AU TR VA LUAT

_________________________________
TS. Le Net
Lut s, LCT Lawyers
Ging vin, Trng i hc Lut TP HCM
Net.le@lctlawyers.com

NXB I HC QUC GIA TP HCM 2005

Muc luc

MUC LUC..................................................................................................................................................... 1
LI GII THIEU ........................................................................................................................................ 3
CHNG 1: QUYET NH TRONG NHNG CUOC AU TR THONG THNG ...................... 6
AU TR THONG THNG ...................................................................................................................... 6
THAY OI KET QUA E THAY OI CHIEN LC CUA NGI CHI............................................................. 8
IEM CAN BANG NASH........................................................................................................................ 10
QUY NH CUA PHAP LUAT VA KHAI NIEM TOI U HOA ......................................................................... 12
CUOC AU TR GIA HAI NGI CHI KHONG CO Y NH CONG TAC ..................................................... 13
CUOC AU TR GIA HAI NGI CHI CO Y NH CONG TAC ................................................................. 15
KET LUAN........................................................................................................................................... 17
CHNG 2: MOI TNG QUAN ONG VA CAC CAC CUOC AU TR M RONG ................19
AU TR M RONG VA PHNG PHAP "QUI NAP NGC" ....................................................................... 19
PHNG PHAP "PHONG NGA" VA CAC CAM KET CHIEN LC .............................................................. 21
AU TR TH CAP HOAN CHNH ........................................................................................................... 24
KET LUAN........................................................................................................................................... 26
CHNG 3: TIET LO THONG TIN, YEU CAU CONG BO VA THAO LUAN LAI .......................27
T TNG CH AO HANH ONG.......................................................................................................... 27
KHAI NIEM VE GIAI PHAP CAN BANG HOAN CHNH BAYES .................................................................... 29
THONG TIN C KIEM CHNG, T NGUYEN CUNG CAP THONG TIN VA MANH MOI................................ 32
LUAT YEU CAU CONG BO THONG TIN VA NHNG HAN CHE CUA LUAT ................................................... 33
THONG TIN CO THE QUAN SAT C, QUI PHAM VA VAN E THAO LUAN LAI ........................................ 40
S KHUYEN KHCH TOI U VA VAN E THAO LUAN LAI ........................................................................ 42
HAN CHE KHA NANG THAO LUAN LAI .................................................................................................. 44
KET LUAN........................................................................................................................................... 45
CHNG 4: PHAT TN HIEU, CHON LOC VA S DUNG CAC THONG TIN KHONG KIEM
CHNG C ...........................................................................................................................................47
PHAT TN HIEU VA CHON LOC .............................................................................................................. 47
MO HNH S DUNG THONG TIN KHONG KIEM CHNG C................................................................... 48
PHAT TN HIEU VA VAI TRO CUA CAC QUY NH PHAP LUAT.................................................................. 55
TIET LO THONG TIN VA CAC QUY NH VE VI PHAM HP ONG ............................................................. 57
CHON LOC THONG TIN VA VAI TRO CUA CAC QUY NH PHAP LUAT ...................................................... 59
KET LUAN........................................................................................................................................... 60
CHNG 5: UY TN VA CAC CUOC AU TR LAP LAI .................................................................62
PHNG PHAP QUY NAP VE TRC VA NHNG HAN CHE....................................................................... 62
AU TR LAP LAI, CAU KET NGAM VA "QUI TAC CO" ............................................................................. 65

UY TN, TRNG PHAT VA CONG TAC ..................................................................................................... 68

KET LUAN........................................................................................................................................... 70
CHNG 6: HANH VI TAP THE, CAC CUOC AU TR NGAM VA NHNG HAN CHE CUA
CAC MO HNH N GIAN .....................................................................................................................71
HANH VI TAP THE VA VAI TRO CUA PHAP LUAT .................................................................................... 72
AU TR CHM ..................................................................................................................................... 73
TM HIEU CAU TRUC CUA CAC CUOC AU TR M RONG ....................................................................... 77
HANH VI TAP THE VA THONG TIN RIENG............................................................................................... 81
HANH VI TAP THE TRONG CAC QUYET NH TIEP THEO ......................................................................... 84
HANH VI "THEO UOI"......................................................................................................................... 87
KET LUAN........................................................................................................................................... 89
CHNG 7: THAO LUAN TRONG TRNG HP BAT CONG TAC ............................................90
MO HNH HOA VIEC PHAN CHIA LI TC T THNG MAI ..................................................................... 90
QUY NH CUA PHAP LUAT TAO RA LOI THOAT..................................................................................... 93
MAC CA VA SAP XEP LAI DOANH NGHIEP ............................................................................................. 94
KET LUAN........................................................................................................................................... 95
CHNG 8: THAO LUAN VA THONG TIN .........................................................................................96
CAC MO HNH C BAN CUA TO TUNG ................................................................................................... 96
MO HNH HOA CAC PHIEN TOA XET X VE BOI THNG THIET HAI........................................................ 98
THONG TIN VA THANH KIEN TRONG VIEC CHON LA ............................................................................ 99
TRAO OI THONG TIN VA KIEM CHNG THONG TIN ............................................................................. 100
KET LUAN......................................................................................................................................... 101
KET LUAN - THONG TIN VA CAC HAN CHE CUA LUAT ...........................................................102
NH NGHA ............................................................................................................................................106

Li gii thieu
_________________________________
Chung ta a tng lam quen vi au tr luan (hay con goi la ly thuyet tro chi - game
theory) qua bo phim c giai Oscar nam 2002 - Mot tam hon ep (A Beautiful
Mind). Tien e cua quyen sach nay la au tr luan co the cho chung ta cai nhn cu the
ve anh hng cua phap luat oi vi cach x s cua moi ngi. Phap luat muon c
thc thi can phai "thuan long ngi", co ngha la no phan anh cach x s cua nhng
ngi co ly tr. Nh vay khong nhng chung ta phai hieu luat, ma luat phap cung can
phai hieu cach x s cua chung ta. Khi bien soan quyen sach nay, cac tac gia at ra
hai muc tieu. Th nhat, ly thuyet ve au tr c s dung nh mot cong cu e tm hieu
cac nganh luat, t dan s, hnh s, thng mai en hanh chnh v.v. Th hai, ly thuyet
ve au tr c s dung e d oan nhng x s cua cac chu the khi phap luat thay
oi, tren c s o co the kien ngh thay oi luat hay khong va nen ap dung luat nh
the nao e at c muc ch ma chung ta e ra.
au tr luan c von Neuman va Morgenstein xay dng t nhng nam 1930, tuy
nhien phai en khi John Nash cong bo cac cong trnh cua mnh (1953) th au tr mi
thc s c quan tam nh la mot cong cu kinh te hoc. Nam 1993, John Nash cung
vi John Harsanyi va Reinhardt Selten nhan c giai Nobel kinh te ve nhng ong
gop trong mon au tr luan. Pham vi ng dung cua mon hoc nay rat ln: lam the nao
la chon c ngi mnh tin can, la chon oi tng e ket nap ang, la chon oi
tac e lam an, tm a iem kinh doanh, tm muc tieu quan s cua ke thu e tieu diet,
phat hien nhng hanh vi li dung, tieu cc, tham o lang ph, hay am phan ky ket hp
ong vi oi tac. Trong kinh te, au tr la mot mon hoc phc tap va s dung rat nhieu
cac cong cu toan hoc hien ai. Tuy nhien quyen sach nay c bien soan cho luat gia,
v vay cac cong thc toan hoc c lc bo. Chung toi ch yeu cau ngi oc nh cac
khai niem c ban, suy ngh ve nhng van e phc tap mot cach logic va can than.
Quyen sach nay c bien soan da tren sn cua Game Theory and the Law do D.
Baird, R. Gertner, va R. Picker bien soan nam 1994. Tuy nhien no lc bo bt cac
phan khong quan trong va them nhng thay oi t nam 1994 en nay. ac biet, cac
th du va gi y trong quyen sach a c thay oi va them cho phu hp vi hoan canh
va nhu cau cua Viet nam, cho cac hoc vien muon tm hieu ve au tr, hay cac ng
dung cua no khi ra trng cong tac. Nh en cau "biet mnh biet ngi, tram tran
tram thang" cua Ton T, chung toi tin rang quyen sach nay se rat co ch cho cac ban
khi tm hieu cach suy ngh va cach x s cua moi ngi, va cach van dung phap luat
sao cho co hieu qua nhat.

Mac du au tr luan c e cap rat nhieu trong mon hoc luat va kinh te (law and
economics) tai cac nc phat trien, Viet nam chung ta hien cha co mon hoc nay,
tham ch au tr luan cung cha c giang day ai hoc kinh te. Trong tng lai khi
nhu cau hoi nhap nen kinh te, cung nh nhu cau gan giang day vi thc te cuoc song
tr nen bc xuc, chung toi tin rang luat va kinh te, hay au tr luan se la nhng mon
au tien c nha trng la chon e giang day cho sinh vien.
Quyen sach c chia thanh 8 chng. Chng 1 gii thieu cach ap dung au tr luan
e tm hieu tai sao luat lai quy nh mot van e nh vay. Cong cu cua au tr luan la
cac cuoc au tr hay cac tro chi (games), trong o chung ta phai tm hieu ve ngi
chi (player), chien lc hay cach chi cua tng ngi (strategy) va ket qua (payoff)
trong tng nc i (move). Cac tro chi pho bien nhat la ngi tu (prisoner's
dilemma), san hu (hunt stag) va sap nga (matching pennies). Cac ket luan t
nhng tro chi nay c ap dung vao cac che nh phap luat nh hp ong hay boi
thng ngoai hp ong. Chng 2 xem xet cac chu the x s vi nhau nh the nao khi
mot so trng hp xay ra - th du cac cong ty oc quyen chen ep oi thu canh tranh,
hay ben i vay khong tra c n cho ben vay. T o chung ta tm hieu ky hn hai
loai au tr: au tr gia nhng ngi muon cong tac vi nhau (co-operative game) va
au tr gia nhng ngi muon canh tranh vi nhau (non co-operative game). loai
sau chung ta co the lien he vi nhng bai hoc trong Binh phap Ton t.
Cac chng tiep theo se i vao nhng van e phc tap hn - khi chung ta gia thiet cac
ben cha biet thong tin ve nhau va khong biet phai x s vi nhau the nao. Trong cac
trng hp nh vay, phap luat can phai c quy nh sao cho cac ben t boc lo ban
chat cua mnh (revelation - th du - la ngi dung cam hay hen nhat, la ngi nhiet
tnh hay li dung, la ngi trung thc hay doi tra). Da tren cac thong tin nay ma
chung ta co the ra quyet nh - th du khong giao v tr lanh ao cho nhng ngi hay
li dung. Tuy nhien co the cho ho am nhiem vai tro thng thuyet, v ho de canh
giac ve oi tac hn nhng ngi qua vo t va nhiet tnh. Tng t, cac nha lam luat
co the da vao cac thong tin nay ma ban hanh cac quy nh cho phu hp vi tnh hnh
thc te. Th du khi mot ben b li dung, ho co quyen yeu cau vo hieu hp ong do b
la doi hay e doa, hoac yeu cau am phan lai. o la noi dung cua Chng 3 (au tr
trong hp ong), va Chng 4 (au tr va viec sap xep nhan s).
Chng 5 ban ve anh hng lau dai cua cac quy nh phap luat oi vi hanh vi cua
cac chu the. Th du, luat hp ong hay luat kinh te phai quy nh the nao e cac chu
the yen tam kinh doanh hay cong tac lau dai vi nhau.
Chng 6 ban ve moi tng tac gia cac quy nh cua phap luat, cung nh anh hng
cua mot hanh vi xau oi vi mot hanh vi khac. Cac trng hp nay c goi la hanh

vi tap the hay phan ng day chuyen (domino effect, spillover effect hay collective
action). Pham vi ng dung cua chng nay chu yeu trong cac quy nh ve luat canh
tranh hay luat s hu tr tue.
Chng 7 e cap en cau hoi - lam the nao e cac chu the kinh doanh co the am
phan vi nhau tren tinh than bnh ang va cung co li, trong khi li ch cua ho oi
khang nhau? e tra li cau hoi chung ta s dung ly thuyet ve au tr ve am phan
gia nhng ngi khong cung li ch (non co-operative bargaining), trong o van e
mau chot la tm thong tin ve oi tac. Pham vi ng dung cua chng nay la trong luat
doanh nghiep, au t nc ngoai, ngan hang, bao hiem hay pha san.
Chng 8 tiep tuc ban ve van e tng tac trong mot moi trng bien ong (dynamic
bargaining), trong o cac quy nh cua phap luat phai d lieu rang mot ben co thong
tin nhng khong muon cho ben kia biet. o cung la van e ve thong tin bat oi xng
(asymmetric information), de nay sinh ra viec li dung (moral hazard). Pham vi ng
dung cua chng nay la luat hnh s (ve cac toi lam dung chc quyen), phap lenh
chong tham nhung, thc hanh tiet kiem, chong lang ph, hay trong cac quy nh to
tung (thu tuc kham xet, cung cap chng c).
Cac chng c trnh bay t nhng khai niem n gian en phc tap. Mac du au tr
luan ngay nay c nghien cu nhieu tren khia canh thong tin bat oi xng, chung ta
nen bat au t mot khung suy luan n gian - thong tin oi xng - ngha la cac chu the
biet ro thong tin ve nhau. o la cach chung toi bat au Chng 1.
Le Net
Soan tai London School of Economics
Thang 4-2003

Chng 1: Quyet nh trong nhng cuoc au tr thong

thng
au tr thong thng
Van e n gian nhat trong au tr la nghien cu cach x s gia hai ngi. Moi
ngi phai quyet nh se lam g ma khong phai hoi ngi kia ang lam g. Th du hai
chiec xe i ngc chieu trong mot con ng nho - mot ngi nen dng e nhng
ngi kia, lach sang hai phia khac nhau, hay am au vao nhau? Hoac mot ngi i
xe gap ngi i bo qua ng th ai nen nhng ai? Neu khong co phap luat, co le
moi ngi se tm cach x s theo y mnh thch. Tuy nhien, do co cac quy nh ve boi
thng thiet hai do nguon nguy hiem cao o gay ra, ngi i xe phai y thc ma
nhng ngi i bo, cha can biet ai ung luat giao thong, ai sai. Nh vay ro rang
phap luat co anh hng oi vi cuoc "au tr" gia ngi i xe va ngi i bo, sao cho
ca hai cung co li.
Tat nhien e phap luat thc s co anh hng, chung ta can mot so giai thiet, o la
moi ngi phai hieu ro cac quy nh cua phap luat, va cac quy nh nay c Nha
nc bao am thc thi. Da tren cac gia thiet nay, chung ta co the ap dung au tr
luan cho nhieu trng hp khac (tn dung, au t, kinh doanh) gia cac chu the. Ho
phai suy ngh cac x s sao cho co li cho ban than ho, va phap luat phai nghien cu
cac quy nh sao cho khi cac ben suy ngh ve li ch cua mnh va hanh ong, th ket
qua se la co li cho ca hai ben, ch khong phai ch co li cho mot ben va ben kia b
chen ep.
Ban chat cua au tr luan la dung cac mo hnh n gian e khai quat hoa cac hanh vi
cua con ngi va ly giai tai sao cac ho lai co nhng hanh vi nh vay. Nh vay, s
dung au tr luan cung giong nh s dung mot ban o e tm ng i trong thanh
pho. Ban o khong can phai chnh xac hay cu the ve toa o ng pho hay khoang
cach gia cac con ng, nhng no phai cung cap c cho ngi s dung nhng
thong tin can thiet (v du - co may con ng e i t Nha th c ba en San Bay
Tan sn Nhat). Da tren thong tin o ma chung ta ra quyet nh. Phap luat can thiep
vao qua trnh quyet nh nay cung tng t nh thay oi chiec "ban o" trong au
chung ta.
e nghien cu mot cuoc au tr (hay con goi la mot tro chi), chung ta can e y en
ba yeu to:
Ngi chi (player).
1)
2)
Cach chi hay chien lc cua tng ngi (strategy).

3)

Ket qua (payoff) cua tng ngi sau khi ap dung cach chi.

Mot cuoc au tr goi la "thong thng" (normal form game) khi no bao gom ba yeu to
tren, bat ke cuoc au tr nay c tien hanh bao nhieu lan.
Trong cuoc au tr gia ngi i xe va ngi i bo co hai ngi chi. Ngi i xe co
hai cach chi: hoac la nhan ga lao ti ngi i bo, hy vong ngi nay se nhng mnh,
hoac la phanh lai nhng ngi i bo. Ngi i bo co hai cach chi: hoac bang qua
ng ngay (co the b thng - cha benh het 1 trieu ong), hoac ch ngi i xe i
qua (ton thi gian - mat 100 ong). Van e cua cuoc au tr la ca hai phai quyet nh
cung mot luc. Ket qua co hai kha nang xay ra: hoac hai ngi am nhau, hoac ca hai
an toan. Neu phap luat khong can thiep vao cuoc au tr nay, th ket qua se luon co
li cho ngi i xe. V the ngi i bo se ap dung mot chien lc duy nhat la nhng
ngi i xe. Neu phap luat quy nh ngi i xe phai boi thng cho ngi i bo neu
hai ngi ung nhau, ngi i xe se phai suy tnh xem nen tang ga hay giam ga. Do
ket qua cua cach chi tang ga (co the phai boi thng - 1 trieu ong) thap hn cach
chi ap phanh (khong phai boi thng - nhng ton xang - mat 100 ong), ngi i xe
se chon chien lc nhng ngi i bo. S dung bang e phan tch th chung ta se co
cac ket qua (ngi i bo trc, ngi i xe sau) neu ngi i xe khong phai chu trach
nhiem ve viec mnh lam nh sau:

Ngi
i bo

Khong can than

Can than

Ngi i xe
Khong can than Can than
-1000000, 0
-1000000, -100
-1000100, 0
-100,-100

Theo bang phan tch th cach chi co li nhat cho ngi i xe trong trng hp tren la
"khong can than" Khai niem cach chi luon co li nhat trong moi trng hp c
goi la "chien lc toi u" (dominant strategy). nh ngha au tien ve au tr la: ngi

chi se chon chien lc toi u bat c luc nao kha nang cho phep va se khong chon
chien lc ma ch co li cho phia ben kia.

Ngi i bo biet la ngi i xe se khong can than, va tot nhat la mnh nen can than.
Tuy nhien o khong phai la chien lc toi u, v neu ngi i xe can than th cach
chi tot nhat cho ngi i bo la khong can than (tiet kiem c 100 ong). Nh vay
ngi i bo khong co chien lc toi u tuyet oi, ma chien lc cua anh ta se tuy
thuoc vao chien lc cua ngi i xe. Tat nhien khi ngi i bo biet chien lc toi u
cua ngi i xe la "khong can than" anh ta se chon "can than." Cach suy luan nay bat
au cho mot khai niem goi la toi u lap lai (iterated dominance): ngi chi gia thiet

rang ben kia se chon chien lc toi u, va se co phan ng da tren gia thiet nay.
Ngi kia cung da tren phan ng nay ma co bien phap oi pho tng ng. en lt
7

ngi au tien, anh ta cung phai lap lai gia thiet cua mnh 1 lan na, va c the suy
luan en vo cung. Th du: ngi i bo biet ngi i xe khong can than va se phai can

than. Ngi i xe biet ngi i bo se can than va lai cang khong can than. Ngi i
bo lai cang phai can than hn, ngi i xe cang khong can than, va c the tiep tuc.
Tom lai, moi ngi chi eu cho rang ben kia hanh ong co li nhat cho ho (strictly
rational).

Trong mot cuoc au tr, gia s ca hai biet trc ve hau qua ma hanh vi cua mnh
mang lai va biet cach chi cua ngi kia, th cuoc au tr nh vay la hoan chnh (ve
hau qua) va tuyet oi (ve thong tin) - complete and perfect information. Neu ngi
chi ch biet trc hau qua nhng khong biet cach chi cua ngi kia th cuoc au tr
la hoan chnh khong tuyet oi (complete but imperfect information). Neu ho khong
biet c ca hau qua lan cach chi th cuoc au tr la khong hoan chnh va khong
tuyet oi (incomplete and imperfect information).
Thay oi ket qua e thay oi chien lc cua ngi chi
Cho du ngi i bo co can than, anh ta van co kha nang b ngi i xe am phai.
Cach co li nhat cho ca hai ben la ca hai cung phai can than, nhng e bao am ay
se la cach chi ca hai cung la chon, can phai co s can thiep cua phap luat. Bang
cach quy nh ngi i xe phai boi thng ngi i bo, khoan tien 1 trieu ong se
c chuyen t ngi i bo (thiet hai) sang ngi i xe (tien boi thng thiet hai) va
bang phan tch se tr thanh:

Ngi
i bo

Khong can than

Can than

Ngi i xe
Khong can than Can than
0, -1000000
0, -1000100
-100,
- -100,-100
1000000

Nh vay thay oi quy nh cua phap luat co the lam thay oi hanh vi cua chu the va
"giai quyet cuoc au tr" (solution concepts), cho du la cung mot hoan canh s viec.
Khi nay ngi i bo co chien lc toi u (khong can than). Neu ngi i xe trong moi
trng hp, he ung phai ngi i bo, eu phai boi thng cho du la do loi cua ngi
i bo, anh ta se co chien lc toi u la khong can than, va chac chan se am phai
ngi i bo. Nh vay cach giai quyet cua phap luat trong trng hp nay khong phai
la toi u.
Trong cuoc song chung ta gap rat nhieu trng hp quy nh thieu can bang nh vay.
Th du Phap lenh cong chc quy nh rat nhieu ve cach thi tuyen cong chc, nhng lai
khong quy nh chat che khi nao th cong chc b sa thai khoi ngach. Nh vay ngi

lam viec hp ong se no lc e thi vao ngach cong chc, nhng sau o se thieu no lc
trong cong viec. Tng t, Ngh nh ve au t trong nc quy nh he san xuat kinh
doanh mot so nganh nge th c u ai thue, nhng lai khong quy nh khi t y giai
the trong thi han c hng u ai th phai hoan tra cac khoan u ai cho nha nc.
ieu nay se tao ra ke h cho doanh nghiep li dung. Mot th du na la cac quy nh
ve to chc hoat ong cua mot so c quan nha nc quy nh rat nhieu ve quyen han,
nhng lai khong quy nh trach nhiem neu l la khong thc hien quyen han cua mnh.
ieu nay lam nay sinh c che xin-cho: mot ben ch co quyen ma khong co ngha vu,
va ben kia th ngc lai.
Tr lai vi cuoc au tr gia ngi i bo va ngi i xe. Phap luat co the giai quyet
theo hng ngi i bo ch c boi thng neu anh ta a can than va ngi i xe
khong can than. Bang phan tch gi ay tr thanh:

Ngi
i bo

Khong can than

Can than

Ngi i xe
Khong can than Can than
-1000000, 0
-1000000, -100
-100,
- -100,-100
1000000

Trong trng hp nay, ngi i bo co chien lc toi u la "can than," trong khi ngi
i xe khong co chien lc toi u. Neu ap dung cach suy luan toi u lap lai, th ngi
i xe se phai can than (e khong b boi thng). Tuy nhien ay cung cha phai la toi
u, v ke ca khi ca hai cung can than, th ngi i xe van co the am vao ngi i bo,
nh vay ngi i bo se khong dam ra ng, va o cung khong phai la ieu phap luat
mong muon. Trong cuoc song chung ta cung gap nhieu quy nh "qua ta" nh vay.
Th du Thong t 825/2000 cua Bo Khoa hoc Cong nghe Moi trng qui nh neu c
quan thc thi quyen s hu tr tue ma gay nen thiet hai cho oi tng b thc thi th
phai boi thng. ieu nay se lam cho cac c quan phai can than khi thc thi. Nhng
neu "qua can than" se dan en ngai thc thi, va van nan xam pham quyen s hu tr
tue khong c giai quyet.
e tm cach giai quyet toi u, phap luat co the quy nh rang ngi i xe phai boi
thng trong moi trng hp am phai ngi i bo, tr khi ngi i bo hoan toan co
loi. o cung la quy nh ieu 627 BLDS. Bang phan tch gi ay tr thanh:

Ngi
i bo

Khong can than

Can than

Ngi i xe
Khong can than Can than
-1000000, 0
-1000000, -100
-100,
- -100,-200
1000000
9

Ket qua co thay oi so vi bang phan tch trc o, v ngi i xe phai can than hn
(phai kiem tra phanh trc khi i, va phai tap trung cao o khi lai xe e loai tr moi
kha nang xay ra). Tuy nhien oi lai ngi i bo se an tam hn khi ra ng. Nh vay
thay oi quy nh cua phap luat co the lam thay oi hanh vi cua chu the tham ch ca
khi ket qua t thay oi. Tr lai th du cua Thong t 825. Thay v quy nh c quan thc
thi phai boi thng, co the quy nh c quan thc thi ch boi thng khi do loi co y cua
mnh gay ra.
iem can bang Nash
cuoc au tr tren, chung ta co the ket hp hai giai phap (ngi i xe ch boi thng
neu co loi va ngi i xe phai boi thng tr trng hp loi hoan toan thuoc ve ngi
i bo) bang 1 giai phap trung hoa. o la tien boi thng se c giam theo t le loi.
Th du neu ca hai tng oi (hi) can than hoac eu khong can than, moi ben se chu
mot na tien thiet hai. Chi ph cho viec "hi" can than la 50 ong. Bang phan tch se
tr thanh:
Ngi i xe
Khong can than Hi can than
Can than
Khong can than -500000,-500000 -1000000,-50
-1000000, -100
Ngi
Hi can than
-50,-1000000
-500000,-500000 -1000050,-100
i bo
Can than
-100,-1000000
-100,-1000050
-100,-200
Khi nay, ca hai ben eu khong co chien lc toi u tuyet oi, ma ch co toi u tng
oi. Neu 1 ben chon cach chi "khong can than", ben kia se co chien lc toi u
tng oi la "hi can than." Tuy nhien neu ap dung suy luan "toi u lap lai," th ben
au tien se khong bao gi chon "khong can than" (v nh the ch co li cho ben kia),
ma anh ta se phai chon "can than." Tng t ben kia biet vay se chon "can than."
Nh vay "can than" se la ong chien lc toi u cho ca hai ben. Chien lc nay la toi
u cho moi trng hp ma ben kia chon. Cach giai quyet nay goi la can bang Nash
(Nash equilibrium), ngha la chien lc an toan nhat oi vi moi s la chon cua oi
phng. ay la nh luat quan trong nhat cua au tr luan. Tm iem can bang Nash
la tm c bai giai cua cuoc au tr, bi v neu li giai khong v tr can bang th
mot trong cac ben se li dung s bat can bang e thay oi chien lc. Theo o, ben
kia cung phai co oi phap tng ng. C "toi uu lap lai" nh vay chung ta se phai tien
en iem can bang Nash, tng t nh con lac dao ong cho en khi can bang.
Tuy nhien khong phai moi trng hp ch co mot chien lc an toan nhat. Co nhieu
cuoc au tr khong co chien lc an toan nhat, ma co nhieu chien lc an toan tng
ng. Ta goi o la cac iem can bang Nash (Nash equilibria). Cuoc au tr "anh va
em" (battle of the sexes) la mot th du. Nam (anh) va Mai (em) d nh i chi ngay
10

chu nhat vi nhau. Nam thch i xem a bong, con Mai thch i mua sam. Gia s gia
tr cua s thch o c bang n v, th Nam i xem a bong mot mnh hay Mai i
mua sam mot mnh co gia tr bang 2. Neu ca hai cung i xem a bong th Nam co gia
tr bang 5 va Mai co gia tr bang 3 (v Mai khong thch a bong lam). Neu ca hai cung
i mua sam th Mai co gia tr bang 5 va Nam co gia tr bang 3. Bang phan tch se cho
ta thay ca hai tha i chung v cai mnh khong thch con hn i mot mnh v cai mnh
thch:
Nam
a bong
Mua sam
a bong
3, 5
0, 2
Mai
Mua sam
2, 0
5, 3
ay ca hai ngi khong co mot iem can bang Nash duy nhat ma co hai iem can
bang Nash nh nhau (ca hai cung i mua sam hoac cung i xem a bong). Ban co the
phan bien rang tren thc te co the Nam se nhng Mai va ca hai cung i mua sam.
Tuy nhien e tnh yeu vng ben, Nam khong the nhng Mai mai, va Mai cung
khong the oi hoi Nam nhieu qua. Nh vay neu cuoc au tr "anh va em" keo dai
vo tan th Nam nhng Mai lan nay va Mai nhng Nam lan khac. Se khong co mot
iem can bang Nash duy nhat, ma se co hai iem can bang Nash tng ng nhau.
Tat nhien ieu nay ch ung chng nao Mai va Nam con quan tam en nhau. Tng
t, cau chuyen gia Nam va Mai co the ap dung cho hai oi tac trong mot hp ong,
hay ben Viet nam va ben nc ngoai trong mot cong ty lien doanh.
Ap dung cuoc au tr nay vap phap luat, chung ta se thay luat hon nhan gia nh quy
nh ca hai v chong eu bnh ang ve quyen va ngha vu. Ngoai ra, trong luat hp
ong cung quy nh khi giao ket hp ong phai da tren tinh than bnh ang. ieu 14
cua Luat au t Nc ngoai va Viet nam cung quy nh la oi vi nhng van e quan
trong th cac ben lien doanh phai nhat tr thong qua, ch khong c thong qua bang
phng phap bieu quyet a so. Muc ch cua nhng quy nh nh vay la e cho cac
ben khi quyet van e g cung phai lu y en quyen li cua phia ben kia. Nh vay
phap luat co the thay oi hanh vi cua cac ben sao cho iem can bang Nash cua ho co
phu hp vi y ch cua phap luat. o cung la khai niem "phng phap ieu chnh cua
luat" ma chung ta a hoc trong bai 1 cua mon luat dan s.
Tuy nhien tren thc te e hanh vi cua cac ben phu hp vi iem can bang Nash th
khong ch can co phap luat, ma can phai thoa man ba gia thiet:
1)
Moi ngi chi phai biet suy luan co ly, va phai tin rang nhng ngi
khac cung biet suy luan co ly va x s theo suy luan o.
2)
Khi dung luat e ieu chnh hanh vi cua cac ben, th ngi lam luat
phai nam c chien lc va ket qua cua tng cach chi cua nhng
ngi chi.

11

3)

Cac nhan to ngoai lai se khong lam thay oi ket qua tr s tac ong cua
phap luat, va ngoai cac d kien ma chung ta biet khong con d kien
nao khac e lam thay oi chien lc cua cac ben. Gia thiet nay trong
kinh te goi la ceteris paribus.

Muc ch cua cac gia thiet la e n gian hoa bai toan ve au tr. Tuy vay ieu nay
khong co ngha la au tr luan khong ap dung c trong thc te. Trong toan hoc, cac
bai toan phc tap co the c qui ve cac dang n gian bang cach c lc hay at an
so phu. Khoa hoc xa hoi phc tap hn khoa hoc t nhien cho so lng bien so va an
so nhieu hn, nhng khong can phai chnh xac giong nh khoa hoc t nhien. Cai ma
khoa hoc xa hoi, trong o co phap luat, giai quyet - la tm ra c hng ung e i.
Vi cach nhn nh vay, au tr luan la mot cong cu hu dung e tm hieu hanh vi va
moi quan he gia ngi vi ngi, tren c s o ieu chnh chung cho phu hp vi y
ch cua phap luat.
Quy nh cua phap luat va khai niem toi u hoa
Tr lai cuoc au tr gia ngi i xe va ngi i bo, chung ta thay phap luat co the
ieu chnh sao cho ho cang can than th cang t phai chu trach nhiem dan s. Ngha
la "can than" phai tr thanh chien lc toi u duy nhat cho ca hai ngi. Khi mot
trong hai ben t can than, kha nang ho se phai boi thng thiet hai cao hn, nh vay
ho phai biet suy tnh macan than hn. Tat nhien khi ca hai cung can than th kha
nang xay ra am nhau cung t hn, va v the cach giai quyet nay co li nhat cho ca hai
ben va cho ca xa hoi. Khi mot trong hai ben "qua can than", ho se nhan ra rang ho
ch lam tang chi ph cho viec nay ma khong em lai hieu qua g hn la "can than." V
the ho se t ieu chnh mc can than tng ng vi phia ben kia.
Neu 1 ben tm ra c mot chien lc toi u khac th ket qua se ngc lai vi nhng
g phap luat mong muon. Trong trng hp nay chung ta noi phap luat khong co hieu
qua (khong toi u hoa cach x s cua moi ngi). Tom lai phap luat ieu chnh co
hieu qua nhat la khi no hp long ngi - hay chung ta goi la "khi day cac nguon lc
trong xa hoi." Luat doanh nghiep ban hanh nam 2000 la mot trong nhng v du nh
vay. Luat a khi day ban chat nang ong tm c hoi lam giau cua moi ngi. Sau
khi luat ra i, hang chuc nghn doanh nghiep a c thanh lap, tao ra cong an viec
lam cho hang trieu ngi dan, mot viec ma neu Nha nc ch giai quyet bang au t
trc tiep th se ton rat nhieu tien cua ma khong co hieu qua bang. Trong khi o viec
giai quyet nan un tac giao thong TP. Ho Ch Minh lai la mot phan v du. Nam 1998
UBND Thanh pho giao cho cong ty xay dng m rong ng ien bien phu - dai
2km. Theo tieu chuan quoc te th xay dng 2km ng ch het t 2 en 3 trieu USD.
Trong khi o gia thanh xay dng thc te la 5,5 trieu USD, va tien en bu la 100 trieu

12

USD (chien 50 phan tram ngan sach xay dng c ban cua thanh pho!).1 Cach giai
quyet nh vay khong co hieu qua, trong khi e giai quyet nan un tac giao thong
Nga t Phu nhuan hay Nga t Bay hien ch can phan luong giao thong va ieu chnh
gi i lam la a co ket qua ro ret. Neu UBND Thanh pho nghien cu ky cach s
dung ng pho cua ngi i ng (chien lc toi u cua ho), so sanh ket qua ap
dung chnh sach (m rong ng hay ieu chnh bang phap luat) th a co the tranh
lang ph mot khoan tien ln cho ngan sach.
Cuoc au tr gia hai ngi chi khong co y nh cong tac
Tren thc te, phap luat phai giai quyet nhieu van e phc tap hn la cuoc au tr gia
ngi i xe va ngi i bo. Th du trong viec tm a iem xay dng Nha may loc dau
so 1 cua Viet nam, hay chon giai phap noi Quan 1 vi Thu Thiem (lam ham hay bac
cau), chung ta phai tnh en nhieu yeu to. Khong ch hieu qua kinh te ma con hieu
qua xa hoi va nhng li ch lau dai i kem. Tuy nhien thong thng cac cuoc au tr
phc tap o eu co the c giai quyet bang cach qui ve cac dang au tr n gian
gia hai ngi vi nhau. Ngi ta phan cac cuoc au tr nay thanh hai dang: au tr
gia nhng ngi chi khong co y nh cong tac (non co-operative game) va au tr
cua nhng ngi chi co y nh cong tac (co-operative game).2 Trc ay Mao Trach
ong cung phan biet cac loai mau thuan thanh mau thuan noi bo (co-operative game)
va mau thuan ch-ta (non co-operative game).
au tr gia ngi i xe va ngi i bo la au tr gia hai ngi khong co y nh cong
tac. Neu khong co phap luat quy nh th ngi i xe se ch hanh ong sao cho co li
nhat cho mnh bat ke hau qua gay ra cho ngi khac. Mot th du la nan ua xe trc
ay cung vay. Do che tai qua nhe lai thc thi khong nghiem, nen mac du lc lng
canh sat ton rat nhieu cong sc nhng van khong dep bo c te nan nay. Ke t khi
co quy nh se tch thu cac xe may tham gia ua xe ban lay tien ho tr cho qu giup
ngi tan tat, nan ua xe a giam han. Nh vay e giai quyet cuoc au tr gia nhng
ngi khong co y nh cong tac, can phai tm ra li ch chung cho hai ngi neu ho
cong tac hay moi e doa chung neu ho khong cong tac. Trong cuoc au tr gia ngi
i xe va ngi i bo, moi e doa chung cua ho la nhng thiet hai ve kinh te neu ho
khong tuan thu phap luat.
Neu cac ben khong co mot li ch chung hay moi e doa chung nao, ho se ngh en
chuyen li dung nhau. Neu chung ta ap cach suy luan "toi u lap lai", th ca hai se
ngh en chuyen li dung lan nhau va ket qua se bat li cho ca hai. Mot th du c ban
ve au tr gia hai ngi chi khong co y nh cong tac la au tr "nghi pham"
(prisoner's dilemma). Hai nghi pham trong mot vu cp ang trong qua trnh ieu
1
2

Bao Quan oi Nhan dan ngay 9-4-2003.

Binmore, K. (1996) Selective Essays on Game Theory. MIT Press.

