Qlda - VT

1-0
QUN L D N
P1. Tng quan v qun l d n
Phan Th Vinh B mn Qun l cng nghip

T: 0983.56.67.78
Email: vinhpt-fem@mail.hut.edu.vn / phanthevinh@gmail.com

Ym: ptvinhvn
2010-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL
Qun l d n
1-1
Ti sao phi bit qun l d n?

m bo vic thc hin d n tha mn cc rng buc, yu
cu
D n khp mi ni, s l c hi tt tham gia vo vic
thit k, thm nh, thc hin, qun l v theo di d n.
D n ngy cng c nhn nhn nh l vic xy dng, thit
k v thc hin ca chin lc t chc, thit k sn phm
mi, dch v v s thay i t chc
Qun l d n l mi trng l tng o to v la chn
cc nh lnh o tng lai
Qun l d n cung cp cu ni tt gip cc k s hay
chuyn gia t c v tr qun l trong t chc
Qun l d n
1-2
Ni dung
Tng quan v qun l d n
Phn tch, nh gi v la chn d n.
c tnh chi ph, thm nh ti chnh, phn tch ri
ro ti chnh, ti tr d n
T chc d n
Lp k hoch v iu phi d n
Kim sot d n: kim sot thi gian v chi ph,
qun l gi tr lm ra
Cc vn khc trong d n: xung t, ri ro.
Qun l d n
1-3
Phn 1: Tng quan v qun l d n
1.
2.
3.
4.
Khi nim, phn loi u t

Khi nim, c trng d n
Phn loi d n
Ni dung d n u t
5. Khi nim qun l d n
Qun l d n
1-4
Tng quan v d n (tip)

6. Cc chc nng qun l d n
7. Cc yu t thnh cng ca d n
8. Cc bn lin quan n d n
9. Nhng yu t nh hng quan trng n
s thnh cng, tht bi ca d n
10. Cc quy lut ca qun l d n
Qun l d n
1-5
Khi nim u t
Hot ng b vn ti hin ti nhm thu c
li ch kinh t x hi trong tng lai sau mt
thi gian di
L vic nh u t b vn bng cc loi ti sn hu
hnh hoc v hnh hnh thnh ti sn tin hnh cc
hot ng u t (iu 3.11 Lut u t 29.11.05)
Phn bit u c v u t? (ti u c

iu160 b lut hnh s)
- Thng tin
- c quyn
Xem xt u t di gc ri ro?
Qun l d n
1-6
Phn loi u t
Chc nng qun l vn
Ngun vn u t
Theo phm vi u t
Mc ch u t
Ngnh, lnh vc u t
Theo hnh thc u t
Theo c tnh ca dng tin (xem phn loi

d n)
Qun l d n
1-7
Theo ngun vn u t
u t bng ngun vn trong nc
u t bng ngun vn ngoi nc
u t bng vn CSH (vn t c)
u t bng vn vay
Theo ngh nh 16 ca CP ngy 7/2/2005 v ngh nh
112 ngy 29/9/2006
Vn ngn sch nh nc;
Vn tn dng do Nh nc bo lnh, vn tn dng u t
pht trin ca Nh nc;
Vn u t pht trin ca doanh nghip nh nc;
Vn khc bao gm c vn t nhn hoc s dng hn
hp nhiu ngun vn.
Qun l d n
1-8
Chc nng qun l vn

u t trc tip: Ch u t trc tip tham
gia qun l vn. Gm hai loi
o u t pht trin: gia tng gi tr ti sn
o u t dch chuyn: dch chuyn quyn s
hu
u t gin tip: Ch u t khng trc tip

tham gia qun l vn
Qun l d n
1-9
Theo mc ch u t
u t mi
u t chiu su
u t m rng
u t thay th thit b
Ch
Phn loi mang tnh cht tng i
ri ro gim dn
Qun l d n
1 - 10
Khi nim d n
D n l tp hp nhng xut v vic b vn to
mi, m rng hay ci to nhng i tng nht nh
nhm t c s tng trng v s lng, ci tin hoc
nng cao cht lng ca sn phm hay dch v no
trong mt khong thi gian xc nh
(N 16/2005/CP v ND 112 v Quy ch qun l u t xy dng
cng trnh)
Tp hp cc xut b vn trung v di hn tin hnh u t

trn a bn c th, trong khang thi gian c th - Lut u
t
Qun l d n
1 - 11
Khi nim khc v d n

D n l n lc ln v phc tp c to thnh bi
nhiu cng vic c lin quan ln nhau, nhm hon
thnh trong mt thi gian xc nh mt tp hp cc
mc tiu nh trc, vi k hoch v ngun lc
c xc nh r.
Qun l d n
1 - 12
c trng ca d n
Mang tnh cht tm thi C vng i gii hn vi cc c tnh cc giai
on khc nhau
Tnh duy nht:Mc tiu, nhim v, con ngi, lch trnh, vn khc nhau...
Cc mc tiu r rng v c th
Tp hp phc tp
Lin quan n nhiu hot ng,
Bao gm nhiu c nhn, t chc,
S tham gia ca nhiu chc nng
L mt thc th c to mi, xut hin ln u
Km theo cc thay i v bt nh:
Thay i gia cc giai on khc nhau trong chu k sng
Cc thay i do khch hng, nh qun l, s pht trin ca cng
ngh...
Thay i mi trng ca d n
Qun l d n
Vng i ca d n
1 - 13
Qun l d n
1 - 14
Phn loi d n
Phn loi theo mc ch u t
Phn loi theo quy m

Phn loi theo u ra ca d n
Phn loi theo ngnh ngh
Theo m hnh xy dng, khai thc v chuyn giao
Theo mi quan h gia cc d n
Cc kiu d n c xem xt:
D n cng nghip v d n kinh doanh
D n c s h tng v xy dng dn dng, k thut
D n pht trin v t chc,
Qun l d n
1 - 15
Phn loi d n
Phn loi theo quy m: ln-nh
D n ln: c c trng bi tng kinh ph ln, s
lng cc bn tham gia ng, thi gian d n di v
nh hng mnh n mi trng kinh t v sinh thi
D n nh: c c tnh ngc vi d n ln, khng
i hi kinh ph nhiu, thi gian thc hin ngn,
khng phc tp v nh hng khng mnh n mi
trng kinh t v sinh thi
Ti Vit nam: Phn loi theo quy m v tnh cht
quan trng A,B,C - phn cp qun l, u i
Qun l d n
1 - 16
Phn loi d n
Phn loi theo u ra ca d n
- D n u t mi
- D n u t chiu su
- D n u t m rng
Mc
ri ro
gim
dn
- D n u t thay th thit b
Ch :phn loi mang tnh tng i
Qun l d n
1 - 17
Phn loi d n
Phn loi theo ngnh ngh:
D n trong lnh vc cng nghip
D n trong lnh vc nng nghip
D n trong lnh vc giao thng vn ti
D n trong lnh vc thng mi dch v

D n trong lnh vc xy dng, th
D n trong lnh vc y t, gio dc, x hi
Qun l d n
1 - 18
Phn loi d n
BOO: xy dng, khai thc v s hu
BCC: hp ng hp tc kinh doanh
BOT: xy dng, khai thc, chuyn giao
BTO: xy dng, chuyn giao, khai thc
BT: xy dng chuyn giao
(B Build, T Transfert, O Operate, O
Own)
Qun l d n
1 - 19
Phn loi d n
Phn loi theo mi quan h gia cc d n
o D n c lp: Vic quyt nh u t d n ny
khng nh hng n quyt nh u t (thu nhp,
chi ph) cc d n khc v ngc li
o D n ph thuc
D n b sung: Tng li ch v/hoc gim chi ph
D n thay th : Tng chi ph v/hoc gim li ch
Thay th ln nht: d n loi tr
Qun l d n
1 - 20
Phn loi d n
Phn loi theo c tnh dng tin
o D n u t thng thng: Dng tin i du mt
ln
o D n u t khng thng thng: Dng tin khng
i du hoc i du nhiu ln
Qun l d n
1 - 21
Cc giai on d n
Xc nh u t
Phn tch v lp d n
Thm nh v ph duyt
Thc hin u t
Nghim thu, tng kt, gii th
Qun l d n
1 - 22
G1: Xc nh , c hi u t
C nhim v pht hin nhng lnh vc c tim
nng, cc u t:
Nhu cu kh nng p ng th trng
Chin lc pht trin kinh t
Khai thc v s dng cha c hiu qu
ngun lc
Thiu iu kin vt cht pht trin kinh t
x hi
Qun l d n
1 - 23
G2: Phn tch v lp d n

Nghin cu chi tit u t c xut trn
mi phng din: t chc, kinh t, ti chnh, k thut,
mi trng,
Nghin cu tin kh thi
Nghin cu kh thi
=> Bo co u t Thit k c s - Thit k k
thut
Cc bc trong phn tch v lp d n ty thuc vo
quy m ca d n
Qun l d n
1 - 24
G3: Ph duyt v thm nh

