Nhiovg ngudi dich + - NGUYEN VAN NGOC, Cir nhan Kinh 18 hoc, dich céc chuang: 4,2.3, 5, °7, 16 va oiai thich thuat ng NGUYEN VAN CONG, PTS. Kinh 18, dich cde chung : 6,7, 8, 15 HOANG VAN HOA, PTS. Kinh 18, ich cde chung : 9, 10, 11 HOANG YEN, PTS, Kinh 18, dich cc chang : 12, 13, 14, 16. TRAN DINH TOAN, Thac sTKinh té phat trign, dich chuong 4. Ngueihigu dinh NouyEN VAN Neoc Dich te nguyén bin = N. GREGORY MANKIW Harvard University MACROECONOMICS Second ediion WORTH PUBLISHER * New York 3.235 ERS 00-01-08 LOI NOI DAU Hién nay. ngay cang c6 nhiéu nguai mong muén hoc tép va nghién ‘cuu kinh té vi muc dich van cung vao cOng tac phan tich, hoach dinh chinh séich kinh 16 va hoat dong kinh doanh. Trén th) truting sach cle chung ta da xuat hién nhiéu cudn sch nu kinh t& hoc, kinh té vi m6, kinh t& vi md, v.v... Tuy nhién, 36 luang tén sach, tac gid van con qué it i so vai chiing Jogi phong pha va da dang 6 céc nudc phucng Tay. Hon nniza, khong phdi tét cd cc cuén sch hién dang luu hénh déu dép ing duoc yéu céu cila sinh vién, can b6 nghién ctu va nhdng ngubi lam cong téc thy tién, néu xét vé phuong dién dich thud, phuang phap irinh bay, keét cau, néi dung v.v. Cudn sch ma chiing {67 gidi thiéu vai ban doc c6 tua a8 “Kinh 16 vi mo" I m6t trong ahiing cuén giéo khoa ndi tiéng nhat vé kinh t& vi ms. NO da nhén cuge gidi thudng trao cho cuén kinh té vi mé hay nhét. Tac gid cuén sacn nay I Gregory Mankiw, gido su truting dai hoc Ha-vot. Ong 1 mot trong nhing nha kinh t& vi m6 tr8, dai dign xudt sde cho trying phai Keynes mdi. Cuén sich duge gido su ciia 350 trang dai hoc 4 27 nue ding fam sach giéo khoa vé kinh t& vi m6. Cho dén nay, nd a duge dich ra 6 thir tiéng (Ove, ¥, Nhét Ban, BS Bao Nha, Tay Ban Nha va Nga). ‘Ngay tir lén xust ban déu tién, cuBn sich 8 duac dng ééo ban doc, ‘ae biBt sinh vién cdc chuyén nganh kink t6 va quén tri kinh doanh, nhiét {it hoan nghénh. Cuén sich dupe dénh gid cao tnudc hét vi nb chi ra mét pphuong phap ligp cn mai trong kink té vi m6. Cac cudn giéo Khea truyén thing VB kinh t& vi m6 thutng tép trung trinh bay ly thuyélt v8 cae bién dong kinh t6 ngan hn, vi diéu nay tao ra co sd Iy thuyét dB hiéu duoc ‘mus tidu, c6ng cu, co ché, tac d6ng cila chinh séch tai chinh va tin 16 Tuy nhién, phutong php tiép cén nay khéng gidp cho sinh vién higu duoc toaa dién énh huréng cia nhiéu chin séch khée nhau, nhu tac dOng cla ching (i tang trang kinh 16, 1) 16 that nghiép tr nhién, 1am phat kinhpién va ng chinh phi. 86 gidi quyét mau thudn trén, tac gi da tim cach vat duoc sit hai hoa gia cac chi d& ngén hen va dai han trong kinh 16 vimé. Mot uu diém quan trong khac cla cutn sch fa, trong khi thita nhén vai tr ndi cia nhing ¥ tuBng, phuong phap tidp cén ma Keynes va tru@ing phai Keynes m3i si? dung, nd da thanh céng trong vige kau nd, he thong hnoa nhidu déng gop quy bau cia céc nha kinh 16 c6 didn, tn o6 din va 6 din mei L6i vn trong sang, chat ch, cd dong va khuc triét cdia tac gid cong 14 mol uy diém eda cusn sach. Tuy nhién, du nay lai gay khong Mt Kho than cho cong tac bién dich. 08 dm bao chat lugng ban dich 8 mic cao rindt, ching ti d8 tép hop duge mt d6i ngu bién dich cb tinh dO ngoai ngit va chuyén mén. Tat cd dich gid déu 1a cin b6 giang day co kinh nghiém cilia BG mén Kinh t& vi md, truéng Bai hoc Kinh té Quéc dan Ha Néi, nhiéu nguéi dé dugc di hoc tap va nghién cuu d Anh va My. Sau khi hhoan thann ban dich, chung 161 da t6 chic thio lun ting chuong va sta hoa nhirg diém chura chinh xac. Tuy nhién, vi nhiéu ly do, chéc chén ‘ban dich cia chung (6i cén nhiéu thiéu sot, rt mong duge ban doc gop va bé sung. Theo chung ti, cuBn sich nay c6 thé ding lam tai ligu tham khéo uy bau cho giéng vién va sinh vién kinh {8 6 ca truting dai hoc, of 6 be dai hee vé sau dai hoc. Ban doc d8 hoc qua mot khoa co ban vé kinh 18 vi mé cb thé dé dang hiéu dugc ndi dung cuén sach. Nhung ban doc in déu tian lam quen voi mén kinh (6 vi m6 s6 gép kho khén nhiéu hon trong vide Mah h6i cac Wy thuyét, mé hinh trinh bay trong cuén sich. Tuy inhign, I rinh bay dudi dang bai gidng, vila cn ké. 16 gich, via co nhiéw tinh hudng, vi dy minh hoa cu thé, chac chan sé giam nhe khé khan cla cae ban Gido sw VO BINH BACH myc Luc Phan I MG DAU (Chuung 1 - Khoa Kini (é vi mo 1.1. Tai sao phi nghin eu mon kinh A vi mo? 1.2. Cie nh kinh tar duy shu thé no? 1.3, Noi dung eta eusn ste Chuong 2 - $6 tieu kind té vi mo, 2.1. Phin dn gid tr a host dg kinh 1: Téng si phim trong nude 2.2. Phin én gid sinh boat: Chis gi tiga ding 2.3. Phin doh tinh tng that nghigh: TY Te that nghigp 2.4, Kel Iwan: Ti ede chi gu thdng ke kinh dn mo hin kind Ws Phan Il NEN KINH TE TRONG DAI HAN Chuong 3 - Thu nap quée dan: Sin xudi, phan phd va phan bé 3.1. Sin xust hing héa va dich vu 3.2. Phan phi thu nkap quoe din cho efe han 6 sin xuat 3.3, Nhu edu v2 hing ha vi eh vu 3.4, Trang thsi can bing va i suit 3.5. Ket loan . Chuong 4 - Tang teudng kinb 1 4.1. Tleh Igy te bin 4.2, Mite wy bin cong thsi vang 43. Sir gia Ging din 6 4.4. Tiga bo cing nghé 4.5. Tietkigm, ng oong vt chin il kind CE Trang 10 10 4 2 4 39 4“ 46 30 sh 33 “3s 8 80 88 a9 100 107 Mw us4.6. Ket lugn : Vaux ra ngodi pham vi me hinh Solow Phy lye: Céich tinh guide ting trum kink 1 Chiuomg 5 - That nghiep 5.1. Mave, tin dupe vige Iam vi t He that ngigp ty nhien 5.2 Stn kigin vige im v8 Unit nghigp tam thoi 53. Tinh cing nhse cia tea luong the 1S va tit nghigp cha vite 544. Cle dang tht nghitp 5. Ket lug Chirong 6 - Tién (¢ va lam phat 64. Tea Bgl? 6.2. Lf thuyét 8 luong ttn 16 6.3. Tae die tft: nguon thu te vige int 464, Lam phst ya Ii sus 6.5. Lai su danh neha vi nhu chu v8 tien Ue 6.6. Nhitog 16 tht XX boi ea Iam phat 6.7. KSt Ivan: Sy phan doi e6 din Phy Iye : Anh huimg'ea cung ting ttn 1 Hig ta ‘V8 tong lai do voi me gi. (Chuang 7 - Nén kinb 1 mi 7.1. Leng voi vA Ring héa que 7.2, TiS kim va du ws trong mén ki 6 ahd v8 md eta 73.75 gid hoi dosi i 7.4. Nube MY véi tu eéch nba kinh 16 Ion vi mi cta Pha tue : Non kin 1 Un va mi ea Phin TIT NEN KINH TE TRONG NGAN HAN Chung 8 - Gi6i thieu nhung bién dong kinh té 8.1, Syke ahau gida ngin han va dai haw 8.2. Téng eau 3. Téag cung 8.4. Chinh sch én din kink ws 8.5. Kei uaa Trang 120 126 132 133 135 be Ist 135 156 162 169 m 175 180 186 190 193 195 198 221 ns 2s 236 27 240 243 249 255 Trang Cuong 9 Téag cbt at 9.1 Th tong ng av dng 1S 260 9.2 Th ting tn 8 tng LM 9.3, Ketan: Trang hi cn Bing gf Ban x Chuong 1¢ - Téng cau IT 283 10149 in ng Kn Big hn 1S - LM 2 102 Mo bin IS-LM vl sh yw ag au 21 103, Dy sy os 295 104 Kenta 302 Chaong 11 -Téng cung 306 1.1, Bom st ag cng 07 1.2. Lam pit th neigp¥8 ng Pils x20 113. Ge a ng ht in eb 8: Kin 1 oe Keynes mol 31 11. Kat aan 37 Chong 12 - Cue tran tan vé chin sch kin t€ vi mo xi 121 Chi sh ei dg ay ng? 32 | 122 Chih sidh 60 doe tye ign theo Gy te hy hy neh? 39) 123, Kean: ach dah ei ach log th gi it dah 39 Phy ue : Tinh bs abst va su din 46; gida lam phét va thal nghigp 362 Chuang 13 Nén kinh t€ mé trong ngin han 365 13.1, Mo sink Mundell-Fleming 365 12.2, Non kinh if nh vA md eit tong dit kign gid Noi doi thé nb 369 13.3. Nem kin nko vat mi etn trong du kign 1} gid hoi dosi eS dah 373 13.4. Non thd i hay 6 dinh 4 gis Si dos? 380 1,5. Mo hinh Mundell-Fleming vi mie gi thay 46 136. Kat an 385 Phy ue + Mo bin agin hea v8 nbn kin tn v8 mo ita 39 (Chuong 14 - Ly thuyét chu kj vé kinh doanb thye té 395 14.1, Nem xét a i kinh w treng didu kign gis 396 4 14.2. Mo bi cha Ky Kinb down tge 18 a81.43, Cube tran lug xung quanh I thot v® chu kj kiah doanh thu ts 134 Ket loan Phin IV BAN THEM VE NHUNG CO SOKINH TE VI MO NAM SAU KINH TE VI MO huang 15 - Tieu dang IS.L EM Keynes vit him tt dang 15.2, Lisher#) v8 sy Tua chon gids ee tht ky 15.3, FModiglani 9 gid thuyet vong di 15.4, Mriedman vis gi thuyet thu nap ihuing xuyen 155. Ket tut hhuong 16 - Ban ve vin dé ng chinh phi 16.1, Quan digm tray thing v8 ng chinh phi 16-2, Quan dién es Ri-edc-lo v8 ng chinh phi 163. C6 tin tadn éuye chinh xe tham hyt ngan sich khong ? 164. Ket wan fhucng 17 - Diu te 17. Daw ws 66 dinh vo kinh dean 172, Dau tw vio nh 173, Dau tw vio hang ton kho 174, Ket Wan hhuung 18 - Cong va clu vé 18.1, Cung dng tion 18 18.2, Nhu etuve ttn 18.3, D6i mai hi chin va sy gin tang ca ban te 184. Ket Ioan hich thuat mgt Trang 408 410 413 44 as aig a1 436 4a 4s 447 49 458 462 465 466 a7 481 485 439 489 498 505 306 510 PHAN I MO DAU Phén | cia cudh séch nay giéi thiGu voi ban doc b6 mén kinh 6 vi md. Chuong 1 gidi 46p vain dé tai sao kinh t8 vi md Iai 18 mot bG mon koa hge hap dan va quan trong; né giai thich nhi'ng céng cy dye c&e nha kinh t@ van dung dé phan tich nn kinh t6' va tém t&t noi dung ca cugn sch nay. Chung 2 trinh bay nhing dang s6 ligu duge cdc nha kinh t8 va hoach dinh chinh sch sif dung 48 nghién ctu nén kinh 18.CHUONG 1 KHOA KINH TE Vi MO Khoa hoe ehiing qua ci ti su chat toe ming uc tating thucng ni A.Anh-xtanh 1.1. Tai sao phai nghién cutu kinh té vi mo? Tai sao thu hap hign nay Iai exw haan mite nim 1950 vir ta 10 nam 1950, né Iai eao hm mie many 1900? Tai sao img mute o 4 Fe lam phit eao, tong khi te uc Hie duy tf duge gi ea Gn dinh? Nesyen nkan no din d&n tinh trang suy thos {ink din «tie nhiing thsi ky thu niip giim va that nerigp tang = vi nha meee {fs va dung nhing ehiah sich ndo d8 giam bt in suit v3 nh chat nghicm trong etn cchiing? Kinh té vi mo - bo man khow inh t6 vai tr edeh mot tng. {né tim eich gid dip whing vin de nay v? nhieu vin dé tien quan DC doi. Nhumg ching ta s8 nhdim khi ket lun Ring nitn kinh t6 o6 kha nang thoa min shu clu gip doi, vi s6 lugng cia moi mac hing duge sin xu ra vin nhu eG. Cae nha kinh t€ goi gi tr hing héa va dich va tink bing gi hign hinb I GDP danh nghia teu tt hom dé phn Sink phic toi Kinb t€ phat vi dich vu cia nn kinh t¢ va khong bj Anh hung b6i nhiing thay d6i cia gis'ed, Dé dat duye muc tieu ny, ese nh kink t& sic dung GDP thre #2: N6 duos dinh nghia {rj hing ha va dich vu tinh thee gid e6 dink. Khi tinh GDP thye 16, nguii ta phi vi du nim 1987. Sau d6, nguii ta sir dung. gid nam 1987 dé ing hin va dich vu khie nhaa va edng chung Isi. Trong vi du ve nn cia ching ta, GDP thye « eta nam: 1994 Ia x Heong.erm| 1904 inh’ ding sin lvgng hing hia ai hon mot nam e: ddinh i inh te iso tans) [6 yee [Hg mgt) Am 1995 Bi Tung tw, GDP tye t€ cia c= [840 « tans) (oem, tango) opr iwc’ = (Spar x gs") + (Ear «Ses i i cam kings, GDP dg bi dog tn iy sang nn Be chido stay i ci, Vy, GDP th pin sin mg cn Kh ih 31bing dong do la trong nam co s6 (trong truiing hop nay la nim 1987). Xét cho cing, hd ning cia x4 hoi trong vige dip ting nhu cau cho ede thanh vicn cia né phu thude vio luong hing héa vA dich vu duce sin xuit ra, va GDP thyc t€ 18 chi tigu t6t hon GDP danh nghia trong vi¢e phiin Anh phic Ioi kinh t. Chi sé digu chinh GOP ‘Tu GDP danh nghia va thue t, ching ta e@ thé tinh duge chi tieu thong Ke thit 3: chi sO dieu chinh GDP. Chi s6 digu