13

tra. Muc ch cua ieu tra vien la lam sao cho ca hai nhan toi. e thc hien ieu nay,
ieu tra vien cach ly hai nghi pham hai phong khac nhau, va thong bao rang neu ca
hai cung nhan toi, moi ngi se b tuyen an 6 nam tu. Neu mot ngi nhan toi con
ngi kia khong nhan toi, ngi nhan toi se c khoan hong, con ngi "ngoan co"
se b phat 10 nam tu. Neu ca hai cung khong nhan toi th moi ngi se chu 2 nam tu.
Xet ve li ch cua cac nghi pham th tot nhat la ho khong nen nhan toi. Tuy nhien v
ho khong c noi chuyen vi nhau nen khong biet ngi kia se noi g vi ieu tra
vien. Ho khong muon khong nhan toi roi phai ngoi tu 10 nam trong khi ngi kia
phan boi lai ho va c tha. Bang phan tch se cho ta thay ket qua nh sau:

Im lang
Nghi
pham 1 Nhan toi

Nghi pham 2
Im lang
-2, -2
0, -10

Nhan toi
-10, 0
-6,-6

Trong cuoc au tr tren, cac nghi pham se phai tm chien lc an toan nhat cho mnh
khi biet ngi kia ch ngh en quyen li cua ban than ho. Neu nghi pham 2 im lang
th oi sach tot nhat cua nghi pham 1 la nhan toi. Ngc lai neu nghi pham 2 nhan toi
th oi sach tot nhat cua nghi pham 1 cung la nhan toi. Nh vay chien lc toi u cua
nghi pham 1 la nhan toi. Suy luan tng t cung ap dung cho nghi pham 2. Cuoi cung
iem can bang Nash cua cuoc au tr la ca hai cung nhan toi, chu 6 nam tu.
Ket qua tren co ve hai hc, song thc te lai la chuyen xay ra nhieu trong thc te,
nhat la oi vi viec khai thac tai san cong cong (public good) ma Hardin goi la te nan
"cua cong khong ai lo" (tragedy of the common). Th du ngi dan Ban Me thuot co
hai kha nang - mot la pha rng lam ray (tng ng vi "nhan toi" trong cuoc au tr
ngi tu), va hai la bao ve rng (tng ng vi "im lang"). Neu mot ngi pha rng
con ngi kia bao ve rng, th ngi bao ve rng cung khong c li g, con ngi
pha rng th c li. Neu ca hai cung bao ve rng th o la giai phap toi u, song v
khong ai tin la ngi kia se khong li dung mnh nen cuoi cung moi ngi se bat
chc nhau pha rng (neu phap luat khong can thiep). Chung ta cung de dang nhan
thay au tr "nghi pham" xuat hien nhieu trng hp khi phap luat khong can thiep
hay can thiep khong co hieu qua. Th du: gia cac cong chc thoai hoa bien chat
(nhan hoi lo hay khong nhan hoi lo), gia nhng ngi dan trong mot khu du lch (xa
rac hay khong xa rac), ngi xem phim VCD (mua a goc hay ia sao chep lau).
Tam ly chung cua nhng ngi nay la: neu mnh lam tot th cung chang c li ch
g, v the tai sao khong i theo chieu hng xau. T cho mot ngi co hanh vi xau
nhng khong b trng phat se tao tien le e nhieu khac noi theo va hanh vi xau nay se
tr thanh nhng hanh ong cua tap the (collective action). Nhieu vu an hnh s ve toi
tham nhung c xet x, trong o co trng hp ca mot n v thoai hoa bien chat la
nhng th du ien hnh ve hanh ong tap the.
14

Cuoc au tr gia hai ngi chi co y nh cong tac

Trai vi cuoc au tr gia nhng ngi khong co y nh cong tac, nhng ngi co y
nh cong tac cung phai au tr vi nhau trong hai trng hp: hoac la ho phai la
chon mot trong hai iem can bang Nash, hoac ho phai xem ngi kia hanh ong the
nao e co oi sach tng ng.
au tr "anh va em" nh a trnh bay tren la dang au tr th nhat. ay Nam va
Mai thong nhat la se cung i chi vi nhau (can bang Nash), cai ma ho phai quyet
nh la nen i xem a bong (Nam co li hn) hay i mua sam (Mai co li hn). Tong
li ch cua ca hai ngi la mot hang so khong oi (5 + 3 = 8). Khi mot ngi c li
hn 2 n v th ngi kia kem 2 n v. Hai giai phap can bang Nash tng ng
cho ca hai ngi, nhng khong tng ng cho tng ngi. Cuoc chi nh vay goi la
au tr hang so (zero-sum game). Khi nay ca hai Nam va Mai ch co mot chien lc
duy nhat (pure strategy equilibirum).
Dang au tr th hai la au tr bien oi (non zero-sum game) va khi nay hai ngi chi
khong ap dung mot chien lc duy nhat, ma linh ong ap dung nhieu chien lc khac
nhau, tuy vao ngi kia se s dung chien lc g. Chien lc nay c goi la chien
lc linh ong - mixed strategy equilibrium). Mot thi du la cuoc au tr "san hu."
Hai ngi th san can hp tac vi nhau e san 1 con hu. Neu san c, ca hai se
chia oi li tc, moi ngi 10 n v. Tuy nhien e san tho th khong can phai en hai
ngi, va li ch cua ngi san tho la 8 n v. Gia s ang trong luc san hu th mot
con tho xuat hien. Neu 1 ngi bo hu san tho th ngi kia se khong bat c hu.
V the ngi th hai cung phai bo hu san tho, va hai ngi se chia chung con tho
bat c (moi ngi 4 n v). Bang phan tch cuoc au tr nay nh sau:

Th san Hu
Tho
1

Th san 2
Hu
10, 10
8, 0

Tho
0, 8
4, 4

Theo bang tren, ca hai ngi th san cung phai ap dung chien lc linh ong. Th san
1 ch san hu neu th san 2 cung san hu, con ngc lai ca hai se cung san tho. Tat
nhien sau khi chia oi con tho bat c, ca hai se khong hai long, va thoa thuan lan
sau se cung san hu. Nh vay trong cuoc au tr nay khong co g chac la moi th san
se ap dung mot chien lc duy nhat.
Neu tnh xac suat cac lan san chung ta se co ket qua chnh xac la kha nang nao se
xay ra nhieu hn. Th du goi p1 la xac suat san hu cua ngi th nhat, 1 - p1 la xac

15

suat san tho, th tong hai xac suat se la: EPV (expected profit value) = 10p1 + 8(1-p1)
= 8 + 2p1 > 8 > 4 (li ch khi ca hai cung san tho). Th vay cho du la chon xac suat
the nao th s dung chien lc linh ong cung tot hn la ch ap dung mot chien lc
duy nhat la san tho. Tuy vay neu ch ap dung chien lc san hu th co kha nang se
b ngi th hai li dung khi ngi nay quyet nh "anh le." Sau khi tnh toan xac
suat, ca hai th san co the se i en cung mot ket luan la nen gianh 1 na thi gian
san hu va mot na thi gian san tho. Ket luan nay goi la trung iem (focal point)
hay iem Schelling.
au tr "san hu" the hien kha nhieu trong cuoc song. Trong van e phong thu quoc
gia, ieu nay the hien qua cau noi cua Mao Trach ong "ngi khong ung en ta, th
ta khong ung en ngi" (ca hai se ap dung cung mot chien lc). Trong kinh
doanh, ieu nay the hien qua viec thanh vien to chc xuat khau dau mo the gii
OPEC quyet nh tang hay giam san lng dau. Neu OPEC quyet nh giam san
lng, ma mot trong cac thanh vien nh "anh le" bang cach tang san lng dau, th
A-rap Xe-ut se tang san lng dau tng ng, lam giam gia dau va giam doanh thu
cho nc "anh le." Trong th trng chng khoan cac tay chi chng khoan nho bao
gi cung quan sat ong thai cua cac tay chi chng khoan ln e co oi sach tng t.
Th trng nong san cung vay, va vu kien ca ba sa la mot th du. Hiep hoi thuy san
(VASEP) ch co the theo uoi vu kien neu toan bo cac thanh vien nhat tr, neu khong
ho se khong theo uoi vu kien ma se tm cach thng lng vi Hiep hoi nghe ca My
(CFA). iem sai lam cua VASEP la a tin rang Bo thng mai My (DOC) se ra phan
quyet cong bang. V DOC la mot c quan chnh phu, ho co quyen li trong viec danh
c cam tnh cua ngi dan My - cu the la CFA. o la nhng ngi se bo phieu bau
Tong thong - anh hng gian tiep en bau bo trng Thng mai. Nh vay kha nang
DOC co the "lay long" CFA e kiem phieu bau nhieu hn la se cong tac vi VASEP
tren tinh than thien ch. V cuoc au tr gia VASEP va DOC la au tr gia hai ngi
khong co y nh cong tac (DOC khong can phai cong tac vi VASEP), nen iem co
li cho ca hai ben la khong co. Ngc lai, neu VASEP tac ong Vietnam Airlines
hoan hp ong mua 4 may bay Boeing 777 cua My va gan viec nay vi thoa thuan ve
ca ba sa, DOC se cong tac vi VASEP tot hn. Nh vay, cac nha hoach nh chien
lc co the chuyen mot cuoc au tr t au tr "bat cong tac" sang au tr "cong tac"
bang cach gan ket cac quyen li vi nhau.
Chien lc linh ong the hien ro nhat trong au tr "sap nga" (matching the pennies).
Hai ngi chi tung ong xu. Mot ngi tung va up ong xu lai, hoi ngi kia "sap
hay nga?" Neu oan ung ngi o se c 10.000 ong, oan sai se mat 10.000
ong. Chien lc tot nhat cho ngi oan la "linh ong" va oan sap va oan nga
- v xac suat cua moi trng hp la 50%. Mot th du trong cuoc song ve viec ap dung
chien lc linh ong la viec bat toi pham ma tuy. Gia s cac chien sy cong an biet
hem X hay dien ra mua ban ma tuy. Ho co hai cach la chon - mot la cam chot 1

16

chien sy cong an hem X, hai la thnh thoang phuc kch bat nhng ke buon ma tuy.
Chien lc th nhat se khong co hieu qua, v nhng ke buon ma tuy se chuyen ia
iem sang cho khac, trong khi chien lc th hai co the thu c ket qua kha quan
hn.
Mot dang khac cua chien lc linh ong la au tr "ga mai" (chicken game). Trong
tran au tren khong au tien cua khong quan Viet nam nam 1964, hoan canh sau ay
a dien ra: mot chiec may bay Mig-17 cua Viet nam het an va b mot chiec may bay
F-4 cua My uoi theo. Anh a quay ngc chiec may bay cua mnh lao thang vao
chiec F-4. Co 4 kha nang xay ra: Mig-17 va F-4 cung am vao nhau. Mig-17 thang
va F-4 bo chay (F-4 se b goi la ke hen nhat hay "ga mai"), Mig-17 chay va b F-4
ban chay, hay ca hai cung tranh nhau. Thc te a dien ra ung nh d oan: chiec F-4
tr thanh "ga mai" va bo chay ma khong he biet chiec may bay cua ta a het an.
Trong cuoc au tr nay co hai iem can bang Nash: mot co li cho chiec Mig-17 va
mot co li cho chiec F-4. Xet ve mat tong the th chung tng ng nhau, nhng oi
vi ngi chi th ngi dung cam nhat, giam chu rui ro nhat se la ngi chien thang.
Trong kinh doanh cung vay. Chnh phu phai quyet nh xem Viet nam co nen tham
gia lch trnh mien giam thue ASEAN (NAFTA) hay gia nhap WTO hay khong. Co
ngi cho rang Viet nam cha u ieu kien e hoi nhap v sc canh tranh cua Viet
nam qua yeu (giong trng hp chiec may bay Mig-17 cua Viet nam b het an phai
oi choi vi phi oi F-4 cua My ong hn va manh hn nhieu lan). Tuy nhien neu
Viet nam dung cam m ca va cac doanh nghiep trong nc chap nhan canh tranh vi
doanh nghiep nc ngoai, th sc canh tranh qua tng lan co xat vi thc te se c
nang len. Ngc lai neu Viet nam ngai hoi nhap, sc canh tranh cua cac doanh
nghiep trong nc cang yeu va sm muon g cung se b cac cong ty nc ngoai lan at.
Nh vay luat phap - thong qua cac quy nh t do hoa thng mai - co the thay oi sc
canh tranh cua doanh nghiep trong cac cuoc au tr vi cac cong ty nc ngoai.
Mac du au tr co the giup ch rat nhieu trong kinh doanh cung nh trong viec ban
hanh va ap dung cac van ban phap luat, chung ra cung khong nen khai quat mot cach
voi va rang bat ky moi quan he xa hoi nao cung co the qui ve mot trong hai cuoc au
tr - "nghi pham" hay "anh em." Cac ket luan t trc en gi nay da tren gia thiet
la ca hai ngi chi ch au tr mot lan va co ay u thong tin ve nhau. Thc te khong
han la nh vay. Trong cac chng ti chung ta se xet en nhng trng hp cac ben
khong co thong tin hoan chnh ve ket qua cung nh chien lc cua ben kia, hoac mot
ben tham gia vao nhieu cuoc au tr cung mot luc vi nhau.
Ket luan

17

au tr luan, thong qua hai cong cu la bang phan tch va iem can bang Nash a the
hien la mot cong cu hu hieu giup chung ta phan tch anh hng cua phap luat en
hanh vi cua cac chu the, ong thi tm giai phap can thiep toi u bang phap luat vao
mot van e. e phan tch, chung ta can qui nhng van e phc tap ve mot dang n
gian ien hnh va ch phan tch nhng iem quan trong nhat, nham tm ra hng giai
quyet van e. Trong chng nay, chung ta a lam quen vi hai dang au tr thong
thng: o la au tr gia hai ngi co y nh cong tac (co-operative game) va hai
ngi khong co y nh cong tac (non co-operative game). Muc tieu cua phap luat la
khong nhng lam cho cac cuoc au tr thanh cac cuoc au tr co y nh cong tac, ma y
nh cong tac o phai the hien chien lc toi u va an toan nhat cho cac ben tham gia.
e co the ap dung au tr luan va phan tch mot van e, can lu y cac iem sau ay:
1)

Ban chat cua cuoc au tr gia cac ben la "cong tac" hay "bat cong tac" (xem
vu kien ca basa). Neu chung bao gom ca cong tac lan bat cong tac, th xem
iem nao co the cong tac c, va iem nao khong the cong tac c (xem
au tr "nghi pham").

2)

Sau khi xem ban chat cuoc au tr, can tm xem trong cac mo hnh au tr, mo
hnh nao the hien ro nhat thc chat van e. Th du trong mo hnh au tr cong
tac co au tr dung mot chien lc duy nhat ("anh-em"), au tr dung chien
lc linh ong ("san hu" hay "sap nga"), hay au tr vi tinh than san sang
chap nhan rui ro ("ga mai").

3)

Dung au tr luan co the ieu chnh cac iem can bang Nash cuac cac ben
trong tng trng hp, sau o la chon giai phap phu hp vi y ch cua cac nha
lam luat. Tuy nhien ap dung sai mo hnh au tr co the dan en ket luan sai va
giai quyet van e sai.

18

Chng 2: Moi tng quan ong va cac cac cuoc au

tr m rong
au tr m rong va phng phap "qui nap ngc"
Trong chng trc chung ta a phan tch au tr thong thng (normal form game).
Mot dang au tr na la au tr m rong (extensive form game), trong o ngi chi
khong co ay u thong tin ve cach chi cua nhau,va cung khong thc hien cac chien
lc ong thi vi nhau, giong nh anh bai hay anh c. Cac ng dung cua loai au
tr nay kha nhieu. Th du lam the nao e ngan hang co the biet c co nen cho mot
ngi khong co bao am vay tien hay khong, lam sao biet c mot doanh nghiep
ang thc hien cac hanh vi oc quyen. Hai cong cu cua au tr m rong la phng
phap qui nap ngc (backward induction - hay "luan co suy kim") va au tr th cap
hoan chnh (subgame perfection). Muc ch cua viec s dung cac cong cu nay la tm
thong tin ve chien lc cua oi tac va co au phap tng ng. Cac nhan to tham gia
trong cuoc au tr m rong bao gom:
1)
Ngi chi.
2)
Thi iem chi (thc hien chien lc) cua tng ngi.
3)
Kha nang chon la cua moi ngi vao tng thi iem.
4)
Thong tin ma ngi chi co c tng thi iem.
5)
Ket qua chi oi vi tng cach chi.
e phan tch au tr m rong ngi ta khong dung bang ma dung s o hnh cay, theo
o moi thi iem chi la mot ot (node). T mot ot au tien (initial node) phat sinh
cac kha nang chi khac nhau, goi la canh (branch). Cuoc au tr ket thuc tai iem
ngon (terminal node), luc o moi ngi chi mi co ket qua sau cung. Ngc lai, neu
tai iem nay ngi chi tiep tuc au tr (vi ngi cu hay vi ngi mi) th iem o
c goi la ot quyet nh (decision node). Th du cuoc au tr gia ngi i xe va
ngi i bo khi khong co phap luat can thiep dien ra nh sau (ngi i xe chi trc):
Ngi i xe
Bat can

Can than
Ngi i bo

Bat can

(0, -1 trieu)

Can than

(0, 1000100)

Bat can

(-100, -1 trieu)

Can than

(-100, -100)

19

Khac vi au tr thong thng, ngi i bo trong trng hp nay biet c ngi i xe

se lam g va co au phap tng ng. Vao th iem anh ta phai hanh ong, ngi i
bo co trong tay mot so thong tin (goi la information set). Da tren thong tin nay ma
ho chon au phap. Neu ngi i xe phong nhanh va nhn thay ngi i bo, anh ta se
d oan xem phan ng cua oi phng la g. Neu ngi i bo van bang qua ng,
anh ta co hai s la chon, hoac tiep tuc phong nhanh, hoac phanh lai. Vao thi iem
o, ngi lai xe co nhieu thong tin e chon la chnh xac hn khi cha nhn thay phan
ng cua ngi i bo.
Trong thc te co nhieu trng hp mot ben phai ch ben kia boc lo thong tin roi mi
co the ra quyet nh. Th du trc khi nhan vao lam viec chnh thc, ngi lao ong
phai qua mot giai oan th viec. Trong o ngi s dung lao ong giao viec trc (ot
au tien), ngi lao ong phan ng sau. Sau khi co c thong tin ve ngi lao ong,
ngi s dung lao ong mi quyet nh co nen ky hp ong lao ong chnh thc hay
khong. Tng t trong hp ong mua sam: khi cha biet chat lng hang hoa hay dch
vu th khong nen ky hp ong ln hay dai han, ma phai co quyen s dung th trc,
neu co hieu qua mi tien ti s dung nhieu va lau dai. Trong hp ong dau kh cung
vay. Cong ty khoan dau ch quyet nh au t nhieu sau khi a tham do thay dau va
san lng dau u e khai thac thng mai. nc ta mot so hp ong mua sam ln
(may bay, tau thuy, thiet b mang ien thoai vien thong) a chu lo hay kem hieu qua
la do ngi mua cha kiem nh chat lng va nang suat cua vat mua tren thc te, ma
lai qua tin vao nhng quang cao cua ngi ban.
Xet th du ve cuoc au tr gia ngi cho vay va ngi vay ve mot khoan vay 1 trieu
ong. Ngi cho vay muon ngi vay dung tien vay vao ung muc ch va tra lai vay
(100.000 ong) va von vay ung han. Tuy nhien khong co g bao am la sau khi nhan
tien ngi vay se tra von va lai ung han, cho du ho co b kien ra toa. Neu ngi i
vay khong chng minh c rang mnh co kha nang tra n, ngi vay co the t choi
cho vay. Li ha cua ben vay cung khong ang tin cay (credible) neu khong co ong
c nao e cho ben vay gi li ha. Neu phap luat khong bao am cng che ngi
vay, th ngi vay co the nuot li ha va s o au tr se c the hien nh sau:
Ben cho vay
Khong cho vay

Cho vay
Ben vay

(0, 0)

Khong tra
n

(1 trieu, -1300000)

Tra n

(100.000, 100.000)

20

Gia s ngi vay vay tien e kinh doanh va lai 200.000 ong. Neu anh ta khong tra
n th se c li 1.300.000 ong (1 trieu ong tien von, 100.000 ong lai vay va
200.000 ong li nhuan). Neu tra n th se ch c li 100.000 ong (200.000 ong
li nhuan tr i 100.000 ong tien lai). Nh vay ngi vay se chon giai phap khong
tra n. V biet vay nen ap dung phng phap qui nap ngc, ngi cho vay se quyet
nh khong cho vay. e giup ngi cho vay co the yen tam vay tien va ngi vay co
tien e san xuat, khong nhng can co luat ma he thong am bao thc thi luat phai co
hieu qua va san sang giup doanh nghiep. Ben canh o luat pha san phai thc s i
vao cuoc song e tai san cua ngi vay de dang. Mot khi co s tr giup cua phap luat,
cac ben de dang thiet ke chien lc an toan va toi u cho mnh. iem can bang Nash
trong hp ong vay se la ngi cho vay xuat von va ngi vay tra von lan lai cho
ngi cho vay.
Trong thc te, chuyen n kho oi cac doanh nghiep Viet nam hien nay cung mot
phan la do c quan thi hanh an qua tai va khong u ngi e thi hanh het cac ban an
oi n can thiet. Lau dan ch tn trong kinh doanh thap se dan en giam sc canh
tranh cua nen kinh te. Nam 2002 Viet nam xep th 65 trong tong so 72 nc c
nghien cu tren the gii ve sc canh tranh, va mot trong nhng iem yeu nhat cua
Viet nam la c che thc thi phap luat (xep th __ trong tong so __ nc).3 Nhng th
du ien hnh cua he thong thc thi yeu bao gom: qua t cac phan quyet cua trong tai
nc ngoai c cong nhan tai Viet nam, cac khoan n kho oi khong c hoan tra,
va t le an ton ong cac toa an cung nh quyet nh thi hanh an ton ong phong
thi hanh an.
Phng phap "phong nga" va cac cam ket chien lc
Trong cuoc au tr khi mot ben i trc, ho co iem bat li la phai thong tin cho ben
kia biet chien lc cua mnh. Tuy nhien ho co u the la khong b anh hng bi cac
the tran ma ben kia tao ra, ong thi co the gai ben kia vao the tran ma mnh dng
nen. Hai loai the tran nay la the tran "phong nga" (preemption) va cam ket chien
lc (strategic commitment). Mot th du ve the tran phong nga la vu Uy ban Thng
mai My (FTC) kien DuPont de Nemours & Co. DuPont chiem bang sang che oc
quyen san xuat titan dioxit, chat tao mau trang cho sn va nha. Do vay ho a "i
trc" cac oi thu canh tranh khac hang chuc nam. Khi cac oi thu canh tranh khac
tien vao th trng, DuPont a tien hanh mot so bien phap nh giam gia e anh bai
oi thu, hay m rong c s kinh doanh ti mc oi thu khong con th trng e phat
trien. Bang cach cho oi thu canh tranh biet rang DuPont san sang tieu diet ho,
DuPont a bien s e doa cua mnh tr nen ang s (credible threat) va la cam ket
chien lc oi vi oi thu canh tranh. Tien xa hn DuPont co the tien hanh cac bien
3

Xem World Economic Forum 2002.

21

phap phong nga nh lap ay cac khoang trong tren th trng ngay ca khi cac oi thu
canh tranh cha kp at chan vao th trng. Chung ta cung co the gap mot th du
tng t Viet nam khi Coca-cola va PepsiCo thi nhau ha gia gianh th phan nam
1998 (t 2.000 ong /chai xuong con 700 ong/chai). Thc te viec canh tranh nay la
cam ket chien lc gia hai cong ty nham ngan chan cac cong ty nho tien vao th
trng nc giai khat.
Chung ta co the xet mot cam ket chien lc nh sau: co hai cong ty trong mot th
trng nc giai khat - cong ty cu (incumbent) va cong ty mi (entrant). Cong ty cu
ang co li nhuan la 25USD/thang va neu m rong c s san xuat co the em lai li
nhuan 30USD/thang. Neu cong ty mi tien vao th trng nc giai khat (phng an
A) va cong ty cu khong tra ua (ha gia san pham hay thang cng tiep th) th ho se
phai chia se 15USD/thang li nhuan cho cong ty mi. Neu ho tra ua bang cach giam
gia th ca hai se ch nhan c li nhuan la 5USD/thang. Neu cong ty mi khong tien
vao th trng nc giai khat masan xuat banh (phng an B) th se c
10USD/thang li nhuan. Trong trng hp th nhat, cong ty mi i trc, cong ty cu
se phan ng da tren chien lc cua cong ty mi, ta co s o nh sau (cong ty mi,
cong ty cu):
Chon B

Chon A
Cong ty cu

M rong

(10, 30)

Thu ong

(10, 25)

Tra ua

(5, 5)

Thu ong

(15, 10)

Nh vay chien lc cua cong ty cu phu thuoc vao thong tin ma ho nam c cong ty
mi. Neu cong ty mi chon phng an A, th chien lc toi u cho cong ty cu la thu
ong (thu li 15USD/thang). Neu cong ty mi chon phng an B, th chien lc toi u
cho cong ty cu la m rong. Cong ty mi co the the s dung quy nap ngc e xem
nen chon phng an nao. Th du ho tin cong ty cu se khong tien hanh cam ket chien
lc hay co bien phap ngan chan nao v trong trng hp nay li nhuan cua ho se b
giam mot na. Nh vay cho du cong ty cu co e doa tra ua th s e doa nay cung
khong ang tin. So sanh khoan li gia hai phng an A (thu li 15USD) va B (thu li
10USD), cong ty mi se chon phng an A neu c i trc.
Moi chuyen se khac neu cong ty cu i trc. Neu ho quyet nh m rong san xuat,
cong ty mi khong the nhay vao cung san xuat nc giai khat (v ch c li 5USD)
va se chon san xuat banh (li 10USD). Neu cong ty cu thu ong th cong ty mi se

22

nhay vao th trng nc giai khat (vi nhng ly do a neu tren). V the chien lc toi
u cho cong ty cu la lien tuc m rong san xuat, no va la bien phap phong nga, va
la li e doa ang tin cho cac oi thu canh tranh. Tuy nhien khi i trc, cong ty cu
se phai chu mot so chi ph. Mot phan chi ph nay se khong thu hoi c (goi la sunk
cost) ke ca khi cong ty mi quyet tam nhay vao th trng nc giai khat, th du may
moc a mua - nay phai ban re e rut khoi th trng. Vay cong ty cu co chu bo chi
ph ra tiep e thc hien li e doa khong? Cau tra li la co, v mot khi a "phong lao
th phai theo lao." Mot th du trong cuoc song la d an xay dng nha may ien
Wartsila Vung tau theo phng an xay dng - kinh doanh - chuyen giao. Chu au t
a bo ra hn 10 trieu USD e chuan b thc hien d an, v vay neu ho rut ra khoi d
an th se mat 10 trieu USD. Neu ho au t th co kha nang thu hoi 1 phan trong so 10
trieu USD o, ch khi nao neu ho khong the thu lai c g t 10 trieu USD nay th ho
mi ngh en chuyen rut au t. Neu ho khong bo 10 trieu USD ra ngay t au, ho se
suy tnh co nen bo cong ra kiem 10 trieu USD t d an au t Vung tau hay xin giay
phep cho d an khac. S o se c the hien lai nh sau (cong ty cu i trc):
M rong

Thu ong
Cong ty mi

Chon B

(30,10)

Chon A

(5, 5)

Chon B

(25, 10)

Chon A

(10, 15)

Theo nh s o th chien lc toi u cua cong ty mi khi cong ty cu quyet nh m

rong la chon phng an B. Xet ve quyen li cua cong ty cu th ay la phng an toi
u. Tuy nhien xet ve quyen li cua ngi tieu dung th co the ho muon co hai cong ty
canh tranh tren cung mot th trng hn la mot cong ty oc quyen. V the phap luat
can phai can nhac xem mnh nen ng ve phia ben nao. Neu ho ng ve phia ngi
tieu dung va s dung qui tac suy luan "qui nap ngc", th ho se phai can nhac ngan
chan nhng hanh vi phi canh tranh t trong trng nc (ngha la khi cong ty cu nh
m rong c s san xuat). o cung chnh la ly do tai sao FTC phat DuPont.
Trong thc te Viet nam, chung ta thay co nhieu th du lien quan en "ai c u tien
trc." Th du trong luat au t nc ngoai han che nha au t nc ngoai trong lnh
vc du lch l hanh (cho en gan ay mi bo). Muc ch cua quy nh nay la nham tao
ieu kien cho cac doanh nghiep Viet nam i trc vao th trng nay trc khi doanh
nghiep nc ngoai manh hn tien vao th trng. Cac ban de hnh dung van e neu
lien he en viec cap quota linh kien xe may - doanh nghiep c cap quota trc se
co li the hn doanh nghiep c cap sau, va viec phat trien manh me cua cac doanh
nghiep trong cuoc se lam cac doanh nghiep ngoai cuoc e ngai khong dam nhay vao.

23

Trong cong nghiep o to cung dien ra tnh trang tng t. Nam 1997 cong ty Chrysler
xin phep au t vao th trng Viet nam, nham ran e cac cong ty khac canh tranh
vao th trng nay, tuy nhien khi thay bien phap e doa cua mnh khong co hieu qua,
ho a xin rut lui khoi th trng Viet nam.
au tr th cap hoan chnh
Trong phan trc, chung ta phan ln s dung phng phap qui nap ngc e giai
quyet au tr ma khong dung en tnh toan iem can bang Nash, mac du co the thc
hien c ieu nay. Ly do la v moi ot eu co the lap bang e tnh iem can bang,
va nhieu ot se cho ra nhieu iem can bang Nash khac nhau.
Tuy nhien phng phap qui nap ngc khong ap dung c neu ot tiep theo ngi
chi khong biet ngi au tien a thc hien chien lc g. Tr lai cuoc au tr gia
ngi vay va ngi cho vay. Th du ngi vay khong tra tien va ngi cho vay phai
kien. Viec kien tung ton moi ben 1.2 trieu ong. Nh vay thay v moi ben c li 0.1
trieu ong neu tuan thu hp ong, ho se lo 1.1 trieu ong khi kien (1.2 trieu - 0.1 trieu
tien lai oi c n). S dung phng phap qui nap ngc, ngi vay se quyet nh
khong tra n v biet rang ngi cho vay tha mat 1 trieu ong tien von va 100.000
ong tien lai con hn mat 1.2 trieu ong tien kien tung e oi lai 1.1 trieu ong. Biet
c ieu nay, ngi cho vay se quyet nh khong cho vay. S o c ghi nh sau:
Ben cho vay
Cho vay

Khong cho vay

Ben vay
Khong tra
n

(0, 0)

Kien

(-1,2 trieu, -1,2 trieu)

Tra n

(100.000, 100.000)
Khong lam g

(-1,1 trieu, 1,1 trieu)

ay chien lc cua ben cho vay la khong cho vay, hoac neu co cho vay roi ma
ngi vay khong tra n th anh chu mat tien. Chien lc cua ben vay la khong tra
lai tien. Tuy nhien neu tnh toan iem can bang Nash th chung ta se khong thay ieu
nay, v chien lc vay va tra n ay u van em lai ket qua tot ep hn (moi ben
c 100.000 ong) so vi khong cho vay (khong ben nao c g). Tng t, ben vay
nen tranh b kien (v phai chu chi ph 1.2 trieu) va tra tien (con c vay lan sau).

24

Van e la cho moi e doa b kien la khong ang s (incredible threat), v ben cho
vay tha mat tien con hn i kien (khong co li g hn cho ho).
Nh vay, chung ta se khong the dung can bang Nash n gian ma ket luan c g ve
viec ben cho vay co nh ng tien hay khong, neu khong tra li c cau hoi ho se
lam g neu ben vay khong tra n. e giai quyet van e can s dung mot cong cu khac
- o la au tr th cap hoan chnh (subgame perfection). au tr th cap la cuoc au tr
tiep theo au tr lan au (s cap). Th du trong au tr gia ngi vay va ngi cho
vay, au tr s cap giai quyet van e "co cho vay hay khong?" au tr th cap giai
quyet van e "co the kien neu ben vay khong tra n khong?" Mot iem can bang
Nash ch hoan chnh neu no la chien lc an toan nhat trong moi cuoc au tr th cap.
Mot cuoc au tr th cap phai thoa man ba ieu kien:
1)
No bat au t ngon cua mot cuoc au tr s cap.
2)
No bao gom va ch bao gom cac phng an tiep theo chnh no (tc la
ch co quan he doc theo hng i xuong ma khong co quan he ngang).
3)
Khi xem xet chien lc toi u cho cuoc au tr th cap, can phai xem
chien lc o co toi u cho tat ca cac cuoc au tr phia tren hay khong.
Khi xem xet ca ba ieu kien nay, cuoc au tr gia ben vay va ben cho vay ch con
mot iem can bang Nash: khong cho vay. Khai niem au tr th cap cho ta thay la
dung phap luat giai quyet bat c van e g cung phai co nhng giai phap toan dien,
tong the, khong the ch ap dung nhng giai phap "can bang Nash" na vi. Th du e
thu hut au t nc ngoai vao Viet nam, th ban than viec giai quyet nhanh chong thu
tuc cap giay phep au t hay mien giam thue cho nha au t la cha u. Xin phep
au t nhanh cung khong co ch g neu thu tuc trien khai cac d an au t cham, hay
chi ph kien tung oi n qua cao khi nha au t muon rut tien vay cho mot oi tac
trong nc. Tng t, giai phap thu hut khach du lch vao Viet nam khong ch la to
chc cac chng trnh le hoi dan toc hay am thc, khach san. No bao gom rat nhieu
khau nh giai quyet thu tuc visa, m them ng bay en cac nc, van e ve sinh
phong dch, au t cai tao moi trng ve sinh thanh pho, van e an toan cho du khach.
Khi giai quyet cac van e thuoc ve au tr th cap, chung ta can xem xet: e at c
hieu qua mong muon th can phai ap ng nhng yeu cau g cho ngi chi? Chuyen

g se xay ra tiep theo, va sau o chuyen g se xay ra tiep theo na?

Cuoc au tr cho vay-kien tung cho thay trong kinh doanh cac ben thng rat trong
ch tn, va neu hang hoa co loi th ngi ban co trach nhiem phai thay hang hoa mi
ngay, con hn la i en luc b kien va phai chu nhieu chi ph hn. Chnh v the ma
ngi mua thng thch mua hang co bao hanh hn hang khong co bao hanh. Tuy
nhien ch tn khong thoi cha u, v neu khong co s bao am la phap luat se c
thc thi nhanhh chong va t ton kem th li ha ve ch tn cua cac ben khong u e tr
thanh cac cam ket ang tin cay. Ch khi o th viec kinh doanh gia oi ben mi tr

25

thanh can bang Nash hoan chnh. Noi cach khac, e giai quyet bai toan ve au tr s
cap, can nam c luat chi cac cuoc au tr s cap. Muon bien can bang Nash s
cap thanh can bang Nash hoan chnh, phap luat phai ong vai tro la ong c khuyen
khch cac ben tien hanh nhng chien lc toi u cho au tr th cap trung lap vi
chien lc toi u cho au tr s cap.
Ket luan
au chng, chung ta co nhac en viec cac ben tien hanh au tr vi nhau khong
ch mot lan ma nhieu lan, trong mot thi gian dai. e nam c thong tin ve chien
lc cua oi phng va xay dng chien lc cho mnh co hai cach. Mot la quan sat
xem ngi chi au tien a tien hanh chien lc g va co oi phap tng ng, da
tren viec xem xet tat ca cac kha nang xay ra (s o hnh cay) va lam phng phap qui
nap ngc. Phng phap th hai la phan tch cac chien lc toi u cuoc au tr s
cap va cac cuoc au tr th cap, va tm chien lc nao an toan nhat va co li nhat cho
tat ca cac cuoc au tr cua cac ben. Chien lc nay c goi la iem can bang Nash
hoan chnh.
Vai tro cua phap luat la lam sao cho iem can bang Nash hoan chnh hay ket qua t
phng phap qui nap ngc ong nhat vi chien lc toi u cua cac ben khi ho muon
cong tac vi nhau. Muc ch la lam cho cac ben chuyen cach chi t cho ch lo en
li ch ngan han en cho c khch le e theo uoi cac muc ch dai han va co li
cho xa hoi.
Mot trong nhng phng phap tac ong cua phap luat la thong qua khai niem cam ket
hay e doa ang tin (credible threat). Co ngha la, nhng g ma phap luat tuyen bo se
khuyen khch phai tr thanh hien thc, va nhng li e doa ap dung che tai phai c
thc hien. Muon nh vay, phap luat ch nen khch le hay ngan can nhng g "kha thi."
Th du Thong t cua Bo Van hoa Thong tin qui nh tat ca cac tin tc a len website
eu phai c ang ky tai Bo, hay trc kia co quy nh ai mua au videocassette
phai xin phep Bo Van hoa Thong tin. Cac quy nh nay khong nhng khong kha thi,
ma con lam giam tnh nghiem tuc cua phap luat, v neu c quan hanh phap khong co
kha nang thc thi nhng g mnh e ra th se lam cho cong chung mat niem tin vao
hau qua phap ly. o cung la bai hoc au tien cua Ton t trong Binh phap: quan phap
phai c thc thi nghiem chnh.

26

Chng 3: Tiet lo thong tin, yeu cau cong bo va thao

luan lai
Trong Chng 1, chung ta xem xet cac cuoc au tr trong o ngi chi co thong tin
ay u va tuyet oi (complete and perfect information). Trong Chng 2 chung ta
xem xet cac cuoc au tr trong o thong tin ay u nhng khong tuyet oi (complete
but imperfect information - Chng 2) - co ngha la so lng thong tin ma moi ben
biet ve nhau la nh nhau, vi ieu kien la mot ben i trc. Trong chng nay chung
ta xem xet van e thong tin khong ay u (ngha la mot ben biet ve nhng thong tin
ma ben kia khong biet). S bat oi xng ve thong tin nay (asymmetric information)
se tao c hoi cho ben nam thong tin li dung ben khong nam thong tin (moral hazard).
Co rat nhieu th du ve thong tin khong ay u. Th du: ngi mua bao hiem biet nhieu
thong tin ve rui ro ma mnh xin mua (sc khoe, xe co) hn cong ty bao hiem, ngi
moi nha biet nhieu thong tin ve nha at hn ngi mua nha, cong ty thu mua nong san
biet nhieu thong tin ve gia ca th trng the gii hn ba con nong dan v.v.
Khi mot ben biet nhieu hn ben kia, se nay sinh van e: lam the nao e ben biet t
thong tin nam c thong tin t phia ben kia. Tat nhien phng phap n gian nhat la
noi chuyen vi ben kia (cheap talk) , nhng lam sao co the kiem chng c thong tin
ma ngi kia cung cap? Cac phng phap e co the kiem chng thong tin hay thao
luan lai khi cac thong tin c kiem chng cho thay s that khong giong nh nhng g
ma ben kia a noi se c e cap trong Chng nay.
T tng ch ao hanh ong
Gia s trong mot cuoc au tr m rong, mot ben nam nhng thong tin ma ben kia
khong nam. e tm c thong tin t phia ben kia, mot trong nhng phng phap la
tm iem can bang hoan chnh Bayes (perfect Bayesian equilibrium). Ve ban chat,
ay la phng phap loai suy e tm ra chien lc toi u cua oi phng, da tren mot
so niem tin co c s (belief). C s cua niem tin nay la hai nguyen tac. Th nhat,
ngi chi co ly tr se thay oi niem tin cua mnh khong phai da tren nhng g ben
kia noi, ma nhng g ben kia lam. Th hai, ngi chi co ly tr se hanh ong da tren
niem tin cua mnh. Tai iem can bang, t tng va hanh ong phai nhat quan vi
nhau, va nhat quan vi hanh ong cua nhng ngi chi khac. Mot th du cu the la
khi giao ket hp ong, khong nhng tuyen bo y ch (hanh ong) phai nhat quan vi y
ch (niem tin), magia y ch cua cac ben cung phai thong nhat vi nhau.
Chng trc, chung ta a e cap en au tr th cap hoan chnh, theo o iem can
bang Nash phai toi u moi cuoc au tr th cap. Tuy nhien the nao la toi u th con

27

tuy niem tin cua cac ben. Neu mot ngi muon oi mot chiec but may lay 1 chiec
xe hi th cuoc trao oi ay van goi la toi u, neu ngi co chiec xe hi thc s muon
oi chiec xe lay chiec but may. Nh vay khac vi iem can bang hoan chnh Nash,
iem can bang hoan chnh Bayes at c khi hanh vi cua cac ben toi u xet ve niem
tin cua ngi chi. Neu mot cach giai quyet c a ra khong nhat quan vi nhng
g ma cac ben tin tng, th cach giai quyet o c coi la ang ng. Phng phap
nay thng c dung trong khoa hoc ieu tra hnh s e ket toi mot nghi pham, neu
phat hien li khai va hanh vi cua nghi pham co nhieu mau thuan.
Mot th du ve s thieu nhat quan gia t tng va hanh ong la cau truyen cua bo
phim ai bang Malta. Nhan vat chnh trong bo phim la Gutman, ngi a bo 17 nam
e tm kiem bc tng ai bang nam ngoc ma cac hiep sy Malta dang tang vua Tay
ban nha. Cuoi cung ong ta tm c bc tng tai Istanbul trong tay mot v tng Nga
la Kemidov. Bc tng b sn en va co ve nh khong co gia tr g lam. Gutman tra
gia cho bc tng kha cao, nhng Kemidov khong ban. Sau cung Gutman thue c
hai chuyen gia en anh cap bc tng, nhng hoa ra bc tng ch la ban sao cua
bc tng that a c Kemidov cat dau.
Tat nhien Gutman khong noi vi Kemidov ve gia tr cua bc tng, nhng Kemidov
a oan ra c rang bc tng rat co gia tr qua cach mac ca de dai cua Gutman. Th
du Kemidov nh gia bc tng ch ang 10 USD, tuy nhien Gutman lai tra gia ti
100.000 USD. Ban au chien lc toi u cua Kemidov la ban bc tng vi gia hn
10 USD va cung lam la 100 USD, v ieu o phu hp vi niem tin cua ong. Tuy
nhien khi nghe Gutman chao gia cao hn mnh tng, Kemidov buoc phai ieu chnh
lai niem tin cua mnh - khong nhng bc tng ang gia hn 10 USD, ma tham ch no
co the ang gia hn 100.000 USD. Xet cho cung, Kemidov khong anh gia thap oi
thu: Gutman khong phai la ke kh khao, va at han phai anh gia bc tng hn
100.000 USD. Le ra Gutman a co the mua c bc tng vi gia 20 USD hay 100
USD, nhng do ong a khong nam c niem tin cua Kemidov ve gia tr bc tng
nen a mat c hoi mua lai.
Trong thc te kinh doanh cung co nhieu chuyen nh vay a xay ra. Khi nha may bot
giat Viso lien doanh vi cong ty Unilever e thanh lap cong ty lien doanh Lever Viso,
quyen s dung nhan hieu Viso c chuyen giao mien ph cho Unilever. Viso tin
rang gia tr tai san chu yeu cua mnh la nha xng va quyen s dung at ch khong
phai nhan hieu. Tuy nhien khi Unilever lien doanh vi nha may P/S e thanh lap cong
ty lien doanh Elida P/S th nhan hieu P/S c Unilever tra gia en 5 trieu USD, trong
khi toan bo nha xng va quyen s dung at ch c nh gia cha en 1 trieu USD.
Khac vi Kemidov, P/S tuy thay Unilever tra gia cho nhan hieu cao hn mnh tng
nhieu, song van khong ngh la gia tr thc cua P/S co the con cao hn na, va a ong
y ban. Trong khi o Unilever a tnh: e chiem c 70% th phan Viet nam nh P/S

28

ang chiem, can phai mat 5 nam quang cao vi tong chi ph la 12 trieu USD, v the 5
trieu USD la mot gia kha li. Thc te chng minh la Unilever ung. Cho en khi
Cong ty Elida P/S chuyen thanh cong ty 100% von nc ngoai, P/S van la nhan hieu
kem anh rang chiem th phan chu yeu Viet nam. Bai hoc cua Viso va P/S cung
nh nhieu nhan hieu Viet nam khac cho chung ta thay la e giai quyet van e can
phai luon linh ong va khong c tin chac vao bat c ieu g, cung nh khong c
coi thng oi thu. Neu oi thu anh gia ve mot van e khac vi mnh anh gia, ng
voi cho rang oi thu anh gia sai, ma hay ngh xem mnh co anh gia sai hay khong.
Trong trng hp nay hay ieu chnh lai niem tin ban au cua mnh.
iem can bang trong cuoc au tr khi mot ben nam c nhng thong tin ma ben kia
khong biet thng c tien hanh theo mot trong hai dang. Th nhat la ben co thong
tin lam nh khong biet thong tin o ton tai (th du Gutman tra gia cho bc tng cua
Kemidov nh mot bc tng s bnh thng, va Kemidov ban bc tng nh mot bc
tng s). Ca hai ben at c mot iem can bang chung (pooling equlibrium), viec
tra gia cua Gutman khong he tiet lo mot thong tin nao cho Kemidov.
Trng hp th hai la ben co thong tin tiet lo thong tin cua mnh nhng van c ben
kia chap nhan sau khi a anh gia lai niem tin cua mnh. Th du Gutman thu thc vi
Kemidov la bc tng ai bang o c nam ngoc, song ong ch mua bc tng vi
gia 100.000 USD neu qua thc no la bc tng goc ai bang Malta. Trc thai o
chan thc cua Gutman, Kemidov se khong con nghi ng g ve gia tr thc cua bc
tng va ong y ban no. Khi nay ca hai ben at c iem can bang rieng re
(separating equilibrium).
Khai niem ve giai phap can bang hoan chnh Bayes
Chung ta co the ap dung khai niem can bang hoan chnh Bayes vao trong mot cuoc
au tr gia ngi mua sa bot e lam so co la va ngi ban sa. Ngi mua khong
the nao kiem tra het tat ca cac lo hang. Tuy nhien ho muon bao am rang cac lo
hang phai am bao chat lng neu khong san pham so co la cua ho se b ngi tieu
dung kien. e nam thong tin, ngi mua dung ly thuyet xac suat, v the ma iem can
bang nay co ten la Bayes - nha toan hoc ngi Anh the ky 18 a e ra ly thuyet xac
suat. Ngi mua th san pham cua ngi ban mot cach ngau nhien, roi t o tm ra
qui luat ve chat lng cua lo hang, lay thong tin nay lam c s cho niem tin cua mnh.
T niem tin dan en hanh ong. Ngi ban can c vao hanh ong cua ngi mua ma
co phan xa tng ng. Neu phan xa nay trai vi nhng g ma ngi mua d oan th
ngi mua se ieu chnh lai niem tin cua mnh, neu khong th ca hai se at c iem
can bang Bayes va hp ong mua ban c dien ra.

29

Th du ngi ban sa bot phai quyet nh xem mnh nen ban cho nha san xuat so co la
hay gi sa bot lai, loc va che thanh sa hop. Neu sa cua mnh b moc, ho se phai
chu boi thng thiet hai cho nha san xuat so co la. Neu ngi ban sa quyet nh gi
sa lai e san xuat, ho se co li nhuan la 3USD trong khi nha san xuat so co la khong
nhan c ong nao t quyet nh nay (v ho khong mua c sa). Neu ngi ban
sa quyet nh ban sa va th trc khi ban, ho phai th chat lng trc cho ngi
mua. Neu ho bo nhieu chi ph e th th se ch thu c li nhuan la 1USD. Neu
ngi ban sa ch th s qua th co the at li nhuan en 5USD. Tuy nhien neu co
mot kien hang b moc va b khach hang kien th ho se khong con li nhuan. Nha san
xuat so co la cung phai th sa e e phong b khach hang kien. Neu ho th ky th ch
thu c 1USD li nhuan. Neu th s qua th co the thu c 3 USD li nhuan, nhng
neu b khach hang kien th khong thu c ong nao. Ket qua (ngi ban, ngi mua
sa) c the hien theo s o sau:
Ngi ban sa gi lai
Ban - th can than

Ban - th s qua

Ngi mua sa
Can than

(1, 1)

(3, 0)

Ngi mua sa
Bat can

(1. 3)

Can than

(5, 1)

Bat can

(0, 0)

Trong cuoc au tr nay ngi mua biet ngi ban a th sa nh the nao, va oi sach
cua ca hai ben se dan en 2 iem can bang Nash. Mot la ngi ban th can than va
ngi mua th s qua. Hai la ngi ban th s qua va ngi mua th can than. Ngi
ban chac chan se th s qua, v tin rang ngi mua tha th lai cho chac (li nhuan
bang 1) con hn la b khach hang kien va nhan li nhuan bang 0. Nh vay ngi ban
a li dung ngi mua (moral hazard). Cach suy luan cua ngi ban da tren phng
phap qui nap ngc, bi le ngi mua biet ngi ban a th sa nh the nao khi nhan
sa, va buoc phai th ky khi biet ngi ban cha th ky. Trong cuoc song, cuoc au
tr nay xuat hien khap ni: gia th may va chu xng, gia nong dan va ngi thu
mua, gia nha cung cap nguyen vat lieu va ngi ban san pham cuoi cung cho ngi
tieu dung, xuat khau gao chat lng cao/thap, xuat khau hang hoa sang Hoa ky thong
qua ai ly trung gian v.v.
Tuy nhien neu ngi mua cho ngi ban biet rang mnh se khong kiem tra mat hang
ky, ngi ban se phai th ky trc khi ban (v kha nang b khach hang kien). Nh vay
ngi ban tha gi sa lai (li nhuan = 3 USD) con hn ban sa (li nhuan = 1 USD).

