Tush: Name Kulak Frouges Given: A service company wants to locate a new department store using 3 alternative locations. They want to use the Factor-Rating Method to determine the new site based on the maximum value and the following data: ae Exam2B March 8, 2005 ‘There are 25 questions each worth 4 points. Factor Weight Location A Location B Location C Labor 6 9 Sa Tecra od 6 Su Taxes 4 62 4 6 24 3.32 Security 2 2. 4 5 i 6 2 4 1 A, SL Givethe letter and soore of the | Given: The Blue Sail Co. has a choice of two loc: alternative locations are given below: . 10,c0O+ (8¢X) costs [Ne aR wv Fixed $10,000 | $15,000 | $20,000 Variable [$18 $15 S12 1900 LNG: Which alternative location is the lowest total cost at Laetinits? -l 3. X2Iwue Le Trvnen comparing NC just to AR, indicate over what range of number of units (x) Atemative AR isthe lov-cost choice {must be exact calculated numbers and not picked of ofa grid)? mi ‘ res ‘i Am 4 — Whats the Breakeven Point in numberof units (x) for altemative NC? a : ie 2 ef 1O000 + IZ¥ = 15,0004 15 x Mepee + (8(ICbO) * 26,006 ay. = pa5 é Beta te AR g e(iooo)? 21 \UUle Nv 3): 32,000 Given: The Light Truck Co, wants to build a new distribution facility to ship repair parts to three warehouses. The company will use the “Center-of-Gravity Method” to decide where the new distribution facility would be built. The Volume and map coordinates for the three warehouses are shown below: T) # Gooet. 4) + (20027 2000 4 ACHO +40 fee Collection Points | Volume | (X,¥) Coordinates A 30001 (7,2) B 1000 | (4,7) c [2000 2.5) Leeo 5. (4&2, 2 £3 )Whatis the (x,y) coordinate of where the collection center should be located? wGiven: The Blue Company’s:2002, 2003 and 2004 sales demand is listed below. The sales for year 2005 is forecasted to be 2400 units.” 20022003 2004 Month Demand Demand Demand Jan 60 90 113 Feb 0 100 12s Mar 80 110 138 Apr 90 120 150 May 100 130 163 Jun 110 140 175 Jul 130 160 200 Aug 140 170 23 Sep 130 160 200 Oct 120 150 188 / gel 57 90 120 150) Bu / 120.232 + 2.792 | 80 lo 138 Total 1200 1560 1950 | 1510/\> = 130,228 1SZ__ Whatis the seasonal index for the month of November? 7, S12 ___ Whatis the forecasted sales in units for the month of November in year 2005? 200 * 2152 7 S504 = S50 Given: Robert isthe production manager at a company, which manufactures diesel engines. Robert needs a demand forecast for the next year to help decide whether to add new production capacity. The initial forecast for 2004 was 4900 units; the initial estimate of the trend was 80. Alpha =.8 and Beta=.6. The actual sales for year 2004 was 5000 units. Use Exponential Smoothing w/Trend: in 8. S025 Forecast (FIT) for year 2005 Fils Aq : cet aeeat + 64. Foooy GBC SOON) + (25 (2900 4 ED 3 = re = 40 4 Bbw 42d 5 - sat — 6 44au- 4400) + (.4)( 80 S1.b +322 St 2Aven: The JP Holly Co. wants to use a regression line to predict the next month’s sales. They plotted points ‘and found a linear relationship exists, Actual sales demand in (000) for year 2004: 2004 Demand be e2h- UIDs FET Month Month Thousands x y xs@ xy ysQ Jan 1 3 1 3 9 Feb 2 4 4 8 16 Mar 3 6 9 18 36 Apr 4 5 16 20 26 wo (2(4225) May 5 8 2% © 40 a4 Jun 6 9 26 54 et AGE Jul 7 8 486 aT L 10. Aug 8 0 et 8100 aa 7 Sep 9 12 ai 108144 pe Oct 10 " 100 110 wat A= 8.75 1.04 fu.s> Nov 11 14 121 154 196 = 1.49 Dec 12 1 144180225 12 sum 78 105 65031081 y= cit In ie 24 120319 80g ~ aq t oalis> Ss Baye pa aa aeee | 35 Vie use (18)? (ioe 4089) ae as = feed 9, 11SQ © __ Whatis the forecast in units for the sales for March 2005? 10. = _@ 3.77 Whatis the “measure of the variability around the regression line” in units? 11, 4741 whatis the measure of the strength ofthe relationship between x and y variables? yyy + [SEE SSO ROTTER | fiBl = t set * 1000 ie iad Given: The forecast of Joe's Pizza and actual demand for the past six weeks are given below. Also, Joe has determined that most recent demand probably should be weighted with the highest number if he decides to use the Weighted Moving Average. He used weights of 3,2,] giving the latest actual demand the lowest weight. . Fie Fey Cumare | mite TS Week Feast Demand]. 45 40 fo«0 agit 1 3 450 © 110 I eee eee oat E qo & |: o> 22 10 © 0 | | 3 150 90 foro | an Bie tip | POM ta» -2.284 12. 2S\_ What is the tracking signal at the end of week 3? 