2010

,
:
(, ),
, ( , , ,
), ,
copyright,

copyright .




.
:
- . ()
-
- .

.


............................................................................................................................................9
1 ...................................................................................................................................11
..........................................................................................................................................11
................................................................11
1.1

..............................................11

2 ...................................................................................................................................18
1869 1996........................................................................18
1869 1914............................................................................18
: 1873-1881...................................................................................................18
: 1881-1889 .................................................................................................19
: 1889-1900 .....................................................................................................20
: 1900-1912 .................................................................................................20
1919 1938............................................................................21
: 1921-1926..................................................................................................22
: 1926-1937......................................................................................................23
1945 1995............................................................................24
2, 1 1947 2000 ..............................................25
: 1945 -1951 ................................................................................................25
: 1951 1957.................................................................................................26
: 1951 1957 .................................................................................................26
: 1966 -1975 .................................................................................................28
& (): 1975-1988 ..............................................30
( ): 1975-1980 ..........................................................31
( ): 1980-1988 .........................................................33
: 1989 1996 .....................................................................................34
3 ...................................................................................................................................37
3.1 ......................................................................................................................37
3.2 ..........................................................................37
3.3 ........................................................................38
3.4 ...................................................40
3.4.1 VLCC ............................................................................................41
3.4.2 SUEZMAX..............................................................................44
3.4.3 AFRAMAX.................................................................................46
4......................................................................................................................................48

.......................48

4.1 ..........................................................................48
4.2
...............................................49
4.3
...............................................51
4.4
..........................................................................53
4.5 .....................................................................57
4.6 ;.............................61
4.7 ; .............................................................62
5......................................................................................................................................64
.............................................................................64
5.1.1 FORWARD FREIGHT AGREEMENTS (FFAs)............................64

5.1.2 FREIGHT FUTURES...............................66

5.1.3 HYBRID FFAs.............................67
5.1.4 FREIGHT OPTIONS............................68
5.2 ............................................................................................................69
5.3 ..................................................................................................................................70
E.....................................................................................................................................72
..........................................................................................................................72
() ..........................................................................72
.................................................................................................................................77
...........................................................................................................................................79



.


. ,
.

.
,
.

.

,

.

The Shipping circles are a line of changing phases of growth and constriction of
economic activity from the point of profit and employment. Constituting integral piece
of shipping industry and for this reason an economic analysis of ship market would be
insufficient without the study of this so much special phenomenon. They do not
constitute exclusive phenomenon of shipping, but happen in a lot of industries and in
the economy as total.
The reaction of ship owners in the change of world figurative needs is not
perfectly inelastic. The increase of speed of boats and the import of the ships that were
set aside in the limelight constitute the direct reaction of ship owners in case of
increase of transportation needs. Respectively in potential reduction of needs of

transport it will befall ships that will be set aside and reduction of speed of travel in the
level of economic speed. The time that intervenes from the appearance of young
persons of promising changes in the world transportation data up to the time of receipt
of boat from the ship yard, constitutes with the common expectations of ship owners
the beginning of causes for the creation of shipping circles.

.
1873
( )
.

.
,
. ,
.
,

.

.
.
, , , ,
, ,
..
.
.
/, ,
50 1864-1914 1945-1995.

.
- .

9

 ,
.
management
.
cash-flow.
,
, management .
,

.
Hampton

. .


.



,
. , ceteris paribus,

scrap.

.

10

. ,


.
.
""
, .
1 .
, ,
. ,
,
,
. ,

.

1.1

"

1

. (), ,

. , 51-55

11

 ". 1
(), ,
(), (
) . '
.
t1-n = f(, )

1:
.

.
,

.
,
. 1999 280.000
DWT $9.000 , 2000
$90.000 .

12

. "
", , ,
, 2 ,
. ,
.
1950 1974,

. ,
25

. 1980 bulk
tanker '90 tanker ,
. 1997
,
.
,
.
, ,
.
" ",

.
.
,
. '80
.

VLCC

'80 $3 , 1989
$30 , 5 .

, .
;

. (), , .
, 77-83

13

Aframax ( ) (
). 0,87 ,
,
.

3 .

.
. ,
.
, ,
. ""
,
.
.
,
,
, , , .

.

,

.

, , , ,
,
3

. (), , .
, 21-23

14

 .
(6-7).

. 70%
,
.
4
.
, ,
.
Stopford,
,
.

.
. , ,
, scrap
.
,
,
, ..

timing

.
.
,
. timing
,
.

