Qs 2011_3 Qd 2011_2Pd

1
8303
5020
2
18299
20684
3
20287
10240
4
12658
13994
5
6515
4418
6
13601
6523
7
3276
13085
8
10064
2333
9
3932
3427
10
532
10841
11
78476
104411
12
60322
25930
13
7657
43602
14
112447
6837
15
25806
68399
16
8081
22169
17
10958
8681
18
8668
12994
19
10437
10903
20
3116
6960
21
8459
5668
22
8240
9224
23
4446
3496
24
3058
990
25
11026
2474
26
2709
8629
27
3985
571
28
3917
1252
29
1320
1647
30
274
558
31
2316
10002
32
2737
1925

2011_2
87031
66966
71679
68381
76460
71830
67307
67097
77539
78521
62530
59819
61101
56229
67734
46722
59108
56759
73488
77208
76744
81481
62500
71804
69644
63073
63122
72321
56554
69299
76749
82924

Qs 2011_3
1
8303
2
18299
3
20287
4
12658
5
6515
6
13601
7
3276
8
10064
9
3932
10
532
11
78476
12
60322
13
7657
14
112447
15
25806
16
8081
17
10958
18
8668
19
10437
20
3116
21
8459
22
8240
23
4446
24
3058
25
11026
26
2709
27
3985
28
3917
29
1320
30
274
31
2316
32
2737

Pd 2011_2
87031
66966
71679
68381
76460
71830
67307
67097
77539
78521
62530
59819
61101
56229
67734
46722
59108
56759
73488
77208
76744
81481
62500
71804
69644
63073
63122
72321
56554
69299
76749
82924

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

Chart Titl
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000

100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1
Qs 2011_3

Pd

Qd 2011_2Pd
5020
20684
10240
13994
4418
6523
13085
2333
3427
10841
104411
25930
43602
6837
68399
22169
8681
12994
10903
6960
5668
9224
3496
990
2474
8629
571
1252
1647
558
10002
1925

Chart Title

2011_2
87031
66966
71679
68381
76460
71830
67307
67097
77539
78521
62530
59819
61101
56229
67734
46722
59108
56759
73488
77208
76744
81481
62500
71804
69644
63073
63122
72321
56554
69299
76749
82924

1 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Qs 2011_3

Pd 2011_2

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324

Qd =29979 - 0.306 P

Qs = -15289 + 0.392 P

Qs

P
29979
0
14985
49000
0 97970.59

391

Pe
Qe

40000

10133.72 64853.87
31751

39002.55

120000

P (Rp)
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
391

10133.71704

Jumlah (ton)

31751

0.698
45268
64853.87
10133.72

Harga dagi

0
0.05
0.1
0.2

56378
58196.9
60015.8
63653

P (Rp)
140000
120000
100000
80000
Cif t20=
Cif t5=63,653 Cif t10=
60,015
58,197

60000

Cifo

40000
20000
0
391

10133.71704

Jumlah (ton)

31751

31751

Harga CIF
Kurs
Harga CIF
Tarif impor

USD

Asumsi by pengiriman+keuntungan

Rp

Harga daging impor tahun 2011

Harga daging impor dengan tarif

Rp

Harga daging impor tahun 2013

Rp
5%
10%
20%

0%
5%
10%
20%

404.2
9000
36378
1818.9
3637.8
7275.6
20000

3.861 (sumber : Pusat Data dan Sis

34749

56378
58196.9
60015.8
63653.6

50000 www.portalkbr.com (Importir : Impor Dag

sumber : Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian 2012)

br.com (Importir : Impor Daging sapi seperti menggarami air laut by Doddy Rosadi 6 Agustus 2013

39002.55

gustus 2013

Qd =29979 - 0.306 P
Tarif

Surplus konsumen

0
5
10
20

Harga d

Surplus produsen

264,681,339,605
242,037,780,203
220,406,590,348
180,187,619,930

0
0.05
0.1
0.2

59,173,620,540
72,210,914,419
86,545,100,005
119,098,348,440

56,378
58,197
60,016
63,653

Tarif Penerimaan Pemerintah

Consumer Dead weigt loss
5%
8,451,634,896
648,445,853
10%
12,284,747,286
2,593,783,413
20%
6,097,948,650
10,373,422,500

Qs = -15289 + 0.392 P
P (Rp)
Penerimaan Pemerintah

8,451,634,896
12,284,747,286
6,097,948,650

Consumer Dead

Producer Dead

weigt loss

Weight loss

648,445,853
2,593,783,413
10,373,422,500

506,184,773
2,024,739,093
8,097,620,625

140000

120000

100000

80000
a
60000
Cif
o

b
c

40000

Producer Dead Weight loss

Society Ineficiency
506,184,773
1,154,630,626
2,024,739,093
4,618,522,505
8,097,620,625
18,471,043,125

