( ....

(National
Objective)1

 ....

(.)

..
..

..

...

. .

-
Black-out (Brown-out)



..2533-2534
- Black-Out

(2531-2534)

.. 2521
!!!

(2520-2523)

vs

(GWh)

200,000

150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2529

2534

2539

2544

2549

2554

.. 2531
Black-out Brown-out

(
**
)

** . 10 .. 57
WB 50

1 13

6

25


( )



7


ULG 95 Prices Comparison

: International Fuel Prices Study, GIZ



LPG
60

50
40
30
20
10
0

.. 2556
.

= 18 21 /
24.83 /
.. 2557


Residential Rate
Baht/kWh
USD/kWh

Source : EIA
High-Income-Economics

Denmark

UK
Japan
France
USA
Thailand
Indonesia

Middle-Income Economics




Baht/kWh
Baht/kWh

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

Myanmar

Brunei

Philippine Vietnam

Laos

Malaysia Thailand Cambodia Singapore

As of February 2011
Remark : The Lowest Rate of Tariff
Source : http://talkenergy.wordpress.com

(Demand)

(Supply)

-
-
- LPG

-LNG

12

:
(Peak)
mmscfd

M-9
LNG Phase I
(5 MMT)

Tran ASEAN
Grid Line

OCA

LNG Phase II
(5 MMT)

LNG
import
Import piped gas

Bid 21

Contract
Extension

13

Peak

14


... !!!!
1. --

,,
(

)

. 1

14.79 /
1 ( 46-47)
100,000

2. -
3.

(Agro
Energy)

-
-

-

-
- Smart grid
-

4.
5.

15

Back up
#1
#2
#3
16

Back up #1

17

Concession System
Production Sharing Contract (PSC)
Service Contract
Risk Service Contract

( Corporate Income, Petroleum Income )

18


Thailand I:

... .. 2514 ( 1)
12.5
50

2521

2524
()
(


)

Thailand II: .. 2525

12.5
50
(Annual Bonus)

27.5% >10,000 20,000 bpd

37.5% >20,000 30,000 bpd
43.5% >30,000 bpd
( bpd )

(Annual Benefit)

20
4 ( 9-12)

2525 2532

(
19

)


Thailand III: ... .. 2514 ( 4 ..2532)
5-15

5%
0- 60,000 boe/
6.25% > 60,000 - 150,000 boe/
10%
>150,000 - 300,000 boe/
12.5% >300,000 - 600,000 boe/
15%
>600,000 boe/
( boe )

50
(SRB) 0-75%

(SRB)

20

380 mmscfd

Thailand I

IRR

Thailand III

IRR

MTJDA

IRR

Malaysia PSC

IRR

Indonesia PSC

IRR

Myanmar PSC

IRR

15,000 bpd

600 bpd

55
22

53
21

3.9

70
17

80
15

68
18

70
17

1.2

85
12

83
13

2.2

89
12.5

88
12

1.8

71
16

72
17

-1.5

21

 Thai I Thai III

(.. 2555) 58

vs
Thailand III



Thailand I





Thailand III

22




58 ()

57 ( )

23



()
58 ()

57 ( )

24

()

()

( )

Thailand I

54:46

1.23 (79%)

3.24 (82%)

3,218 (89%)

Thailand III

72:28

0.33 (21%)

0.70 (18%)

398 (11%)

Thailand I
* 2555

25

25

Governments Take Comparison

COMPANY TAKE (%)

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

R/T

UK
Nicaragua
Portugal
Gulf of Mexico
Argentina
New Zealand
Gulf of Mexico
Philippines
PNG Gas
Peru
Australia
Cambodia

R/T
R/T
R/T
R/T
SA

R/T

Thailand

R/T

PNG Oil
Ethiopia
E. Indonesia
Trinidad
Gambia
Pakistan
Congo
Timor Gap
Ecuador
Albania
Morocco
Egypt
India
Tunisia
Angola
Romania
Syria
Myanmar
Colombia
Gabon
Malaysia
Vietnam
Kazakhstan
Ghana
Brunei
China
Russia
Bahrain
Indonesia
Yemen
Venezuela

R/T
PSC
PSC
SA

PSC
PSC
PSC
R/T
R/T

R/T
PSC & R/T
R/T

R/T

R/T

Thailand I

Thailand III
50-75%

PSC
R/T
PSC

PSC
R/T
PSC
PSC
PSC
PSC

R/T

PSC
PSC
PSC
PSC
R/T
R/T
PSC
PSC
R/T
PSC
PSC
SA
100%

: Daniel Johnston

90%

Predominant Fiscal Systems

PSC - Production Sharing Contract
R/T - Royalty/Tax System
SA - Systems with classic

80%

70%

60%

GOVERNMENT TAKE (%)

50%

40%

30%

26

26

20

155

71,700

3+3+3

35

1,555,150

Thailand I
Thailand III

88

30+10 , 20+10

32

SRB

1,330,000

* 2555

27

28

Back up # 2

29




BRENT

WTI

DUBAI
BRENT

TAPIS

WTI

West Texas Intermediate : North&South America

Dubai : Middle East

Brent : Europe & Africa

Tapis : Far East

30

Demand/Supply

Arbitrage Cargoes

31

IPE
Nymex

International Petroleum Exchange

New York Mercantile Exchange

Simex
Singapore Intl Monetary Exchange

Trade around the clock

32

Shell
SRC

1,310,000 B/D
440,000 B/D
285,000 B/D

ExxonMobil 585,000 B/D

300,000 B/D
1,010,000 B/D

1,022,000 B/D

ESSO
160,000 B/D
BCP
120,000 B/D
TOC
220,000 B/D
TPI
215,000 B/D
RAYONG
145,000 B/D
SPRC
145,000 B/D
REYONGPURE 17,000 B/D

600,000 B/D

200,000 B/D

800,000 B/D

33

o :

o







( / )

- 3434
-

)
(

35

(
(Mean of Platts : MOP Singapore)

Import Parity

+
+

95

+
95 +

95
E 10

95 + ) + 10%

90% (

36

37

Back up # 3

38

39

40


2556
2

/ 16%

+
2%

46%

36%

24%



4,820 MMSCFD

19.1%

14%

6.4%

0.5%

60%

LNG

148,500
868,500

4,820 .
2,930 (61%)
725 (15%)
980 (20%)
185 (4%)
41

2556
*

2556

868,530

12,820

LPG
63,700

76,520

TOP
275,000

STOCK

92,000

148,500

1,077,750

SPRC
150,000
PTTGC
145,000

440,000

18.8%

169,520

12.8%

115,180

11.3%

101,920

6.9%

LPG
62,250

1.3%

11,830

IRPC
215,000
ESSO
170,000

121,500

48.9%

900,700

BCP
120,000
RPC
17,000

18%
3%

2556
*

872,500

360,220
(41%)
141,950
(16%)
LPG
237,100
(27%)

133,230
(15%)

204,430

18%

27,000

LPG
119,600

LPG
190

28,620

84,050

26,500

65,070

..-..42
56

42

+2%

+0.8 %

2556
4,820 .
(980)
20%

LNG (185)
4%

JDA
(725)
-
15%

(2,930)
61%

19.1%

14%

6.4%

0.5%

60%

* 2556

43