BAI GIANG

XAC SUAT THONG KE

(GV: Tran Ngoc Hoi 2009)
CHNG 3

LY THUYET MAU VA C LNG

1. Khai niem ve mau
Khi nghien cu cac van e ve kinh te - xa hoi, cung nh nhieu
van e thuoc cac lnh vc khac, ngi ta thng phai khao sat mot
so dau hieu tren nhng phan t thuoc mot so oi tng nao o.
Tap hp toan bo cac phan t cha ng thong tin ve cac dau hieu
can nghien cu c goi la am ong hay tong the. e nghien cu
am ong theo mot hay mot so dau hieu nao o, thong thng ta
khong the nghien cu toan bo cac phan t thuoc am ong v
nhieu ly do, chang han nh: so lng qua ln, mot so trng hp
cac phan t sau khi c nghien cu se b mat pham chat, V
nhng ly do tren, e nghien cu am ong ta thung chon ngau
nhien n phan t nao o e khao sat. Ta goi o la mot mau c n.
Thong thng, c mau nho hn nhieu so vi so lng phan t cua
am ong, v vay ta co kha nang thc te e thu thap, x ly va
khai thac thong tin mau mot cach nhanh chong, toan dien hn. T
nhng thong tin thu c tren mau, s dung ly thuyet xac suat,
ngi ta se a ra nhng ket luan tng ng ve am ong. o
chnh la muc ch cua phng phap thong ke.
Co nhieu phng phap lay mau. Lay mau co hoan lai la lay
mot phan t e khao sat, xong roi lai tra vao am ong roi mi
lay tiep phan t khac, khi o cac ket qua lay c se oc lap vi
nhau. Con lay khong hoan lai hay lay luon mot lan th ket qua se
phu thuoc. Trong thc te, neu am ong kha ln th viec lay mau
co hoan lai hay khong hoan lai cho ta ket qua sai lech khong
ang ke. ac biet khi am ong la vo han con c mau hu han
th khong co s khac biet gia hai phng phap chon mau nay.
Trong phan bai giang nay, chung ta ch xet viec chon mau cho ta
cac ket qua oc lap.

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Khi nghien cu am ong theo mot dau hieu nao o, dau

hieu o thay oi t phan t nay sang phan t khac cua am ong
va do o tao nen mot ai lng ngau nhien X. V vay, ta xem
am ong nh la mot ai lng ngau nhien X ac trng cho
dau hieu cua cac phan t trong am ong ma ta quan tam. Tat
nhien X co luat phan phoi nhng v cha nghien cu c toan
bo am ong nen xem nh ta cha biet c luat phan phoi cua
X.
Nh vay, khi xet am ong X th mot mau c n se nh the
nao?
Chon ngau nhien mot phan t cua am ong e o dau hieu
ma ta quan tam, goi X1 la ket qua thu c. V phan t c
chon ngau nhien t am ong, nen X1 co the nhan cac gia tr
khac nhau (giong nh X), tuy nhien viec X1 nhan cac gia tr nao,
vi xac suat bao nhieu phai tuan theo luat phan phoi cua X (mac
du, noi chung ta cha biet luat phan phoi nay!). Nh vay X1 la ai
lng ngau nhien co cung phan phoi vi X.
Chon ngau nhien tiep theo mot phan t cua am ong e o
dau hieu ma ta quan tam (sau khi a hoan lai phan t au a
chon, hoac khong can hoan lai neu am ong ln), goi X2 la ket
qua thu c. Ly luan tng t nh tren cho thay X2 cung la ai
lng ngau nhien co cung phan phoi vi X. C tiep tuc nh the ta
se chon c mot mau c n. Nh vay, co the noi mot mau c n la
mot bo gom n ai lng ngau nhien oc lap (X1,X2,,Xn), trong o
moi Xi eu co cung phan phoi vi X. Ta con goi ay la mot mau
tong quat c n. Moi gia tr (x1,x2,,xn) cua mau (X1,X2,,Xn) c
goi la mot mau cu the c n. Nh vay mot mau cu the c n
chnh la mot bo n so lieu thu thap c khi ta chon ngau nhien n
phan t cua am ong e o dau hieu ma ta quan tam (ay chnh
la mau ma ta thng dung trong thc te). ng vi mot mau tong
quat se co nhieu mau cu the tng ng.
V du: Mot lo hang rat ln co t le san pham tot la p cha
biet. Dau hieu X ma ta quan tam khi xem xet mot san pham la
chat lng cua no. Khi san pham tot ta at X = 1, khi san pham
khong tot ta at X = 0. Nh vay X co phan phoi Bernoulli X
B(p) nh sau:
X
0
1
P
q
p
2

Mot mau c n = 5 la mot bo gom 5 ai lng ngau nhien (X1, X2,

X3, X4, X5) ma moi Xi eu co cung phan phoi Bernoulli vi X: Xi
B(p), ngha la
0
1
Xi
P
q
p
(i= 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Neu ta tien hanh chon ngau nhien n = 5 san
pham e quan sat va c ket qua: San pham th nhat tot, th
hai va th ba xau, th t va th nam tot. Khi o X1 = 1, X2 = 0,
X3 = 0, X4 = 1, X5 = 1 va ta co mot mau cu the c n = 5:
(x1, x2, x3, x4, x5) = (1, 0, 0, 1, 1).
Chu y:
am ong (hay Tong the): Tap hp tat ca cac phan t can khao
sat. ac iem cua am ong: rat nhieu phan t; kho khao sat het;...
Cach khao sat am ong: Quan tam en mot tnh chat cu the
nao o. Tnh chat nay thay oi t phan t nay sang phan t khac ----> ong nhat am ong vi vi mot LNN X nao o.
e khao sat am ong X ngi ta chon ngau nhien n phan t
nao o cua am ong e khao sat. Ta goi o la mot mau kch thc
n (hay c n). T nhng thong tin thu c tren mau, dung ly
thuyet xac suat e rut ra nhng ket luan tng ng cho am ong
(ay la muc tieu cua Thong ke)
V du: Xet am ong X la iem mon XSTK cua SV Viet Nam noi
chung. Tat nhien X co luat phan phoi (ma ta cha biet):
X
0
0,5
................ 9,5
10
P
?
?
................ ?
0,1%
e khao sat X ta chon mot mau c n = 3. Cac so lieu thu thap c
nh sau:
X2
X3
Mau c 3
X1
Lay mau lan 1 6,0
7,5
9,0
Lay mau lan 2 0,0
9,5
10,0
Lay mau lan 3 1,0
2,0
3,0
Lay mau lan 4 4,0
5,0
6,0
Moi Xi co cung phan phoi vi X. Cac Xi oc lap nhau. Nh vay:
- Mot mau c n la mot bo gom n LNN oc lap (X1, X2,...,
Xn) ma moi Xi co cung phan phoi vi X.

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- Khi cho X1 nhan gia tr x1; X2 nhan gia tr x2; ...; Xn nhan
gia tr xn th mau (X1, X2,..., Xn) nhan gia tr la (x1, x2,..., xn) (ay
chnh la mau thong thng trong thc te).
2. Ky vong mau
2.1. nh ngha: Ky vong mau hay Trung bnh mau cua am
X la ai
ong X ng vi mau (X1, X2,, Xn), k hieu X n hay
lng ngau nhien nh bi:
X=

1 n
Xi
n i =1

Khi (X1,X2,,Xn) nhan gia tr la mau cu the (x1, x2,,xn) th ky

vong mau X nhan gia tr cu the la:

x=

1 n
xi
n i=1

Nhan xet: Ky vong mau cua am ong X ng vi mau (X1,X2,,Xn)

chnh la trung bnh cong cua X1, X2,, Xn.
2.2. Y ngha: Khi

ky vong mau

X n hoi tu ve ky

vong am ong = M(X). Do o khi n kha ln ta xap x:

= M (X ) Xn
2.3. Cac ac so cua ky vong mau:
Khac vi ky vong cua am ong = M(X) la mot hang so,
ky vong mau X la mot ai lng ngau nhien ma gia tr c xac
nh khi ta biet cac gia tr quan sat cu the. Trong phan nay, ta se
xac nh ky vong va phng sai cua ky vong mau X theo ky vong
= M(X) va phng sai 2 = D(X) cua am ong X.

am ong X
Ky vong mau
- Ky vong cua

Ky vong

X:

Phng sai
2
??

X 1 + X 2 + ... + X n
M(X 1 + X 2 + ... + X n )
)=
n
n
M(X 1 ) + M(X 2 ) + ... + M(X n )
=
n
M(X) + M(X) + ... + M(X)
=
(do moi X i co cung phan phoi vi X)
n
= M(X) = .

