2012

2050
2

 ,
:

1. , ,

2. ,
3. , ..
..
4. - , ..
..
5. , .. ..
6. , ..
7. , ..

8. , / Greenpeace
9. , ,
10. ,
11. ,

iv

I.

...................................................................1
I.1.

............................................................................. 1
I.2.

1
I.3.

....................................................... 2
II.

................................3
II.1.

................................................................... 3
II.1.1. ....................................... 3
II.1.2. .......... 3
II.1.3. .......... 3
II.2.

5
II.2.1. ...... 5
II.2.2. ..................... 6
II.2.3. ................................... 6
II.2.4. ........................ 7
II.2.5. ..................................... 7
II.2.6. ................ 7
II.3.

7
II.3.1. ...... 8
II.3.2.
.............................................. 10
II.3.3.
& ............................... 10
II.4.
...................................................... 11
III.
........................................12
III.1.

2010-2020 ........... 12
III.2.

2020-2050 ........... 14
III.2.1.
........ 17
III.2.2.

........................................... 20
III.2.3.

................................ 21

III.2.4.

27
III.2.5.
........... 27
III.2.6.
........................ 29
IV.
......................................................................... 32
IV.1.

.............................................................................. 32
IV.1.1.
............................................. 32
IV.1.2.
..................................... 35
IV.1.3.
...................................... 36
IV.1.4.
........................... 38
IV.2.
.......... 39
IV.2.1.

......................................... 39
IV.2.2.
........................ 39
IV.2.3.

............................................ 42
IV.2.4.

..................................................... 44
IV.3.

44
IV.3.1.
.................. 45
IV.3.2.

................................................. 45
IV.3.3.


.............. 46
IV.3.4.
...... 46
IV.3.5.

2050 .......................................... 47
IV.4.

........................................................................... 48
IV.4.1.

48
IV.4.2.

49
IV.4.3.
:
.............. 49
IV.5.
......................................................... 50
IV.5.1.
. 50

vi

IV.5.2.
/ ........... 50
IV.6.

......................................................................... 51
IV.6.1.
&

51
IV.6.2.

...................................... 51
IV.6.3.
& 52
IV.6.4.
&
.................................... 52
IV.6.5.

53
IV.6.6.

................................................. 54
V. ....................................................55
V.1.

.................................................... 55
V.2.

.................................................... 55
V.3.
........ 59
V.4.
.. 59
V.5.
................................................................ 60
VI. ...........................................................61
1.
............. 61
2.


CO2. .................................................................... 61
3.

2020 ................................ 61
4.

..................... 62
5.

............................................................... 63
6.

........................... 67
7.

.................................... 67
8.

68

vii

I.

I.1.

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(COM(2008) 781 ),
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http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/roadmap/index_en.htm

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Energy Package-CEP), (ETS) (, 2012
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(COM(2011) 109 ),

20% 2020 .

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3

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/strategies/2010/2020_en.htm

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20

II.2.1.

, 2008, 2009
, ,



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,

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Mtoe

( & ). ,
,
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10

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

1990
2009,

10,5%,

( 2,4% 6,0%, ),
. ,
54,7%,
,
1990-2009,
6%.
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11

III.


, ,
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,
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, ( 2050),

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.
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20% ,
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III.1. 2010-2020
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-,

20% 1990 ( 2009/29/), 20%
( 2009/28/)
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4%
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, .
3851/2010
20%. 40%
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10% .

2010-2020,

.

-

12

 .
, , 2010,
,
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.

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III.1.1
,
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13,3GW , 7,5GW,
3GW 2,5GW.

(, ),
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2020

30

45%

40%

% ...

25

35%

30%

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% /
GW

25%
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15%

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/
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10%

2020

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, , ,
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.

2020 ,
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0
2009

2015

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III.1.3
2020

80
70

60

50
TWh

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2005

0%

%

28/2009/

5%

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10

0
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TIMES-MARKAL, WASP, COST

13


(40%) 2020,
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1 ,


20202050.


, ,

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(CCS),
.

,

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14

2010,

, , . , . 2010
( 2012) .