Thm nh v ph duyt d n c phn tch
v lp giai on trc.
Sa cha, thay i hoc hy b d n
c thc hin bi cc ch th:
Nh nc
Ch u t
Ngn hng,
Qun l d n
1 - 25
G4: Trin khai thc hin d n

Trin khai thc hin d n c lp ph
duyt
Thng c nhng sai lch so vi k hoch
c lp
Chim thi gian ch yu trong vng i d
n
Qun l d n
1 - 26
G5: Nghim thu tng kt v gii th

Nghim thu cc thnh qu ca d n
Tng kt, rt ra cc bi hc kinh nghim
Tin hnh gii th d n: Thanh l ti sn,
sp xp lao ng ca d n,
Qun l d n
1 - 27
Nhu cu/C hi
Yu cu
Chi ph/
pht trin
Tnh
Li ch
Mc tiu
kh thi
Ri ro
Cc gii php
Nhn lc
ch cht
Xc nh d n
Lp k hoch
Kim sot
Bo co
Thc hin
X l ngoi l
nh gi
Hon thnh d n
Mc tiu - Kt qu
Qun l d n
1 - 28
Qun l d n
L qu trnh thc hin cc chc nng ca qun l
(Lp k hoch d n, T chc d n, iu phi
thc hin d n, Kim tra gim st d n) nhm
t c mc tiu ca d n
Qu trnh ch o cc n lc v cc ngun lc
(thi gian, nguyn vt liu, nhn s, ti chnh)
hon thnh mt d n c th mt cch kinh t,
theo trt t hp l; nhm t cc mc tiu nh
trc ca d n v lm hi lng cc bn lin
quan.
Qun l d n
1 - 29
Qun l d n
Ai cn qun l d n?
Tt c cc nh qun l d n
Tt c cc thnh vin ca e kip d n
Ngi tham gia vo vic thit k, lp k
hoch, thm nh, ti tr, theo di, nh gi v
h tr d n
Cc bn tham gia vo vic thc hin d n
..
Qun l d n
1 - 30
5 giai on ca chu trnh qun l d n
Thit k
Lp
k hoch
T chc
thc hin
Gim st
thc hin
Kt thc
d n
Qun l d n
1 - 31
Thit k d n
Xc nh nhu cu v cc c hi :
Xc nh cc mc tiu ca d n:
Lit k cc mc ch ca d n
Xc nh s b cc ngun lc
Xc nh cc gi thit v ri ro gp phi
Kt qu: Thit k tng quan ca d n
Qun l d n
1 - 32
Cc mc tiu ca d n cn S.M.A.R.T
C th (Specific)
o c (Measurable)
Phn cng c (Assignable)
Thc t (Realistic)
C tnh thi gian (Time-bound)
Qun l d n
1 - 33
Lp k hoch thc hin d n

Xc nh phm vi ca d n, cc cng vic, kt qu
v cc chi tit k thut
D kin thi gian, chi ph v cc ngun lc khc
Ln tin cc cng vic ca d n
Xc nh cc cng vic cn c bit lu tm
Lp k hoch gim st v kim sot d n
Vit v duyt cng ca d n
Tho thun v k hp ng
Danh sch v lch trnh cc cng vic, m t v ngn
sch, cng d n
Qun l d n
1 - 34
T chc d n
Xc nh nhu cu nhn lc
Tuyn dng cc thnh vin d n
T chc nhm thc hin d n
Phn cng cng vic v trch nhim cho cc thnh
vin ca nhm
Kt qu: S t chc v nhn lc WBS,

LRC
Qun l d n
1 - 35
Gim st v nh gi d n
Xc nh phng thc qun l ph hp
Thit lp cc cng c gim st v iu khin
Tin hnh gim st v nh gi thng xuyn
Gii quyt cc vn v mu thun
Qun l d n
1 - 36
Kt thc d n
t c s chp nhn ca khch hng v cc bn
lin quan chnh
Cung cp ti liu v d n v a ra bo co cui
cng
nh gi cc nhu cu h tr d n trong tng lai
Qun l d n
1 - 37
Cu hi:
Gi thit rng bn nh gi d n ca mnh
vo giai on kt thc d n. Lm th no
bn c th bit rng d n c thnh cng hay
khng?
Qun l d n
1 - 38
Tiu ch thnh cng ca d n
Thi gian
Chi ph
Hi lng ca
bn lin quan
ch yu
Cht lng
u ra
Qun l d n
1 - 39
Cc bn lin quan lin quan ca d n

L nhng c nhn hoc t chc
C quan tm su sc ti s thnh cng (hay tht
bi) ca d n
C nh hng quan trng ti kt qu ca d n
(v cc hot ng ca d n)
Qun l d n
1 - 40
Nhng bn lin quan ca mt d n

Ban lnh o v/hoc ch d n
Ban qun l d n
Cc nh ti tr cc nh thu/ nh thu ph/ nh
cung cp
Nhng ngi s dng thnh qu ca d n

Cc nhm quan tm khc
T vn v c vn
Bo ch
Qun l d n
1 - 41
iu kin thnh cng quan trng ca d n

mc tiu d n
qun l d n
ng h ca cp lnh o
cc thnh vin trong nhm d n
phn phi y ngun lc
cc knh thng tin thch hp
c ch kim sot
thch ng vi khch hng
Qun l d n
1 - 42
Nguyn nhn tht bi thng gp ca d n

Ch c cc thnh vin ca nhm thc hin d n
quan tm n thnh cng ca d n
Thiu phn cng trch nhim
K hoch d n khng hp l v khng chi tit
D n b thiu vn
Cc ngun lc khng c phn b y
Thiu h thng gim st v kim sot hu hiu
Khng c s trao i thng tin
D n i chch mc tiu ra ban u
Qun l d n
1 - 43
Cc k thut qun l d n chung

K thut thm nh:
Thm nh ti chnh
Phn tch ri ro
K thut lp k hoch:
Phn tch cu trc cng vic
Lp lch trnh v c lng thi gian
Chi ph v thi gian (CPM phng php ng ti hn)
Cc cng c lp k hoch khc: Ma trn trch nhim, PERT
K thut kim sot d n:
Phng php gi tr lm ra
Khung gii quyt vn
Qun l d n
1 - 44
Cc vn qun l trong qun l d n

Qun l xung t
Qun l ri ro
Phn tch v to lp gii quyt vn
Thng tin
Lnh o v xy dng nhm
Qun l thi gian
Cc vn khc?
Vn g ni bt nht trong d n ca bn?
Qun l d n
1 - 45
Cc quy lut qun l d n (1)

1. Khng c d n ln no c thc hin ng thi
hn, trong gii hn v ngn sch, hoc vi cng mt
i ng nhn vin lc n bt u c. D n ca bn
khng phi l d n u tin nh vy.
2. Cc d n tin hnh rt nhanh cho n khi t c
90% cng vic v ri s mi dng li con s 90%
3. Li th ca cc mc tiu khng r rng l gip cho

bn khi cm thy bi ri khi phi c tnh nhng
chi ph tng ng.
4. Khi mi vic din ra tt p th chc chn c mt ci
g ang trc trc. Khi mi vic tng nh l
ti t nht, th n cn c th ti t hn na. Khi mi
vic c v c chiu hng tt ln, th c th bn
2010-PTVinh,
Qun l d n
b quaHBK/KTQL
mt ci g .
1 - 46
Cc quy lut qun l d n (2)

5. Nu ni dung ca d n c cho php thay i t
do, th tc thay i s vt qu tc tin
trin ca d n
6. Khng c h thng no hon ton khng c li.
Vic c gng g li cho mt h thng chc chn s
a vo nhng li mi kh tm thy hn.
7. D n c lp k hoch khng cn thn s ko di
thi gian hon thnh gp 3 ln so vi d kin. D n
c lp k hoch cn thn s ch ko di thi gian
gp 2 ln thi.
8. Nhng ngi lm d n ght cay ght ng vic bo
co tin bi iu s lm l ra vic d n ca
h thiu s tin trin.
Qun l d n
1 - 47
Cu hi tho lun
Phn bit mt d n v
mt phng chc nng
Qun l d n
1 - 48
QUN L D N
Phn 2 Phn tch nh gi v la chn d n
Qun l d n
1 - 49
Phn tch, nh gi v la chn d n

1. Ni dung phn tch v lp d n (Nghin cu kh
thi d n ) Lp bo co u t
2. Phn tch ti chnh d n
a) Phn tch nh hng ca khu hao v li vay
b) nh gi hiu qu ca d n
c) Xc nh dng tin d n
d) Phn tch nh hng ca lm pht
3. Cc phng php nh gi v la chn d n
Qun l d n
1 - 50
Phn 1: Phn tch v lp d n
Nghin cu kh thi d n (phn tch v lp d n)

Nghin cu kh thi - FS l qu trnh iu tra nghin cu
mt u t (mt vn ) v pht trin gii php mc
chi tit va xc nh rng n kh thi v mt k thut
v c th thc hin c v phng din kinh t cng nh
xng ng pht trin.
Nghin cu kh thi l mt s minh chng vi mt bo co
th hin tt c nhng kh nng ca d n
Qun l d n
1 - 51
Ni dung nghin cu kh thi
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Nghin cu tnh hnh k.t tng qut