chink GDP, con duge goi Ii chi s6 digu chinh gid ‘ngim dinh cia GDP, duge dinh nghia 1 7 is = GDP danhnghia Chi s6aitu chin Gop = SOF Canhnt Ni vay, ci s0' diéu chink GDP ta 4¥ 1g gita GDP danh nghia va GDP tue 1 ‘Dé hida 19 hon GDP danh ngbia, GDP thye tf vi chi s6 digu chinh GDP, ching te hay tr Iai xem xét nn kin té chi si xust mot oa hang ha 14 binh my. Vio bit ky nim io, GDP dank nghia cing bing t6ng s6 ttn chi ra dé mua bénh my trong mim 445, GDP thue # chin bing s6 6 bin my duge sin xual trong nim d6 nha véi gis teinh my eta nam co si nio di. Chi s0 dit chiah GDP 1 gis txinh my nam dé so vei si inh my nam e9 88. ‘Song ofc nitn kinh t¢ hien nay sin xuat nhieu loai hing héa. GDP danh ngbva, GDP thue t€ va chi s5 dieu chinh GDP téng hop nhieu gid cd va lugng hang khic nhau. Hay xem xét nda kinh té sin xusitt4o va cam. Neu ky hieu P [a gid mot loai hing, Q 1 luo hing va chi s6 ma "87" him ¥ nam 1987 duye coi fa nam eo s6, thi chi $6 ditu chinh GDP duge tinh bing céng thie Chi s6 dieu chink GDP = Cue X Qued + Pea x Qe) (PE x Qed + PEn X Qe) ‘Tit s6 cia cong thie nly {a GDP danh nghie va mau s6 Ia GDP thye ts. Ci GDP dan nghia va thyc t du o6 thé duve coi 18 it cba mgt gi6 hing hda; trong trum, hap niy, 6 hing ha bao gim luong tio va eam hign duge sin xudt ra, Chi s6 ditu chinh GDP cho phép ching ta tich GDP dan ng thinh 2 phn: phdn phi da luong bang va phn pin inh gid, Tae la GDP éanh neh GDP thye t x Chi s6 ditu chink GDP GDP danh nghia phn dh gid ri béng 1ién eva sin emg ma nén kinh t€ 130 va GDP the :é phan dnh Khoi hang sin phi «nie sin lug duce dlink gi theo sid 6 inh (cia nam ca sé). Chi sé digu chink GDP pin dnh gi cia me don vi sin haong igh hink so véi gid cia nd wrong ndm ee 36: 32 AG Cac thanh té cla chi tieu Clie nha kinh t va hoach dinh chinh sich khong chi quar ttm 16. ng sén Iugng hang hoa va dich vy eda nen kink tS, ma edn quan tim dein vain de phan phi sin Iugng niy cho nhing mue dich sis dung kiée nhau. Tai khosin quée din phan chia GDP thinh bon thin (6 lon: * Tie dang (C) Daw ww) * Mua hang eda ehinh pid (G) Xuat Khu rng (NX) Bai vay, nou ky higu GDP 1a Y, ehidng ta e6: Y=C+1+G+NX GP ti tdng cia tidu ding, daw ty, mua hing cia chinh phi va xustkhiu rong. Méi do la GDP duye xép vin mot trong bd thinh 16 tren, Phuong inh my 1 mgt ding nh thie ~ ngs 96 ludn luda ding do eh din nghia ec bign 6. N6 age oi I ong nh thie ea 4% Rod che mkdp qude dn ‘Tieu ding bao gom hing héa va dich vw ma efe bO gia Sinh mua. N6 dage chia thanb ba'bo phan chi yéu: hing mau hong, hing au ben va dich vu. Hang mau bng 18 hang ebi ton tai trong thd gian npn nhu thye phim va quin do. Hang lau Ben TA ‘ning a ta trong thd gian di nhu 9, t vi. Dich vu bao gm céc cing vie phuc vw ‘cho ngudi tigu ding do ei e8 nan vA doan nghi¢p thge ign nhu eft te, khém benb, ‘Dau tu bao Om cic hing ha duye mua dé ding trong twong lai. Dau ty eding duge chia thinh ba nhom nh: dtu ts e8 dinh vao kinh doanh, dau ts 6 dinh vio nha 6 va au ‘urvio hang fon kho. Dau tw e6 dinh vio kinh doanh fi vige mua sim nk may va thist bj ‘mdi cla doanh nghigp. Dau tued djnh vio nha dla vige mua nha moi cia ho gia din vA rnguii cho thue nha, Diu tw vio hing fn kho 18 mde tang Gn kho hing héa cia doanh nghigp (néu hing ta kho gid xudng, dau tw vio hing tn kho mang dy Am). Mua hang ciia chinh phit 18 nhing hing hoa va dieh vu ma chinh phi Lién banig, chinh quyén ede bang va dia ghuong mua, Thanh 15 ndy bao gdm thiet bj quin sy, dudng usc 1 va dich ve ma vien che cia chinh phi: cung cdip. N6 khong bao gom cfc khodn chuyéin giao thy nbp cho ef rhin, vi du ttn bio hiém va trg cap xi hoi. Vi nhirug Khon tie nay ebi bigu tht su tii phin b6 thu nhap hign e6 va khong duge thye hign trong qué ‘inh trap dai hang hda va Uich vu, nén ching khong pha fa bo phan cia GDP. ‘Thigh 10 eu elng, xuatkhdu ring, tinh dén quan hg buon bin vi ee nude Khe. Xuai ku rong fi ghd ti Wing héa va dich vu duye xuat kh sang ale nue khde tet i gis uy hang hia va dich vy ma agudi nue ngodi cung edip cho chung ta, NO biéu thi 3 KTyM 33hin chi tigu rong ei nue ngoai dé mua hing hoa va dich vu eta ching ta vi kam D tang thu nbap cia ede aha sin xual trong nuvi PHAN BOC THEM Di tw la gi? Khai nigm dau tr doi khi gay ra sw Hin lon doi vi nbn ngudi mi tip sie wi ‘mon kinh t€ vi mo. Su Kin Ion niy sinh vi cai e6 vé fa dw tr eda ea nhdn Lar khong Pha’ daw tw cia nn kinh 16 vi te exch moe tine she: id sir ching ta quan sis thy bai sw kign sa day: © Ong Smith mua sagt ngoi nha say dimg 100 nam wud day dai la Victoria, * BA Jones xay dung mot ngoi nh’ him dai moi toanh, Teng dau tw 8 day Fi bao nhies:? MOL ngOi nh’, hi ngoi nha hay Khong ed ngoi ha nao ei? Khi quan sit hai giao dich nity. ede nha kinh ( vi md chi tink ngoi nh cia ba Jones vio du tu, Giao dich eia ong Smith khong tao ra FeO; nh mai eho nga kink te: 16 cai tdi phan pho ngOi aha hign es. Vige mua nh cia ‘ap Smith fa daw tu doi v6 ng Smith, nhung la 1 sy edt gidm cia tw eta aguas bin ngoi na. Nguye Iai, ba Jones 43 bi sung them mot ngoi nh mi cho nin Kinh t6, ngo: nhd nav cia ba dage coi 1h «fa We ‘Tuong ty eh vay, ehiing ta hay xem xét hai sw igh sau * Merrill mua ciia Lynch 5 trigu do ta e6 phigu IBM tren thi trating ching khodin Lynch Niu Ose. * General Motor bin 10 trigu do ta €6 phic eho cong ching va sir dung s ttn 46 4 xy dumg mot nha miy 6 10 mi 6 day, dau tr 1a 10 trigu do la, Trong giao ich thit nhat, Merrill duu we vito od phisw IBM, con Lynch gidin dau tr, khong c6 su dy tw ni trong nn kinh ted, Newoe xi, General Motor sis dung mot phir sin Iugmg hang héa va dich vu eéa nen kinh te dé b6 sung vao khoi lug tw bin cba minh; boi vay nhit my méi cia n a aw te Cuy téc chung 1a nhimg hanh vi ma eti ti phan phi thi sin hign e6 gia ede ec nnhan hong due coj a di tr d6i v6. itm kinb te, Kis niém daw tw trong kinh t€ v1 ‘mo gin v6i vige tao ra ty bin mdi eS 34 NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG 2-1. GDP va cde thin t6 cia né ‘Vio nim 1992, GDP cia My t6ng cong Ia 6 nghin tj. Con s6 nay hin dein mie bit ner khong thé toring tug nd. Ching tae6 thé lam eho né a8 higu hon beng céch chia cho s6 din efia MF vio nim 1992 la 255 trigu nguii. Bang eich nay, ching ta ob duye GDP dw ngubi - hay mite chi ticu bink quan cia mot nguel MF. Con s6 ray [23,298 9 In vio nam 1982, Ching ta sit dung chi tigu GDP niy nhw the no? Bing 2-1 cho thy hai phitn ba trong 96 46, hay 16.036 do la/dau ng, duce chi cho titu ding. Diu tu 1a 3.016 do liu ngudi, Mua hang cia ehinh phi I 4.365 do la/daw nguai, trong a6 6 1.236 do la chi cho qude phdng ea Chinh phi Lien bang. Bing 2-1. GDP va ede thank t6 eda ehi tidus 1992 eee oe Téng Béu nguidi (ty 46 tay (ata) ‘Tong sin phiim trong aude (GDP) 5.950,7 23.298 Tiéu ding 4.095,9 16.036 Hang maw hong 1.2908 5.054 Mang tau ben 480.4 L881 Dich va 2.3247 9.102 Bau wu 770.4 3.016 ‘Diu tur e6 dinh vio my méc, thigt bi 548.3. 2.4147 aw ur e6 dink v20 ahi 217,7 852 au tw ton kho 44 7 ‘Mua hang ciia chirh phii Lig 4.365 Lign bang 4492 L759 Quse phdng 315,8 1236 Ci fink vue kh 13,4 552 Bang va dia phuong 65,8 2.607 Xadt khdis rong = 304 19 Xuiit khidw 636,3 2.451 Nhap khiw 666.7 2.610 Newin: Rs Thay ng Ms 4T sue 35‘Mot cé nhin binh quan mua 2.610 do ta hing héa nhap kh tir nue ngodi va sin ‘ud 2.451 d6 Ia hing xudt khdu sang cic nude khse. Nhw vay, xust khiu rong mang dau am. Vi tku duge it tién hom tir vige bin hang cho ngudi nut ngodi se v6i 36 tien chi ra dé mua hang héa nude ngoai, cho nén ching ta phi thanh ton phiin chenh lech bing céc khoiin vay ng ngudi nude ngodi (hose bin mot $6 tii sin cia ching ta di). ‘Vio nam 1992, mot ngudi My binh quan vay cia nuse ngoai 119 do la GDP va GNP ‘Téng san phim trong nude phan dnb tng thu nhap ciia moi agudi trong mot nn kin t€. Nhung néi m9t céch cu thé, khéi ni¢m "moi ngudi" bao giom nhting ai? C6 tinh nhing ngudi My Lim vige 6 nude ngodi va ngw nude ngoti lam viee tren dat Mj khong? Dé tei loi ning cau hoi ay, ching ta hay phan biet tng san phiim trong nude Wi chi tieu thing ke gin chat voi né Fa tdag sin phim quo dan, * Téng sain phim trong nude (GDP) 18 téng thu nhap kigin duce trong mucic. NO bao gdm ci thu nhap ma ngudi awe ngodi kiém duye trong mnie, nhung khong bao gdm thu chap ma ngudi dan trong nue kiém duge & nude ngodi * Téng sda phdm qué dan (GNP) fa t6ng thu nhap md ngia cin mot nude (ghia 1a cong dan cia mot nude) kiém duve. Né bao gm cd thu nh§p ma ngudi din mot nude kkigm duge & nude ngodi, nung khong bao gm thu nhip ngudsi nue ngoai kiém duve G trong nvée. Hai chi tieu v8 thu nhap nay khe nhau, vi mt ci nhan e6 thé kgm duve thu ahap & mot nuse, nung Iai fd edng dan ei muse khie. ‘Dé higu duve sy khie nhau gia GDP 1a GNP, ching ta hiy new ra mot sé vi du Gia sir moe cong dan Me-hi-cd sang Mj lao dong trong mét thoi gin. Thu kiem duge 6 My {a bo phn GDP cia My vi khoén thu nhap nay kigi duye & nue MJ. ‘Nhung khoin thu nhgp nay khong phi 14 b0 phn GNP cia Mj, vi nguvi cong din ‘khong mang quée tich My. Twung:ty, n¢u cong dan Mj latn vige Mé-hi-co, thu nhap cca anh ta 18 bp phn GNP cia My, nhung Khong phai li bo phan GDP cia M5. ‘Trong da sO truimg hop, ngudi ta khong cin phan biet git GDP vi GNP. Vi haw het dan cu kiém phdn lon thu nhap cia ho & nude minh nen GDP vi GNP khong khic ‘shaw nbige Lim. True day, cdc nhit hoach dink chinh sich My sit dung GNP Lam ui ‘ieu chi yéu dé phin énh thu nbap cia nén kinh t€, Nhung vio nam 1991, BO Thums ‘mai MY chuyén sang sir dung GDP. Xét ten tobn thé giGi, GDP In chi tieu duye sit dung nite how, 36 Cac chi tiéu khac vé thu nhap Hg thing ti Khodn thu nhap quo dan cdn bao gdm cae chi tidu kde eda thu nap. Ching kiée nau mot chit so vi dinh nghia ve GDP va GNP. Ditu quan trong la ching ‘a phi biet ce chi tieu nay, vi e&e nha kinh t€ va bio cht thutmg née ti ching. Ching ta 68 thé xc dinh mei quan he gia cfe chi téu Khe nhau v8 thu nbp bAng cfch xuit phat tir GNP, sau d6 kh trir cdc lugng khée nhau, Dé c6 chi tidu sm phim = (Px MPK) = R é toi da h6a Io nhusn, doanh nghigp tiep tue hue them Lr xuing mie bing gid thue th fn cho khi MPL gidim MPK = VP Gid thué thue té cita te bein fa gi thue duge tinh bang s6 don vj bang héa chit khong phii bang tien . ‘Tom Iai, mot donnh nghisp canh tran, ti da héa toi nbuan tuan theo quy t4e don isdn dé xe dinh xem nén thué bao nhieu lao dong va tu bin, Dounh nghiep ed nh ee 8 mdi nhdn 16 sdn suc cho dé ki scin phim edn bién ceria nan 0 dé gid xudng én mite bang gid nhdn 10 tae €: : Phan phéi thu nhap quéc dan Sav kh dX phan tich xong nu ciu ve nba #6 sin xutt ia ef doanh nghigp ef bigu, bay itching ta o0 thy gi phony the thi trang nh 1 sin xu ia hab phan phot thu np cia nn hind tf. Néu tit cd eft doanh nghigp trong én kinh w dy Th dosh nghigp canh tranh va t6i da ho fi nhuan, thi mi akan 16 sin xu 36 dluye thu akiptwong tg voi pian ddng gdp cin bien cia minh v2o qa nk sin xu ‘Ten luong thve (ta cho mi eng