()
- (Wh)
CO2 (ton)

. 2010
. 2012
. 2010
. 2012
. 2010
. 2012
. 2010

2005
2.9%

2011
-2.6%
-5.0%
21.96
21.1
60.65(9.51)
53.56(7.88)

21.6
57.8
110.9

. 2012

2015
2.7%
3.0%
22.25
21.31
61.47(16.97)
54.02(12.03)

2020
2.9%
3.3%
24.11
22.93
68.46(27.27)
60.83(23.40)

109

102

93

104

105

95

1,2 2020 , .
1300MW 20-20-20. ,
CO2 .
2,2GW 2,5GW 2020. 2014
.
2030-2050
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. 20/ CO2
2012.
CO2 20% 2020 30% .

,

2020-2050
(COM(2011)112Final) (COM(2011)855/2).
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CO2 ,

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15

 ,
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2020-2050.
2050
60%-70%
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( 100%) . , ,
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85%
.
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.

III.2.1 CO2
2050
2
120

100

Mt CO2

80

/
60

40

( )
20

2030

2040

2050

16

 III.2.1 CO2

.

,
( ) .
( ),
CO2 60%-70%
2050 2005,
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,
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III.2.1, ( )
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CO2 2005. , CO2 48% 2005.
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) CO2, .

CO2 60%-70%
2005.

( ) 85%-100% (.
III.2.2) ,

,

60%-70% 2050.

III.2.2
120%
% (. )
100%

% / (. )
% (. 60%)

80%
% / (. 60%)
% (. 60%)

60%

% / (. 60%)
40%
% (. 70%)
% / (. 70%)
20%
% (. 70%)
0%

% / (. 70%)
2009

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

,

,



.

2040

2045

III.2.1.

2050

2050,

, .
III.2.3,
63% 2050 ( 45%
2020) . , , 56%
17


,
13% 2050, . -,
-

CO2 (CCS)
2020-2050, 6% 2050.

III.2.3
120000

100000

/
80000

GWhe

60000

/
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40000

& B
20000

. -
.

2030

2040

2050

III.2.4
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45

40

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GW

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&
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5
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2040

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2050 10% 13%
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( ),
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2025-2030
3000 MW
2050.

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2020-2050.

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19

,
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44% ( ) 49% ( ) .
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III.2.5 .
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( 1 GW)
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, 2040-2050.

III.2.5


2050

2050
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GW

III.2.2.

III.2.6 ,
. ,

2050,
2020.

20

 III.2.6
50000
45000
40000
35000

ktoe

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25000

20000
15000

10000

5000
0

2030

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2050,
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2020 4%,
( 10%) . (1990-2010) 46%.

21

 III.2.7
25000

20000

ktoe

15000

10000

5000

2030

, ,
III.2.7, 2020-2050
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(1% 2% ), ,
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2050

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( 2020
).
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2020 2050
. 2050
50%
.

22

 III.2.8
III.2

7500

ktoe

7000
6500
6000
5500
5000
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

-60%

-70%

-60%

-70%

,
.

,

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2020.

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( ,
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2050.
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2050.

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,

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,


25%
%

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% .

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23

 III.2.9
25000

20000

ktoe

15000

10000

5000

2030

: 2020
2050,
,
.
,

,

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,
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2050

30%100% .
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42% (. III.2.11) .
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(
) (
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24

 III.2.10 2050
2009

41%.
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40%,

25

 , 36%.

III.2.11

( ,
) . , 2050
20% (
),
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2050 34%-39%
,
28%.

,

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. , 8%
42%.

,
( . III.2.12),
.
,
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2020-2050.
5%
,
13%.
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.
, 6%,

18%.

45%
40%
35%

30%
25%
20%

15%
10%
5%
0%
2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

III.2.12

14%
12%

10%
8%

()
6%
4%
2%
0%
2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

20%
18%
16%

14%

()

12%
10%
8%

6%
4%
2%
0%
2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

26

 :
2020, . 2050,
.
III.2.4.

2050,
,

, .

III.2.13

. , . 2050
.

,
( ).
2020,
.

III.2.13
6000
5000
4000

ktoe

3000

2000

1000

2030

2040

,
,
2020 ( ),

2020, .
, ,

, ,
(6)
.
III.2.5.

, (. III.2.1)
47% 59%-71%

2050

2050.

4,1-4,8Mtoe 2050 39%-54%
.
, 3,
. 4 2009/28/, 38%-57%
2050, .
()
,
.

27

 ,
CO2. ,

,

.