30

Mot trng hp khac xay ra la ngi ban khong tiet lo cho ngi mua biet mnh a
th sa nh the nao. Luc nay chung ta khong the s dung phng phap qui nap ngc
e tm chien lc toi u cho ngi mua sa. Chung ta cung khong the s dung
phng phap can bang Nash v cuoc au tr nay co nhieu iem can bang khac nhau.
Chung ta cung khong the s dung au tr th cap, ay la hai cuoc au tr s cap khac
nhau, mot gia ngi ban va ngi mua, va mot gia ngi mua va khach hang, ch
khong phai la quan he au tr s cap - th cap (nh trong hp ong vay n). Nh vay
trong trng hp nay ngi mua hang phai dung ly thuyet xac suat e quyet nh
chien lc. Gia s ngi mua hang tin rang t le th ky/th s cua ngi ban la 50/50
(p = 0.5), va ho phai quyet nh xem nen th ky hay khong:
Neu ngi mua th ky, ho se luon nhan c li nhuan bang 1 (xem s o).
Neu ngi mua th s qua, ho se nhan c li nhuan tnh theo xac suat la
EPV (estimated profit value) = (p x 3 ) + (1 - p) x 0 = 1.5 (> 1)
Nh vay ngi mua se th s, v xac suat nhan c li nhuan ln hn th ky. Khi
nay ngi mua x s co ly tng oi (sequential rationality). Tuy nhien neu xac suat
th ky cua ngi ban la p = 33%, th EPV = 33% x 3 + 67% x 0 = 0.99 (<1), va ngi
mua se phai th ky. Nh vay ngi mua th co ky hay khong con tuy thuoc vao niem
tin ve kha nang th ky cua ngi ban. ca hai trng hp ngi mua eu chon chien
lc toi u, tuy vao niem tin cua ngi mua vao ngi ban. Niem tin nay tren ly
thuyet khong thay oi cho du xac suat th ky cua ngi ban la 99% hay 34%. Ngi
mua ch xem xet lai niem tin khi xac suat th vt qua iem can bang (33%). Nh
vay pham vi t 99% en 34% la pham vi can bang (equilibrium path).
Tuy nhien ve mat logic ngi mua khong co ly do g e tin la ngi ban se th ky, v
neu th ky th ngi ban tha gi sa lai e lam sa hop con co li hn. Tren thc te
bat ky dau hieu nao cho thay ngi ban bat au th s (th du niem tin ve xac suat th
ky cua ngi ban giam t 50% xuong con 40%) cung se b ngi mua coi la ngi ban
bat au i ra ngoai pham vi can bang (off the equilibrium path) va bat au phai anh
gia lai chien lc cua mnh. Ve lau dai , iem can bang Bayes sau khi cac ben a
anh gia lai chien lc la ngi ban se th s va ngi mua se th ky.
Luat phap co the da vao ly thuyet xac suat e ra cac quy nh. Th du trong luat hai
quan, nhan vien hai quan khong can phai kiem tra toan bo lo hang ma ch kiem tra
ngau nhien. Tuy nhien neu xac suat phat hien hang gian lau cua chu hang vt qua
mc chap nhan, nhan vien hai quan se anh gia lai niem tin cuamnh va kiem tra toan
bo lo hang. Trong nganh thue cung vay, neu phat hien doanh nghiep co doanh thu ln
ma nop thue thap, hay doanh nghiep b lo nhieu nam lien tiep, nhan vien thue co the
at nghi van ve kha nang gian lan thue va tien hanh kiem tra thue.

31

Thong tin c kiem chng, t nguyen cung cap thong tin va manh moi
iem can bang hoan chnh Bayes va cac phng phap ieu chnh co the c s dung
nh cong cu e cac ben tm thong tin thong qua hanh vi cua oi tac. muc nay chung
ta se xem xet vai tro cua ly thuyet xac suat oi vi quy nh trong hp ong mua ban
la ngi ban phai thong bao trc cho ngi mua ve nhng khuyet tat cua vat mua
(goi la luat cung cap thong tin). Co hai loai thong tin. Loai th nhat la thong tin kiem
chng c (verifiable) - th du kiem tra xem 1 chiec xe co chay tot khong, phanh co
an khong. Loai thong tin th hai la thong tin khong kiem chng c (non-verifiable).
Th du ngi chu muon kiem chng xem ngi gac cong co can than khong co the
can c vao viec anh ta co bat c trom khong. Tuy nhien ay cung khong phai la c
s e tin cay. Mot ngi gac cong li bieng cung co the bat c trom, hay mot ten
trom tai gioi co the tron thoat khoi ngi gac cong can than nhat.
Nh vay neu phap luat quy nh cac ben phai cung cap thong tin th khong the yeu
cau cung cap cac thong tin khong the kiem chng c. Th du anh Hai b ket toi
"khong to giac toi pham" ch v khi anh nghe ban anh noi anh Nam lam tien gia ma
khong i bao canh sat. Li ket toi nay la vo ly, v anh Hai khong the kiem chng
viec anh Nam co lam tien gia that khong. Cho du anh Nam co lam tien gia that th
anh Hai cung khong co ngha vu phai kiem chng thong tin ma mnh nghe c. e
ket toi anh Hai, toa an phai da vao nhng chng c khac chng to anh Hai biet c
nhng thong tin a c kiem chng, nhng khong i bao canh sat ngay.4
Trong cac loai thong tin kiem chng c, ngi ta thng quan tam en mot loai goi
la au moi (unravelling result). Th du trong mot hop tao boc kn co the cha en 100
qua tao. Ngi ban biet so tao trong hop. Ngi mua khong the biet c so tao tr
khi mua ca hop va ve nha m ra. Neu ngi ban noi rang trong hop co 100 qua tao,
va sau o ngi mua ve nha ch em c co 90 qua, ngi mua co the kien ngi
ban. Tuy nhien neu ngi ban im lang khong noi g, th ngi mua khong the kien
ngi ban, v khong co au moi e khi kien.
Thong thng ngi ban se noi that cho ngi mua biet trong hop co bao nhieu qua
tao, v neu khong noi th khong lam cach nao thuyet phuc ngi mua mua tao c,
va thong tin nay co the c kiem chng va lam ngi mua tin ngay. Gia s bay gi
ngi ban co 99 qua tao va quyet nh khong noi g vi ngi mua ve so tao. Viec
ngi ban im lang se lam ngi mua nghi la trong hop khong co ti 100 qua tao, nh
vay ngi ban 99 qua tao cung khong hn g ngi ban 70 qua tao trong cung 1 hop.
Ket qua la ngi ban se noi that vi ngi mua ve so tao mnh co trong hop. Cac ket

Cau chuyen nay da tren mot vu an co that xay ra Tp. Ho Ch Minh nam 2000.

32

qua nh vay goi la "au moi" hay thong tin co e lai dau vet (unravelling result) e
phan biet/kiem chng ngi mua ban trung thc va ngi mua ban gian doi.
Trong luat hnh s cung co cac quy nh phan biet gia cac thong tin "au moi" va cac
thong tin khong phai au moi. Th du BLTTHS quy nh li khai cua ngi lam
chng co the khong c cong nhan neu trong qua kh ngi nay a tng gian doi
trc toa hay cac c quan nha nc. Tng t luat cung quy nh ngi nao co moi
quan he vi ng s th khong c tham gia c quan tien hanh to tung. Nhng
ngi co moi quan he nhng khong chu khai bao, khi phat hien se tr thanh nhng
ngi khong ang tin cay. V thong tin co quan he hay khong la thong tin co the kiem
chng c (e lai dau vet), nen tot nhat la nhng ngi co moi quan he nen t khai
ve moi quan he cua mnh va rut lui khoi danh sach c quan tien hanh to tung. Mot th
du na la BLHS quy nh toi khong to giac ngi pham toi khong ap dung oi vi cha
me, v chong hay con ngi pham toi. Neu khong co ieu khoan nay, khi c quan
ieu tra hoi cung than nhan ngi pham toi va ho im lang, th c quan ieu tra co the
coi ay la au moi e ket luan la ngi b hoi cung "ang co ieu g muon dau diem,"
tng t nh ngi ban tao trong cau chuyen ke tren.
My con co quy nh cam cac ngan hang cong bo cac bien ban kiem tra tai chnh
cua mnh. Ly do la v neu mot ngan hang co 1 so khuyet iem va khong chu cong bo
bien ban kiem tra se b khach hang coi la "co van e" va xep cung loai vi nhng
ngan hang kem. Trong khi o neu ngan hang co bien ban tot, ho se t nguyen cong
bo, khien khach hang tin rang cac ngan hang khong cong bo la ngan hang kem. ieu
nay se khien nhng ngan hang v tr trung bnh bat li.
Trong luat dan s hay lao ong, cac quy nh ve ngha vu chng minh c phan chia
sao cho ngi nam thong tin phai chng minh nhieu nhat. Th du neu ngi s dung
lao ong muon sa thai ngi lao ong v ly do kho khan kinh te, th ngha vu chng
minh cac kho khan nay thuoc ve ngi s dung lao ong. Ngc lai, khi mot ngi to
giac ngi khac xam pham quyen s hu tr tue, ho co quyen yeu cau ngi b to giac
cung cap cac thong tin can thiet ve hanh vi pham toi. Ly do la v ngi pham toi la
ngi biet ve hanh vi cua mnh hn nan nhan, va xam pham quyen s hu tr tue kho
phat hien hn nhng hanh vi xam pham khac.
Luat yeu cau cong bo thong tin va nhng han che cua luat
Quy tac "au moi" thong tin co s dung c hay khong phu thuoc vao kha nang mot
ngi chi tm c thong tin t s im lang cua ngi kia. Tuy nhien neu ngi im
lang thc s khong biet g ve thong tin ma ngi chi can biet th quy tac au moi
khong ap dung c . Nh vay luat yeu cau cong bo thong tin phai phan biet c
gia ngi nam thong tin va ngi khong nam thong tin g. Th du luat bao hiem yeu

33

cau ngi mua bao hiem phai cung cap ay u thong tin ve rui ro cho ben nhan bao
hiem, hay quy nh ve hp ong mua ban yeu cau ngi ban phai thong bao cho
ngi mua ve nhng khuyet tat.
Tuy nhien luat cung quy nh ngi ban khong chu trach nhiem ve viec khong thong
bao nhng khuyet tat khi ban o cu, neu mnh khong biet hay khong the biet vao thi
iem ban vat. Gia s mot ngi mua nha en hoi ngi ban xem can nha mua cob
moi xong hay khong. Ngi ban tra li "theo nh ong ta biet" th can nha khong b
moi xong. Neu sau o ngi mua phat hien can nha o qua thc b moi xong, th ong
ta cung khong the kien ngi ban oi boi thng, neu khong chng minh c rang
qua thc ngi ban biet can nha b moi xong.
Mot th du tng t ve han che cua quy tac au moi la khi au t mua lai mot nha
may, hay khi cho mot cong ty vay tien, chu au t hay chu n thng yeu cau mot
luat s viet tra li 1 so cau hoi. Cac cau hoi nay co the bao gom: ngi i vay co phai
la mot cong ty c thanh lap hp phap theo luat Viet nam hay khong, hay hp ong
soan thao co c phap luat Viet nam cong nhan hay khong. Tuy nhien luat s khong
the tra li c nhng cau hoi ma ban than ho khong biet - th du ngi i vay co b ai
kien tung bao gi cha hay ho co phai la ngi ang tin cay hay khong. oi hoi
luat s tra li nhng cau hoi nh vay la vo ly. Trc kia chung ta cung co quy nh la
tai san the chap phai c cong chng vien nh gia. Trong vu an EPCO-Minh
Phung, mot so tai san the chap a c nh gia thong qua cong chng vien cao hn
hang tram lan e mang i the chap va cho vay. Tat nhien mot vai cong chng vien
thoai hoa bien chat a tao ieu kien e that thoat tien cua Nha nc, tuy nhien luat
phap quy nh cong chng vien phai chu trach nhiem ve gia tr tai san the chap la vo
ly. Muon chu trach nhiem cong chng vien phai nam c thong tin va kiem chng
c thong tin, trong khi cong chng vien lai khong co kha nang nay va khong the
lam au moi thong tin cho ngan hang. Hn na gia tr tai san la do th trng quyet
nh, gia hom nay khong phai la gia ngay mai. Mot hp ong cho vay 10 nam ma ch
da vao gia tr tai san tnh mot thi iem nhat nh la da tren nhng thong tin
khong chnh xac va khong c kiem chng bi thi gian.
Quy tac au moi thong tin cung ch ap dung c trong trng hp mot so gia thiet la
ung. Th du trong trng hp mua tao, th chung ta gia thiet la ngi mua thch nhieu
tao hn t tao. Trong trng hp mua 1 hop so co la, ngi mua quan tam en mau
sac, mui v, chat lng cua cac vien so co la hn so lng cua chung. V moi ngi
mua co mot khau v khac nhau, nen ngi ban cung khong biet the nao machieu long
ngi mua, v vay ho co the chon mot trong hai giai phap. Mot la im lang. Co ngha
la ngi mua cung khong the kien ngi ban, va toa an cung khong the biet ngi
ban im lang la v biet ma khong noi hay thc s khong biet. Giai phap th hai la hoi
xem ngi mua muon g va tra li thanh thc xem san pham cua mnh co phu hp vi

34

th hieu cua ngi mua hay khong. Ngay ca trong trng hp nay, ngi ban cung co
the tra li ngi mua bang nhng thong tin m ho hay kho kiem chng v xet cho
cung ngi ban muon ban hang ch khong phai muon tra li thanh thc.
Trong trng hp thong tin co the kiem chng c va ngi b buoc phai cung cap
thong tin nam c s thc cua thong tin, luat yeu cau cung cap thong tin cung van
phai tnh en chuyen xem viec thu thap thong tin cua ngi cung cap co ton kem qua
khong, viec kiem chng thong tin co qua phc tap khong , va thong tin co gia tr g
khong. Mot trong nhng iem vo ly cua Luat au t nc ngoai vao Viet nam trc
nam 2000 la yeu cau tat ca cac d an au t phai cung cap d an kha thi cho c quan
cap phep. Lap d an kha thi rat ton kem, trong khi cac thong so trong d an kho kiem
chng c. Tham ch neu chu au t khong thc hien ung nh trong d an kha thi v
nhng ly do khach quan th cung khong phai chu che tai g. Th du e lap d an chu
au t phai ton 2000 USD, trong khi c quan nha nc cung khong dung cac so lieu
cua d an kha thi vao viec g co ch, th viec yeu cau cung cap thong tin nay la mot s
lang ph khong can thiet. T nam 2000 tr lai ay, cac d an nho (di 5 trieu USD)
hay xuat khau tren 80% san pham c mien lap d an kha thi. Mot so thong tin
khong can thiet khac (nh giay kham sc khoe cua giam oc cong ty, hay anh gia
tac ong moi trng (khi khong that can thiet), hoac chng nhan phong chay cha
chay) a c bai bo giai oan cap phep. Thiet ngh bai hoc ve thong tin co the
kiem chng va ve au moi thong tin co the cung cap cho cac nha lam luat nhng kinh
nghiem trong viec yeu cau bai bo cac n t khong can thiet, hay bo sung cac bao
cao can thiet cho cong tac quan ly nha nc.
Bay gi chung ta xet en qua trnh tham nh lai niem tin. Gia s gia tr cua mot can
nha khong can sa lai he thong cot keo la 200 cay vang, trong khi mot can nha can
sa la 180 cay vang. Viec can nha co can phai sa hay khong tuy thuoc vao viec he
thong cot keo co b moi mot hay khong. e biet c thong tin nay, ngi ban nha
can phai kiem tra xem can nha a c s dung trong bao lau, a phun thuoc chong
moi bao gi cha, viec phong chong co hieu qua khong, v.v. Tat ca cac cong viec o
eu ton chi ph. Neu ngi ban nha khong kiem tra ky th ho cung khong biet g hn
ngi mua nha ve tnh trang that cua can nha. 50% so ngi ban nha co the kiem tra
cac thong tin ve he thong cot keo can nha vi gia thap, 50% so ngi o phai kiem
tra vi gia cao.
Vi tnh trang nh vay, cac nha lam luat nh ban hanh mot quy nh, trong o yeu
cau ngi ban phai thong bao cho ngi mua biet tnh trang vat ban. Co ba phng
an c at ra. Mot la yeu cau ngi ban t nguyen cung cap thong tin cho ngi mua
va t nguyen chng minh cac thong tin cua mnh cung cap la a c kiem chng.
Phng an th hai la ngi ban bat buoc phai cung cap thong tin cho ngi mua va
phai chng minh thong tin mnh cung cap la ang tin cay. Phng an th ba la ngi

35

ban co the (khong bat buoc) phai kiem tra xem tnh trang can nha. Tuy nhien neu
ngi ban a thc s kiem tra va biet c ieu g th phai thong bao cho ngi mua
eu o. e thc hien ieu nay, chung ta gia thiet la toa an co cach e kiem chng
xem ngi ban nam c thong tin trc hay khong, va neu phap luat nghiem minh,
ngi ban se phai tuan thu.
e xet cuoc au tr gia ngi ban va ngi mua c tien hanh theo phng phap
th nhat (t nguyen cong bo thong tin), chung ta can tm iem can bang. Gia thiet co
mot iem can bang Bayes ma o ngi ban nam c thong tin ve tnh trang can
nha. Theo logic cua cuoc au tr "ban tao" ma chung ta a xet tren, ngi ban nha
se tr thanh au moi thong tin cho ngi mua. Neu can nha khong can sa, anh ta se
noi ngay cho ngi mua va nhan 200 cay vang. Neu can nha can sa, anh ta se im
lang, ngi mua hieu ngay la can nha can sa va se khong tra gia cao hn 180 cay
vang. Gia thiet trc khi kiem tra tnh trang can nha, ngi ban muon ban can nha
cua mnh t nhat la 190 cay vang.
V ngi mua tin rang "ngi ban khong bao gi lam" (ho nam c thong tin chnh
xac ve can nha), nen khi ngi ban im lang, ngi mua ngh can nha ch ang gia 180
cay. Trong khi thc te ngi ban co the im lang v ho cha kiem tra. Nh vay ngi
ban nha b thiet 10 cay. iem can bang bang Bayes ch xay ra khi ngi ban nha co
the nam c thong tin vi gia t hn 10 cay, v neu nhieu hn 10 cay th ngi ban
tha khong kiem tra va ban nha vi gia 180 cay con hn.
Gia s bay gi co mot iem can bang Bayes ma o ch co mot so ngi ban thc s
muon kiem tra can nha e thong bao ve tnh trang cho ngi mua. Neu ngi mua
biet c ieu nay, ho khong the ket luan khi ngi ban im lang la can nha thc s
ang gia bao nhieu tien. Gia thiet t le ngi ban t nguyen cong bo thong tin la 1/4
(1/2 so ngi ban kiem tra can nha, va 1/2 trong so o thay rang can nha trong tnh
trang tot). Nh vay 3/4 so ngi ban se im lang (1/4 biet can nha cua mnh can sa,
1/4 khong biet can nha cua mnh khong can sa, va 1/4 khong biet can nha cua mnh
can sa). Nh vay trong t le 3/4 nay th 2/3 so can nha la can sa, va 1/3 so can nha
khong can sa.
Khi nam c thong tin nay ngi mua phai ieu chnh lai niem tin ban au cua mnh.
V xac suat nha tot ma im lang la p = 1/3, ngi mua se tra gia cho can nha ma ngi
ban im lang la EPV = p x 200 + (1-p) x 180 = 186,67 cay vang. Xac suat ngi ban co
thong tin va muon nhan 200 cay vang va khong co thong tin va muon nhan 186,67
cay vang la nh nhau, trc khi nam c chi ph e kiem tra can nha. Chenh lech ve
gia gia nha can sa va khong can sa la 20 cay vang, vi p = 1/3, ngi ban se ch
kiem tra can nha neu chi ph kiem tra khong vt qua 20 x p + (1-p) x 0 = 6,67 cay
vang. Nh vay neu tnh ca chi ph kiem tra nay, mot ngi khi khong co thong tin

36

muon nhan 186,67 cay vang th khi a co thong tin se muon nhan theo xac suat trung
bnh la 186,67 + 6,67 = 193,33 cay vang. Neu chi ph kiem tra vt qua 6,67 cay
vang, va khi kiem tra xong co the b mat (200 - 186,67) = 13,33 cay vang (v ngi
mua ch tra 186,67 cay neu ngi ban im lang) th tat ca ngi ban co the tnh en
chuyen khong kiem tra na. Luc nay ngi mua lai phai ieu chnh niem tin cua
mnh. V biet ngi ban khong kiem tra, va xac suat gia nha tot va nha xau la p' =
1/2, ho se tra EPV = p' x 200 + (1-p') x 180 = 190 cay vang. Khi ngi mua tra ch co
190 cay vang, co ngha la thong tin ve can nha tot tr gia 200 - 190 = 10 cay vang.
Kha nang (xac suat) kiem c 10 cay vang nay nh kiem tra la 1/2 (50% sau khi
kiem tra la nha tot va 50% sau khi kiem tra la nha xau). Nh vay ngi ban ch bo
tien ra kiem tra nha neu chi ph kiem tra khong vt qua 10 x 50% = 5 cay vang. Gia
s chi ph kiem tra can nha ton khong en 5 cay vang, nh vay tat ca ngi ban se
kiem tra va tr thanh "au moi thong tin." Luc nay ngi mua se phai ieu chnh lai
niem tin cua mnh, va khong tra gia 190 cay vang cho ngi mua im lang na ma ch
tra 180 cay vang (v ngi ban biet ve tnh trang can nha ma im lang co ngha la nha
can sa).
Trong thc te t khi kiem tra 1 can nha ton en 5 cay vang, nhng chung ta th gia
thiet 1 trng hp khac: ngi ban suy tnh xem co nen sn va sa lai can nha mnh
nh ban hay khong. Tien sa lai het 10 cay vang. Neu sa ton 10 cay ma ban i
khong hn c 10 cay so vi luc cha sa th ro rang la ngi ban khong nen sa.
Trong thc te kinh doanh cung vay. e thu hut nha au t vao 1 khu cong nghiep,
ban quan ly thng co chnh sach la giam hay mien tien thue at. Tuy nhien oi vi
nha au t th tien thue at ch la mot mat, va neu ho muon au t th du gia thue at
co cao ho van au t, neu khong thay au t la co li th du gia thue at co thap ho
cung khong au t. Nh vay viec mien giam tien thue at cung khong lam tang cac
d an au t len c la bao. o la tnh trang chung cua au t nc ngoai vao Viet
nam trong 5 nam qua.
Noi tom lai oi vi phng an th nhat, van e au tr gia ngi ban nha va ngi
mua nha, hay gia ban quan ly khu cong nghiep va nha au t, la chi ph mamot
ben phai bo ra e ap ng nhng nhu cau cua ben kia va ong thi van co li cho
mnh.
Bay gi chung ta xet en phng an th hai (phap luat qui nh ngi ban bat buoc
phai nam thong tin va thong bao cho ngi mua). Neu chi ph e nam thong tin qua
cao, ngi ban se buoc phai tnh chi ph nay vao gia can nha. Nh vay gia mot can
nha tot khong phai la 200 cay ma la 210 cay (gia thiet chi ph kiem tra nha het 10
cay), gia 1 can nha xau se la 190 cay. Ngi mua luc nay se b thiet hai, v neu biet
trc la 1 can nha xau ma van phai tra 190 cay th chang tha khong biet g ve tnh

37

trang can nha va tra 186,67 cay (nh trong phng an th nhat) con hn. Nh vay
phng an th hai cung khong phai la phng an toi u.
Bay gi chung ta xet en phng an th 3 (ngi ban khong bat buoc phai nam thong
tin, nhng neu nam thong tin th phai thong bao cho ngi mua). Phng an nay de
giai quyet hn ca. Ngi ban nam thong tin co xac suat nhan c 200 cay va 180 cay
la nh nhau (50%). Tuy nhien ho phai tr i chi ph e nam c thong tin. Neu ho
khong nam thong tin va im lang, ngi mua se hieu la ho khong biet, va v the cho
chac an se tra gia la 190 cay (trung bnh cong gia tr chenh lech gia nha tot va nha
xau). Ngi ban coi thong tin mnh nam c tr gia 10 cay (neu la thong tin "nha
khong can sa") va -10 cay (neu la thong tin "nha can sa"). V xac suat nhan c
thong tin theo hai hng la nh nhau, nen xet ve lau dai (neu ngi ban co nhieu can
nha e ban) th thu thap thong tin se khong lam cho ngi ban thu li nhieu hn la
khong thu thap. Nh vay thong tin ve can nha cung khong co gia tr g, va ngi ban
se khong thu thap thong tin, cho du chi ph thu thap thong tin co thap i chang na.
Th du chi ph thu thap thong tin ch het 1 cay, nhng neu o la thong tin bat li th se
lam cho ngi ban mat 10 + 1 = 11 cay so vi khi khong co thong tin (190 cay so vi
(180 - 1) cay). V xac suat nhan c thong tin theo hai hng la nh nhau nen thu
thap hay khong cung khong lam thay oi gia tr trung bnh cua can nha la 190 cay.
Van e quyet nh thu thap thong tin hay khong ch thay oi khi xac suat nha khong
can sa ln hn nha can sa.
Thong qua 3 phng an, chung ta thay phap luat ong vai tro quan trong trong viec
phan phoi cac chi ph e thu thap thong tin va cho ra nhng ket qua khac nhau. Khi
phap luat khong can thiep (phng an 1), cac ben trong cuoc au tr se trong trang
thai "tu mu" va phai s dung iem can bang Bayes va ly thuyet xac suat e giai quyet
van e. Khi phap luat can thiep theo hng cac ben khong can nam tat ca cac thong
tin, nhng phai cong bo nhng thong tin ma mnh biet, th moi hanh vi cua ngi ban
(cong bo thong tin hay im lang) se c ngi mua hieu ro hn. Luc o tnh trang
"thong tin bat oi xng" se khong con va cuoc au tr cua cac ben se c qui ve cac
dang thong tin hoan chnh va ay u nh a e cap Chng 1 va 2. Tom lai, cac
quy nh ve buoc cong bo thong tin co the giup cho cac ben lap c chien lc toi u
cho mnh, vi ieu kien la thong tin c cong bo phai co gia tr va kiem chng c.
e biet gia tr thc cua thong tin can nam vng cac qui tac xac suat e tnh gia tr cua
thong tin trong mot thi gian dai. Cac th du cung cho ta thay tuy thong tin la quan
trong, nhng xet ve lau dai cha chac nam c thong tin a hn g khong nam c
thong tin, neu xac suat ve ket qua tot hay xau cua thong tin la nh nhau. Chnh v vay
ma ngi ta khong i mua ve so (may t hn rui nhieu) hay i xem boi (t le ung sai
cua thay boi la 50/50).

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oi khi ngi mua nha co the nam thong tin tot hn ngi ban. Ngi mua co the
mua nha trong tnh trang "tu mu" roi thue chuyen gia e lay thong tin. Ke ca trc
khi mua nha, ngi mua cung co the nam c nhieu thong tin hn ngi ban. Trong
trng hp nay, viec ngi ban t nguyen cung cap thong tin khong co gia tr cho
ngi mua la khong hieu qua, v xet ve iem can bang ngi mua co the nam c
nhng thong tin nay. Neu phap luat yeu cau bat buoc phai cung cap thong tin cho
ngi mua, th yeu cau nay cung cha chac co hieu qua, v ngi co thong tin tot co
the dung thong tin e nang gia san pham. Nh vay ngi mua tha mua hang khong
co thong tin vi niem tin rang ay la hang tot con hn (xem cau chuyen ai bang
Malta). Thong tin ve can nha ch co gia tr neu ngi nam thong tin la chu can nha
o, v ch co ho mi s dung thong tin mot cach co hieu qua. Trong cau chuyen ai
bang Malta, Gutman nam thong tin ve bc tng, nhng cung khong lam c g neu
khong dung thong tin e mua c bc tng o.
Trong mot so trng hp, phap luat co the yeu cau ngi nam thong tin (du la ngi
ban hay ngi mua) phai cung cap thong tin cho ngi cha nam, e cho ca hai ben
co the thiet ket chien lc toi u gan iem can bang Nash nhat (co hieu qua nhat).
Th du trong trng hp mua nha, co hai loai ngi mua. Co ngi mua nha e , co
ngi mua nha e sa lai cho thue. Loai ngi th hai khong coi viec phai sa lai
nha la mot ieu bat tien, v the san sang tra 190 cay cho can nha can phai sa. oi
vi loai ngi mua th nhat, ho ch nh gia can nha khoang 170 cay. Gia s chi ph
e nh gia giao ong t 4 en 8 cay. Neu ngi ban khong chu tra li ve tnh trang
can nha, ngi mua co the thue chuyen gia en kiem tra can nha va tra chi ph kiem
tra.
phng an th nhat (ngi ban t nguyen kiem chng va tiet lo thong tin cho ngi
mua), ch co khoang 1/4 so ngi ban noi vi ngi mua rang can nha ang trong tnh
trang tot. oi vi ngi ban im lang (co the v cha kiem tra), ngi nh mua nha vi
gia 170 cay san sang kiem tra nha va neu biet can nha o can sa, ho se tra gia 170
cay cho ngi ban. Luc nay ngi mua a t nguyen cung cap thong tin ve can nha
cho ngi ban. Ngi ban chac chan se t choi v co ngi a tra ho vi gia 190 cay
(nhom ngi th nhat). Neu ngi mua kiem tra nha va biet can nha con tot, ho se
tra hn 190 cay (gia cua nhom ngi th nhat a tra) e co the mua c can nha.
Nh vay ngi ban se tham nh lai niem tin cua mnh va cho rang can nha cua mnh
la tot. V the ho khong chu ban chng nao ngi mua chu tra 200 cay.
Nh vay, nhng ngi mua nha e se mua nhng can nha co gia 200 cay, con ngi
mua nha e sa lai cho thue se mua nhng can nha co gia 190 cay. Tat nhien ieu
nay se co li hn cho ngi ban (v neu khong co nhng ngi mua san sang tra gia
190 cay, ngi ban ch co the ban c nha can sa vi gia 180 cay). oi vi ngi
mua nha e sa, thong tin ve tnh trang can nha oi vi ho khong quan trong. Ngi

39

can thong tin nhat ve tnh trang can nha la ngi mua nha e . Ho luon phai kiem
tra ve tnh trang nha trc khi mua, trong khi can nha o co the ngi ban a kiem tra
roi, noi la tot nhng ho khong tin. Ly thuyet xac suat cho thay nhng ngi mua nay
phai kiem tra trung bnh la 3 can nha trc khi mua, va oi khi phai kiem tra 2 lan cho
cung 1 can nha.5 Nh vay tot nhat la phap luat nen quy nh ngi nao nam c
thong tin nen cong bo thong tin cho nhng ngi cha nam, e tiet kiem chi ph kiem
tra lai. Hn na, cho du mot ben trong cuoc au tr khong biet ben kia co nam c
thong tin hay khong, ho cung biet c niem tin cua ben kia va chien lc cua ben
kia, v lng thong tin ma hai ngi chi biet c la nh nhau. Co ngha la: toi biet
cai anh biet va anh biet la toi biet cai anh biet v.v. va v.v. Thong tin nh vay c
goi la thong tin cong cong (common knowledge) - ngha la khong co ai chiem u the
hn ngi khac nh biet cac thong tin nay.
Thong tin co the quan sat c, qui pham va van e thao luan lai
Cho en gi nay chung ta gia thiet lach mot ben biet thong tin va tm cach s dung
thong tin, con ben kia tm cach oc c thong tin va kiem chng thong qua hanh vi
cua oi tac. Bay gi chung ta xem xet trng hp trong o thong tin c ca hai ben
biet nhng ben th ba khong biet, c goi la thong tin quan sat c nhng khong
kiem chng c (observable but not verifiable information). Trong trng hp nay,
van e la lam the nao e hai ben tham gia vao cuoc au tr at c giai phap toi u
ma van khong phai boc lo cho ben th ba (th du cho toa an).
Mot tnh huong nh vay xay ra trong thc te la van e thao luan lai hp ong
(contract renegotiation). Trong vu Alaska Packers' Association v. Domenico, nguyen
n la cac thuy thu a kien b n la cong ty anh ca oi tang lng. Nguyen nhan la
cong ty anh ca ch tra lng cho thuy thu da tren so ca bat c, trong khi o lai
cung cap loai li kem cho thuy thu khien ho khong the bat c nhieu ca. Nhng
tnh huong nh vay hay xay ra khi mot ben phat hien la mnh b ri vao the bat li khi
ky hp ong va nay can thng thao lai hp ong.
Van e cua toa an la ho khong the kiem chng c chat lng cua li anh ca co
anh hng en san lng ca anh bat c hay khong. ay la ieu ma ch co thuy thu
va chu tau anh ca mi biet. Khi mot thong tin khong c kiem chng, iem can
bang toa an co the gia thiet rang thuy thu c tra lng e anh ca bang li toi va
thc te a b cung cap li toi. Cac quy nh cua phap luat khong the yeu cau chu tau
phai cung cap cho thuy thu li anh ca tot, v ho khong the kiem chng c the nao
la "li tot."

Cach chng minh da vao toan xac suat va kha dai dong, chung toi xin phep lc bo.

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Khi mot thong tin quan sat c nhng khong kiem chng c, ngi ta thng a
no ve dang nhng thong tin co the kiem chng c. Th du toa an cho phep thuy thu
va chu tau thao luan lai hp ong, trong o chu tau cam ket se bo ra t nhat 100 USD
e mua li hay sa li 1 nam. ay la thong tin kiem chng c. Trong thc te
nc ta, nhieu hp ong soan vi cac cong ty nc ngoai bao gom nhng ieu khoan
rat kho hieu, bat li cho oi tac trong nc. Th du: "ngi cho thue van phong se
cung cap dch vu theo cung cach chuyen nghiep" hay "hang hoa se c cung cap
theo chat lng va phai." ay la nhng thong tin quan sat c nhng khong kiem
chng c. Nhiem vu cua ngi luat s la phai bien nhng thong tin nay thanh dang
nhng thong tin co the kiem chng c. Th du, ngi cho thue van phong phai bao
am van phong c lam ve sinh bao nhieu lan 1 ngay, nhng ngi thue khac cung
tang phai la nhng ngi nh the nao e khong lam anh hng en hnh anh cua van
phong thue (th du trong mot sieu th, mot ca hieu sang trong se mat gia tr neu
ngi thue ke ben lai s dung cho thue lam nha kho) v.v.
Mot cach giai quyet khac la thong qua trong tai. Th dutrong vu Alaska, cac thuy thu
co the chon 1 trong tai, chu tau co the chon 1 trong tai. Hai trong tai nay chon 1 trong
tai th 3. Suy khi hoi ong trong tai kiem chng li va ra phan quyet xem li chat
lng tot hay xau, toa an ch co nhiem vu cho thi hanh phan quyet. Thong tin ve chat
lng li khong c toa an kiem chng, song no c kiem chng bi nhng
chuyen gia am hieu ve anh ca (cac trong tai).
Trong thc te, cac trng hp thong tin quan sat c nhng khong kiem chng c
rat hay xay ra - nhat la trong nhng moi quan he keo dai. Th du mot oi tac trong
hp ong lien doanh co the nam c oi tac kia la ngi co thien ch hay khong co
thien ch, tuy nhien khi lien doanh tan ra, ho khong co cach g e chng minh cho Bo
Ke hoach va au t ve nhan nh cua mnh. Rar nhieu chuyen co the noi ve thien ch
cua cac ben: gop von co ay u hay khong, oi x vi cong nhan nh the nao, chat
lng va so lng hang hoa cung cap nh the nao v.v. Ngay ca mot van e cung co
nhieu cach giai thch. Mot ben khong gop von ay u co the la do khong co thien y,
song cung co the la do nhng hoan canh khach quan xay ra nc ngoai ma Bo Ke
hoach va au t khong cach g kiem chng c . Mot th du na la viec hai v chong
ly hon va tranh cai xem ai se nuoi con. Ca hai v chong eu co cung thong tin rang ai
la ngi co thng con nhat hay co kha nang nuoi con nhat. Tuy nhien ho khong the
thuyet phuc c toa an rang li khai cua ho ang tin cay, tr khi ca hai ngi cung
thong nhat vi nhau ve li khai. Th du neu ngi chong khong lam cho toa an kiem
chng c thong tin rang mnh co the nuoi con tot hn, ngi v co the dung iem
yeu nay e gianh quyen nuoi con, va v vay se c phan nhieu khi phan chia tai san.
nc ta, thong tin quan sat c nhng khong kiem chng c con goi la "tnh
ngay ly gian."

41

S khuyen khch toi u va van e thao luan lai

oi vi trng hp thong tin khong kiem chng c va vi nhng hp ong keo dai,
ngi ta thng at van e c phep thng thao lai hp ong khi niem tin ve oi
tac thay oi qua nhng g xay ra tren thc te hay khi tnh hnh thay oi. Nhng hp
ong nay thng c goi la hp ong dang m hay khong hoan chnh (incomplete
contract). Muc ch cua viec soan thao nhng hp ong nh vay la e tao ra khoang
trong cho cac ben linh ong giai quyet van e khi tnh hnh mi xay ra. Tuy nhien
viec thng thao lai hp ong la quyen ch khong phai ngha vu, va viec thng thao
lai khong nhat thiet phai thanh cong. Viec cho phep thao luan lai ch la e cac ben
co c s e e ngh thay oi ieu kien hp ong.
Gia s mot hp ong cung cap sa c ky gia ngi ban sa va ngi mua sa.
Trong hp ong nay ngi ban can phai quyet nh chat lng sa ban. Ngi mua
cang dung nhieu loai sa do ngi ban cung cap, ngi ban cang phai cai tien chat
lng sa cua mnh. Ngoai ra, ngi mua phai nghien cu sao cho cac san pham cua
mnh phu hp vi nguyen vat lieu ma ngi ban cung cap.
oi vi ngi th ba, no lc au t cua moi ben la quan sat c, song khong kiem
chng c. e n gian, chung ta gia thiet ngi mua mua hoac 1 tan sa, hoac
khong mua, tuy thuoc chat lng sa va nhu cau tieu thu. Hai ai lng nay khong
the kiem chng c vao thi iem giao ket hp ong, ma ch co the d oan c
qua thong ke xac suat qua nhieu thi gian ("thc khuya mi biet em dai"). Chung ta
gia thiet hai ben phai trai qua 5 giai oan. Giai oan 1 la ky hp ong. Giai oan 2 la
xay dng nha xng va au t c ban. Giai oan 3 la tham do ong thai cua nhau va
xay dng long tin lan nhau. Giai oan 4 la xem xet kha nang thao luan lai hp ong
neu thay khong phu hp, va giai oan 5 la xem xet nen tiep tuc hp ong hay vi
pham hoac cham dt hp ong.
Trong mo hnh nay, oi vi ngi mua gia tr mot n v san pham cua ngi ban
cung cap la E(v) = v + ks + kb. ai lng v la gia tr cha biet ve san pham (0< v <
1). ai lng ks ai dien cho khoan au t cua ngi ban vao chat lng, va kb cho
khoan au t cua ngi mua. Chi ph au t cua ngi ban la 2ks2, cua ngi mua la
kb2. Gia s chi ph bien te (marginal cost) e san xuat them 1 n v sa la 0, v tr
au t co hieu qua, mc o toi u cua kb va ks la 1/2 va 1/4. Li ch cho xa hoi la
7/8.6
Neu hai ben khong ky hp ong vi nhau, ca hai se khong au t va chat lng cua
sa cung se khong c nang len. Ngay ca khi hai ben ky hp ong vi nhau, no lc
6

Lc bo cach giai thch.

42

co gang cua ben nay co the c ben kia quan sat, song cha chac g a c ben kia
kiem chng va cong nhan. Gia s ben no lc la ben ban, ho se cam thay no lc cua
mnh khong c ben mua cong nhan, va khong cam thay c khuyen khch e tiep
tuc au t cho san pham.
e tao c c che khuyen khch, can thiet ke mot khung phap ly sao cho ngi mua
hang co the khuyen khch ngi ban hang au t va ngc lai. Neu hp ong ch bao
gom gia va so lng (ma khong noi en chat lng), ngi ban se khong cam thay
phai no lc cai tien chat lng. V ngi mua thay chat lng nguyen vat lieu khong
cai tien, ho cung khong au t e phat trien cac san pham da tren nguyen lieu nay,
va cung khong tra gia cao cho nguyen vat lieu. Quan he gia hai ngi ri vao vong
luan quan: chat lng kem - gia thap - khong au t - chat lng kem va c the tiep
tuc.
Cac ben cung co the ky mot hp ong dang m: gia co nh, song so lng thay oi.
Ngi mua co the chon mua 1 tan hay khong mua ma khong phai boi thng. V gia
ca co nh nen ngi mua cung khong cam thay c khuyen khch, va v the lai ri
vao vong luan quan chat lng kem - gia thap - khong au t. Khi ngi ban a
khong co c che e nang cao chat lng, viec ngi mua co e doa khong mua cung
khong lam cho chat lng san pham tang len (gia s ngi ban co the ban san pham
cua mnh cho ngi khac).
Gia s hp ong c at m vi gia co nh cao hn gia th trng. Luc nay viec ben
mua e doa se khong mua se lam ben ban s (credible threat - xem chng 2) va phai
au t e tang chat lng. Tuy nhien ngi ban cung ch tang chat lng cho en khi
gia sa bang vi chi ph bien te e san xuat ra so sa o. Cao hn na th ngi ban
khong the tiep tuc chu lo. Trong thc te, cac nhan vien lam cho cac tap oan a
quoc gia tai Viet nam thng c tra lng cao hn nhieu so vi mc lng trung
bnh tren th trng. Muc ch cua viec tra lng cao la e ngi lao ong s b mat
viec va v the phai tang nang suat va lam viec cham ch hn. oi vi cong ty, ho tha
tra lng cao cho mot ngi ang lam viec hn tra lng thap cho mot ngi chuyen
t cong ty khac sang, v ho can co thi gian e tm hieu xem ngi mi co thc s lam
viec hieu qua hn ngi cu hay khong.
Ngc lai, yeu cau tang chat lng cua ben mua lai khong co gii han. Chat lng
nguyen vat lieu cang cao,ho cang muon au t vao day chuyen san xuat v san pham
tao ra t chat lng cao de ban hn. Lam the nao e thiet lap mot c che khuyen
khch ngi ban va co li cho ngi mua, trong khi ngi ban muon ban at va ngi
mua muon mua re?

