8/26/2014

Number Sense
Basic Numeracy

This video is designed to

accompany
Module 1
in
Beyond the Numbers
Student-Centered Activities for Learning
Statistical Reasoning
a publication of the Van-Griner Publishing Company

Inference
The process of reasoning from the known
to the unknown.
E.g. A jury considering evidence and
inferring about guilt of defendant.
E.g. A politician looking at the poll results
and deciding whether she has a chance
in the fall election.

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Human Inference
An off-hand phrase taken here to mean
inferences we make from statistical
constructs like charts, graphs, numerical
summaries.
Think of it as how you operationalize
statistical descriptions.
Reflexive inferences.

Some Examples
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
sells 8.3 million in first 24 hours
more than 50,000 a minute.
The Associated Press. Published 6:28 PM
07/22/07

H0: same as placebo

HA: better than placebo

Not Always Easy

Lots of things can compromise seemingly
simple inferences.
Obstacles range from basic math to subtle
reasoning.
Goal is to learn to recognize and avoid
some of the more common pitfalls.

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Decimal Dilemmas
Did Plato inadvertently create the Atlantis
myth?
Claim made that over 4 million women in the
U.S. are battered to death each year by a
spouse or boyfriend.
Several Verizon customers were quoted
data rates like .015 cents per kilobyte.

Deceptive Displays
Parents

Seniors 1980

Tara Parker-Pope makes the case that

teenagers are more conservative than
their parents were.
For example, the fraction of highschool seniors who reported that they
had recently consumed alcohol fell
from 72% in 1980 (illustrated as the big
128 ounce - jug) to 40% in 2011
(illustrated as the little 8-ounce glass).

Seniors
2011

Kids

Impact Graphing

From: Fox Still Struggling With Basic Chart Concepts: Gas Price Edition.
February 21, 2012, by SHAUNA THEEL

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Source Graph at AAA

Parting Thought

From: Fox Still Struggling With Basic Chart Concepts: Gas Price Edition.
February 21, 2012, by SHAUNA THEEL

One-Sentence Reflection

Basic numeracy is a critical

step toward the goal of
correctly forming human
inferences from statistical
constructs.