M(X) = M(

Vay ky vong cua ky vong mau X bang ky vong am ong =

M(X). Ngha la trong xap x = M ( X ) X n gia tr trung bnh

3.1. nh ngha: Phng sai mau cua am ong X ng vi

2

n
2 = 1
S
(X i X)2

n i =1

Can bac hai cua phng sai mau la S c goi la o lech mau.
Khi (X1,X2,,Xn) nhan gia tr la mau cu the (x1, x2,,xn) th
2
phng sai mau S nhan gia tr cu the la:

2
1 n
s = (x i x)2
n i =1

cua nhng so lieu ma ta co c, dung e tnh xap x ky vong am

ong (gia tr ma ta can biet) bang ung ky vong am ong.
Trong phan sau, ta goi xap x nay la c lng khong chech.
- Phng sai cua

Nhan xet: ng vi mau (X1, X2,, Xn), ta co :

X:

X1 + X 2 + ... + X n
D(X1 + X 2 + ... + X n )
)=
n
n2
D(X 1 ) + D(X 2 ) + ... + D(X n )
=
(do cac X i oc lap)
n2
D(X) + D(X) + ... + D(X)
=
(do moi X i co cung phan phoi vi X)
n2
D(X) 2
=
=
.
n
n
Vay phng sai cua ky vong mau X bang phng sai am
ong chia cho c mau.
Tom lai:
D(X) = D(

am ong X
Ky vong mau

 , la ai lng ngau
 n hay S
mau
(X1, X2,, Xn), k hieu S
nhien nh bi:

(X1 - X , X2 - X ,, Xn - X ) la mau o lech (so vi ky vong

mau).
((X1 - X )2, (X2 - X )2,, (Xn - X )2) la bnh phng cua mau o
lech (so vi ky vong mau).
2

Nh vay, phng sai mau S =

bnh cong (tc trung bnh mau) cua bnh phng o lech mau (so
vi ky vong mau).
3.2. Cong thc tnh phng sai mau:
Tng t nh phng sai am ong, ta co cong thc tnh phng
sai mau nh sau:

Ky vong Phng sai

2/n

ieu o chng to cac gia tr cua ky vong mau X co trung bnh

bang trung bnh cua X nhng cac gia tr nay ong eu hn cac gia
tr cua X.

n
1 n
1 n
2 = 1
S
X 2i (X)2 = X 2i ( X i )2

n i =1
n i =1
n i =1

That vay,

3. Phng sai mau va o lech mau

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1 n
(X i X)2 chnh la trung
n i =1

n
1 n
2 = 1
S
(X i X)2 = (X i2 2XX i + X 2 )

n i =1
n i =1

Phng sai mau hieu chnh cua am ong X ng vi mau (X1,

X2,, Xn), k hieu S2n hay S2 la ai lng ngau nhien nh bi:

1 n
1 n
1 n
1 n
1 n
1
X i 2 2XX i + X 2 = X i 2 2X( X i ) + nX 2

n i =1
n i =1
n i =1
n i =1
n i =1
n

1 n
1 n
X i 2 2XX + X 2 = X i 2 X 2

n i =1
n i =1

3.3. Y ngha: Khi

phng sai mau

S2 =

Can bac hai cua phng sai mau hieu chnh la S c goi la o
lech mau hieu chnh.
Cong thc tnh phng sai mau hieu chnh nh sau:

2
S n hoi tu ve

S2 =

phng sai am ong = D(X). Do o khi n kha ln ta xap x:

2
2 = D(X) S n

3.4. Ky vong cua phng sai mau:

Khac vi phng sai cua am ong 2 = D(X) la mot hang
so, phng sai mau

2
S n

la mot ai lng ngau nhien ma gia tr

c xac nh khi ta biet cac gia tr quan sat cu the.

Ky vong

am ong X
Phng sai mau

Phng sai
2

2
S n

Ngi ta chng minh c rang phng sai mau co ky vong la:

2

M( S n ) =

n 1 2
.
n

 2n , gia tr trung bnh

Nh vay, trong xap x = D(X) S
2

cua S n hi lech so vi 2 mot t, ngha la trung bnh cua nhng

so lieu ma ta co c, dung e tnh xap x phng sai am ong
(gia tr ma ta can biet), khong bang phng sai am ong ma
hi lech mot t. V vay, e co c c lng khong chech nh khi
tnh xap x ky vong am ong, ngi ta xay dng phng sai mau
a hieu chnh nh sau:

3.5. Phng sai mau hieu chnh:

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n 2
S
n 1

1 n 2
n
X i n 1 (X)2
n 1 i =1

Nhan xet: Vi nh ngha nh tren, ta co:

M(S2 ) = M(

n 2
n
 2 ) = n . n 1 2 = 2 .
S )=
M(S
n 1
n 1
n 1 n

ngha la ky vong cua phng sai mau a hieu chnh bang phng
sai am ong.
3. T le mau
3.1. M au: Trong phan nay, ta xet am ong vi t le cac
phan t co tnh chat A la p. Dau hieu X ma ta quan tam khi khao
sat mot phan t cua am ong la no co tnh chat A hay khong:
Neu co, ta at X = 1; neu khong, ta at X = 0. Nh vay, am
ong c ac trng bi ai lng ngau nhien X co phan phoi
Bernoulli X B(p) nh sau:
X
P

0
q

1
p

(q = 1-p).
Vi am ong X nh tren, mot mau c n la mot bo gom n ai
lng ngau nhien (X1, X2, , Xn) ma moi Xi eu co cung phan phoi
Bernoulli vi X: Xi B(p), ngha la
0
1
Xi
P
q
p
Noi cach khac, moi Xi ch nhan hai gia tr: 0 (vi xac suat q) va 1
(vi xac suat p).
3.2. nh ngha: T le mau cua am ong X ng vi mau
(X1, X2,, Xn), k hieu Fn, la ai lng ngau nhien nh bi:

Fn =

1 n
Xi
n i =1

Khi (X1, X2,, Xn) nhan gia tr la mau cu the (x1, x2,,xn) th
t le mau Fn nhan gia tr cu the la:

fn =

1
xi .
n i =1

Nhan xet: Theo nh ngha, t le mau co bieu thc giong nh

ky vong mau. Tuy nhien, ay cac Xi ch nhan hai gia tr 0 va 1
tuy theo phan t th i ma ta quan sat la khong co tnh chat A
hay co tnh chat A. Nh vay, cac gia tr cua t le mau chnh la t le
cac phan t co tnh chat A trong cac mau cu the.
3.3. Y ngha: Khi n t le mau Fn hoi tu ve t le am
ong p. Do o khi n kha ln ta xap x:
p Fn
3.4. Cac ac so cua t le mau:
Chu y rang am ong X co phan phoi Bernoulli X B(p) nen
ky vong am ong la M(X) = p va phng sai am ong la D(X) =
pq. V bieu thc cua t le mau giong bieu thc cua ky vong mau
nen ly luan hoan toan tng t nh oi vi ky vong mau, ta tm
c cac ac so cua t le mau nh sau:

Khi thu thap so lieu ta thng lap bang so lieu theo cac dang
sau:
Dang 1: Liet ke di dang:
x1, x2,, xn
trong o moi so lieu co the lap lai nhieu lan.
Dang 2: Lap bang co dang:

Vay ky vong cua t le mau Fn bang t le am ong p,

ngha la trong xap x p Fn gia tr trung bnh cua nhng so lieu
ma ta co c, dung e tnh xap x t le am ong (gia tr ma ta
can biet) bang ung t le am ong. Nh a noi, trong phan sau,
ta goi xap x nay la c lng khong chech.

x2
n2

.. xk
nk

trong o x1 < x2 < < xk va moi so lieu xi xuat hien ni lan.