. .., , J+J ,
77-83

15

 ,
timing .
,
.
,

.
5 ,
, ,

.

. cash flow .


,
. cash flow
,
.
,
.
H
.

.

.
.

. .., , J+J ,
101-103

16

 , ,
,
.
,
.
,
, 50% (
80%-90%) , cash
flow
.

, .

.
,

.
,
6 . ,

. , ,
.

.
, .

.
.

. .., , J+J ,
123

17

 2

1869 1996
1869 1996

.

.

1869 1914

.
.
1969 1908.

. , :

7

.

: 1873-1881

1870, 8 . 1871-73
7

18

 .
1874 1879. ,
1877
, 1881.
Mac Gregor, 1878
.
, .

: 1881-1889

8 .
1879 1882,
.
1880-1883. ,
1883
1884.
, 8 ,
,
.

. .., , J+J ,
69

19

 , 1887.
1889.
: 1889-1900

,
11 . 1880
"" . 18
1888 1889.
. 1890,
,
1890. 1895 ,
, .
,
.
.

: 1900-1912

' 1914
, 12 .
1890,
1898, 1900.

1897, 1900

.
, 1900
. 1901,
50% 1900.
1909. ,

20

 , 1906.

""
. ,

.
, 1910,
.
,
.
"" 1911-1912
, 1913,
' .

1919 1938

.
. 1921 1926,

. , 1926 1937,
1930.

21

 : 1921-1926

1920 ,

200

1921.

1 - Biffex
, ,
. 1922, 110 ,

.
1924-1925 ""
1926, 170 .
.
. ,
, 1920-1929
50% 300 . 1920, 470 .
1929. , '
,

22

 . ,
,
,
. ,
.

: 1926-1937
'20,
1930. "Wall Street"
1929,
, ""
'30. 1929 1932
26%,
3 . grt 1930 14 . grt 1932,
21% .
.
"Economist", 110 '20,
80 1937,
50%. 1933,

,
.
" " (distress sales)

.
,
,
.
1935 1937,
,

23

 . 1938,
1,3 . grt,
"Economist" 145 .
.
1938
1937 1938.
1 . grt, 1938 2,5 .
grt.

1945 1995

50 '
7,4
, .

,
. ""
,

. ,
, , ""
.

24

 2, 1 1947 2000

: 1945 -1951

. 1945,
, (sky high levels)
. 1946,
1947
1949,
. 1950 ,

.

25

: 1951 1957

1951,
.
16% , "" .
, , 1952
70% 1951 . 1953,

1951.

. "Liberty" 1944
110.000 1950, 500.000 1951,
230.000 1952.
1954
. (1953) (
1954), 1954.
30%.
' 1955, 1956
,
"" .

: 1951 1957

1957
. 1956 ,

, '30. 1956 (sky high rates),
' 1957 (rock bottom rates).

26

 1967,
.
,
""
,

.
,
1958, ,
,
. 1956,
"tramp" 1957.

"Liberty" ' . 3.000
, 4
. ,
,
. ,

,

.

. ....
4% 1958,
1932. 1957
, -
"" 1955 1956.
, .
1958, 990 . 1959,
1.790 . 1966, 80% 7 . 27

 .
'50,
.
1967 ,
.
, ""
1956,
.
"spot",

.

: 1966 -1975

1967,

.
"" (freight market booms)
,

.
,
(combined carriers)
.
' ,
.
1970 1973
(peaks)
, .

28

 1970, "Tap Line"

,
Sidon 15 . ,

. ,
1973

.
, ""
, 1.807 .
1966 3.233 . 1973, 78% .

. ,
,
. 1971
,
"" 1970. ,

.
1973 .
, "VLCC"
$ 2,5/dwt/ ($ 22.000/) $ 5/dwt/ ($ 50.000/),
40% - 60% ,
.
"Yom Kippur"
1973, ' 1974,
"bulk carriers" 1975.
""
.

29

 & (): 1975-1988

, Yom Kippur
1988,
1979. ,
. ,
70.
, 1973,
225 . dwt,
320 . dwt,
. ,
60 . dwt
.
,
'60 . ,
,
. ,
1973 1979,
. 1985,
30%.


.
14 . 1974
. "VLCC " 270.000 dwt
$ 28.000 ,
$ 11.000 .
50%.
"VLCC" 200.000 dwt 1970, $ 52 . 1973 $ 23 . 1974,
$ 10 . 1975, $ 9 . 1976 $ 5 . 1977.

