Civic Report

No. 101 August 2015

POVERTY AND PROGRESS

IN NEW YORK IV
Crime Trends During the
First Six Months of 2015

Published by Manhattan Institute

Stephen D. Eide
Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute

C S L L
CENTER FOR STATE AND LOCAL LEADERSHIP
AT THE MANHATTAN INSTITUTE

Cover image: New York City Subway Map Metropolitan Transportation Authority. Used with permission.

Executive Summary
Since the de Blasio administration assumed office in January 2014, its record on public safety has been closely scrutinized. This civic report will attempt to inform the debate on crime in New York City by examining data on murders,
shootings, and total crime, six months into 2015.
Findings include:
During the first 18 months of the de Blasio administration, murders and other forms of crime trended in opposite directions. At each six-month interval over the past one and a half years, total crime has been down.
The murder rate, by contrast, has been slowly transitioning from being down (-10.5 percent, six months into
2014), to up (11 percent, six months into 2015).
Shooting incidents were up at each six-month interval since the Bloomberg administration left office.
The experience of low-income neighborhoods has been mixed. Some neighborhoods have experienced decreases in murders, shootings, and/or total crime. Others have seen virtually no relief from their high murder
rates since the de Blasio administration took office.
The greatest demand for policing, measured in terms of 911 calls, continues to be found mostly in lowincome neighborhoods.

Poverty and Progress in New York IV

CONTENTS
1

Crime Under de Blasio

Conclusion

Endnotes

Poverty and Progress in New York IV

About the Author

STEPHEN D. EIDE is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institutes Center for State and Local Leadership. His work
focuses on public administration, public finance, political theory, and urban policy. His writings have been published
in Politico, Bloomberg View, New York Post, New York Daily News, Academic Questions, and City Journal.
He was previously a senior research associate at the Worcester Regional Research Bureau, and holds a bachelors

Civic Report 101

degree from St. Johns College in Santa Fe, N.M., and a Ph.D. in political philosophy from Boston College.

August 2015

Poverty and Progress

in New York IV
Crime Trends During the
First Six Months of 2015

Stephen D. Eide

CRIME UNDER DE BLASIO

evels of crime and disorder under the de Blasio administration

have been debated with intensity, reflecting the mixed signals
sent by the hard numbers. In the first six months of 2015, murders and shooting incidents were both up, though total crime
was down, compared with the previous year. The year 2014 ended with
murders slightly down but shootings up and total crime down (Figure 1).
Another way to assess crime trends under de Blasio is to look at where
the city was at each six-month marker since the current administration
took office. As Figure 1 shows, the total crime data have been consistently headed in the right direction: negative six months in, one year in,
and 18 months in. Shooting incidents, however, have been up in each
case, and murders have gradually transitioned from negative to positive.
Shooting incidents seem to have functioned as a leading indicator for
murder trends, and total crime and murders are diverging. There were
60 more shootings in the first six months of de Blasios second year in
office than there were six months into Bloombergs last year.
Most crime in New York City is property crime (Figure 2). The decline in crime overall since January of 2014 has been driven by fairly
consistent drops in felony assaults, robberies, burglaries and grand larcenies (Figure 3).
The divergence between murders and total crime is unlikely to continue for long. Throughout New Yorks long crime decline, the rates
for murder and total crime not only moved in the same direction but
at roughly equal rates. Between 1990 and 2013, murders in the city

Poverty and Progress in New York IV

fell 85.2 percent and total crime fell 78.9 percent. It

therefore stands to reason that either the total crime
or murder trend since January 2014 is anomalous.
The NYPD is responding to the slight uptick in
murders with a range of initiatives. Both in 2014
and 2015, the Summer All-Out program provided additional manpower to high-crime precincts
by detailing officers who are normally assigned to
desk duty to patrol instead. (Early indications are
that this effort has helped reduce shootings during the summer months of 2015.) The Neighborhood Policing Plan, announced in June, will,
among other things, achieve what has, until now,
been an elusive goal: [to]establish a truly realistic
and workable community-policing plan across the
neighborhoods of a large city.1 New training and
managerial reforms will be supplemented by the
adoption of new technologies such as ShotSpotter
and crime-forecast software.2
Crime in New York City remains concentrated in
certain low-income neighborhoods. During the first
half of 2015, 41 percent of all murders occurred in