20000

0
391

P (Rp)

40000

Qs

20000

00000

80000
a

60000
Cif
o

Cift

40000

Qd

20000

impor
0
391

jumlah
penawaran
di DN

jumlah10133.71704
permintan
di DN

Jumlah (ton)

31751

P (Rp)
140000
120000
100000
80000

Cif t20=
Cif t5=63,653 C
6
58,197

60000

Cifo

40000
20000

31751

0
391

10133.71704

Ju

10133.71704

Cif t20=
Cif t5=63,653 Cif t10=
60,015
58,197

Jumlah (ton)

31751

KEBIJAKAN SWASEMBADA SAPI

ANGGARAN 5 TAHUN
ANGGARAN 2011
PRODUKSI SAPI 2011
SUBSIDI PER KG DAGING SAPI

18,700,000,000,000
3,740,000,000,000
485,333,000
7,706

Rp
Rp
kg
Rp

Kondisi keseimbangan 2011

(sdh tmsk subsidi Rp 7.706/kg)
P0
64,854 kg
Q0
10,134 ton
Kondisi keseimbangan tanpa subsidi
Harga 2011 tanpa subsidi
69,182 kg
Q 2011 tanpa subsidi
8,809 ton

Simulasi subsidi
5% x harga 2011 tanpa subsidi
20% x harga 2011 tanpa subsidi

Q5

140000

120000

100000

80000

P o=69.182

60000

40000

besar subsidi

Kondisi keseimbangan subsidi 5%

P5

P (Rp)

3,459
13,836

20000

0
391

67,239 kg
9,404 ton
P (Rp)

Kondisi keseimbangan subsidi 20%

P20

61,411 kg

Q20

11,187 ton

140000

120000

100000

80000

P'
0

60000

40000

20000

0
391

P (Rp)

Qs5

Qs

140000

Qs2011

Qs2

120000

100000

80000

P o=69.182
Ps 5=
Ps 2011=
67.239
64.854

60000

Ps 20=
61.411

40000

Qd
20000
Q5
0
391

Q
0

Q20

10133.71704

Jumlah (ton)

31751

Q2011

P (Rp)

Qs

140000

Qs'

120000

100000

80000

P'
0

60000

e
g

40000

Qd

20000

0
391

Q0

Q'

Jumlah (ton)
10133.71704

31751

31751

31751

Qd =29979 - 0.306 P

Subsidi

Surplus konsumen

0
5
tahun 2011
20
PRODUKSI SAPI 2011
Harga daging impor dengan tarif

126,803,770,325
144,497,868,866
167,797,723,374
204,500,334,266
485,333,000
Harga 2011 tanpa subsidi
Harga baru dengan subsidi 5%
P0
Harga baru dengan subsidi 20%

Kondisi keseimbangan 2011

(sdh tmsk subsidi Rp 7.706/kg)
P0
64,854
Q0
10,134
Kondisi keseimbangan tanpa subsidi
Harga 2011 tanpa subsidi
69,182
Q 2011 tanpa subsidi
8,809

Simulasi subsidi
5% x harga 2011 tanpa subsidi
20% x harga 2011 tanpa subsidi

besar subsidi
3,459
13,836

Kondisi keseimbangan subsidi 5%

P5
Q5

67,239
9,404

Kondisi keseimbangan subsidi 20%

P20
Q20

61,411
11,187

Qs0= -18309,752 + 0.392P

Qs5=-16953,824 + 0.392 P
Qs = -15289 + 0.392 P
Qs20= -12886.04 + 0.392P
Surplus produsen
Pengeluaran
pemerintah
98,989,160,296
112,796,757,820
130,984,957,532
159,629,814,367

32,528,714,594
78,090,418,057
154,789,151

46708.5510204082
43249.5510204082
39002.5510204082
P (Rp)
140000
120000
100000

80000

kg
69,182
67,239
64,854
61,411

P
P'60000
0

b
c

40000
20000

kg
ton
kg
ton

kg
ton

kg
ton

0
391

Q0

10,134
P (Rp)
140000

P (Rp)

Qs

140000

120000

120000

80000

P o=69.182
Ps 5=
Ps 2011=
67.239
64.854

80000

P
P'60000

Qs'

100000

100000

b
c

40000

e
g

60000

Ps 20=
61.411

40000

20000

20000

0
391
10133.71704

0
391

Q0

Q'

Qd

Qs5
Q

Jumlah (ton)

Qs 2
Qs 201
1

10133.71704
31751

=
Ps 2011=
.239
64.854

201

Ps 20=
61.411

Jumlah (ton)

Qs 2
0

10133.71704
31751

31751