( , , , )
.
III.2.14
0,100

.
/

( 2005, kgoe
).

kgoe/Euro

0,090

-60%

0,080

-70%
0,070

-60%
-70%

0,060

III.2.14 2050,
27% 2020,
, ,
-

0,050
2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

III.2.1 , , / 2050
%

%
2009/28/

% /

47%

39%

38%

75%

(60%)

59%

43%

51%

84%

(70%)

66%

54%

56%

85%

- (60%)

59%

43%

52%

80%

- (70%)

66%

54%

57%

83%

(60%)

65%

42%

49%

99%

(70%)

71%

53%

50%

99%

- (60%)

65%

45%

49%

99%5

- (70%)

68%

50%

49%

99%5

5 (
)

28

, .2.15
CO2, 2050
0,75-1,4 tCO2/toe.

, . , , (
) 79% 2005
40%

2050.
.
III.2.15 2 CO2

III.2.6.

, .

2030 (. .2.16). ,
2030-2050 ,


.
III.2.16 /

/
140,00

120,00

100,00

/MWh

,
(
),
, CO2 .

80,00

60,00

4,00

- (60%)

40,00

(60%)

3,50

(60%)
(70%)

20,00

- (70%)

3,00

2,50

-60%

(70%)

-70%

2,00

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

60,00

-60%
1,50

-70%
1,00

/MWh

40,00

- (60%)
(60%)
(60%)
(70%)
- (70%)
(70%)

20,00

0,50

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2050

2025

2045

2020

2040

2015

2035

2010

2030

2005

2025

0,00

0,00

2020

tCO2/toe

2020

0,00

29

 ,
,
, ( ) 20252045
6%.
, CO2

(
).

(.. 45%)
, ,
.

. ,

, .

2020-2050 (. III.2.17)
20%
70% . 2050 (
3GW), ( 1GW)
CCS 85%.
60%
2005.

, ,
III.2.17 (2020-2050) /
80000
70000

60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0

2020-2025

2020-2030

2020-2035

2020-2040

2020-2045

2020-2050

- (60%)

(60%)

- (70%)

(70%)

- (60%)

- (70%)

(60%)

(70%)

(. .2.18), -

65% 2009 (. III.2.19).

30

 III.2.18 & (
)

III.2.19
/

20000

ktoe

15000

10000

5000

/ (. )

85000

25000

80000

75000

70000

65000

60000
50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

(. , .., ) 2050
2009

/
/

2030

2040

2050

III.2.19


.
(..,
)
( ) .

, .

(60%)

- (60%)

(60%)

- (60%)

(70%)

- (70%)

(70%)

- (70%)

,

20%
. - (70%) , . ,
,
- (70%) ( )
.

31

IV.

2020
, 2050, , , ,

,
.
, 2050, ,
, ,

. , , ,

.
:
/
,
,
/ ,
,
/
,

,

.
,

,



.
2020,

,
,
.

,
, ,
/
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,
.
,

.

IV.1.
,

1 2
()
,
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9% (2001-2005), 2006/32/.
2020,
,

2020, , .
,
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.

2050,

.
IV.1.1.

,
,
2050.

32


.

,

,


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- )

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,


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(kWh/m2)
.

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33

), 2020,

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34

 IV.1.1 /

IV.1.2.

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35

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IV.1.3.

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& ( ) ETS
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,
(COM(2011) 144 final).
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)

36

 . , ( )
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2050.

2050,
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.

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37

.IV.1.3 /

,

,









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/ /
(car sharing pooling)
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.
, ,
.

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.

.IV.1.4 /

,
/

CO2

38

IV.2.

.
( ), ,

,
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IV.2.1.
. ,
, ,
.
,
2009/72/ ( 3 ),
- , , 2015
.
,
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). : ()
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Target Model ()
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.
,

, pool
. ,
6 Common
6

1 2012
4001/2011 56 & 57 31 2012
, 118
. 4001/2011,

Action Services (CASK SA)

2012
Intraday market.
IV.2.2.

IV.2.2.1

.

.
,
2030,
,
.

2010-2020
1) ( 2014)
, . - .
400kV
( , ) ().
150kV

.
2) 2015-20,

400kV, / .
400kV
. 150kV
,

.
3) ,

,
() 94 . 4001/2011

39


.
) , , 2015. ,
,

() . .
(, ), . .
() , .
,
.
.
4)
,
(, ), .
5) 2015 ,

(),
, -EMS,
MMS.
6)

(.. ).