Dang 3: Lap bang co dang:
x1-x2 x2-x3 .. xk-xk+1
n1
n2 .
nk

Xi
ni

trong o x1 < x2 < < xk < xk+1 va moi na khoang [xi; xi+1)
(tr cai cuoi cung la oan [xk; xk+1]) cha ni so lieu.
Khi x ly so lieu ta se a so lieu ve Dang 2: Co the a
Dang 1 ve Dang 2 bang cach thong ke lai. Dang 3 c a ve
Dang 2 bang cach thay cac khoang xi-xi+1 bang gia tr trung bnh
cua hai au mut

Ky vong cua Fn: M(Fn) = M(X) = p.

x1
n1

Xi
ni

x'i =

xi + xi +1
2

Di Dang 2 cac cong thc ve ky vong mau va phng sai mau

nh sau:
Ky vong mau:
X=

1 k
X in i
n i =1

Phng sai mau:

Phng sai cua Fn:

D( Fn ) =

D( X ) pq
=
n
n

4. Bang so lieu va v du tnh cac ac trng mau

4.1. Bang so lieu:

k
2 = 1
S
X 2i n i (X)2

n i =1

T le mau: Viec tnh t le mau rat n gian v ta ch can

xac nh so phan t m thoa tnh chat A cua mau c n, khi o
ta co
Fn =

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10

m
n

4.2. V du: e khao sat ch tieu X cua mot loai san pham,
ngi ta quan sat mot mau va co ket qua sau:
X(cm)
So san pham

11-15 15-19 19-23 23-27 27-31 31-35 35-39

8
9
20
16
16
13
18

4.3. Hng dan s dung phan mem thong ke trong cac

may tnh bo tui CASIO 500MS, 570MS, 500ES, 570ES,..) tnh
cac ac trng mau:
V du. Xet lai v du tren vi bang so lieu:

Nhng san pham co ch tieu X t 19 cm tr xuong c xep vao

loai B. Hay xac nh ky vong mau, phng sai mau, phng sai
mau hieu chnh cua ch tieu X va t le mau san pham loai B.
Giai
Trc het ta thay cac khoang xi-xi+1 bang gia tr trung bnh cua
hai au mut
Xi
ni
Ta co:

x'i =

xi + xi +1
2

13
8

17
9

21
20

25
16

n = 100; X in i

=2636;

29
16

33
13

37
18

X i2ni =75028.

Xi
ni

21
20

25
16

29
16

33
13

37
18

1)

Vao MODE SD: Bam MODE (vai lan...) va bam so ng vi

2)

SD, tren man hnh se hien len ch SD.

Xoa bo nh thong ke: Bam SHIFT MODE 1 (man hnh
hien len Stat clear) = AC . Kiem tra lai: Bam nut tron
hoac thay n = va goc so 0 la a xoa.

3)

Nhap so lieu: Trnh t bam nh sau:

(khi bam SHIFT ,

xi SHIFT , ni M+

tren man hnh hien len dau ;). Cu the, ta

bam:

1
X i ni = 26,36 (cm).
n

Phng sai mau cua X la:

 = 1
S
X i2ni X 2 =(7, 4452)2 = 55, 4304 (cm2 ).
n
2

Phng sai mau hieu chnh cua X la:

S2 =

17
9

a) oi vi loai may tnh CASIO 500 va 570MS:

Ky vong mau cua X la

X=

13
8

n 2
S = (7, 4827)2 = 55, 9903 (cm 2 ).
n 1

T le mau san pham loai B la:

m 17
Fn = =
= 0,17 = 17%.
n 100

v trong n = 100 san pham co m = 8 + 9 = 17 san pham co ch

tieu X nho hn hay bang 19 cm, ngha la co 17 san pham loai B.
11

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4)

1 3 SHIFT , 8

M+

1 7 SHIFT , 9

M+

2 1 SHIFT , 2 0

M+

2 5 SHIFT , 1 6

M+

2 9 SHIFT , 1 6

M+

3 3 SHIFT , 1 3

M+

3 7 SHIFT , 1 8

M+

Kiem tra va sa so lieu sai: Bam nut tron e kiem tra

viec nhap so lieu. Thay so lieu nao sai th e man hnh ngay
so lieu o, nhap so lieu ung va bam = th so lieu mi se
thay cho so lieu cu.
V du. Nhap sai 1 3 SHIFT , 7

tren man hnh hien ra:

12

M+ . Khi kiem tra ta thay

- x1 = 13 (sai).
- Freq1 = 7 (sai)
Sa nh sau: e man hnh Freq1 = 7, bam 8
nhan c so lieu ung Freq1 = 8.

= th

So lieu nao b nhap d th e man hnh so lieu o va

bam SHIFT M+ th toan bo so lieu o (gom gia tr cua X va xac
suat

tng

ng)

se

4 7 SHIFT , 1 8

xoa.

Chang

han,

nhap

M . Khi kiem tra ta thay x8 = 47 (d). Ta e

man hnh so lieu o va bam SHIFT M+ th toan bo so lieu d

(gom gia tr cua X = 47 va tan so tng ng 18) se b xoa.
Chu y. Sau khi kiem tra viec nhap so lieu xong, phai bam
AC e xoa man hnh va thoat khoi che o chnh sa.
5)

oc ket qua:
ai lng
can tm

Tong bnh phng

X n
Tong X n
i

Thao tac

Ket qua

SHIFT 1 1 =

= 75028

ni =

So lieu nao b nhap d th e con tro so lieu o va bam

2

SHIFT 1 2 =

X = 2636

C mau n

SHIFT 1 3 =

n = 100

Ky vong M(X)

SHIFT 2 1 =

X = 26.36

M(X) = X


o lech mau S

SHIFT 2 2 =

xn = 7.4452

o lech mau hieu

chnh S

SHIFT 2 3 =

xn 1 = 7.4827

 = x
S
n
S = xn 1

nhap so lieu ung va bam = th so lieu mi se thay cho so lieu cu.

Ghi chu
2

X n
i

4) Kiem tra va sa so lieu sai: Bam nut tron e kiem tra viec
nhap so lieu. Thay so lieu nao sai th e con tro ngay so lieu o,

 2 = (7, 4452)2
Phng sai mau S

Phng sai mau hieu chnh S2 = (7, 4827)2

DEL th toan bo so lieu o (gom gia tr cua X va tan suat tng

ng) se b xoa.
Chu y. Sau khi kiem tra viec nhap so lieu xong, phai bam
AC e xoa man hnh va thoat khoi che o chnh sa. Trong qua
trnh xu ly so lieu, muon xem lai bang so lieu th bam
SHIFT 1 2

5) oc ket qua:
ai lng
can tm
Tong bnh phng

X n
Tong X n
i

1) Khai bao cot tan so: Bam SHIFT SETUP 4 1

(Bam bang cach bam nut tron xuong)
2) Vao Mode Thong ke: Bam MODE 3 1 (hoac MODE 2 1 )
(Tren man hnh se hien len ch STAT)
3) Nhap so lieu: Nh trong bang sau:

13

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Ket qua

SHIFT 1 4 1 =

= 75028

Ghi chu

ni =

SHIFT 1 4 2 =

X = 2636

C mau n

SHIFT 1 5 1 =

n = 100

Ky vong M(X)

SHIFT 1 5 2 =

X = 26.36


o lech mau S

SHIFT 1 5 3 =

xn = 7.4452

o lech mau hieu

chnh S

SHIFT 1 5 4 =

xn 1 = 7.4827

b) oi vi loai may tnh CASIO 500 va 570ES:

Thao tac

Phng sai mau S = (7, 4452)2

Phng sai mau hieu chnh S2 = (7, 4827)2

14

X n
i

M(X) = X

 = x
S
n

S = xn 1

5. c lng iem
5.1. nh ngha: Xet am ong X co ac so cha biet ( la
ky vong, phng sai hay t le). T mau (X1,X2,, Xn), ta a ra ai
lng ngau nhien  =  (X , X ,..., X ) e tnh xap x :
1

 .

Trong V du 4.2 ta a tm c:


Ta goi la mot c lng iem cua . c lng nay c goi la
khong chech neu ang thc sau c thoa:

M( ) = .
Lu y rang trong c lng iem ta co sai so la  . Trong c
lng khong chech ta co sai so trung bnh cua c lng la:

M(  ) = M() M( ) = = 0.
Nh vay, c lng khong chech la c lng co sai so trung bnh
bang 0. ieu nay khong co ngha la c lng khong chech khong
co sai so ma ch cho thay rang c lng khong chech khong co s
sai lech han ve mot pha.
5.2. c lng iem:
Trong cac muc trc, ta a tnh xap x cac ac so am ong
bi cac ac trng mau. Nhng ket qua at c cho thay:
Ky vong mau
am ong:

X la c lng khong chech cua ky vong

= D( X ) S
2

Fn la c lng khong chech cua t le am

11-15
8

Ta c lng :
Gia tr trung bnh cua X la

p Fn

15-19
9

19-23
20

23-27
16

27-31
16

31-35
13

35-39
18

15

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= 26,36 (cm).

M(X) X
Phng sai cua X la
D(X)

S 2 = 55,9903 (cm 2 ).