43

e giai quyet van e nay can tr lai cong thc E(v) = v + ks + kb va xac nh mot c
che gia linh ong. Theo o tien li cua ngi mua t viec ban san pham se c tra
lai 1 phan cho ngi ban theo t le c nh san ve gia nguyen vat lieu. Bang cach
o, hp ong c thng thao lai lien tuc khi hoan canh (li nhuan cua ben mua)
thay oi. Nh vay viec tao ra c che thao luan lai trong mot hp ong dai han quan
trong hn.
Ngoai cac ieu khoan ve thao luan lai, ieu khoan ve cham dt hp ong cung quan
trong, cho du o khong phai la ieu ma cac ben mong muon. Nguyen nhan la v oi
vi nhng cuoc au tr dai han, mot trong nhng phng phap e at c can bang
gia cac ben la i ra ngoai pham vi can bang (off the equilibrium path - xem chng
2). Xu hng nay neu la s e doa ang s (credible threat) va se lam cho oi tac
phai thay oi chien lc theo hng can bang. Neu cham dt hp ong la s e doa
khong ang s th no se khong c s dung, ma cac ben se ngh en thao luan lai
hp ong hn.
Han che kha nang thao luan lai
Mac du thao luan lai co mot so u iem, no ch phat huy u iem neu xay ra ung
thi iem va tao c the can bang co li cho xa hoi. Neu ieu nay khong xay ra,
cac ben co the muon han che kha nang thao luan lai hp ong.
Gia s UBND thanh pho quyet nh m rong ng Cach mang Thang 8 vi chi ph
hang ty USD va to chc au thau. Neu cong ty trung thau ma c nhan 1 khoan tien
co nh e xay dng con ng, trong khi o nha nc khong biet kiem chng chat
lng cong trnh nh the nao, co the xay ra cac trng hp lam dung. Th du cong ty
xay dng an bt vat lieu hay cham tre trong xay dng. Nh vay UBND thanh pho co
the cho phep cac ben thao luan lai ieu kien hp ong neu chat lng cong trnh
khong bao am. ieu nay tat nhien cung co li cho cong ty xay dng, v no co ngha
la khi gia thanh nguyen vat lieu tang qua nhanh, ho cung co the yeu cau UBND thao
luan lai hp ong.
Xet be ngoai th ieu khoan thao luan lai co ve la co li cho ca hai ben. Tuy nhien
neu nhn vao thc te th ieu nay bat li cho UBND hn la co li. Cong ty trung thau
co the y lai vao kha nang thao luan lai hp ong ma khong co gang, Ke ca neu cong
trnh khong at yeu cau, UBND cung khong the cham dt thau va thue ngi khac, v
nh vay chi ph se con ln hn. Trong trng hp nay UBND van phai thao luan lai
hp ong va cho phep cong ty tiep tuc xay dng va sa lai cong trnh. S co ham chui
Van thanh la mot th du ien hnh.

44

Nh vay neu xet en van e mot cach tong the (au tr s cap va th cap), chung ta
co the thay giai phap an toan nhat cho UBND Thanh pho la khong cho phep thao luan
lai. Co ngha la cong ty xay dng phai hoan toan chu trach nhiem ve thi cong va chat
lng cong trnh. ieu nay cung cho phep cong ty xay dng tnh toan ky iem chien
lc toi u cua mnh khi tham gia au thau.
Ket luan
Cac quy nh ve tiet lo thong tin rat quan trong trong viec tao moi trng e cac chien
lc toi u cua cac ben co the c thc hien. Trong chng nay, chung ta a xet en
trng hp mot ben biet thong tin va ben kia co the kiem chng c thong tin nay
thong qua suy luan hay tnh xac suat. Neu thong tin co the c kiem chng chnh
xac th ngi cung cap thong tin (du la ho cong bo thong tin hay im lang ) cung eu
c coi la au moi thong tin. Trong trng hp co au moi thong tin va ben co thong
tin, v chien lc cua mnh, se t nguyen cung cap thong tin cho ben khong co thong
tin, th cac quy nh cua phap luat ve bat buoc phai cung cap thong tin la khong can
thiet, tham ch co hai.
Trng hp phc tap hn la khi thong tin co the c cong bo, nhng ngi co thong
tin im lang. Ngi khong co thong tin khong the phan biet c gia ngi biet ma
im lang va ngi im lang v khong biet. Trong trng hp nay, phap luat co the qui
nh cac ben bat buoc phai cung cap thong tin. Tuy nhien cac quy nh ch co hieu
qua neu thong tin sau o co the kiem chng c , hay c quan nha nc co the phan
biet c ngi biet ma im lang va ngi im lang v khong biet.
Mot trng hp phc tap khac la thong tin c hai ngi chi trong 1 cuoc au tr lau
dai (th du mot hp ong hay mot cuoc hon nhan) biet, nhng ho khong co cach nao
chng minh cho ngi th ba (th du toa an) rang nhng g ho noi la ung. ieu nay
co the la do thieu chng c, hoac do cac thong tin nay thuoc dang "quan sat (cam
nhan) c nhng khong kiem chng c." Mot trong nhng cach giai quyet cho
trng hp nay la cho phep cac ben c thao luan lai - cu the hoa cach kiem chng
nhng thong tin ma thi iem ban au ch mi xuat hien di dang cam tnh. Ly do
thao luan lai la e cac ben co c che khuyen khch thch hp khi cong tac vi nhau
trong mot cuoc au tr ma cac tham so la nhng thong tin cam nhan c nhng cha
kiem chng c.
Trong chng ti, chung ta se xet mot trng hp hoan toan khac. o mot ngi
chi co thong tin nhng khong the chuyen thong tin cho ngi kia. Toa an khong the
kiem chng la ngi o a biet trc ve thong tin o hay khong, va v the cac quy
nh ve buoc cung cap thong tin la khong co hieu qua. Van e cua cac cuoc au tr
nay la mot ben co the co nhng ket luan t viec quan sat nhieu hanh vi cua ben kia

45

(khac vi chng nay - ch quan sat mot hanh vi). Qua o chung ta tm cach thiet ke
phap luat e ho tr hay ngan can qua trnh quan sat va ket luan nay.

46

Chng 4: Phat tn hieu, chon loc va s dung cac

thong tin khong kiem chng c
Phat tn hieu va chon loc
Van e cua chng 4 nay sinh khi co mot thong tin rieng va khong kiem chng c
xuat hien (private and nonverifiable information). Th du, hai oi tac trong mot cong
ty lien doanh ban vi nhau nen chia co tc hay khong, hoac Bo giao duc ao tao ban
xem nen cai cach giao duc theo hng nao, hay ngi tieu dung co nen tin vao quang
cao ban hang cua mot cong ty khong, neu co th nen tin ti mc o nao. Gap nhng
trng hp nh vay, moi ngi chi eu phai ap dung chien thuat cua mnh. Co ngi
tuyen bo rat nhieu thong tin khac nhau, co ngi im lang. oi vi nhng thong tin
khac nhau, co thong tin kiem chng c, co thong tin khong kiem chng c. Tuy
vay cung van co ngi tin va hanh ong theo nhng thong tin khong kiem chng c
nay. Lam the nao e tm ra c chien lc toi u trong moi trng nh vay la cau
hoi nhieu nha kinh te cung nh luat hoc nghien cu trong suot thap ky gan ay. Nam
2001, ba nha kinh te hoc Arkeloff, Spence va Stiglitz c giai Nobel kinh te ve ly
thuyet thong tin bat oi xng cung chu yeu do cac cong trnh nghien cu giai quyet
cung mot van e. o la lam the nao e ben khong nam thong tin co the tm c cai
mnh can tm, va s dung no co hieu qua.
Y tng veviec quan sat hanh vi e tm ra thong tin bat au t thi thng co (Cu
c), khi vua Solomon phai phan x mot vu tranh cai: hai ngi an ba cung cho rang
mnh la me cua mot a be. Nha vua a phan x bang cach cat a tre lam oi va
chia cho moi ngi mot na. Mot ngi an ba ong y, ngi kia phan oi va noi
rang neu e a tre phai chet th ba ta tha mat con mnh cho ngi an ba kia con
hn. Qua hanh vi cua hai ngi an ba, nha vua a phan quyet ngi an ba thng
a tre nhat chnh la me that cua a tre.
Trong thc te mot vu x ly hon cung co the co trng hp nh vay: ngi muon nuoi
con nhieu nhat co khi lai la ngi t thng con nhat, va muon nuoi con ch e c
chia phan tai san nhieu hn. Tng t, khi phong van xin viec, ngi nop n bao gi
cung muon chng to mnh cham ch va gioi, nhng ngi s dung lao ong khong co
cach nao biet c thc h khi cha th viec. e th sc, ngi s dung lao ong
thng bat nhng ngi mi vao lam viec phai lao ong rat cc nhoc, nh vay ngi
cham se tru c het thi gian th viec, con ngi li bieng se khong vt qua c
phep th. Ngi cham ch a phat tn hieu (signal) cho ngi s dung lao ong biet
e ra quyet nh, con ngi s dung lao ong a dung th thach e chon loc ngi

47

mnh can. Phat tn hieu ngha la ngi co thong tin truyen thong tin cho ngi khac

thong qua hanh vi cua mnh. Chon loc co ngha la ngi khong co thong tin chon cac
chien lc sao cho ngi co thong tin t boc lo thong tin cua mnh.

Tron cac trng hp tren, phap luat khong the quy nh ngi li bieng phai noi cho
ngi s dung lao ong biet la mnh li, v se khong ai noi nh vay ca. Tng t,
ngi ban hang khong bao gi noi la hang cua mnh chat lng khong tot. Mot ngi
ban nc mam bao gi cung noi hang hoa cua mnh co hai loai: loai tot va loai hao
hang. Tuy nhien, neu khach hang yeu cau hang hoa phai co bao hanh th ch nhng
ngi co hang tot mi dam bao hanh hang hoa cua mnh. Trong trng hp nh vay,
phap luat khong nen qui nh tat ca cac hang hoa c ban phai co bao hanh, v lam
nh vay se dap tat tn hieu ma ngi ban hang tot muon phat cho khach hang (v ai
cung phat cung mot tn hieu nh nhau).
Ben canh bao hanh, quang cao cung laphng phap phat tn hieu. Ngi co hang tot
se quang cao manh e ngi mua hang biet hang mnh tot va lan sau quay lai mua.
Ngi co hang khong tot neu quang cao manh se lam ngi mua mat long tin va lan
sau se khong mua hang na cho du chat lng co kha hn. Quang cao co li cho ca
ngi mua lan ngi ban, song ngi ban thng co li nhieu hn. Mot khi ngi
mua nhan c tn hieu va kiem chng c thong tin quang cao, ho a co mot niem
tin (xem chng 3). T o ngi mua se co chien lc hanh ong theo niem tin tr khi
chat lng hang hoa tr nen qua xau en mc ho phai anh gia lai niem tin cua mnh.
Viec phat tn hieu co the the c mieu ta tot nhat qua th nghiem cua nha sinh vat
hoc Pavlov: ong cho cho an ong thi rung chuong. Sau nhieu lan rung, no tr thanh
tn hieu cho cho tiet nc bot (phan xa), tham ch khi rung chuong ma khong co thc
an. Tuy nhien neu thc hien th nghiem nay qua nhieu lan ma khong cho cho an, no
se thay oi niem tin va khong tiet nc bot na.
Trong phan tiep theo, chung ta se quan sat xem cac ben co the phat hay thu tn hieu
qua cac cuoc au tr m rong nh the nao.
Mo hnh s dung thong tin khong kiem chng c
Viec xay dng mo hnh nham muc ch giup chung ta hieu c xu hng hanh ong
cua ngi chi, ch khong phai e oan chnh xac xem ngi chi se hanh ong nh
the nao. Th du khong ai ngh rang c he quang cao th doanh thu se tang len. Tuy
nhien thong thng ngi ta mua hang v quang cao, neu nh hien tai ho cha biet
nen mua mat hang g.
Qua cac chng trc, chung ta a xet cac cuoc au tr da tren cac mo hnh, theo o
muon cac ket luan ung can phai co mot so gia thiet. Th du chung ta gia thiet ngi

48

chi phai la ngi hanh ong theo ly tr. Tat nhien khong chac la ho la ngi nh
vay, va chung ta phai xet them 1 trng hp na: ngi chi khong phai la ngi co
ly tr. Nhn chung, cach tot nhat e xet en mot thong tin khong kiem chng c la
at nghi van (phan e) cho chnh thong tin o. Trong triet hoc ngi ta goi no la phep
bien chng (menh e - phan e). Th du: ngi lao ong co the hoac cham ch hoac
li bieng, hang hoa co the chat lng tot hay xau, mot van e co the rui ro nhieu hay
rui ro t. Sau o chung ta cho them 1 nhan to na vao cuoc au tr lam ngi chi th
ba: T nhien (Nature). Khi o T nhien se quyet nh ban chat cua ngi chi la g:
cham hay li, ngi ban hang ban hang chat lng cao hay thap v.v. Muc ch cua
viec a T nhien vao cuoc au tr la e bien mot cuoc au tr vi thong tin khong
hoan chnh (rat kho xac nh iem can bang) thanh mot cuoc au tr vi thong tin
khong ay u (co the xac nh c thong qua cac cuoc au tr m rong). ay la phat
kien cua John Harsanyi, ngi cung c giai Nobel vi John Nash ve au tr luan.
Ngoai T nhien, cuoc au tr con co hai ngi chi. Moi ngi phai chon mot trong
hai kha nang trong moi nc i. Cuoc chi nay tr thanh au tr m rong. Kha nang
th nhat xay ra khi T nhien cho ngi co thong tin tien hanh nc i la ngi cham
ch, ban hang chat lng cao hay t rui ro. Kha nang th hai xay ra khi T nhien cho
ngi co thong tin tien hanh nc i la ngi li bieng, ban hang chat lng thap
hay nhieu rui ro.
Cach giai quyet nay bien mot cuoc au tr phc tap thanh hai cuoc au tr song song
dang n gian (T nhien i trc) e co the xet het moi trng hp xay ra. Cung nh
nhng chng trc, cac quy nh cua phap luat co the anh hng en cach chi cua
moi ngi cung nh cach phat tn hieu.
(1,0)

(0,0)
Ngi c hoi (xac suat 0.1)

Lp yeu

Lp kha

(2,-1)

(3,-1)

T nhien

(0.9,0)

(1,0)
Lp yeu

Lp kha

Ngi nhiet tnh (xac suat 0.9)

(3,1)

(2.9,1)

49

Chung ta th xet mot cuoc au tr vi thong tin rieng khong kiem chng c nh sau
(S o 4.1 tren ay). Chi bo A mot trng nh ket nap them 1 ang vien tre trong
mot trng hoc. Ho phai chon trong so cac oi tng ang, c chia thanh 2 loai:
ngi nhiet tnh that s va ngi nhiet tnh c hoi - e n gian ta co the coi co 2 oi
tng ang vien tham gia cuoc au tr. Viec la chon c tien hanh bang th thach.
To chc ang cho phep cac oi tng c chon mot trong hai moi trng lam viec:
mot la lam chu nhiem lp gom nhng hoc sinh kha, hai la lam chu nhiem lp gom
nhng hoc sinh yeu. oi vi to chc th gia tr cua moi lp la nh nhau. oi vi vi
ngi nhiet tnh that s th lam chu nhiem lp nao cung gan nh nhau. Anh ta coi gia
tr cua viec th thach vi lp kha la $0.9 va vi lp yeu la $1 (v hoc c nhieu kinh
nghiem khi lam viec vi lp yeu). oi vi vi ngi nhiet tnh c hoi th anh ta coi
gia tr cua viec th thach vi lp kha la $1 va vi lp yeu la $0 (tuy nhien anh ta se
khong noi ra ieu nay).
Sau khi hai ngi a chon lp, to chc se quyet nh xem co nen ao tao them hai
ngi nay hay khong. Gia s gia tr cua ao tao oi vi moi ngi la $2 (v ho c
nang cao hieu hiet, va co the sau nay chuyen sang cho khac lam c). oi vi ngi
nhiet tnh that s, to chc se c li t viec ao tao (v ho se lam viec tot hn). Gia
thiet li ch cua viec ao tao ngi nhiet tnh oi vi to chc la $1. oi vi ngi
nhiet tnh c hoi, to chc se ton chi ph ao tao v cha chac ngi c hoi a ong gop
c g nhieu sau khi c c i ao tao. Gia thiet chi ph ao tao la $1. Neu to chc
biet 1 ngi la c hoi, ho se khong c ngi o i ao tao, va cung se khong ket nap
ngi o vao ang. Trong hnh 4.1 mui ten i len la "khong ao tao" va i xuong la
"ao tao". Cac con so trong ngoac ch ket qua danh cho oi tng ang va cho to
chc.
Tat nhien trong hai ngi oi tng ang, ngi nao cung muon mnh c c i ao
tao. Ngi nhiet tnh muon chng to cho to chc biet kha nang cua mnh. Cung
giong nh chng 3, ngi ban nha muon cho ngi mua nha biet la nha mnh
khong can sa e ban c vi gia 200 cay. Tuy nhien khac vi ngi ban nha, ngi
nhiet tnh khong the noi thang vi to chc: "toi la ngi nhiet tnh that" ma phai the
hien qua hanh ong. Nh vay thong tin ma ngi nhiet tnh nam (ve ban chat cua
mnh) la thong tin rieng va khong kiem chng c.
Mac du thong tin nay khong kiem chng c, to chc van muon biet, va to chc co
mot so linh cam nhat nh ve t le ngi nhiet tnh that s so vi ngi nhiet tnh c
hoi. Nhng linh cam nay la thong tin cong cong, va ca hai ngi biet viec nay thong
qua cac lan ket nap ang vien trc. Gia s moi ngi eu biet la thong thng trong
10 ngi nhiet tnh th 9 ngi la nhiet tnh that s (xac suat 0.9) va 1 ngi la nhiet
tnh c hoi (xac suat 0.1 - xem s o 4.1). To chc co the se ieu chnh lai linh cam
nay khi hoan canh thay oi va e tm iem can bang Bayes.

50

e tien hanh cac bc th thach va tm iem can bang, chung ta can xem hanh vi cua
nhng ngi chi co nhat quan vi niem tin cua to chc hay khong. Gia s thong qua
kinh nghiem, to chc tin rang ngi nhiet tnh that s se chon lp yeu va ngi nhiet
tnh c hoi se chon lp kha. T niem tin o, to chc ch c ngi chon lp yeu i ao
tao (nhan c ket qua la $1 - t viec ao tao ngi that s nhiet tnh). To chc se
khong c ngi chon lp kha i ao tao (nh vay nhan c ket qua co gia tr la $0
thay v -$1 [ ton chi ph ao tao]).
en luc nay e giai quyet van e cho to chc (nen c ai i ao tao), chung ta s dung
mot phng phap a noi en Chng 3 trong cau chuyen ai bang Malta, goi la can
bang chung (pooling equilibrium). iem can bang nay, ca hai loai ngi (that s va
c hoi) eu chon lp yeu va to chc ch ao tao nhng ngi a chon lp yeu. To
chc tin rang (1) theo xac suat th 10% so ngi chon lp yeu la ngi c hoi, con lai
la ngi thc long; va (2) ai chon lp kha la ngi c hoi. Cach giai quyet nay la
chien lc toi u cho to chc va cho nhng ngi oi tng ang. Ngi thc long se
c nhan $3 ($1 t viec chon lp yeu va $2 t viec c i ao tao). Mot so ngi
c hoi cung c a i ao tao va nhan c $2, oi cho viec mat $1 v khong c
lam viec vi lp kha.
V moi ngi cung biet la to chc ang theo doi mnh hay at niem tin vao mnh, nen
ho rat can than trong viec la chon chien lc. V vay co the ngi nhiet tnh that s
va ngi nhiet tnh c hoi x s giong het nhau. Ngi nhiet tnh c hoi cung se chon
lp yeu va v vay se c to chc c i ao tao va nhan c li ch la $2. V li ch
nay ln hn s bat tien cua viec phai lam viec vi mot lp yeu nen co the ngi c
hoi se san sang chon lp yeu.
Neu so ngi c hoi chon lp yeu qua nhieu, to chc co the se nhan thay rang niem
tin cua mnh la khong co c s va phai ieu chnh lai niem tin cua mnh. Ngha la
ngi nao chon lp yeu la ngi nhiet tnh c hoi, va ch a nhng ngi chon lp
kha i ao tao. Trng hp nay giong cau chuyen thang Bm i xin phat chan (cm).
Hom au tien Bm en muon (xep cuoi hang) th ngi ta phat chan t tren xuong,
en lt Bm th het cm. Hom sau Bm en sm (xep au hang) th ngi ta phat
chan t di len, Bm cung het lt. Hom th ba Bm canh chng e ng gia hang
th ngi ta lai phat chan t hai au phat lai, va Bm cung khong en lt. Cau
chuyen nay la co thc v ngi phat chan bao gi cung muon phat cho cong bang, cho
nen chien lc cua ho la ba ngay phat chan theo ba cach khac nhau sao cho ai cung
c phat chan. Tuy nhien Bm lai hanh ong da vao niem tin la nhng g xay ra
ngay hom qua se xay ra ngay hom nay, v vay a ap dung mot chien lc hoan toan
ngc vi chien lc cua ngi phat chan. Bm va ngi phat chan khong bao gi
tm c iem can bang v hai ngi co hai niem tin khac nhau.

51

Tr lai cuoc au tr la chon ang vien. Sau khi ngi c hoi thay ch nhng ai chon
lp yeu mi c c i ao tao, ho se chuyen sang chon lp yeu. Ngi thc long
cung muon chon lp yeu e "phat tn hieu" cho to chc biet la mnh nhiet tnh. Khi
ngi nao cung muon chon lp yeu th ai chon sau se phai chon lp kha, cho du la
ngi thc long hay ngi c hoi. Luc nay tot nhat la to chc nen a tat ca i ao
tao, bi v ly thuyet xac suat ch ap dung c khi niem tin cua to chc ve t le thc
long-c hoi trong mot nhom ngi la khong oi. Khi nay viec mot ngi la chon lp
kha hay lp yeu khong noi len c van e g. Tom lai la trong tap hp cac giao vien
chon lp kha hay cac giao vien chon lp yeu xac suat cua ngi thc long/ngi c
hoi luon la p = 0.9. Tnh trung bnh li ch cua to chc khi a moi ngi i ao tao
la EPV = p x 1 + (1 - p) x (-1) = $0.8, trong khi o neu to chc khong a ai i ao tao
th ch nhan c li ch la $0. Nh vay a moi ngi i ao tao van hn.
Bay gi chung ta lai xet en 1 trng hp khac (khi niem tin cua to chc thay oi).
Gia s ca hai loai ngi thc long va c hoi eu chon lp kha va to chc ch a
nhng ngi chon lp kha i ao tao. To chc tin rang 90% so ngi chon lp kha la
ngi thc long, va ai chon lp yeu la ngi c hoi - ch muon lay long to chc.
iem can bang nay, ngi c hoi chon lp kha se nhan c li ch la $3 ($1 t viec
chon lp va $2 t viec c a i ao tao). Ngi thc long nhan c li ch la
$2.9 ($0.9 t viec chon lp va $2 t viec c a i ao tao). To chc van nhan c
li ch t viec 90% ngi c ao tao la ngi thc long, cho du co thiet hai v a
ao tao 10% la ngi c hoi. Cach giai quyet nay cung nam trong iem can bang
Bayes, v no nhat quan vi niem tin cua to chc. Ch co ieu linh cam cua chung ta
cho thay cach giai quyet cua to chc co ieu g o khong on: tai sao nhng ngi dam
nhan bat li (lp yeu) lai khong c a i ao tao?
Trc tien chung ta biet rang li ch toi thieu cua ngi c hoi khi nhan lp kha la $1,
con li ch toi a cua ngi c hoi khi nhan lp yeu la $2 (v ho co the c a i
ao tao). Nh vay chien lc toi u cua ngi c hoi la chon lp yeu. To chc tin
vao ieu nay, nen a khong a nhng ngi chon lp yeu i ao tao. Tuy nhien
ieu nay lai lam cho ngi c hoi chuyen sang chon lp kha va thu li nhieu hn ($3).
Nh vay: Niem tin cua mot ngi chi khong co thong tin se i ra ngoai iem can

bang Bayes neu oi phng thay oi chien lc va thu li nhieu hn ca khi oi

phng hanh ong giong nh niem tin cua ngi chi. iem can bang mi nay c
goi la u the can bang (equilibrium dominance), va viec thay oi chien lc dan en
iem can bang nay goi latieu chuan trc giac (intuitive criterion).
iem kho hieu ay la neu ngi c hoi co the thay oi chien lc, tai sao ngi
thc long lai khong the thay oi chien lc - v oi vi ho chon lp kha hay lp yeu
cung gan nh nhau? V biet la to chc ngh rang ai chon lp yeu la ngi c hoi, nen

52

ho khong the chon lp yeu - va cuoi cung la hoc sinh lp yeu se chu thiet. Nhng
ngi thc long nen noi vi to chc: "neu ngi c hoi co the thay oi chien lc, th
ngi thc long cung co the thay oi chien lc, v neu ho chon lp yeu va c c i
ao tao, ho se c tong li ch la $3 thay v la $2.9 do chon lp kha." To chc se
thay ly do nay thuyet phuc. Cho du chung ta gia thiet la thong tin nh vay khong kiem
chng c, no cung la kha nang ma to chc nen ngh ti. Nh vay y tng cua to
chc ch a nhng ngi chon lp kha i ao tao la khong on va phai c loai bo.
Tr lai cuoc au tr gia to chc va oi tng ang. To chc tin la cho du ngi c hoi
co thay oi chien lc nh the nao th ngi thc long cung se chon lp yeu, v ay la
moi trng th thach tot cho ho. Du cho ngi c hoi muon bat chc ngi thc long
ma chon lp yeu, th niem tin cua to chc van la 90% ngi chon lp yeu la thc long
va ai chon lp kha la c hoi. Nh vay "meo lai hoan meo": hanh ong tot nhat cua to
chc la khong nen thay oi niem tin ban au cua mnh. ay la iem can bang u the
cua cuoc chi sau khi a hieu chnh iem can bang Bayes. No cho ta thay nen ap
dung chien lc nh the nao khi ngi co thong tin bat li khong muon tiet lo thong
tin thong qua hanh ong ma muon anh lac hng oi phng bang cach bat chc
ngi co thong tin co li. Trong trng hp nay tot nhat la nen tap trung vao a so va
ngi co thong tin co li xem hanh vi cua ho nh the nao va quyet nh theo hanh vi
cua ho.
e ket luan ve cuoc au tr nay, hay tng tng to chc va oi tng ang chi vi
nhau giong nh trong mot tran bong a, mot tien ao muon vt qua mot hau ve e
a bong vao li. Tien ao phai lam nh mnh muon a bong sang trai e hau ve
nhao sang trai, sau o mnh a bong sang phai. Tuy nhien hau ve cung la ngi co
kinh nghiem, anh se nhao sang phai. Nh vay oi vi hau ve co kinh nghiem tien ao
se a ung nh mnh nh a, con oi vi hau ve cha co kinh nghiem tien ao se lam
ong tac gia. Tat nhien "a giong nh mnh nh a" la nguy hiem va "ngoai iem
can bang Bayes", tuy nhien oi vi hau ve co kinh nghiem th ay lai la au phap co
hieu qua hn ca.
Cuoc au tr ke tren la mot cach chon oi tng ang, cho du mot so ngi c hoi van
nam trong so ngi c c i ao tao. iem co li cua cach giai quyet nay la cho
to chc co the chon c ngi thc long thong qua tnh toan xac suat so ngi muon
chon lp yeu. iem cha hoan chnh cua cach giai quyet nay la van cho phep ngi
c hoi bat chc c hanh vi cua nhng ngi thc long va che dau ban chat cua
mnh. e sa cha iem cha hoan chnh nay, can tm cach e ngi c hoi t
nguyen boc lo ban chat cua mnh - nh a e cap Chng 3. Th du chung ta co the
to chc mot cuoc au tr giong nh phien toa cua vua Solomon: thng cho ngi c
hoi. Khi ngi c hoi tham gia va nhan phan thng, ho a t boc lo ban chat cua
mnh. Mot th du tng t la cau chuyen co tch: mot ong vua gia muon chon ngi

53

noi doi. Ong giao cho cac cau be trong vng quoc moi ngi mot hat giong va noi ai
trong c cay ep nhat t hat giong se c truyen ngoi bau. en han, cac cau be
eu trong c nhng cay rat ep, rieng ch mot cau la khong trong c. Nha vua
truyen ngoi cho cau be nay. Ly do: tat ca cac hat giong eu a c luoc t trc, nen
khong the nay mam. Cau chuyen nay cung gan giong chuyen banh chng banh day
cua Viet nam.
Phap luat co the ong vai tro tch cc trong cuoc au tr va ke tren neu at vao trong
hoan canh khac. Th du ta thay ngi c hoi la ngi om yeu. Ngi thc long la
ngi manh khoe, va to chc la ngi s dung lao ong. Ngi s dung lao ong co
the tach ngi om yeu ra khoi nhng ngi manh khoe bang cach hoi ho muon lam
viec lau 3 hay lau 1, sau o coi nhng ngi thch lam viec lau 1 la nhng ngi
om yeu va phan biet oi x. e tranh phan biet oi x, phap luat co the quy nh
rang ngi s dung lao ong khong c phan biet oi x ngi lao ong ve ieu
kien lao ong, t o han che kha nang chon loc cua ngi s dung lao ong, va kha
nang phat tn hieu cua ngi lao ong. Trong cuoc song qui nh bat hoc sinh pho
thong mac ong phuc cung la e cac em hoa ong va de chi vi nhau hn. tuoi
nay cac em de co bieu hien mac cam neu b phan biet oi x. Co the bac ai hoc
qui nh mac ong phuc khong con can thiet, v cac sinh vien c t do phat tn
hieu?
Mot th du na la viec ngi nop ho s xin viec phai lam mot ban s yeu ly lch. Muc
ch cua ban s yeu ly lch nay la e ngi s dung lao ong nam c kha nang cua
ngi lao ong e phan cong cong tac. Tuy nhien ban s yeu ly lch co the tr thanh
cong cu e phan loai nhan vien va phan biet oi x (giong trng hp noi phan
tren). Trong ban ly lch cua Viet nam thng co cac muc nh: thanh phan, que quan,
ton giao, ngay vao oan, vao ang, qua trnh hoat ong t trc Cach mang Thang 8,
ho ten va ly lch cha me v chong anh ch em. Ngc lai, trong ban ly lch nop xin
viec tai cac cong ty au t nc ngoai hay cong ty t nhan nhng thong tin nh vay
khong c hoi. Cac thong tin khac nh kinh nghiem cong tac, trng lp ao tao, s
thch, cong tac xa hoi, ngoai ng lai c quan tam hn. Trong ban ly lch cua Viet
nam, chung ta thay co mot so thong tin co the gay bat li cho ngi khai. V the khi
c hoi th 90% ban ly lch khai thanh phan: cong nong, ton giao: khong, cha me la
can bo nha nc, gia nh khong co ai lam viec cho ch. Cac thong tin nay co the la
s that, song cung co the la thong tin nhieu nham tranh b phan biet oi x ve ly lch
sau nay. Neu hien nay chung ta ao tao con ngi da tren pham chat cua chnh con
ngi o th co le nen bo nhng cau hoi i vao van e "te nh" nh vay trong s yeu
ly lch i.
Trc khi i vao phan tiep theo, chung toi nhac lai nhng g a nam trong phan nay:
khi thong tin khong kiem chng c, ngi co thong tin khong the tr thanh au moi.

54

e giai quyet van e nay, can thiet ke cac cuoc au tr mang lai nhng thong tin co
the kiem chng c. Giao th thach cho ngi chi va quan sat phan ng cua ho
(chon loc va phat tn hieu) la nhng phng phap kiem chng thong tin. Tuy nhien
thong qua viec ngi chi phat tn hieu, ho co the lanh hau qua bat li (th du b phan
biet oi x) - goi la ngoai pham vi can bang. V the phap luat phai tnh xem co nen
cho phep ngi chi thiet ke cac bien phap chon loc hay phat tn hieu hay khong.
Phat tn hieu va vai tro cua cac quy nh phap luat
Chung ta co the ap dung cuoc au tr ve "phat tn hien" va "che dau tn hieu" trong
phan va roi vao mot so trng hp cu the. Th du nh luat lao ong My t nam 1993
quy nh khi ngi v sinh con, ngi chong c phep ngh nha e cham soc con 3
thang. Trong thc nhieu ngi muon ngh nha e cham soc con mi sinh, song neu
phap luat khong quy nh th ho cung khong dam yeu cau ngi s dung lao ong. o
la v khi yeu cau, ho buoc phai tiet lo y nh xin ngh trong tng lai cua mnh (phat
tn hieu). Nhan c tn hieu, ngi s dung lao ong se co cach oi pho: ho se ch
nhan nhng ngi khong yeu cau ngh cham soc con. V vay, ngi muon ngh se
ngi khong muon ngh va khong tiet lo y nh cua mnh. Khi v sinh con, ho se tm
ly do khac e xin ngh. ieu nay gay bat li cho ngi s dung lao ong, v ho khong
the d tru c cong viec khi co ngi xin ngh ot xuat v nhng ly do khac nhau.
V the tot hn het la phap luat se quy nh ai cung c nha cham soc con mi sinh
va xoa i kha nang phat tn hieu cua ngi lao ong cung nh kha nang chon loc cua
ngi s dung lao ong.
Mot trng hp phat tn hieu va chon loc khac la ky hp ong bao hiem. Cong ty bao
hiem muon quyet nh xem co nen ky hp ong bao hiem hay khong th phai xac nh
c mc o rui ro oi vi ngi mua bao hiem. Ngi mua bao hiem biet ve rui ro
cua mnh hn cong ty bao hiem, tuy nhien se khong chu tiet lo thong tin bat li (rui
ro cao) cho cong ty bao hiem. Trong trng hp nay cong ty bao hiem co hai cach
giai quyet. Mot la quy nh trong hp ong la ngi mua bao hiem phai khai that tat
ca cac cau hoi trong hp ong bao hiem. Neu phat hien ngi mua bao hiem gian
doi, hp ong bao hiem se vo hieu, bat ke s gian doi o co lien quan g en rui ro
xay ra hay khong. Cach nay khong hieu qua lam, v cong ty bao hiem kho kiem
chng c la ngi khai bao hiem a biet nhng g vao thi iem mua bao hiem.
Cac thong tin nay la thong tin rieng khong kiem chng c. Muon kiem chng phai
thue luat s hay tham t, rat ton kem.
Cach th hai la quy nh nhieu mc bao hiem t thap en cao. Nh vay ngi chu
rui ro cao se mua loai hp ong co mc bao hiem cao. T o cong ty bao hiem se rut
c kinh nghiem e theo doi ngi co rui ro cao (xem ho co kha nang la doi cong
ty bao hiem e nhan tien boi thng hay khong). Thong tin nay cung e quyet nh

55

xem nam sau co nen ky hp ong vi ngi o khong. Trai vi giai phap th nhat,
giai phap th hai re tien va co hieu qua hn.
Th du tren cho thay cung mot muc ch co the co nhieu giai phap khac nhau. Khi
chung ta so sanh chi ph e thc hien tng giai phap, chung ta se co giai phap toi u.
Neu muc ch la muon tm mot thong tin rieng khong kiem chng c, th giai phap
khong the da tren viec kiem chng chnh thong tin o, ma phai da tren mot thong
tin gian tiep thuoc dang kiem chng c. Khi nay ngi co thong tin se t ong phat
tn hieu va ngi nhan thong tin se co c s e ra quyet nh. Ap dung vao qua trnh
ban hanh van ban phap luat: (1) tm hieu xem muc ch cua viec ban hanh van ban la
g, va (2) chi ph thc thi van ban o nh the nao.
Mot th du cu the la cac quy nh ve bien phap khan cap tam thi (ieu 41-43 Phap
lenh giai quyet cac vu an kinh te). Bien phap nay cho phep toa an ke bien tai san
cua mot ben trong vu an theo yeu cau cua mot ng s khac e tranh tau tan tai san.
Theo quy nh th toa an c quyen ra quyet nh ap dung bien phap khan cap tam
thi, song phai goi ben b ap dung bien phap khan cap len e nghe ho trnh bay y
kien. Quy nh nay rat phan tac dung: gia tr cua bien phap khan cap tam thi la tnh
bat ng. Neu toa an "phat tn hieu" cho ben b ap dung bien phap (bang cach goi ho
len toa an), ho se co thi gian tau tan tai san.
Th du th hai la quy nh yeu cau mot ben muon huy hp ong phai thong bao trc
cho ben kia mot thi gian hp ly (ieu 22 Phap lenh giai quyet cac vu an kinh te),
cho du ly do huy la vi ben kia vi pham hp ong. Neu mot ben thong bao cho ben
kia y nh huy hp ong, ben kia se co thi gian e gay them thiet hai cho ben thong
bao (th du xoa d lieu may tnh, cat dau tai san). Tuy nhien neu khong thong bao th
ben kia co the b bat ng va thiet hai, nhat la khi b vu oan la vi pham hp ong. Le
ra cach giai quyet tot nhat la cho cac ben t thoa thuan trong hp ong t trc. Neu
cac ben thay viec c thong bao trc la s phat tn hieu can thiet e hai ben thu
xep thanh ly hp ong hay kien tung, ho se t thoa thuan. Trng hp nay hay xay ra
trong hp ong co mc o rui ro thap. Ngc lai, neu hp ong cac ben giao ket co
mc o rui ro cao (th du hp ong tn dung), cac ben co the thoa thuan trng hp cu
the ve vi pham (event of default). Theo o ben cho vay c quyen cham dt hp
ong ngay khi trng hp vi pham xay ra e kp thi ke bien tai san hay ngng khong
cho vay tiep, tranh chi ph kien tung sau nay.
Cho phep cac ben t do quy nh ve viec cong bo thong tin con la phng phap phat
hien rui ro. Th du trong hp ong vay, neu ben vay khong ong y ve ieu kien cham
dt hp ong khong can thong bao, ben cho vay da tren ly thuyet xac suat co the suy
oan rang ngi vay thuoc loai "rui ro cao" va ngng khong cho vay. Neu phap luat
khong cho cac ben t thoa thuan, cac ben se mat i cac cong cu e chon loc hay phat

56

tn hieu. V the thoa thuan gia cac ben khong at c iem can bang toi u cho ca
hai. Tom lai, neu mot hp ong co nhieu iem can bang (multi-equilibria) va viec
phat tn hieu hay chon loc khong co li g cho li ch xa hoi ma lam tang phan biet
oi x, phap luat co the han che quyen cua cac ben c phat tn hieu. ieu nay c
thc hien thong qua cac quy nh bat buoc cong bo thong tin hay khong c hoi ve
thong tin. Ngc lai, neu viec phat tn hieu va chon loc la can thiet e oi ben co the
tm c chien lc toi u, an toan va co li cho xa hoi th phap luat nen cho cac ben
c hoi t do giao ket thoa thuan trong hp ong.
Tiet lo thong tin va cac quy nh ve vi pham hp ong
Khi mot ben trong cuoc au tr nam thong tin rieng ma ben kia khong kiem chng
c, chi ph e tm hieu gia cac ben se tang (searching cost and information cost).
ong thi chi ph e thng thao (negotiation cost) va khi xay ra kien tung, chi ph
cua toa an e tm hieu s that va hi hanh ban an (enforcement costs) cung tang. Tat
ca cac chi ph nay c goi chung la chi ph giao dch (transaction costs). Khai niem
chi ph giao dch rat quan trong trong kinh te, do nha kinh te hoc c giai Nobel,
Ronald Coase e xng. Coase phat bieu nh luat sau ay (Coase theorem): khi chi

ph giao dch cho mot tai san bang khong, moi ngi khong can en quyen s hu, v
ai nh gia tai san cao nhat se s dung tai san o, li ch ca nhan va li ch xa hoi
bang nhau.
Th du tren mot hoang ao co hai ngi - Robinson Crusoe va Th Sau. Robinson
nuoi bo va Th Sau trong bap. Bo cua Robinson xam hai bap cua Th Sau. Th Sau
co nhat thiet phai bao ve quyen s hu cua mnh bang cach thue ngi bao ve (gia
100 trieu ong/nam) quanh vn bap cua mnh, trong khi thiet hai do bo cua Robinson
gay ra khong qua 50 trieu ong/nam hay khong? Tai sao hai ben khong the thoa
thuan vi nhau: Th Sau khong thue ngi, con Robinson se en bu cho Th Sau 50
trieu ong? Theo Coase, neu cac ben co the thoa thuan vi nhau, th cac quy nh ve
quyen s hu la khong can thiet. Viec Robinson en bu cho Th Sau 50 trieu ong
ma van co li chng to rang nuoi bo co li hn trong bap. Hay noi cach khac, ngi
tieu dung (li ch xa hoi) ung ho Robinson hn Th Sau. Nh vay khong nhng Th
Sau tiet kiem c chi ph, ma xa hoi cung tiet kiem c chi ph (do phai an qua
nhieu bap va qua t tht bo va sa).
nh luat Coase oi vi ly thuyet ve thong tin rieng khong kiem chng c con co
mot y ngha quan trong: khi chi ph giao dch cao, phap luat can phai tm cach ha chi
ph giao dch sao cho cac ben co the t thoa thuan vi nhau vatm iem can bang hay
chien lc toi u.

