Proc. 1Vth International Conference and Field Workshop on hantslides, 1285, Tokyo A New Method for Predicting the Failure Time of a Slope Fukuzono, T. National Rewarch Center for Disaster Prevention Tharaki, Japan srworsts 2 bosie formila en the ve of surface die st before the failure of a slope i propoued and if ta wade Clear that the curves written by mach seine of the caverse pamier of eam poiseley OF surtare cispigcement axe divided into thes kinas St forme, these aie Linsar, cones and concave and Gacrease unifarniy in aay Gases Th the cage of a linear curve, che failare time 9! 4 Tine erseses the axis of abseissa. ted by the point at point at whack the strate: the faizsre time can be roughly p flope can be exactly predicted by Inthe ease of 4 sonuex or concave curwe, which the tangential lise at each point of the curve crosses the aziz of abscissa, Furtharnore, 1¢ Is clear that Lhe curve writtan by each tine svedicted youghly is linear. Se ene failure time can be oxaatiy sredicted py the point a which the Ftraigny line eronses the mer of avecisea, THe evailapility o: these mesnods is shown by azplication so same tyses Of = tees INTRODUCTION is 1/. Ast the factor can be decided mot before but after the failure, because the values o: whe pew method for presicting the failure are disfepant ab escn alone failure ine ofa" slope propose?’ in tase raper is a Ta eh ‘2 nee method fer pred: Tethed waung the! ver ines face Gisplace- the sailure tise suing the inverse punbe: host june before : locity ef aurface displacenent is propased Batto ant Ferformod many creep fy sie case of aquatson{2)y foe faclare eine can gests of sor! ert propoese that the inerement 8: pe causcess predicted by Fhis Sine te the logarsehn sf cesen. tite (ais he cane of eguation(s), the wine can be droportiona. to the Logazechn of strain tote {2} awact iy predieied By ging sare ehas tes rough inthe secondary crewp. That 16 Slore time known ae eigferent cine. , sven aoe BASIC FORMULA FOR VELOCITY OF SURFACE Aenuring that mequais | and tris che vine to fatigee at pach time (t] in tse stage of ‘The variations of surface diaplacemens in feretary creep, the equation uns agplics te paused by rainfall war eeadied in on\ct the failure tine of a slope (Salzer (porsmental models are saows in ibeshe That as Gna Serashina( i982) snd hoa tipt) = o-Log te) a2 . . atte toate @ AC fiat aeomer a0" Aas shere tris the failure tine and @ is strain rate, Babed cr these forru-as” (1) and (2), saite proposes aye whet are rongh predict ven hetnoga, by the strasn race in the secondary Greoe range, for long term and exact Sroduction by ealeiiat ion an grapnical snalyeie using tre foo Surface disp seenear or abeain juss before the Falluse In tho sermiary eres range. bar in the Pig. 1 Profiles of four typs of Lertiary cress range, some slope sallures whach experinental rodels. are not reormsented by the aguas ion (2) have heen Paporeed by Yamagneb? |137#). th these a portional mune of fhe logazithy of the Fukurony i280 failuee end the logarithm of he strain legarighn of a EE not unity as shionn lngreanes Jn propartion to] tne oger {seo @ in fig.2 and 2. The recation is has heen made clear chat che elelarion oF sustace c.cpTacerent log AcB+log(é)~ where A and 8 ara constancs: Maoed on the eguariaa(d) , Yanagcehs (1378) has propesed ther she failure’ time can Se exactly here x is down dicted by mwltaglying the tine obsaised Ts accelerations ex/er is ve Saito's setiog by ene factor of sorree=ieny Constants: gartnce displacanent: dk/dt! Sty: want 6 are us10") 40° Fiat, ton 205 a0” wuar,zon SZ yyr] oto amin, | Yo,t0 min. 10°} “Getoce failtire) 4} before failure) g enn. Zw. Pe 0 6 git Sy ‘20° 10" aotao" Velocity (ah) wo 104 vetoesty (avn) Pig.2. the relationship between the velocit and the acceleration of surface éisplacenant in the final stage of slope failure con the 40" and 30" loam slopes. 40° SAND, PLAT (2omin. to 3080. ‘before failure) Coy cf Acceleration , 20 fol a0 a0 welicity (ce/h) 10" 4 ig.3 Th relationship betonen the velocity In the scrlestion of srtece rene Sige tfcce ch flare of the sae slope with 2 conven ane #0" Tint bases ‘velocity (evn) Equation (4) is integrated for the range of ay as follows: ee age = fac-an™ cee). 