30

 , .
13,4 . dwt 8,6 . dwt 1979
. ,
,
, "VLCC" 200.000 dwt $ 11 .
1980.
1981-1985,
. (19761981),
80.000 dwt
, .
, 1981
() "spot".
40 . dwt 1982 52 . dwt 1983.
"scrap",
5 6 . 1983
"VLCC" $ 3 . 1985,
"" (sentiment of the market hit rock bottom),
.
1986, . ,
70% "VLCC" 250.000 dwt 8
$ 5 . $ 10 . , 1989
$ 38 .,
. ,
1974 1988
, .

( ): 1975-1980

1975-1995,
.
31

 "bulk carriers" 6 , 1975 1980.

1973 1974 ""
. ,
"spot" 1975
1978. , '
,
(running cost). 1977,
.
1978 ,
1979 1980. 1978
30%, ' 1979
1974.
,
.
7,5% 1979, 2,5%
. ,
1979 ,
,
. ,

.
1980,
.. 100
,
.
,
. ,
1980 50%
1979.

32

 ( ): 1980-1988

""
1981,
. (daily earnings) "Panamax"
$14.000/ , $8.500/ .
..,
. ,
.
,
,
1983 1984 .
1982 ,
" Panamax " $ 4.200/.
1983 .
,
.
, "bulk
carriers" 1983 1984.
"Sanko Steamship"
120 , ,
.
1905 1906
.
1980. ,
, . ,

. , 1983
, . ,
, 1985,
.

33

 ,
.
, 1984,
. ,
"bulk carriers"
,
.
, .
"Panamax" -
$ 6.500 1985,
.
,

. (bank foreclosures) "
" (distress sales) .
""
1986, "Panamax" $ 6 .
$ 28 . 1980.
,
1989-90.
"Panamax" $ 4.400/ 1986, $ 13.200/ 1989.
1986 1989
, (asset
play strategy). "Panamax" $
6,2 . 1986, $ 12 . 1987, $ 17,2 . 1988 $ 23 . 1989.

: 1989 1996

"" 1985
1986,
"" 1989,

34

 . ,
, .
,
(1988 1991) , 55 . dwt
.
.
, "" '70,
20 ,
'90.
,
'80,

. ,
, 1986
"VLCC" $ 40 ., 1990 ""
$ 90 .
,
(long haul sources),
"VLCC". ,
.
70 20 .
'90, "" 15 . dwt
33 . dwt. , ,

(short haul sources) ' . ,
,
1992 1995. ,

1996.
35

 .
1989
.
1989,
1988-1991 24 . dwt ,
55 . dwt .
1992, "bulk carriers"
4 . dwt , 16 . dwt .

1992,
1995. ,

. 1993-1995 55 . dwt .

36

 3
1869-1996

3.1
1869 1996
, .

.

.
(.
)

9 . , ,


.

3.2
2.2
1872 1989 7.1
. 12
.
6.6 1947-89 20
7.6 1872 1936.

. .., , J+J ,
156

37

,
11 , , ,
.
3/4 .
,
.

F.
, .
1, .
1872 2000,
1872-1937
1947 2000.
2,3 ,
2,5 , 2,1
. .
,
95% . 50 ,
2.6 10.6

.
,

.

3.3
10 .
; ,
10

. (), Management , 1 , 2
, 3 - - . , 127-136

38

 2.2,
1869-1994.
1950 .
, 1869-1937, 4 10
.
, 1950-93,
. 25 4 10 .


" " , .
2.2:

()

1873

1881

1881

1889

1889

1900

11

1900

1912

12

1913

1919

1921

1926

1926

1937

11

1939

1945

1945

1951

1952

1957

1957

1966

10

1966

1975

11

1975

1980

12

1980

1989

1872-2000 7.1

2.3

1872-1937 7.6

2.5

1947-2000 6.6

2.1

39

3.4
,

Tankers.

Tankers Tankers
.
tankers
.
2000 ( 2003 3
) , .

,
.

93,7 .

2011 2005 83,3 .,

12,5%.
10 ,
. ,
, .

, 2001 4,7 .
, 10 . 2011.

.
.

(VLCCS),
11 .

11

40


2 :
)
.
( )
.
)
3 tankers
3
.


.

3.4.1 VLCC

41

 1 VLCC

2 VLCC
2006 VLCCs 20000$ 100000$
.
.
.


. 104,
120 (fixtures)
130!

, . 2
(Middle East Gulf/Far East Middle East Gulf/West)
59000$ !!