T le san pham loai B la

p

5.3. V du: e khao sat ch tieu X cua mot loai san pham,
ngi ta quan sat mot mau va co ket qua sau:
X(cm)
So san pham

X = 26,36 (cm).
2
2
Phng sai hieu chnh cua X la S = 55,9903 (cm ).
T le mau san pham loai B la Fn = 17%.
Ky vong mau cua X la

= M (X ) X

Phng sai mau hieu chnh S2 la c lng khong chech

cua phng sai am ong:
T le mau
ong:

Nhng san pham co ch tieu X t 19 cm tr xuong c xep vao

loai B. Hay c lng gia tr trung bnh, phng sai cua ch tieu
X va t le san pham loai B.
Giai

Fn = 17%.

5.4. V du: e khao sat trong lng cua mot loai vat nuoi,
ngi ta quan sat mot mau va co ket qua sau:
X(kg)
So con

110-117
28

117-124
29

124-131
35

131-138
46

138-145
36

145-152
7

152-159
8

Nhng con co trong lng t 145kg tr len c xep vao loai A.

a) Hay c lng trong lng trung bnh, phng sai cua X va
t le con loai A.
b) at Z = -10X + 5. Hay c lng ky vong va phng sai cua
Z.

16

 Ky vong:
M(Z) = M(-10X + 5) = M(-10X) + M(5) = -10M(X) + 5
-10 X + 5 -10.130,6852 + 5 = -1301,852 (kg).

Giai
Trc het ta thay cac khoang xi- xi+1 bang gia tr trung bnh cua
hai au mut

x'i =

xi + xi +1
2

113,5
28

Xi
ni
Ta co:

120,5
29

127,5
35

134,5
46

141,5
36

148,5
7

Phng sai:
D(Z) = D(-10X + 5) = D(-10X) + D(5) = (-10)2D(X)
100S2 100.125,8538 = 12585,38 (kg2)

155,5
8

6. c lng khoang

n = 189;

X n
i

=24699, 5;

Ky vong mau cua X la

X=

n i = 3251519, 25.

1
X in i = 130, 6852(kg).
n

Phng sai mau cua X la:

2 = 1
S
X i2ni X 2 =(11,1887)2 = 125,1879(kg 2 ).
n

Phng sai mau hieu chnh cua X la:

S2 =

6.1. nh ngha: Xet am ong X co ac so cha biet ( la

ky vong hay t le). Vi moi = 1 - (0 < < 1 kha be), t mau
(X1,X2,, Xn), ta a ra hai ai lng ngau nhien
 1 =  1 (X , X ,..., X ) va  2 =  2 (X , X ,..., X ) sao cho xac suat e
1

 1  2 bang :

P( 1  2 ) = .
Minh hoa:

n 2
S = (11, 2185)2 = 125, 8538(kg 2 ).
n 1

T le mau cua X la

Fn =

m
15
=
= 0, 0794 = 7, 94%.
n 189

v trong n = 189 con co m = 7 + 8 = 15 con co trong lng t

145kg tr len, ngha la co 15 con loai A.

Ta goi ( 1 ;  2 ) la mot c lng khoang cua vi o tin cay

.
a)

Ta c lng:
Trong lng trung bnh cua mot con vat la
M(X) X = 130, 6852(kg).

Goi  la c lng khong chech cua . c lng khoang oi

xng cua vi o tin cay la mot c lng khoang co dang
( ;  + ) vi > 0, sao cho:

Phng sai cua X la

D(X) S2 = 125, 8538 (kg 2 ).
T le con loai A la

b)

p Fn = 7, 94%.

P(  + ) = .
Minh hoa:

Vi Z = -10X + 5, ta co :

17

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18

V du: Tra bang phan phoi Student ta co:

t k

k
8 0,05 2,306
12 0,02 2,681
20 0,01 2,845

Trong c lng khoang oi xng ( ;  + ) , ta goi la o

chnh xac. Chu y rang neu cang ln th c lng khoang cang
dai, cung cap cho ta t thong tin ve ac so nen tnh chnh xac
cang thap; ngc lai neu cang nho th c lng khoang cang
ngan, cung cap cho ta nhieu thong tin ve ac so nen tnh
chnh xac cua c lng cang cao. Nh vay, trong c lng khoang,
neu o chnh xac cang ln th o tin cay cang cao; neu o
chnh xac cang nho th o tin cay cang thap.

6.3. Phan phoi cua t le mau:

Xet am ong X vi t le p. Ta a biet t le mau Fn la ai
lng ngau nhien co ky vong la p va phng sai la

xet trng hp c mau ln, do o theo nh ly gii han trung tam,

Fn co phan phoi chuan, v vay:

6.2. Phan phoi cua ky vong mau:

Fn N ( p,

Xet am ong X vi ky vong = M(X) va phng sai

2 = D(X). Ta a biet ky vong mau X la ai lng ngau nhien co
ky vong la va phng sai la
cua

X nh sau:

Trng hp
n 30

Phng sai 2
a biet

X co phan phoi chuan

Cha biet
n < 30
X co phan phoi chuan

. T ay, ta co luat phan phoi

Luat phan phoi cua

X co phan phoi chuan

a biet

X co phan phoi chuan

X
Tn1 =
S/ n

Cha biet

ngha la

X N ( ,

)
n
S2
X N ( , )
n
X N ( ,

2
n

Trng hp 1: n 30; 2 a biet.

Trong trng hp nay, X co phan phoi chuan:

X N ( ,

2
n

Tra bang gia tr cua ham Laplace ta tm c gia tr z thoa

Chu y: Neu Tk co phan phoi Student vi k bac t do th vi

(0 < < 1) va mot so nguyen k, ta tm c gia tr

P( X X + ) = .

trong o X la ky vong mau.

2) Li giai: Ta chia bai toan thanh 4 trng hp tuy theo
phan phoi cua ky vong mau X :

co phan phoi Student

vi (n-1) bac t do

moi

pq
)
n

6.4. c lng khoang cho ky vong

1) Bai toan c lng khoang oi xng: Xet am ong X
co ky vong = M(X) cha biet. Vi moi = 1 (0 < < 1 kha be),
hay da vao mau (X1, X2,, Xn) e a ra c lng khoang cho
ky vong co dang ( X ; X + ) , > 0, vi o tin cay ,

pq
. Ta ch
n

tk

sao cho:

1
=
. Khi o theo Qui tac k-sigma trong Chng 2, ve
2
2
phan phoi chuan, bang cach chon k = z ta co:
(z ) =

P(| Tk |> tk ) = .
19

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20

P(| X | z

) = 2(z ) = .

(X z

Chu y rang:

| X | z

| X | z
z
X z
n
n
n
n

X z
X + z
n
n

Do o

P(X z

) = .
X + z
n
n

Vay trong trng hp nay, ta co c lng khoang cho ky vong =

M(X) vi o tin cay = 1 - la:

(X z

; X + z
)
n
n

vi

1
(z ) =
=
2
2

; X + z
)
n
n

Tn1 =

(X z

vi

1
=
2
2

do. Vi = 1 - ,

tra bang phan phoi Student ta tm c gia tr

tk sao cho:

P(| Tk |> tk ) = .
ngha la:
| X |
S
P(| Tk | t k ) = 1 = P(
t k ) = P(| X | t k
) = .
S/ n
n

T ay, ly luan hoan toan tng t trng hp 1 ta co:

P( X tk

S
S
X + tk
) = .
n
n

Vay trong trng hp nay, ta co c lng khoang cho ky vong =

M(X) vi o tin cay = 1 - la:

trong o

S
S
; X + t k
)
n
n

tk c xac nh t bang phan phoi Student vi k = n

1 va = 1 - .
Tom lai, ta co:

vi S2 la phng sai mau a hieu chnh. Do o trong trng hp

nay, ta co c lng khoang cho ky vong = M(X) vi o tin cay
= 1 - tng t nh trng hp 1 nhng c thay bang S:

S
S
; X + z
)
n
n

X
S/ n

co phan phoi Student vi k = n - 1 bac t

(X t k

X co phan phoi chuan:

S2
X N ( , )
n

(z ) =

Trng hp 4: n < 30; X co phan phoi chuan, 2 cha biet.

Trong trng hp nay

Trng hp 2: n 30; 2 cha biet.

Trong trng hp nay,

vi

1
(z ) =
=
2
2
2

Trng hp 3: n < 30; X co phan phoi chuan, a biet.