3) da 1---8F » exp {a(tat] ~ ky a---GE ~ facd-2 i where ty trand tare constants of integral. @ Was ina range 1.5 to 2.2 in the experiments.” Also the values calculated from the Telationship between the velocity of surface Gisplacerent and the time to failore in actual slope Failure which vere prepased oy, Yoshida and Yachi (1984) are 1.79 to 2.13. Furthermore, the equation (7) is transformed a follows? togttet) = A-8-t09%@8) ~ were, ae-toglata-1)] ad 5 he ean to tne SgS9ETe6" SS SPHES" ABR RESENEE SI, Tepe) (8) He ‘Therefore the relationship between the velocity of surface dispiacenent and the time to failure just before the failure is generally representes by the equation (7) or (8)- ‘A METHOD FOR PREDICTING THE PATLURE TIME Equation (7) is transformed as follows: 3s faa-aj ep o where 1/v is 1/(éx/at), that 4s inverse nurber of velocity of surface displacenent. ‘The equation eiows that the curve drawn for each pint of t and 1/v is linear if a=2,convex SFidy2 and concave if 14)2 and that the valve uniformly decreases. Typical figures of the curve are iiluserated in Fig-4. In any case, the curve cane near to ty As the velcelty is finite, The relationship is not represented by the oqiation (9) at the near period of ty BUC the period is very short, so in this paper it ty is aesumed to be the failure time. me. Ww £ "vores taut? Se Salselty Fig. 4 ‘Typical figures of te changes Of the inverse minber of velocity of surface Gisplacment just before the failure. In the case of d=2, the failure tine can be exact iy predicted by a point tat which the Straight line of inverse number of velocity Grosses the axis of abscissa. Also using the Snveree numbers of velocity at two different times, the faiiure tine can be calculated as follows? (a0) In the case of d=2, the failure tine predicted by these methods equals the tine Predicted by Saito's method in the range of error Gf calculation and drawing, because the basic formula has the sare form. . In the Case of A€2, the failure tine can be roughly predicted by the point at which the Tangent line of the curve of inverse nunber of velocity at any time crosses the axis of abscissa.” Also the failure time can be exactly predicted by the next wethod.‘The equation (7) is differentiated by t and rearranged as follow: ) 1, a/v) pean a AGO), © ger ceg n ‘This equation shows that the curve dram for each value of (1/v)/(ai/s) /dt) and tis Shear Snovtnifornly decreases. So.the failure tine can be exactly predicted by the tine at which the curve is expected to cross the axis of abscissa. Also using the inverse number of Velocity and the increment of ones at two different tines the failure cine can be calculated by the next equation; Jv (@7e) fae meV (A/V) 72806 (43) (/w}/ (a1 70) at |= C1709 a7) 78), Furthermore, a graphical method based on the curve Of inverse rumbor of velocity 18 shown in Fig.5. Pirst, a tangent line is drawn at any point Qe which ie ina vertical direction ts the axis of abscissa from point T, on the curve, T% Is the point at which the tangent line crosses the axis of abscissa. Ais plocted at the point Minch ie apart from the sbecisea in a vertical Girection for the sane distance of Mk In the sane way, is plotted. The abscissa tof the point tat which a straight line connecting Bnd B crosses the axis of abscissa is the failure Corve of inverse number oF velocity w of velocity: Inverse nunbe: Ces . < % (ery (Reda ead Tire: & Fig. 5 Graphical method for Predicting the tine of slope feilure in the case of di 2. he theory is verified a8 follows By eqials (R/S in Pig.5., na TOT are’ auetitated for Than TO 7} That is - DTT 1, Wo: Aa eT Oe Also, RHR TeO Teang, TTT PTT/tan be == (14) As the Lines of Q, mand Q;Taare the tangent lines fn the curve of inverse number of velocity at the point Gand Q, (times are tyand &) tans =@BL2, can ge QM, Also, TrOsty Ost, Ost, TR /viy OTE /vh (6) the equations (14), (15) and (16) are gubetituted for the equation (13) and after the transformation, equation (12) is obtained. Another graphical method is shown in Fig.6. In this method, points and Pare plotted ina vertical direction not at points 7, and Ty but at points Twand Ww mater of velocity: ar ey Big. 6 Another graphical method for predicting the tine of slope failure In the case of AN2, APPLICATION FOR PAST SLOPE. PATLORE. These proposed methods were applied to sone Kinds of slope failure executed experimentally, In the past to estimate the avallabiliey. An exgmple which was applied to the failure of the 40° loam slope with a flat botton boundary, parallel to the surface ig shown in Fig.?-, The Curve of inverse number of velocity of surface Gssplacement is convex in the period from 60 minutes to 10 minutes before failure and Linear From 10 minutes to 20 seconds before failure. Using the tangent line of the curve the failure tine can be predicted to within an error of 1 minute ip che period from 10 minutes to 20 Beconds before failure. Also’ a curve obtained by 40° FLAT, LOAM velocity (nin. /om nF Inverse nunbel of velocity 60 50 40 3020 ‘Tine to failure (minutes) Failure Fig. 7 Variation of the inverse mnber of velocity and surface displacement an the failure cf the 40° Ioan slope with a flat bottom boundary Parallel to the syrface.4 graphical method in the fhe same figure. Ap 18 AOE constant aL be time, the curve ie nos linese, Suv the Zacture tine pebdictad by the curve ae ose whant Chas the tire predicted ay the crossing pozne of ehe Fangent line sf tae sores of inverse pamber of velocity and the axit of abocisns and the alacn Gnovher examaie wien sas applieg io che failure of the 39° loam stope with a fla: botton poundary parallel to the sorface f# shown in Piglh. ch this care, the ctlgve is linear at pinites before fa.uire, So she Failure tine be evactiy predsecad trom approximately 30 minutes before faizure by using only the curve cave of 452 ig shasn in 20 30" FLAT, LOAM 40 Tiserpe nanber of velocity nin. /am) Displacement (cx) Tine to &a! % 2018 ys tce fig. 8 variation of the inverse runbor of velneity ghd surtace cimplacenese in the Ceilace EF the Je" Loe slope with a fae bother sanevdary. parallel to te surface, Other oxangles which were spplied te the Faillve of the sandy tol. Siose re chown in Fig.3i1. Usuaity, the duration fren the beginasag cE surface mavement to the tiaal failure sh sardly Soil slope iz chneter chan tne one in Loam sue and the pattern 1s very comlex. Neverthioa the fe hime oun be sufficiently preascted by 40° FLAT, SAND Displacement (em) werse number of veLocity(tven) m Tine to tailure 7 (minutes fate Tig. 9 variacions of the inese ranber yeleity and sivtace disp!acament rhe Failure of she 40" sandy soi! slope vith a lat bottom boundary paralie. to the suctace, ~148- 40° CONVEX, SAND ey . ds ]°. 5 g t ge yeyl ere, s | 4 5 i aa 30 20 10 ime to failure (minut Fai-uee 1 teloe ity and sustage Steplacenecs ante fassaee of the a0) gang soul sobs wth a conse Botton Roundy 30° PLAT, SAND 2 30 a 7 wt a Bas 2 "MN # ao oer unane a Wasi & FOO! sctace ‘ Be te ent ‘. g g a0 30 20 190. i Tine te failure (minutes Poe veleesty aad surface displocenent in te Facluve of the 10” sandy go. stjpe wie Flat tertom Boundary pubelle: co the eueFaco, ‘two slope rodels having che ground surfaces, af 0 and 10 degrees pacaliel te the amparvinne Botton boundary wich morear aca both slams bounded by versizal steel walls, were prepared ta estimate ine availability af ths proposed method fo prediet the saiiaca cine as are shown in Fegeta ‘The sod layers ware made fron che eshesive soil of woleaase ach lealled KANTO LORY) having Siiquid-limt of 80.6 4, a pastseity sadex of Tees conesion ot 70 gent an ancl 6! internal Erictson of 20" order the Gry sencicy of 0.47 q/em and a waer content equivalent 20 Yoo i of ey weight. The initial condst-ons and major results of the experiresss are shown in Tane Lan svar view of Lie 20" s/ope model jist hafore the expersrent 15 Showa "a Photo. 