nha ing MPL. va gi thuéthye tir cho ngudi ‘chi sév hitu tw ban bing MPK. Bai vay, tng tién luong thy 1 bing MPL x L va tng, tim thue thie t€ tr cho ngu chu tr Bin Kt MPK x K. “Thu nhap cdn lai saw Ki ee doanh nghigp 43 thanh tosn cho ede nhan té sin xuat 1 loi nhudn kink té cua nguvi chi doath nghigp. Loi nhutn kinb 16 thye tf ban Loi nhuga kind té'= Y - (MPL x L) -(MPS x K) ‘Vi mudi nghien edu vin de phan phdi thu nap quée dan, ching ta bién di phuwong wink tren vai dye: Y= (MPL x L) + (MPK x K) + Loi nhuan kinh “Teng thw nbap duye ehia thanh thu aka tré cho lao dong, thu nb tx cho tr bin va loi nhugin kinh te Song neu gid dinh ring him sin xust 66 tinh chat foi suet Khong dai theo quy mo, Joi nhugn kinh t phii bang 0, Dieu dé e6 aghia 12 thu nhip duye phan phsi bet cho 61* ee luong, thu nap cia wy bin vi loi a Gag than 16 sin xu, Ket lutn bat ng mdy duye rt mt met thinh tu ton hoe néi Utne dud i te dink I§ O-te, ot inh IY king diah rang nu him sin sae os Iei suit khong Gi theo quy mo, thi FURL) = (MPL x L) + (MPK x k) Neu mbit i nhon duge thu nhap tung dng vi sin phim edn bien cian, th {638 efekhoin thu ohdp ein fe nhin © nay phi Bing tng sin layne, en tc aii kign lot sus khong di theo quy mo, 15 da ha lok aban va ean rent hag ¥ loi ‘ahuan kinb (¢ bang khong. nal lai nhusn kinh te bing khong, ching ta Kim t3€ mo dé Iy gi su ton ta cba tui nhugn trong mén kinh te? Ciu ti Ii kha nigm "lo ald theo ghia khiie v6i Igi nhuan kink t, Ch ‘gui lao dong, chi sé bitw tw bin va chi sense, itn dou shu, chu khong thus s6 tr bin mi ho si dung. BUi vay, hoes ABU ong 8 ngwbi si hou tu bin, Kh nigm "loi nhudn" thuong bec gore cane hua Kin t¢ vA thw ohap eta wy txn vi nev go “oi an Ik lot whe we odin, ching ta 66 thé viet: ‘Li nhuan ke toga =Lei nhutn kinh te + (MPK x K) reg ham vi eae gid dinh ci eng a1 oi sult khong di theo quy mo i da 16s ei hun va eanh tranh, loi nes kinht€ bing O. Néu akg gra deh y mo ta gin hing thye (6. ti “loi nbusn" tong sie ti Khon qude dan plas ign phat 1a thu ‘ahap ciia tw ban, Jy a ching ta 6 thé tI cho elu hd nu ra tu chung may vb eich thie reer a thu nhtp cia nén kinh w& dr dosnh nghigp sang ho gia dink. Mol eka oe aga te thu bap bing sin phim cin bien cin minh, vA Khodn tee tesa ae whca a Ging bing tng sin luong. Ting sn lean deg. chia thank ede Greg Ian Wd cho tt bin vi lao dong theo nang suét can bin eta ching NGHIEN CUU TINH HUGNG 1. Nan dich hach va gid mhan «6 gy tiuet tan 8 dign ve phan pit, sis nha w sang sin phim ean bien cia Tp De ning sus cin bieh phy tude vo a6 luamg nkan ts, suhoy oe trong bat Ay ahan t6 nto eting lim thay di sm ph ‘han tw. Do vay, ‘thay dSi cia cung ve mot nhan ts im thay di id can bing ela ahaa es te roe Fn) an Ole, hy a Sts dh nahn i lu ng 6 theo ‘04 8:2¥ = Fak 24) su 66 8 dgo him theo 2 ac nh gd Merle mon eo 62 sul cf bien eda lao ding ting kh lugng lao dOng iim, tin trang gdm et hn ton sang phia tei doc theo cic duéng trong hinh 3-3 va 3-4). Tién lmmg thuc té ting ten ting K-36 nau we Khong ep dot, Nong dn, nhOng nu may mn tha if due hudmg su thinh vuong vé kinh té. Iho man deh bs hy ng a ing 2 i 1 la go ng dna dh hy a ig pc t= hn Go in a eh 960 Ke ht Tram e0 Kt tng da m it dai, don vi dit dai ting thém lam ting sin luong it hon. Sur gio cc nong dan ti nén kha gi hon, thi giai ep sé hit dst dai phi vie tn nap tha ho’ 3.3. Nhu céu vé hang héa va dich vu ining tad bist digu gh quytt dich mic sin xust vi thu np do sia xu go ra ‘duge phan ph6i nhur thé ndo gia edng nhin vi ngubi sir hiu tw bin, Bay giv ching tty tue theo di bu dd v8 vng chu ehuyéa tong inh 3-1 vi ney xem sin Ineng sin xudt ra duye sit dung nbw thé ni. nat Trong chung 2, ching ta di thio lug v* 4 thanh 16 eda GDP: * Tiew ding (C} * Diu wr () * Mua bing eta ehinh phi (G) » Xust khan reg (NX) Bigu do ve ving chu chuyén chi aéu ra ba think (6 dau, BE don giin héa phin tc ci minh, te th hing i dah nti fg Uh ot ai Kg ‘quan he budn bin vii eae nude khée. Vi vy, xust khdu rong bang 0. Ching ta sé nghi city kind 1 vi mo cia efe nén kinh 1@ mut trong chwong 7. Non ki 6 dng bch ing Rng Nv eh vw ma sn x, Bs than (6 nay cia GOP daye biéu thi bing dong nhat thie trong cic tai Khogn que dan: Y=C#14G | (9) Calo M. Cipolla, Giai dosn tin ech mang céng nghigp: XA hoi va kinn 8 chiu Au, 1000-1700, | wt a Sa Rea $4 68Ho ga diah tieu ding mot phan sin luong ci nén kinh t8; doanh nghigp va ho gie «inh sit dang mot phn sin luong dé au tu; va chinh phir mua mot phn sin lvong dé phuc vu cho cic muc tiéu cong cng. Ching ta mucin bigt GDP duge phan bé nhur the rio cho 3 mus dich sit dung nay. Tiéu ding Ki sir dung lung thyc, thye phim, qui 4o hoae di xem phim, ching ta ti¢u «ling mot phan san lwong cia nin kinh 6 Tat ca ese hinh thie tu ding edag lai chi¢m 2/3 GDP. Vi tieu ding lon nhur vay, nén ee nhi kinh t¢ vi mo tap trung nhieu stc tue {Jé nghien cia xm ce ho gia dink lim thé nio dé quyét dinh tieu ding bao nbicu. Chuong 15 sé nghien eitu vin d® nay mot cach chi tit. Trong myc nay, ching ta chi xem xét nhimag phuong di¢n don giin nhat cia Hanh vi tieu ding. Ho gis dinh nian dive thu nhap tt lao dong vA sé hOw ty bn, ndp thus cho chin phi, sau d5 quyet inh xem nen ding bao nbieu thy nhap sau khi nop thué dé teu dang va dinh rabao nhigu dé vst Kiem. Nhurtrong mue 3.2 cing ta da bie, thu nhap ma ho sia dinh nin duge bing sin tummg cia nen kinh t. Sau 6 chinh phi dinh thué ede 4 gia dink va lay di phitn thu nhap bing T. (Mae di chiah phi 4p dung ahiu loa thu kc nhau, chdng haa thue thu ahap e4 nhan va cong ty, thue tiew thy vv. nhung dé Dhue va cho mue dich ea minh, ching ta cong ti ci ching Iai voi. nau). Thu nap sau khi di nop tit ei efe loai thu 1a Y-T duge goi la thu nhdp kid dung. Cie ho gin tri ngtn hing sé mat gid 59%. M6i nan deuce {ubigp no them 826 s6 tien vay, nhumg eid tr ea tiem li gid 5%. Lil suit thye te eke bing 39%, we bang mute chenh ech with Ii sustdanh oghia va ty Ie lam phst _one. chong 6, ching ta sé bin chi ict hom ve mdi quan he gia Iai sust danh nba a I sua thye t€, Tam thoi ching tachi can nbd ring Ii sust thw te phdn tah qh ht thue su cia tn vay. Do vay, ehing ta nn dith dis tw phy thuge vaw ly sth Uwe (6, chi hong phi 1 suat denh nghia, Mi quan he gia Hi suit th 16 vi dau tr e6 thé bw thi hang phuumg tinh sau: a) Phuong trinh ny him ¥ du tw tur aay. N6 6c xubing, phy thude vio li sat. Hinh 3.6 bigu thi ham dau Vi Rh Hai suat-tang, tuomg eu ve en gm, omg a 7 Hin 3-6, Ham dawtw Ham ctu we gdn taong din tc mong mucin 196i Nai suit hue t€ Babu we ph thude "do Iii sud hue t€, vi Iai sui Id chi pht y. Heim dau nedéec subng e6 nghia ang cao, cang it du én die te 66 a Mua hang cia chinh phi Mua hang eda chink phi 1 think 16 thé 3 eta nhu ew vi hing hn va dich vu Chinh phi Licn bang mua sing dan, ten lia, vi dich vu eda nhimg ngudi Kim vige cho chink phd. Chinh quyn dia phurmg mua sich cho thu vign, xay dung truiing hoe va thus gido vien. Chinh quyén ec cap xiy dung dutmg si vi cae cong tiah cdng edn, ivi, tng cong eaiém khong 20% GDP ciia Mg, Nhdng khosin mus hing nay chi fi mot hinh thie chi tiew eda chith phd. Hink thi chi tieu khiée fa chuyén giao thu nap cho cic ho gia dink nhw try edp x8 hoi cho ngudi'nghéo va tri tién bio him cho gud gia, Khée voi mua hing cia chink phi, hinh vi chuyén go thu nhap khong phai true tip sie dung sin long, hing héa va dich vu eta nén kink t€. Cho nén, a6 khOng dave tinh vio big 36 6. Chuyén gio thu shap tée dong gidn tigp den nhu cau-vé hing héa va dich vu, CChuyén giao thu nap fa yeu 6 nguoe ‘ai vi thue: nd fam (ang thu akp kha dung cia ‘ho gia dinb, trong khi thué Lim gim thu nhap khi dung. Cho nen, si gia tang ehuyén iso thu hap duce tai try bing mie ting tuemg ting ela thué lim eho thu ahap kha dung khong thay di. Bay gid ching tae thé sta dinh nghin ei mink véT bang eéch lay thug wir di chuyén giao thu nap. Thu ahap kha dung (Y-T) bao him ed tie dong. ‘im eta thué va tie dng dugg eta ehayén gino tu nhip, Nu mua hing cia chinh phi bing thué trix chuyén giao, thi G=T va chink phi e6 nga sich cén bang. N8u G iin hum T, chinh phi Im vio tinh trang than hut nga sdch. NO duye tai cry bing ech phat Hanh tri phigu eia ehinh phi - nghia li, chinh hi vay tién trén thi tredng tai chin. Neu G nbo hon T, chinh phi e6 ching dic ngn sséch vit phan thang du ray 06 thé sir dung d ted mot plidn s6 ng ton dong va yim bOt rg eda ehinh phi. PHAN BOC THEM Nhiéu loaf lai suat khic naw cia mdt W bio, ban thay e6 thong tin ve nhieu Logi suit Khe nhau, Nhung ong ton b9 cusn sich ny, ching ta ehi n6i dén Iai suit vA ‘ely ra city tung chi e6 mot fox Iai suit trong nién kinh té. Diém phan bigt dduy nist ma ching ta néu ra fa si Khe ahau git Iai suét danh nghia (chara diga chinh m phit) va Iai sist thye t€ (da dig chinh Lam phi): Tat ed ede loa lai sust néu ra io chi du 103i suit danh nghia, xem mue-kinh doanh 90 Iai €6 nbibu loa Iai sust nhur vay tren ban chi? 67Cée loai Iai sust Khe nhau 6 3 digm: * Thi han: Mot s6 khodn cho vay trong nn kinh t¢ 6 thii an nein, e6 Khi e - Nhung eting 6 nhiing khodn cho vay dai (i 30-nam. Lai suat cia e+ thuge vio thei ban eta né. Thong thing, nbwag Khong phi | ‘ing vay, li suft dai han eao hon Iai suat nein han * Rai ro tin dung: Khi phi quyct dinh xem e6 cho vay hay khong, nyu cho 12 Pht th den xe suat hodn tr ein ngubi di vay. Lua php eho phép con ne hone toan tr ten vay bang edeh tuyen bé vi nor Xie sult mal kh nang thank terrane ats ai sudt edn cao, Rui ro tin dung thip abit 18 chin phi va vi vay {8 phicu ctah phi thutng e6 Ini sust thip. Nguve Iai, ahiing cong ty gap kho kay Wi chinh chi goi due ven bang eich phit hinh rt phn méuh sid thdp, abun (ta I8i suat cao, * Tic déng cia thué: Lai suat ei ee lori tr ‘shaw nhitm pye vu cho muc dich dinh thut. Bi bang va dia phuomg phat hinb tr 6 loai tii phiéu nay khong phii 1ai swat. Do wu da i phiéw khiie nhau duge xir ly khie n quan trong nhat fa, khi chin quyién hic, n6 duve goi Id trai phiisu think phé va ngui nop thue thu nhap lien bang cho khosn thu nkap tir v8 thué nay, tri phigu thanh pho e6 lai suit thap hum, {Gh hy ha Toa ai suit kde ahau tren bio ch, Hw nhs hie mio ban eBing 66 thé {idl thick st khée nhau bing céch xem xét tht han, ri ro tin dung va eich dinh thu 446i vi khodn vay. Mae di 6 nhieu log Ii suit Khe nhaw tong mtn kinh ¢6, kinh ¢ vi mo thang, 8 au av ke bietniy. Cac loi Iii sult Kh nhau es x hing tang va elim cong chieu vi naa, Gid dinh chi e6 mot loi Ii sust fi eich don pin héa hu teh dt vor ime tigu cia ching ta, Se aay, ching ta khong tim cach 1y gidi qué tinh ehinh rj din dén mot chinh sich (i Sith ah din tte 18 din dén mot mae maa hing vi thue cia ehinh phi, Ching ‘chi coi mua hing va thué li ede bign s6 ngoai sinh. ‘DE ths hi¢n nhdng bin s6 nay duge e6 dink ben ngodi mo hinh, chi a T a viet T Song mue dich cia chung ta li musn xem xét inh hung cia ehinh seh tai chiah 15; vai ahi bia 86 dye xde dinh