the eleven neighborhoods with five or more murders (Figure 4), and 40 percent of all shooting incidents citywide took place in the ten precincts with
the most shootings (Figure 5). In the case of both
murders and shootings, most of these high-crime
precincts have median household incomes below
that of the city as a whole (Figure 4 and Figure 5).
Total crime is more evenly distributed throughout
the whole city. The top ten precincts for total crime
are more economically diverse and represent only
23 percent of the citywide total (Figure 6).
Overall, low-income neighborhoods crime experience under de Blasio has been mixed. Some communities have consistently ranked near the top of
the crime rankings (Figure 7). East New Yorks
murder rate has climbed since de Blasio took office.
However, other poor communities have registered
over 60 percent declines in shootings compared
with this point last year (Figure 8).
Poor neighborhoods continue to be where the most
demand for policing is, measured in terms of the
volume of 911 calls (Figure 9).

Figure 1. Murder, Shootings and Total Crime,

First Six Months of 2014, 2014, and First Six Months of 2015

First Six Months of 2014

2014

First Six Months of 2015

Civic Report 101

Source: NYPD Compstat Reports

August 2015

Murder

Shooting Incidents

Total

2013

162

482

51,139

2014

145

511

50,509

# Change

-17

29

-630

% Change

-10.5%

6.0%

-1.2%

2013

335

1,298

111,335

2014

333

1,390

106,722

# Change

-2

92

-4,613

% Change

-0.6%

7.1%

-4.1%

2014

145

511

50,509

2015

161

542

46,775

# Change

16

31

-3,734

% Change

11.0%

6.1%

-7.4%

CONCLUSION
The crime figures have not been fluctuating under
the de Blasio administration. Trends are emerging
but they are contradictory. Throughout the first
18 months of the de Blasio administration, shooting figures were consistently higher, and murders
climbed. But total crime was down. It remains to
be seen whether the increase in murders proves
to be a leading indicator for where total crime is
heading, or vice versa. (Its worth asking whether
reduced use of the stop-question-and-frisk tactic
has something to do with the increase in shootings. In 2014, guns recovered by the NYPD and
other local agencies reached a nine year low.)3

Figure 2. Major Crimes Through

the First Six Months of 2015
Complaints

% of Total

Murder

161

0.3%

Rape

643

1.4%

Felony Assault

9,019

19.3%

Robbery

7,471

16.0%

Burglary

6,713

14.4%

Grand Larceny

19,447

41.6%

Grand Larceny Auto

3,321

7.1%

Total Crime

46,775

Source: NYPD Compstat Reports

One critical point of continuity with previous administrations is that violent crime remains overwhelmingly a problem for poor communities. With
respect to crime, the de Blasio administrations
record on ending the tale of two cities is mixed.
Some low-income neighborhoods have seen declines in crime; but for others, the murder rate remains essentially unchanged since the Bloomberg
administration left office.