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40

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,

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.

IV.2.1 (: )

41

IV.2.2.2

, 1.800 . , 2.200 . 3.200

.

( /) .

(distribution management systems DMS)
. ( ) . , &
.
(GIS)

(Geographic
Information System GIS) .
, ( ).

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IV.2.3.1

III
,
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,
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,

.

&

.
,
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.

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, ).

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42

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,

() (),

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43


,
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IV.2.3.2

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)


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( ) ( ,
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/
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IV.3.

..,
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44

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2

2050,
():

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/, . ( , )
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2010,
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.
, 2
(
IV.3.3)
,
.

, &

. -

IV.3.2.

(, , .
) ,

,
.

,

45

(Gazprom), (Sonatrach) (Botas).

2007
.
(
),
.
2017.

:
.

. 2
, , .
.
(, ITGI
IGB)


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(, ).

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,

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IV.3.3.

, (.
).



159 km.
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. 2015.

(Aegean LNG)
IV.3.4.
IV.3.4.

,
,

.

.. , 4
..

.

,
.

,
,

46

.
,
,
(ITGI).
Edison.
ITGI ShahDeniz II
.
, , Edison
Bulgarian Energy Holding,
,
.

(.. , ).

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Stream ,
Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP)

. South Stream

. . ,
,
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.

IV.3.1 , (: 2010 2019

2010-2014, , 2010)

IV.3.5.
2050

2050
.

/ ) 60%-70% 2050 )
, -

,
( )

, , 2030-

47

2035
.

, ,

.

,

( )
LNG. , ,
, , .

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,
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(
/ )


2050.
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( ,
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40%) up-stream
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turbines).

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IV.4.
IV.4.1.

, , ,


.

:

( 65%).
2020 () .
, (
41,5%)
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48

).
( ) .
.

. 2015
,
,
, .

. 2020
, .

2012.
,
.
2012 .
, , .
2015 .

( diesel) .
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(/) ()
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/.
.

.

/, , , /
.

49



,


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IV.5.

IV.5.1.

39 . 3428/2005
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,

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50

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IV.6.1. &
,


(SET Plan).

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51

,
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52

 ,


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,
.
IV.6.5.

, , .


,
.
, , .
,
50%, . ,
300 3500
( ).
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.

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), , ,

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.
/,
/

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, ,

,
/.
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2,5
. .

.
, , , .
2009 The impact of renewable energy policy on
economic growth and employment in the European Union
, , 2020
410.000 .
, 8.000-10.000 ,

.
/ , ,


,
,
1,89% , 2010
2020 20,8%. , , 73.130
, 20102020.
,
,
, ,

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.

53

 ,
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2020,
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-
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, &,
.
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,
.

, , ,

54

V.

V.1.


, ,
.
,

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,
.
,
-
.


2050.
, ,
,


.
:

2050,
2020.

,
,
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,
, ,

.

V.2.

, ,
.


.
.

, . ,
, . CO2
(CCS), .


,
,
. ,
, , ,
.

55

CO2 2050
.
,
,
( 70%)

,
( 60%
70% 2005)
.
, ,

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,

.
2050, , ,

.

.

42%.
,


.
,
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)


.


2050,
. ,

.

,
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,

,

.


2050 .

.
. ,
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, ,
2050.

CO2 2050 ( 60% 70%
2005),
( 48%
2005), .

, 2050
2020.
,
2020, 2050. ,

,

56

 .
,
.

.


:
1.
60%-70% 2050 2005.
2. 85%-100% ,
.
3.
.
4.


.
5. .
6. 34%-39% 2050.
7. (42%)
(13%) (18%).
8. 60%-70%
2050.
9.
.
10.
.
11. .

.

CO2 2050,


. 2050
,

(
70%) .

,
. , / , .

,

,

CCS.

/
, .
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,

. , (
100%) 20%
85% 30%

2030

2050.

100%
.

57

.V.2.1

2050.

(
-).
(
).

.



CO2 .


.


.

( ).


.

,
.

.


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.

.


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.


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2050.


.

58

V.3.


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,
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(.. , , , ).

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V.4.
, .

.

CCS, ,

.