trong noi bf mo hin hay Big s6 nd sn O day. ‘eée bin 55 no: sinh Ia teu ding, du t va lai sua Dé bidt de bicn 86 ngoai sinh te dong dé bi 56 no sinh alu thé no, ching ii m@ inh cia minh. Bay fa doi tuang cia mue sau, 68 3.4. Trang thai can bang va lai suat Ching xem st ng ti ong gad ve vn ht chun tog ah 3.1, Ching ta di bat dau bing vige nghien edu cung vé hing hia va dich vy, sa phn tich nu eau vé ching. Lim tg nto dé ching tn in he ge ng ch chap yen 36 vlna? Ns cis ke, you 6 no dim Bo ng Sng ca eu dig, di a hing ch chinh phi bang khoi lung sin phim duye sin xuat ra? Ching ta thay ring li s dng vai t quan trong trong vige fim can bang cung cu Trang thai can bang trén thj truéng hang héa va dich vy: Cung va cau vé san lugng cila nén kinh té inh sau day t6ng ket pn trinh bay trong mye 3.3 v8 nhu Au hang Ce phuemg hoa va dich vu: " si itn ding, vA mo Mag hu chu ve sn lg ci ki 6 pt sin ig ci chin pi Tending po thte vo hv ab thi dog, tage noi State cbn moshing thn cin cin ph ang #5 gos inh ph tae chin sch chi ng ha v8 ch vu, by ching ta pin ch mt Sa Ki xem xt aha chu v8 ng hav ch vo, ay ching : ung Nb ai bay ong ne 31 ethan hn Xt ss xt ye ah i ong nu (K, Ly i a dé mo t2 cung vi cau ve say gidy chiing ta hdy kél hop cae phuong: nay lai, © a sin ogg: NEU ty ta Gi dong va him du to ng a hs ca Kod hs jahap quée dan, ching ta duge Y=OY-D+KN+G Vi ede big $6 G va T bi chinh sich quy dinh, con mic sin lugng Y do se nat 16 sin xut va ham San xuft quyét dink, cho mén ching ta e6 thé viet Yec¥-T+iy+G Phuring trinh nay néi ring cung ve sin lugng bing ctu vé n6 va ctu bang tieu ding, «au tr va mua hing eda ehink pho. BQ 6Pay gid ching ta c6 thé thay Iai sult r dung va td then eit n6 phil diy chin 82 £ Nhimg cau cri 1Oi én cha bax 6 ¥ nghia gi ddi v6i gid tuong di cia eft 6c s0,v6i thye phim ? Ai duoe loi do o6 tic bo ky thuat trong nong nghigp - agudi none dan hay th: ft te? Chinh phi tang thué them 100 tj. Néu khuynh hung tiew dang ct bien bang 0,6, dtu gi sé xay ra d5i vii 18. Tigt kigm cong cong? », Tit kigm tw bin ? © Tiét kigm quée dan ? 4. Dau tw? Gia sir vige cang nim tin cia ngudi tiéu ding fim ting kj vong tia ho v8 thu hp twang Ini va do d6 twang hing ho mucin tty ding higm ta eng ting theo. iu niy o6 thé 1f gidi bing su dich ehuyén Ién phia tren cla him tieu ding. St dich chuyén nay tie dong dén das tu va [i suat nhu thé nao ? ng & mite itu gh sé xy ra di chin phi tan the vi mn hing @ mie nh nha, Diu voi lai suit va dau tw khi e6 sw thay d6i ngan sich en bang miy ? Cau td li ete ban 6 phu thude vio khuynb huing tiéu ding edn bién khang ? a i dieu nay anh hung nhs thé mio doi véi [Neu tu din pho thuge vio fist, hi du nay inh hating r hung ket luén trong chuemg nay ve tée dong ela chinh sich ti chfahPHU LUC HAM SAN XUAT CoBB-DOUGLAS Ham sin aust nto mo GDP cia ede nen kinh w hi tie gia mot mghj si My ti ding phuomg thite chuyén dit tu bin va lao dong thin nay ? Liv wii dip eho eau hoi ni “i mot nha toxin hoe. 1a ket qui eda sir hop Paul Douglas fi nghj si My dai dign cho bang Illinois ti nam 1949 dén nam 1966. Song nam 1927, khi com I mot gio sw kinh 8 te, Ong di chi 16 mot thue ding nga nhjen: (7 1e phan phoi thu nhap gia tu bie va tao dong hw abu khong thay dt trong mot khodng thi gian Ubi, Néi cach Khe, kbi sin lung ela ngn kinh te tan Ong nan va gud si hit tw ban cing duce hung thu nhap cao hom mt edch bink ing. Ket qua quan sat nay la a i iy Li cho Dooly ng dh ang dein trong khong dét cia cic nhan t6 sin xu, Y ue Douglas hai Charles Cobb, mot nha toxin hoe, ing nei i é , MOK nha toxin hoc, Fing nu es thi Mam sin xuait nao es thé bigu th: ty trong nha « khong Si, néw ede nhain W6 chi nha Oa sin phn can bien cia minh. Him sin xudt phai ed tinh chat la: " ‘Thu nbap ein tu bi MPK xK = oY ‘Thu nhap cit dong = MPL x L = (I= ay ¥ trong d6 cB. mst hang s6 nim ia 0 va I phin dnd t¥ trong thu nhap eiia tw bain. Ny tones iY trong thy ahap cia tw bin, Nghia ti wot phe een ‘obb chi ra ring him s6 e6 tinh chiit ni m Y= FKL) = AKL I Fong d6 A [i mpttham s6 dn hom 0, phin dnb ing suft eta cong nghe hig o6, H ‘ay da tro nen adi ticng voi edi ten ham siin xudi Cobb ™ Douglas hing hy nghien cov KF ham tn cn im nat “am sin xuit Cebb-Douglas e6 loi swat khong ddi theo | quy m0. Nghi fa wb ‘vi lao dong ting theo eding mot t7I¢, sin lugng 86 tang theo ty 18 43. ‘Tgp theo, chung ta bay xem xét.sin phim c4n bien cia ham sin xst Cobb-Douglas. Sin phim ea bien ea uo dong 1 MPL = (I= a) AKL" va sin phim can bien cd tw ban MPK = aaK*"! Tir nhitag phuong trink ny va nd lai ing & adm trong khoing tir dén 1, chiing ta ce thé thy nguyén nhan lim cho sin phim etn bign cia hai nhan t thay Adi. Su gia ting kh6i lung i bain Fam sing MPL vi giim MPK. Tuong tu, su gia tang Khoi tuomg Jao dong lam tang MPK va gidin MPL. MOt cn bO cong ngbe Lim tang tham s6 A sé lim cho sin phim can bien cia hai nha 16 ting theo cing mot ty Ie Sn phim ean bien ciia him sin xust Cobb-Douglas eting 6 thé viet nku sau® = MPL = (=a) Y/L MPK = 0 YK MPL ty I vi sin luong cia mdi edng nhin va MPK gI¢ véi sin tuomg cia mbi dom vi tw ban, YL duye go IA nang sudt bink quan ciia lao dng, va YIK duge goi 1a indi suai binh quan eva dn, Neu ham sim xuat 1a ham Cobb-Douglas, thi nang sudt ‘ean bign cia mot nhan (6 ty 1¢-v6i nang suat inh quan cia né. ©. Gnd V mit tan hoc ching minh nam sén suit Cobb-Dovgls cb [sult King 6 Heo uy md cite hay nem ky gb sy 10H aS bn v8 ao 6g v9 met hlng 8 Flak, 2) = Aki a)! a ein v6 ph Feekat) = Adit 21 et Bin a6 cong the ny AE Kat hope biG the vk hay, a Flak, x)= 22S AKL! ham cia ching ts 8 thin Flak, 2b) = zac ‘ Ivhung AK Ut = FG, L), choot Flak, 20) 2 2KU= 2 ‘cho nén kl iuong ¥ tng fn Bling ch vol mt 25 z, miu ny 65 opin rdng hem sin aust ob et su kndng dh theo auy me "Gna VE mit ta hoe 8 e8 due e6ng the oh sn phim cl bi i nbm sin 28, ng ta cn im hal tp, A Hen Tnéy MPL, 9a IY VI phi eda hm sin ut theo LO th Lam {iu nay bang cdch hb vi Ky Yt (1+) sau 86 Wy nl 20 1 8 c6 ty tiza meta, TuaNg W, {4 c6 MK, my lay phn hm an aut eo K ‘s chs Ve met iodn hoc, 4 idm ta ef tu the nein phim cb dn, hy th ¥ vo Nm in st ei raring ee i te my Mong duang vl cae cng tue fue bly vé vin phém cin bin. viral 85CHUGNG 4 TANG TRUONG KINH Ti Vain d® tang trucing hod: toay Ming cb mdi me; ching qua chi 1 chige do méi duce Khede ein i ‘edn fo 10 mot vin dé mud thud, ludn ludn ghien citu: a6 8 si tea chon gia James Tobin eu dat duce su tang trudng wi thd 16 tang he he miy qua thé he Khde vd ahd oe luomg hing hoa va dich vy 1én -20 han, DE hin fat tang tring kinh- cdc nha kinh tsi dung Lieu phin dah téng thy nip eia moi neudi d nay ca MJ ting gap 3 fan nd 1950, edn ining ta 66 thé quan sit thay su kha bet vé me ‘ng git eée nuse vio bat kj nam ilo Bang 14-1 tinh bay thu nbapbinh quan div ngute a 12 nue dong dan nit the Bi MS dg da eh ; i hs hp 228 ao wing Nigeria chi dat 929 49 ta, ‘hua bang 5% con s6 ni ‘Mp. mn ous 6 lige vi GDP - mot ehi trong nn kinh t& GDP thue t€ hin OP thee du ngudi ting hom esp do. Phin tich xem tai sa0 mic song ney cing tang, ching ta phai hoa chinh phan teh cis minh 4& m6. ed nh thay di dién ea theo thi pian trong nén kinh 4 Ching {@ muon Lam cho phn teh ea minh mang tinh chit dng, nga la ging mtb phim chs Khong chi a bie anh chup, Mo hinh tang tring Solow chi ra inh hung ede et ‘ign, (le tang dan s6 va vign bo cing nghe dci vi sy tang truing theo thi sin fucng, Mo hinh cdn xc dink mot vai nguyen akan gay ra sy kde bigt ln vt nde sing gitla cfc nie, ‘Nhiém vu i theo Ia phan eh xem ehh sich kinh tinh huding ti mie sing {Eu sie lane mic song aby thé mio, Mo inh cia ching tal ca s'dé phn teh nbing Jif de quan trong aha trong kinh t€ hoe nhu: Higa nay nén tgu dng bao nhieu eh fone ca rién kinh w va nén tet kigm bao nhieu cho tuong lai? Vi tgt kitm eba ate Koh te bing div tu, nen tit kigm quyet din Khoi lugmg tr Bin ma nin kink oo a phe vw eho qui tinh sin xu taong la. Luong it kgm cia én kinh & ehiu le dong {Me feD vA hin ic ea ede chinh sich ma chish phi thue hig. Vige inh gi ahing chinh sich ny doi hoi phi higu duce ehi phi va ich Ivi xa hoi cia eae mie ult Hine Khe nhau. Bang 4-1. Su khde nhau vé mic sing gia eée nude nam 1990 Nae Thu bap du nau (40 la) My 22.063 Nhat Bin 17.791 Tay Bite 17385, Me-hiced 6.550 Lien Xo e0 (1989) 627 Bra-xin 4.684 Trung Quoc 2671 In-d0-ne-xi-a 2.329 Packi-xtan 1.631 Bang-ladet Las An Do * 1.280 Nicgioerica 929 44. Tich lay tu ban Mo hinh tang (rung Solow etio bict su gia ting Khoi Luong tu ban, lye luong lao ding va tn bo cong nahe tae dong qua Iai vi nhau nh the ndo va ching doh humg ‘Gi sin hngng ra sao, Buse di tien ds thiet lap mo hinh la phan tich xem eung vi eae AA 89 pai ba aba Sooching ta 66 thé kiém tra ditu nay. Nou cdc nhan t6 thu duge sin phim can bien cita minh, thi tham s6' di nhién sé cho ching ta biet bao nhieu thu nhdp dupe dnb cho Ino dong va bao nhieu cho tu ban. Téng s6 tien long ma ching ta da biet La (PL x L) chi don gién bing (I - a). BA vay (I~ a) Ia ty wong cia lao dong trong Sin lung, Tong tu, tng thu nhap ea tw bin (MPK x K) bing «cY va ofa trong cia tr bin trong sin twong. Ty I¢ thu nhap cia lao dong so vdi thu nhp cia tw bin [A (1 ava. va day chinh Ta ditu mi Dougias 44 quan sit thiy. TY trong cba cdc nian (6 chi pho thude vao tham s6 «, khong phe thude vio kh luong wn hay lao dong hay {inh trang cong nghe duge bidu thi bing tham s6 A, Nang s6 ligu gin day cong phd hop vi ham sin xuit Cobb-Douglas cho thty ty trong thu nap eis lao dng so véi thu nhap cia tw bin My tir {ies 1992, Mac di 6 nhigu thay d6i trong rén kinht€ suot 4 thap ky qua, tj Ie niy 6a {inh 6 con s6 0,7. Phuong thie phan phi thu nbap nity o6 thé dé ding ty sin xual Cobb-Douglas, trong dé tham sé a bing 0.3. 