Trong trng hp nay, X co phan phoi chuan giong nh
trng hp 1. Do o ta co c lng khoang cho ky vong = M(X)
vi o tin cay = 1 - giong nh trng 1:

21

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BANG 1A
C LNG KHOANG CHO KY VONG = M(X) (O TIN CAY = 1 - )
Trng hp
n 30

Phng sai 2
a biet

Cong thc

(X z

Cha biet
n < 30 va X co phan
phoi chuan

(X z

a biet

(X z

Cha biet

(X t k

n
S
n

22

; X + z

n
S

; X + z
)
n
n
S
S
; X + t k
)
n
n

z thoa (z) = (1 - )/2 = /2 tra t Bang gia tr ham Laplace

t vi k = n-1 va = 1 - tra t Bang Phan phoi Student

; X + z

(X z

Chu y: Tra Bang gia tr ham Laplace e xac dnh z thoa

1
(z ) =
=
ta c:
2
2

= 1-
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%

(z) = /2
0,45
0,455
0,46
0,465
0,47
0,475
0,48
0,485
0,49
0,495

z
1,65
1,70
1,75
1,81
1,88
1,96
2,06
2,17
2,33
2,58

3) V du: e khao sat ch tieu X cua mot loai san pham, ngi
ta quan sat mot mau va co ket qua sau:
X(cm)
So san pham

11-15 15-19 19-23 23-27 27-31 31-35 35-39

8
9
20
16
16
13
18

Nhng san pham co ch tieu X t 19cm tr xuong c xep vao

loai B.
a) c lng gia tr trung bnh cua ch tieu X vi o tin cay 95%.
b) c lng gia tr trung bnh cua ch tieu X cua nhng san
pham loai B vi o tin cay 99% (Gia s X co phan phoi chuan).
Giai
a) ay la bai toan c lng khoang cho ky vong = M(X) vi o
tin cay = 1- = 95% = 0,95.
Vi cac so lieu tren, trong V du 4.2, ta a tm c:
C mau n = 100.
X = 26,36 (cm).

S = (7,4827) (cm ).
2

S
S
; X + z
)
n
n

trong o (z) = /2 = 0,95/2 = 0,475. Tra bang gia tr ham

Laplace ta c z = 1,96.
Vay c lng khoang la:

(26,36 1,96

7,4827
7,4827
; 26,36 + 1,96
) = (24,89; 27,83).
100
100

Noi cach khac, vi o tin cay 95%, gia tr trung bnh cua ch tieu X
t 24,89cm en 27,83 cm.
b) ay la bai toan c lng khoang cho ky vong B = M(XB) cua
ch tieu X = XB cua nhng san pham loai B vi o tin cay = 1-
= 99% = 0,99.
Ta lap bang so lieu cua XB:
17
XBi 13
nBi 8
9
T bang tren ta tnh c:

nB = 17;

X Bi nBi =257; X Bi nBi =3.953.

2

Ky vong mau cua XB la

XB =

1
nB

Phng sai mau cua XB la:

 2B = 1
S
nB

X Bi2nBi X B2 =(1, 9965)2 (cm2 ).

Phng sai mau hieu chnh cua XB la:

S2B =

nB  2
SB = (2, 0580)2 (cm 2 ).
nB 1

V nB < 30, XB co phan phoi chuan, B2 = D(XB) cha biet, nen

ta co cong thc c lng khoang cho ky vong:

V n 30, 2 = D(X) cha biet nen ta co cong thc c lng

khoang cho ky vong:
23

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X BinBi = 15,1176 (cm).

24

( X B tk
trong o

Chang han khi xet trng hp n 30; 2 a biet, ta co

phoi chuan:

SB
S
; X B + tk B )
nB
nB

X N ( ,

tk c xac nh t bang phan phoi Student vi

k = nB1=16 va = 1 - = 1 0,99 = 0,01. Tra bang phan phoi

Student ta c

tk = 2,921.

Tra bang gia tr cua ham Laplace ta tm c gia tr z2 thoa

1 2
. Khi o theo cong thc ve gia tr cua LNN co phan
2
phoi chuan trong chng 2, bang cach chon k = z2 ta co:

2,0580
2,0580
; 15,1176 + 2,921
) = (13,66; 16,58).
17
17

Noi cach khac, vi o tin cay 99%, gia tr trung bnh cua ch tieu X
cua san pham loai B t 13,66cm en 16,58cm.
4) Bai toan c lng khoang ben trai, ben phai: Xet
am ong X co ky vong = M(X) cha biet. Vi moi = 1 - (0
< < 1 kha be), hay da vao mau (X1, X2,, Xn) e a ra:
c lng khoang ben trai cho ky vong
co dang
(; X + ) , > 0, vi o tin cay , ngha la
P( X + ) = .

c lng khoang ben phai cho ky vong

(X ; +; ) , > 0, vi o tin cay , ngha la

co dang

P( X + z2

X la ky vong mau.

Chu y:
Khi co c lng khoang ben trai cho ky vong vi o tin
cay la (; X + ) , ta noi gia tr toi a cua ky vong o tin cay
la X + .
Khi co c lng khoang ben phai cho ky vong vi o tin
cay la (X ; +; ) , ta noi gia tr toi thieu cua ky vong o tin

) = P( z2
X) = (+) (
n
n

5) Li giai: Ta chia bai toan thanh 4 trng hp tuy theo

phan phoi cua ky vong mau X tng t nh trng hp oi xng.

(; X + z2

)
n

vi

(z2 ) =

1 2
2

Tng t, c lng khoang ben phai cho ky vong vi o tin

cay = 1 - la:

(X z2

; +)
n

vi

(z2 ) =

1 2
2

oi vi cac trng hp khac ta ly luan tng t. Tom lai ta co ket

qua sau:
BANG 1B
C LNG KHOANG BEN TRAI CHO KY VONG = M(X) (O TIN CAY = 1 - )

Trng hp
n 30

Phng sai 2
a biet
Cha biet

Cong thc

(; X + z2
(; X + z2

a biet

(; X + z2

Cha biet

(; X + t 2k

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)
n
S
)
n

)
n
S
)
n

z2 thoa (z2) = (1 - 2)/2 ( = 1 - ) tra t Bang gia tr ham Laplace

t 2 vi k = n-1 va = 1 - tra t Bang Phan phoi Student

25

)
n
)

n
1 1 2
= (+) (z2 ) = (+ ) + (z2 ) = +
=1 =
2
2

n < 30 va X co phan
phoi chuan

cay la X .

( z2

Suy ra c lng khoang ben trai cho ky vong vi o tin cay

= 1 - la:

P( X ) = .

trong o

(z2 ) =

Vay c lng khoang la:

(15,1176 2,921

X co phan

26

BANG 1C
C LNG KHOANG BEN PHAI CHO KY VONG = M(X) (O TIN CAY = 1 - )

Phng sai 2
a biet

Trng hp
n 30

Cong thc

(X z2

Cha biet
n < 30 va X co phan
phoi chuan

(X z2

a biet

(X z2

Cha biet

(X t 2k

; +)

n
S
; +)
n

; +)
n
S
; +)
n

z2 thoa (z2) = (1 - 2)/2 ( = 1 - ) tra t Bang gia tr ham Laplace

t 2k vi

k = n-1 va = 1 - tra t Bang Phan phoi Student

6) V du: Tiep tuc xet lai V du tren.

c) c lng gia tr trung bnh toi a cua ch tieu X vi o tin
cay 95%.
d) c lng gia tr trung bnh toi thieu cua ch tieu X cua
nhng san pham loai B vi o tin cay 99% (Gia s X co phan phoi
chuan).
Giai
c) Ta co o tin cay = 1 - = 95% = 0,95 ( = 0,05).
Ta a tm c:
C mau n = 100.
X = 26,36 (cm).

S 2 = (7,4827) 2 (cm 2 ).

C mau n B = 17.
X B = 15,1176 (cm) .
S2B = (2, 0580)2 (cm2 ).

V nB < 30, XB co phan phoi chuan, B2 = D(XB) cha biet, nen

ta co cong thc c lng khoang ben phai cho ky vong vi o tin
cay = 1 - la:
S
(X B t 2k B ; +)
nB
trong o t 2k c xac nh t bang phan phoi Student vi k = nB
1=16

va

t 2k = 2, 583 .

