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Public Opinion Leadership Analysis Using Methods of Social Network Analysis (SNA)
Public Opinion Leadership Analysis Using Methods of Social Network Analysis (SNA)
Introduction
This paper addresses the issue of the
application of formal models using
methods of social networks analysis (SNA)
to political leadership analysis.
Political leaders
Political parties have leaders who deal with and respond to social
demands. Usually (but not always), the most important leaders of
political parties are the presidents, with a symbolic importance for
the political party.
At the same time, and in the words of Luhmann (1991), the
language has a structural coupling with consciousness; and in that
sense, there is awareness (consciousness) because there is
language, and vice versa.
So, what politicians say is evaluated in relation to their actions (i.e.,
it is analyzed to what extent their language is associated with his
conscience, or in other terms, the correspondence between what
they say and what they will do), in the same way as other social
leaders (rabbis , priests, community leaders).
Political discussions between leaders of different political
orientations tend to reproach mismatch between saying and doing.
Leaders evaluation
When a leader is analyzed and rated, it is necessary to consider
different types of opinions, usually transmitted in semantic scales
as very good, good, fair, bad, very bad; they are usually
summarized as positive (very good, good) and negative (bad, very
bad) image. Or, respondents are asked to evaluate the leaders on
a simple 0-10 scale (0=strongly dislike and 10=strongly like).
Some individuals who know the leader A, do not have sufficient
information to evaluate him. Also we find people who do not know
about the leader A. In that regard, it is relevant to consider the
knowledge and ignorance of the leader; it is assumed that the
greater the knowledge (visibility) of a leader, the greater is his
political capital or influence.
One way of analyzing this information is simply to calculate a
share of positive assessments of the negative.
Evaluation of leaders in
polls
Evaluation scale (1-10)
Respo
ndent
Leade
rA
Leade
rB
Leade
rC
10
TABAR
FIDEL CASTRO
LUIZ IGNACIO
VASQUEZ
TABAR VASQUEZ
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
R Pearson
FIDEL CASTRO
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
R Pearson
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
R Pearson
HUGO CHVEZ
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
R Pearson
MICHELLE BACHELET
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
R. Pearson
EVO MORALES
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
MICHELLE
LULA DA SILVA
R Pearson
HUGO CHVEZ
22694
,213
**
,423**
,231**
,449**
,354**
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
22694
22694
22694
22694
22694
,382
,656
,298
**
,385**
22694
22694
,423
,382
,000
BACHELET
,213**
,000
**
EVO MORALES
**
**
**
,000
,000
,000
,000
22694
22694
22694
22694
,415
,531
**
,565**
,000
,000
,000
,000
**
22694
22694
22694
22694
22694
22694
,231**
,656**
,415**
,344**
,469**
,000
,000
,000
,000
22694
22694
22694
22694
22694
22694
,449**
,298**
,531**
,344**
,580**
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
22694
22694
22694
22694
22694
22694
,354**
,385**
,565**
,469**
,580**
,000
,000
,000
,000
22694
22694
22694
22694
,000
22694
22694
Here we see that the evaluation of Hugo Chavez is correlated with the evaluation of
Fidel Castro. Source: Latinobarmetro
Political networks
Input dataset:
Normalized Centrality Measures
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
a
b
c
d
e
f
Lider
1
2
3
4
Degree
Closeness Betweenness Eigenvector
------------ ------------ ------------ -----------16.667
54.545
0.000
40.825
16.667
54.545
0.000
40.825
16.667
54.545
0.000
40.825
16.667
54.545
0.000
40.825
16.667
54.545
0.000
40.825
16.667
54.545
0.000
40.825
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
Historically first and conceptually simplest measure isdegree centrality, which is defined as the number of links incident upon a node
(i.e., the number of ties that a node has). The degree can be interpreted in terms of the immediate risk of a node for catching whatever is
flowing through the network (such as a virus, or some information). In the case of a directed network (where ties have direction), we
usually define two separate measures of degree centrality, namelyindegreeandoutdegree.
Betweennessis a centrality measure of avertexwithin agraph. Betweenness centrality quantifies the number of times a node acts as
a bridge along the shortest path between two other nodes.
Even if the political leader is dead, and the node has not a
physical existence, all the other nodes and relationships between
them are strictly empirical. Between two individuals who share
the same leader, a potential connection exists, mediated through
the leader.
Political networks
A political network is usually not superimposable with other
political network. They are positional (a political position). If a
person is leftist, he cannot be at the same time right wing. If you
are a democrat you cannot be at the same time, republican.
This relates to the concept of spatial voting; and positions in
politics. Also, in Schmitt (1966) we find his best-known
formulation, the distinction between friend and enemy (Schmitt,
1996, p. 27); this concept is similar to that of non
superimposable networks.
In a similar way, religion networks are not superimposable. You
cannot be catholic and muslim at the same time.
Usually people who are not in political networks are undecided
in voting decision.
Social networks
Social networks
Social networks are interactions between
nodes, connected with different kind of social
interdependency.
Latent and
saturated
Networks
In the Figure a
network of four nodes
is represented with
program UCINET (a,
b, c, d) that have all
the six possible
bidirectional
connections among
them. We call this
connection a
saturated connection
-- it has all the
possible interactions
--. Usually a latent
networks has this
characteristic.
Random networks do not describe the usual situation of a populist leadership with a central node.
Ego Nets
Network characteristics
These network models can show different
characteristics.
Suppose to interact or not in a network it is equally
probable (0.5, or 1 / 2).
If each of the four individuals (a, b, c, d) has a
probability of 1 / 2 to interact with the network (i.e.,
to be or not to be in a social movement), the
probability of a saturated connection is equal to 1 /
16 (0.0625).
The probability
decreases
exponentially.
With these
assumptions, the
probability of a
network of 7
simultaneous
interactions
(similar to Figure 2)
is 1 / 128,
0.007812.
Figure 2
Language
One of the specificities of human
societies is its coordination
through generalization of symbols,
such as money (Parsons, 1982).
Conclusions
Leadership studied with polls
nowadays, can be enriched by the
analysis of networks with SNA.
By introducing the idea of social
network and Latent or potential
networks Models, the leadership
analysis is enriched.
Conclusions
Individuals are usually engaged in various latent social
networks: economic and monetary exchange, language,
religion. Social classes should be studied as latent
networks, usually with less organizational basis.
The opinions (and voting) usually are influenced by social
networks inclusion.
Political networks tend to overlap with other potential social
networks.
Usually the opinion of an individual are influenced by his
membership to different potential social networks.
Conclusions
A statistical model of a social
phenomenon may clarify a theory
(explanatory function), and also to
represent a recurring process in abstract
form (Farraro, 1997, op. cit), enriching
the dominant systematic empiricism of
the social sciences (Willer, 1996).
Formalization helps us understand the
nature of the phenomenon.
Conclusions
The development of models of SNA (Socio
centric or Ego centric ) and the collection of
data about networks is potentially useful, and
may improve the understanding of
phenomena such as power, public opinion,
political leadership and political movements.
Including modeling, even without a direct
reference to empirical observable data, helps
to improve the understanding of social
phenomena and to increase the relevance of
social science.
Thank you
moliva@untref.edu.ar
https://neotvlab.academia.edu/MiguelOliva