Nghin cu th trng
Nghin cu k thut
Nghin cu ti chnh
Nghin cu t chc qun l
Nghin cu kinh t x hi
Qun l d n
1 - 52
1. Nghin cu tnh hnh kinh t tng qut
a. c im chung
iu kin a l, t nhin, a hnh, kh hu...
Dn s v lao ng: D tnh cu v khuynh hng
tiu th sn phm.
Chnh tr: Chnh sch kinh t v qun l ca gii
cm quyn
Qun l d n
1 - 53
1. Nghin cu tnh hnh kinh t tng qut
b. c im kinh t x hi
Tng sn phm x hi: u t, tiu th v tch lu:
GNP, GDP, I/GDP...
Tnh hnh ngoi hi: Cn cn thanh ton ngoi hi,
d tr ngoi t, n nc ngoi.
c. H thng kinh t v cc chnh sch
C cu t chc h thng kinh t
Chnh sch pht trin, ci t c cu,..
K hoch kinh t quc dn
Tnh hnh ngoi thng
Qun l d n
1 - 54
2. Nghin cu th trng
Mc ch: Lm r 3 vn
Nhu cu hng ho ca d n
Tnh hnh cung ca hng ha ca d n
To ra ch ng ca sn phm trn th trng bng
cnh tranh v khuyn th ra sao
Ni dung:
Nhu cu hng ho, dch v
H thng phn phi
Gi c
Xc tin bn hng
Cnh tranh
Qun l d n
1 - 55
3.Nghin cu k thut d n
Xc nh k thut v quy trnh sn xut, a im

sx v nhu cu sx mt cch ti u v ph hp
nht vi nhng iu kin hin c trong nc m
vn m bo c cc yu cu v cht lng v s
lng sn phm qua nghin cu th trng
Qun l d n
1 - 56
3. Nghin cu k thut d n
c tnh sn phm v Kim tra cht lng.
Phng php v k thut sn xut.
Thit b, my mc.
Cng sut ca d n.
c tnh v nhu cu nguyn vt liu.
Lao ng
C s h tng, t ai v a im ca nh my,
xy dng
X l cht thi nhim mi trng
Qun l d n
1 - 57
3.1. c tnh v cht lng sn phm

Xc nh c tnh k thut, cc tiu chun cn phi
t c. So snh vi cc sp, tiu chun trong v
ngoi nc.
Xc nh phng php v phng tin kim tra
cht lng sp. D tr kinh ph cho b phn kim
tra cht lng sp
Qun l d n
1 - 58
3.2. K thut v pp sn xut

a. Nghin cu k thut v phng php sx:
+ Bn cht ca k thut sn xut.

+ Tay ngh ca ngi lao ng, kh nng tip thu k
thut.
+ Yu cu NVL, nng lng s dng.
+ Kh nng chuyn sang sx cc mt hng khc.
+ Nh cung cp, cch cung cp v quyn SHCN.
+ Yu cu v vn v ngoi t
b. La chn k thut v pp sn xut:

Qun l d n
1 - 59
3.3. My mc v thit b
My mc c la chn theo cc tiu chun:
Ph hp vi quy trnh cng ngh
Cht lng tt.
Gi c phi chng, hp vi vn u t.
Tui th v cng sut ph hp.
Ph tng thay th (10-20% chi ph TB), chi ph sa
cha.
Qun l d n
1 - 60
3.4. Cng sut ca d n
Khi nim: L s sn phm sx c trong mt n

v thi gian.
Vic xc nh cng sut da vo:
Nhu cu tiu th sn phm
K thut sn xut v my mc thit b
Kh nng cung ng nguyn vt liu
Chi ph u t v sn xut
o Phn bit cc loi cng sut: thc t, danh ngha,..
Qun l d n
1 - 61
3.5. Nguyn vt liu

Bao gm cc nguyn vt liu chnh, ph, vt liu bao
b ng gi. c nghin cu:
Loi NVL c s dng trong d n.
c tnh v cht lng.
Ngun v nhu cu cung cp.
Gi mua
K hoch cung ng v chuyn ch
Qun l d n
1 - 62
3.6. C s h tng
Nng lng.
Nc.
H thng giao thng, thng tin lin lc.
H thng x l cht thi, kh thi bo v mi
trng.
H thng an ton lao ng, phng chy cha chy.
> nh hng n vn u t v chi ph sn xut ca
d n
Qun l d n
1 - 63
3.7. Lao ng, tr gip k thut n.ngoi

Lao ng:
Nhu cu v ngun lao ng.
Lng, ch lao ng, tin lng p.
iu kin sng, BHXH.
Trnh , tay ngh ca ngi lao ng.
S tr gip ca chuyn gia nc ngoi khi tip

nhn k thut, thit k, thi cng lp t, chy th
my, o to CN
Qun l d n
1 - 64
3.8. a im thc hin d n
Cn c vo 4 yu t sau:
Chnh sch nh nc.
Vn cung cp nguyn vt liu v tiu th sn
phm.
C s h tng.
Mi trng t nhin, kinh t x hi.
Qun l d n
1 - 65
3.9. t ai v xy dng nh xng

Xy dng cc cng trnh nhm to iu kin v
m bo cho dy chuyn thit b sn xut, cng
nhn hot ng c hiu qu v an ton
3.10. X l cht thi gy nhim mi trng
Nghin cu ngun gc cht thi.
Kh nng thu hi, iu ho lu lng
PP x l thch hp
Chi ph thc hin x l cht thi
Qun l d n
1 - 66
4. Nghin cu v tnh hnh ti chnh

Thng qua phn tch ti chnh, ta xc nh quy m
u t, c cu cc loi vn, ngun ti tr cho d n;
tnh ton thu chi l li, nhng li ch mang li cho
ch u t.
Phn tch ti chnh l qu trnh nghin cu nh gi
d n trn gc li ch ca ch u t cho d n
Qun l d n
1 - 67
4. Nghin cu v tnh hnh ti chnh
1. Xc nh tng vn u t,c cu vn u t,
ngun ti tr v chi ph vn.
2. Xc nh cc khon thu, chi, li nhun
3. Xc nh cc ch tiu hiu qu u t
4. Phn tch kh nng huy ng vn v thanh ton
ca d n
5. Phn tch nhy ca d n
Qun l d n
1 - 68
Phn tch ti chnh

Xc nh tng vn u t,c cu vn u t, ngun
ti tr v chi ph vn.
Tng mc u t ca d n:
-
Vn c nh
Vn lu ng
D phng vn u t
Li trong thi gian xy dng
Thu VAT
Qun l d n
1 - 69
Phn tch ti chnh

ti tr v chi ph vn.
Ngun ti tr, chi ph ngun vn d n WACC:
-
Ngun vn ch s hu. Chi ph vn ch s

hu l chi ph c hi.
Ngun vn vay. Chi ph l li vay
Ch trc v sau thu
Qun l d n
1 - 70
5. Nghin cu t chc v qun l

Quy ch php l ca nh u t
C cu t chc d n
Kh nng ca ban gim c d n
Qun l d n
1 - 71
6. Nghin cu (phn tch) kinh t x hi

Khi nim: Phn tch Kinh t d n l vic xem xt
nh gi chi ph v li ch m d n mang li cho
ton b nn kinh t ( hay chnh l vic nh gi
hiu qu ca d n trn quan im ton b nn kinh
t ).
Ging nh phn tch ti chnh, phn tch kinh t
cng l vic so snh li ch v chi ph ca d n,
nhng trn c s ng gp cho cc mc tiu pht
trin ca nn kinh t
Qun l d n
1 - 72
Phn tch kinh t x hi

Mc ch: Nhm thuyt phc cc cp chnh quyn,
cc t chc ti tr quyt nh ti tr hay cho php
thc hin d n
Mc tiu ca phn tch kinh t x hi l xc nh
v tr c th ca d n trong tng th KH pht trin
nn kinh t quc dn
Trong tng giai on, cc mc tiu c th thay
i, do vy cc tiu chun nh gi kinh t x hi
cng thay i
Qun l d n
1 - 73
Phm vi p dng:
Phn tch kinh t thng c s dng nh gi
v la chn cc d n sau:
Cc d n mang mc ch cng ch
Cc d n c lin quan n s ti tr ca nh
nc, hay ca cc t chc vin tr pht trin
ca quc t.
V vy nh nc cng nh cc c quan c thm
quyn cng s dng phn tch kinh t thm
nh cc d n u t.
Qun l d n
1 - 74
Ni dung phn tch KT-XH

Ni dung nghin cu (phn tch) kinh t x hi thng
cp n cc ND sau:
K hoch v chin lc pht trin nn KT.
Tng sn phm x hi.
Ngoi thng.
Vic s dng cc yu t sn xut
Ci thin c cu kinh t.
Pht trin a phng, x hi
Qun l d n
1 - 75
Cc ch tiu nh gi s ng gp ca d n vi
s pht trin nn KT
Gi tr sn phm gia tng (trc tip v gin tip).
Hiu qu kinh t vn u t.
Mc s dng nhn cng trong nc
ng gp cho ngn sch nh nc.
Tit kim ngoi t v tng thu ngoi t.
nh hng ca d n i vi mi trng sinh thi.
Qun l d n
1 - 76
Phn 2
Ni dung phn tch ti chnh
Qun l d n
1 - 77
Phn tch ti chnh