2 =

0,02. Tra bang phan phoi Student ta c

Vay gia tr trung bnh toi thieu cua ch tieu X cua nhng san
pham loai B vi o tin cay 99% la:
S
2, 0580
= 13, 8283(cm)
X B t 2k B = 15,1176 2, 583
nB
17
6.5. c lng khoang cho t le
1) Bai toan c lng khoang oi xng: Xet am ong X
co t le p cha biet . Vi moi = 1 - (0 < < 1 kha be), hay
da vao mau (X1, X2,, Xn) e a ra c lng khoang cho t le
p co dang ( Fn ; Fn + ) , > 0, vi o tin cay , ngha la

P(Fn p Fn + ) =
trong o Fn la t le mau.

V n 30, = D(X) cha biet nen ta co cong thc c lng

khoang ben trai cho ky vong:
(; X + z2

S
)
n

trong o (z2) = (1- 2)/2 = 0,90/2 = 0,45. Tra bang gia tr ham
Laplace ta c z2 = 1,65. Suy ra gia tr trung bnh toi a cua ch
tieu X vi o tin cay 95% la:
S
7, 4827
X + z2
= 26, 36 + 1, 65
= 27, 5946(cm)
n
100
d) Ta co o tin cay = 1 - = 99% = 0,99 ( = 0,01).
Ta a tm c:
27

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2) Li giai: Ta ch xet trng hp c mau kha ln. Khi o

phan trc ta a biet t le mau Fn co phan phoi chuan:
Fn N(p,

pq
).
n

Tra bang gia tr cua ham Laplace ta tm c

1
(z ) =
= . Khi o
2
2

gia tr z thoa

theo Qui tac k-sigma trong chng 2 ve

phan phoi chuan, bang cach chon k = z ta co:

P(|Fn p| z

28

pq
) = 2(z ) = .
n

Ma

|Fn p| z

pq
pq
pq
pq
|p Fn | z
-z
p Fn z
n
n
n
n
pq
pq
p Fn + z
n
n

Fn - z

Vay c lng khoang la:

nen
P(Fn z

0, 0794(1 0, 0794)
0, 0794(1 0, 0794)
; 0, 0794 + 2,17
)
189
189
= (0, 0367; 0,1221) = (3, 67%; 12, 21%)

(0, 0794 2,17

pq
pq
) = .
p Fn + z
n
n

V n kha ln nen ta xap x p Fn va q 1- Fn. Khi o

P(Fn z

Noi cach khac, vi o tin cay 97%, t le con loai A t 3,67% en

12,21%.

Fn (1 Fn )
F (1 Fn )
p Fn + z n
) = .
n
n

Vay ta co:
BANG 2A
C LNG KHOANG CHO T LE p = P(A) (O TIN CAY = 1- )

Fn (1 Fn )
F (1 Fn )
; Fn + z n
)
n
n
z thoa (z) = (1 - )/2 = /2 tra t Bang gia tr ham Laplace
(Fn z

110-117
28

117-124
29

124-131
35

131-138
46

138-145
36

> 0, vi o tin cay , ngha la

P( Fn + ) = .

> 0, vi o tin cay , ngha la

145-152
7

152-159
8

Nhng con co trong lng t 145kg tr len c xep vao loai A.

Hay c t le con vat loai A vi o tin cay 97%.
Giai
ay la bai toan c lng khoang cho t le p cac con loai A vi
o tin cay = 1- = 97% = 0,97.
Ta co cong thc c lng khoang :
(Fn z

4) Bai toan c lng khoang ben trai, ben phai: Xet

am ong X co t le p cha biet. Vi moi = 1 - (0 < < 1 kha
be), hay da vao mau (X1, X2,, Xn) e a ra:
c lng khoang ben trai cho t le p co dang (; Fn + ) ,

c lng khoang ben phai cho t le p co dang (Fn ; +) ,

3) V du: e khao sat trong lng cua mot loai vat nuoi,
ngi ta quan sat mot mau va co ket qua sau:
X(kg)
So con

Trong n = 189 con co m = 7+8=15 con co trong lng t

145kg tr len nen co m = 15 con loai A. Do o t le mau cac con
loai A la:
Fn = m/n = 15/189 = 0,0794.

Fn (1 Fn )
F (1 Fn )
; Fn + z n
)
n
n

trong o (z) = (1- )/2 = /2 = 0,97/2 = 0,485.

Tra bang gia tr ham Laplace ta c z = 2,17.
C mau n = 189.
29

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P( Fn ) = .

Chu y:
Khi co c lng khoang ben trai cho t le p vi o tin cay
la (; Fn + ) , ta noi gia tr toi a cua t le p o tin cay la
Fn + .

Khi co c lng khoang ben phai cho t le p vi o tin cay

la (Fn ; +) , ta noi gia tr toi thieu cua t le p o tin cay la
Fn .

5) Li giai: Ly luan tng t nh khi c lng ky vong ta co:

BANG 2B
C LNG KHOANG BEN TRAI CHO T LE P = P(A) (O TIN CAY = 1- )

(; Fn + z2

Fn (1 Fn )
)
n

z2 thoa (z2) = (1 - 2)/2 ( = 1 - ) tra t Bang gia tr ham Laplace

30

BANG 2C
C LNG KHOANG BEN PHAI CHO T LE P = P(A) (O TIN CAY = 1- )

Fn (1 Fn )
; +)
n
z2 thoa (z2) = (1 - 2)/2 ( = 1 - ) tra t Bang gia tr ham Laplace
(Fn z2

6) V du: Tiep tuc xet lai v du tren.

c) c lng t le toi a con loai A vi o tin cay 96%.
d) c lng t le toi thieu con loai A vi o tin cay 98%.
Giai
Ta a tm c:
C mau n = 189.
T le mau con loai A la: Fn = 0,0794.
c) Ta co o tin cay = 1 - = 96% = 0,96 ( = 0,04).
Cong thc c lng khoang ben trai cho t le p con loai A vi
o tin cay = 1 - = 0,96 la:
(; Fn + z2

Fn (1 Fn )
)
n

trong o (z2) = (1- 2)/2 = 0,92/2 = 0,46. Tra bang gia tr ham
Laplace ta c z2 = 1,75. Suy ra t le toi a con loai A la:
Fn + z2

Fn (1 Fn )
0, 0794(1 0, 0794)
= 0, 0794 + 1,75
= 0,1138 = 11, 38%
n
189
.

d)

Ta co o tin cay = 1 - = 98% = 0,98 ( = 0,02).

Cong thc c lng khoang ben phai cho t le p con loai A vi
o tin cay = 1 - = 0,98 la:
(Fn z2

Fn (1 Fn )
; + )
n

trong o (z2) = (1- 2)/2 = 0,96/2 = 0,48. Tra bang gia tr ham
Laplace ta c z2 = 2,06. Suy ra t le toi thieu con loai A la:
Fn z2

Fn (1 Fn )
0, 0794(1 0, 0794)
= 0, 0794 2, 06
= 0, 0389 = 3, 89%.
n
189

31

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7. Cac ch tieu chnh cua bai toan c lng khoang oi

xng
7.1. M au: Trong bai toan c lng khoang co 3 ch tieu
chnh la:
C mau n.
o chnh xac .
o tin cay = 1 - .
Neu biet c 2 trong 3 ch tieu tren th co the suy ra ch tieu con
lai.
7.2. Trng hp c lng khoang cho ky vong
Ta xet trng hp pho bien nhat la n 30; 2 = D(X) cha
biet. Khi o, ta co cong thc c lng khoang cho ky vong =
M(X) vi o tin cay = 1- :
(X z

S
S
1
; X + z
) vi (z ) =
= .
2
2
n
n

Do o ta co cong thc o chnh xac cua c lng la:

= z

S
n

(1)

1) Neu biet c mau n va o tin cay th ta tra bang gia

tr ham Laplace e tm z thoa (z) = /2. T o ta tm c o
chnh xac theo (1).
2) Neu biet c mau n va o chnh xac th t (1) ta suy ra
z =

n
S

Tra bang gia tr ham Laplace ta tm c (z). T o suy ra o tin

cay = 2(z).
3) Neu biet o chnh xac va o tin cay = 1- th t (1)
ta suy ra:

z S
n=

32

Giai

z S
co the khong la so nguyen, hn na, ta a biet

Chu y rang

trong c lng,
o trong thc te

Ta a tm c:
C mau n = 100.
X = 26,36 (cm).

c mau cang ln th c lng cang chnh xac. Do

ta co yeu cau:
n n1
(2)

trong o n1 = (z S / )2 la so nguyen nho nhat ln hn hay bang

(z S / )2 . Goi n0 la c mau ang xet, ta co:
Neu n1 n0 th ta khong can ieu tra them v c mau
ang co a thoa (2).
Neu n1 > n0 th ta can ieu tra them t nhat la n1 - n0 so
lieu na e am bao tong so lieu la n1 thoa (2).

a)

S 2 = (7,4827) 2 (cm 2 ).