2 3 2 5 ‘TY trpng ca ao dong tone tg th ap 2 ° 19451950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 19k) 198s 1990 199 Nam Thu nhép cia lao déng vdn chin hosing 0.7 ting thu nip trong. mor hosing thd gian dai. Hong s6 gin ding andy eta trong whan 15 a bang ching cho su ing dén cia ham sén xudt Cobo-Dauglas. (Chi tiew wren duce tink trén ca 366 ligu trong 101 Bhodn thu fhdp qué din cia Mj. Thu nhdp cia Nguén : 80 Thuong Mai My. 86 inh 3-14. TY trong cia lao dng trong téng thu nhap a0 dong la phan thi lao tra cho ngubi a0 dong. Téng thu nhap ta tng cita thu luhdp tt 1a0 déngslo’ nhudn céng ty, lei sudt rong. dh uhdp vide 3 vad Kid hao, Tine mid cia ngudi chit so hitu ‘thong dige dua va tinh tod ndy, vind ‘bao gdm ca thu nhdp tiv lao dong va thu snhap ier ban) ink 3-14 im 1948 ii bing ham Bai tap va van dung bé sung 1. Gid sir him sin xust I ham Cobb-Douglas wi @ = 0.3 a, Tw bain va lao dong abn duge ty trong thu nhap [8 beo nhieu cx. ita gs xy a8 ‘elm lao dg ng 10% (0 bp ; > ig sin tm Un ag 67? Gi i we in? Te og the 7Ring ha Gn hung nbu thé nic ti gud tinh eh Hy te bin, Dé fam vice my, ching kit dinh Ino dong va cong nghe kong thay di. Tigp theo, ching ta nt Iong Hire $e ny, tne Het Blog ech BS sung thm ning thay di tong ie ham Ino dons sau d6 cho phép cong nghe thay di Cung va cau vé hang héa Cue vi ctu ve hing ha ding vai tr trung tam trong mo hinh Gnh ve vin kin A ia ching ta 6 chuong 3. Diu ny cing ding di wit mb hinh Solow. Ging ale trong chung 3, cung vé hang hos quy6tdinh mic sin lung duye sin xuat tat moe thee K*, da wen than khdu hao, nén ki lug tu bein bi thw hep, 5 8 Rta Khoi twung tw bain mi cong ahan Hinh 4-4, Bau tu, khsiw hao va trang théi ding inh 44 cho thiy chi e6 mot hoi tung tr bin duy ah fim cho daw wr bing kha bao, Nu in koh dat diye diém ny thi ki ong a bin Kone thay d6i theo thi Bite doa ZEtt® Him cho m6 thay doit ds tw v2 Khu hao va ddd Bh neo ity d6 66 nghia tai Ki Iwung tr bin may, AKO. Ching ta ros day 1a trang thai ddiong cia ki mg tu bin vi ky hig idk 94, Tién tdi trang thai dimg i i i han ca. én kiah &. Ne kinh Trang thi dimg biéu thi trang thii can bing dai hai ver sti tang tit my ci an, bit Ké nd xt pit wi ko hag tu Bin bao hice. is init kin wut pt ve a aomg tb hp hom trang th dmg, ching han Bing ki wong binh 4-4, Trong time hop my, di tu in hom Kh ao, Tho thot J ean, Kh Tuomg c tin tgp tue ting edng wi sin Tuemg eho wt Kh dat dn trang this slime k* 4, Tio nv, iit inh xt ph we KN Huge in Kn am | hngthan Teng tng apy, om i os i an anh fhom mie thay the. Kh luomg tw bin giim va nb vy vin tién dn teang th dng, hi hoi lung bin dat ti trang ti ng, dv a bing Khu ha vis thot hang te bin khong ting, ma cing khong gm, iy bang sé Tién téi trang thai dimg: Ching ta sit dung mot vi du bing s6' dé tim hiéu xem mo hinh Solow hoat d lam the nit d vig 061 trang that dime, Git i ham sin xuit: DE xe dinh him sin xuat cho mi eOng nha M0), ching tw hiy ehie ef ai vé cho Li Thay YL bang y va bin di, ching ta 66 Thay kK/L, ham vay a than cm FF yok? | h tren es thé wit thanh Phung yok lngng mi cong nbn bing ean bac hal eda Khoi lug tw bain mdi cone ahaa, sg oh 30% sin omg dae ki (03) mens mint ‘au bling 4 BE hodin think vi de nay, 10% Khoi luong a fxn bj haw mim mi mdm (5 = 0,1); va nn inh Ubi don vi tr bin mdi cong nhan (k=4). Bay gid, ching ta hay xem digu g° xa niga kin : AT 95Ching ta bat dau bing eich xem xét qui trinh sin xuat phin bé sin hung trong ‘nam thitnhat. Theo him sin xuat, 4 don vj Khoi lugng tw bin t3o ra 2 don vi sin phira mdi eOag nhan. Vi 70% sin lung duye diinh cho tieu ding, con 30% dé tit kiem Vv’ dau te, nén e=1,4 va i=0,6. Mat khic, vi kha hao bing 10% nén 8k=0,4. Voi dtu te bing 0,6 vi khaw hao bang 0.4; me thay di khdi Iuumg tr bin Ak phéi bing 0,2. Vao «fiw nam the hai, kh luong 1 bin midi cong nhan bing 4,2, Bang 4-2 cho thay nign kinh (tig ign ahw thé ni qua eéc nim. Méi att, kh Ing tw bia duge b6 sung va sin ung tang len, Qua abigu nim, nga kinh té dat trang thi dmg véi 9 dom vi tw bin mdi cong ahan. © trang thi dmg ny, me dau tw (0.9 ding bang kh tung tw bin hao mda, do vay khoi layne tr bin khong tang va sin Iugog cing khong ting. B Bang 4-2. Tién ti trang thai dimg: mot vi dy bang sé Gia din: y = VE 03 5=0,1 k ban dau = 40 Nam k y € i ok ak T 4000 2,000—“1.400 0,600 od00 0,200 2 4200 2045143561500 LS 3 4395-2096 14670829 oad 89 4 4584 1499 0,642 0.458.184 5 4768 IRE 1,529 0655477 OTR 10 5602-2367 16577100560 - 0,850 2 7321 1,706 1,894 081207320080 100 8,962 2,994 2.096.898 0896. 0,002. 3,000 3.000 + 2,100 0,900 0.900 0,000 Ngoii eich theo doi tin trinh cia nign kink t¢ trong nid nam dS tim ra trang thai ding, cn 66 eich tinh khie dom gin hain, Ching ta da bidt 7 Ak = sitk) 8k Phuong trinh nay cho bit k thay di nh ths no theo thd ian, Vi AK = 0 tai trang thai dimg, nén chung ta biet ing (= stk) - 5k 96 hay twong duong véind 1 keith) = si Phuong trinh ny Ei m@t ech dé tim trang théi dmg céa kh6i lugng tw bin mdi cong nhan k*. Thay vio vi dy cia mink, ching ta dude: KOK = 0,3/0,1 Bay git bin phuong hai vé, chung ta e6 kr=9 Nhu vay, kiGi twong tu bin mdi cong nhan 6 trang thi dimg bing 9. Két qua nay hing dinh ket qua tinh duge cho trang thi dimg trong bing 4-2. NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG 4.1, Sy tang trudng thin kj cia Nhat va Dice [Nhat va Dae i at teu hop thin cong v8 tang tug kinh 1, Me db ign nay hig Ihe su eung ve kinh tf, nhung vio ndm 1945, nen kinh ete ea hai nude do 10; vio tinh trang én loan, Thé chit Id hy hoai phn lin Knot ugg te tin, Song hing thap kj sau chin tranb, hy 18 nlng nude dat ky tye ve te do téng trum nhanh ching. Trong khodng tr 1948 den 1972, sin luong binh quan du ngubi cia Nhat tang 8.2% va Dae tag 5,7% hing nam, trong khi MY chi ting trutng wit} 1e 2.2%. Ligu nhing kinh nghi¢o sau chin anh cia Nhat va Dit c6 ding ngae nin khOng tu xé theo g6e dd cua mo hin Solow? Ching ta hiy xem xét mot abn kinh 16 trong trang thi dime. Gid si hie tanh di ph hy mo phan tu ban. (Troag hinh 44, Kho ugg t bin gidm tr k* xudng ki). Khong ai agge nbién nes sin tune ngay tap te idm xubing. Nhumg néu tj 16 it kigm - te ty trong sin lung duye danh dé it Kiem. va dau tw ~ khong d6i, thi nin kinh ts tit qua thoi KY ting trang cao. Sin huong tang bai 1 vi Khoi gng tr bn abo hon, s6 tu bn dave bd sung thong qua Cu tw Tn hom kindu hao. Mic tang truoag eno ny tigp din cho dca ki ven kin t¢tién Sa trang. {hii dmg truse day eis nd. Vi vay, mae di vice phé hity md: pln te bin trong chien ‘tanh lam cho sin luvng ngay lap te ei xu6ng, nhumg vio ng nim sau, 18a kin 16 dat mie tang truing cao hon Binh thing. Stang trwng "hn kj" che Nhat va Duke ‘mi nhieu ty bio kinh doanh di nd i 1 dieu ma mo hinh Solow dy 30 cho ese nude bj chien tanh phi hay phn Kin tw bin Tuy nien, eel IY gid bien tuyng tht ky ny khong don gin chu vay. Gida hai nue nay va MY 66 sis khye bigt quan trong Khe, d6ng vai tr then chot trong thank {una kinh t@ eda ho. So vai MJ, c Nhat va Dic dnb ty Ie thu nhap cao hoa cho tigt kkigm va dw tu, Do vay, ho dit dave trang thai dimg khge. Dé hiéu duge dy it hon si hie biet gita ede aude, ching ta cin xem xét tic dOng cia ty Ie tiét kif ke nha. TKTVM oyNhiing thay déi ctia ty 18 tiét kigm rn a By xem i gk xy ra vi mn kin CK 6 it Km tng a 4s shnh ho cho sy thay di abu vy: Ching ta gi din ring ven Kio {€ xuit phat rang tray ad He lem 5 v8 Kg tr bin Sav, ty We ee ee si gy ah he Wades dich chun en phi ten Ti mie ue kien Ur nets bn ban du ky mg devin di dé Baty ee hee tay ae a 8 cau ho, ahung kd hom tw bin vi heh {ity a. Vi vy, dt eae tom Ki hao vat bin ting he te kee dat ti trang thi ‘Hing 1 ka" oh KS ong tu bin va im I cao hum rng th done ‘MO hh Solow chi ra rng 012 tg ig 10 eno then eh q hit quvet din koi lucy AG nan 7 trans thai ding. Nev ty 1 ti Kiem cao. nen hin te ob 0b eh amg te ban 8 sein Lang ten ham, Nei 1 fe 1 ‘gm tip. nen kin’ 18 8 kh tang bn va sdn luong thep. “ " i tet Kiem va tang wing kink e6 mn quan nu thé no? Ti kgm eno hun din dén ting true ahanh hor ne 5 . nhumg chi trong thi han nein, Su gia ting ty le mii Ney ts 4 Wing ti cho 0 Ki nn inh te datcoge es at ‘ding vn et kinh 6p ue dy 1 lt Ki 6 mie ao, m6 dy th doe as ues, “S8in mg. cao,nhung Khong thé day ti mai mat I ng cing one 3k Ty sty Teanga | Teng ni amped” > dna re E hi omg'ts Bin mi eng uhan Hinh 4-5. Sw gia tang ty 1@ tet kiem Sue sia tang 018 tit kgm s ha § in te 0, jin doi 61 moi Kh hag tu bain che tebe. Bai vy, 8 im eho hd sik Siem dich chuvtn en trén. Tai trai tat dmg eit, bay git dtu tw vie me kay hao. Khoi laong we bain tang ten cho wo Ahi dat duoc rang thai dig mdi vi ki cong te bain vin tem ca he. 98 NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG eee 4-2. Diu tu va tigt kiém @ nude gitu va nude ngho ‘Theo mo hink Solow, néu mot qué gia dinh tf 1¢ thu nhap cao che tict kigm vi iu ts, n6 s& 06 khoi Ivong wr ban & trang thai dime 16m hom vi thy nip exo hon. Kei Ian Iy thuyet nay ed nhimg ¥ ghia thye tién quan trong. Di nhien né es thé gop phn Iy wii si Khe biet ln ve mic sing gid eée nude. Hinh 4-6 [a bidu do fi quy ve sé Tieu eda 113 nude. Hinh ny bao gom hidu hét cae nén kinb 18 ten thé gigi, (N6 khong bao gm cde muse sin xust diu Téa Ldn vi cde nue XHCN trong thoi kY ny). $6 liu cho thy méi quan fe twong quan thuda git 6) Je sim Tuo dim cho tiét Kiem va thu nhgp div nga. Cate nude 6 ty led ww ea0 hw MY va Nhat thuiing e6 thu nhap eno hon, trong ki ese nue 66 sy 1¢ fw ee thip johu Zaire va Chad e@ mic thu nhap tp. Ding nhw m6 hinh Solow dy bso, ay le dau far a you t6 then e16t quyct dinh mot nue gid hay nghéo. 100.000 0.00 ey ‘Thu bp Su gui 1989 tihng lg) os 10 202s 3038 Wo ‘i ng % si long bin gun 1960-1989) Minh 4-6. Bang chimg quéc (é vé-ty 1é dau tu va thu nbp du ngudi rye tung biew thi thu wha dau ngudi tia mdi nude. Daw te cao gin vii thu nnhap daw ngudi cao, ding nbue md hinh Solow du bio. Big do hoi quy nay chi ra kink nghiém tia 113 made, mai mai die big thy bing mor dim duy nuit. Trac haan iets ah 15 16 dt ke mdi made, e6n Ua 994.2. Mite tu ban @ trang thai vang (Ching tx da xem xét moi quan he gida ty Ie vit kigm, Khoi hamg tw bin va thu hap 6 Wang thai dime, Tie theo, ching ta pin tich sem mae tich ly ur bin nity ki {6i wu, Sau day trong mue 4.5, ching ta s€ tim higu xem chinh sich eda chin phi fam thay di ty ett ie nh the nio. Nhung trae het tong me nay, ching ta trinh bay 19 thuye! lant ev x cho nhimy quyet dinh ehinh sich nhur thé. DE git cho phan tich eda minh don gin den mie cho phép, chting ta gid dink ring cic nha hogch dink chinh ‘ch 6 Ehi ning quyet inh bat kj ty Ket kiem ni eta ngn kinh t€. Thong qua vige stuy dinh 613 tit Kiem, ho etn quyét dint trang thi dmg cia ntn kinh te. Ching ta x6t xem ho s& chon trang thai dimg ni, So sanh cc trang thai dimg Khi chon u fia phe ton trang thi dmg, mue teu e4n nh hoach dinh chfah sich 1a. toi da oj mguii trong Xa ho. Ban tin mbi new khong quan tam dn kh tong tn tong ni kin thim eh mgay ci sn mg, Ho eh quan tn dn rm hang hia va dich vu thé teu ding, Do vay. at oach dink ein sch hi Sign mun chum trang thik dig dem lai mde vou ding eae aha. Trang ti dmg o8 tee ng caw nt dave go mie tch tay ty hm nie dia theo qu tie ving (co it trang ha wg) chy i Bg 4, Lam the wae dé biet nen kin t€ e6« trang (aii ving hay Khong? BE tr caw hoi nay, trade het ehsing (a etn tinh mie gu dig mdi cOng nhan trang thai dime, Sau 115, chung ta 6t xem tang thi nv tao ra, me rgu ding ao nile bg h nue tiéu ding msi ce nhan cr trang thi dim, ching ta bit dw tr cng hat thie back win quike din yresi Chuyén ve ching ta dave enyei Ticu ding bing sin Isumg ti dau tw, DE tah mute tie ding tai trang thai dmg, hing ta chi vite thay ede gi tr trang thai ding eda sin kang tw vao cong ‘ngetre, Sin lung mi cong nan trang thai ding Bang fk), vit k* Kh ng 1 bin abi eOug nbn 6 trang thé dmg. Hon th! nif, trang thsi dimg, dau tang Abate hao 6k®, Thay y bing f(k*) vii bang 8k ‘ong thie tren ehiing ta es Hk) = 6k 100 ding 6 trang thai dig bing sir lugog. ti kha hai luyng tr baw tang them gay lim cho