Thng qua phn tch ti chnh, ta xc nh quy m
u t, c cu cc loi vn, ngun ti tr cho d n;
tnh ton thu chi l li, nhng li ch mang li cho
ch u t.
Phn tch ti chnh l qu trnh nghin cu nh gi
d n trn gc li ch ca ch u t cho d n
Qun l d n
1 - 78
Phn tch ti chnh

2. Xc nh cc khon thu, chi, li nhun
3. Xc nh cc ch tiu hiu qu u t
4. Phn tch kh nng huy ng vn v thanh ton
ca d n
5. Phn tch nhy ca d n
Qun l d n
1 - 79
Phn tch ti chnh

Tng mc u t ca d n:
-
Vn c nh: Thit b v xy lp
Vn lu ng: Chi ph khc,
D phng vn u t: Trt gi, cv cha tnh
Li trong thi gian xy dng
Thu VAT
Qun l d n
1 - 80
Phn tch ti chnh

ti tr v chi ph vn.
Ngun ti tr, chi ph ngun vn :
-
Ngun vn ch s hu. Chi ph vn ch s

hu l chi ph c hi.
Ngun vn vay. Chi ph l li vay
Chi ph vn trung bnh ca d n WACC

(Weighted Average Cost Of Capital)
Ch trc v sau thu

Qun l d n
1 - 81
Phn tch ti chnh

1.
Xc nh cc khon thu, chi, li nhun
Thu nhp ca d n:
a.
Doanh thu: s tin thu c t bn hng ha, dch v
b.
Thu nhp khc: Thanh l TSCD, thu hi VLD (vn lu ng),

pht hp ng, thng,..
2. Chi ph:
a.
Chi ph u t
b.
Chi ph vn hnh: ko k chi ph khu hao v tr li
c.
Chi ph khu hao
d.
Chi ph tr li
Qun l d n
Cc cch c lng chi ph
1 - 82
Tip cn v m (trn xung) Top down

Dng ph bin giai on khi nim, hoc cho d n lin quan n
ri ro cao, hay cc d n nh, d n bn trong
Cho php da trn s c lng cc tham s ca d n (mt vung,
nng lc, im hot ng, etc.)
Cho php tnh ton da trn d liu ca cc d n tng t, s dng
hi quy, ng cong, hay cc phng php nh lng khc
Tip cn vi m (di - ln) Bottom up
p dng sau khi phm vi d n c xc nh, v WBS c
xy dng chi tit
c tnh chi ph da theo gi cng vic thp nht trong WBS, s
dng s c lng cc ngun lc yu cu sn xut ra u vo d
kin v d liu (c tnh) chi ph n v t l cc ngun lc
Thng c phn tch thnh chi ph trc tip, chi ph gin tip
Qun l d n
1 - 83
c tnh chi ph
c tnh chi ph l qu trnh pht trin mt cch hp l cc
ngun lc yu cu, th hin bng n v tin t, cho n khi
hon thnh d n.
Ti sao phi c tnh chi ph?
Nhm m bo dng ngn sch v ngun lc y
a ra thng s u vo cho phn tch chi ph/ li ch v
phn tch dng tin
Phc v cho cng c qun l trong qun l v kim sot ri ro
Sau khi xc nh phm vi, c tnh chi ph thng s dng qu
trnh t di ln, bt u vi WBS v ngun lc yu cu cho
mi gi cng vic v chi ph ngun lc.
Kt qu ca ngn sch d n vi vic h tr v gii thch chi
tit, cng vi mt k hoch qun l chi ph
Qun l d n
1 - 84
Lp ngn sch d n
c tnh chi ph c s:
c tnh chi ph theo WBS t di ln: l tng chi ph c
tnh cho cc gi cng vic v chi ph tch hp
i vi mi gi cng vic, c tnh c s thch hp nht
nu tt c gi nh u thch hp.
D phng, bt thng: d kin chi ph bin i c kh nng xy
ra nhng khng th xc nh r rng theo l thuyt khi c tnh
chi ph
Ngn sch d n = d ton c s + d phng
D tr: khon vn thm vo dnh cho qun l
Dnh cho vic xy ra mt s kin bt li khng mong i,
Hon thin khi hon thnh d n
Qun l d n
1 - 85
K hoch ti chnh
Xc sut hon thnh
100%
Xc sut
hon thnh
80-90%
50-80%
0 2010-PTVinh, HBK/KTQL
Ngn sch
c tnh c bn
Ngu nhin
Qun l
d tr
Chi ph
Qun l d n
1 - 86
Phn 3.
Cc phng php khu hao v tr n
Qun l d n
1 - 87
Cc phng php khu hao

Khi nim c bn v khu hao:
Nguyn gi P
Gi tr cn li SV
Gi tr cn tnh khu hao = P - SV
Khu hao nm D
Gi tr cn li theo s sch Bx
Khu hao ly k
Qun l d n
1 - 88
Khi nim c bn v khu hao

Trong phn tch ti chnh, KH l s khu tr vo doanh thu
hng nm nhm 2 mc ch:
* phn nh mc s dng TSC vo qu trnh SX trong
nm nhm tp hp chi ph tnh ton gi vn lm c s
cho vic xc nh li nhun k ton ca doanh nghip. Vi
mc ch ny khu hao l mt khon chi ph ca doanh
nghip nhng y l mt khon chi phi tin v c tnh quy
c
* thu hi li tng phn vn u t ban u vo cc
TSC, vi mc ch ny khu hao l mt khon thu ca
doanh nghip.
Qun l d n
1 - 89
Cc phng php khu hao
Phng php khu hao u (tuyn tnh,

ng thng)
Phng php khu hao theo tng s nm hot
ng
Phng php khu hao theo kt s (gi tr
cn li)
Phng php khu hao gia tc
Phng php khu hao theo mc s dng
Qun l d n
1 - 90
Khu hao tuyn tnh KH u

Tin khu hao hng nm l khng i
Cng thc tnh
Dx = (P-SV)/N = const
Tx = Dx
Bx = P - Tx = P - (P-SV)*x / N
K hiu:
P: Nguyn gi tr TSC d n
SV: Gi tr thu hi khi thanh l
N: Thi hn khu hao
Dx: chi ph khu hao nm x
Bx: Gi tr TSC cn li cui nm (Bn= SV)
Tx: Tng gi tr khu hao n nm t (khu hao lu k) (Tn=
P-SV)
Qun l d n
1 - 91
Khu hao tuyn tnh KH u

u im: n gin, d thc hin
Nhc im: Chm thu hi vn u
t, vn thu nhp chu thu
p dng: Nc ta hin nay ang p
dng phng php khu hao tuyn
tnh.
Qun l d n
1 - 92
Khu hao theo tng s th t cc nm (SYD)

Tin khu hao nhiu cc nm u v gim dn cc
nm sau
Tng s th t cc nm
Z = 1 + 2 ++ N = N(N+1)/2
N (t 1)
2 * ( N x 1)
( P SV )
( P SV )
Tin khu hao nm x Dx
Z
N * ( N 1)
( N ( N 1) ... ( N t 1))
Tx
( P SV )
Z
(2 N x 1) x
Tx
( P SV )
N ( N 1)
(2 N x 1) x
Bx P
( P SV )
N ( N 1)
N ( x 1)
Bx Bx 1
(P S )
Z
Qun l d n
1 - 93
Khu hao theo tng s th t cc nm

(SYD)
u im: Chng thu hi vn, trnh
c hao mn (hao mn v hnh)
Qun l d n
1 - 94
Mt TSC c nguyn gi l 15.000$, gi tr cn li l 0$.