Yeu cau cua bai toan: Xac nh o tin cay = 1- .

Gia thiet: - c khoang cho ky vong cua X.
- o chnh xac = 1,8cm.

V n 30, 2 = D(X) cha biet nen ta co cong thc tnh o chnh

xac cua c lng:

BANG 3A
XAC NH CAC CH TIEU CHNH
TRNG HP C LNG KHOANG CHO KY VONG = M(X)
Ch tieu a biet
Ch tieu can tm
Cong thc
- C mau n
- o tin cay = 1-

o chnh xac

- C mau n
- o chnh xac

o tin cay = 1-

= z

S
n

= 2(

n
)
S

2
- o tin cay = 1-
C mau n
n ( z S / )

- o chnh xac
z thoa (z) = (1 - )/2 = /2 tra t Bang gia tr ham Laplace (x)

2
2
( z S / ) la so nguyen nho nhat ( z S / )

V du: e khao sat ch tieu X cua mot loai san pham, ngi ta
quan sat mot mau va co ket qua sau:
X(cm)
So san pham

11-15 15-19 19-23 23-27 27-31 31-35 35-39

8
9
20
16
16
13
18

a) Neu muon c lng gia tr trung bnh cua ch tieu X cua

loai san pham tren vi o chnh xac 1,8cm th se at c o tin
cay la bao nhieu?
b) Neu muon c lng gia tr trung bnh cua ch tieu X cua
loai san pham tren vi o chnh xac 1,5cm va o tin cay 97% th
phai ieu tra them t nhat bao nhieu san pham na?

= z

S
n

trong o (z) = (1- )/2 = /2 . Suy ra

z =

n 1, 8. 100
=
= 2, 41
S
7, 4827

Tra bang gia tr ham Laplace ta c

o tin cay la:

= 2(z ) = 2(2, 41) = 2.0, 4920 = 98, 40%.

Vay o tin cay at c la 98,40%.
b)

Yeu cau cua

Gia thiet: -

bai toan: Xac nh c mau.

c khoang cho ky vong cua X
o chnh xac = 1,5cm.
o tin cay = 1- = 97% = 0,97.

V n 30, 2 = D(X) cha biet nen ta co cong thc tnh o chnh

xac cua c lng:

= z

S
n

trong o (z) = (1- )/2 = 0,97/2 = 0, 485. Tra bang gia tr ham
Laplace ta c z = 2,17. Suy ra

33

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34

z S
n=

Thc te yeu cau:

trong o n1 = z2 Fn (1 Fn ) / 2 la so nguyen nho nhat ln hn hay

bang z2 Fn (1 Fn ) / 2 . Goi n0 la c mau ang xet, ta co:
Neu n1 n0 th ta khong can ieu tra them v c mau
ang co a thoa (2).

2,17.7, 4827
z S
n =
117,18.
1, 5

Gia tr n nguyen nho nhat thoa bat ang thc tren la n1 = 118. V
n1 = 118 > 100 (100 la c mau ang co) nen ta can ieu tra them
t nhat la 118 100 = 18 san pham na.
7.3. Trng hp c lng khoang cho t le
Ta ch xet trng hp n kha ln (n 30). Khi o, ta co cong
thc c lng khoang cho t le p vi o tin cay = 1- :
(Fn z

Fn (1 Fn )
F (1 Fn )
; Fn + z n
)
n
n

vi

(z ) =

1
= ..
2
2

Do o ta co cong thc o chnh xac cua c lng la:

Fn (1 Fn )
n

= z

(1)

1) Neu biet c mau n va o tin cay th ta tra bang gia

tr ham Laplace e tm z thoa (z) = /2. T o ta tm c o
chnh xac theo (1).
2) Neu biet c mau n va o chnh xac th t (1) ta suy ra
z =

n
Fn (1 Fn )

Tra bang gia tr ham Laplace ta tm c (z). T o suy ra o tin

cay = 2(z).
3) Neu biet o chnh xac va o tin cay = 1- th t (1)
ta suy ra:
n=

Chu y rang

z2 Fn (1 Fn )
2

z2 Fn (1 Fn )
2

co the khong la so nguyen, hn na, ta

a biet trong c lng, c mau cang ln th c lng cang chnh

xac. Do o trong thc te ta co yeu cau:
n n1
(2)
35

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Neu n1 > n0 th ta can ieu tra them t nhat la n1 - n0

so lieu na e am bao tong so lieu la n1 thoa (2).
BANG 3B
XAC NH CAC CH TIEU CHNH
TRNG HP C LNG KHOANG CHO T LE p = P(A)
Ch tieu a biet
Ch tieu can tm
Cong thc
- C mau n
- o tin cay = 1-

o chnh xac

- C mau n
- o chnh xac

o tin cay = 1-

= z
= 2(

Fn (1 Fn )
n
n
)
Fn (1 Fn )

- o tin cay = 1-
C mau n
n z2 Fn (1 Fn ) / 2
- o chnh xac
z thoa (z) = (1 - )/2 = /2 tra t Bang gia tr ham Laplace (x)
2
2
z2 Fn (1 Fn ) / 2 la so nguyen nho nhat z Fn (1 Fn ) /

V du: e khao sat ch tieu X cua mot loai san pham, ngi ta
quan sat mot mau va co ket qua sau:
X(cm)
So san pham

11-15 15-19 19-23 23-27 27-31 31-35 35-39

8
9
20
16
16
13
18

Nhng san pham co ch tieu X t 19 cm tr

loai B.
a) Neu muon c lng t le san pham loai B
th se at c o tin cay la bao nhieu?
b) Neu muon c lng t le san pham loai B
va o tin cay 96% th phai ieu tra them t
pham na?

xuong c xep vao

vi o chnh xac 8%
vi o chnh xac 9%
nhat bao nhieu san

Giai
Ta co:
C mau n = 100.
T le mau san pham loai B la Fn = m/n = 17/100 = 0,17.
a) Yeu cau cua bai toan: Xac nh o tin cay = 1- .
36

Gia thiet: - c khoang cho t le san pham loai B.

- o chnh xac = 8% = 0,08.
Ta co cong thc tnh o chnh xac cua c lng:
Fn (1 Fn )
n

= z

trong o (z) = /2 . Suy ra

z =

n
100
= 0, 08.
= 2,13.
Fn (1 Fn )
0,17(1 0,17)

Tra bang gia tr ham Laplace ta c

o tin cay la

= 2(z ) = 2(2,13) = 2.0, 4834 = 96, 68%.

Vay o tin cay at c la 96,68%.
b)

Yeu cau cua bai toan: Xac nh c mau.

Gia thiet: - c khoang cho t le san pham loai B.
- o chnh xac = 9% = 0,09.
- o tin cay = 1- = 96% = 0,96.

Ta co cong thc tnh o chnh xac cua c lng:

Fn (1 Fn )
n

= z

trong o (z) = (1- ) /2 = 0,96/2 = 0,48. Tra bang gia tr ham

Laplace ta c z = 2,06. Suy ra
n=

Thc te yeu cau:

n

z2 Fn (1 Fn )

z2 Fn (1 Fn )
2

2, 062.0,17(1 0,17)
73, 92.
0, 092

Gia tr n nguyen nho nhat thoa bat ang thc tren la n1 = 74.
V n1 = 74 < 100 (100 la c mau ang co) nen ta khong can ieu
tra them san pham na.