sin tummgeao hon, Phuomg trinh teen ei ra ring ti hao & trang thi dime. Phuong trink ny chi 9 rin ra hai te dong doi w6i sicu eding-¢ trang hii dmg: n fnhung nhigu sin ligmg bun pai si dung dé thay the kh lung tu bain hao mén. eye vi tr efel mot ham Itinh 4-7 v8 ding sin fgmg va Kha ho orang thi ds ; cia khii luyng tu biin «trang thai dimg, Tren hinh nay ehi e€ mBt Khoi lugng te ban toi dah tou ding «te trang thai vag 1g vA Kit hao ‘trang thai ding Kiss amy in as eng han ‘firang ti ing . Tiew ding 6 trang thai dims ding ti daha tiéw ching dace goi ta wang thai vang. Khai lung ew bin & eang thi vag hae ky higu la va thew dang duage ky Inéu la e. Hinh Sin Ding eta nb kinh 12 dpe sie dung dé tien ding hode daw tu. Trong trang sta ding, daw tr bing kh hao. Bai vd, iéu ding d ergng thai dimg bang sein lucang fik*) tric Kady hao BR*. Trang thai tw bin fim giim tigu ding, w sin lung tang cham hon Kh hao, Trong truing hep 6 cing do doe va BO lotDE lam cho vain d® may Khe di doi chat, ching ta hiy gid dinh sien kinh 46 xust hat mot mic tu bin k* mio dé va ring cic nbd hoach dinh chinh sich ed dinh {ang Khoi lung tw bin len ti k*+1, Sin lung tang them sé bing f{ke+1)i(k*), te in phim can bign cia tu bin MPK. Lacing khfv hao ting them cia mot don vi tw bin 8 sung 18 6. Nhw vay anh huing rong cia vige-ting them mat can vit bin 46k veh ‘eu ding 18 (MPK-3). New koi long tr in 6 tang thi Vang, th si gia tang Kha {img bin edng fim ting teu sing vi sin phim edn bien eda tu bin Ién him tle Kea hao, Neu Kho Iuomg tr bin mee eao hom trang thi ving, thi su ga tang kos {Ame tu bin sé Tim gid teu ding, vi sin phim etn bien cia tr bin ahs hon ty te iu hao, Do vay, digu kien dat duge trang thai Vang 1a MPK =8 “Tal mde tu bin trang thi ving, sin phim cn bien eda tu bin bang 6 Ie kid 4h. N6i efch ki, si phim edn bien eda tw bin tri) Ie Khu hao bing 0. Can ohd Ping sgn kinh t€ khong ww dong tic ti tang thi ving. Vige ita chon KON Taong tu bin & mot trang th ding nt dinh, ching han tang thi ving, dee Pane WO! QuyCt din chon & Ie tet kigm nhat din. Hinh 4-8 biGu thi trang thi dim, Ri) eet kigm duge xe did t90 ra mite tw bin € trang th ving. N&u t 1 it Xam 20 han ty 1¢ ge si dung trong sinh may, kh ong tr bin 6 trang thsi dig Ea cao, Ne tj Let Kiem gus dh, ho tum tr bi Stang thi dmg sé qua thi. Bk ‘Sin mg 28 hove a “ogden tae a act Hinh 4-8. Ty 1¢ tet kigm va trang thai vang Co mor Ie tit kiém tae ra. mite tw bin S traug thai wang KS. Su thay dd 18 18 side ‘Kiem sé lam dich chuyén dung sftk#) vi diéu nay dy nén kink re chuyén tdi trang ‘thai ding vii mie siéu ding thlp hon. 102 So s4nh cac trang thai dimg: vi du bang sé Chuing tw hy Sem xét trudmg hep nh hoach dinh chinh sich etn ina chon tran: tii dimg cho nen kinh «€ sau day. Ham sin suit-vin nhu trong cing ta y= vk Sin Iuomg mdi cong ahan bing ein ble hai cia tw bin tren mdi cong nhan. TY te kia hao vin 12 10% tu bain. Lim nay ahd hogeh dinh chinh ssich chon tye tit kigm s va bull vay day 1a trang thsi dimg cia non kin 16 ‘BE xem xét KE eve ma nhd hoach dinh chinh sich e6 thé la chon, hiiy nhé la phung trinh ding v6i trang thai dimg sau dy: v6 va git phuong trinh, ching ta due k= 100 Binh phuong hai Do vay, ty Ie ti¢t ki¢m 0,5 tao ra trang thii vang. Mot cdich khie dé xée dinb trang thi ving Ia sit dung sin phim cin bien cia tw bin, Doi véi him 1 MPR Se Suu Kei sir dung ers “hie trén U6 tinh tosn, chiing ta ghi gid ti cha MPK-8 trong ce trang thai dmg khée a. 0 hai bt eu6i cia bing 4-3. Mot Tha nia, hay chi 5 ing ¢ trang thai yang, sin phan es. ion eb ban trit khiiu hao bang by 103Bang 4.3. So sinh céc trang thai dimg > Gia dink: y s i ” ake oF MPK —MPK.5 0000 00 00 00 ° o ou 10 10 ol 0.9 0,500 0,400 02 40 20 04 16 0.250 aso 03 90 3.0 09 210167 0.067 04 150 40 16 24 02s o.025 os 50 25 25 0,100. 0-000 06 6.0 36 24 00083-0017 07 490 10 49 21 oot 0029 08» 64.0 80 64 16 = 0,062 -0.038 09 RIO 90 RI 09 008604 10 1000 100 100 0.0 0050 -0.050 Qué trinh tign téi trang thai vang ‘BAY gi ching ta hly xt van cia nha hoach dinh chin sich mt eich thue ts hom, O teér, ching t gia dinh ni hoch dinh chinh sich e6 thé lua chon dye trang, Inti ang v8 a hooch dinh chinh sich chon trang thi ding e6 mie teu dong oo Dial ha Mes kinh 6 dat duce 6 max trang ht dmg king phi rang thal ang seal 8 xy ra view ding, da tu vit bin Ki nn kinh Le chuyéa tr tang thes “ize AY sang rang thik dimg Khic?Ligu te dong eda qua trnh chuyén d6i eo gan “nha hoach dinh ehinh seh tim ech dat duge rang thai ving khong? {Chine a phii xom xt hai treme hon: nt kinh tbat Qu wi Ki lung bin ‘on hom hod nh hon Khoi lugng te bin trang thi ving. Trutmg hgp eb quan te ban iy abi kh khan hon co nha hoach dinh chinhséch; n6 bude nha hoach dinh chink ringtal & sinh ich loi ci teu ding bien ti va tieu ding tung lat Nh chime ta ‘VIMY G mac 45, tinh Kinh may 8 phé bin & Raw het cdc én kinh ke cd Mp Hat dau vi mite ty bin cao hon trang thal ving. Ching text rvdng hop rtm “inh ¢ Rut ht voi koi Iuomg ty bin Ién bom Kh lung ty bin trang this ‘ong ttubng hop niy, nha hoach dinh chinh séch theo dudi chinh sich edt vi eh 28 cit gin kh uomg tw bin 6 trang th din. Gi sir chinh sch nay thank In WA who th dim ndo d6 - poi T8 ty ~ 49 He tit kiem gidm te: se ob the dn tot sing thii ving, Hin 49 cho thay ditu gh xy ra vi sin tuo, ding vA du tu Kh tf tisk “$m gid, Si suy gidm ge tet kigm ngay Hs Fim tng teu ding va grine da tw, Dau tr bay gi thap hon kia hao, cho aén ngn kinh te khong cdn @ trang thi dig na. Ki khdi luong tu ban giim, sin lung, tieu ding va dau tw dan dn giim ti trang {hai dimg méi. Vi trang hii dime nif trang thii ving, nn chung ta biét sing tien dang cao hom mic trae khi tf Ie tict ki¢m giim, mae di san Layne va du te tsp hon, ‘Sin ne 9) Tiew ding (e) Duwi i Th gin Fete Hinh 4-9. Bign php eét gdm Ggt kigm Ki xuat phat voi mite tu ban cao hom trang thai vang 1 gid d mite neang ing. Rhi hhc tong tu bein gid theo thoi gian, sd lung, dieu ding va daw cing gid. Vi nn inh t€ bt dw vet qué nbigu ww bein, nén trang thai ding méi cé mite thew ding ‘ao hom trang thi dmg bean de Hink nay cho thdy didu gi xdy ca d6i voi san lang, tu dang vd daw te thea thei sian hi nién kink (€ xuci phat vii kha luaang tw ban ton hon trang that vang vi (FF¢ thet kid bi cat gid. Bién phdp cat sid 15 18 ti€t kiém (1a thoi didin 16) ngay lip nie tam tang tiéu ding va dw Can lau ¥ rang, so véi trang théi dimg ci, teu'ding khong chi cac hom trang théi {ime mei mi con cao hon trong sust qu tinh chuyén sang tang thik ving. Neu Rh {uunE tx bin cao hon Ki uong tw ban 6 trang thi ving, th biém php cft giim tet kKigm 16 rang fa mot chinh sich t6t, vi n6 Kim tang tigu dimg ta, moi thi diém. Bat dau v6i mite tu ban thip hon trang thai ving. Khi rén kinh W xutt phat gi ‘kh6i lagng tu bin thdp hom trang thi ving, nha hogch dinh chfah sich phii tang « le Aist kigm dé dat duge trang théi ving, Hinh 4-10 cho bigt ket qua cia chinh sich ting tj ' iet kigm. Su gia tig Ie tet kigm & thoi diém to ngay lap tie fim gidm tiea ding sling du, Theo th ih. ya tng dt im cho Kb ue tu in tng, Tong qué trinh teh Jay tw ban, sin Ivong, tiéu ding va diw tw dan cin tang len va dat ti trang théi dimg mdi, Vi trang thai dimg ban dau thip hon trang thii vang, cho nen su sia tang tit kigm e6 thé dn t8i mic Lieu ding cao hum so vei diém xust phi 54 105Sin tg) Tis ding) Bia tw) — Tang ue ke Hinh 4-10. Bign phép tang tét kigm khi xusit phat V6i mite tu him thip hon trang thai vang Hiah nay cho thy digu gi say ra doi vi se len, teu ding va dau te the thot sien Rit ntm kin 16 dt dt vi ‘nang bin nh ham rang tha ving vd 15 I it kin tng len, Su gia tang 1618 {ict Kim (ai thi didn to) ngay kp te fam gid rdw ding vd du te tang “003 Lieu sw gia tang tit kiem din t6i ta hong? C6 thé dat duge digu d6, vi tieu di dat duce trang thai dimg moi ddi hii ban ‘mite tong img. Khi kai tang tw bain eo thi gan, szin hang, tg dling vai da tccting tang, Vi ng kin txt phe voi qua i we bdn, nén trang thai ding moi 6 mie tien ding cao hon trang thai ding ban di ing thai ving e6 tim ting phic Iyi kind te lang & trang thi dimg cao han, Nhung vige fay phai eft gm tieu ding, Ha lu § rng, «teu ly nguge voi ruong hop itn kinh w& xuat phi 6 mae tren trang thi ving. Khi je kinh tf xu pht 6 trang thi exo how trang thé ving, th eu dimg ea hom tong swot qua tinh tr ve trang théi ving. Khinén kink 16 xndk phat d twang thai evo hon {rang thal vag, qué trink dat 16% trang thd ving 140 ra nate tiéu ding cae hm tai mot (hot din. Khi nin kink 1 xudt phar & trang thai thdip hon trang thdi ving, qué crinh dla 16 trang thd vdng dd hi phe gin wi ding itn tai dé tngtiew dng trong wong tai. Vige quyet dink xem o6 nen tim ech dat t6i trang thei ving khong 1a mot didw het ‘eho khan, v1 sO Iuong ngui tieu dig thay d6i theo tdi gian, Vige ds duge trang i ving dem lai me cao nit eta tiew ding trong trang thi dig vi bi vty e6 lot cho thé he mai sau. Nhu vay khi bn kin tf xust pht 6 mde tap hom trang thi vang, vige Jatt trang thai vang di oi pli tang dau ty, qua ds ng ign tai 106 ‘sim tieu ding eda the Ki pha quy6e dinh xem 66 tang mde tich Tay ur bn hay khong, nh hoach dinh chin sich phai so sink phe li ea ee the he Khe ahau. Nha hoach dinh chiah sich quan tim niu hon dy thé he dvcmg thi e6 thé Khong theo dui chin sch dint trang théi ving. Nguge fai, nha hoach dinb chinh séeh quan tam nhu nhaw dei tt cic thé he sé lua chon chioh sich dn si trang thi vang. Mae dd the be hin tai phi tieu ding it hon, ntumg nhitu the he sau duoe loi khi nin Kind té dat ti trang th ving, Do vay, mic tich ly tr ban U6 phy thude chit yéu vio chd ching ta can ah nu thé nao gia ie cathe hg hidn tai va tong Ini, “Qui te ving” trong kink tinh ni vi cing ta ing “kay che chi moi ngutsi nh Khi con ein Wi su che ch cia ho" [Neu tin vao ditu rin nly, ching ta s8 quan tim iG tit cd ee thé he. Trong trum hop 4, vige dat duce Khoi lung tu bin «trang thai ving 18 phuemg dn tra ~ vi dy 1s 1y do ai sao n6 dupe gai li "Trang tha: vang” 4.3. Sy gia tang dan sé Mo hinh Sotow ea bin chi ra ring qué trinh teh lay tw ban chua dis dé Iy gi sw tang truimg vimg chic. TY 1¢ tit kiem cao tam thoi din ti ng truimg eno, nhumg nn kin t¢ 66 thé tién den trang thai dime v6i khoi luong ts ban va sin tong khong thay i, Dé Ly gid sw tang trang vang ehée mi ching ta quan sit thay &hidw het miei noi tren thé pidi, ching ta phi md rong mo Ninh Solow dé dua them vio hai nguion khie ciia su ting trusng: su gia ting dan s6 va tign bo cong nghg. Trong mse my ching ta bi sung sur gia tang dan s6' vio m6 hink ‘Thay vi-gia din dan so khong di ain da teinh bay trong ede mye 4.1 va 4.2, bay git ching ta gid dich rag dan s6 va luc lugng lao dong ting vi 16 6 dlink n. Vi du ‘@ Mj, 47 Ie tang dan s6 hing nam bing 1%, nén n=0,01, Biou nay ¢6 nghia li néu mot nam nao 46 ¢6 150 trigu ngudi lao dong, thi trong nim ti, Ie Iugng lao dong bing 1515 trigu (1,01 x 