Figure 3. Trends in Major Crime Categories under the de Blasio Adminsitration

First Six Months 2014

2014

First Six Months 2015

2013

2014

% Change

2013

2014

% Change

2014

2015

% Change

162

145

-10.5%

335

333

-0.6%

145

161

11.0%

Violent Crime
Murder
Rape

699

627

-10.3%

1,378

1,348

-2.2%

627

643

2.6%

Felony Assault

9,589

9,805

2.3%

20,297

19,831

-2.3%

9,805

9,019

-8.0%

Total

10,450

10,577

1.2%

22,010

21,512

-2.3%

10,577

9,823

-7.1%

Robbery

8,564

7,641

-10.8%

19,128

16,686

-12.8%

7,641

7,471

-2.2%

Burglary

8,082

7,803

-3.5%

17,429

17,277

-0.9%

7,803

6,713

-14.0%

Grand Larceny

20,745

20,627

-0.6%

45,368

43,370

-4.4%

20,627

19,447

-5.7%

Grand Larceny Auto

3,298

3,411

3.4%

7,400

7,858

6.2%

3,411

3,321

-2.6%

Total

40,689

39,482

-3.0%

89,325

85,191

-4.6%

39,482

36,952

-6.4%

Property crime

Source: NYPD Compstat Reports

Poverty and Progress in New York IV

Figure 4. Top Eleven Precincts for Murder, First Six Months of 2015
Precinct

Murders

Neighborhood(s)

Borough

Median Household
Income

75

11

East New York

Brooklyn

$33,700

67

East Flatbush

Brooklyn

$45,954

113

Jamaica

Queens

$51,251

46

Morris Heights

Bronx

$24,517

44

Highbridge

Bronx

$25,745

120

Stapleton, Mariners Harbor

Staten Island

$57,975

23

East Harlem

Manhattan

$30,335

70

Flatbush

Brooklyn

$41,681

77

Crown Heights

Brooklyn

$41,075

102

Richmond Hill

Queens

$58,578

City

161

$51,526

Percent of Citywide Total

41.0%

Source: NYPD and Planning Department; Median household income figures are based on figures for the precincts corresponding community
district; no community district precisely corresponds with the 120th precincts borders

Figure 5. Top Ten Precincts for Shootings, First Six Months of 2015

Precinct

Shooting Incidents

Neighborhood(s)

Borough

Median Household
Income

75

34

East New York

Brooklyn

$33,700

73

25

Brownsville

Brooklyn

$27,772

46

25

Morris Heights

Bronx

$24,517

67

24

East Flatbush

Brooklyn

$45,954

43

23

Parkchester

Bronx

$34,779

44

22

Highbridge

Bronx

$25,745

52

18

Fordham North

Bronx

$30,541

120

17

Stapleton, Mariners Harbor

Staten Island

$57,975

47

16

Williamsbridge

Bronx

$43,541

77

15

Crown Heights

Brooklyn

$41,075

City

542

Percent of Citywide Total

$51,526
40.4%

Civic Report 101

Source: NYPD and Planning Department; Median household income figures are based on figures for the precincts corresponding community
district; no community district precisely corresponds with the 120th precincts borders

August 2015

Figure 6. Top Ten Precincts for Total Crime, First Six Months of 2015

Borough

Median Household
Income

East New York

Brooklyn

$33,700

Midtown South

Manhattan

$93,808

Parkchester

Bronx

$34,779

Midtown North

Manhattan

$93,808

Highbridge

Bronx

$25,745

Fordham North

Bronx

$30,541

Precinct

Total Crime

Neighborhood(s)

75

1,590

14

1,220

43

1,112

18

1,025

44

1,007

52

994

67

951

East Flatbush

Brooklyn

$45,954

13

926

Murray Hill, Stuyvesant Town

Manhattan

$101,769

47

902

Williamsbridge

Bronx

$43,541

104

896

Ridgewood, Middle Village

Queens

$54,924

City

46,775

$51,526

Percent of Citywide Total

22.7%

Note: Total crime refers to the seven major index crimes tracked by the FBI. Many other serious crimes, such as misdemeanor assaults, are
not included in the total crime count.
Source: NYPD and Planning Department; Median household income figures are based on figures for the precincts corresponding community
district; Midtown precincts income figures are approximate

Figure 7. Top Five Murder Totals among Precincts, First Six Months of 2015

Precinct

Murders

Neighborhood(s)

Borough

Median
Household
Income

75

11

East New York

Brooklyn

$33,700

Ranking

First Six
Months of
2014 Ranking
(murders)

2014 Ranking
(murders)

3 (7)

1 (21)

67

East Flatbush

Brooklyn

$45,954

5 (5)

6 (12)

113

Jamaica

Queens

$51,251

5 (5)