.




, .
,

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,

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)

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59

V.5.
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)
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) .
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.

,


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,

,
.

60

VI.

2.
CO2.

1.

1
(: )
(: Eurostat)

3,00%
2,50%
2,00%
1,50%

17
150
16

140

15

130

14

120
110

13

100

12

90

11

80

10
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

1,00%

($/Mbtu)

Eurostat (Eurostat "Long term population projections at national level" 2006, Baseline scenario).

2035
World Energy
Outlook, 2010 Edition (IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010)
(IEA)
2010. 2

2050. 2040 2050
, .

($/)

.
2020-20307,
2030-2050 .

($/)

0,50%

($/Mbtu)
0,00%
2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050

0,60%
0,40%
0,20%
0,00%
-0,20%
-0,40%
-0,60%
2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050

CO2 2020-2050,
2020 20/
CO2 (
...). H CO2


2050 (COM(2011) 112 Final),

,
.

3.

2020

.
7 ,
, 2010

61

 :
1. 2009/29/
2013-2020
2. 2009/28/
3. 2006/32/

4.
(COM(2011) 109 )
5. 2010/31/

6. 2004/8/

7. (COM(2011) 144
final)
8.
2050 (COM(2011) 112 Final)

4.

1950

(, ), . () , (, ,
) .
, 2013 , . ,

, .

, ,
. 2020
40% ,
, ,
.
,
, .

. ,
, . , -
, /,
-

5TWh ( 5% ).

:
2010-2020.
,
(
2912MW), ( V ,
1.050MW), (342MW) (880MW). ,
9.200MW ( / ).
,
40%
3.856MW
768MW
1.464MW .


(
750MW). ,
, .

.
,
/ (
),
.
(..
). ,

62


2012-2021.
2020-2030
,
,
22%, ,
2025.
,
, ,
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. , , ( ) / .

, ..
, (.. )

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2030-2050
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63

 3 (:

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/
10-12GW .

.
2050,
.


/
() .
4000MW,

.


3600
MW, 1800MW.

, , /,

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.
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, 30GW .
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10. 9

US DOE 2008 Wind Technology Roadmap, IEA,

2009
10

.

(),

.
8,5GW
2020,
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.
(
)
.

64

 .
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.



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. 11


.

300We.

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/ ( ) .

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. (: & 2007)

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.
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11

&
2007

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65

 5
(: )

(<1MWp) .


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.
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,



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- 2001

66

 6




, .


1000-1200MW.
,
..
/
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6

(: 2010)

6.

(Assessment
Assessment of the National
Potential for Combined Heat and Power in Greece,
Greece
2008 6,
3 10, 2 2004/8/,



92/42/, 2011),

,
(, ,
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. , 2020
2

,

. ,
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.
, ,
2050,
2050

.

7.

,

2050.

,
.
,
,
,

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.


2050
(
III.1)
.
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.

67

2050

20202050 1% , 1
1980 ().
,

50%
1980-2010,
.

( 1980)
1% 2% ,
50%, 1980.

. 100%, .
.


.

(HVO BGTL) 2030. ,

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.
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.

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.

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2020
.

,

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8.

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, )
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,


.
, ,
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68

30%-75%

.
.

2050
IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010
Scenarios and Strategies to 2050
2020 2050
.

1 /
2010

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2100

2100

..

690

..

400

690

665

640

615

590

565

540

400

400

400

400

400

400

400

1100
2220

2160

2100

2040

1980

1850

CO2
( )

3340

3220

3100

2980

2860

2700

CO2
( 2)

2930

2840

2750

2660

2570

2450

.. CO2 (
)

1070

1080

1090

1100

1110

1100

.. CO2 ( 2)

1410

1330

1250

1170

1090

970

(/KW)

(IGCC)

2010

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2000

2000

1910

1820

1730

1640

1550

1430

2500

2500

2390

2280

2170

2060

1950

1790

1300

1300

1230

1160

1090

1020

950

860

2800

2590

2380

2170

1960

1750

1500

(/KW)

2700

1450

1330

1210

1090

970

850

715

2200

2200

2090

1980

1870

1760

1650

1540

3700

3700

3320

2940

2560

2180

1800

1400

4760

4350

3860

3370

2880

2390

1900

1400

(IEA)
35%-45% (
) 2050.

69