150), trong nam tiép theo bang 153,015 trigu (1,01%151,5) va ww. Trang thai dimg khi cé sy gia.ting dan sé ‘Su gia tng dar s6 anh huéng t6i trang thai dimg nhw thé nao? Dé tra Loi edu hoi nay, chuing ta phéi phan tich xem cing véi sy gia ting dan sO, dfiu tw va kha hao thay. di nhur thé mio va ching tée dong dén qué trinh tich lay tw ban trén mBi cong nan ra sao. Nhu di néu & tren, dau tw Lim ting khoi Iugng tur bin, edn khdu hao Lam gidm n6, Nhung bay gid edn e6 them you t6 thir ba lim thay d6i kh6i Iugng tw bin mdi cong ‘nhiin: Iugng cong nln ting Lam cho tw bin trén mdi cong nhan gidm xu6neg. Vin qui ude nbs trea, ta 66: K=K/L Ib kh6i Iuong tw bin mi cong nha; y=Y/L ta sin lume moi cong nhan. Nhung cin nké ring s6 luong cng nhan khéng edn e6 dint ‘ahi traie ma, ma tang I8n theo thi gia, 5% 107Su thay Ui cia Khoi luong tr bin mdi cong nban bang: Ak=i- (64 mk Phuomg trinh niy cho thay dw tu méi, Khiu hao va sur gia tang dan sinh bude nnhe thé ato én khoi luung tu bin m6i cOng aban, Daw tu lam ting k, nhung khsiu hao va sy gia targ dan sO am idm k. Tren day ching ta d3 bist phasing trin nay trong trudmg bop din so khong di (n=O), (rm sik) a ie k a Fee ds hl tuomg tin Bi cng na Hinh 4-11, Su gia tang dan sé trong mé hinh Solow Gioing nhve kiuie hao, su gia tang dan si a: mot nguyen nhin tam cho khoi eam, fur bd mdi cng nbn giim di. Goi w la 15 U6 tang dar s6 va 8 li 1 Ie Bhd ha, thi (8 hk i eam dw tw can thigt dé sii? cho khdi heang we bain méi cong (Ching ta o6 thé coi (6 + nk ed ra vite di han k kidng thay di Bow nem Kin 1 d tang that ding, du tw phdi ean boing vii kha hao va sue git (6 + mk. Trang thai nay duge bid thi bing giao diéin cia hai ding dé dan $6 nie dau tu vita dit dé git cho khoi {ung turban mai cong nbn khong thay déi, Mie daw tr vim di bao gm ed mie Khai thao tu bain high 66 bang 8k. Neots bi wba Fang tr bin sia tang can 38 im gidim mite ang bi cho mdi cong nhan. Phuong trinh trén cho ching ta bic 2, 6 en bao gm ci phn du tu eh thiet dé trang cho nhimg cong nin méi. Khoi luyeg dau tu etn thiet dé dj nay bang nk, vi c6 n cong nhan mii tinh cho mdi cong nhan hin €6 va we nb cw 1a kh ng Si fh ly tu ban tren mi cong nhan theo ech giving nwt knaiu hao, Khu hao kim giim k do sit hao mon, edn sw gia tang din $6 Kim giim k vi pha ri khoi wang te ban ra cho nhieu eng nin hen. 108 Dé sit dung due phuvng trinh ten, ching ta thay i bang sftk). Phung 66 th viet tai nb sau: ai stk) = (3 + ake DS xem yeu {6 mao quyét dink Khoi Iuomg tu bin tren mdi eOng nan tai trang thé ding, ching ta sit dung hinh 4-11. Hinh may mé rong phin ich cba hinh 44 dé bao him ea inh hung eda str gia tang dain sO, Non kink (€ 6 trang théi dmg Khi Kid gg tur bin trén mai cong han khong di, Ching ta ky higu gid tri dimg eta k la k*. New ken ham k®, thi aw tr kin bom mee vita di, nén k tang. Néw k Ion hom k*, dau tw ahd thom mie vin di, do vay k gi, 6 trang thai dimg, tie dang duong cia du tu d6i véi kh lung tw bin vita di: db can bing tie dng Am eta kid hao va ty Ie tang dan s6. Nhu vay, 6 mite k*, ke va it = Sk" + nk*. Khi nén kinh t€ dat dua trang thai dimg, du tw phye vu che hai muc dich, Mot plian cia n6 (BK*) thay the bo phan tu bin bi hao mon, phn edn Iai (nk*) duye dink dé trang bj eho eong nba mi Dou tu, au tw via dt un <— Ks hg nmi cong tn Uinh 4-12, Anh huding cia su gia tang dan s6 . han. Boi vay m3 hinh Solow deebdo rang (ic nbn inh #6 vi 1818 ng Lin $6 cao Jha sé emit bain bi cong wn thdlp Jum va bail vy 08 thu whip tha’p ho, TH 16 tang dan 36 tang (én daddy dung Digi thi su gia tang dan $6 kh hao en phia trén, Trang thai ding mdi eb Ahi Laem. bain Bi ecing nd hip 5d 109NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG Tac déng cia sy tang din sé Str gia lang dan s6 Fim thay d6i a hinh Solow eo ban tren ba phuong din. Thi nit, 26 gitip ching ta Iy gidi sy ting trudng ving chée mot eieh chinh xe hom. 0 {fang that dmg vii sy gia tang dtm si, Khoi lugng tu bin aren mi eOng Ahan khOny 6s, oi vt 6 huong eng nhiin tang Wi tF 1 n, tng Khoi Iuong tw bn vi sin luong cing ting vGi ty Ie n. Do vay, surgia ting din 36 khong thé ly gid sr tang tng ving ec ela mie sing, vi sin Iuong md’ cong nbn & rang thai dimg khong thay dé Nhung su gia ting dan s6 e6 thé ly git su tang tung ving che cia tng sin amg (Th hai, su gia tng din s6 gdp ching ta 1y gidi ti sao mot s6 ause gidu trong Ni mt 6 nunc Ki Ini nghéo. Ching ta hiy xem xet inh hutng cia su gia tang dan RE Hinks 4-12 cho thty ring neu 1 te ing dan 56 thay Gi wnt len no, kh lnong te bin mai cong nhin & trang thai dimg gid tt K*L xtong k*2, Vi k* thip hon va vi ¥" = fik*), nén sin luung mdi cong nkan cing ths, Nhu vay, mo hinh Solow du bic ing nude e6 47 Ie tang dan s6 cao hen e6 GDP dtu aguéi thay han, Cuci cing, su gia ting dan s6 sinh heing 16 diéu kiga xe dinh mae ic iy tr bin itang thi ving. Dé tim duge ditu kien nay rong nen kinh tf e6 s¥ gia ting dan ad ching ta vin tich hinh nhu trase, Tieu ding mBi cong akan fa ery Vi sin mong 6 trang thai dim 1a 1k) va dau tr bing (B 4n)k*, ching ta e6 thé viet phuung tinh ticu ding tai trang thii dimg abu sau: fk) (5 + mk ‘Sir dung ech tap twin nhw phn trade, el ‘hoa tiew ding k* fi mie théa man slew kign ding ta ket lugn ring mie tw bin 61 da MPK = 8~n ny MPK- tang thi vang, sin pki edn bien eat bin irks hao bing 6 te tang dan 5 4-3. Sur tang din $6 6 nude giau va nude nghéo Theo mo hinh Solow, au gin 6s 1j 18 ting dan 36 cao s8 €6 Khoi hung tu bin {fia agus trang ths ding thap va nh vay thu nha biah qutn cing thip, NOt een ic aude ting din $6 cao Fam cho dit nue nghto di bi Khd 6 thé duy an mite Ho bin binh quan cao khi s6 luong cong nian tang qui nhanh. Ching te hay xem s6 lieu quic LE dd thy rb dieu ds, 100.000 vr Coas Su gia tang din 6 (% aim) (binh quin 1960 - 1989) Bang ching qude té vé sy tang din s6 va thu ahap daw ngudi Minh 4. Hink nay (a bieiv dd hii quy cia 113 mnie NG chi ra vitng eae nui vi 1 Ib ting dan $6 cao 6 xt haing ¢6 mite hw tnhap dl ued tha, nines inh Solow dw bao Hinb 4-13 fi bigu do hoi quy ve s6 ligu ca 113 nude mA ching ta di xét trong nghien ci tinh hung 4.2. N6 cho thay efe nude e6 11g tang din s¥ eao thing c6 {hu nap dau ng thip. Bang elvng quée t€ may phd hop vei dy bio cia mo hinh Solow ring 19 le tang din s6 Ta yeu 16 guy dinin mie sing cia mot nue. 4.4, Tién bd céng nghé Bay git ching ta da them tign bo cong nghé, ngudn thi ba cua ting trudng kinh {E,vao m6 hinh Solow. Tren diy mo hah eb ehing t dBi dinh mg quan he khong Gi gita du vio tw ban vi lao dong véi sin luong hing hoa va dich vu. Chiing ta c6 thé bign d6i mo hinh dé bao ham ci se gia tang agoai sinh cia nang Lye sin xuat unHigu qua cia lao dong Dé dtm iisn bo cong nehe vio mo hinh, chung ta phi bat ew tir him sin xust lien ket ting tu bin K va lao dong L véi ting sin luyng Y, Ching ta di bigt him sin xuat Y=FKD Bay gid ching ta viet him sin xust dud dang Y= FKL xE) Trong dé E ta bign mi 66 ten Ia higw qué phi nh higu bit ci ci thin, iio dy tao dong. Higu quit cia lao dong ia X8 hoi ve phuung phap sin xust nhu: cong nghe hign 6 duge qui cia lao dong tang len. Hu qua cia lao dong cin phan anh site khoe, tay nghié cia tue luung lao dong, Bigu thie L x E 13 luc Iugng lao dong tinh bang don vi hiéw qué. N6 bao him s6 Iugmg cOng nhin L vi higu qui cin mdi cong nin E. Nhu vay, him si ay ni ing ting sin lung Y phu thude vio s6 dem vj tw bin K va s6-dan vi higu qua eda lao dong Lx E, Gi dinh dom gid ahat ve tig 60 cong nghe 18 nd Fam eho higu qui cia tao dong E tang theo ty Ie e@ dinh g ndo d6. Vi dy nu g = 0,02 thi mdi dam vj lao dong 38 tea nen higu eusi hon 2%/nam: sin luumg ting cu Ive lang lao dong ting them 2%. Dang tic bo cong mghe nay due goi la c6 tink chat md rong lao déng vA g due goi li ty le tig bo cong nghe ms rang lao dong. Vi lye lugng lao dong L tang vii ty We n va hhigu qui eta m6i don vi lao dong E tang voi ty Ie g, nen s0 dom vj higu qui eda lao dong Lx & tang vii tp Ie nt, Trang thai dimg véi tién bd cong nghé Vige bigu thi tign bo cong nghe dati hinh thie mi rong lao dong lam cho n6 gidng nh su gia {ang dan s6. Cling nh phn tich nén kinh t€ bang ahing s6 hang tinh cho indi cdng nhan, trong plita nay ching ta phn tich atm kinh t6 bing ning sé luvny {ink cho mdi dom vj higu quit cia lao dong, Hay ky higu k= K/(L x E) fk tw ban tinh cho mbi dom vi i¢u qui vay = Y/L x E ) ki sin Iugng tinh cho mdi dan vi higu qua ‘oi nhimg din’ ngbia nay, ching ta vin e6 thé viet y = 1) tien hanh nw U2 Lim véi se gia tang {urban theo thai ian bay gid chuyén think: Ak = slik) - (540+ gk Phan ich cia ching ta ve nn kink 1 dug «tan 83, Phang tinh chi ra sy tiga trién ed Bigu thie mei, Lien qua hot Tuomg tu bi vi higu qué tang, den g- ude We dO.tié bo cong neh, Mah thanh vi K li hb cho mdi don vi hieu quai cia ao dong. New g cao, si) Larmg dom van va Kh uang tw bain cho mei don vj higu quit e6 xu hum gin, 112 Nhu duge chi ra trong hih 4-14, su b6 sung ti¢n bo cong nghg vito mo hink khong. {am thay d6i ding ké phan tich cia ching ta ve trang théi ding. Cé mot me cia k, kj hieu bing k*, ma tai d6 kh6i lugog tw bin vA sin lugng tinh (én mBi don vi bieu qua. ‘khong thay d6i, Trang thai dimg ny 1 trang thai cAn bing di han cia rién kinh te. Grn-gk sft) iat, ut vita dit co k si tug tr bin mai dom vi higu qui Hinh 4-14, Bua them tién bp cong ngh¢ Viee dua them sign b¢ cong nghe md 56 lugng dom vi higu quai do tin 46 cong rong lao dong voi 15 (@ g dnh hucng tdi nghé 6 xu hudng lam gidm k Trong han tich cia chiing ta theo cdvh het nue trang thai dime, dau we stk) logl trt se sue gia tdng din 56. Bay gids k duoc dink gid sir cia k da Khdit hao, 54 gia tang inghia la Khoi lvong tw bin tréa mdi don dn s6' va tiéin b6 cong nghé Wj higu qué ctia lao dong. Su gia tang cia Anh huéng clia tién bé céng nghé Bing 4-4 cho thay 4 bién s6 then cht biéu hi¢n nhu thé nao trong trang thi dmg v6i tign b9 cOng nghé, Nhu ching ta via thay, Khoi lugng tw ban tren mdi don vj higu qua k khong d6i & trang thai dimg. Vi y=f(k), sin Iupng tren mdi dom ¥j higu qui cling khong thay d6i. Mac di vay, ching ta cn nbé ring s6 lugmg dem vj higu qua trén moi cong nhin tang v6i ty Ie g. Bit vay, sin lung mbi cong nban (Y/L = y x E) cing tang v6i ty Ie g. Tong san phim [¥ = y x (ExL)] tang véi ty le nt Khi 6 tigh b9 cong nghé, mo hinh €6 thé gii thich duge sy gin tang ving chde cota mite sng. Neha 1, ching ta i chi ra rang tign b9 cong nghe o6 thé din den siz tang tung ving chéc cia sin lugng mbi cOng nhan. Mat Kise, 1 I¢tiétkigm cao chi «lin dé Ie tang trang eao khi cha dat duge trang thai dng. Khi ren kinh w d3 & ‘rang tii ding, 1} Ie tang truing cia sin loong mdi cong nha chi phy thude vio tién xm D6 13bbe cong nghe. Md hhinh Solow chi ra rang chi cé tin bb cong nghé méi gid thich diaae su gia tang khong ngitng cia mie sbing Vige dua tien bo cong aghe vau'sn6 tinh cing fam thay di dieu kign dat 6 tang {hit vang. Trang