57

Mot th du la quy nh ve boi thng thiet hai. ieu __ BLDS qui nh ngi gay ra
thiet hai do vi pham hp ong khong nhng phai boi thng thiet hai trc tiep ma con
phai boi thng thiet hai gian tiep. Tuy nhien trong moi trng hp, ngi gay thiet
hai khong phai boi thng neu thiet hai xay ra khong lng trc c, hay ngi b
thiet hai khong tm cach khac phuc thiet hai trc khi yeu cau boi thng. Tai sao lai
co quy nh nh vay? Muc ch la e giam chi ph giao dch cua cac ben. Khi cac
ben bat au ky ket hp ong, ho phai lng trc va tnh toan rui ro trong hp ong.
Thong thng chu s hu cua mot vat nam ro ve rui ro cua vat o nhieu nhat. oi
vi vi ben kia, cac thong tin ve rui ro la thong tin rieng khong kiem chng c.
Chu vat muon ben kia chu rui ro th phai thong bao trc ve mc o rui ro e ben kia
d lieu. Khi thong bao, cac thong tin nay chuyen thanh thong tin chung va kiem
chng c. Chi ph giao dch e tm kiem thong tin hay am phan se c giam i
khi hai ben thoa thuan rang nhng g ho cong bo la toan bo nhng g ho biet, ngoai ra
ho khong chu trach nhiem ve nhng s kien ma ho khong lng trc vao thi iem
ky ket hp ong. Neu mot ben biet trc mc o rui ro cao cua hp ong, ho co hai
cach giai quyet: mot la khong ky hp ong, hai la van ky nhng tm cach phan tan rui
ro (th du mua bao hiem). Da tren thong tin ho se tm ra chien lc toi u. Chien
lc nay cha han la at en iem can bang Nash (toi u cho ca hai ben). Tuy nhien
no at en iem can bang Bayes (toi u tng oi, da tren nhng g ma ngi la
chon chien lc biet).
Khi thiet hai xay ra, ngi b thiet hai la ngi biet ro nhat ve mc o thiet hai.
Thong tin nay cung la dang thong tin rieng khong kiem chng c. V the e tm
cach giai quyet toi u can phai chuyen no ve dang thong tin chung, kiem chng c
(cho du la thong tin khong hoan chnh). Ngha la: ngi gay ra thiet hai ch phai boi
thng oi vi nhng thiet hai ma ho lng trc c. Ngoai ra, neu ben b thiet hai
khong t han che thiet hai, ben gay thiet hai se chu them rui ro va cam thay kho
lng trc c hau qua khi biet la mnh a gay thiet hai cho phia ben kia. Th du
oi khi gay thiet hai nho va boi thng em lai ket qua toi u hn la han che gay ra
thiet hai (xem th du ve Robinson va Th Sau tren). Neu khong biet trc c mc
o thiet hai, hai ben se khong tm c chien lc toi u cho mnh.
Trong thc te co nhng trng hp mot ben li dung s s sot va thieu hieu biet cua
ben kia e thu li cho mnh. Th du trong cac d an en bu giai toa "theo gia th
trng," c quan nha nc tnh gia tr en bu da tren mot so thong tin quan sat c
song khong kiem chng c: so cay trong, nha xay, dien tch xay dng v.v. Cac
thong tin nay khong kiem chng c bi v co kha nang nha ca c xay dng
them hay cay coi c mang t ni khac ve trong e lay tien en bu giai toa. Mot
phng phap giai quyet tot hn la ch en bu da tren nhng thong tin kiem chng
c: dien tch at, v tr at v.v. oi vi nhng thong tin khong kiem chng c,
ch nen en bu theo th thach: ai chu di nha i trc se c en bu nhieu nhat,

58

cang ve sau so tien en bu cang giam. Nh vay nhng ngi co y lai e lay them
tien en bu se khong co c g e lai, v cang lai so tien en bu cang giam. Nhng
ngi khong chu i v ho cho rang tai san cua ho ang c en bu nhieu hn phai
la chon mot trong hai kha nang: mot la theo uoi kien tung - co the c nhieu tien
hn nhng khong chac thang, va ho co ngha vu phai chng minh cho toa an ve gia tr
tai san cua ho. Hai la i ngay va nhan c tien en bu. Neu la ngi c hoi, ho se
phai chun bc trc nhng hanh vi la doi v kha nang khong chac thang. Neu ho tin
la mnh ung th ho se theo uoi vu kien. Trong moi trng hp ngi c boi
thng la ngi nam thong tin nhieu nhat, ho co kha nang t quyet nh.
Chon loc thong tin va vai tro cua cac quy nh phap luat
phan trc chung ta a xem xet cuoc au tr gia ngi mua bao hiem va ngi
nhan bao hiem. Tuy ngi mua bao hiem khong muon phat tn hieu (rang rui ro cua
tai san c bao hiem la cao), cong ty bao hiem van co cach e buoc ho phai boc lo
thong tin bang cach cho ho chon nhieu mc bao hiem.
Neu khong co cach giai quyet nh tren, cong ty bao hiem se gap van e la chon bat
li (adverse selection). Hp ong bao hiem la hp ong gan vi rui ro, v the rui ro
cang cao ngi ta cang de mua bao hiem. Neu cong ty bao hiem han che rui ro bang
cach tang gia ong loat hp ong bao hiem, th ch co nhng ngi co tai san "rui ro
cao" mi i mua bao hiem. Trong khi o cong ty bao hiem thch ky hp ong vi
ngi rui ro thap hn. Ho se lay tien cua nhng ngi rui ro thap bu vao tien en bu
cho nhng ngi rui ro cao. Nghiep vu nay nham at c iem can bang chung
(pooling equilibria - a giai thch chng 3). Tuy nhien khi gia tang, nhng ngi
rui ro thap se khong mua bao hiem na. Nh vay tang gia tien bao hiem ong loat ch
a cong ty bao hiem vao the bat li.
Van e th hai cua hp ong bao hiem la viec lam dung (moral hazard) cua nhng
ngi biet co y o xau ma khong cong bo cho cong ty bao hiem biet. Th du mot
ngi co y nh sa xe a mua bao hiem trc, sau o co y e xe mnh b am nham
lay tien bao hiem sa xe. Tat nhien ho se khong thanh cong neu cong ty bao hiem
biet la mnh co y, song phat hien mot thong tin quan sat c nhng khong kiem
chng c khong phai la de dang. Ke ca khi ngi mua bao hiem khong co y o
xau, viec tai san cua ho a co bao hiem khien ho cang tr nen bat can trong viec gi
gn tai san, khien chi ph bao hiem cang tang.
Cac van e cua hp ong bao hiem cung hay gap trong cac loai hp ong khac. Th
du trong hp ong mua ban hay li-xang vi mot cong ty My, ieu khoan trong tai quy
nh neu co tranh chap th hai ben se a nhau ra c quan trong tai Hoa ky e giai
quyet. Quy nh nay gay bat li cho phia Viet nam, v cong ty My se y lai vao ieu

59

khoan trong tai. Ho co the khong thc hien ung hp ong, cho rang phia Viet nam se
khong dam kien ho v khong hieu luat My, lai phai chu chi ph i lai va luat s cho
vu kien cach xa mnh hang chuc nghn cay so. Mot th du na la hp ong tn dung
cho nong dan xoa oi giam ngheo. Trong hp ong nay ngi nong dan c vay
tien e san xuat ma khong phai the chap tai san. V vay, sau khi vay c tien, ho de
co tam ly coi tien vay la "tien chua", v gia s co khong tra c tien th ngan hang
cung khong co cach g oi n ho c. Trong c quan cung vay. Khi moi nhan vien
c s dung mot may tnh hay mot ien thoai ma khong co kiem soat, ho co the se
dung ien thoai cong vao viec rieng. Khi mot ngi lam vec nay ma khong b trng
phat, nhng ngi khac se bat chc lam theo.
Tat ca cac trng hp li dung (moral hazard) neu tren thuoc vao van e: lam the nao
e thiet lap c che kiem soat. Ngha la sau khi cac ben au tr a tm ra c iem
can bang (th du sau khi ky hp ong - hay sau khi giao ien thoai cho nhan vien),
lam the nao e duy tr s can bang o trong mot thi gian dai tiep theo. Van e nay
se c e cap trong nhng chng sau, nhng ay chung ta co the oan c
hng giai quyet van e la lam sao tm c c che chon loc. Muc ch cua c che
nay la e nhng ngi tot se c khch le lam tot hn, nhng ngi xau se t boc lo
ban chat cua mnh qua hanh vi va b phat hien.
Ket luan
chng nay, chung ta hoc c cach phan tch mot cuoc au tr phc tap vi thong
tin quan sat c nhng khong kiem chng c thanh nhng cuoc au tr n gian co thong tin kiem chng c. Van e cua cua cac phan tch nay la mot so ngi chi
co thong tin bat li se tranh t boc lo thong tin bang cach bat chc hanh vi cua
nhng ngi co thong tin co li (gay nhieu). e chon loc chien lc toi u, ngi
khong co thong tin phai dung phng phap chon loc e sao cho ngi co thong tin co
li t phat tn hieu. oi vi ngi co thong tin khong co li, phai lam sao e ho khong
the phat tn hieu gay nhieu. Muon nh vay can lam oan trc c kha nang thong
tin b nhieu thong qua ly thuyet xac suat va co au phap thch hp sao cho viec gay
nhieu cung khong c li g hn so vi khong gay nhieu. Cau chuyen "chon oi
tng ang", "thang Bm nhan phat chan" va cuoc au tr gia tien ao va hau ve la
nhng th du ve viec chong gay nhieu thong tin.
Cau hoi ay la viec tm thong tin nh vay co li g cho xa hoi hay khong. Neu viec
tm thong tin la can thiet (th du e chon oi tng ang), phap luat khong nen can
thiep vao qua trnh chon loc va chong gay nhieu thong tin. Neu viec tm thong tin
khong can thiet cho xa hoi ma ch lam tang kha nang b phan biet oi x (th du bat
khai thanh phan gia nh trong ly lch ngi lao ong) th phap luat nen quy nh cam
chon loc hay hoi nhng thong tin nay.

60

61

Chng 5: Uy tn va cac cuoc au tr lap lai

Chung ta thng thay cac ben au tr trong khi thng thao hp ong rat kho khan khi
nhng bo lan nhau. Ly do la v nhng bo qua nhieu se tr thanh tien le cho nhng
lan am phan lan sau. Nh vay khi mot ben nh chon mot chien lc toi u, th ho
phai tnh xem chien lc o co toi u ve lau dai hay khong. Cac cuoc au tr nay co
tnh chat lap lai nhieu lan (repeated game) va can co cac giai thch khac vi nhng
cuoc au tr ch tien hanh mot lan.
Chng 2 va 3, chung ta a e cap en phng phap qui nap ngc oi vi cac
cuoc au tr lien tiep. Tuy nhien neu la cuoc au tr lap lai (co ngha la hai ben chi
xong mot van c, xoa i chi lai mot van c mi) th qui nap ngc se khong con
chnh xac. Chung ta xem xet qua cuoc au tr di ay.
Phng phap quy nap ve trc va nhng han che
Mot trong cac th du ve au tr lap lai la viec thng thao hp ong, trong o mot ben
e ngh, ben kia t choi e ngh va a ra e ngh mi, ben nhan c e ngh lai sa
lai e ngh va chuyen cho oi tac. Hai ben c au tr qua lai cho en khi at c thoa
thuan. Cau hoi at ra la: thoa thuan at c khi nao? Chung ta xem cuoc au tr
theo s o di ay: ngi mua va ngi ban mac ca vi nhau.
Ngi mua khong hoi

Ngi mua hoi gia

Ngi ban noi gia, hai ngi thao luan

(0,0)
Ngi ban khong ap

Ngi mua tra gia

(0,0)
Ngi mua bo i

Ca hai ky hp ong

(-5,5)
Ngi ban bo i

(5,-5)

(3,3)

Gia thiet neu ca hai giao ket c hp ong th moi ngi se c li 3 ong (3, 3).
Neu mot ngi e ngh va ngi kia t choi th ngi t choi c 5 ong va ngi e
ngh mat 5 ong (5, -5). Ngi mua i trc, quyet nh xem co nen hoi gia hay
khong. Neu khong hoi gia hoac hoi ma ngi ban khong tra li, ca hai se khong c
li g (0, 0). e quyet nh nc i au tien, ngi mua phai biet trc nc i cuoi

62

cung cua ngi ban la g. Theo s o th chien lc toi u cua ngi ban nc cuoi
cung la t choi (5, -5). Nh vay ngi mua phai ra tay t choi trc nc ap chot
(ch khong c a ra li e ngh mi). Ngi ban cung suy ngh nh ngi mua va
quyet nh tha khong tra li cau hoi cua ngi mua con hn. Nh vay ngi mua va
ngi ban khong i en thoa thuan.
Co ngi cho rang thoa thuan at c khi hai ben thong nhat c vi nhau ve
nhng ieu khoan c ban cua hp ong. Co ngi noi rang khong nhat thiet phai nh
vay, mien la cac ben co u c s e tin la co the thc hien c hp ong la hp
ong a c giao ket. Th du anh Nam co chiec xe may cho anh Tuan mn en het
thang 12. en cuoi thi han, anh Tuan e ngh thue tiep chiec xe may. Anh Nam
ong y, song noi rang mnh ban ve que an Tet, khi nao quay lai se thao luan vi anh
Tuan ve gia ca. Khi quay lai anh Nam ra gia thue la 1 trieu ong 1 thang. Anh Tuan
khong ong y, va noi rang hp ong cha c giao ket v hai ben cha thoa thuan
vi nhau ve gia. Anh Tuan cho rang t thang 12 ti gi mnh ch "mn tam" xe cua
Nam thoi. Lap luan nh vay co ly khong? Neu s dung qui nap ngc va s o tren
th chung ta se thay: neu anh Tuan ch mn xe cua anh Nam thoi th le ra anh khong
nen hoi thue xe cua anh Nam, va anh Nam neu c hoi mn xe th tot nhat la t
choi. Tuy nhien, hanh vi cua anh Tuan khong nhat quan vi nhng g anh a lam t
trc. Nh trong chng 3 ve can bang Bayes, ta goi cac hanh vi nay la ngoai pham vi
can bang (off the equilibrium space). e giup cac ben thiet lap c v tr can bang,
phap luat nen quy nh la hp ong thue a c giao ket, v cac ben a thoa thuan
c ve c ban cach thc hien hp ong (anh Tuan c dung xe, anh Nam se bao gia,
va anh Tuan ong y).
Tuy nhien phap luat khong the giai thch them la anh Tuan phai tra anh Nam 1 trieu
ong/thang tien thue xe. S dung qui nap ngc ta cung thay neu biet anh Nam oi
gia thue cao nh vay th anh Tuan se khong thue, va nh vay anh cung se khong hoi
thue. Ngoai ra, anh Tuan v tin anh Nam nen a ong y s dung trc roi noi gia thue
sau. Gia hai ngi a tao c long tin do la ban cua nhau va a mn xe t trc,
nen anh Tuan khong ngh la anh Nam se li dung long tin e ep gia. e giup cac ben
thc hien ung c chien lc toi u cua mnh, phap luat nen quy nh anh Tuan
phai tra cho anh Nam tien thue theo gia th trng cho en thi iem anh Nam tr ve.
T o ve sau gia ca do hai ben thoa thuan.
Cau chuyen mn xe/thue xe va s o au tr tren cho thay khi hai bc vao nhng
cuoc au tr lap lai, ho se quyet nh nc i sau da tren niem tin cua nc i trc.
Mot th du la cau chuyen Trang Quynh mn noi cua phu ong. Phu ong noi tieng keo
kiet va khong cho ai mn o bao gi. Mot hom thuyet phuc mai, Trang Quynh mi
mn c cua phu ong mot chiec noi trung. Khi em tra, phu ong thay trong chiec
noi trung co them 1 chiec noi nho na. Phu ong hoi, Quynh ap: da chiec noi cua ong

63

va mi e them 1 cai noi con! Lan sau Quynh mn noi, phu ong cho mn han mot
chiec noi to. Mai sau van khong thay Quynh tra. Phu ong hoi, Quynh ap: chiec noi
b chet roi. V phu ong a chot tin la noi co the e c, nen lap luan cua Quynh la
logic da tren niem tin cua phu ong (can bang Bayes - xem chng 2).
Cau chuyen mn noi cua Trang Quynh co ve kho tin, nhng vu la ao tn dung cua
c s nc hoa Thanh Hng hay Ngan hang Viet Hoa la co that. Thu oan cua cac
vu la ao nay la ngi i vay ban au tra von va lai rat cao (tren 10%/thang) va ay
u cho ngi cho vay. Cho en khi gia hai ngi xay dng c long tin th ngi
vay mi quyet nh lam "cu chot" va chiem oat tai san cua ngi cho vay.
Ca ba cau chuyen tren cung cho thay khong nen tin vao mot ieu g o qua ang,
ke ca qui tac qui nap ngc. Qui tac nay ch ung chng nao niem tin ma qui tac o
da vao con ung (anh Nam khong ep gia, noi e c, Viet Hoa co kha nang tra lai
10%/thang). Muon niem tin o ung, th ngi tao ra niem tin o phai gi ch tn
(reputation). Muon gi ch tn, th ho phai cam thay c li trong tng lai t viec
gi ch tn. Neu ieu kien tien quyet o khong at c (th du Viet Hoa cam thay
khong the tiep tuc tra lai 10%/thang c na), th qui tac qui nap ngc khong ap
dung c.
Viec khong gi ch tn khong han la v co y nh la ao ngay t au, ma oi khi v
bat kha khang. Cong ty Minh phung trc khi co y nh thanh lap cac cong ty con e
vay tien chiem oat von nha nc cung a xay dng cho mnh mot so tn nhiem nhat
nh va la ien hnh lam an gioi. Sau o cong ty quyet nh vay von e mua bat ong
san. Ch tn luc nay cha thay oi, do Minh Phung con thay c li ch trong viec
gi ch tn (at se tang gia). Tuy nhien do tnh toan sai lam, th trng at ai khong
tang ma xuong gia lien tuc. Minh phung trong canh n chong chat a ngh en
chuyen la ao. Bai hoc EPCO-Minh Phung cho thay trong cac cuoc au tr lien tuc,
ngi chi phai canh giac khong nhng ch oi vi ngi mnh cha tin, ma con phai
canh giac ca vi nhng ngi mnh tin. Ho co the bo ch tn khi lam vao canh cung
quan. Kha nang anh mat ch tn cang ln neu nh cam ket gia cac ben long leo va
ngi that tn khong phai chu thiet hai g nhieu.
Nh vay neu khong tin vao ai ca th lam sao co niem tin e thiet lap xac suat hay "can
bang Bayes"? Cau tra li la: phai phat hien c dau hieu that tn cua oi phng va
anh gia lai niem tin cua mnh trc khi s that tn o thc s xay ra. Bai hoc cua
Quan Trong giup Te Hoan Cong (trong ong Chu Liet Quoc) ve dung ngi la mot
th du. Te Hoan Cong tin yeu hai can than la Thu ieu va Dch Nha v ho thng yeu
mnh hn ca cha me con cai ho. Quan Trong a thay ngay ay la dau hieu la ao va
canh bao Te Cong. Quan Trong lap luan: con ngi ta khong ai yeu vua hn yeu cha

64

me hay con mnh. ieu va Nha lai lam ngc lai, at han khong phai la ngi thc
long ma la ke c hoi. Qua nhien d oan cua ong ve sau la ung.
Khi cam thay c tn hieu la oi phng khong dung chien lc ung nh nhng g
mnh tin tng, tuy nhien ngi chi cha chac la oi phng se oi chien lc, cach
giai quyet tot nhat la nen th hp tac them 1 thi gian. Th du ngi cho vay thay
ngi vay khong tra n ung han, th viec trc tien khong phai la cham dt hp ong
va oi boi thng. Ngi cho vay nen cham dt cho vay tiep va theo doi xem chuyen
g xay ra. Neu viec khong tra n ung han la do nham lan, ngi cho vay se khong
thiet hai g nhieu, nhng neu qua that ngi i vay co y nh la ao, ngi cho vay
a ngan chan c mot so thiet hai co the xay ra.
Ket luan cua chng nay la oi vi cac cuoc au tr lap lai, qui nap ngc cung la
mot phng phap e chon chien lc toi u. Tuy nhien khong nen ap dung phng
phap nay mot cach mu quang ma phai thng xuyen tham nh lai cac gia thiet (niem
tin) cua mnh. Vai tro cua phap luat trong cac cuoc au tr nay co hai mat. Neu s
hp tac gia hai ngi chi la co hai ve mat xa hoi (th du hai cong ty cau ket e nang
gia hang) th luat nen tao ieu kien cho mot ngi chi phan lai niem tin cua ngi
kia. Neu s hp tac gia hai ngi chi la co li ve mat xa hoi (th du quan he gia
ben vay va ben cho vay) th luat nen ap dung che tai nang cho ngi lam dung tn
nhiem. Chung ta xem xet trng hp th nhat qua th du di ay.
au tr lap lai, cau ket ngam va "qui tac co"
Gia s co hai cong ty nc giai khat Coke va Pepsi cung cau ket ngam vi nhau ve
gia. Khi cong ty Coke len gia th Pepsi cung len gia va ngc lai. Neu hai cong ty
nay thoa thuan cau ket vi nhau bang van ban th ay la hanh vi vi pham luat canh
tranh. Tuy nhien neu hai ben cung len gia va xuong gia e canh tranh vi nhau th
cha chac hanh vi o a la trai luat, v ve lau dai cac ben se t ong ri bo chien lc
"cau ket ngam nay." Chung ta cung phan tch bang di ay. Khi ca Coke va Pepsi
cung len gia, li nhuan cua ho la (10, 10). Neu Coke ha gia va Pepsi tang gia th
Coke thu li la 16 va Pepsi thu li 0 (v khong ban c). Neu ca hai cung ha gia th
li nhuan la (5, 5).
Pepsi
Gia cao
Gia thap
Gia cao
10, 10
0, 16
Coke
Gia thap
16, 0
5, 5
Cuoc au tr nay giong au tr "nghi pham" (xem chng 1). Ca hai eu c li hn
khi ho cung ban gia cao. Tuy nhien neu cuoc au tr nay ch tien hanh mot lan th moi
cong ty eu muon ha gia e ban c nhieu hang hn. V cong ty nao cung ngh nh

65

vay nen iem can bang Nash la ca hai cung ha gia. Neu cuoc au tr c tien hanh
lap i lap lai va chung ta d oan chien lc cua cac ben bang cach ap dung phng
phap qui nap ngc, th ca hai cong ty se lien tuc gi gia thap t au en "cuoi."
The nhng "cuoi" la khi nao? Neu "cuoi" la vo cung th ta goi cuoc au tr nay la
"sieu au tr" (supergame). Khi nay oi vi ngi chi th viec kiem 5 ong cho cuoc
au tr hom nay cha chac a quan trong bang viec kiem c 10 ong cho cuoc au
tr ngay mai. Muon biet ket luan nay co ung hay khong hay so sanh 10 ong ngay
mai vi 5 ong hom nay qua khai niem "gia tr hien tai thuan" (net present value hay
NPV).
Trc tien, ta gia thiet ong tien hom nay bao gi cung tot hn ong tien ngay mai, v
kha nang lam phat lam mat gia. Ta coi t le chiet khau do lam phat cua mot dong
lu kim (cash flow), ngha la gia tr hom nay cua 1 ong hom sau la NPV(1) = ong.
Nh vay 5 x = gia tr thuan cua 5 ong ngay hom sau. Gia thiet cac ben cha biet
khi nao th cuoc au tr ket thuc. Neu xac suat tiep tuc cuoc chi la d th xac suat
cham dt cuoc chi la (1 - d).
e xac nh chien lc toi u, cac ben co the xet nhieu chien lc khac nhau va ket
hp vi chien lc cua ben kia e xem cach ket hp nao la toi u (can bang).
Trc tien chung ta xet en 1 loai chien lc goi la chien lc cng ran (grim
strategy). Ca hai cung ban gia cao vao ngay au tien. Vao ngay hom sau, neu Coke
ha gia th Pepsi cung se ha gia, neu khong ca hai cung gi gia. Neu ca hai cung gi
gia (c li 10 moi lan, th NPV cua Coke/Pepsi = 10/(1 - ). Sau 10 lan chi nh
vay neu ca hai khong co g thay oi th cuoc au tr nay goi la au tr co nh
(stationary).
Sang lan th 11, Coke quyet nh giam gia trong luc Pepsi cha kp giam. Lan nay
Coke c 16 ong. en lan th 12 tr i moi cong ty se c 5 ong. Nh vay li
ch cua viec chuyen chien lc la 16 + 5 / (1 - ). Neu khoan li nay nho hn khoan
li do gi gia, 10/(1 - ), th Coke khong nen giam gia. Giai bat ang thc:
10
5
16 +
1
1

Ta co > 6/11. Khi tang ca hai eu khong muon giam gia. Ch khi > 6/11 th ca
hai mi ngh en chuyen giam gia. Nh vay chien lc cua hai cong ty tot nhat la
chien lc cng ran va o la iem can bang Nash.

66

Chien lc cng ran khong phai la iem can bang duy nhat cho sieu au tr. Cac ben
con co the ap dung chien lc "theo uoi" hay "vo quyt day co mong tay nhon" (titfor-tat). Chien lc nay co ngha la Coke se gi gia va neu Pepsi giam gia hom trc
th hom sau Coke se giam gia. Tuy nhien neu Pepsi hom sau lai tang gia (chu lo) th
hom sau na Coke lai tang gia (moi cong ty hng 10 ong). Chien lc nay linh
hoat hn chien lc cng ran (a giam la khong bao gi tang gia). Tuy nhien ca hai
co the khong hp tac vi nhau na ma thay oi chien lc theo kieu cua cuoc au tr
gia thang Bm va ngi phat chan chng 4. D oan Pepsi se gi gia, Coke
quyet nh ha gia ngay hom au. T so Coke/Pepsi se la (16, 0). Hom sau Coke
nhng Pepsi bang cach tang gia, con Pepsi trng phat Coke bang cach giam gia. T
so Coke/Pepsi se la (0, 16). Nh vay Coke va Pepsi se phoi hp nhp nhang nh hai
chan ap xe ap. Xet cho cung th chien lc nay cung khong co li bang ca hai cung
gi gia (v li nhuan trung bnh cua viec "theo uo" la 16/2 = 8, trong khi li nhuan
trung bnh cua viec gi gia la 10). Neu ca hai khong tin nhau va ngh the nao cung co
luc mot trong hai ben phan lai ben kia th li nhuan trung bnh cua ca hai se tien ve 5
(ca hai cung ha gia e canh tranh - tc la iem can bang Nash n gian). V the
chien lc theo uoi (li nhuan la 8) co ve an toan hn. T ay chung ta phat bieu
nh ly "co" (folk theorem - goi la co v khong ai nh la ai a tm ra nh ly nay au
tien). o la: bat ky chien lc nao cho ngi chi ket qua t nhat bang ket qua

iem can bang Nash n gian th chien lc o cung c coi la an toan va at en

iem can bang Nash hoan chnh th cap trong cuoc sieu au tr.

Neu u nho th cac ben se ngh en chuyen giam gia e kiem li trc mat, tng t
nh cau chuyen san hu chng 1 (con tho cang to th ngi th san cang de ngh
en chuyen bo hu san tho). e ngan chan chuyen that tn, phap luat can qui nh
che tai nang cho nhng ngi that tn, sao cho ngi co y nh that tn cung khong co
li g hn so vi viec ho gi ch tn. iem can bang nay goi la iem toi u Pareto
(Pareto-optimal). Tuy nhien neu nha nc tnh toan lai va thay rang ap dung che tai
nang rat ton kem va khong c li ch g th iem Pareto nay se khong at c .
Mot th du cu the la viec xam pham quyen tac gia oi vi phan mem hien nay Viet
nam. T le xam pham qua cao (tren 90%) cho thay neu trng phat nhng ngi xam
pham th phai trng phat het moi ngi, qua ton kem va khong kha thi. V vay cho
en nay cac che tai oi vi viec xam pham quyen tac gia van la "li e doa khong
ang s" (incredible threat).
Cac lap luan tren ve chien lc cng ran va chien lc theo uoi co 1 iem khong on:
o la gia thiet rang cac ben biet gia cua nhau. oi vi hai cong ty Coke va Pepsi, ho
co the biet gia cua nhau, song oi vi cac cong ty khac, viec nam gia va cap nhat
thng xuyen gia ca oi thu cha chac de dang. o la cha noi en viec xac nh
xem viec oi phng giam gia co anh hng en ket qua kinh doanh cua mnh hay

67

khong. Nh vay thoa thuan ngam thng xay ra cac th trng nhay cam vi gia
hn la nhng th trng ma th hieu ngi tieu dung thay oi lien tuc.
Ngoai ra, khi so lng cong ty tham gia vao th trng tang, kha nang cau ket ngam
cung kho hn. o la cha noi en viec khi phat hien mot cong ty phav cam ket, cac
cong ty con lai cung kho co the cau ket vi nhau e trng phat cong ty a pha v cam
ket. Ngoai ra, nhieu cong ty con co the b nhieu thong tin dan en chuyen hoang hot
ma giam gia trc, con cac cong ty khac th "ban nham" (voi vang trng phat cong ty
giam gia trc khi hoi ly do). Viec thu thap thong tin ve gia ton nhieu chi ph, trong
khi moi cong ty tren th trng eu can biet. Loai thong tin ma nhieu ngi co the s
dung 1 luc c go la tai san cong cong (public good). Ai cung can va ai cung co
thong tin, nen khong ai chu tra tien e mua thong tin (v co tra tien cung khong hn
oi thu canh tranh cua mnh la bao nhieu). Ngi nao cung muon "nh va" (free ride)
thong tin cua ngi khac. Khi mot thong tin b coi nh "cua chua" th khong ai lo thu
thap thong tin. e giai quyet viec nay can co s tham gia cua cac hiep hoi. Viec
thanh lap hiep hoi nh vay la can thiet. Tuy nhien nhieu luc hiep hoi lai la ni cac
hoi vien gap g ky ket cac thoa thuan phi canh tranh. My nhieu hiep hoi a b cac
toa an tuyen bo tham gia vao cac thoa thuan phi canh tranh va giup cac thanh vien
cau ket vi nhau.7
Trong muc nay chung ta hoc cach phan biet gia cac thoa thuan phi canh tranh (phi
phap) va cac cau ket ngam (hp phap). Ve hien tng chung xay ra giong het nhau nhieu cong ty cung an nh mot loai gia, khong ai chu len hay xuong gia. Ve ban
chat, co the viec theo doi oi thu canh tranh va ap dung cung gia la bien phap toi u
ve lau dai. Cac bien phap ma chung ta a xem xet la chien lc cng ran, chien lc
theo uoi va nh ly co, theo o bat ky chien lc nao tot hn iem can bang Nash
n gian eu co the c coi la chien lc toi u trong cac cuoc au tr lap lai.
Cac phan tch cua muc nay giup toa an tm c ban chat van e tron cac vu kien
chong oc quyen.
Uy tn, trng phat va cong tac
Trong mot th trng co mot cong ty ln va nhieu cong ty nho, cong ty ln co kha
nang khong che th trng. Khi cong ty ln nang gia, cac cong ty nho c li v co
the nang gia theo. Cau chuyen cong ty Honda Viet nam chao ban Super Dream nam
1998 vi gia 2400 USD, trong khi gia 1 chiec Dream Thai la 800USD (tai Thai lan) la
mot v du. V xe Honda tang gia nen cac xe nh Suzuki, Yamaha, SYM c dp nang
V hien tai Viet nam cha ban hanh luat canh tranh, va cac vu viec kha chi tiet nen xin phep khong
dch va ke ra ay.

68

gia theo. Tuy nhien khi cong ty ln ha gia, cac cong ty nho khong canh tranh noi se
b pha san. Cau chuyen Pepsi va Coke thi nhau ha gia nam 1998 khien cac cong ty
nc giai khat trong nc phai ong ca la mot th du. Chien lc cua cong ty ln
trong trng hp nay c goi la giam gia trng phat (predatory pricing).
Cac cong ty ln va cong ty nho au tr vi nhau cung tng t nh trng hp hai
cong ty au tr vi nhau chng 2 (neu tien vao th trng giai khat hay lam banh).
iem khac cua viec giam gia trng phat la viec giam gia phai c tien hanh bat c
khi nao co cong ty nho muon xam nhap vao th trng. ay khong mot cong ty ln
au tr vi mot cong ty nho, ma vi nhieu cong ty nho nhieu thi iem khac nhau,
va la mot cuoc au tr lap i lap lai. Tng t nh mot oi quan chnh qui phai oi
choi vi nhieu toan du kch, cong ty ln ve lau dai se b tieu hao lc lng va khong
the c tiep tuc "trng phat" mai. Khi mot cong ty nho lot vao th trng ma khong b
trng phat, e doa trng phat cua cong ty ln se tr thanh "li e doa khong ang
s." Da vao ieu nay, nhieu nha kinh te cho rang giam gia trng phat khong gay
thiet hai nhieu cho cac oi thu canh tranh nh moi ngi tng.
Lap luan tren co mot iem s h: o la gia thiet cho rang cac cong ty nho san sang
chu hy sinh e chien au vi cong ty ln cho en khi thang li hoan toan. Gia s co
5 cong ty nho muon chien au vi cong ty ln. Cong ty th nhat nhay vao th trng
trc va b trng phat en mc pha san. Sau o cong ty th hai nhay vao va cung b
trng phat. Mac du cong ty th hai cung b pha san, song cong ty ln sau khi t giam
gia e trng phat oi thu a phai chu lo va suy yeu i nhieu. C the tiep tuc cho en
khi cong ty th 5 nhay vao va chien thang cong ty ln. iem sai lam cua lap luan nay
la: cong ty nho nao cung muon lam cong ty th 5 va khong cong ty nao muon lam
cong ty au tien nhay vao th trng ca. Trong khi o cong ty ln se thc hien chnh
sach "neu gng": trng phat mot cong ty nho trc, e cac cong ty nho khac thay the
ma chun bc nhay vao th trng. Bang cach o, cong ty ln a tao ra uy tn
(reputation) cua mnh oi vi cac cong ty nho.
Trong cuoc au tr e nham tao uy tn, cong ty ln luon phai gi ung chien lc cua
mnh, e cac cong ty nho co niem tin, t o xac nh iem can bang Bayes cua mnh
la khong nen ch vi cong ty ln. Trong lch s Trung quoc, cau chuyen "Khong
Minh gay an uoi T Ma Y" la mot th du ve viec mot ben tao c chien lc
thanh cong khong phai do sc manh ma do uy tn. Mot lan T Ma Y bat ng em
quan en trai cua Khong Minh. Luc nay Khong Minh khong co quan lnh ma ch co
mot vai lnh hau. Khong Minh a cho m ca thanh va len lau gay an. T Ma Y
khong thay Khong Minh phong thu, lai biet uy tn Khong Minh la ngi lam mu. V
niem tin la mnh co the b Khong Minh la, T Ma Y a i en quyet nh rat "can
bang Bayes" - la rut lui. Trong kinh doanh cung vay. Cau chuyen cua Kim Woo
Chong (cu chu tch cong ty Daewoo) la mot v du. Khi Deawoo con la mot cong ty

69

nho, mot lan cong ty ky hp ong xuat khau vai i Indonesia. Chang may sau o vai
len gia va cong ty b lo nang. Tuy nhien Daewoo van vay tien e mua hang giao cho
khach. Cau chuyen nay a tao c uy tn cua Deawoo khong nhng oi vi khach
hang Indonesia ma con vi nhieu khach hang khac. Cac cau truyen tren cho thay vai
tro quan trong cua uy tn trong cac cuoc au tr lap lai.
Cac cong ty nho muon oi choi vi cong ty ln can phai biet cong tac (co-operation).
Qua hp tac, cac chi ph cua cong ty au tien chong lai s trng phat cua cong ty ln
se c chia eu cho cac cong ty thanh vien. Mot th du ien hnh la viec cac thanh
vien cua Hiep hoi Thuy san Viet nam (VASEP) cung chia se chi ph e theo uoi vu
kien chong pha gia ve ca basa Hoa ky nam 2002. Cac nha lam luat can lu y en
ac iem nay e giup cac cong ty nho hp tac vi nhau, hay e ngan can hanh vi
gian gia trng phat cua cac cong ty ln.
Ket luan
Cac cuoc au tr lap lai thng kho phan tch. Trc tien la cac thong tin chung von
la nen tang cua viec ap dung phng phap qui nap ngc nay khong con chnh xac
na. Sau o la viec thi gian cua cac cuoc au tr nay keo dai qua lau se anh hng
en cai nhn cua moi ngi chi ve ket qua trc mat va ket qua lau dai cua moi
chien lc.
Cac chien lc ma chung ta tao dng cac chng trc khi vao chng nay ch ap
dung c neu nhng ngi chi cung hieu luat chi nh nhau va cung co chung mot
quan niem ve iem can bang. Trong khi o, theo qui tac co, co the tm rat nhieu iem
can bang trong cac cuoc au tr lap lai.
Trc tnh hnh o, cau noi cua Ton t: "biet mnh biet ngi, tran tran tram thang" to
ra ung an hn bao gi het. Ve ban than, ngi chi phai xay dng c cho mnh
uy tn, e nhng ngi chi khac phai chi theo luat le ma mnh at ra - cho du o la
chien lc "cng ran" hay "theo uoi". Ngoai ra, ngi chi phai tm hieu loi chi cua
oi phng e xem ho co chien lc ung nh mnh ngh hay khong. Ngi chi phai
kp thi phat hien dau hieu thay oi chien lc cua oi phng trc khi oi phng
kp thay oi.
V cac cuoc au tr lap lai rat phong phu a dang, nen vai tro tot nhat cua phap luat
trong cac trng hp nay la thu ong (khong can thiep). S can thiep cua phap luat
ch can thiet khi mot ngi chi ap at loi chi cua mnh, gay thiet hai cho nhng
ngi chi khac, va s ap at nay mang tnh lau dai, co he thong.

70

Chng 6: Hanh vi tap the, cac cuoc au tr ngam va

nhng han che cua cac mo hnh n gian

Cac cuoc au tr "nghi pham" va "san hu" cho ta thay ngi chi co the v muc ch
ca nhan cua mnh ma t bo muc ch tap the, ngay ca khi muc ch tap the o la giai
phap toi u cho ca oi ben. Khong phai ngi nao cung tot va suy ngh nh anh chu
nhiem hp tac xa trong bai th cung ten cua Hoang Trung Quan: "nc noi lo chi beo
chang noi." Khi mot ngi hanh ong v ong c ca nhan ma khong b trng phat,
ngi khac se bat chc. Hanh vi ca nhan se tr thanh hanh vi tap the (collective
action). Khai niem nay con c mo ta bang cac danh t khac nh phan ng day
chuyen hay domino (domino effects, spillover effects).
Nhieu cong trnh nghien cu kinh te hoc ve hanh vi tap the a c nghien cu, nhat
la oi vi hanh vi tap the dan en viec pha hoai tai san cong (the tragedy of the
common). V mot trong nhng vai tro cua nha nc la bao ve tai san cong va phuc vu
muc ch cong cong, kiem soat va han che hanh vi tap the la moi quan tam hang au
oi vi cong tac quan ly nha nc.
Trong chng nay, chung ta se xem xet li ch ca nhan khac li ch tap the cho nao,
va lam the nao e hoa nhap cac li ch nay. Chung ta se xem xet xem tai sao khi ap
dung cac mo hnh au tr n gian e giai quyet cac van e thuoc ve hanh vi tap the.
Khong phai bat c bieu hien cua hanh vi tap the nao cung co the c qui ve mo hnh
"nghi pham." oi khi moi quan he chien lc gia cac ben nen c giai thch di
mo hnh "san hu", "anh em" hay mot so mo hnh khac. Chung ta cung nen lu y
rang nhng mo hnh au tr khong nen xet mot cach rieng re, ma phai xet mot cach
tong the, v no co the la mot phan "chm" trong mot tong the au tr ln hn rat nhieu.
Khi mot cuoc au tr nho c hoa nhap trong mot cuoc au tr khac ln hn, chien
lc toi u cua no phai c xet en trong mot tong the ln va se b cac anh hng
tng tac.
Phan cuoi cua chng nay se xem xet mot so hanh vi tap the co lien quan en van e
thong tin rieng (mot ben co li the so vi ben kia v nam c nhieu thong tin hn).
Sau o chung ta cung se xem xet en van e lien quan en cuoc cach mang cong
nghe thong tin hien nay - o la lap tieu chuan (standard setting), hieu ng/ngoai to
mang (network externality) va cac bien phap phong nga.

71

Hanh vi tap the va vai tro cua phap luat

Gia s chung ta xet mot ngi lao ong muon xin viec lam. Moi quan tam cua anh ta
la lam sao kiem c nhieu tien nhat. Tuy nhien "kiem tien" khong co ngha la thu
tiem vao nhieu nhat, ma phai hieu la hieu so doanh thu - chi ph/rui ro cao nhat. Th
du mot ngi lam giao vien co the c lanh 15 ong/gi, vi rui ro la 1 ong/gi (co
kha nang b lao phoi do giang bai va ht bui phan). Neu ngi o chuyen sang lam
cong viec rui ro cao hn (11 ong/gi - th du lai xe ua) th anh ta phai nhan 25
ong/gi mi tng ng. Mac dau vay, xet ve mat tam ly th ngi lao ong ch
quan tam en tien lng ma t quan tam en cai gia phai tra e c ong lng ay.
Thong tin ve rui ro moi trng lam viec la mot loai tai san cong cong (public good).
Ai cung can no, nhng t ai bo tien ra e mua no neu co ngi ang s dung ma
khong phai tra tien (free riding). Th du e co thong tin ve rui ro ni lam viec, ngi
xin viec co the hoi nhng ngi ang lam viec xem ho cam thay cong viec ho lam
nh the nao. Ngoai ra, ho co the xem cac thong tin san co - nh bao cao cua uy ban
an toan lao ong ve mc o rui ro cua cac loai hnh nghe nghiep. Phap luat cung co
the can thiep vao qua trnh cung cap tai san cong cong bang cach buoc ngi s dung
lao ong phai nop bao cao ve ieu kien an toan lao ong trong c quan mnh len S
lao ong Thng binh Xa hoi e thong ke. Sau o cac thong tin nay c cung cap
mien ph cho ngi i xin viec.
Mong muon s dung thong tin ma khong phai tra tien (goi tat la "nh va" - free
riding) cung phan anh tam ly chung "tang xin, giam mua" cua con ngi. V la tam ly
chung nen hanh vi ca nhan de tr thanh hanh vi tap the. Th du tren cho thay co hai
cach giai quyet van e nh va. Mot la nha nc ng ra thu thap tai san cong cong
(thong tin) va phat mien ph cho moi ngi - luc nay khong con ai nh va ai. Nha
nc lam viec nay bang cach yeu cau ngi co thong tin cung cap thong tin. Tuy
nhien v nha nc hoat ong khong v muc ch kinh te, nen chat lng thong tin co
the se khong cao. Phng phap th hai ma cac nha lam luat can lu tam la m rong

pham vi can bang chien lc cua nhng ngi chi trong cuoc au tr. Nh o, ho co
the co nhng chien lc va toi u cho ban than ho, va lam tang so lng tai san
cong cong. Th du, e tm hieu cac thong tin ve rui ro cong viec, ngi lao ong co
the t thanh lap cac hiep hoi cung chia se chi ph thu thap thong tin. S khac nhau
gia phng phap th nhat va phng phap th hai giong nh cach giai quyet tm
iem can bang cho cuoc au tr Chng 4: tac ong vao ngi co thong tin e ho
phat tn hieu, hay tac ong vao ngi khong co thong tin e ho t chon loc thong tin
can thiet.