Thi gian s dng d kin l 5 nm. Hy tnh chi ph khu hao
nm, khu hao lu k v gi tr cn li theo phng php khu
hao u.
Nm
Khu hao nm
KH lu k
G.tr cn li
3000
3000
12000
3000
6000
9000
3000
9000
6000
3000
12000
3000
3000
15000
Qun l d n
1 - 95
Hy tnh chi ph khu hao nm, khu hao lu k v gi tr

cn li theo phng php khu hao theo tng s nm
hot ng
Nm S nm HD
cn li/KH
1
5a
Khu hao
KH lu k
5000
5000
Gi tr cn
li
10000
4a
4000
9000
6000
3a
3000
12000
3000
2a
2000
14000
1000
1a
1000
15000
Qun l d n
1 - 96
Hy tnh chi ph khu hao nm, khu hao lu k v gi tr cn

li theo phng php s d gim dn c iu chnh.ACRS
Nm
Khu hao
KH lu k
Gi tr cn li
6000
9000
6000=
0.4x15000
3600
9600
5400
2160
11760
3240
1620
13380
1620
1620
15000
Qun l d n
1 - 97
Khu hao theo kt s cn li ca ti sn DB

Chi ph khu hao cc nm ln v sau nh dn, c xc
nh bng tch s gia gi tr cn li cha khu hao
cui mi nm vi mt h s khng i dx. Phng php
khu hao ny l phng php kt s gim nhanh
Chi ph khu hao nm x
Dx = Bx-1. dx
D1 = B0. dx; D2 = B1. dx; . Dn = Bn-1. dx;
B1 = B0 - D1 = P - P. dx = P (1 - dx)
B2 = B1 - D2 = B1 - B1. dx = P (1 - dx)2
.
Bx-1 = P (1 - dx)x-1
Dx = P. (1 - dx)x-1
Bx = Bx-1 - Dx = P (1 - dx)x
B0 = P
Qun l d n
1 - 98
Khu hao theo kt s cn li ca ti sn

Ti cui nm N ta c:
Bn = P (1 - dx)N = SV
H s dx c xc nh
SV
dx 1
P
N
Vi phng php khu hao ny, nh u t thu vn

nhanh hn ngay t u
Qun l d n
1 - 99
Khu hao
Vic s dng phng php khu hao
no do B ti chnh Quy nh
Ch u t mong mun: Khu hao
nhanh, chng hon vn, gim thu
thu nhp
Chn phng php khu hao no c
gi tr hin ti dng tin trch KH ln
nht
Qun l d n
1 - 100
V d
Mt TSC c nguyn gi l 9.000$, gi tr cn li l 1.000$.
Thi gian s dng d kin l 2 nm. Hy tnh chi ph khu
hao v gi tr cn li cc nm theo phng php khu hao
theo kt s
Mt thit b in, chi ph u t ban u: 16.000 USD, gi tr
thu hi d kin: 2.000 USD, tui th: 7 nm. Tnh chi ph
khu hao v gi tr cn li qua cc nm vi 4 phng php.
Mt TSC c nguyn gi l 25000$,c chi ph khu hao l
mt hm tuyn tnh ca s sp sx. Sau khi sx c 100.000sp,
gi tr cn li ca TSC l 5000$. n ht nm th 3 TSC
ny sx c 60.000sp, trong nm th t sx c 10.000sp.
Hy tnh chi ph Khu hao nm th t, v gi tr cn li ca
TSC HBK/KTQL
cui nm
2010-PTVinh,
Qun l d n
1 - 101
V d
Mt TSC c nguyn gi l 25000$,c chi ph khu hao l
mt hm tuyn tnh ca s sp sx. Sau khi sx c 100.000sp,
gi tr cn li ca TSC l 5000$. n ht nm th 3 TSC
ny sx c 60.000sp, trong nm th t sx c 10.000sp.
Hy tnh chi ph Khu hao nm th t, v gi tr cn li ca
TSC cui nm .
Gii:
Qun l d n
1 - 102
Cc phng thc tr vn gc & tr li

Tr vn gc u hng nm, tr li hng nm tnh theo
vn vay cn li
Tr vn gc cui thi hn vay, tr li u hng nm
Tr vn gc v li vo cui thi hn vay
Tr vn gc v li u hng nm. Libor / sibor
Tr li vo u k hn vay, gc vo cui k hn vay
VD: Mt doanh nghip vay vn u t. Vn vay: 10.000
triu ng. Li sut vay: 10%/nm. Thi hn vay: 5
nm. Lp bng tr vn gc, tr li vay theo 5 phng
thc. Nhn xt cc phng thc trn quan im ngi
vay v cho vay. Hnh thc no c li nht?
Qun l d n
1 - 103
Li sut
Li vay l chi ph s dng vn ca vn vay
Li kp: L cch tnh li m li ca k ny c tnh
vo vn gc tnh li cho k tip theo.
Li n: Thng nhng khon vay c thi hn tnh li
t mt nm tr xung.
Li sut danh ngha: Tnh theo tin t
Li sut thc t: Tnh theo sc mua
Li vay trc thu
Li vay sau thu
Qun l d n
1 - 104
Cc phng thc tr vn gc & tr li
Gc
Li
Gc
Gc
Li
Li tr u
Gc tr u
Tr n u
Qun l d n
1 - 105
PHN 4 CC TIU CHUN

NH GI HIU QU D N
Qun l d n
1 - 106
nh gi hiu qu d n
Cc phng php la chn nh lng
Cc phng php gi tr tng ng
Sut thu li ni ti
Phn tch li ch - chi ph
Phn tch ho vn
nh gi phn tch kinh t k thut.
Cc phng php la chn khc:
Phng php lit k.
Phng php cho im
Phn tch chi ph
Qun l d n
1 - 107
Cc phng php nh gi hiu qu

d n u t
Hai nhm phng php:
1. Cc phng php tnh: khng tnh n gi tr ca tin t
theo thi gian.
2. Cc phng php ng: tnh n gi tr ca tin t theo
thi gian:
Gi tr hin ti thun
T s li ch/chi ph
H s hon vn ni ti
Thi gian hon vn
Qun l d n
1 - 108
Yu cu khi so snh cc d n
1. Cng mc tiu u t
2. Cng mi trng u t
3. Cng thi gian u t. - Phng php gia s thi gian
u t
4. Cng vn u t. -Phng php gia s vn u t
Qun l d n
1 - 109
1. Gi tr hin ti thun - NPV
NPV?
Chnh lch gia thu nhp

v chi ph ca d n quy v thi
im hin ti vi t sut chit
khu thch hp
Qun l d n
1 - 110
NPV (tip)
n
n
t
t
NPV At (1 i) ( Bt Ct )(1 i)
t 0
t 0
Trong :
At dng tin mt nm t
Bt dng thu nm t
Ct dng chi nm t
i: t sut chit khu
Thng thng
C0 Chi ph u t
C1,2n Chi ph khai thc
A ( B C )
t 0
t 0
Qun l d n
1 - 111
NPV (tip)
La chn phng n u t theo tiu chun NPV
Phng n c lp
NPV >= 0 Chp nhn
NPV < 0 Loi b
Phng n loi tr
NPV = Max v >=0
Ti u
Ch : Cng c th s dng gi tr tng lai thun NFV,
gi tr u hng nm, gi tr hin ti doanh thu, gi tr
hin ti chi ph nh gi d n. Cc phng php
u cho kt qu tng t
Qun l d n
1 - 112
Cc phng php gi tr tng ng
Gi tr hin ti thun (rng) - NPV

Gi tr u hng nm - AV
Gi tr tng lai - FV
Gi tr hin ti rng thun (NPV)
n
NPVng
CF
k)
Gi tr tng
hng
nm i,AV
k * (P/F,
k0
AV NPV * (A/P, i, n)
Qun l d n
1 - 113
Gi tr hin ti thun - NPV

Nhn xt
Tiu chun cho bit gi tr tuyt i ca li qui i
v hin ti
Tiu chun NPV l hiu s ca PVB v PVC;
NPV = PVB - PVC
Tiu chun NPV c s dng rng ri trong phn
tch v nh gi d n u t
Tiu chun NPV ph thuc vo h s chit khu i
tnh n c thu, chi trong sut i d n
L ch tiu c CSH quan tm nht
Qun l d n
1 - 114
T sut chit khu

Sut thu li ti thiu chp nhn c (MARR)
Sut thu li ti thiu chp nhn c (MARR) l mc li sut ti thiu
(thp nht) ca d n hay ca vn ch s hu m nh u t chp nhn
c.
T l chit khu c s dng xc nh gi tri hin ti ca dng tin k
vng phi tng xng vi mc ri ro ca d n u t
L chi ph c hi ca vn u t (gc ti chnh)
Khi quyt nh, c th a ra MARR trc v sau thu, cn cn c vo
dng sau thu ca CSH.
Cn xc nh chnh xc MARR trc khi tnh ton cc ch tiu hiu qu d
n
Cn c xc nh MARR
Qun l d n
1 - 115
2. H s hon vn ni ti - IRR
IRR?
L mc li m d n to ra
trn vn u t trong thi
gian hot ng
Qun l d n
1 - 116
IRR (tip)
Cng thc
NPV ( B C )(1 IRR) 0

n
t 0
Hay chnh l gi tr chit khu NPV = 0

IRR biu din t l thu hi ca mi d n
Nu d n ch c t l hon vn (IRR) l bng i, th cc
khon thu nhp t d n ch hon tr phn vn gc
u t ban u vo d n v tr li.
Mt khc, sut thu li ni ti IRR cn phn nh chi ph s

dng vn ti a m nh u t c th chp nhn c.
Qun l d n
1 - 117
IRR (tip)
Cng thc tnh gn ng
NPV
IRR i (i i )
NPV NPV
1
i1: L h s chit khu ng vi NPV1 > 0

i2: L h s chit khu ng vi NPV2 < 0
NPV1
IRR
i1
i2
i
NPV2
Qun l d n
1 - 118
Sut thu li ni ti IRR
-Gi s:
NPV (I)
= a >0
NPV (I+5%)
= -b <0
Th
5a
IRR
i
ab
Qun l d n
1 - 119

nh gi phng n
- D n c lp
IRR >MARR chp nhn phng n, phng n
ng gi
IRR < MARR phng n s b bc b
IRR = MARR chp nhn phng n
- So snh cc phng n loi tr nhau
Nu chn phng n vi IRRmax th s c th c
li gii khc vi phng php NPV.
Qun l d n
1 - 120

Nguyn tc so snh
Phng n u t ln hn ch so snh vi phng n c u
t b hn khi phng n c u t b hn l ng gi theo
IRR (IRR MARR)
Phng n c u t ln hn c chn khi sut thu li ca
gia s vn u t ln hn sut thu li ti thiu chp nhn
c v ngc li phng n u t b hn c chn khi
sut thu li ni ti ca gia s vn u t nh hn MARR.
Qun l d n
1 - 121

So snh cc d n loi tr nhau
1. Sp xp cc d n theo th t tng dn v vn u t.
2. Chn phng n khng u t l p.n c th.