42

 2 (West Africa/US Gulf West

Africa/East voyages), ,
68000$ , 2005 63000$
.
VLCC .
East of Suez,
, .
2010,
. ,


.
, Middle East Gulf
( )
.
2006 502 VLCCs
, 65% . ( 2005
481 ). 172
35% ,
2008 2009.

43

3.4.2 SUEZMAX

3 SUEZMAX

4 SUEZMAX 1998 2009

44

 VLCCs
2006 ,
. Suesmax 2
, 2006
2 .
,
.
West Africa/US Gulf TCE
44000$/ ( 2005 43000)
VLCC
.
-
67000$/-
21000$/-.
58000$/ ( 2005 65000).
30000$/-
, ,
80000$/.
VLCC, Suezmax
.
,
.
, ,
Suezmax. 2006
Suezmax 352 ( 78%
) 2005 335. 104 Suezmax ,
2009.

45

3.4.4

AFRAMAX

5 AFRAMAX

6 AFRAMAX

46

 Aframax 728
2006 ( Suezmax).
242 Aframax, 11 .
Aframax
, .
Aframax,
2006 - 43450$/-
2005 57000$/-.
tankers . 2004 2005
- 2005 80000$/
120000$/ -.
Aframax 2006 - 60000$ /
80000$/ .
2006 2
.

20000$/ ( ). ,
, .

47

4.1

12

, , ,

. ,

( ).

, .
,
,
.
, ,
.
,
,
, .

,
.
,
.

. ,
12

. (), Management , 1 , 2
, 3 - - . , 62

48



. ,
,

,
.
.

4.2

,
,
.
,
. , ,

.
1953 2001,
, ,
.
1957, 1973(
), 1981( ) 1997( ),
. ,
. , .
13 ,
, ,
,
, (
13

. (), Management , 1 , 2
, 3 - - . , 99-102

49

 ) .
,
, . ,
, ,
.

;
, J. Kitchin 14 (1923). ,
( )
,
.
(
),
.
,
,
.

. ,

, (
), ,
( )
..
, ()
. , 15 ,
,

14

J. Kitcin(1923): Cycles and trends in economics factors, Review of Economic Statistics,

5, pp. 10 16.
15
. (), Management , 1 , 2
, 3 - - . , 91

50

 .
, .
19 Juglar 16 ,
,

,
. Kitchin,
,
.
,
,
,

,
.
, ,
, .
, 1973 1979,
1997 1990-91.
,
.

4.3

.
16

C. Juglar in (1862): Des Crises commerciales et leur retour periodique en France, Angleterre
et aux Etats Units

51

 ,
. ,


17
. ,
, ,

, .

,
,
, .
, ,
,
. ,

. ,
,

,
.
,

, 120 . ,

18 . ;
.
. , 80, ,
17

. (), , , 71-75

18

. (), , , 99115

52

 bulk carriers, ,
1999, .

. , . ,
, ,
.
,
,
.
,
,
.
.
, Pigou 19 ,

. ,
, ,
,
.

,
.

4.4

, .
,
.
1870 1914 1950 1973,
19

Pigou (1927)

53

. ,

.

, :
1.

: ,

50,
.
2.

.
3.

20,
.
4.

: ( ) . ,

30 80,
(
)
-.

:
1 :
3 . ,
.

.

54

 20 .

.

.
20 scrap
.
(1988),

,
,

- -
(

).
.
(1988) 20%
.

2 :
,
,
. - .
.
.

20

. (), , , 55-57

55


. .

3 :

.
.
(Peak)

.

.
3 .

.
(1988)


.
,
.

4:

.

.
.

56

 . (1988),


.
.

,
, .

, ,
.
. ,

, ,
,
.

4.5

,

21
.
: 1)
, ; 2)
;
21

. (), , , 77-83

57

 ,
,
.
1970 .
2002

.
1997-2000 , Hong
Kong Taiwan
.

Kirkaldy (1913)
. (peaks)
(troughs)
, (cash flows).

Fayle (1933)

.. ,
. ,
, .
, ,
(trade boom),
(short shipping boom),
(prolonged slump) .

Cufley (1972)
.
.
, ,
. ,
.

58

 Hampton (1991)
,
.
.
,
, . ,

. ,
. ,

, .
,
.
Nikolai Kondratieff
,
150 . Kondratieff 3
, 50
. 1790, 1844 1895. - 20-30
- 50 .
J.A Schumpter (1939)
, 1
Kondratieff (1790-1813) , 2 (1844-1874)
3 (1895-1914)
.
Stopford (1997)
,

. ,
59

 ,

.
.. (1998)
/
,
Stopford
48 50 60 ,
,
.

