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    343 Exam 2

    Uploaded by

    iecollaboration

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    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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    of 7
    WA Se IMSE 343. EXAM2A_ February 28,2006 Nam. ‘There are 33 questions each worth 3 points except question 33 is worth 4 points. Given: A service company wants to locate a new department store using 3 alternative locations. They want to Age the Factor- Rating Method to determine the new site based on the maximum value and the following data: Factor Weight Location A Location B Location © Labor 3 90x35 = 270 _| 70 60 Taxes 3 6005 300 | 60 80 Security 2 20 = 50 60 Glo Gro Joo 1. Location ¢ Give the letter and score of the location alternative that should be chosen: Given: The Blue Sail Co. has a choice of two locations to build a plant. The fixed and variable costs for the two alternative locations are given below: ‘costs [NC AR wy Fixed $7,000 | $10,000 _| $15,000 Variable | $10x200_[ $7 $5 7p Oe 17000 7r a Ne. Which alternative location is the lowest total cost at 2,000 units? X_€ 1600 _ Over what range of mumber of units (x) alternative NC is the low-cost choice (must de exact calculated numbers and not picked off of a grid)? Joos FIOK = 70,0004 7* 7OOU H/0n 2 SOCOM - gx = 3000 5x = F000 27000 = 16000 -Yo & (al — f Be ot © ~ “(ee Ah Given: The Light Truck Co. wants to build a new distribution facility to ship repair parts to three warehouses. ‘The company will use the “Center-of-Gravity Method” to decide where the new distribution facility would be built. The Volume and map coordinates for the three warehouses are shown below: Collection Points | Volume | (X,Y) Coordinates _ 7oo® _ 473, A 5000 | 9.2) X= 7,000 B 3000 | (7.4) 6 Cc 2000 | 3.8) ye 4700 = 4a? D 1000 12,9) 1 17, 000 4, ( 6:1, 4.8°7_) what is (X) coordinate where the collection center should be located (one decimal)? nD, oakad Gn (x) 7 Given: The Blue Company's 2004 and 2005 sales demand is listed below. The sales for year 2006 is forecasted to be 4800 units. Month | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Ma & {-2003 [220 [210 | 230 | 230 | 240 2004 | 250 | 270 | 280 | 285 |” 300 2005 | 270 | 290 [ 300 | 315 | 340 jul_| Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total 3, 20 | 300 | 250 240 230 150 [ 2600] _ 1007/2, = 9p 340 | 320 | 310 | 280 | 260 | 200 | 3405 |+ g 380 | 380 | 350 | 310 | 290 | 220 | 3795 |+ YO ho. = 306.67 > 5 306.67 SDS _ Whatis the seasonal ae for the month of June (3 decimals)? /. F74.9 F-Inde SBD __ Whats the forecasted sales in units for the month of June in year 2006 (nearest unit)? -| 2 0078/3, > 279,94. oS aro + 2408 +3793 =! 36 BOO! 2400 we Given: Robert is the production manager at a company, which manufactures diesel engines. Robert needs a demand forecast for the next year to help decide whether to add new production capacity. The initial forecast for 2005 was 7800 units. Alpha=.8 The actual sales for year 2005 was 7000 units. Use Exponential Smoothing without trend. = 920 ~ 306.67 = 413 vy 5 160 1 2 Forecast for year 2006 Fe Rea te (Acy -¥.4) Fx = 700+ 2(7000 ~ 7800) Given: The Hassick Corp wants to forecast the next months Feb 2006 sales using the FIT method. The initial forecast (step 1) was 78,000 for Jan and the initial Trend (step 2) was 500 units. Alpha = .8 and Beta=.4 Demand for Jan was 80,000 units. Use Exponential Smoothing w/Trend: 8. O40 Forecast for February (no decimal — round off)? —| Fe > wlan) U8) UF ar Fis) .