3. So snh phng n u tin vi p.n c th nu IRR (AI)
MARR Th p.n so snh vi phng n c th c chn l
phng n c th
Nu IRR (AI ) < MARR gi nguyn phng n c th
4. Lp li bc 3 n phng n cui cng. Phng n c th
cui cng l PA tt nht.
Qun l d n
1 - 122

u im:
Cho bit hiu sut s dng vn u t ca d n. Hay t l li
trn vn u t
Khng gp kh khn khi xc nh t sut chit khu
Thun li khi so snh cc d n c thi gian thc hin, vn u
t khc nhau
Nhc im:
Kh khn trong vic tnh ton
Khng ph thuc vo chi ph vn => nhn nh sai v kh nng
sinh li ca d n
Gp kh khn trong cc trng hp u t khng thng thng
Qun l d n
1 - 123
Sut thu li ni ti IRR)

u t khng thng thng l u
t m dng tin thay i nhiu ln,
khi c th gp vn a gi tr,
tc l c nhiu gi tr IRR lm cho
NPV < 0),khi s gp kh khn khi
s dng ch tiu IRR nh gi
hiu qu ca d n.
Qun l d n
1 - 124
3.2 T s li ch v chi ph B/C
B/C?
L t s gia tng gi tr
hin ti ca thu nhp v
tng gi tr hin ti ca chi
ph d n
Qun l d n
1 - 125
B/C (tip)
Cng thc
B PVB B (1 i )
C PVC C (1 i )
n
t 0
n
t 0
Qun l d n
1 - 126
B/C (tip)
nh gi phng n theo tiu chun B/C
Cc phng n c lp:
B/C >= 1
B/C < 1
Chp nhn
Loi b
Cc phng n loi tr nhau:

nh gi nh ch tiu IRR
Tiu chun B/C mang tnh tng i
B/C c p dng rng ri trong vic phn tch v
nh gi cc d n c qui m khc nhau.
Qun l d n
1 - 127
T sut li ch / chi ph (B/C)

Thng
Total Benefit
P [B]
B/C =
=
or
Total Cost
P [I + (O + M )]
B
B/C =
I + (O + M )
B
I
O
M
Thu nhp hin ti hng nm

Vn u t
Chi ph vn hnh
Chi ph bo dng
Qun l d n
1 - 128
T sut li ch / chi ph (B/C)

Thng
Total Benefit
P [B]
B/C =
=
or
Total Cost
P [CR + (O + M)
B
B/C =
CR + (O + M)
B Thu nhp hin ti hng nm

CR Vn u t
O Chi ph vn hnh
M Chi ph bo dng
Qun l d n
1 - 129
3.4 Thi gian hon vn - Tp
Tp?
L thi gian cn thit thu

hi vn u t ban u cho
d n
Qun l d n
1 - 130
Phng php thi gian hon vn

Bao gm 2 loi l thi gian hon vn gin n v
thi gian hon vn c chit khu.
Thi gian hon vn Tp l khong thi gian k
vng thu hi vn u t ca d n, bng cc
khon tch lu vn hng nm.
Hay khong thi gian cn thit thu hi ton b

vn u t ban u ca d n.
Qun l d n
1 - 131
Thn (tip)
Cng thc
Tp
t
CF
(
B
C
)(
1
i
)
0
t t
t 0
nh gi phng n theo tiu chun Thn

Chp nhn
Tp > Tp *
Loi b
Tp = Tp *
Xem xt
Tp = Min Ti u
Tp * l thi gian hon vn qui nh hoc mong
mun
Tp < Tp *
Qun l d n
1 - 132
Tp (tip)
Cng thc tnh gn ng
TP t1 (t 2
CF
t )
CF CF
2
t1: L thi Im ng vi CF < 0

t2: L thi Im ng vi CF > 0
1
NPV2
t1
NPV1
Thv t2
Qun l d n
1 - 133
TP (tip)
Tiu chun TP cho nh u t bit d n ny s hon
vn trong bao nhiu nm.
Tiu chun TP khng xt dng tin sau khi hon vn.
Khng nh gi ng mc sinh li ca d n C
trng hp d n A th c thi gian hon vn sm hn
d n B, nhng NPV d n B li ln hn NPV d n A
Tiu chun TP o lng mc ri ro, c p dng
rng ri trong phn tch v nh gi d n mang tnh ri
ro cao
Qun l d n
1 - 134

Nm 0 Nm1
Nm2
Nm3
CFt
-100
30
30
600
CF tch ly
-100
-70
-40
+560
CFt
-100
50
50
60
CF tch ly
-100
-50
+60
Thi gian han vn gin n ca d n
40
Tp 2
(3 2) 2.67nam
20 40
Qun l d n
1 - 135

Nm 0 Nm1
Nm2
Nm3
CFt
-100
30
30
60
CF chit
khu
CF ck cng
dn
-100
28,6
27,2
51,8
-100
-71,4
-44.2
7.6
Thi gian han vn chit khu ca d n
44.2
Tp 2
(3 2) 2.85nam
51.8
Qun l d n
1 - 136
Mi quan h gia cc phng n

Mt d n ng gi theo ch tiu NPV th c nh gi
theo cc ch tiu khc hay khng v ngc li?
Cc ch tiu NPV, IRR v B/C l tng ng
Mt phng n ng gi theo Tp th ng gi theo
NPV, IRR v B/C nhng khng c iu ngc li
Qun l d n
1 - 137
Phn 5 Phn tch ti chnh d n

1. Xc nh dng tin d n, ch s hu
2. Phn tch nh hng ca khu hao
3. Phn tch nh hng ca li vay
4. Phn tch nh hng ca lm pht
Qun l d n
1 - 138
Dng tin d n
Dng tin trc thu - CFBT

CFBT : (Cash flow before tax)
CFBT = Doanh thu, thu nhp (bng tin) - Chi
ph vn hnh - chi ph u t
CFBTx = Rx - Cvhx - Ix
x = 0 CFBTo = Io
x 0 thng thng CFBTx = Rx Cvhx
Ch khi c thanh l TSC v thu hi VL
Chi ph vn hnh: cc chi ph ca d n khng k
chi ph khu hao v li vay
Qun l d n
1 - 139
Dng tin d n
Dng tin sau thu - CFAT
CFAT = CFBT - thu thu nhp (TI) (1)
TI =Thu nhp chu thu *Thu sut thu thu nhp(t)
(Li nhun trc thu)
TN chu thu =Doanh thu - Chi ph hp l hp l

(CP vn hnh + CP khu hao)
Thu nhp chu thu = CFBTx - Dx

Thu thu nhp = (CFBTx - Dx) . t
Qun l d n
1 - 140
Dng tin d n
CFATx = CFBTx - (CFBTx - Dx ) . t
CFATx = CFBTx (1-t) + Dx . t
(2)
Dx . t : phn gim thu do khu hao
LN sau thu = (CFBTx - Dx ) - (CFBTx - Dx ) . t

= CFBTx (1 - t) + Dx. t - Dx
Li sau thu = CFATx - Dx
CFATx = LN sau thu + Dx
(3)
Ch :dng tin sau thu khng phi l li sau thu
Qun l d n
1 - 141
V d p dng
Mt d n u t, u t 500 tr mua mt thit b d
kin thc hin trong 5 nm, gi tr cn li cui nm T5
l 0. Thu sut thu TN l 30%.TSC c khu hao
u trong 5 nm . Xc nh CFAT ca d n.D kin
doanh thu hng nm v chi ph vn hnh hng nm nh
sau :
Nam
Rx
CVHx
1
270
100
2
260
105
3
250
110
4
240
115
5
230
120
Qun l d n
1 - 142
Gii
Khon mc
Chi ph u t ban u
Doanh thu
270
260
250
240
230
Chi ph vn hnh
100
105
110
115
120
CFBT (2-3-1)
170
155
140
125
110
Khu hao
100
100
100
100
100
Thu nhp chu thu (2-3-5)
70
55
40
25
10
Thu thu nhp (6xt)
21
16.5
12
7.5
Li sau thu (6-7)
49
38.5
28
17.5
CFAT (4-7) = (8+5)
149
138.5
128
117.5
107
500
-500
-500
Qun l d n
1 - 143
Dng tin ch s hu
Dng tin sau thu ca CSH CFATcsh