1Widen :400,Unit:em ‘@Measurig point \ Consrate founte urpermiability) 30° LOAM, PLAT as supplies, ie raeatall n Center to: in Natienal Kese: Sariace eisplacerent were measured by reans nsoneters having the ae table 1 Initial conditions and taJor reaults of experiments so°alepe 30" slope Bey Soaey Gar) 848 Initial tater content (4) Lott Ralnfall anconcity mh 2 Paciuse tine nin) 28 40° SLOP MODEL, ‘The ale slope modal endecwent small scale collapse 4 hours 40 minutes 37 seconds after tne Beginning of rainfall. A final sliding surface is érawn by a broken line in Fig. 12. ‘Three curves of the inverse number of velocity of surface displacement obtained under experiment at the Reasuring point 2, 3 and 4 are Shows in Fig. 13. The inverse nunbers. of velocaty at each time were calculated by a Bigital computer fron the digital value into which a A-D converter changed the outputs of extensoneters and were plotted continuously by a xeY plotter. ALL cusves wore convex, so the failure tine could not be predictec exactly, but Fouhly, If Sne of tne Fethods proposes in ce cae af ANZ was applicé, if might be poscible =o predict the failore tine exazt.y. 30° SLOPE MODE, ‘The 30" slope node? underwent miédie scale collapse B nower oo minuces 4.96 Beginning of rainfal:. 8 ing) © Tevdeawe by s broxen Line it Fige Three earven oF inverse nudher af velocity of surface displacement ohtainea under cxperinent at tha measuring pointe 2) Jane 4 are show Sig. iy. Tae values of aazy tive ure abtained the sane way ar in the case of 40° slope nodel. In shia case, the curvag were linear from Wo'minutes before Esilare, tn spice of the face that the aradiesta of the thrne carver were iSserest enon neher, al. curves came toward a Rare point on the ain of qbecensa, that is che are tine, The vaiation of the ir or of velocity at reastring paint i 9530° tar, ‘nin. /o) eh Patture| ig inverse munber of velocity Fig.Md Variations of she inverse miner of volgsity anser failure of the 20 loan stone, monitored vith the felevision. These sew of failuze on a ore enown in Photograph 2 and Using these maungas the exact fusiure tine cbaid be predicted cont ssuously from approzinatery JJ minutes berore fallure and the enpecinent was closed suceesetul ly. / Prolo.2 View of GY pilateer plattues pura: of velocity under experiient Photo.3 reteer of wolocity under epee men. CONCLUSION Jn this paper. a new wathod for predict ing we Satire efne ne'a atope nan Boos propos. The major distinctive feazure of the tetred so tha the inverse number of velecsty and nek tie Gisplacenent or strat raze in surface 18 used predict the faslure tines Tre faiore ¢ise eas he easily predictes hy using 3 curve Sravn Gontinuovely by the invurse ninbers of velocity SE surtace displaceneat az gach time. Alea in Eases that cannoz bo exac=ly srediceed by Saitors Rethod, the rough failure tine can be easily Predicted hy using the cangent ine of she curve Bad exactly predected by straight line evawe Tele hoped that the pr in peact sal slope posed method wild apply sSilase ACKRONLEDGEMENT: The experinents were performed by using @ lavee ecalerucntall simulator on Natonal Ho Roki, 2 technician agsisted on the operation ef the sunuiator. this assistance ts gracefully scknowledged, RRFFRENCRS Fukuzeno, T. and Terashina, 4. (1982) Heseritanal study of the process of failure Ln cohesive soil slase eavsed by rainfacl (se Japanas2}, the Ropar of the National wesearch Genter tof Disanter Peavention, 28, pp. los 22 Fukusono, T. (1984) A method for predicting the Eailuse tine of a sancy so.L slope eaing she anwerse number of velogisy (24 Japanese, Proc. GF Dink Meeting of slapes Lanenlice soc! ety, BOB) Saito, Mand Dezawe, te (19613 ‘due to creep, Proc. af Stn 7 pp.315 348 Saito, M. (965) Porcusting the tine ef occurrence of 9 slope far-ure, fy PB. B7=54L. Yamaguchi, 3. (1978 in capanese), re. Of 6th Sone notions lajesl ide and sioze failure Land: ice Prevention aré Slone Stability 2, Sogo Doboka Laboratory, pp. M=24. Yoshida, 7. and vach:, ¥. (1984) On the velocity Gf Lendsisde (in dabanonel, Pros. of 23a Negring of Japan Landslide Society, pp. 136- 158