72

au tr chm
Ngi Viet nam thng co cau "thay vay ma khong phai vay" e ch cac quyet nh
be ngoai co ve khong khon ngoan, song ben trong nham vao mot muc ch khac ln
hn. Thc vay, cac cuoc au tr oi khi co the c tach rieng re, song nhieu khi can
phai c xet ve tong the no "chm" (embedded game) trong mot cuoc au tr khac.
e xet en van e nay, chung ta xet hai mo hnh au tr n gian gom 2 ngi nh
trong chng 1. Hai ngi phai ra quyet nh cung luc va oc lap vi nhau. Ket qua
cua moi ngi se phu thuoc vao quyet nh cua ca hai ngi. Dang mo hnh th nhat
la au tr gia nhng ngi canh tranh nhau (th du au tr nghi pham). Dang th hai
la gia nhng ngi muon hp tac vi nhau (th du au tr anh em). Hai dang nay gop
thanh mot dang goi la au tr hanh vi tap the n gian. Hai mo hnh nay kha tru
tng, tuy nhien no neu c nhng van e c ban nhat cua au tr chm - cung nh
nguyen ly th 3 cua triet hoc Mac: nguyen ly au tranh va thong nhat gia cac mat
oi lap.

Mo hnh canh tranh:

Ngi 1

Len
Xuong

Mo hnh hp tac:
Ngi 1

Len
Xuong

Ngi 2
Trai
2, 2
1.5, 3

Phai
3, 1.5
2.5, 2.5

Ngi 2
Trai
6, 1.5
0, 0

Phai
0, 0
1, 3

Nh a giai thch chng 1, trong mo hnh canh tranh, iem can bang Nash la (2,2).
Trong mo hnh hp tac co hai iem can bang Nash: (6, 1.5) va (1, 3). V co hai iem
can bang nen chung ta khong the oan c ket qua sau cung cua mo hnh hp tac.
Tnh hnh thay oi neu chung ta cho mo hnh hp tach "chm" vao trong mot cuoc au
tr khac ln hn. Gia s trong cuoc au tr nay ngi th 1 i trc. Sau o ngi th
hai se la chon: hoac la chi canh tranh va nhan iem can bang Nash (2, 2), hoac la
chi hp tac va can nhac mot trong hai iem can bang: (6, 1.5 va 1,3).
Ngi 1 sang trai

(2, 2)

Ngi 1 sang phai

Ngi 2
Trai

Phai

73

Len
6, 1.5
0, 0
Xuong 0, 0
1, 3
Neu ngi th nhat quyet nh sang trai th ngi th hai khong co cach nao khac la
sang trai, va ngi th nhat i len (ket qua can bang Nash la 2,2). ay la trng hp
ien hnh cua hanh vi tap the: ca hai ch lam nhng g co li nhat cho mnh va khong
ngh g en quyen li tap the, cho du ve lau dai neu ho lo en quyen li tap the th ho
co li hn. Ngi co loi chnh ay la ngi th nhat, v anh ta a i sang trai (khong
muon hp tac). Tuy nhien chung ta can nh rang ngi th nhat khong i sang trai
"cho vui". Anh ta i sang trai khi ngh rang i sang phai khong co li g hn, hay co
the co li song rui ro hn. Neu chung ta tm cach e lam ngi th nhat yen tam la
rui ro se khong xay ra th anh ta se chon hng i sang phai.
Ngi 1

Ngi th hai ch quyet nh sang trai hay sang phai sau khi ngi th nhat quyet nh
sang phai. Neu ngi th hai quyet nh sang phai th ngi th nhat ch co cach
ong thi i xuong (ket qua can bang Nash 1, 3; tc la ngi th nhat nhan c 1,
ngi th hai nhan c 3). Nh vay neu ngi th nhat biet ngi th hai sau o se
i sang phai th nc au tien anh ta se khong bao gi i sang phai ma phai i sang
trai (v anh ta se nhan c ket qua sau cung la 2 thay v la 1). Ngi th hai phai
biet ieu nay.
Neu ngi th hai la ngi co ly tr (hay theo cach hieu cua ngi th nhat th la
ngi "biet ieu") th khi thay ngi th nhat i sang phai, anh ta phai i sang trai.
Khi nay ngi th nhat se ong thi i len, va ca hai se at iem can bang Nash la (6,
1.5). iem nay neu tnh trong mo hnh hp tac thong thng th khong phai la iem
can bang duy nhat, nhng neu tnh mo hnh hp tac chm trong mot cuoc au tr khac
th la iem can bang duy nhat.
V nc th hai, hai ngi phai i ong thi, nen co the se kho bao am la ngi
th hai i sang trai. Neu ngi th hai oi y i sang phai th ngi th nhat se hoi han
ve viec mnh a sang phai. Ta co the thay oi cach chi cua hai ngi t dang n
gian (hai ngi chi ong thi) thanh dang m rong (mot ngi chi trc, ngi kia
chi sau). Thay v nc th 2 ta cho ngi th 2 i, ta se cho ngi th nhat i lien
tiep bc 1 va bc 2. Nh vay ngi th nhat se sang phai roi sau o i len: ngi
th hai ch con co cach sang trai. Nh vay th t chi anh hng en cach chi va ket
qua chi.
Cach cho ngi th nhat i hai nc se khien ngi th hai the phai chap nhan mot
viec a roi va khong the quyet nh c g, nhng neu cho ngi th hai i nc th
hai th ngi th nhat ri vao the b ong. Vay phai giai quyet mau thuan nay nh the
nao?

74

Trong thc te co rat nhieu tnh trang kho x nh vay khi c quan lap phap phai ban
hanh mot van ban phap luat. Th du neu Viet nam gia nhap To chc Thng mai The
gii (WTO), Viet nam phai cho phep cac ngan hang nc ngoai c phep nhan tien
Viet nam gi tiet kiem va cho vay bang tien Viet nam. Rui ro se xay ra: ngan hang
nc ngoai co the nang lai suat len cao mot cach gia tao, khien ngi Viet nam rut
tien t ngan hang Viet nam va gi vao ngan hang nc ngoai. Khi o cac ngan hang
Viet nam se thieu tien mat va co the phai pha san. Nha nc khong the in them tien
cho ngan hang v nh the se gay ra lam phat. Vay ngan hang Viet nam se phai oi
pho bang cach nao? Cau tra li ch co mot: ho cung phai tang lai suat len theo ngan
hang nc ngoai. Nhng ngan hang khong the tang lai suat tien gi len vo han trong
khi lai suat cho vay khong the tang. e ngan hang hoat ong co hieu qua, lai suat cho
vay phai ln hn lai suat tien gi. Co ngi bien luan: khi ngan hang nc ngoai tang
lai suat tien gi, ho bat buoc phai tang lai suat cho vay. Nh vay doanh nghiep Viet
nam i vay ngan hang nao cung the, va ca ngan hang Viet nam va ngan hang nc
ngoai eu se co khach hang.
Bien luan nay khong ung vi tnh hnh Viet nam. Nhieu doanh nghiep nha nc
ang lam an khong co hieu qua. Cac doanh nghiep nay vay c tien cua ngan hang
Viet nam vi lai suat u ai khong phai v ho co tai san the chap, ma v ngan hang
phai cho vay theo ch nh cua Chnh phu. Khi ngan hang Viet nam phai canh tranh
khoc liet vi ngan hang nc ngoai, ho se khong the u ai cac doanh nghiep nha
nc c na. Cac doanh nghiep lam an thua lo se phai ong ca. Van e la cho
nhieu doanh nghiep nh Gang thep Thai Nguyen hay Det Nam nh hien ang co
hang chuc nghn cong nhan. ong ca cac nha may o se dan en bat on xa hoi. Khi
truy moi viec ve nguon goc nh vay ngi ta se at cau hoi: vay ngay t au Viet
nam co nen tham gia vao WTO khong? Cau tra li rat hien nhien: co, v neu khong
hoi nhap trong nen kinh te toan cau hoa se b tut hau. Nhng lam the nao va hoi
nhap, va thoa man cac ieu kien cua WTO at ra, va phat trien kinh te, va on
nh xa hoi?
Cau tra li co the la: van cho cac ngan hang nc ngoai nhan tien gi bang tien Viet
nam, nhng han che lai suat tien gi. Quy nh nay co trai vi yeu cau cua WTO
trong thi gian au, v the phai co lch trnh bai bo han che lai suat. Song song theo
o, cac ngan hang Viet nam phai tang sc canh tranh va u ai khach hang nh ngan
hang nc ngoai u ai. ieu nay tat yeu se dan en chuyen cac doanh nghiep nha
nc lam an kem hieu qua se khong con c ho tr nh trc. That nghiep trong mot
vai nam au la khong the tranh khoi, nen nha nc phai tao ieu kien cho cac cong
nhan lam cho doanh nghiep nha nc chuyen cho lam, ngh hu hay ao tao lai. oi
vi cong nhan en tuoi ngh hu, nha nc con phai tao ieu kien cho con cai ho tm
c cong an viec lam (co ngi khong chu vehu ch v muon gi cho cho con).

75

Nh vay ket qua sau cung la nh nhau (Viet nam se cho cac ngan hang nc ngoai
vao hoat ong tren th trng tien Viet nam, va cac doanh nghiep lam an kem se phai
giai the). Tuy nhien th t va cach giai quyet la khac nhau. Th du tren con cho thay
nhieu quy nh mi nghe tng chng vo ly (th du han che ngi Viet nam gi tien
tet kiem cho ngan hang nc ngoai) nhng neu xet tong the nhieu van e th co the
o la giai phap phu hp tnh the.
Tr lai van e au tr "chm" va cac hanh vi tap the. Muon ngi th hai i sang trai
khi ngi th nhat i nc au tien sang phai, th phai lam cho ngi th hai tin rang:
neu ngi th nhat sang phai th bc tiep theo se la i len, bat ke ngi th hai i
nh the nao. Nh vay, ngi th nhat phai xay dng c uy tn khien cho e doa cua
mnh (oi vi nc tiep theo - i len) la li e doa ang s (credible threat - xem
chng 5). e co uy tn, ngi th nhat co the se phai chu lo mot vai lan (neu ngi
th hai co tnh i sang phai). Nhng neu gia tr cua thanh cong (vi rui ro) cao gap 3
lan gia tr thanh cong "an toan" th ay la chien lc khon ngoan. Neu ngi th nhat
i sang trai, anh ta ch co the trong i ket qua la 2. Neu anh ta sang phai va xay
dng c uy tn cho mnh, anh ta co quyen hy vong thu c 6 (cao gap 3 lan).
Bai toan ve au tr chm cung cho ta thay rang muon tr c hanh vi "li dung", "nh
va" hay cac hanh vi tap the khac, can phai co 1 ngi chi co uy tn, u e hng
nhng ngi chi con lai theo hng mo hnh hp tac. Ngi co uy tn la ngi co
quyen li ln nhat trong mo hnh hp tac, hay la ngi thiet hai nhieu nhat neu hanh
vi tap the xay ra.
Bai toan au tr chm tren cung co the giai bang cach khac, theo o ngi th hai
noi trc vi ngi th nhat rang neu ngi th nhat i sang phai, anh ta se i sang
trai. Tat nhien ngi th nhat se co rui ro la ngi th hai se nuot li ha. Tuy nhien
neu hai ngi au tr vi nhau nhieu lan (lap lai) th ngi th hai phai suy tnh ky
xem gi li ha co li hn hay nuot li ha co li hn. Neu ngi th hai nuot li
ha, ngi th nhat co hai cach giai quyet: mot la i xuong (1, 3), hai la i len (0, 0).
Ho co the dung phng an th hai, nh la li ran e oi vi hanh vi nuot li ha cua
ngi th nhat va lan sau ho se chi mo hnh canh tranh. Xet ve cuc bo, ngi th
nhat b thiet hai do a b nuot li ha, song ve tong the th ngi th hai cung khong
c li hn g ngi th nhat.
Tom lai, li giai cua van e hanh vi tap the la:
1)
Ca hai ngi phai thong nhat vi nhau cach hanh ong thong qua noi chuyen
(cheap talk); va
2)
Ca hai ngi phai xay dng c uy tn cho mnh, va ngi co li nhat trong
viec hp tac (hay thiet hai nhieu nhat neu hanh vi tap the xay ra) phai co u
uy tn e thc hien li e doa cua mnh khi can thiet.

76

Qua au tr chm, chung ta thay rang mo hnh canh tranh la nguon goc cua hanh vi tap
the. Tuy nhien neu at mo hnh o chm trong mot cuoc au tr khac (co s tham gia
cua mo hnh hp tac) th mo hnh canh tranh co the la ong lc e giai quyet van e
hanh vi tap the. Khi so sanh gia viec chap nhan hanh vi tap the (mo hnh canh
tranh) va kien tr theo uoi muc ch dai han (mo hnh hp tac), ngi chi co the
thay i theo mo hnh hp tac co kho khan song ket qua sau cung se xng ang vi no
lc mnh bo ra. Ngi thay ro nhat la ngi co li nhat khi hp tac hay b thiet hai
nhieu nhat khi hanh vi tap the xay ra.
Nhan xet tren se ro hn neu chung ta lien tng nhan xet tren vi viec ben vay xem
xet co nen vi pham hp ong vay n (khong tra n) hay khong. Khi nay viec ben vay
co the b kien va ton chi ph kien tung (mo hnh canh tranh) se lam ho chun bc khi
ngh en viec lam dung hay cac hanh vi tap the nao khac.
Tm hieu cau truc cua cac cuoc au tr m rong
au tr chm ch co the tm c iem can bang neu ngi chi nhan ra c rang
mnh ang trong nhieu cuoc au tr an xen vi nhau. Neu ho lam tng ma ngh
rang mnh ang trong dang au tr thong thng th ho khong the co nhng chien
lc ung an. Th du sau ay ve luat pha san cho ta thay ieu nay.
Khi mot doanh nghiep b pha san, cac chu n bao gi cung ngh en chuyen oi c
n cua mnh trc khi cac chu n khac oi n. Ho khong he quan tam en viec nhng
chu n con lai co oi c n khong. Mien ban than ho oi c n la tot roi. Te
hn, ho co the bo tien ra lam nhng hanh vi thu li (rent seeking) sao cho ngi khac
khong oi c tien trc khi ho oi tien. Van e nay c goi la "common pool"
(tam dch la "ao chung": ai cung muc nc cho mnh trc, khong ngh en chuyen e
danh nc cho ai ca). o cung la mot dang hanh vi tap the.
Tuy nhien neu cac chu n nhn ky, ho se thay rang ho khong phai ang tham gia mot
hanh vi tap the, ma cuoc au tr cua ho ang "chm" trong mot cuoc au tr ln hn.
Co rat nhieu loai chu n: co bao am, khong co bao am, n ung ho (subordinated
debt - ngha la chu n t nguyen xep sau chu n khong co bao am khac) v.v. Cho du
ho co khon ngoan th nhng hanh vi thu li cua ho cha chac g a la chien lc toi
u.
Hay ngh en mot cach giai quyet khac. Gia thiet con n co c hoi tham gia vao mot
d an. Gia tr d kien cua d an la $115. Xac suat kiem c $84 la 20% va kiem
c $112.75 la 80%. Ta goi trng hp nay la "ngi vay rui ro thap." e tham gia
vao d an ho phai vay $100 t hai ngi (lai suat gia s la 0), moi ngi $50.

77

Gia s viec vay n c tien hanh ma khong co cac cong cu bao am (security
interest). Cong viec duy nhat ma cac chu n lam sau khi cho vay la theo doi con n.
Chi ph theo doi cua chu n th nhat la $5 va cua chu n th hai la $8. Neu mot chu
n theo doi con chu n kia khong theo doi th khi con n vi pham ch co chu n theo
doi kp oi tien. Neu ca hai cung theo doi hay cung khong theo doi th ca hai se oi
c tien theo t le so tien cho vay vi so tien nhan c. Nh vay ve mat li ch xa
hoi th theo doi khong co li, ch co li cho ca nhan chu n, va vi ieu kien la ngi
kia khong theo doi.
Muc tieu at ra la thiet ke mot mo hnh sao cho cac chu n khong can phai theo doi,
cho du mot trong hai ngi cho rang ngi kia ang theo doi. Nh vay cac chu n se
tiet kiem c chi ph theo doi. Chung ta xet bang sau (ket qua la so tien nhan c
tr i tien theo doi):

Ngi vay rui ro thap Ngi 2

(20%)
Khong theo doi Theo doi
Ngi 1

Khong theo doi

Theo doi

50, 50
47, 48

48, 44
45, 42

Trng hp tren la cuoc au tr trong trng hp ngay vay rui ro thap. Bay gi chung
ta thiet ke mot trng hp au tr khac sao cho khi khong ai theo doi th moi ngi
c $50. Gia thiet neu khong co s can thiep cua phap luat th khi khong theo doi va
d an cua ngi vay that bai, ngi cho vay ch nhan c $42. Xac suat that bai la
20%. e nhan c gia tr trung bnh la $50 va bu c so tien mat la $8 khi that bai,
ngi vay phai tnh lai suat la $2 (ca lai lan von la $52 trong 80% trng hp).
Gia s ngi th 1 theo doi va ngi th 2 khong theo doi, ngi th 1 se nhan c
$52 ke ca khi d an that bai. Tuy nhien ho phai ton $5 cho moi lan theo doi. Tnh xac
suat trung bnh th ho ch nhan c $47. Ap dung ngc lai (ngi 1 khong theo doi
va ngi 2 theo doi, chi ph theo doi la $8), th ket qua trung bnh cua ngi 2 tnh
theo xac suat se la $44 (xem bang tren). V chien lc toi u cua moi ngi la phan
ng an toan nhat oi vi moi chien lc cua ngi kia, iem can bang Nash cua au
tr se la "khong ai theo doi."
Gia thiet bay gi ngi vay rui ro cao (gia tr d kien van la $115, nhng ch co 50%
trng hp thanh cong). Nh vay khi thanh cong th ngi vay phai kiem c $146
va khi that bai phai kiem c $84. Chung ta kiem tra xem co trng hp nao ca hai
khong theo doi va van nhan c $50 hay khong. Neu chung ta an nh ket qua trung
bnh la $50 va rui ro ch nhan c $42 la 50% (thiet $8), th lai suat phai la $8.

78

Ngi vay rui ro cao (50%) Ngi 2

Ngi 1

Khong theo doi

Theo doi

Khong theo doi Theo doi

50, 50
42, 50
53, 42
45, 42

Bay gi chung ta tm ieu kien e trong hnh tren chien lc "khong ai theo doi" (50,
50) la iem can bang Nash. Ta thay ieu kien nay khong thoa man. Khi ngi 1 theo
doi, ho se nhan c $58 - $5 (chi ph theo doi) = $53 > $50. Nh vay ho se luon theo
doi.
Bay gi gia s ca hai cung theo doi. Khi nay e viec theo doi co li ngi vay phai
tra cho ca hai khong nhng lai suat ma ca chi ph theo doi. Nh vay so tien ma ca hai
mong i (expected value) khong phai la $100 ma la $100 + $5 + $8 = $113, trong o
ngi 1 nhan c $55 va ngi 2 nhan c $58. Goi x la so tien thu c khi thanh
cong, th ta co phng trnh xac suat: 0,5x + (1 - 0,5)84 = 113. Suy ra x = $142. Goi
u va v la so tien ngi 1 va ngi 2 nhan c khi thanh cong, ta co:

0,5 .142.u + 0,5.84.u = 55, nh vay u = $69, tr chi ph theo doi ($5) th con $64.

0,5 .142.v + 0,5.84.v = 58, nh vay v = $73, tr chi ph theo doi ($8) th con $65.

Ngi vay rui ro cao (50%) Ngi 2

can bang = (50,50)
Khong theo doi Theo doi
Ngi 1

Khong theo doi

Theo doi

55, 58
64, 44

40, 65
50, 50

Neu ngi 2 theo doi ma ngi 1 khong theo doi th khi d an that bai, ngi 1 se
nhan c $84 - $73 = $11. Nh vay tnh trung bnh ngi 1 neu khong theo doi th
nhan c $69.0,5 + $11.0,5 = $40. Nh vay neu ngi 2 theo doi th ngi 1 nen
theo doi. Tnh tng t cho ngi 2, ta cung ket luan neu ngi 1 theo doi th ngi 2
cung nen theo doi. Vay iem can bang Nash la ca hai cung theo doi va ket qua la (50,
50).
Nh vay neu ca 2 ngi 1 va 2 la nhng chu n khong co bao am,th viec ho co theo
doi ngi i vay hay khong tuy thuoc vao viec ngi nay co rui ro thap hay cao. Neu
vay cho nhng d an co rui ro thap th ngi cho vay khong can phai theo doi, v chi
ph theo doi vt qua tien lai do hp ong vay mang lai. Neu vay cho nhng d an
rui ro cao th ngi vay can phai theo doi, va nh vay ho cung se phai tang lai suat
cho hp ong vay. Tuy nhien chung ta can lu y mot ieu la du co theo doi hay
khong th xac suat thanh cong/that bai cua ngi i vay van khong oi. Tien theo doi
la mot loai tien lang ph (theo thuat ng kinh te la "thu li" hay rent-seeking). Nh
vay phap luat phai tm c c che sao cho ngi cho vay khong phai theo doi ma
van thu c so tien mnh muon.
79

Cau tra li hien nhien cho van e tren la bien cac chu n khong am bao thanh chu
n co am bao (security interest). Khai niem "security interest" Viet nam cha ro,
nen toi tam dch la "am bao" e phan biet vi thuat ng "bao am" (security) trong
phap luat. Neu dch chnh xac th security interest co ngha la trai quyen (th du
chng ch qu au t - investment certificate - hay quyen mua co phieu - option). Neu
mot trong hai chu n la chu n co am bao, th ngi con lai du co theo doi hay khong
th ket qua sau cung cua ho cung khong oi. Gia s ngi i vay am bao rang trong
moi trng hp ngi th nhat se nhan c $50, th ngi nay se khong co ly do g
e tnh them lai suat e bu rui ro. Ngc lai ngi th hai se co kha nang tnh them
lai suat e bu rui ro sao cho tnh trung bn th mnh van nhan c $50. Ta co bang
sau:

Ngi vay rui ro cao (50%) Ngi 2

ngi 2 tnh lai suat bu
Khong theo doi Theo doi
Ngi 1

Khong theo doi

Theo doi

50, 50
45, 50

50, 42
45, 42

Theo bang nay, th neu ngi 1 theo doi, ho se ch nhan c 50 - 5 = $45. V ngi 2
a tnhtrung bnh la se nhan c $50, nen neu ho theo doi th ch nhan c 50 - 8 =
$42, thay v $50 neu khong theo doi. Nh vay iem can bang Nash cua ca hai ngi
la ca hai khong theo doi. Th du tren cho ta thay ch can mot ngi c am bao th
ho se khong co ly do g e "khon hn" ngi kia, va ngc lai ngi kia cung khong
viec g phai e phong, va nh vay ca hai tiet kiem c chi ph theo doi. Ta co the
lien he thc te qua cau chuyen chay ua vu trang. Neu gia cac quoc gia khong co s
tin cay hieu biet lan nhau, moi nc eu gia tang cac chi ph quan s e bao ve chu
quyen cua mnh. Neu mot quoc gia ngng leo thang chi ph quan s, th cac nc lang
gieng cung se t xem xet ma giam bt chi ph quoc phong cua mnh. Cac nc a lam
ung theo nguyen tac: "ngi khong ung en ta th ta khong ung en ngi", giai
quyet c van e cac hanh vi tap the.
Ngi i vay cung cap am bao cho mot ngi a lam giam ang ke lai suat ma mnh
phai tra them, cho du ngi cho vay con lai la chu n khong co bao am. ieu nay
phan anh unh xu hng thc te: cac con n rui ro cao can phai cung cap am bao,
con cac con n rui ro thap thng khong can phai lam nh vay.
Qua v du tren ta thay: nhieu van e nhn thoang qua co ve nh la mot cuoc au tr
canh tranh (gia hai chu n vi nhau). Tuy nhien neu cho cuoc au tr nay chm trong
mot cuoc au tr khac (gia con n va chu n) th cuoc au tr au tien se tr thanh
cuoc au tr hp tac. Ca hai ben se giai quyet c nan hanh vi tap the bang cach
ieu chnh lai cau truc vay (portfolio structure) cua con n.

80

Bai hoc nay nhn qua th thay co the ap dung cho nhieu trng hp au tr khac: gia
cac nhan vien trong c quan vi nhau, gia cac co ong trong cung mot cong ty, gia
hai cong ty cung hp tac nghien cu phat trien san pham. Thc te khong phai vay.
Cach giai quyet th du tren da tren gia thiet: ban chat cua hanh vi tap the la s
khi phat cua mot ong c vu li ca nhan. Neu ta dap tat ong c vu li cua mot
ngi th theo phan ng day chuyen ngi khac se khong con ong c vu li na. Tuy
nhien mo hnh au tr "theo doi con n" nay ch ung khi co hai chu n. Neu co ba
chu n ma ch co mot chu n la co am bao th hai chu n kia co the van se canh
tranh vi nhau. Trong trng hp nay muon dap tat ong c vu li th ngi i vay lai
phai cung cap am bao cho 1 trong hai chu n con lai. Tom lai la phng phap "cung
cap am bao" (hay con goi la phng phap "cu ca rot" [mem mong]) ch ap dung
trong mot so hanh vi tap the nho hep. oi vi nhng hanh vi khac th dung li le
(cheap talk), uy tn va "s e doa ang s" (hay con goi la phng phap "cay gay"
[cng ran]) nh a trnh bay au chng van phat huy tac dung.
Hanh vi tap the va thong tin rieng
Cac th du ban au ch ap dung cho trng hp ca hai eu nam thong tin nh nhau.
Sau ay chung ta se xet en trng hp anh hng cua thong tin rieng en cac hanh
vi tap the.
Gia s 100 ho trong mot khu pho ng Pham Ngu Lao nh sa sang con hem cua
mnh cho sach se, xay dng khu pho am thc hay khach san mini e thu hut du khach
nc ngoai. Tuy rang ai cung ngh ay la viec lam can thiet, song v con hem la "cua
chung" nen khong ai muon bo tien rieng vao lam. Tien sa con hem la $104.5. Uy
ban Nhan dan Phng (UBND) ch co y nh sa lai con hem neu thc s ba con khu
pho coi gia tr cua viec sa sang nay hn $104.5. Lam sao biet c thong tin nay?
Gia s moi ho coi viec con hem ep co gia tr oi vi mnh la $2 (ho kinh doanh), $1
(ho i lam) va $0 (hu tr). UBND co the yeu cau ba con khu pho bieu quyet viec sa
sang con hem. Neu d an c chap thuan, moi ho se ong $1.045.
Neu tien hanh bieu quyet nh vay, th ch co ho kinh doanh la chap thuan sa sang
con hem, con ho i lam va hu tr se khong chap thuan. Gia s trong khu pho co 30
ho kinh doanh th UBND ch thu c 30 phieu thuan. Can c vao bieu quyet, UBND
biet rang con hem sa lai ang gia t nhat la 30 x 2 = $60. Tat nhien tren thc te con
hem co gia tr hn, v neu trong 70 ho khong chap thuan ma 45 ho chu ong $1 (tong
cong $45) th gia tr cua con hem (60 + 45 = $105) se vt tien sa. Nhng v cach
phan bo chi ph khong cong bang nen cuoi cung UBND khong thu c u tien e sa
hem.

81

UBND co the tien hanh thu tien cach khac. Ho yeu cau moi ho ghi vao trong t giay
xem mnh nh gia xem con hem co gia tr vi mnh la $2, $1 hay $0, sau o bieu
quyet. Neu d an c chap thuan (cong tong gia tr cua cac t phieu ln hn
$104.5), moi ho se ong $1.045. Cach giai quyet nay la "bnh mi ru cu": ch cung
cap thong tin them cho UBND va cach thc bo phieu, con ket qua ong gop van
khong oi.
Khi nay, ngi nh gia con hem la $2 se ghi vao trong t giay la $2, v ho ch phai
ong $1.045 neu d an c chap thuan. Ngi nh gia con hem la $0 se ghi la $0.
Tuy nhien ngi nh gia con hem la $1 se khong ghi ung. Neu ho ghi $1 cho con
hem, ho se lam tang kha nang d an c chap thuan, sau o phai ong $1.045 va b
thiet. V the ho cung se ghi la $0.
Tat nhien tren ly thuyet co the yeu cau ho t nguyen nh gia con hem $2 ong ung
$2, ho t nguyen nh gia $1 ong ung $1, con ho nh gia $0 th khong phai ong.
Tuy nhien cach nay se khong kha thi v tam ly thch "nh va" (free ride) cua con
ngi. Ngi thc s nh gia con hem $2 se cong bo la mnh ch nh gia con hem
$1.5. Ngi nh gia con hem $1 se cong bo la mnh ch nh gia con hem $0.5 v.v.
Cuoi cung UBND cung khong nam c thong tin thc va cung khong huy ong u
tien e xay hem.
Cach lam cho moi ho nh gia con hem ung vi suy ngh thc cua mnh la gan viec
t nh gia vi viec con hem co c sa sang hay khong. Ngoai ra, phai co c che
khuyen khch sao cho ngi nh gia con hem c ong tien t hn gia tr con hem
ma mnh nh gia th ho mi chu noi that gia tr con hem.
Bay gi UBND lai yeu cau bieu quyet nh lan th hai, sau o cong tong so tien ghi
tren giay (ba con ch phai ong tien bang so tien mnh ghi). Neu tong so t hn
$104.5 th ba con se phai bu vao cho u (phng thc bu cha c tiet lo). Khi nay
ngi nh gia con hem la $1 se phai suy ngh. Hoac la ho ghi $0 hay $0.5 va se phai
bu tien sau o, hoac la gi $1 va se ch phai ong ung so tien mnh ghi (gia s co 30
ngi nh gia la $2 va 45 ngi nh gia la $1). Ho cang ghi thap th so tien bu cang
cao, co khi cong lai cao qua gia tr ma ho nh cho con hem. Nh vay neu tat ca
ngi chi la ngi "biet ieu" (rational) th ho se ghi ung gia tr cua con hem vao t
giay. Khi o ho se thu c va u so tien e xay con hem va cung khong thiet hai
g. Nh vay c che bieu quyet va roi cho khuyen khch cac ho ghi ung gia tr con
hem va cho ho thay viec no noi doi cung khong co ch li g. Trong kinh te no c
goi la c che Clark-Groves.

82

Ta goi chien lc "ghi ung" la chien lc toi u khong on nh (weakly dominant

strategy) cho cuoc au tr nay. Goi la khong on nh la v co the van co mot so ngi
van muon mnh khon hn ngi khac (tam ly "nh va") bang cach ghi gia tr thap. Ly
do la v khong ai phat hien ra va trng phat so ngi khon loi o. Ta co the minh hoa
qua mot cau chuyen trong ong Chu Liet Quoc: S Vng nghe nhac. S Vng rat
thch nghe nhac sao do nhieu ngi cung hoa tau. Nhieu ngi khong biet chi nhac
cung nhay vao dan nhac e gia v thoi sao. Ho cung c phan thng nh nhng
ngi biet chi nhac. en lt con S vng cung thch nghe nhac sao, nhng thai t
ch thch nghe tng ngi thoi. Nhng ngi "nh va" gi ay bo i mat ca. Cau
chuyen cua S vng ch ung thieu sot cua c che Clark-Grove: viec nam khong ay
u thong tin la ai "nh va" va ai "biet ieu" se khien cho hanh vi tap the phat sinh.
Tr lai cuoc au tr "sa hem." UBND se a ra mot c che mi. Theo c che nay,
ngi chi (cac ho) se khong co chien lc toi u. iem can bang se c goi la can
bang Bayes-Nash. Trc tien chung ta a cuoc au tr ve dang n gian. Gia s con
hem ch co hai ho va chi ph sa hem la $2.7. Cac ho co the nh gia viec sa con
hem oi vi mnh la $0, $1 va $2. Xac suat nh giamoi loai la 1/3. Neu ca hai nh
gia la $2, moi ho chu na chi ph. Neu mot ho nh gia la $1 va ho kia nh gia la $0
hay ca hai cung nh gia la $0 th con hem se khong c sa. Neu mot ho nh gia
la $1 va ho kia nh gia la $2 th ho nh gia thap se ong $1.25 va ho nh gia cao
ong $1.45. Neu mot ho nh gia $2 va ho kia nh gia $0 th con hem se khong c
sa, va ho nh gia $0 phai tra cho ho nh gia $2 la $0.3 tien phat v toi co tam ly
nh va.
Gia s ho 2 noi that gia tr cua con hem. Neu ho 1 noi gia tr con hem la $0, th 2/3 so
lan bieu quyet ho khong mat g, ch co 1/3 so lan bieu quyet la ho mat $0.3 v ho 2
noi gia tr la $2. Nh vay tnh trung bnh th ho 1 mat -$0.1 cho moi lan bieu quyet ($0.3/3).
Neu ho 1 noi gia tr cua con hem la $1, th 2/3 so lan bieu quyet ho khong mat g, con
trong 1/3 so lan (khi ho2 noi $2) th ho phai ong $1.25. Neu thc s ho 1 ngh gia tr
cua con hem la $0 th ho mat trung bnh -$0.42 cho moi lan bieu quyet ($1.25/3). Neu
ho 1 ngh gia tr thc la $1 th ho mat trung bnh -$0.08 cho moi lan bieu quyet
($0.25/3). Tng t neu ho 1 ngh gia tr thc la $2 th ho c trung bnh $0.25 cho
moi lan bieu quyet.
Neu ho 1 noi gia tr cua con hem la $2, th 1/3 so lan bieu quyet ho c tang $0.3 (v
ho 2 noi $0), va 2/3 trng hp con lai ho se cung xay con hem vi ho 2. Neu thc s
ho 1 ngh gia tr cua con hem la $0 th ho mat trung bnh -$0.83 cho moi lan bieu
quyet [$(1.45 + 1.35)/3]. Tng t neu ho 1 ngh gia tr thc la $1 th ho mat trung

83

bnh -$0.17 cho moi lan bieu quyet. Neu ho 1 ngh gia tr thc la $2 th ho c trung
bnh $0.50 cho moi lan bieu quyet. Chung ta xem bang phan tch sau:

Ket qua tng ng Gia tr that:

vi thong tin
$0
$1
Cong bo:

$0 -$0.10
$1 -$0.42
$2 -$0.83

-$0.10
-$0.08
-$0.17

$2
-$0.10
-$0.25
$0.50

Theo bang, chung ta se thay chien lc tot nhat la cong bo ung gia tr that. Neu gia
tr that la 0, th ket qua tot nhat la -$0.10 (tc la noi that), tng t vi cac gia tr
khac. Nh vay neu ho 1 noi that th ho 2 cung noi that va ngc lai. iem can bang
bang nay goi la Bayes-Nash v no va la toi u (Nash) va da tren niem tin ve chien
lc ma oi phng ap dung va toan xac suat (Bayes). ieu ac biet la e mo hnh
nay thanh cong, ngi chi khong can phai biet oi phng thc s anh gia con hem
nh the nao, ch can biet ban than mnh anh gia nh the nao. Nh vay dang n
gian, mo hnh nay a giai quyet c van e "nh va" hay cac hanh vi tap the (t moi
ngi eu biet la tot nhat nen trung thc).
Tuy nhien mo hnh nay co mot sai sot, o la neu ngi chi 1 nh gia tr thc cua con
hem la $0 hay $1 th ho luon lo cho du co iem can bang Bayes-Nash. V the ho se
khong tham gia vao xay dng con hem tr trng hp ho b bat buoc. Th du tren cho
thay khong nen qua tuyet oi hoa phng phap "cay gay" hay "cu ca rot", ma phai
ket hp hai phng phap tren vi nhau. Cay gay ch ap dung c va co hieu qua khi
con tho a c a cu ca rot ma khong chu an, hoac con tho se c a cu ca rot
trong lan au tr khac. Nh vay e cac mo hnh n gian ap dung c can xet en
tnh dai han cua chung va tng tac cua moi cuoc au tr vi cac cuoc au tr th cap.
Xet ve khia canh lap phap th chung ta rut c mot kinh nghiem: e loai tr hanh vi
tap the khong ch co long tin vao li ch chung, ma con phai biet trng phat ngi chi
khi ho i ra ngoai li ch chung o. Th du trong mo hnh tren, khi mot ngi nh gia
con hem la $0 va ngi kia nh gia la $2 th ngi nh gia thap phai nop cho ngi
nh gia cao la $0.30. Cha han la ngi nh gia thap a co tam ly nh va. Co the
ho cam thay xay dng con hem cung khong co li g. Tuy nhien ngi lam luat
khong nen "chieu long dan" mot cach vo loi, ma khi biet viec g ung (xay hem) th
phai cng quyet lam, cho du biet co ngi se b thiet hai. Chnh v vay ma trong
thc te chnh quyen cng quyet giai toa nha dan e xay dng cong trnh cong cong,
cho du viec xay dng cha han a co li cho ngi b en bu giai toa.
Hanh vi tap the trong cac quyet nh tiep theo

84

Mot trong cac muc ch cua phap luat hay cua chnh sach la ket hp cac nguon lc lai
vi nhau. oi khi chung ta khong quan tam la cac nguon lc phai ket hp nh the
nao, mien la co ket hp. Th du luat giao thong ng bo khong quan trong viec phai
i ben trai hay ben phai, mien la ngi i cung chieu th phai i mot ben, ngi i
ngc chieu th phai i phia ben kia. Trong nhieu trng hp cach ket hp nguon lc
ong vai tro quan trong, th du nh trong trng hp xay dng hieu ng mang
(network externality). Hieu ng nay xay ra khi mot o vat se tang gia tr neu so
ngi s dung o vat tng thch tang them. Th du mot chiec ien thoai co the khong
co gia tr g, nhng 100 ngi co ien thoai se khien gia tr cua chiec ien thoai tang
len, va 1 trieu ngi co ien thoai se lam chiec ien thoai tien li hn na. Tng t
phan mem van ban Win Word co gia tr khong phai v tren the gii nay ch co mot
loai phan mem van ban, ma v so lng ngi s dung Win Word la nhieu nhat. ieu
nay ly giai tai sao t le xam pham phan mem cua Viet nam la tren 90% (chu yeu la
Win Word), trong khi co rat nhieu phan mem van ban mien ph chay tren Linux ma
khong ai s dung. Noi mot cach de heu, hieu ng mang phat sinh khi con ngi co
nhu cau s dung cong cu e tng tac vi nhau (interaction) va nhu cau chuan hoa
cong cu (standardisation).
Hieu ng mang phat sinh hai van e. Mot la chuan co the c thiet lap qua ngan
(excess momentum), co ngha la tieu chuan cu cha c thiet lap th a co tieu
chuan mi ra i thay the. Th du phan mem van ban Word Perfect xuat hien ch vai
nam trc khi b Win Word thay the. Van e th hai la trong nhieu trng hp chuan
ton tai qua lau (excess inertia), khien cho cac chuan mi ra i khong c cong
chung cong nhan. ieu nay xay ra khi chuan cu c qua nhieu ngi su dung. ieu
nay de hnh dung neu so sanh he ieu hanh Windows (chuan cu) vi he ieu hanh
Linux (chuan mi).
Trong trng hp chuan ton tai qua lau, mau chot cua van e la cac hanh vi tap the.
Th du khi co qua nhieu ngi s dung mot chuan, ngi au tien chuyen sang chuan
mi se cam thay "co n" (v khong ai giong mnh). Th du hien nay rat t ngi chu
mua ien thoai di ong tieu chuan 3G. Tuy nhien neu nhieu ngi a chuyen sang
dung tieu chuan mi th nhng ngi con s dung tieu chuan cu se co tam ly "nh va"
(chuyen sang s dung tieu chuan mi e c hng li ch). Van e la cho khong
ai muon lam ngi au tien, ai cung muon ngi khac lam trc roi mnh lam theo.
Chung ta co the lien he tr lai cuoc au tr "giam gia trng phat" chng trc.
Trng hp chuan ton tai qua ngan cung la do cac hanh vi tap the, va do so lng
ngi s dung chuan cu qua t. Th du co ba ngi trong th trng ien thoai di ong.
Mot ngi (A) ang s dung chuan cu (mang Citynet), va hai ngi (B va C) cha s
dung chuan nao (co kha nang la chon gia Citynet va GSM). Gia s B va C cung
chon chuan cu se c li $19 moi ngi va neu cung chon chuan mi se c li

85

$20. B hay C chon chuan cu va ngi kia chon chuan mi th ngi s dung chuan
mi se khong c li g. Tuy nhien neu B a chon chuan mi trc th C khong nen
chon chuan cu v luc nay C se ch c li la 9 (v ch lien lac c vi A va khong
lien lac c vi B). Viec B chon chuan nao ong vai tro quyet nh, t o se tao ra
phan ng day chuyen va cac hanh vi tap the cua nhng ngi con lai. Chnh v vay
ma khi cac chuan cha c thiet lap vng chac, hay so khach hang tiem nang con
nhieu hn so khach hang cu, cac cong ty canh tranh tch cc vi nhau nham loi keo
khach hang mi. Cac cong ty tung chuan mi ra e canh tranh khi chuan cu cha hnh
thanh vng chac tr thanh nhng ngi "uc nc beo co" (v c hoi va nhu cau th
trng la do cong ty cu xay dng nen). S o sau ay mo hnh hoa cac van e chuan
ton tai qua ngan va qua lau:
Chuan ton tai qua ngan - Ket qua: (A, B,
C)
Ngi 1: chuan cu

Ngi 1: chuan mi

Ngi 2
chuan cu

Mi

Mi
Cu

(93, 19, 9)

(90, 18, 0)

(81, 20, 20)

(89, 0, 9)

Chuan ton tai qua lau - Ket qua: (A, B, C)

Ngi 1: chuan cu

Ngi 1: chuan mi

Ngi 2
chuan cu

Mi

Mi
Cu

(57, 11, 6)

(56, 11, 0)

(56, 0, 6)

(55, 10, 10)

Trong trng hp chuan ton tai qua lau, neu B chon chuan mi ma C chon chuan cu
th B ch c li la 0 va ngc lai. Ch trong trng hp ca hai chon chuan mi th
moi ngi c 10. Ve li ch tuyet oi th khi ca hai chon chuan cu B se li hn (11
so vi 10) va C se thiet hn (6 so vi 10). Tuy nhien v B chon trc nen B se chon
chuan cu va C cung khong co cach nao khac la chon chuan cu.
e tao c che khuyen khch cac cong ty sang tao khong ngng va canh tranh trong th
trng b anh hng cua hieu ng mang, cac nha lap phap ban hanh luat s hu tr

86

tue. Nh co loai luat oc quyen nay ma cac cong ty tao ra chuan mi co the ha gia
san pham trong thi gian au e loi keo khach hang mi va nang gia san pham trong
giai oan tiep theo e bu chi ph nghien cu va phat trien. Neu khong co luat s hu
tr tue th ngi tien phong se khong canh tranh noi vi nhng ngi i sau.
Ben canh luat s hu tr tue, luat canh tranh cung ong vai tro quan trong e phoi hp
cac nguon lc. Neu cac cong ty mi xuat hien cau ket vi nhau e tieu diet mot tieu
chuan cu ang trong thi gian ban au cha vng chac (excess momentum), chnh phu
can phai can thiep. My, chuan trnh duyet Internet au tien xuat hien (Netscape)
a m ra mot c hoi kinh doanh khong lo. Cac cong ty en sau nh Microsoft a tm
u moi cach e loi keo khach hang va anh bai Netscape. Bo T phap My a phai
can thiep va khi kien Microsoft ra toa trong vu The US v. Microsoft. Ngoai ra, neu
cac cong ty cung hp tac vi nhau e xay dng mot chuan m (ai cung s dung c,
khong b oc quyen) th nhanc coi ay la nhng bieu hien tch cc va nen ung ho.
Neu mot chuan a c xay dng qua vng chac roi (excess inertia), th e thay oi
no phai s dung phng phap tnh tien, ngha la thay oi tren nen tang cua chuan cu
ch khong the thay oi hoan toan c. Th du bo go tieng viet Unicode phai cong
nhan cac chuan cu nh Telext va VNI ch khong the s dung cach go khac hoan toan,
v ngi s dung se khong chu thay oi cach go cu cua mnh. My trong vu kien
Lotus v. Borland, chu quyen tac gia cua chuan cu (phan mem bang bieu Lotus 1-2-3)
a kien cong ty tung ra chuan mi Borland. Ly do la v Borland a sao chep cach the
hien chuan cu (cach sap xep bang bieu va cac cau lenh). Toa an a x cho Borland
thang kien,v chuan cu a c xay dng qua vng chac. Borland khong co cach nao
xam nhap vao th trng , ke ca khi san pham cua mnh tot hn, neu khong sao chep 1
phan cua chuan cu.
Van e tm iem bao ho can bang gia li ch cua ngi lao ong sang tao va li ch
cua ngi tieu dung van la van e c quan tam trong luat s hu tr tue nhieu
nc hien nay. Viec phai nghien cu hieu ng mang va cac hanh vi tap the se con
lam cho van e phc tap them. Muon giai quyet c van e can lu y en cuoc au
tr gia nhng ngi tieu dung (khach hang mi va khach hang cu), chien lc cua ho
va gia phai tra cho viec thay oi chien lc (switching costs).
Hanh vi "theo uoi"
Chung toi ket thuc chng nay bang cach tr lai th du au chng: ngi lao ong
can nhac xem nen lam viec au. Gia s co 100 ngi lao ong va 2 ngi s dung
lao ong: Cong ty va Nha may. Ca hai eu tra lng $10/gi. Ngi lao ong se phai
la chon xem nen lam viec ni nao t rui ro hn.