CFATcsh = CFBT - tr vn gc - tr li vay - thu thu
nhp
(1)
Thu thu nhp = Thu nhp chu thu x thu sut
TNCT = CFBT - D - Tr li vay
Thu thu nhp = (CFBT - D tr li) . t
= (CFBT - D) . t tr li . t
Tr li . t = Phn gim thu do li vay
CFATcsh = LN sau thu Tr gc + Khu hao (2)
Qun l d n
1 - 144
Dng tin n
Dng tin vay n trc thu CFBTn
CFBTn = Tr gc + Tr li vay
Dng tin vay n sau thu - CFATn
CFATn = CFBTn + Phn gim thu do tr li
CFATcsh = CFATda + CFATn
Qun l d n
1 - 145
V d p dng
Mt d n u t, u t 500 tr mua mt thit b d kin
thc hin trong 5 nm, gi tr cn li cui nm T5 l 0. Thu
sut thu TN l 30%.TSC c khu hao u trong 5 nm .
Xc nh CFAT ca d n, ch s hu, n. Bit rng d n
phi huy ng 200 tr vn vay , r = 10% /nm, tr u vn gc
trong 5 nm. D kin doanh thu hng nm v chi ph vn hnh
hng nm nh sau :
Nam
Rt
270
260
250
240
230
CVHt
100
105
110
115
120
Qun l d n
1 - 146
Gii
0
-500
170
155
140
125
110
100
100
100
100
100
40
40
40
40
40
20
16
12
-60
-56
-52
-48
-44
CFBT
Khu hao
Tr vn gc
Tr li vay
Tng tr n (CFBT n)
T.Nhp chu thu = 1-2-4
50
39
28
17
Thu thu nhp (6xt)
15
11.7
8.4
5.1
1.8
Li sau thu (6-7)
35
27.3
19.6
11.9
4.2
CFATCSH = 1-3-4-7
95
87.3
79.6
71.9
64.2
10
Gim thu do tr li vay
4.8
3.6
2.4
1.2
11
CFAT n = 5+10
+ 200
-54
-51.2
-48.4
-45.6
-42.8
12
CFATda = 9 - 11
-500
149
138.5
128
117.5
107
-200
+200
-300
Qun l d n
1 - 147
Ch
Nu phng n huy ng c vn vay th CFAT ca d n
khc vi li sau thu + khu hao.
Chi ph u t ban u bao gm TSC v TSL (vn L)
Gi tr TSC nm cui cng c cng vo dng tin trc
thu v cng thm vo dng tin sau thu ca d n thu thu
nhp (Thu nhp hot ng bt thng)
Vn lu ng : a dng gia tng VL vo dng tin ca d
n.
Ch tiu
Nm
Doanh thu
500
550
600
700
700
Nhu cu VLD
200
220
240
280
280
-20
-20
-40
+280
Gia tang vn
-200
Qun l d n
1 - 148
Bi tp p dng
Mt d n u t c tng s vn u t ban u l 150 triu ng.
Trong vn u t cho TSC l 120 triu ng, cn li l vn lu
ng. D kin d n thc hin trong nm nm. Doanh thu hng nm l
80 triu ng v chi ph vn hnh hng nm l 30 triu ng. TSC
c php tnh khu hao u vi thi gian tnh khu hao l 5 nm (gi
tr cn li bng 0). Cui nm th nm d n thanh l ti sn c nh vi
gi tr l 20 triu ng v thu hi vn lu ng l 30 triu ng.Thu
sut thu thu nhp l 20%.
a. Ch u t c u t d n hay khng khi chi ph s dng vn sau

thu l 10% (t sut chit khu)
b. Nu c NH cho vay 40% vn u t vi li sut 10%/nm, tr u
vn gc trong 5 nm. Nh u t c nn vay hay khng?
c. Tnh cc ch tiu hiu qu NPV, IRR, B/C, Tp ca d n
Qun l d n
1 - 149
Gii NPV = 48.39

0
Tng vn u t
Doanh thu
80
80
80
80
80
Chi ph vn hnh
30
30
30
30
30
Khu hao (120-0)/5 = 24
24
24
24
24
24
Thanh l TSC
20
Thu hi Vn L
30
CFBT = 2+5+6-1-3
150
50
50
50
50
100
TN chu thu = 2+5 -3 - 4
26
26
26
26
46
Thu TN = 8 x 20%
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
9.2
10
CFAT = 7 9
-150
44.8
44.8
44.8
44.8
90.8
11
Gi tr hin ti
-150
40.73
37.03
33.7
30.6
56.4
12
Chnh lch thu chi
48.39
-150
Qun l d n
1 - 150
Gii 51.29 > 48.39

0
-150
50
50
50
50
100
24
24
24
24
24
12
12
12
12
12
CFBT
Khu hao
Tr gc (40%x150=60)
N gc u nm
60
48
36
24
12
Tr li = 4 x 10%
4.8
3.6
2.4
1.2
Thu nhp chu thu
20
21.2
22.4
23.6
44.8
Thu thu nhp = 6 x 20%
4.24
4.48
4.72
8.96
CFATcsh = 1-3-5-7
-90
28
28.96
29.92
30.88
77.84
Gi tr hin ti
-90
25.45
23.93
22.48
21.06
48.33
10
Chnh lch
51.29
11
Khi khng vay
48.39
-60
Qun l d n
1 - 151
Phn tch nh hng khu hao

CFATx = CFBTx (1-t) + Dx . t
1. nh hng ca thi gian tnh khu hao trong m
hnh khu hao u.
2. nh hng ca m hnh khu hao
Qun l d n
1 - 152
VD
VD : Mt d n u t, u t vo thit b cng nghip l 1.200
tr , c tnh dng trong 10 nm v gi tr cn li ca ti sn c
nh cui nm th 10 l 200 tr nh thit b mi ny hng nm
c th gim c 240 tr chi ph vn hnh.
a) Xc nh dng tin sau thu ca d n trong trng hp lut
quy dnh thi gian tnh khu hao l 10 nm v gi tr cn li = 0,
thu sut thu thu nhp 20%.
b) Xc nh CFAT ca d n trong trng hp lut quy nh
khu hao trong 4 nm.
c) Xc nh CFAT ca d n trong trng hp lut quy nh
khu hao trong 15 nm
d) Xc nh NPV khi MARR = 10%
Qun l d n
1 - 153
a, Thi gian khu hao l 10 nm

0
10
-1200
240
240
240
240
240
240
240
240
240
440
DKH
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
TN chu thu
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
120
320
Thu TN
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
64
216
216
216
216
216
216
216
216
216
376
CFBT
Li sau thu
CFAT
-1200
Qun l d n
Thi gian tnh l 4 nm: Hot ng khc c LN

<0
1 - 154
6-9
10
-1200
240
240
240
240
240
240
440
Khu hao
300
300
300
300
LN trc thu
-60
-60
-60
-60
240
240
440
T.N chu thu
240
440
Thu TN
48
88
240
240
240
240
192
352
CFBT
Li sau thu
CFAT
-1200
240
Qun l d n
Thi gian tnh l 4 nm: Hot ng khc c LN

>= 60
1 - 155
6-9
10
-1200
240
240
240
240
240
240
440
Khu hao
300
300
300
300
LN trc thu
-60
-60
-60
-60
240
240
440
T.N chu thu
-60
-60
-60
-60
240
240
440
Thu TN
-12
-12
-12
-12
48
48
88
252
252
192
192
352
CFBT
Li sau thu
CFAT
-1200
252
252
Qun l d n
1 - 156
Thi gian KH l 15 nm
0
19
10
-1200
240
80
440
80+400
TNCT
160
-40
Thu TN
32
-8
208
448
CFBT
D
Li sau thu
CFAT
-1200
Qun l d n
1 - 157
Phn tch nh hng ca khu hao

nh hng ca m hnh khu hao
D n tng kinh ph u t ban u l 10.000 v trong
gi tr ca TSC l 9000, VL 1000 d n tin hnh trong
2 nm gi tr cn li cui nm th 2 l 2000 trong gi
tr cn li ca TSC l 1000
D tnh doanh thu thun hng nm l 10.000, CPVH
hng nm 3000 xc nh dng tin sau thu ca d n khi
s dng m hnh khu hao u, theo kt s gi tr cn li,
SYD, thu sut thu thu nhp l 25%.
Qun l d n
1 - 158
Gii - m hnh khu hao u

0
Khu hao D
4 000
4 000
Doanh thu
10 000
10 000
CFVH
3 000
3 000
7 000
9 000 = 7 + 2
3 000
3 000
750
750
6250
8250
u t
10 000
CFBT
-10 000
TNCT
Thu TN
Li sau thu
CFAT
-10 000
Qun l d n
1 - 159
Gii - m hnh khu hao nhanh

0
Doanh thu
10 000
10 000
CFVH
3 000
3 000
7 000
9 000 = 7 + 2
6 000
2 000
1 000
5 000
250
1 250
6750
7750
u t
10 000
-10 000
CFBT
K.h
TNCT
Thu TN
Li sau thu
CFAT
-10 000
Qun l d n
1 - 160
Gii - m hnh khu hao SYD