2:

1945-1956

1869-1914

1956-1973

1988-2000

1920-1930

1930-1939

1973-1989

60

4.6
;

,
, ,
.

. ,

.

" " ( )
.

1970.
,
, 1973
1979 1999. ,
OECD


.


.

,
1974, 1980 1989 1995
,

, . , ,
,

61

 .
,
. "
,
,
.

4.7 ;
22
, " "
,

.
.


.
10 .

.
23 ,

22
23

. (), , , 12-16
. (), , , 36-39

62

 ,
, .

1931 1983. ,
,
. , OECD
, , ,
...
,
.


.
, ,

.
.

63

5.1.1. Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs)
, ,
,
. ,
, ,
(charterer).

, .
,
.
FFA
.


.
, FFA
. ( )
, FFA.
, ,
()

, ,
.

64

 ,
FFA.
,
.
( )
.
, .
, .
, FFA,
.
FFA 1992.
- (OTC) [

] .
1985 BIFFEX (Baltic
International Freight Futures Exchange).

BFI (Baltic Freight Index).
, - BFI ,
.
Panamax (BPI) 1998,
Capesize (BCI) 1999, Handymax (BHMI)
2000 Supramax (BSI) 2005.


.
,
.

. ,

65

 FFA
.
, tanker FFA

Worldscale, tanker,
, .
,
.
tanker Baltic Exchange
BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) BCTI (Baltic Clean Tanker
Index). 1998.
FFA, ,
OTC,
. credit-risk
.
shipbrokers,
. OTC

.

. OTC ,


.

5.1.2. Freight Futures

OTC FFA,
freight futures,
exchanges IMAREX (International Maritime
Exchange) NYMEX (New York Merchantile Exchange).

66

 IMAREX
, 2000.
(Freight Futures & FFAs) Norwegian Options
Futures Clearing House (NOS)
.
IMAREX

(.. Clarksons, Simpson Spence & Young, Freight Investors Services, .).
2005, NIMEX
tanker freight futures. Baltic Exchange Platts
dirty tanker routes TD3, TD5, TD7, TD9 TD10
clean tanker routes TC1, TC2, TC4, TC5. Singapore Exchange
(SGX) 2006 .

5.1.3. Hybrid FFAs

OTC
FFA, .
FFAs, OTC, LCH
Clearnet. FFA ,
. LCH Clearnet , 13 2005,
, OTC FFAs

. FFAs
LCH Clearnet 4 tanker FFAs, 4 FFAs , 3
FFAs 2
FFAs. FFAs
,
.

67

5.1.4. Freight Options

futures forward contracts, options contracts
.

. freight options
1991 European options contract BIFFEX,
LIFFE (London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange).
BIFFEX
2002.
OTC Options
,
FFA .
FFA. 1
2005 IMAREX Freight Option (IFO)
, TD3, NOS. IFOs
IMAREX NOS,
monthly call put options , .
IFOs Baltic Exchange. ,


,

.
freight option. freight put option freight
call option.

. put option,
.

. , call option,

68

 ( )
.

options. FFAs freight futures, downside cost
.
FFAs freight futures.

5.2
5.2.1.
,
. .

BIFFEX. LIFFE
1985 2002.
. , .
. BIFFEX
,
Haigh .
BIFFEX
.

.
. , cross-hedging . ,
BIFFEX, BFI,
.
, LIFFE
.

, .

69


2004 31%, 1950
World Trade Organization
.
,
scrap.
FFAs.
,
.

.

5.3.
,
dry FFAs, ,
, FFAs.
,
. FFAs
.
.

.

75%
.


. ,
FFAs.

70

 , FFAs

.
FFAs Free On Board .
,

. FFAs
. ,
FFAs .

71

()

,
.
, .

. .
,
, , , ,
, ..
.
.


,

.
,
.

().
:

( &
).
72


.

.

.


,
.
.

.
Capesize BC
, Panmax BC Handysize
BC .
,
, .
( ),
Handymax BC Panamax BC .
()
,
, . ,

.
73

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Costas Th. Grammenos (editor), The Handbook of Maritime Economics
and Business, LLP, London-Hong Kong 2003
Stopford Martin, Maritime Economics, Routledge 1997
John Evans, Quantitative Methods in Maritime Economics,
Peter Marlow (editor), Fairplay Pubns May 1990

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www.lloydslist.com
www.economicsarena.com

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