87

Gia s moi ngi lao ong eu co cam tng la theo xac suat th kha nang Cong ty an
toan hn Nha may la 51%. Tuy nhien theo cuoc ieu tra gan ay nhat th Nha may an
toan hn Cong ty. 99 ngi lao ong biet viec nay, ch 1 ngi khong biet, va gia thiet
la nhng ngi lao ong khong biet nhau nen khong lien lac vi nhau. Ngi khong
biet ve thong tin chon trc. Anh ta quyet nh da tren thong tin cu cua mnh (Cong
ty an toan hn) va chon lam viec cho Cong ty.
en lt ngi th hai chon. Anh ta biet thong tin la Nha may an toan hn, nhng
cha tin han v linh cam trc kia cua anh noi Cong ty an toan hn. Nay anh lai thay
ngi th nhat chon Cong ty, v the lai cang nghi ve thong tin cua mnh. Neu ngi
th nhat a chon nh vay, han la anh ta co thong tin rang Cong ty an toan hn. Nh
vay ngi th hai co hai thong tin: thong tin gan ay ma anh nghe (Nha may an toan
hn) va thong tin anh suy oan thong qua s la chon cua ngi th nhat (Cong ty an
toan hn). V hai thong tin nay tng ng nhau, nen anh se quay tr lai niem tin
ban au la Cong ty an toan hn va chon Cong ty. C the en ngi th 3, 4, 5 v.v.
Ngi nao cung bo qua thong tin rieng ma mnh c nghe va chay theo linh cam v
eu o ung vi nhng g ho quan sat. ieu nay cung ly giai tai sao tren thc te hoc
sinh lp 12 thch thi vao cac trng nh kinh te va luat, mac du kha nang that nghiep
khi hoc cac nganh nay cao hn cac nganh ky thuat. Ai cung thay cac trng nay
nhieu ngi thi va t o suy oan la cac nganh nay co tng lai. Ho khong biet
nhng ngi khac ang ky thi vao hai nganh nay cung theo uoi lan nhau ch khong
phai do mot thong tin co c s nao.
Mo hnh tren cho thay tac hai cua nhng hanh vi tap the, khong nhng oi vi li ch
tap the ma con oi vi nhng li ch ca nhan. No co the huy hoai ca nhng ngi nam
c thong tin rieng nhng khong giam tin vao ban than mnh. Nh vay, viec cung
cap thong tin cong khai va chnh xac se giup c ngi chi rat nhieu trong viec la
chon chien lc. Hang nam trong cong tac tuyen sinh vao ai hoc luat, chung ta ch
a ra con so co bao nhieu ngi d thi va t le choi. Th sinh cung ra quyet nh da
tren t le nay. Trong khi co nhng thong tin quan trong hn nhieu, nh trong 5 nam tr
lai ay nha trng a ao tao c bao nhieu c nhan chnh qui va tai chc, so kiem
c viec lam trong nam au tien sau khi ra trng la bao nhieu, nhu cau thc s cua
xa hoi la bao nhieu th khong co. e lam c ieu nay chung ta can co s ho tr cua
cac c quan thong ke ieu tra. Neu cac cong tac thong ke khong tien hanh c
chnh xac th mot so c che cung co the c thiet ke e giup ngi chi quyet nh
ung an hn. Th du ban tuyen sinh co the phat phieu ieu tra nhanh cho th sinh vi
cau hoi "tai sao ban thi vao trng nay?" Neu cong bo so lieu ieu tra ngay sau o,
cac th sinh se thay ngay la bao nhieu ngi thi vao trng v co thong tin hay thc s
muon thi, bao nhieu ngi ch "theo uoi" ban be.

88

Trong mot hoan canh khac (khi a co thong tin), viec ngan chan khong cho cong bo
nhng thong tin gay nhieu co the giup giam c van e "theo uoi." Trong th du
"chon viec lam" tren, neu ngi th hai khong biet ngi th nhat a chon lam viec
au th anh a chon lam viec Nha may. Sau khi hai ngi au tien chon th khong
can phai che dau thong tin na, v ngi th 3 gi ay co the t la chon tren nhng
gia thiet ngang nhau. Chien lc "cat uoi" nay a c th trng chng khoan hau
het cac nc tren the gii ap dung. Th du Viet nam, Uy ban Chng khoan qui nh
bien o gia tran va gia san cho moi phien giao dch (thay oi tng thi ky). Th du gia
co phieu REE khong the tang qua 5% hay xuong qua 5% trong mot phien, cho du co
ngi san sang ay gia len hay ban o co phieu cua mnh i. Th trng Chng
khoan New York khong an nh bien o, song "cat uoi" bang cach an nh khoi
lng giao dch. Neu ch so Dow Jones tut 250 iem toan bo th trng se ngng 1
gi. Neu tut tiep 150 iem se ngng tiep 2 gi na.
Ket luan
chng nay, chung ta a xet hai van e quan trong: cac hanh vi tap the va cac cuoc
au tr "chm." No s dung mot cach tong hp tat ca cac kien thc ma ta a hoc cac
chng trc. Neu nh cac chng trc ngi oc co cam giac la au tr luan phc
tap hoa cac van e n gian (th du ngi i xe - i bo), th chng nay ngi oc co
cam giac n gian hoa cac van e qua phc tap. That vay, hanh vi tap
the la mot trong nhng van e kho giai quyet nhat cua luat phap. No ung cham en
rat nhieu nganh: chong tham nhung, xay dng c ban, giao duc, kinh te, quoc phong
v.v. Rat may la ay au tr luan a cho ta cong cu hu hieu e giai thch nhieu van
e ma bnh thng ch co the phat bieu bang nhng chnh sach chung chung.
Tuy nhien khi ap dung cac mo hnh n gian vao cac van e phc tap, can lu y en
nhng han che cua no. Th du au tr "nghi pham" co the se dan en ket qua khac neu
nh no la mot cuoc au tr chm trong mot cuoc au tr ln hn. Chung ta cung thay
rang co the s dung phng phap can bang Bayes-Nash va au tr chm e tm hieu
va tai c cau cac cuoc au tr lien quan en hanh vi tap the va van e "nh va".
Ngoai ra, khi giai quyet cac cuoc au tr cung can lu y en cac van e mi nh hieu
ng mang va van e "theo uoi."

89

Chng 7: Thao luan trong trng hp bat cong tac

Mo hnh hoa viec phan chia li tc t thng mai

Nhng ai a hoc s qua mon kinh te ai cng at han con nh cach ly giai tai sao
buon ban lai co li cho ca hai ben. iem mau chot trong ly giai la hai ngi nh gia
cung mot tai san khac nhau, tuy quan niem moi ngi. Th du mot ngi nh gia
chiec but may cao hn chiec xe hi. Ngi kia nh gia ngc lai. Khi hai ngi tien
hanh buon ban trao oi vi nhau th ca hai cung co li, khong the noi rang ngi oi
chiec but may lay chiec xe hi la khon va ngi kia la dai.
Vai tro cua phap luat la lam sao bao am c c che trao oi buon ban tren tinh than
t do, t nguyen giao ket hp ong. Khi cac ben hoan toan bnh ang, ho se c t
do quyet nh mot giao dch theo hng co li nhat cho ho. Ngoai luat hp ong,
nhieu luat khac cung tham gia vao viec tao moi trng thuan li cho buon ban. Th du
luat doanh nghiep cung cap a v phap ly cho cac ben, luat pha san tao "s e doa
ang s" khien cac ben phai suy ngh lai trc khi tien hanh chien lc trai vi tinh
than thien ch.
Trong am phan thng mai, ngoai cac van e thuoc ve phap ly, cac van e thuoc ve
tnh cam, van hoa, ao c cung can c lu y ti. cac chng trc chung ta a
phan tch cac cuoc au tr gia nhng ngi cung mot nen van hoa nh nhau hay cung
hieu mot van e giong nhau. Trong chng nay chung ta se i sau vao viec phan tch
lam the nao e tao moi trng lanh manh cho giao lu thng mai gia nhng ngi
thuoc nen van hoa khac nhau.
Chung ta bat au bang cuoc thng lng trong cuoc au tr co ten la "am phan
Rubinstein": hai ngi chia nhau 1 trieu ong. Ngi th nhat chia tien, ngi th hai
co quyen t choi hay ong y. Neu ngi th hai t choi, ca hai se khong nhan c
g. Noi tom lai neu hai ngi khong thoa thuan c g th ca hai se khong nhan c
g ca. Luc nay hai ben lai phai thao luan lai t au. Cang thao luan lau th tien cang
mat gia.
e biet nen e ngh ngi th nhat nhng g, ngi th nhat phai tnh en chuyen
ngi th hai co chap nhan so tien ngi th nhat a nh mot loi thoat (exit option)
hay khong. Th du ngi th nhat chia cho ngi th hai 100.000 ong, con mnh cam
900.000 ong. Ngi th nhat co hai la chon: hoac la cam 100.000 ong (goi la loi

90

thoat), hoac la t choi. Neu t choi se co hai kha nang xay ra: mot la ngi th nhat
e ngh lai (th du lan nay se chia cho ngi th hai 20%, con mnh c 80%), hai la
ngi th nhat se bo i thng lng vi ngi khac "de bao" hn. Ngi th hai se
lam g?
Neu ngi th hai ch ngh en cai li trc mat va s rui ro, ho se chap nhan cam
100.000 ong (v ho chang mat g), va trong cuoc au tr thong thng (dien ra mot
lan) th o la chien lc toi u. Tuy nhien neu ngi th hai ngh en danh d, t ai,
tnh cam v.v. th ho se t choi. Ho tha khong c g ca con hn la b ngi th nhat
truc li tren s nhu nhc cua mnh, v luat qui nh: neu ca hai khong thoa thuan
c g th ngi th nhat cung se khong s dung c so tien ay. Nh vay ngi th
hai a xay dng c uy tn cua mnh ma ngi th nhat phai "ngan." Biet rang
ngi th nhat con co khi gap lai ngi th hai lan na (au tr lap lai), ngi th
nhat phai ne va noi chuyen t te vi ngi th hai (th du chia cho ngi th hai 50%
so tien 1 trieu). Hoac gia, neu hai ngi con tiep tuc hp tac vi nhau sau khi chia
tien (au tr th cap), ngi th hai cang co ly do e khang nh uy tn cua mnh. Neu
ngi th hai to ra nhu nhc cuoc au tr th nhat, ho se cang b ngi nh nhat
bat nat trong cac cuoc au tr th cap.
thc te Viet nam, trong cac hp ong au t nc ngoai hay lien doanh, cac cong ty
nc ngoai hay bat au am phan bang cach tra gia thap nh vay. Th du phia nc
ngoai gop 70% von, phia Viet nam ong gop 30% von bang quyen s dung at. Phia
Viet nam phai gop von ngay e co at xay nha may. Phia nc ngoai gop von theo
mot lch trnh "linh ong." Tranh chap xay ra giai quyet trong tai Singapore. Toa an
Viet nam ch lam mot viec la cong nhan phan quyet trong tai nc ngoai. Quyen
hanh nam het trong tay tong giam oc, pho tong giam oc hay hoi ong quan tr ch
mang tnh tng trng v.v. Tham ch co hp ong dau kh ma phia nc ngoai c
chia 70% san lng con Viet nam ch nhan 30% san lng. Chung ta khong nen hieu
la pha nc ngoai co thai o "bat nat" phia Viet nam. Chung ta cung khong nen mac
cam ma cho rang "mnh t tien, t kien thc, lac hau, ngi ta cho mnh bao nhieu hay
bay nhieu." Chien lc cua pha nc ngoai ch n gian la muon tham do hay th
trnh o phia Viet nam. o la ieu ma chung ta cung se lam neu chung ta vao a
v cua ho. Neu pha Viet nam nhu nhc, ho se hieu ra ban chat va se co chien lc
"bat nat" nhng lan sau. Neu phia Viet nam qua cng ran, t choi thang thng, ho
se ngh la phia Viet nam khong biet mnh biet ngi, va rut lui khong au t vao Viet
nam na. Ngc lai, neu phia Viet nam mem mong khon kheo, biet phan tch li hai
cho phia nc ngoai, phia nc ngoai se phai ngan. ong thi ho cung mng la hp
tac c vi mot oi tac co hieu biet va de lam viec tren tinh than thien ch ve lau
dai. Bai hoc cua Ho Chu Tch nam 1946 khi am phan vi Phap vao thay chan Tng
Gii Thach cho thay ke ca mot ngi chi yeu neu biet khon kheo van co the li
dung c the manh cua oi phng thanh the manh cua mnh.

91

Th du, khi gap phia nc ngoai ra nhng ieu kien nang ne cho phia Viet nam "ben
Viet nam phai " Th cach tot nhat e bat au am phan la thay ch "ben Viet nam"
bang "ben nc ngoai." Luc nay, neu phia nc ngoai phan oi, co ngha la t ho
cung thay ap dung mot ieu khoan nh vay la vo ly. Mot ngi chi chac chan khong
muon b phan cong bang chnh nhng on ho a tan cong oi phng. Bc tiep theo
ho se phai tm mot iem chien lc hp ly hn.
Quay tr lai cuoc au tr chia 1 trieu ong ban au. Gia s c moi ngay troi qua ma
hai ben khong at c thoa thuan, tong so tien se giam i = 10% (ngay th hai con
900.000 ong, ngay th 3 con 800.000 ong v.v.). Th du ngi th nhat e ngh chia
theo t le 90/10 va ngi th hai t choi, e ngh lai la 10/90. Luc nay ngi th nhat
hoac la tra li ngay, hoac la phai i 1 thi gian roi mi tra li. Cho du quyet nh
nh the nao i na th so tien ngay cang giam se khien ngi th nhat phai suy ngh
ky trc khi e ngh. Nh lai chng 5, ta co cong thc gia tr hien tai = gia tr tng
lai / (1 - n), trong o n la so ngay Nh vay neu ngi th nhat d oan rang cung
lam th ngi th hai se chu chia 300.000 ong vao ngay th hai (ngi th nhat c
700.000 ong), th gia tr hien tai cua 700.000 ong ngay mai se la: 700.000 /(1 - 0.1)
= 630.000. Nh vay ngi th nhat nen e ngh ngi th hai 350.000 ong ngay hom
au tien se co li hn cho ca hai ngi, v ngi th nhat se c (1 trieu - 350 ngan)
= 650.000 ong > 630.000 ong. Ve phia ngi th hai, ho cung biet la ngi th
nhat cung can tien, v vay ho cung se i en ket luan la se khong nhan tien neu nh
ngi th nhat khong tra cho ho t nhat la 700.000 ong. Luc nay ngi th nhat se
co ba la chon: hoac la bo i ngay va thng lng vi ngi khac, hoac la t choi va
e ngh lai gia mi ngay hom sau, hoac ong y vi gia ngi th hai a ra. V ho
phai at mnh la trng hp cua ngi ben kia nen neu biet oi phng chi "cng
ran", ho hoac la khong e ngh, hoac e ngh chia oi 50/50 ngay t ban au e to
long thien ch. Ket qua nay cung ung khi tien hanh khao sat tren thc te.
Dung cac cong thc tnh toan, chung ta co iem can bang th cap cua cuoc au tr nh
sau: ngi th nhat nen tra ngi th hai 1 trieu x / (1 + ) va bo i ngay neu ngi
th hai t choi. Ngi th hai ch chu chap nhan neu c e ngh t nhat la 1 trieu x
/ (1 + ), con neu khong th se e ngh lai cho ngi th nhat (1 trieu - s) x , trong
o s la so tien ma ngi th nhat e ngh ngi th hai. Ca hai cach tra li nay eu la
iem can bang Nash, v the hai ngi co the bat ong vi nhau khong cung, trong khi
ong tien ngay mot mat gia. Cach tot nhat la ngi th nhat e ngh ngi th hai
mot so tien u ln e ngi th hai cam thay la chap nhan ngay con hn la t choi va
gay sc ep oi vi ngi th nhat. Cuoi cung, hai ben se thoa thuan c vi nhau
trung iem. Gia s t le trt gia 1 trieu ong oi vi ngi th nhat (1) khac t le
tng ng oi vi ngi th hai (2), th neu thi gian gia hai lan e ngh ngan, th so
tien nen chia cho ngi th hai la:

92

ln 1
ln 1 + ln

Khi hai t le trt gia nay la tng ng nhau, chung ta se co ket qua tng ng
nh ket luan t trc (chia oi). Ket qua nay cho thay khi am phan gia cac ben co
van hoa, tap tuc khac nhau, hai ben can phai "tham do" nhau trc xem oi phng la
ngi de thuyet phuc hay ngi cng ran, hieu biet hay khong. Mot khi a tham do
c roi th nen a ra chien lc sao cho phu hp vi niem tin cua mnh ve oi
phng nhat (can bang Bayes). Neu oi phng la ngi cng ran va hieu biet th tot
nhat la nen a ra e ngh iem can bang Nash ngay t au (chia oi), con hn la b
t choi va "be mat" khi b oi phng lat tay y nh li dung. Hn na, khi oi phng
biet ngi chi khong co y nh thanh thc ngay t au, ho se mat long tin va rat kho
thuyet phuc c ho ve sau. Nh vay van e cua am phan Rubinstein la phai thay
c loi thoat cho ca hai ben ngay t au.
Quy nh cua phap luat tao ra loi thoat
Trong am phan Rubinstein, hai ben phai t tm cho mnh loi thoat (at c thoa
thuan), v neu khong at c th ca hai se khong c g. Trong kinh doanh va trong
cac hp ong au t, ngi ta co the thiet ke loi thoat bang cach quy nh: moi thoa
thuan gia cac ben c thong qua theo hnh thc am phan trong vong 30 ngay. Neu
qua 30 ngay ma cac ben khong at c thoa thuan th vu tranh chap se c a ra
giai quyet tai toa an.
Th du lien doanh A lam an thua lo. Ben nc ngoai co y nh mua lai phan gop von
cua ben Viet nam e chuyen thanh cong ty 100% von nc ngoai. Gia s t le gop
von cua ben Viet nam so vi ben nc ngoai la 30/70 trong mot lien doanh co von
phap nh tr gia 1 trieu USD. Ben nc ngoai se e ngh ben Viet nam ban lai cho
mnh vi gia 300.000 USD. Neu ben Viet nam khong ong y, th ben nc ngoai e
ngh ban lai phan hun cua mnh cho ben Viet nam vi gia 700.000 USD, ong thi rut
lai quyen s dung nhan hieu hang hoa cho san pham. Hai ben cang am phan cang
lau th cong ty cang thua lo, so tien 1trieu USD cang thu hep dan.
Luc nay ben Viet nam co hai giai phap la chon: mot la chap thuan giai phap cua
phia nc ngoai. Hai la tranh thu keo dai thi gian. Thi gian cang dai, cong ty cang
lo, ca hai ben cang thiet hai. Tuy nhien v ben nc ngoai gop 70% von nen thiet hai
cua ben nc ngoai se ln hn. Hn na do may moc nha xng a xay dng xong,
nen chuyen giai the lien doanh, thao d thiet b mang ve nc cung kho khan oi vi
ben nc ngoai. o la cha noi en viec khi doanh nghiep b giai the se phai thanh
toan cac khoan thue con thieu trc khi ben nc ngoai co the chuyen c ngoai te
ve nc. Nh vay, neu ben Viet nam khong chap nhan giai phap, cung khong chap

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nhan mua lai, th trong cuoc am phan ben nc ngoai ang t the chu ong se
chuyen sang the b ong.
Luc nay ben nc ngoai se co hai giai phap: hoac la chu e cho doanh nghiep chu lo
pha san va mnh se mat het, hoac la tang so tien tra cho ben Viet nam e mua lai
doanh nghiep. ay la mot dang am phan Rubinstein, trong o loi thoat cua cac ben
la ben Viet nam se phai ban lai phan von gop cua mnh cho ben nc ngoai. Tuy
nhien thi gian ng ve phia ben Viet nam (neu ho khong nong long muon ket thuc
sm cuoc am phan). Ch co ieu phia Viet nam se nhan thay rang mnh khong the
tiep tuc lien doanh vi phia nc ngoai c v thieu von va thieu kinh nghiem.
e tang c che khuyen khch phia nc ngoai e ngh mc gia mua lai phan gop von
cua phia Viet nam, phia Viet nam can lu y en mot yeu to - o la quyen s dung
at. V ngi co chu quyen s dung at la phia Viet nam, nen phia nc ngoai se san
sang bo them tien e cong ty lien doanh co ten trong giay chng nhan quyen s dung
at. Cong ty se khong the hoat ong khi phia Viet nam ra khoi lien doanh ma khong
chuyen nhng lai ten trong giay chng nhan quyen s dung at. Nh vay chung ta
thay cac quy nh ve luat at ai hay luat au t nc ngoai rat co tac dung trong viec
giup ben Viet nam tm c loi thoat trong cac cuoc au tr Rubinstein.
Ket hp cac yeu to ke tren, ben nc ngoai se tang tien tra cho ben Viet nam. Gia s
ben nc ngoai tin rang sau khi cong ty chuyen thanh 100% von nc ngoai, ho se
lam an co lai (v giai oan khau hao a het, th trng on nh va quan ly nhanh
chong hn) . Nh vay ho se phai la chon gia hai c hoi: hoac la tra ngay cho phia
Viet nam 500.000 USD, hoac la tiep tuc am phan cho ti khi phia Viet nam chap
nhan gia 300.000 USD, trong khi cong ty tiep tuc lam an thua lo va thi iem thu hoi
von keo dai them. Co kha nang ho se chap nhan tra 500.000 USD neu phia Viet nam
yeu cau. Cac au tr nh vay khong co g khong cong bang, cung khong phai la khong
khoa hoc. Van e la cho hai ben s dung het cac thong tin cua oi phng ve gia tr
ong tien hien tai va tng lai, d an kinh doanh, li the cua tai san kinh doanh.
Mac ca va sap xep lai doanh nghiep
Van e thoa thuan Rubinstein va loi thoat tren a the hien c rang cac d kien
ve loi thoat hay kha nang la chon se anh hng rat nhieu en ken cuc am phan.
Mot th du tiep theo la luat pha san. Gia s mot cong ty phai the chap tai san cua
mnh e lay tien vay san xuat kinh doanh. Khi viec san xuat ri vao kho khan va
khong tra c n. Cong ty co hai cach giai quyet. Mot la tuyen bo pha san. Hai la
thng thao lai vi chu n va sap xep lai doanh nghiep. oi vi chu n, lay tai san
the chap ban i khong han a la bien phap tot nhat e giai quyet n, neu khoan n

94

ln hn ca gia tr con lai cua doanh nghiep. Ngoai ra chi ph ban tai san, kien tung
thu hoi n cung ln nen viec yeu cau tra n ngay cha han a la giai phap toi u.
Viec mot cong ty tuyen bo pha san se lamot dp e cac chu n hop ban tm giai phap
cho cong ty. Thong thng khi cong ty tuyen bo pha san, toa an se ra tuyen bo ngng
moi viec tra n, cac khoan n cha en han cung c coi la en han (automatic
stay). Khi cong ty ngng tra n, moi thoa thuan ngam e tra n cho mot so chu n
trc coi nh khong thc hien c. Luc nay moi chu n khong con loi thoat nao
khac ngoai viec tap trung tm ke hoach cu van cong ty. Trong trng hp cac chu n
khong at c thoa thuan, cong ty se b thanh ly, va luc o so tien nhan c cua cac
chu n con thap hn. V the theo nguyen tac am phan Rubinstein, cac chu n se
phai tm chien lc toi u v quyen li chung cua tng chu n.
My con co quy nh rang neu chu n nao khong muon tham gia hoi ngh chu n va
khong muon ban ke hoach cu van cong ty, co the xin ra va se nhan c so tien
tng ng vi gia tr cua cong ty trong trng hp pha san (new value exception).
Tat nhien gia tr cua cong ty khi pha san (liquidated asset) se thap hn rat nhieu gia
tr cong ty ang hoat ong (on-going concern). Gia tr nay co the bang khong neu
cong ty khong u tien tra cac khoan n am bao. Chnh v the viec mot chu n tach
ra khoi hoi ngh chu n se ch lam cho cac chu n con lai co kha nang de at c
thoa thuan ve cong ty ang hoat ong.
Ket luan
chng nay, chung ta xet en vai tro cua phap luat trong viec tao ieu kien cho cac
ben tien ti thoa thuan can thiet the can bang Nash (co li va an toan cho ca hai
ben). Thoa thuan Rubinstein cho chung ta thay rang viec cac ben co at c chien
lc toi u hay khong con tuy thuoc vao sc ep t ben ngoai. Trong th du ve viec
ben nc ngoai mua lai phan gop von cua cong ty Viet nam, neu luat Viet nam khong
quy nh rang ben Viet nam ng ten trong quyen s dung at, vi t cach la co ong
thieu so ben Viet nam rat kho bao ve quyen li cua mnh. Tat nhien neu co li the
ma khong biet s dung th la mot ieu ang tiec. V vay ngi chi khi vao mot cuoc
au tr can tnh en moi nhan to - thi gian, khong gian, quy nh cua phap luat v.v.
th chien lc toi u cua ho mi co the mang lai li ch toi a trong am phan. Sau
cung, khi am phan, can anh gia ung oi thu: khong nen thay oi thu gay sc ep
ma ngh rang ho manh hn mnh, cung khong nen voi vang chong tra khi thay oi thu
gay sc ep. Cach tot nhat la bat oi thu phai t chng minh c rang e ngh cua ho
a ra la co li cho ca hai ben.

95

Chng 8: Thao luan va thong tin

Cac mo hnh c ban cua to tung
Trong chng nay, chung ta xet anh hng cua phap luat oi vi qua trnh thao luan
cua ngi chi (dynamics of bargaining) khi mot ngi co thong tin rieng va ngi kia
khong co. Viec xem xet xem pham vi can bang chung hay rieng cho ta biet khong
nhng qua trnh thao luan a en hoi ket thuc hay cha, ma con cho ta biet cac ben co
c hoi at c thoa thuan hay khong. Trong chng nay, chung ta xay dng mo hnh
da tren cac quy nh to tung dan s.
To tung dan s bat au bang viec khi kien. Th du mot ngi gay thiet hai cho ngi
khac, th ngi b thiet hai se la nguyen n va ngi gay thiet hai se la b n trong
vu kien. Trong n khi kien, nguyen n ghi ngan gon ly do mnh khi kien va cac
bang chng can thiet. Sau khi thu ly, toa an se thong bao cho b n, va b n co
quyen tra li noi dung n kien, va a ra cac bang chng bao ve quyen li cua mnh.
Giai oan tiep theo la hoa giai. Luc nay toa an se tien hanh lay li khai cua cac ben.
cac nc theo he thong luat Anh-My con co giai oan yeu cau cung cap chng c
(discovery). Moi ben yeu cau ben kia cung cap cho mnh cac bang chng ve vu kien.
cac nc theo he thong luat luc ia, toa an se yeu cau cac ben cung cap chng c.
V luat s c quyen oc ho s vu an, nen moi ben cung nam nhng chng c ma
ben kia a ra. Sau khi co chng c, toa an thuyet phuc cac ben hoa giai. cac nc
theo he thong luat Anh - My khong co hoa giai, song cung co giai oan tong ket vu an
(summary judgement), theo o neu mot ben t nhan la mnh sai th co the thoa thuan
giai quyet vu an ngay khong can ra xet x.
Neu hoa giai khong thanh cac ben se a vu an ra xet x. cac nc theo he thong
luat Anh-My tham phan se hoi cac cau hoi ve luat, con boi tham se hoi cac cau hoi
ve s viec. Boi tham se quyet nh xem b n co chu trach nhiem hay khong, sau o
tham phan se quyet nh mc boi thng thiet hai la bao nhieu. cac nc theo he
thong luat luc a hoi ong xet x se quyet nh chung moi van e bang bieu quyet a
so. Cac ben sau o co the khang cao. cac nc theo he thong luat Anh-My noi
dung khang cao ch han che cau hoi toa cap di co ap dung ung phap luat hay cac
bang chng a a co logic vi ket luan hay khong. cac nc theo he thong luat luc
a cac ben van co quyen a ra bang chng mi giai oan phuc tham.

96

Sau khi co ban an, ngi b thiet hai se yeu cau c quan nha nc thi hanh ban an.
Viet nam co c quan thi hanh an. cac nc khac khong can c quan nay, ban an sau
cung a tuyen ng nhien co hieu lc va co the trnh canh sat e cng che buoc
ngi phai thi hanh an thi hanh.
My, moi ben t tra chi ph luat s va chi ph thi hanh an (American rule). cac
nc khac, th du Anh, ben thua kien se phai tra moi chi ph (English rule). V moi
ben t tra chi ph luat s, nen e tiet kiem chi ph My cac ben rat muon thoa thuan
cham dt vu an trc khi a ra toa (khoang 80% cac vu tranh chap) Ly do e cac
ben a nhau ra toa la e tm them thong tin (trong giai oan discovery). Trong cac
phan tiep theo, chung ta se so sanh he thong luat Anh-My va anh hng cua no oi
vi qua trnh am phan cua cac ben.
Trc tien la cau hoi tai sao viec hoa giai ton chi ph hn a vu an ra xet x ma
van co nhng vu an hoa giai khong thanh. Th du hai ben tranh cai vi nhau cang lau
th chi ph luat s cang tang, so tien ma ben b thiet hai c hng se cang giam
(giong nh thoa thuan Rubinstein). Gia s mot ngi b thiet hai $100,000, tuy nhien
cac ben hien tranh cai xem b n co chu trach nhiem boi thng khong. Neu kha
nang thang kien cua nguyen n trc toa la 75%, nh vay so tien ma nguyen n
muon nhan se trong khoang t $65,000 en $85,000 ( = $75,000 $10,000 tien chi
ph luat s). Gia s nguyen n ch chap nhan vi gia $80,000 (v ngh rang mnh
90% kha nang thang kien) va b n ch chap nhan vi gia $70,000 (v cho rang
nguyen n ch co 60% kha nang thang kien). Ca hai khong thong nhat c va v
the a a nhau ra toa. Nh vay viec cac ben anh gia khac nhau ve ket qua vu an
a khien vu an khong hoa giai c.
Mot ly do khac ma cac ben khong hoa giai c la v mot ben khong co thong tin va
ben kia co thong tin. Th du b n thay kha nang thang kien cua ngi n la 60%
khong phai v cam nhan, ma v a tm hieu t trc cach x cua toa an ve nhng vu
tng t, ve nhng iem manh cua mnh va iem yeu cua oi phng v.v. Trong
trng hp nay luat phap nen tm cach e ben co thong tin chia xe thong tin cho ben
khong co, e ben kia co the de chap nhan hoa giai hn. Chnh v vay ma My co
giai oan yeu cau cung cap chng c, con Viet nam luat s c phep oc ho s vu
an va yeu cau oi phng cung cap chng c. Tuy vay, viec cung cap thong tin cung
co mat han che cua no: nhng thong tin bat li cho oi phng thong thng c de
dang cung cap e thuyet phuc ho ong y nhng ieu kien ma mnh a ra. Ngc lai,
cac thong tin co li cho oi phng co the b dau kn hay gay nhieu. e giup ben
khong co thong tin, trong mot so vu an ac thu (nh cac vu xam pham quyen s hu
tr tue) ben b thiet hai co quyen yeu cau ben gay thiet hai cung cap cho mnh nhng
chng c lien quan en hanh vi xam pham.

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oi vi cac vu kien tai Anh hay mot so nc Chau Au luc ia, ben thua kien phai
chu moi chi ph, ke ca ph luat s cua ben thang kien. Nh vay mc o rui ro do thua
kien cang ln, v moi ben khong d tru het c chi ph luat s cua ben kia la bao
nhieu. Khi nay kha nang chap nhan hoa giai se cang ln. Ngoai ra con phai tnh en
kha nang thuyet phuc cua luat s moi ben (theo thuat ng kinh te goi la "cheap talk").
Mo hnh hoa cac phien toa xet x ve boi thng thiet hai
Trong phan nay chung ta se xem xet anh hng cua viec phan chia xet x thanh
nhieu giai oan cac nc theo he thong luat Anh-My. Th du trong mot vu kien ve
boi thng thiet hai ngoai hp ong, cac ben co the thoa thuan ve viec ai chu trach
nhiem va tranh chap ve viec mc boi thng la bao nhieu hoac ngc lai. Gia thiet
nguyen n cho rang xac suat thang kien cua mnh la 90% va toa an se tuyen cho
mnh c quyen oi $110,000. Ngc lai b n cho rang xac suat thua kien cua
mnh ch khoang 80% va toa an ch bat mnh boi thng toi a la $100,000. Neu hai
ben hoa giai gia chng cuoc xet x th moi ben se ton $5,000 ph luat s. Neu ca hai
i en cuoi vu kien th moi ben se ton $10,000.
Neu khong chia vu x ra thanh nhieu giai oan nh Anh - My, cac ben se co xu
hng hoac la hoa giai ngay va khong a vu an ra xet x, hoac la se a vu an ra
xet x va se theo uoi ti cung. Theo xac suat th so tien ma nguyen n hy vong
nhan c la 90% x 110,000 - 10,000 = $89,000, thap hn so tien ma b n ngh
mnh co the mat la 80% x 100,000 + 10,000 = $90,000. Nh vay nguyen n se de
dang chap nhan hoa giai ngay.
Neu chia vu x thanh hai giai oan: xac nh ai chu trach nhiem va chu trach nhiem
boi thng thiet hai la bao nhieu, th chi ph se tnh khac. Luc nay au giai oan 1
ma cac ben hoa giai ngay th nguyen n hy vong nhan c 90% x (110,000 - 5,000)
- 5,000 = $89,500, nhieu hn so tien b n ngh mnh co the mat 80% x (100,000 +
5,000) + 5,000 = $89,000. Nh vay neu b n khong thay oi y kien th nguyen n
se kien. Neu sau giai oan 1 ma biet c rang b n phai chu trach nhiem th
nguyen n se nhan c toi a la $110,000 - $5,000 (tien tra cho luat s giai oan 1)
= $105,000. B n ngh mnh se phai chi toi a la $100,000 + $5,000 (tien se tra cho
luat s giai oan 2) = $105,000. Nh vay hai ben se i en thoa thuan. B n van
ton $105,000, nhng tat ca tra cho nguyen n, thay v $5,000 trong so o phai tra cho
luat s. Nh vay neu vu x b chia thanh nhieu giai oan th kha nang cac ben se
theo uoi vu kien cho en khi gan nga ngu se cao hn. Xet ve mat au tr, viec phan
chia vu kien thanh nhieu giai oan tao ra nhieu iem can bang Nash hn cho cac
ben,va v vay kha nang at c hoa giai se nhieu hn.

98

 My con co nhng vu kien tap the (class action), trong o mot nhom ngi kien mot
cong ty. Th du hang tram nghn ngi bang California a kien cong ty Microsoft
nam 2002 ve viec thc hien hanh vi oc quyen ban gia qua cao. Microsoft a chap
nhan hoa giai vi gia $1,1 t. Trong cac vu kien tap the, b n thng de chap nhan
hoa giai hn, bi le rat kho xac nh trong so cac nguyen n, ngi nao muon theo
uoi vu kien, ngi nao muon hoa giai nhanh chong. Thong thng trong vu kien tap
the nhng ngi hoa nha rat muon theo nhng ngi hang hai (tam ly "nh va") va v
vay kho chap nhan hoa giai chng nao nhng ngi hang hai con muon theo uoi vu
kien. V sc ep chenh lech gia nguyen n va b n trong nhng vu kien dang nay
nen cac nc khac khong cho phep tien hanh cac vu kien tap the.
Ngoai ra xet ve tam ly th ngi ta de i en nhng bo neu ng trc mot thiet hai
ln ($10,000 ph luat s), hn la ng trc nhieu thiet hai nho (2 x $5,000) mac du
tong so la nh nhau. Chnh v vay ma moi ngi thch mua nha tra gop mac du co u
tien tra nguyen can nha, hay thch mua hang khi co t giam gia (mac du la nhng
mat hang mnh khong can mua). Cac cong trnh c giai Nobel nam 2002 cua
Kahneman va Tversky cho thay ngi ta thong thng tiec phai chi ra 10,000 ong
hn la c hoi kiem c 10,000 ong. Th du mot ngi lam mat 1 chiec ve xem
phim. Anh ta tiec en o khong i xem phim na mac du thc long muon i xem bo
phim o. That ra du anh ta co i xem hay khong th anh cung khong kiem lai c
chiec ve o, va neu con tien th nen mua mot chiec ve khac. oi vi phap luat cung
vay. Thong thng e thu hut au t nc ngoai, oi khi u ai ve thue khong hieu
qua bang viec chu trach nhiem giai phong mat bang xay dng nha may hay giam bt
cac phien ha khong ve thu tuc hanh chnh cho nha au t. Tng t, khi to chc au
thau, nha mi thau thng bat cac ben au thau chi nhng khoan tien ln e mua bo
ho s mi thau. Muc ch la e cac cong ty au thau cam ket theo uoi vu au thau
sau khi a mat mot khoan tien ln.
Thong tin va thanh kien trong viec chon la
Thong thng cac quy nh phap luat c hnh thanh t viec tong ket cac vu kien a
c xay ra trong thc te, hay rut kinh nghiem t cac qui nh bat thanh van khac. e
cong viec rut kinh nghiem nay c hieu qua, cac nha lap phap phai la chon trong
cac vu viec, cai nao la ien hnh, cai nao la vun vat. Neu khong tm c cac van e
ien hnh, cac van ban phap luat de ri vao viec "sai mot li i mot dam". Y tng ban
hanh van ban khong ien hnh, cac van ban phia di lai "hng dan" noi dung xa ri
muc ch ban au cua van ban. ieu nay gay khong t kho khan cho ngi dan khi ho
khong tm c chien lc can bang trong cac cuoc au tr b cac van ban phap luat
lam cho chenh lech. Van e nay trong au tr goi la s la chon thien v (selection
bias).

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Viec phan ln cac vu an a c giai quyet thong qua thu tuc hoa giai khien cho viec
la chon thien v lai co kha nang cang phat trien. V cac b n biet mnh thua a hoa
giai t trc, nen cac ban an c cong bo thng the hien nhng vu b n co c s
e tin rang mnh se thang, thong thng la v nguyen n khong co u bang chng.
Neu cac nha lap phap coi nhng vu kien nay la nhng vu kien ien hnh ve boi
thng thiet hai ngoai hp ong th se dan en viec ban hanh nhng ieu luat thien v
cho b n. ieu nay xay ra v ket qua cua vu an c coi trong hn ly do thc dan
en ket qua o.
Nh vay loai vu an c a ra xet x tuy thuoc vao nhng ly do khien cho vu an
khong hoa giai c (so tien boi thng ma mot ben chap nhan qua thap, b n qua
cng ran v.v.). V vay cac bao cao kinh nghiem xet x cua cac toa an can phai co ca
nhng thong ke ve nhng vu viec a hoa giai thanh, cac dang ien hnh hoa giai
thanh va ly do hoa giai thanh. Da tren cac thong tin nay cac nha lap phap mi co
the tong ket va ban hanh van ban phap luat mot cach chnh xac.
Trao oi thong tin va kiem chng thong tin
phan trc chung ta a nhac s qua van e cung cap va trao oi thong tin
(discovery) cac nc theo luat to tung dan s Anh - My. Mot khiem khuyet cua
viec trao o thong tin la viec ben b oi hoi thong tin co the ch cong bo cac thong tin
co li ma che dau cac thong tin bat li cho mnh. Ngoai ra, mot so thong tin khong
kiem chng c. Th du mot ngi noi ho nhan chng xac nhan rang ho khong co
loi. Tuy nhien nhan chng nay se khai g trc toa th phai en luc xet hoi mi
biet c.
Gia thiet trong mot vu kien boi thng thiet hai ngoai hp ong, ben gay thiet hai se
thang tr khi ben b thiet hai nam c nhng thong tin ma ch co mnh ben gay thiet
hai biet. Ben b thiet hai yeu cau ben gay thiet hai cung cap cac thong tin nay. Ben
gay thiet hai phai cung cap. Mac du cac thong tin cung cap la bat li, song con co
nhng thong tin bat li hn cha c cung cap. Bang cach cung cap mot so thong tin
bat li, ben gay thiet hai a lam hai long ben b thiet hai, trong khi kha nang ben b
thiet hai thang kien van t (v cha u thong tin). Nh vay chien lc "cung cap mot
t thong tin bat li" tot hn cho ben gay thiet hai so vi chien lc im lang. V neu im
lang th ben b thiet hai cang co c s e tin rang ben gay thiet hai muon che dau
thong tin bat li va cang hoi nhieu cau hoi hoc bua hn cho ben gay thiet hai.
oi vi ben b thiet hai, yeu cau b n cung cap thong tin cung ton kem cho ho, v
phai thue luat s e ieu tra va kiem chng thong tin. V the sau khi thay ben gay
thiet hai to ve cong tac va co y muon hoa giai, ben b thiet hai co the se san sang
chap nhan hoa giai hn.