0
u t
Doanh thu
CFVH
CFBT
K.H
TNCT
Thu TN
Li sau thu
CFAT
10 000
10 000
3 000
3 000
7 000
9 000 = 7 + 2
5 333
2 667
1 667
4 333
417
1 083
6 583
7 917
10 000
-10 000
-10 000
Qun l d n
1 - 161
Phn tch nh hng khu hao

Kt lun
1. nh hng ca thi gian tnh khu hao: Thi
gian tnh khu hao cng ngn cng c tt
2. nh hng ca m hnh khu hao: M hnh khu
hao cng nhanh cng tt
Qun l d n
1 - 162
Phn tch nh hng ca li vay

Mt d n u t i hi doanh nghip b ra 1000$ v cho thu
nhp 1120$ cui mt nm. s tin l 1000$ l s tin chi mua
1 ti sn s tin 1120$ l s tin thu c do hot ng v thu
hi ti sn cui nm. nh gi d n ny nh u t s
dng chi ph s dng vn l 10%.
+ t = 0%/ t = 20%
- 100% vn ch u t
- 100% vn vay vi li vay 10%
-50% vn vay vi li vay 10%
-Xc nh NPV, IRR ca CSH, DA v N

Qun l d n
1 - 163

1. Thu sut thu thu nhp = 0
2. Vay 100%
Nam
NPV (10%)
IRR
CFBTDA
-1000
1120
18,18
12%
CFBTn
+1000
-1100
10%
20
18,18
Vo cung
CFBTCSH
Qun l d n
1 - 164
Phn tch nh hng ca lI vay

1. Thu sut thu thu nhp = 0
2. Vay 50%
t
NPV (10%)
IRR
NPV (13%)
CFBTDA
-1000
1120
18,18
12%
-8,85
CFBTn
+500
-550
10%
+13,27
CFBTCSH
-500
+570
18,18
14%
4,42
Qun l d n
1 - 165

+ MARR = rvay NPVn = 0
CFATcsh = CFATda + CFATn
NPVcsh = NPVda + NPVn
NPVcsh = NPVda
+ IRRda > rvay IRRcsh > IRRda
+ MARR > rvay
NPVn (MARR) > 0
NPVcsh > NPVda

Qun l d n
1 - 166

1. Vi thu sut thu thu nhp = 20%
2. D n huy ng 50% vn vay
t
NPV (8%)
IRR
NPV (10%)
CFATDA
-1000
1096
14,81
9,6%
-3,64
CFATn
+500
-540
8%
9,091
CFATCSH
-500
556
14,81
11,2%
5,455
Qun l d n
1 - 167

1.
Vi thu sut thu thu nhp = 20%
2.
D n huy ng 100% vn vay
NPV (8%)
IRR
NPV (10%)
CFATDA
-1000
1096
14,81
9,6%
-3,64
CFATn
+1000
-1080
8%
18,18
CFATCSH
16
14,81
V
cng
14,54
Qun l d n
1 - 168
Phn tch lm pht v phn tch gi c bit

trong phn tch d n
Hai trng hp:

1. Khng c thu sut thu nhp doanh nghip
2. C thu sut thu nhp doanh nghip
Qun l d n
1 - 169
Khng c thu sut thu nhp doanh nghip

Mt doanh nghip u t vo mua thit b mi vi gi 10000$
d kin s dng trong 5 nm v gi tr cn li = 0. c tnh
mi nm DA bn 1600 sp, sn xut s sn phm ny ngi
ta phi dng 2000 kg NV theo gi hin hnh 2$/1kg NVL. Gi
bn 10$/1SP, chi ph tin cng 8000$/1 nm. Gi s khng c
thu thu nhp, TSC c khu hao u trong 5 nm
1. Gi tr trong 5 nm thc hin DA gi c u trn thc t
khng bin ng v gi ca cc hng ho v dch v s dng
trong DA cng khng bin ng. MARR = 10%.
2. Gi s mc tng gi khung trn TT l 5% (lp = 5%) v cc
hng ho v dch v trong DA cng tng theo 5%.
Qun l d n
1 - 170
Gii
0
Chi ph u t
Doanh thu
16 000
16 000
16 000
CVH
12 000
12 000
12 000
CFBT
4 000
4 000
4 000
10 000
-10 000
C lm pht
1
Chi ph u t
Doanh thu
16 000x1.05
16000x1.0 16000x1.05
5^2
^5
CVH
12 000x1.05
12000x1.0 12000x1.05
5^2
^5
CFBT
4 000x1.05
4000x1.05 4000x1.05^
Qun l
^2
5 d n
10 000
-10 000
1 - 171
Khng c thu sut thu nhp doanh nghip

Khi khng c lm pht:
NPV= -10.000+4.000 (P/A,10%,5)=5163,16

Khi c lm pht R = 15,5 %
NPV = 5163,168
Nhn xt
Trong trng hp khng phi ng thu thu nhp cc hng ho v

dch v ca DA cng tng theo ng t l lm pht.
NPV trong trng hp c lm pht v khng c lm pht cng nh
nhau.
Trong phn tch DA c th dng dng tin thc vi li sut thc
cng ging nh dng tin danh ngha vi li sut danh ngha.
Qun l d n
1 - 172
Trong trng hp thu sut 0 30%

0
.....
-10 000
4 000
4 000
CFBT
Khu hao (D)
2 000
2 000
CFBT (1-t)
2 800
2 800
Dt
600
600
CFAT
3 400
3 400
- 10 000
C lm pht
1
CFBT
Khu hao (D)
CFBT (1-t)
Dt
CFAT
-10 000
- 10 000
4 000x1.05^1
4 000x1.05^5
2 000
2 000
2 800x1.05^1
2 800x1.05^5
600
600
2800x1.05^1+600
2800x1.05^5+600
Qun l d n
1 - 173
Trong trng hp thu sut 0, 30%

NPV = -10.000 + 3400 (P/A, 10%, 5) = 2888,2
NPVlf = 2601,9
Nhn xt:
Lm pht lm cho li nhun DA gim trong trng
hp tnh thu thu nhp doanh nghip
Lm pht nh hng n kh nng thanh ton ca
DA
Gi tr thc ca ng i vay s gim khi c lm
pht.
Qun l d n

Qlda - VT

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P1. Tng quan v qun l d n

Phan Th Vinh B mn Qun l cng nghip

Email: vinhpt-fem@mail.hut.edu.vn / phanthevinh@gmail.com

Ti sao phi bit qun l d n?

Phn 1: Tng quan v qun l d n

Khi nim, phn loi u t

5. Khi nim qun l d n

Tng quan v d n (tip)

Phn bit u c v u t? (ti u c

Theo c tnh ca dng tin (xem phn loi

Chc nng qun l vn

u t gin tip: Ch u t khng trc tip

Tp hp cc xut b vn trung v di hn tin hnh u t

Khi nim khc v d n

Phn loi theo quy m

D n trong lnh vc thng mi dch v

G2: Phn tch v lp d n

G3: Ph duyt v thm nh

G4: Trin khai thc hin d n

G5: Nghim thu tng kt v gii th

5 giai on ca chu trnh qun l d n

Lp k hoch thc hin d n

Kt qu: S t chc v nhn lc WBS,

Tiu ch thnh cng ca d n

Cc bn lin quan lin quan ca d n

Nhng bn lin quan ca mt d n

Nhng ngi s dng thnh qu ca d n

iu kin thnh cng quan trng ca d n

Nguyn nhn tht bi thng gp ca d n

Cc k thut qun l d n chung

Cc vn qun l trong qun l d n

Cc quy lut qun l d n (1)

3. Li th ca cc mc tiu khng r rng l gip cho

Cc quy lut qun l d n (2)

Phn tch, nh gi v la chn d n

Phn 1: Phn tch v lp d n

Nghin cu kh thi d n (phn tch v lp d n)

Ni dung nghin cu kh thi

Nghin cu tnh hnh k.t tng qut

1. Nghin cu tnh hnh kinh t tng qut

1. Nghin cu tnh hnh kinh t tng qut

Xc nh k thut v quy trnh sn xut, a im

3.1. c tnh v cht lng sn phm

3.2. K thut v pp sn xut

+ Bn cht ca k thut sn xut.

b. La chn k thut v pp sn xut:

3.4. Cng sut ca d n

Khi nim: L s sn phm sx c trong mt n

3.5. Nguyn vt liu

3.7. Lao ng, tr gip k thut n.ngoi

S tr gip ca chuyn gia nc ngoi khi tip

3.8. a im thc hin d n

3.9. t ai v xy dng nh xng

4. Nghin cu v tnh hnh ti chnh

4. Nghin cu v tnh hnh ti chnh

5. Phn tch nhy ca d n

Phn tch ti chnh

Li trong thi gian xy dng

Phn tch ti chnh

Ngun vn ch s hu. Chi ph vn ch s

Ngun vn vay. Chi ph l li vay

Ch trc v sau thu