9 (9)

46

Morris Heights

Bronx

$24,517

3 (7)

5 (14)

44

Highbridge

Bronx

$25,745

6 (4)

4 (15)

120

Stapleton, Mariners
Harbor

Staten
Island

$57,975

6 (4)

11 (7)

23

East Harlem

Manhattan

$30,335

8 (2)

14 (4)

70

Flatbush

Brooklyn

$41,681

9 (1)

15 (3)

77

Crown Heights

Brooklyn

$41,075

6 (4)

10 (8)

102

Richmond Hill

Queens

$58,578

9 (1)

15 (3)

114

Astoria & Long

Island City

Queens

$50,716

9 (1)

16 (12)

Source: NYPD Compstat Reports

Poverty and Progress in New York IV

Figure 8. Precincts Where Crime Is Down, First Six Months of 2015

Murder
Precinct

# Change, Yearto-Date

% Change, Yearto-Date

Neighborhood(s)

Borough

Median Household
Income

103

-6

-85.7%

Jamaica

Queens

$51,251

47

-6

-60.0%

Williamsbridge

Bronx

$43,541

48

-3

-60.0%

East Tremont

Bronx

$22,343

73

-3

-42.9%

Brownsville

Brooklyn

$27,772

32

-2

-100.0%

Central Harlem

Manhattan

$36,468

Precinct

# Change, Yearto-Date

% Change, Yearto-Date

Neighborhood(s)

Borough

Median Household
Income

47

-13

-44.8%

Williamsbridge

Bronx

$43,541

Shootings

69

-12

-60.0%

Canarsie & Flatlands

Brooklyn

$63,106

73

-12

-32.4%

Brownsville

Brooklyn

$27,772

40

-9

-47.4%

Mott Haven

Bronx

$21,318

83

-8

-66.7%

Bushwick

Brooklyn

$38,274

# Change, Yearto-Date

% Change, Yearto-Date

Neighborhood(s)

Borough

Median Household
Income

109

-240

-22.7%

Flushing

Queens

$51,251

75

-184

-10.4%

East New York

Brooklyn

$33,700

Total Crime
Precinct

113

-176

-19.3%

Jamaica

Queens

$51,251

108

-146

-23.8%

Sunnyside & Woodside

Queens

$54,136

114

-137

-14.8%

Astoria & Long Island City

Queens

$50,716

Civic Report 101

Source: NYPD Compstat Reports

August 2015

Figure 9. Most 911 Calls, First Six Months of 2015

Precinct

Calls

Neighborhood(s)

Borough

Median Household
Income

75

57,134

East New York

Brooklyn

$33,700

40

53,295

Mott Haven

Bronx

$21,318

43

48,939

Parkchester

Bronx

$34,779

14

48,084

Midtown South

Manhattan

$93,808

44

45,585

Highbridge

Bronx

$25,745

114

45,025

Astoria & Long Island City

Queens

$50,716

47

42,243

Williamsbridge

Bronx

$43,541

73

42,147

Brownsville

Brooklyn

$27,772

67

41,404

East Flatbush

Brooklyn

$45,954

46

40,933

Morris Heights

Bronx

$24,517

Source: NYPD, Planning Department, Furman Center; Midtown Souths income figure is approximate

Poverty and Progress in New York IV

Endnotes
1. Found at Mayor de Blasio, Commissioner Bratton Unveil New, Groundbreaking Neighborhood Policing Vision, Mayors Press Office, June 25, 2015.
2. Mayor de Blasio and Police Commissioner Bratton Launch New Gun Detection Technology, Mayors Press Office, March 16, 2015; Laura Nahmias and Miranda Neubauer, NYPD Testing Crime-Forecast Software, Capital
New York, July 8, 2015.

Civic Report 101

3. Aidan Gardiner, 3,552 Guns Were Seized in NYC Last Year, the Fewest in 9 Years, Feds Say, Dnainfo.com,
August 11, 2015.

August 2015

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Aaron M. Renn
Fred Siegel
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