100

Sau cung , khi nhieu ngi (b n) cung gay thiet hai cho mot ngi (nguyen n),
ho co the co nhng hanh vi tap the (hay s mac phai nhng hanh vi tap the) ma lam
viec cung cap thong tin kho khan hn. Th du bon em nho a bong lam v ca knh
cua mot gia nh. Chu nha hoi: ai lam v knh? Em trc tiep lam v knh (loi ln) se
ch i cac em khac nhan loi trc (loi nho) roi hua vao ("hanh vi tap the") e chu
nha co cam giac la tat ca cac em eu co loi nh nhau, phai boi thng. Cac em co
loi nho thay trc ieu nay nen khong chu nhan loi e ngi khac co hanh vi tap the.
Nh vay chu nha se phai ieu tra. Qua trnh nay ton kem cho ca hai ben, cuoi cung la
cac em co loi nho mat thi gian va cong sc hn ca trng hp nhan loi ngay t au.
Nh vay qua trnh yeu cau cung cap trong trng hp nhieu ngi gay ra thiet hai
cha chac a thuc ay cac ben tien en thoa thuan nhanh hn. e giai quyet van e
nay, luat phap co the quy nh ben gay thiet hai khong nhng phai tra li moi cau hoi
cua ben b thiet hai, ma phai cung cap tat ca nhng thong tin ma mnh biet xung
quanh thiet hai xay ra - cho du cac thong tin nay la co li hay co hai. Cac quy nh
nay se co hieu qua neu phap luat thiet lap c cac cong cu kiem chng thong tin va
che tai oi vi ngi khong chu cong bo thong tin. o la ieu ma cac quy nh ve to
tung lien quan en xam pham quyen s hu tr tue hien nay yeu cau (ieu 11-12
Chng II cua Hiep nh Thng Mai Viet-My, ieu 43-53 Thoa c TRIPs).
Ket luan
Trong chng nay chung ta xem xet anh hng cua thong tin en viec hnh thanh thoa
thuan cua cac ben va vai tro cua phap luat trong viec thuc ay ho tr cac ben thoa
thuan. ay la mot van e ln, va chung toi ch e cap en mot khia canh nho (to tung
dan s). ay chung ta thay do thong tin gia cac ben khong tng ng nhau,
nhng ngi t kha nang b ganh trach nhiem nhat co the la ngi phai ton chi ph
nhieu nhat trong vu kien. Cac van e nh vay khong ch nay sinh trong to tung dan
s. No co the la mo hnh thch hp e phan tch cac van e ve thong tin trong viec
xap sep c cau lai doanh nghiep, lao ong hay thng mai.

101

Ket luan - thong tin va cac han che cua luat

Vi t cach la mot cong cu, au tr luan, cung nh cac cong cu kinh te hoc khac,
khong u manh e co the cho chung ta thay anh hng chnh xac cua cac loai hnh
van ban phap luat khac nhau. Tuy nhien, o khong phai la nhng cong cu vo ch, v
cac mo hnh au tr luan cho chung ta nhng khai niem au tien e hieu cac ong lc
trong xa hoi va s tng tac cua chung tren thc te khi cac ben co lien quan x s
theo chien lc.
Chung ta a thay rang cac van ban phap luat anh hng en en hanh vi cac ben cho
du ho kho nhan thay. Trong nhieu trng hp, phap luat anh hng en cac ben mac
du no ieu chnh nhng trng hp ma cac ben khong bao gi gap phai, cho du luat
phap co quy nh hay khong. Bang cach a cac quy nh vao cac gia nh phat sinh
t nhng hanh vi an xen lan nhau, luat phap co the hng cac ben t cach x s nay
sang cach x s khac. Cac mo hnh ma chung ta va xem xet giai thch cac ong lc
ngam dan en cac ket qua khi cac ben ap dung cac chien lc tng tac lan nhau.
Trong moi mo hnh, chung toi eu so sanh trng hp khong co s tac ong cua phap
luat vi trng hp co s tac ong cua phap luat. T o rut ra ket luan ve hieu qua
cua s tac ong nay. Trong nhieu trng hp phap luat co tac ong tch cc. Tuy
nhien oi khi phap luat lai co tac ong tieu cc, th du khien cac ben de phan biet oi
x, gay nhieu thong tin hay can tr cac ben i en thoa thuan co li cho ca hai ben.
mot so trng hp, tac ong cua phap luat khong tch cc ma cung khong tieu cc.
No la nhng tac ong vo ch, v no ieu chnh nhng trng hp khong bao gi xay ra
gia nhng ngi co ly tr. Thong qua hieu biet ve au tr luan, chung ta co the dung
c cau tac ong bang phap luat mot cach co hieu qua hn: phat huy nhng mat tch
cc, han che nhng mat tieu cc hay vo ch.
Chu e xuyen suot trong ca quyen sach la cach tm kiem, kiem chng va s dung
thong tin, ung nh cau noi cua Ton T: "biet mnh biet ngi, tram tran tram thang."
Luat phap ch co the c thc thi neu c quan thc thi nam c nhng thong tin can
thiet e thc thi. Khi phan tch hanh vi cua nhng ngi chi trong o mot hay hai
ben co thong tin va cac ben con lai khong co, chung ta phai het sc can than khi anh
gia tnh chat cua thong tin chung ta ang xem xet. Thc vay, chon loc cac thong tin
khac nhau va tm hieu cach lam cho quy nh cua phap luat anh hng en cac thong
tin nay la mot trong nhng ac iem cua ap dung au tr luan vao phan tch phap luat.
Cac anh gia ma chung toi va trnh bay hy vong se cung cap cho cac ban khung sn
e tm hieu cac quy nh cua phap luat co s dung hay anh hng en thong tin. Cac
quy nh nay rat nhieu, t mau n t ke khai, en cac quy nh ve tranh tung, thng
mai, au t, lao ong, xap sep to chc can bo.

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Khi phan tch anh hng cua phap luat, can at chung trong mot hoan canh nhat nh.
Muc ch cua viec s dung cac cong cu kinh te hoc vao phan tch luat la e xay dng
cac mo hnh the hien cac ong lc ben trong cua mot van e. ay la ieu kho thc
hien khi cac moi quan he xa hoi rat phong phu phc tap. Thong thng chung ta
khong the nhan ra logic cua tng s tng tac rieng re. Trong nhieu trng hp cac
ben tham gia vao cac cuoc au tr th cap, au tr lap lai hay au tr chm. Khi nay,
cac hanh vi khong the xay ra trong cac cuoc au tr thong thng tr nen kha thi, lam
m rong cac trng hp can phai xem xet va cac van e can phai giai quyet. Khi
mot cuoc au tr nho c nhan chm trong mot cuoc au tr ln, cac quy nh phap
luat thoat nhn co ve phu hp cho cac cuoc au tr n gian tr nen loi thi, vo ch hay
tham ch1 co hai khi xet en cac cuoc au tr phc tap. Trong quyen sach nay chung
ta a thay nhieu th du nh vay.
Cac quy nh cua phap luat thng co nhiem vu bao ve quyen li xa hoi va chong cac
hanh vi (lam dung) tap the, ngoai ra con tao ra khung phap ly e cac ben co the thao
luan, buon ban vi nhau. e tm hieu hieu qua cua cac quy nh, chung ta can hieu c
che khuyen khch hay han che lam dung, va c che canh tranh hay hp tac, thoa than
gia nhng ngi chi. au tr luan giup chung ta hieu cac c che cho-nhan gia cac
ben mot cach tot hn.
Khi chung ta quan tam en vai tro cua cac quy nh cho ngi chi c t do giao
ket thoa thuan, chung ta cung nen e y en anh hng cua cac quy nh o en hanh
vi cua ngi chi tren thc te. Nh Coase noi, khi chi ph giao dch thap va cac ben
c t do canh tranh, van e phan tch chien lc co the khong can thiet va vai tro
cua phap luat co the khong ang ke. Tuy nhien cac trng hp nh vay rat t xay ra.
Trong cac trng hp con lai, chien lc cua cac ben quyet nh ket qua, va phap luat
anh hng en chien lc. Neu chung ta quan tam en ket qua, chung ta khong the
coi thng phan tch chien lc va vai tro cua phap luat trong o. Chung toi hy vong
rang cach chung toi tiep can cac cuoc au tr se co ch cho ca cac luat s lan cac nha
kinh te hoc.
Trc tien, au tr luan cho phep chung ta so sanh nhieu quy nh khac nhau. Th du,
cac qui nh ve trach nhiem boi thng do loi, khong do loi, lien i, tuy eu la trach
nhiem boi thng thiet hai ngoai hp ong, co anh hng en chien lc cua ngi
chi trong cuoc au tr "i xe-i bo" hoan toan khac nhau. V cac quy nh khac nhau
anh hng en mc o quan tam khac nhau cua ngi chi oi vi quyen li cua oi
phng, ta co the dung cac quy nh e tao c che khuyen khch/e doa phu hp vi
li ch cua xa hoi. Noi theo thuat ng kinh te, cac c che nh vay la co hieu qua.

103

 chng 1, chung ta a thay neu cac ben nam thong tin nh nhau, vai tro cua phap
luat oi vi chien lc cua ho la rat ln. Nh vay, phap luat co the tac ong cac ben
e cho ra ket qua toi u cua xa hoi neu nh moi ben co the chon chien lc toi u can
bang vi chien lc toi u cua cac ben con lai (iem can bang Nash).
Tuy nhien au tr luan khong ch dng nhng mo hnh n gian, bi le cac mo hnh
nay da tren mot gia thiet khong thc te ve thong tin. Thach thc ln nhat oi vi
nhng ngi muon xay dng phap luat e ieu khien chien lc cua ca nhan vao muc
ch tap the la van e thong tin khong ay u hay khong can oi gia cac ngi chi.
Trong mot so trng hp, cac c quan thc thi phap luat khong nam c thong tin
hay khong kiem chng c thong tin mnh co. Trong mot so trng hp khac, mot so
ngi chi co nhieu thong tin hn nhng ngi chi khac, nhng ho khong co cach
hay khong muon chi se thong tin. Cach van dung phap luat e tm c iem can
bang Nash hay Bayes trong trng hp nay giong nh xap sep mot bc tranh (puzzle)
trong o nhieu mau b thieu hay nam trong tay nhng ngi khong muon cung cap
chung.
Cuoc phan tch cua chung ta i tiep bang cach phan chia thong tin ra thanh thong tin
chung va thong tin rieng, thong tin kiem chng c (nh au moi) va thong tin quan
sat c nhng khong kiem chng c. Sau o chung ta tm cach e ngi co thong
tin t nguyen cung cap thong tin (phat tn hieu), v ieu nay co li cho ho. Tuy nhien
khi mot ngi co y nh s dung thong tin e gay nhieu hay gay thiet hai cho ngi
khac th chung ta phai thiet ke mot c che ran e oi vi hanh vi ra ngoai pham vi can
bang (li e doa ang s). oi vi nhng thong tin kiem chng c, viec dung au
moi e lan thong tin cung u e phat huy hieu qua, nh vay cac ho tr cua phap luat
(th du yeu cau bat buoc cong bo thong tin) la khong can thiet va oi khi co hai. au
tr luan cho phep chung ta anh gia xem nhng gia thiet cua phap luat ve nhng g
cac ben biet hay c quan thc thi biet co giong nh trong thc te hay khong.
Cac quy nh cua phap luat ong vai tro quan trong v no anh hng en hanh vi cua
cac chu the trong quan he xa hoi. e tm hieu cac anh hng, chung ta can co cong
cu e d oan hanh vi. au tr luan tiep can van e nay da tren nguyen ly la cho du
ngi ta i en quyet nh nh the nao th hanh vi cua ho cung nhat quan vi mot vai
nguyen tac c ban. Mot trong nhng nguyen tac nay la y tng ve toi u hoa. Ngi
chi se chon mot hanh vi neu hanh vi o khien ho co li hn so vi bat ky hanh vi
nao khac. Nguyen tac th hai la khai niem can bang Nash: neu moi tng tac gia
nhng ngi chi cho ra ket qua d oan c , th ket qua se la cai ma khong ai co
the chon giai phap toi u hn, trong ieu kien co hanh vi tng tac cua oi phng.
au tr luan khong phai la tuyet oi ung. No ch d oan nhng chien lc chnh
trong mot moi quan he hay ch canh bao trc nhng rui ro co the xay ra. Chnh bi

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v nhng d oan ve rui ro o co the sai, nen no cung co kha nang ung va v vay co
the kiem chng c. Cac d oan nay giup chung ta tra li nhng cau hoi quan
trong cho nhng ai quan tam en phap luat. Khi chung ta bat au nghien cu phap
luat bang au tr luan, chung ta can nh rang cac mo hnh cua au tr can c chon
loc can than cung nh s dung cac quy nh phap luat nh cong cu. S chon loc t
cac mo hnh nay ch co the c tien hanh neu chung ta th ap dung chung. Hieu
phap luat va hieu au tr luan la hai thach thc song hanh vi nhau.

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nh ngha

Bang phan tch (bimatrix): la mo hnh ma tran e phan tch moi lien quan gia chien
lc va ket qua cua hai ngi chi khac nhau trong mot cuoc au tr thong thng.
moi o cua bang phan tch co hai con so trong ngoac n the hien ket qua cua hai
ngi chi. Con so th nhat la ket qua cua ngi chi hang ngang va con so th hai la
ket qua cua ngi chi hang doc.
Bc i, iem hay not (node): la mot iem quan trong trong mot cuoc au tr m
rong. o la iem mot ngi chi co quyen quyet nh chi tiep hay ket thuc cuoc au
tr. Nh vay moi not eu co the hoac la iem quyet nh (decision node) khi o
ngi chi chon mot trong nhieu cach chi (chien lc) khac nhau hay iem cuoi
(terminal node), khi ngi chi khong chi na va ket qua cuoc au tr hien ra.
Can bang (equilibrium): la iem ket hp gia chien lc va niem tin ma tat ca cac
ben co kha nang nhat thc hien.
Can bang chung (pooling equilibrium): la giai phap cua cuoc au tr trong o cac
ben co tnh chat khac nhau ap dung cung mot chien lc va v vay ngan ngi khong
co thong tin oc c tnh chat cua moi ben thong qua hanh vi cua ho.
Can bang chien lc duy nhat (pure strategy equilibrium): la can bang Nash trong
o ngi chi ap dung chien lc mot cach chac chan. Ngc lai ngi chi ap dung
can bang chien lc hon hp (mixed strategy equilibrium) khi chien lc toi u cua
ho la la chon ngau nhien va linh ong.
Can bang hoan chnh Bayes (Perfect Bayesian equilibrium): giai phap trong o
ngi chi bat au bang niem tin. Nhng niem tin nay can phai c khang nh
thong qua quy tac Bayes, va hanh vi cua ngi chi tai v tr can bang can phai logic
vi niem tin o. Nh vay iem can bang Bayes ch ung vi ieu kien la niem tin
c khang nh va cha thay oi.
Can bang Nash (Nash equilibrium): la giai phap an toan nhat trong cuoc au tr,
c xac nh bang cach ket hp chien lc toi u cua ca hai ben. Khi nay mot ben
khong the chon chien lc nao khac kha hn trong ieu kien ben kia a chon 1 chien
lc bat ky.

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Can bang Nash tuyet oi th cap (subgame perfect Nash equilibrium): Mot iem
can bang Nash c coi la tuyet oi th cap khi chien lc cua ngi chi at c
can bang Nash trong moi kieu au tr th cap. Noi cach khac, ta co the tach cac cuoc
au tr th cap trong mot chuoi au tr m rong va tm hieu xem co iem can bang
nao ma o ca hai ngi chi eu ap dung cac chien lc toi u trong ieu kien phai
tnh en chien lc cua oi phng.
Can bang phan chia (separating equilibrium): giai phap cho au tr trong o ngi
chi co ban chat khac nhau s dung chien lc khac nhau va v vay ngi khong nam
thong tin co the oc c ban chat cua ngi khac thong qua hanh vi cua ho.
Can bang u the (equilibrium dominance): s ieu chnh cua giai phap Bayes hoan
chnh. Mot ngi chi tin rang ngi kia a ri khoi xu hng can bang (off the
equilibrium path) neu ngi kia tin rang neu ho thay oi chien lc th se thu c ket
qua tot hn, vi ieu kien la oi phng khong biet rang mnh a thay oi chien lc.
Trong cau chuyen ai bang Malta, mot ngi chi khi phat hien ngi kia ri khoi v
tr can bang ma mnh tin la ung se phai ieu chnh lai niem tin cua mnh. Cung
giong nh gia thiet rang oi thu khong bao gi chu b ap at loi chi, viec ieu chnh
niem tin da tren gia thiet rang oi thu khong bao gi chu thiet so vi cac kha nang
khac co li hn tai v tr can bang.
Chien lc (strategy): chien lc cua ngi chi xac nh hanh vi ma ngi chi s
dung da tren thong tin ma ho biet, cho du thong tin nay khong chnh xac do ngi
chi khong biet nhng nc i trc oi phng a i nhng g.
Chien lc cng ran (grim strategy): la chl trong cuoc au tr lap lai vo tan theo o
ngi chi quyet nh hp tac trong giai oan au va bat hp tac neu nh oi phng
to thai o bat hp tac trong nhng lan sau. S hp tac t lan au se c tiep tuc cho
en khi nao oi phng con to thai o hp tac. Neu yeu to khau tr tien dan en 1,
th chien lc ca hai ap dung se bao gom nhieu iem can bang Nash.
Chien lc hon hp va can bang (mixed strategy equilibrium): xem chien lc can
bang duy nhat (pure strategy equilibrium).
Chien lc phu thuoc hay b ap at (dominated strategy): xem chien lc toi u.
Chien lc toi u (dominant strategy): la chien lc tot nhat ma mot ngi chi co
the chi neu khong biet loi chi cua ngi kia. Neu mot chien lc kem hn chien
lc khac, ta goi o la chien lc b ap at hay b phu thuoc (dominated strategy).
Tien e quan trong nhat cua au tr luan la ngi chi luon chon chien lc toi u sao
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cho khong b oi phng ap at loi chi cho mnh (khong phu thuoc vao loi chi cua
ngi khac).
Chon loc (screening): hanh vi ma ngi khong co thong tin la chon dan en viec
ngi co thong tin phan ng theo cach ma ngi khong co thong tin co the nhan ra
c ban chat cua ngi co thong tin. Th du cong ty bao hiem xe c gii co the ap
dung nhieu mc bao hiem khac nhau. Ngi rui ro thap se chon mc thap (va tra ph
thap). Ngi rui ro cao se chon mc cao.
Co ly lien tuc (sequential rationality): mot phan cua giai phap can bang hoan chnh
Bayes. Mot hanh vi c coi la co ly lien tuc neu cac hanh vi ma ngi chi ap dung
la toi u vi ieu kien la niem tin cua ho ve hanh vi cua ngi khac la khong oi.
C che thang than (direct mechanism): cuoc au tr ma o ngi chi thay tot
nhat la nen noi thang chien lc cua mnh vi ben kia. Neu mot cuoc au tr co mot
iem can bang ma o co li nhat cho mot ben, co kha nang la ben o se noi trc
tiep vi ben kia ve chien lc cua mnh. nh ly nay con c goi la nguyen tac
cong bo thong tin.
au tr (game) hay au tr luan (game theory): mo hnh giai thch cac x s cua hai
hay nhieu ngi khi tng tac vi nhau, da tren t nhat ba yeu to: (1) ngi chi, (2)
chien lc chi va (3) ket qua chi. Co hai cach phan loai au tr. Cach th nhat theo
th t chi - ong thi (au tr thong thng) hay lan lt (au tr m rong). Cach th
hai theo y ch cua ngi chi - hp tac hay bat hp tac.
au tr "anh va em" (battle of the sexes game): la mot cuoc au tr hp tac gia hai
v chong. Ca hai muon i chi cung vi nhau nhng co s thch khac nhau - mot thch
i xem a bong va mot thch i mua sam, song khong ai muon ngi khac phai chieu
theo mnh. Ca hai eu muon i chung vi nhau hn la i mot mnh. Moi ngi phai
oan xem ngi khac se lam g va lam theo. ay khong co iem can bang Nash
duy nhat ma hai iem can bang Nash tng ng: ca hai cung xem a bong va ca hai
cung i mua sam. Bat ky s la chon ngau nhien nao cua mot trong hai giai phap
tren eu cho ra ket qua cho ca hai nh nhau, mac du ket qua cua moi ngi khac
nhau.
au tr co nh (stationary game): mot cuoc au tr la co nh va vo han neu bc
tiep theo giong nh bc au tien. Thao luan Rubinstein la mot cuoc au tr nh vay.
V ca hai ben c thong bao trc ve ket qua, nen khong ben nao biet them c g
ve ben kia khi thng thao. Hn na, yeu to chiet khau trong suot cuoc au tr la co
nh. Khi ngi chi bat au vong am phan, ho se v tr bat li hn so vi v tr cua

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ho khi ho co the thoa thuan c vi nhau vong am phan trc, cho du hoan canh
cua ca hai ben trong vong am phan nay la nh nhau.
au tr "ga mai" (chicken game): mot cuoc au tr thong thng gia hai ngi chi
la hai phi cong lao may bay vao nhau. Ngi thang la ngi khong be lai tron thoat.
Ca hai neu am vao nhau th se khong co ai la ngi thang cuoc. Ket qua tot nhat
cho mot ngi la ngi o lai thang va oi phng bo chay (luc o co the dung hoa
lc tieu diet oi phng). Ket qua tot th nh la ca hai cung be lai, th ba la ngi lai
bo chay va oi phng khong uoi theo, cuoi cung la ca hai am vao nhau. Cuoc chi
nay co nhieu iem can bang Nash, nhng khac vi au tr san hu hay anh-em,
chien lc toi u cho moi ngi la lam khac vi chien lc cua oi phng.
au tr hang so (zero-sum game): au tr trong o khi mot ngi chi co ket qua
tang len co ngha la ket qua cua ngi kia se giam i tng ng. Nh vay tong li ch
cua ca hai ngi la mot hang so trong moi s ket hp chien lc cua oi ben (hay t
nhat la vi moi s ket hp chien lc toi u). au tr sap nga hay au tr anh-em la
mot loai au tr hang so.
au tr lap lai (repeated game): la cuoc au tr trong o ngi chi chi mot cuoc
au tr lap lai nhieu lan. Mot dang cua au tr nay la au tr vo tan (indefinitely
repeated game).
au tr m rong (extensive form game): la cuoc au tr bao gom cac yeu to sau: (1)
ngi chi, (2) thi iem quyet nh, (3) kha nang chon la tai cac thi iem nay, (4)
niem tin (da tren thong tin ve chien lc cua oi phng cac bc trc o), va (5)
ket qua vi moi kha nang thc hien.
au tr "nghi pham" (prisoner's dilemma): cuoc au tr thong thng gia hai
ngi chi khong hp tac c vi nhau, co thong tin hoan chnh nhng khong ay u
ve chien lc cua nhau. Chien lc cua hai ben c ap dung khong phai da tren
quyen li chung cua ca hai ma da tren quyen li ca nhan cua ngi chi, sao cho
quyen li o at c v tr toi u cho du oi phng s dung chien lc g.
au tr Rubinstein (Rubinstein bargaining game): cuoc au tr gia hai ngi chi
thao luan vi nhau ve cach chia oi mot so tien. Ngi th nhat e ngh mot t le,
ngi th hai co the chap nhan hay t choi. Neu ngi th hai t choi, ca hai se khong
c g. Ngi th nhat phai a ra e ngh khac, c the en khi nao thoa thuan at
c th so tien mi c chia. Neu ngi th nhat khong a ra e ngh mi, anh ta
co the i tm ngi khac e thao luan. So tien nay e cang lau cang b giam gia.

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au tr "san hu": la mot cuoc au tr thong thng gia hai ngi chi co y nh
cong tac vi nhau co ieu kien. Ca hai thong nhat vi nhau se cung san hu. Tuy
nhien khi gap tho th ca hai se cung san tho. Neu mot ngi lai san hu va ngi
kia uoi theo tho th ch co the bat c tho ch khong bat c hu. Trong cuoc
au tr nay co hai can bang Nash n gian (pure strategy Nash equilibria - hai ngi
cung san mot muc tieu), va mot chien lc can bang Nash hon hp (mixed strategy
Nash equilibrium - la khong cam ket trc se san con g).
au tr sap nga (matching the pennies game): cuoc au tr thong thng gia hai
ngi chi tung hai ong xu sap nga. Neu ca hai ong xu eu sap hay eu nga th
ngi th nhat thang. Ngc lai th ngi th hai thang. Trong tro chi nay khong co
chien lc duy nhat (pure strategy) ma ch co chien lc hon hp (mixed strategy)
ngha la oi khi ngi th nhat oi v tr lai cho ngi th hai.
au tr "san hu" (stag hunt game): la mot cuoc au tr thong thng gia hai
ngi chi co y nh hp tac, co thong tin ay u nhng khong hoan chnh. Trong
cuoc au tr nay co hai iem can bang Nash. Chien lc ma ngi chi ap dung la tot
hay khong tuy thuoc vao chien lc ma ngi kia ap dung. Cuoc au tr bao gom hai
ngi chi la hai th san. Moi ngi eu thch san c hu hn san c tho, song
ho phai cung hp tac mi san c hu. Tuy nhien co kha nang mot ngi se uoi
theo tho trc neu tho xuat hien. V the ngi kia cung khong chac la mnh se san
hu.
au tr thong thng (normal form game): con goi la au tr chien lc, la cuoc
au tr bao gom 3 yeu to (1) ngi chi, (2) chien lc cua moi ngi va (3) ket qua
at c trong cac chien lc.
au tr th cap (subgame): moi bc hay nhieu bc trong mot cuoc au tr m rong
co the c tach rieng va coi nh mot cuoc au tr th cap. Cuoc au tr nay phai
thoa man ba ieu kien: (1) no bat au bang mot bc quyet nh va co mot so thong
tin; (2) no bao gom tat ca cac bc quyet nh va bc cuoi cung theo sau sau bc
quyet nh ma khong con cac bc nao khac; (3) moi bc eu co nhng ket qua le
thuoc vao thong tin co c t nhng bc trc o.
au moi (unravelling result): khi thong tin co the kiem chng c va mot ben biet
ben kia co thong tin nay, ben biet thong tin se co nhieu kha nang t tiet lo thong tin.
Ngi co thong tin co li nhat se t tiet lo e khoi b anh ong vi nhng ngi co
thong tin khong co li. Ngi thong tin co li tiep theo cung se t tiet lo e khoi b
ang ong vi ngi con lai va c the tiep tuc cho en khi ch con lai ngi co thong
tin bat li nhat. en luc nay ngi khong co thong tin co the ket luan: "im lang la
thu toi."
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e doa ang s (credible threat): mot s e doa se c coi la ang s neu ngi e
doa dam thc hien no, du la v li ch trc mat hay v li ch lau dai. S dung cac
phng phap nh au tr th cap hoan chnh hay qui nap ngc chung ta co the biet
c mot s e doa la ang s hay khong.
iem tap trung (focal point/Schelling point): la tap hp cua cac chien lc ma cac
ben muon thc hien bi v no noi troi hn, xet en ieu kien va ac iem moi trng
ma cac ben ang tham gia.
ieu chnh (refinement): cac giai phap thng dan en nhieu iem can bang. ieu
chnh la s loai suy cac giai phap dan en iem can bang ma cac ben t co kha nang
s dung. Ly do khong s dung co the do li e doa cua ngi chi a ra khong ang
s hay niem tin thay oi. Hoan chnh au tr th cap va u the can bang la hai phng
phap ieu chnh.
nh luat Coase (Coase theorem): khi thong tin la hoan chnh, chi ph giao dch
bang khong, va cac rao can cho mot cuoc thng thao cong bang la khong co, th quy
nh ve quyen s hu la khong can thiet, va cac ben se biet cach thoa thuan sao cho
co hieu qua nhat.
Gia tr cua doanh nghiep ang hoat ong (on-going concern): Mot doanh nghiep
ang hoat ong se co gia tr cao hn khi doanh nghiep o thanh ly tai san. S chenh
lech ve gia tr trong hai trng hp se c goi la gia tr thang d ong (on-going
surplus).
Giai phap (solution concepts): cong cu e giai quyet cac cuoc au tr. Giai phap la
cac d oan chung ve nhng ngi chi suy luan co ly se ap dung chien lc va ve
cach thc ma ngi chi ap dung e at c muc ch.
Hp ong khong hoan chnh (incomplete contract): la hp ong co mot so ieu
khoan m e cac ben co the thoa thuan lai sau nay khi mot so thong tin a c kiem
chng. Vi cach nhn nay, ieu quan trong nhat khong phai la hp ong d tru c
loi thoat tot nhat cho moi trng hp, ma d tru c ngha vu cua moi ben trong moi
kha nang.
Ket qua (payoff): li ch ma moi ben at c sau khi ket hp chien lc cua mnh
vi chien lc cua oi thu. Li ch c bieu hien n gian bang con so. Cac con so
nay khong nhat thiet phai chnh xac nh thc te. No ch c s dung e so sanh vi
trng hp ngi chi s dung cac chien lc khac.

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Li dung (moral hazard): xay ra khi mot ben co the lam ieu ma ben kia hay toa an
khong biet. e tranh cac hanh vi li dung sau khi a giao ket hp ong, mot ben
thng c phep la chon chien lc trc, da tren c s o ben kia se ieu chnh
gia ca hp ong. Cac c che e tranh li dung bao gom phat tn hieu (signal) va chon
loc (selection).
Loi thoat (exit option): la quyen cua mot ngi chi cham dt thao luan va nhan mot
so ket qua khac do mnh la chon.
La chon bat li (adverse selection): la mot van e cua thong tin bat oi xng. Cac
ben co thong tin rieng va khong kiem chng c biet trc ho co the tao ra them chi
ph cho oi phng. V the cac ben co rui ro cao nhat (nam nhieu thong tin khong
kiem chng c nhat) se de ky hp ong nhat vi ben khong nam thong tin. Ben
khong nam thong tin v vay se chu nhieu rui ro hn va tang gia tr hp ong. Ket qua
la lam van e tram trong them. Van e la chon bat li hay xay ra trong hp ong
bao hiem, tn dung va nhieu hp ong khac.
Ly thuyet ve li ch d kien cua von Neumann-Morgenstern (von NeumannMorgetnstern expected utility theory): khi ngi chi phai quyet nh trong mot
trng hp khong chac chan, moi ngi co the anh dau quyet nh cua mnh bang
mot ai lng bieu th li ch d kien (expected utility) cua mnh t quyet nh o.
Sau o chon giai phap toi u bang cach kiem li ch d kien toi a. Trong au tr
luan, li ch d kien c goi la ket qua, con quyet nh c goi la chien lc.
Muc tieu (axioms): la kha nang chien lc hien thc nhat trong mot cuoc au tr hp
tac, sao cho ket qua at c la toi u Pareto.
Ngi chi (player): la ngi tham gia vao cuoc au tr va co kha nang ap dung cac
chien lc mot cach oc lap.
Ngan chan (preemption): mot cong ty co u the tren th trng se ngan chan cac
cong ty khac xam nhap th trng cach hanh ong trc, th du nh m rong san xuat
e lap ay moi cho trong tren th trng.
Ngoai to mang (network externality): ngoai to xay ra khi so lng ngi s dung
mot cong cu quyet nh gia tr cua cong cu o theo t le thuan.
Nh va (free riding): mot ngi chi co kha nang c hng li t hanh vi cua
ngi khac ma khong phai tra tien c go la ngi nh va (free rider). Van e nh

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va hay xay ra trong cac hanh vi tap the (collective action) oi vi mot tai san cong
cong (public good).
Niem tin (beliefs): khi mot ngi chi en lt phai quyet nh chien lc trong mot
cuoc au tr m rong co nhieu bc, ngi chi se s dung niem tin la xac suat ve kha
nang ben kia se oi pho vi mnh nh the nao. Mot cach giai quyet can bang Bayes
hoan chnh yeu cau niem tin cua cac ben phai tuan thu quy tac Bayes.
Noi chuyen (cheap talk): khi mot ben tuyen bo y nh cua mnh vi ben kia nham
cung cap cho ben kia mot so thong tin, mac du cac thong tin nay khong bao am gia
tr, khong quy nh rang buoc ma cung khong kiem chng c.
Nguyen tac kham pha (revelation principle): nguyen tac trong o oi vi moi thiet
ke c che dan en mot iem can bang, ton tai mot c che thang than trong o cac ben
t cho biet cach chi cua mnh e ben kia co the co chien lc dan en iem can
bang. Neu khong co c che thang than ton tai dan en can bang, th khong co c che
khac co the dan en can bang. Nguyen tac nay c ap dung trong cac mo hnh
nghien cu phng phap tranh cac hanh vi tap the, xam hai tai san cong cong.
Phat tn hieu (signalling): chien lc cua ngi co thong tin rieng khong kiem chng
c e truyen at thong tin cua mnh.
Phng phap ieu chnh Farell, Grossman va Perry (Farell, Grossman and Perry
refinement): la giai phap can bang Bayes hoan chnh, trong o yeu cau ngi chi
ieu chnh lai niem tin neu oi phng a ap dung chien lc chi cho ket qua khac
vi mnh d oan tai iem can bang Bayes.
Quy nap ngc (backwards induction): la giai phap ap dung trong cac trng hp
au tr m rong (extensive form game) bao gom nhieu bc. e s dung no, ngi
chi xet cac thong tin (information sets) san co tnh en thi iem gan nhat, tai iem
quyet nh (decision nodes), ngay trc iem sau cung (terminal nodes). Sau o
ngi chi thiet ke chien lc sao tai iem quyet nh cho bang iem sau cung va
thay cuoc au tr o bang ket qua iem sau cung. C the tiep tuc (lan ngc len)
cho en khi ch con mot ket qua. Ket qua o la iem can bang cua cuoc au tr.

Quy tac Bayes (Bayes' rule): qui tac anh gia lai niem tin da tren cac thong tin mi.
Th du, thong qua quan sat cach c x cua mot ngi chung ta co the biet ngi o la
ngi nh the nao va co au phap tng ng. Quy tac Bayes tm niem tin da tren hai
d kien: xac suat quan sat c chnh xac hanh vi cua oi phng, va xac suat oi
phng se co hanh vi o. Xac suat cua ngi chi co mot hanh vi nhat nh neu ln
hn 50% th oi phng se xac nh dang ngi chi (type). Neu niem tin nhat quan
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vi chien lc toi u cua oi phng, ta goi iem can bang nay la can bang Bayes
(Bayesian equilibrium).
Quy tac co (folk theorems): cac quy tac nay la trong tam cua cac cuoc au tr lap lai
vo tan (indefinitely repeated games). Quy tac au tien noi rang khi yeu to chiet khau
u ln, luon ton tai t nhat mot iem can bang Nash tap hp cac ket qua va kha thi,
va cho moi ben nhieu t nhat bang ket qua khi oi phng muon ha thap ket qua cua
mnh. Cac quy tac tiep theo phat trien y tng can bang au tr Nash th cap hoan
chnh (subgame perfect Nash equilibria) va cac ieu chnh khac. Quy tac co cho thay
cac tap hp chien lc se tao thanh iem can bang trong mot cuoc au tr lap lai. V
vay, khong the ap dung mot tap hp chien lc (th du phng phap "theo uoi") e
ap lai au phap cua oi phng.
Thao luan trong trng hp bat cong tac (non co-operative bargaining): cuoc thao
luan trong o cau truc va th t c thiet lap sao cho ngi chi thc hien chien lc
y nh trong trng hp ho co y nh cong tac.
Theo uoi (tit-for-tat): chien lc trong cuoc au tr lap lai vo cung, o mot ngi
chi quyet nh se cong tac t au. Neu ngi kia bat cong tac th mnh cung cong
tac. Neu ngi kia oi lai chien lc nh cu th mnh cung oi lai chien lc nh cu.
Nh vay chien lc theo uoi linh ong hn chien lc cng ran. Neu yeu to chiet
khau tien dan en khong, chien lc theo uoi se co nhieu iem can bang Nash trong
cac cuoc au tr lap lai (xem au tr "san hu"). Ket qua kiem chng trong thc te
cho thay ay la chien lc hieu qua. Tuy nhien khi ap dung cac qui tac co th khong
the ket luan rang ca hai ngi chi se ap dung chien lc theo uoi. Hn na chien
lc theo uoi khong the ap dung neu ngi chi khong co thong tin hoan chnh.
Thong tin hoan chnh (perfect information): la thong tin ma ngi chi nam ve
chien lc cua oi phng cho en luc quyet nh. Mot thong tin c coi la ay u
nhng khong hoan chnh neu cac ben nam ket qua cua cuoc chi, nhng khong biet
chien lc cua oi phng la the nao. au tr "nghi pham" va "san hu" la hai loai
au tr co thong tin ay u nhng khong hoan chnh. Moi ben phai quyet nh khi
khong biet ngi kia se ap dung chien lc g.
Thong tin (information set): Mot ngi chi trong cuoc au tr m rong oi khi phai
quyet nh khi cha biet chuyen g va xay ra. Neu ngi o nam thong tin, th quyet
nh cua ho se la quyet nh duy nhat. Cac loai thong tin nay khong nhat thiet la
thong tin ve chien lc cua oi phng, ma co the la ve xac suat chi va hau qua cua
chung oi vi oi phng.

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Thong tin chung (common knowledge): la cac thong tin ma ngi chi nao cung
biet, ngi chi cung biet la oi phng biet, va oi phng cung biet la ngi chi
biet oi phng biet, v.v. va v.v.
Thong tin ay u (complete information): Trong mot cuoc au tr ca hai co thong
tin chung ve ket qua oi vi tng chien lc cua ca hai ngi, cuoc au tr o goi la
co thong tin ay u.
Thong tin c kiem chng (verifiable information): la thong tin khi ngi chi co
thong tin co the truyen at thong tin o cho ngi chi kia hay cho ngi th ba.
Thong tin khong kiem chng c (non verifiable information): la thong tin cua
mot ben khong c trc tiep truyen tai hay khong the thuyet phuc c ben kia.
Trong trng hp o ben khong co thong tin phai oc thong tin thong qua hanh vi cua
ben co thong tin.
Thong tin quan sat c (observable information): thong tin quan sat c nhng
khong kiem chng c la loai thong tin ve dang ngi chi ma ngi chi kia nam
c, nhng khong truyen tai hay khong thuyet phuc c ngi th ba.
Thong tin rieng (private information): la thong tin ch mot hay mot vai ngi chi
biet. Cac thong tin nay co the thuoc dang kiem chng c hay khong kiem chng
c.
Thng thuyet tap the (collective bargaining): con goi la phng phap tien e
(axiomatic approach), liet ke tat ca cac muc tieu toi u co the at c, sau o xem
xet cac ieu kien e at c muc tieu tren, sao cho chien lc cua moi ben e at
c muc tieu o se la chien lc can bang duy nhat. Chng trnh Nash la no lc
noi cac nguyen tac cua mot cuoc au tr hp tac vi cac cuoc au tr khong hp tac.
Toi u Pareto (Pareto optimal): la giai phap cua cuoc au tr bao gom cac chien
lc trong o t nhat mot ben co ket qua kha hn va ben kia khong co ket qua xau
hn.
Toi u lap lai (iterated dominance): la giai phap da tren gia thiet rang moi ben se
ap dung chien lc toi u va khong e cho ben kia ap at loi chi. Ngi chi gia
thiet oi phng se s dung chien lc toi u, t o se suy ra chien lc toi u cua
mnh la g. Hai ngi gia thiet qua lai nh vay sao cho sau cung ca hai tm c chien
lc toi u dan en iem can bang Nash.

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T nhien (Nature): la mot ngi chi gia nh c a vao mot cuoc au tr m

rong e chuyen mot cuoc au tr co thong tin khong hoan chnh (ve ket qua) thanh
mot cuoc au tr khong tuyet oi (ve chien lc). T nhien quyet nh xac suat chi
cua ngi chi thong qua thong tin rieng. moi bc i, ngi khong co thong tin se
nam c mot so thong tin lien quan mot luc en nhieu bc i cua oi phng trc
o. Moi bc i co lien quan en dang cua ngi chi ma T nhien a chon.
Xu hng can bang (equilibrium path): trong mot cuoc au tr m rong, xu hng
can bang la tap hp cac hanh vi co kha nang tien ti can bang. Cac bc i ra ngoai
xu the can bang la cac bc khong bao gi tien ti iem can bang, va v the cac ben
se khong thc hien. Tuy nhien gia thiet nay ch ung neu niem tin cua cac ben tai
cac bc i la khong thay oi, v t tng ch ao hanh ong.
Yeu to khau tr (discount factor): trong mot cuoc au tr lap lai, ket qua at c
t sau bao gi cung kem gia tr hn cung ket qua neu at c t trc. Yeu to
khau tr la mot tham so nham xac nh gia tr hien tai cua mot ket qua sau. Th du
sau nay nhan c 1 ong th tng ng vi hien tai nhan c ong. V the neu
hom nay bo ra ong th e ngay mai thu c 1 ong phai tnh lai suat la (1 - )/.
Yeu to ngoai lai - hay ngoai to (externality): la yeu to xuat hien khi mot ngi thu
toan bo li ch hay chu toan bo thiet hai t mot hanh vi cua mnh ma khong s ngi
khac phan ng. Xem phan hieu ng mang (network externality) Chng 7.

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