yu cu v n nh cng trnh theo tiu

KHOA HC K THUT THY LI V MI TRNG - S 42 (9/2013)

chun Eurocode ca Chu u cao hn so vi tiu

chun Vit Nam. Tuy nhin cc kt qu trn ch l
tham kho v tin cy v cc ti liu dng trong tnh
ton mt mc nht nh. S tnh l s ca
phng n tham kho, mt s sai s ngu nhin cha
c y ti liu thng k cn phi gi nh.
Nghin cu ng dng v pht trin cc phng
php tnh ton hin i v tip cn vi cc tiu

chun k thut ca cc nc tin tin l mt trong

nhng hng tch cc hin nay trong lnh vc an
ton cng trnh nc ta. Tuy nhin pht trin
c l thuyt ny nc ta cn phi tin hnh mt
s nghin cu nh: lu tr d liu trong xy dng v
trong quan trc, xy dng cc phn mm chuyn
dng cho cc bi ton cng trnh cng nh h thng
cng trnh

TI LIU THAM KHO

1.

Mai Van Cong. Probabilistic design of coastal flood defences in Vietnam. Sieca Repro, the Netherlands
(2010). ISBN: 978-90-9025648-1, 249p.
2. Mai Vn Cng. Thit k cng trnh theo l thuyt ngu nhin v phn tch tin cy. Gio trnh 2005.
3. Phm Hng Cng. Nghin cu xy dng phng php nh gi cht lng h thng cng trnh thu
nng theo l thuyt tin cy trong iu kin Vit Nam. Lun n tin s k thut, 2009.
4. Nguyn Lan Hng, Nguyn Vn Mo, Mai Vn Cng. Application of probabilistic reliability analysis
in dam safety in Vietnam. ICEC 2012, Proceedings of the fourth International Conference on Estuaries
and Coasts, volume 2.
5. Nguyn Lan Hng, Nguyn Vn Mo, Mai Vn Cng. Nghin cu ng dng l thuyt tin cy v
phn tch ri ro nh gi mc m bo an ton cho h thng cng trnh thy li ly nc bng h
cha trong iu kin Vit Nam. Tp ch KHKTTL v MT s c bit, 20/11/2011.
6. Nguyn Lan Hng, Nguyn Vn Mo, Mai Vn Cng. Phn tch tin cy an ton ca p t. Tp
ch KHKTTL v MT s 39, thng 12 nm 2012.
7. Nguyn Vn Mo. L thuyt tin cy trong thit k cng trnh thu cng. Bi ging cao hc. i hc
Thu Li 2000.
8. Nguyn Vn Mo & nnk. Nghin cu c s khoa hc v cc gii php k thut m bo an ton cng trnh
xy dng trong iu kin thin tai bt thng Min Trung. ti cp Nh Nc. H Ni 2009.- 2011
9. TCXDVN 285-2002.
10. EN 1990:2002. Eurocode - Basis of structural design.
11. Trnh Bn L Ha Xng, Thit k cng, Nh xut bn nng nghip
12. Gio trnh thy cng, tp 1, 2 Trng i hc thy li, Nh xut bn Xy Dng, nm 2004.
Summary
RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF HYDRAULIC STRUCTURE SAFETY IN VIETNAM
Approaching to the technical standards of developed countries and applying the modern methods of
calculation to improve the accuracy of the design decisions as well as to manage the quality of hydraulic
structure is one of the advanced research directions in the field of hydraulic structure Safety in Vietnam
today. The main content of this paper is to analyze the probability of hydraulic structure safety according to
the stochastic theory - level II, and application examples presented theoretical analysis of the reliability and
safety sluices to clarify the issues to research organizations. This paper includes the results of the last
studies and can be considered to be the reference for research in the field of hydraulic structure safety.
Keywords: hydraulic structure safety, failures sluice, reliability of sluice, reliability analysis
,probabilistic design.

Ngi phn bin: PGS. TS. Nguyn Quang Hng

KHOA HC K THUT THY LI V MI TRNG - S 42 (9/2013)

BBT nhn bi:

Phn bin xong:

21/7/2013
23/8/2013

93