37

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BAI TAP CHNG 3

Bai 3.1: e khao sat trong lung X cua mot loai vat nuoi trong
nong trai, ngi ta quan sat mot mau va co ket qua sau:
X(kg)
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
So con
15
12
25
18
10
10
10
a) c lng trong lng trung bnh cua loai vat nuoi tren vi o
tin cay 96%.
b) Vi o tin cay 95%, trong lng trung bnh toi a cua loai vat
nuoi tren la bao nhieu? Toi thieu la bao nhieu?
c) Nhng con vat co trong lng t 60kg tr len c goi la nhng
con at tieu chuan. Hay c lng t le con at tieu chuan vi o
tin cay 95%.
d) Neu muon c lng t le con at tieu chuan vi o tin cay 99%
va o chnh xac 10% th can phai ieu tra them bao nhieu con vat
na?
e) Vi o tin cay 90%, t le con at tieu chuan toi a cua loai vat
nuoi tren la bao nhieu? Toi thieu la bao nhieu?
Bai 3.2: Can th 100 trai qut cua mot vn, ta co bang ket qua
sau :
X(g)
40
50 60 70 80 90 100 110
So trai
3
10 12 15 28 16 11
5
trong o X ch trong lng (n v tnh gam).
a) Hay c lng trong lng trung bnh cua mot trai qut trong
vn qut tren vi o tin cay 94%.
b) Nhng trai qut co trong lng X > 75g la trai loai I. Hay c
lng t le trai loai I trong vn qut tren vi o tin cay 95%.
c) Nhng trai qut co trong lng X < 65g la trai loai III. Hay c
lng trong lung trung bnh cua mot trai qut loai III trong vn
qut tren vi o tin cay 99% (Gia s X co phan phoi chuan).
Bai 3.3: e khao sat ch tieu X cua mot loai san pham cua x
nghiep I, ngi ta quan sat mot mau trong kho va co ket qua sau:
X(cm)
11-15 15-19 19-23 23-27 27-31 31-35 35-39
So spham
8
9
20
16
16
13
18
a) c lng gia tr trung bnh cua ch tieu X cua loai san pham
tren vi o tin cay 96%.
38

b) Neu c lng GTTB cua X vi o chnh xac 1,8cm th se at

c o tin cay la bao nhieu?
c) Neu c lng GTTB cua X vi o chnh xac 1,5cm va o tin
cay 99% th phai ieu tra them t nhat bao nhieu san pham na?
d) Nhng san pham co ch tieu X t 19cm tr xuong c goi la
nhng san pham loai B. c lng gia tr trung bnh cua ch tieu
X cua nhng san pham loai B vi o tin cay 98% (GS X co phan
phoi chuan).
e) Hay c lng t le san pham loai B vi o tin cay 92%. Bang
so lieu tren c chon ngau nhien t mot kho trong o co 1000
san pham loai B. Hay c lng so san pham trong kho vi o tin
cay 92%.
f) Neu c lng t le nhng sp loai B vi o chnh xac 6% th se
at c o tin cay la bao nhieu?
g) Neu c lng t le nhng san pham loai B vi o tin cay 96%
va o chnh xac 8% th can phai ieu tra them bao nhieu san
pham na?
h) Gia s trong kho e lan 1000 san pham cua x nghiep II va
trong 100 san pham lay t kho co 9 san pham cua x nghiep II.
Hay c lng so san pham cua x nghiep I co trong kho vi o tin
cay 82%.

Bai 3.4: e khao sat chieu cao X cua mot giong cay trong, ngi ta
quan sat mot mau va co ket qua sau:
X(cm)
So cay

95-105
10

105-115
10

115-125
15

125-135
30

135-145
10

145-155
10

155-165
15

f) Neu c lng t le nhng nhng cay cao vi o tin cay 95%

va o chnh xac 11% th can phai ieu tra them bao nhieu san
pham na?

Bai 3.5: Trai cay cua mot chu hang c ng trong cac sot, moi
sot 100 trai. Ngi ta kiem tra 50 sot th thay co 450 trai khong
at tieu chuan.
a) c lng t le trai khong at tieu chuan cua lo hang tren vi
o tin cay 95%.
b) Neu muon c lng t le trai khong at tieu chuan vi o chnh
xac 0,5% th se at c o tin cay la bao nhieu?
c) Neu muon c lng t le trai khong at tieu chuan vi o chnh
xac 1% va o tin cay 99% th phai ieu tra them t nhat bao nhieu
sot na?
Bai 3.6: e nghien cu nhu cau cua mot loai hang mot khu vc,
ngi ta khao sat 400 ho gia nh. Ket qua nh sau:
Nhu cau (kg/thang/ho)
So ho

0-1
10

1-2 2-3 3-4

35 86 132

4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8

78 31 18 10

Cho biet trong khu vc co 4000 ho.

a) c lng nhu cau trung bnh ve mat hang nay cua toan khu
vc trong mot nam vi o tin cay 95%.
b) Khi c lng nhu cau trung bnh ve mat hang nay cua toan
khu vc trong mot nam, neu ta muon at c o tin cay 99% va
o chnh xac la 4,8tan th can khao sat t nhat bao nhieu ho gia
nh?

a) c lng chieu cao trung bnh cua giong cay trong tren vi o
tin cay 96%.
b) Neu muon c lng chieu cao trung bnh cua giong cay trong
tren vi o tin cay 99% va o chnh xac 4 cm th can phai ieu tra
them bao nhieu cay na?
c) Neu c lng chieu cao trung bnh cua giong cay trong tren
vi o chnh xac 4,58cm th se at c o tin cay la bao nhieu?
d) Nhng cay trong co chieu cao t 135cm tr len c goi la
nhng cay cao. Hay c lng t le nhng cay caovi o tin cay
95%.
e) Neu c lng t le nhng nhng cay cao vi o chnh xac
10% th se at c o tin cay la bao nhieu?

Bai 3.8: Trc ky bau c tong thong ngi ta phong van ngau
nhien 1800 c tri th thay co 1180 ngi ung ho c tri A. Vi o
tin cay 99%, ho ng c vien A co the thu c toi thieu bao nhieu
phan tram so phieu bau? Va toi a la bao nhieu?

39

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Bai 3.7: e biet so lng ca trong ho ln ngi ta bat len 2000 con
anh dau xong roi tha chung xuong ho. Sau o ngi ta bat len 400
con va thay co 80 con c anh dau.
a) Vi o tin cay 95%, hay c lng so ca co trong ho.
b) c lng so ca toi a co trong ho vi o tin cay 96%.
c) c lng so ca toi thieu co trong ho vi o tin cay 94%.

Bai 3.9: Khao sat thu nhap va ty le thu nhap chi cho giao duc
350 ho gia nh, ta thu c cac so lieu bang sau:
X
10
20
30
40
50
Y
150 - 250
10
40
20
250 - 350
40
60
20
350 - 450
20
30
40
450 - 550
30
30
10
trong o : X la ty le thu nhap chi cho giao duc (tnh theo %)
Y la thu nhap bnh quan 1 ngi / thang cua mot ho (n
v tnh ngan ong)
a) c lng gia tr trung bnh cua ty le thu nhap chi cho giao duc
cua mot ho gia nh vi o tin cay 95% .
b) Nhng gia nh co thu nhap bnh quan ngi tren 450 la ho co
thu nhap cao. c lng ty le ho co thu nhap cao vi o tin cay
97%.
c) e c lng gia tr trung bnh cua ty le thu nhap chi cho giao
duc vi o chnh xac = 0,8% th am bao o tin cay la bao nhieu?
Bai 3.10: X(%) va Y(kg/mm2 ) la hai ch tieu chat lng cua mot
loai san pham. Quan sat mot so san pham ta co bang so lieu nh
sau:
X 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20
20-25
Y
120
7
130
12
8
10
140
20
15
2
150
19
16
9
5
160
8
3
San pham co ch tieu X 15% la loai A.
a) c lng t le san pham loai A o tin cay 95%.
b) c lng gia tr trung bnh ch tieu Y cua nhng san pham loai
A vi o tin cay 95% (Gia s Y co phan phoi chuan).
c) Neu muon c lng gia tr trung bnh cua ch tieu Y vi o
chnh xac 1,6 kg/mm2 th se am bao c o tin cay la bao nhieu?

41

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AP SO BAI TAP CHNG 3

3.1. a) 49,68kg - 54,24kg
b) 53,7850kg va 50,1350kg
c) 21,02%-38,98%
d) 40
e) 35,87% va 24,13%.
3.2. a) 73,94g - 80,46g
b) 50,40% - 69,60%
c)
49,68g57,52g
3.3. a) 24,82cm - 27,93 cm b) 98,40%.
c) 66
d) 13,83cm - 16,41cm
e) 10,43% - 23,57% va 4243 - 9587
f) 89,04%
g) 0
h)
6795
18342.
3.4. a) 127,24cm - 134,76cm b) 39
c) 98,82%
d) 25,65% - 44,35%
e) 96,42%
f) 0
g) 148,74cm - 154,11cm.
3.5. a) 8,21% - 9,79%
b) 79,5%
c) 5.
3.6. a) 166,9584tan - 180,5616tan
b) 1392.
3.7. a) 8362 12437
b) 12121
c) 8651.
3.8. 62,95% va 68,17%.
3.9. 28,7933% en 30,6353%
b) 15,36% - 24,64%
c)
91,08%.
3.10. a) 13,36% - 26,94%
b)150,8794kg/mm22
155,7872kg/mm
c) 92,92%.
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