.

2 ( )
.
, .
, ..

. , =.

. AB={x|xA xB ( )} .

. B={x|xA xB} .
B=, .

, .
\={x|xB x} .

( )
.
A ={x|xA} , A =\.
A B = W A B = .

A A = A

A = A

AW = W

A A = W

AB = AB \ A

A A = A

A =

AW = A

A A =

(A) = A

76

A = ( A)

B
A

B/A
A

1 Pr(W) = 1 ; Pr() = 0
2 Pr(A) 1
3 Pr(A) 0
4 Pr(A) = 1 - Pr( A) A .

(4)

5 A B , Pr(A) Pr(B)
6 Pr(A B) = Pr( A) + Pr(B) - Pr(A B)

(5)

P(A B) = P( A) + P (B) .
.2.1 10 1 10,
. .
1 , 2 ,

3 ,

4 ,

5 ,

6 ,

7 ,

8 ,

9 , 10

( ),
12.
: = 12,
11 12 : = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}= W.
, p = Pr( A) = Pr(W) = 1 .
.2.2 4 6 :
.
, .
: ,
= p = Pr( A) = 0.4
77

, = .
, : B = A ,

: Pr(B) = Pr( A) = 1 - Pr( A) = 1 - p = 1 - 0.4 = 0.6
: q = 1 - p = 0.6
: .. , ..
.
p
, q = 1 - p .

.3
1 2, 1 2
. 1 1
B2 2.
:
Pr(B|A) = ,
.. B .

. :
, Pr(B|A)=Pr(B),
.. , B .

(6)

( ):
Pr(B) = Pr(A)Pr(B|A)

(7)

,
.. 1, 2.
, Pr(B|A)=P(B) P(AB)=P(A)P(B). B=BA
=B
Pr(B) = Pr(A)Pr(B)

( )

(8)

,
.

78