# (0,000) + (\=8) ( 70004502) Fy = 74,500 79,500 +400 Tee B( Fe Fun) + UB TA = 4 (74,800 ~ 7000) * (eb) S00 = 400 es Given: The JP Holly Co. wants to use a regression line to predict the next ronth’s sales. They plotted points and found a linear relationship exists. (b= 3.71 and a= 25.91) Actual sal¢s demand in (000) for year 2006: ue jt oe 4 be37)* Month x y xs xy v8 23. Jan 4 30 1 30 900 a= asd Feb 2 35 4 70 1225, Mar 3 45 9 135 2025 Apr 4 40 16 © 1601600 / May 5 40 25 200 1600 7 = | Jun 6 45 36-270 «2025S xy = | 92300 25.41 Jul 7 55 49 385 3025 743! | Aug 8 50 64 400-2500 [7900-25.91 (400) ~S (4s Sep 9 50 81 450 200 ————— Oct 10 60 100 600 3600 17-2 Nov 1 70 121 770 4900 Dec 12 80 144 960 6400 SUM 78 600 650 4430 32300 9. 27,850" _ Whatis the forecast in units for the sales for February 2006? (oe —| 10. _4 5.64 "Whats the “measure of the variability around the regression line” in units? a. -A i. +} nat is the measure of the strength of the relationship between x and y variables? Jz a+bx Js asad +3,7\ (14) VW é g yj: 77.83 cS AS r 2 oBER RV BY fre (oss) 702] 12(22300) — b00*] vee 48 Given: The forecast of Joe’s Pizza and actual demand for the past six weeks are given below. Also, Joe has determined that most recent demand probably should be weighted with the highest number if he decides to use the Weighted Moving Average. He used weights of 12,34. YS¥E/Mad Aes cave MAN Week Feast Demand Esse RSEE Etter Feusc MAD al 1 60 sal “3 = ig « SAL 2 1” 65 2 S = fo[e 3 yo. 10 0) 28g 3 80 90 3 1S S 2% 13 4 90 1 5 asj4 ft. +42. What is the tracking signal at the end of week 4? 13.__"76 __ Using the Moving Average Method, what is the forecast for week 4 (n=4)? 14.__ 24 __ Using the Weighted Moving Average, what is the forecast for week 4 (n=4)? 15,___NS_Using the Naive Method, what is the forecast for week 5 = 99 ~ 83.8 309 = 2th: 95RD Given: The Gibson Electric Company makes electrical contacts. The company uses economic forecasts from the “federal government to predict the yearly sales. The company wants to forecast the yearly sales for 2006 for a sziven number of housing starts that are predicted by the federal government. To forecast the 2006 sales for a certain number of housing starts, they use a regression line for the data. Housing starts are in millions of houses and sales ar in million of dollars. The previous company data forthe past 4 years i a follows: Year [Housing Starts [Sales] x2 2002 1.4 7 wae 444 2003 [1.0 4 \ qth = 2004 [1.6 9 ase apy FF yz aAtbx 2005 [2.0 12 4 2444 7.52 pe 340 33,025,000 _ whatis forecasted i (eili of dollars) for housing starts of 2.5 million? Siti : yo.a~ 4(4s VF) oe Le > ae QE ager 952 - 401s x ngaiaes -1.0 Be o 512.6 )x- 4 -45.26 +44.48(5) sgoatt ag long-range forecast 4d. strategies forecast medium-range forecast ©. allof the above €. short-range forecast Meee te Valve. ven forecast errors of -1, 4, 8, -3 what is the Mean Absolute Deviation @2 b.3 © a8 e. 16 f 5) iis with time horizon of about 3 month ~3 year is typically called: 19, Forecasts Become more accurate with longer time horizons d. all of the above Are rarely accurate ©. none of the above More accurate for individual items than for groups of items 4s ary purpose of the Mean Absolute Deviation is: be Pi 65 . Estimate the trend line st d. seasonally adjust the forecast & Eliminate forecast errors Etat ora |. eallofthe above 2 4475 Measure forecast accuracy q 21. Which of the following would be an advantage when using a sales force composite to develop a demand forecast? ‘a, Sales staff is least affected by the changing customer needs 2. Sales force can easily distinguish between customers Sales staff often is aware of customers’ future plans ‘d._ Sales people least likely to be influenced by recent events fe. Sales people are least likely to be biased by sales quotas 22. Iftwo variables were perfectly correlated, then the correlgijon coefficient (r) would equal ao * b

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