thi Vang duye dink neha fa trang tha’ dimg t6i da host me tigu ding {ren m6i dom vj higu qué eta Ino dng, Voi Kp lun twang tw nh da sir dung te dy hing ta e6 the ehting minh ing vie ding ten mi cam ¥ higu qua értrang thai dig cP =f (EN BY KE Tieu ding trang thi dimg dgt mae Wi da khi MPK = 8+n4g MPK -8=n +g hay Nghia 1, tai mée ty bin 6 trang thai ving, sim phim cin bién rong eta tr bin (MPK - 8) bing Fle ting tragmg cia tng sn Iumy (n + g). Vi trén thye 16, efe nén inh te tril qua ed su gia tang din s6 va isn b9 cong nghé, nén ebving ta phi sit dung ais kign nity d& ckinh pid xem ebuing ec it hay nhiew tu bin hm trang thii vane. Bang 4-4. Ty 1é tang trudng 6 ign bo cong nghe ing thai dirng trong mo hinh Solow véi Bin Ty 1é tang trading] 0 0 g nee ‘Tw bain tren moi dom vi higu qua Sin twyng tren mdi dan vj higu quai Sin luumg tea mdi cong ahan Ting sin luyng NGHIEN COU TINH HUONG a 4-4, Tang truing ta trang thai dime 6 My bay gid, sau khi dit dua tién bo cong aghe vio mo hinh Solow va ly gidi se tang tring ving eh eda mite xing, ching ta cin tim higu xem Iy thuyet eda minh o6 pia hap vi thue té hay khong. Mo hina Solow d bio ring tién bO edng nghé lam cho nhieu bin s6 dong thai ting len. Trong irang thai dimg cd sin tung va Ue ban moi Ong nbn dou Lang eting tye va tidn bo cong ngh. S6 leu cia MF trong 40 nam qua cho thy ci sin Iuumg va tr bin mdi edng nha eu tang vii tye gin nhuenhau - khodng ram, 14 Tic b0 cong mghe cing tic dong den gid nhan 16. Bai Lp 8(€) deus) chuwmg yeu au ban ching miah Flog trong trang thai ding, ttn lung thye t tang bing mile ang «cia tin 9 cong nghe, Song gid thue thre té eda tw bin khong thay di Nhu vay, ahing dy bio iy ding voi MJ. Trong 40 nam qua, ton lung thye t€ ting khodng 2%nam, in bing mite ng GD? thye t¢ teen mBi eOng nhan. Nhung gi : ing thu nhip the 16 eia te ban chia cho khoi lung tu bin) vin nb et icici 4.5. Tiét kigm, ting truéng va chinh sach kinh té ‘Saw khi sit dang mo hinh Solow dé lam £0 moi quan he gid ese ngudn Khe nhaw cist tang trutmg kin 16, bay git ching ta e6 thé ding ly thuyét dé dink hudng suy nghit ci minh Ve ehinh sich kinh 18, O day, ching ta d8 e&p dn bon vin dB ehiah sich sau: 1. XG hoi chiing t1 nem tict kigm ahieu hay i? 2. Chinh sich 6 .hé tie dng ttt kigm nhs thé nao? 3. Chinh sacl can dae biet Khuye' khich loai dau tw nao? 4. Chinh sich tie dong nf the nio ti t6e do tign bd eding nghe? Danh gid ty Ig tiét kigm ‘Mo hinh Solow cho thiy tu bin va sin luong & trang thai ding phu thude vio tj le ict kigm nhu thé'ndo. C6 mot tye tet kigm ta0 ra trang thai ving cho chang ta mic ‘icu ding vi phic li kinh t cao nhl. Ket qua niy gip ta tr loi vie d chinh sich «tow tien; tf Ie tiet kigm wrong mién kinh 4 qua cao, qua tp hay vita pl Neu sn phim edn bién cita tw bin wir kha hao lem hom ¢y Ie ting trueing, thi én inh t dang host dong i luong tw ban nhé hon mée trang thai vang, Trong truing hap nay, si gia tang ty H tet kigm eb thé din ti trang thai ding v6i miée tigu ding «a0 hon. Newoe lai, néu san phim can bien rong cia tw bin thap hon ty Ié tang truing, thi ngn kinh t€ dang hoat dong voi qui mhigu ty bin va ein cit gina ty Is tit kigm, DE inh Bi qué tinh téch laf tr bin cia mot quée gi, ching ta cin so sinh ty Ie ting ‘rucmg va ty sudt loi nhujn rng eda te bin, Vige so sinh nay doi hoi pha ude lung 1 1¢ tang trang (n +g) va si. phim cén bien ring (MPK - 5. GDP thye t€ cia MJ tang binh quan 3%/nam, née n > g = 0.03 Chuing ta €6 thé ug luemg sin phim cin bién rong clia tu bin nhiy ba naan 16 sau: |. Khdi luong tw bén bing khong 2,5 fan cia GDP hing nim 2. Khiiu hao tv bin bing khong 19% GDP. 3. TY trong thu nhap cia tw bin trong sin luong bing khoiing 30%, BF ils‘Nhin (6 1 cho bist k=2,5y; nhan t6 2 cho biét 3k = O,ly. Do dé 8 = ky = (Oty V,5y) = 0,04 Nhw vay, mi nam tr bin bi hao mon khoing 4%. Dé tinh san phim can bien cia lu ban ti nhen (0 1 va 3, ching ta cin nbd Iai ket lugn 6 chuong 3 ring tu bin duge tnd theo sin phim cam bien cia né, BUi vay, TJ trong thu nhap eda tw bin = (MPK x KYY = MPK x (K/Y) Bay gid thay ee con s6 rit ra tt nhan U6 1 a3 0,30 = MPK x 2,5 Diu nay him ¥ MPK = 0,3/2,5 = 0,12 _,,. Nit vay, sin phim can bien cia tr ban bing khoing 12%/ndm. Sin phém can bign ‘pag cde bin (MPK - 3) bing khoing 8%/nam, eao hon ty Ie (Ang truing Binh quin 6/nm, Ty le loi nhuan cao cia tr bin him ¥ kh6i luong tu bin & My hign thi 4 i Luong tw bin ign thap hon mac {rang thi ving. Phat hign niy cho thiy rng eée nba hoach dinh chinh sich nén tang 1) fe tit kigm va dhu tu. Tren thuc (, vige gia tang mic hinh thinh tw bin nhieu nam | nay 1a. mt wu tien cao trong chinh sich cia Mj. Thay déi ty 18 tiét kigm Chih sich cia nha nude tée dang ti tet kitm theo hai eich: true tig qua tst kigm cong cong va gidn ticp qua cic bien phép khuyén khich tiét ki¢m tu nhan, Tict kigm cong cong la gu gia thu nhap va chi teu cia chinh phi. Neu chiah phi chi nhieu hon thu, sé din ti thm hut ngin sich va mae tit kim am. NhurdS thay trong chuong 3, tham hut ngan séch lim kin at dau tu, Khoi lung tw ban gidm sit do thant hut ngan sich la mot phn ginh ning ng quée gi chat len vai cde the he mai sau, Mit ic, néu chirh phi chi ti¢w it hon mic thu, sé c6 thang dur ngin sich. Khi dd chinh phi 66 thé thanh ton mot phan ng quée gia va thie dy dau tit” Tict kiém tw nhan cing bi dong béi mét loat chink sich cia chinh phi. Tu: Kong dave da vio minh Solo, quyet dk tt kigm cas hp sie dat re hace lit mi kgm demi: een Ut kgm cag eno tek aeinedee wh ‘ip. Ne tus cao din va thu aap ea urban La gdm it kiss heated Vim gi lot. Niu quy dn ta at thus cng hg Kou het ‘hut dave thong qua nhm Tam tng It va Khuen Bch tt isnt aan ee 16 5 ‘aha kinb (6 e6 quan diém khie nhau ve mie do phin ing eta it kigm tw nhén 46% v6i fahing bien phap khuyén khich nay. NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG 4-3. Bio hiém xa hoi va tiét kigm Mot chuong trinh cia ehinh phi thuimg duce coi Li e6 ie dong dé til kigm ter jnhan la he thong bio hiém xi hoi, Bio hiém xi hoi A he thong chuyén giao cuye thigt ke dé duy tei thu nap cho ngudi gia. Thue tien lung dénh vio ngudi dang lam vige duce sir dung dé tri cho ngubi gid. 118 théng niy fim gidm nu cau dt kigm cho thoi ky ve uw vi bai vay c6 the fam giim mae teh lay tw bin, Cho nen, dé ching Iai se suy giim tit kiem do he thong bio hiém xa hei gay ra, nhigu nha kinh t€ khuyén nghi nén edi ech he thong bio hiém xi hoi. He tkéng hin ry 18 eh€ dO tra ki ban nghi hun - phan Kon nguon thu tir thut hign tai (te tien dong bio hiém) duge tri cho the he ngudi gid hign ta. MOt khuyCn aghj fhe théng bio hiém ‘xi hi phi duge rai srg roan 69. Theo ké hosch nay, chinh phi chuyén ttn thu cia the he dang sting va Lim vige vio qug tin thi, sau dé tra cd g6e Iin lai cho chinh thé fhe dé kh ho ve hur. Theo che do bio higm xi hoi thi try todn bo, su gia tang tigt kigm cng cng bi lai phian suy gidm trong tict ki¢m tw nha, Vi tic dong cia bio hiém xi hoi d6i véi tit kitm quéc din e6 J nghia quan trong hu vay, nén nhiu nha kink t€ di tim eich uée lung anh tung cia né. Song bing ching khong 15 ring. Béi vay, khong cé su nhit ti vb vige ligu bio him xa h)i e6 lam gidm tit kiem quo gia khoag vA néu c6 thi giim bao nhieu. Phan bé dau tu cila nén kinh té ‘Mo hhinh Solow dua ra gid dinh dom gi hod 18 chi ¢6 mot loai tw ban. Song irén thé gid thuc ra ¢6 nhigu loai tu bin khae nhau. Cae doanh nghi¢p tu nln Au tw vio ning loai tr ban truyén thdag nhur xe di, nh may Iuyén kim, va ede loai tu bin méi nnhw méy tinh, ngudi my. Chinh phi dau tu vao nhieu logit on cong cOng - duge goi [a cose ha tang ~ nbs ding 88, chu Ong, he thong tieu nude, Ngodi ra, com e6: mot lout w bin nda fa vin whim le - 6 Ta kim tite, tay nghe mit ngudi lao dong tigp thu cuge thong qua qui trinh gio dye va do to ti thd nien thicu cho dén khi tring thinh, cing nhu trong qué trinh lao dong. Mac di mo-hinh Solow eo bin chi bao gor ty ban hién vat va khong c6 géng ly gidi higu qui cia lao dong, xét theo nbigu phuong dien, vn nha Iye twong ty nhu tw bin hign vat. Cong nhur tu bin bign vat, né lim tng nang Iye sin xuat hing hod va dich vy cia chiing ta, Vige ‘ing cao von ahan Ive cin tdi nbtng khodn du tu vio gido vign, thu ign va thdi gian 47,Geet hoach dink chinh sich dang tim eéch thie dy ang tung kinh phi Ei yet vn de 1 Tai hin tw bin nto en thet nhit dot vor een kee N6i eéeh Te fot tt bin nto dem gi cho ching ta sn phim ein bien coc air acy chung, Siz nn oach dinh chink sich c6 thé da vio thi trudng dl phe be nnguibn tit kigm diieith dw tr khic nhau. Nhing nginh 6 xix phim ean bien seta ban oe a tien sin sing nhit trong vice vay tho li sul th rung de are i st clot bik die, Nhieu nha kinh tip lug ring chinh phi chi can too as ha ari Binh dking” cho cic loai ur bin khée nha - ching han damn bow ring he théng. trang con bie wt cde dang twin. Khi do, ehinh pha eo aha ee vio thi ‘euing dé phan b6 tu bin mot eéch e6 hneu qua bin. Neu quan diém nay diing, thi ich Io\ cia qua tein 6 16 cao hon du bio etiam hinh Solow. Hon nia, mote jhueg ngoai bien Ién hon ede dang khéc. Vi eng ngosi bien cong nghe eao hon xy dng nha may yen Lamy ce int Phi phi tfah duve quy mo anh hung ngoas hien kinh t€ nghi ng@ thanh cong cia vin de rt Kh khan, ot dang ws bin ma ehioh phi nt het phi quan tam fa tu bin ‘cong cOng. Chinh he rune wong va dia phuong thutng xuyen pha quyetdjuh xem o> vay tién d8 ti try ho wige xAy dng dung s,cbu ong vi he thdng trang shaven es khong. Trong cue he ae tanh ct tng thong nim 1992, ang elt vin Cliaton lap lets ing nude My GRU a2 vo co ha tang. Ong aud quel rng mie du tea ee, co sisha, na fa ess cho nn Kinh ¢ how dong voi ning sutt cao hum. Y heey nay man fw ei su hung dng lin phe phin rong gid ede mes Lis Song tit e8 dew ‘ht tf ring vige tinh todn sin phém bin cong cong rat khd khan, Tur jualin to ra ok mhuae elt d& tic toin eho cOng ty oF hee ‘bin, trong khi ich ‘oi eda We bin cong cong phan tén how niu. {tutng ving chée cia thu ng méi cong nhan ' nbién, md hinh Solow coi tién b6 cong nehe 118, Ji bicn ngoai sink; m6 hinh khong ly zidi nd. Rat tiée ngudi ta chua bigu rd cae ySu to quyét dinh tign b6 cong nghe. same phép mién thud d6i véi qui trinh nghitn cxtu va tiga khai, Cie co an shin Ee ia nh ‘Té chite Khoa hoz Quie gia tro cfip cho cong tic nghién ctu co bin, ie) ‘cing, he Gi trinh bay 6 trem, nhing nguivi ding bé chinh sich cong ngh¢ lap tute ee Ph , NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG _ 4-6. Su suy giim (7 1é tang trudng kinh té todn cau rong tng wa an i coh ow Anh ehh se pt ae 20 omg 9a a bi eng a 90 a tng ie kn ayn te hs Bie ye een tt gc ei 13 ang in ty 2.2 ag Con 17%. Cie mabe Khe ng ap pho pim sl te ty hte aghiom to Cie eng Wink nghion cd chi rng uy gi I tng 8 nguyen shin @sg gn sa ho hh gan shee Boat Hag hen si ee Fs oh Ie ug yl hn me hp mc i dame aha iy

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