13.__{2D __ Using the Moving Average Method, what is the forecast for week 4 (n=3)? 14. 121-1 Using the Weighted Moving Average, what is the forecast for week 4 (n=3)? Ino, + UGE vot 120 41D wl . Hut udGiven: The MBC Petfood Company has 4 stores in West Virginia. The company wants to forecast the yearly sales for a location of town population using a regression line for the data. Population of the towns are in thousands of people and sales are in millions of dollars. 2 yt Store | Town Populationy] Salesy 2 H. - i 15 i \9> ae i a 2 20. (a A. += $3 ee ee - tai |e 4 UW 4 a4 =. ' 4A, 000 Tom 2570 UtSHe| 110 *10 159,205, 262 7What is forecasted sales (millions of dollars) for store located in town of 20,000 persons? b - EO. gis.ssa 1471500600 2 SKIOMH GiB. S5TINZES: 7 4,4, 04775 + 213.559 (20,08 =$1Z05z2e2-2S Gane = -44UU OAT. 1S 16. Forecasts used for sales planning, production planning, and budgeting, cash budgeting, and analyzing various operation plans typically utilize a long-range horizon 4d, naive method, because there is no data history medium-range horizon . all ofthe above CD short-range horizon 17. The forecasting technique that pools the opinionsgfa group of experts is known as? ‘a, sales force composition model {jury of executive opinion model b. >the Delphi method %. executive opinions consumer market survey model 18. Which of the following is true regarding the tow smoothing constants of the Forecast Including Trend FIT) Model. S ‘They are called alpha and bets, Producer's Risk and Consumer's Risk SSK Their values are determined independently c. Alpha is always smaller than Beta d. All oftthe above are true €. None of the above are true 19. The primary purpose of the mean absolute deviation (MAD) in forecasting i to: Estimate trend lines b) Eliminate forecast errors Na Measure forecast error 4 seasonally adjust the forecast 2. all of the above20, The fundamental difference between seasonality and cycles is The duration of the repeating patterns 4d. Allofthe above ‘The magnitude of the variation e. None of the above ©. The ability to attribute that pattern to a cause 21. Forecasts: 2. Become more accurate with longer time horizons b. Are more accurate for individual items than for groups of items aac rarely perfect, (CLD ali of the above =e.” None of the above 22. Which of the following would be an advantage when using a sales force composite to develop a demand forecast? The sales staff is least affected by changing customer needs The sales force can easily distinguish between customer desires and probable actions The sales staff is often aware of customers’ future plans Salespeople are least likely to be influenced by recent events [ES Salespeople are least likely to be biased by sales quotas 23. The degree or strength ofa linear relationship is shown by the? Alpha d. mean absolute deviation (Seorelstioncootisient e. RSFE aa 24, Intangible costs include which of the following? a. Quality of education Ga) Allof the above b. Availabilty of public transportation ©. None of the above ©. Quality of prospective employees 25. The crossover chart for location break-even analysis shows where? a. Fixed costs are equal for alternative locations b. Variable costs are equal for alternative locations Total costs are equal for alternative locations Fixed costs equal variable costs €. None ofthe above 26. The center-of-gravity method is used primarily to determine what type of locations? a. Service locations d. Supplier locations b. Manufacturing locations e. Telemarketing locations Distribution center locations 27._\0O Given an actual demand of 103, a previous forecast value of 97, and an alpha of 4, the exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be, Fre 47+ 4(102-977 = 47424-4994NA skeptical manager asks what short-range forecasts can be used for. Give two possible uses/purposes Sales planning net ne budaeti ng, 29. Explain what is meant by the location strategy “Location is by Proximity to Markets”. Tr rears how close (2 14 to the marke L€. populatim of area, muraber of potential custom sis Explain what an economic forecast is \ A forcrast bated array ol a econermc princitles kee fu pe 4 detecucd cu pely + dere 31. Explain the difference between Qualitative and Quantitative Forecasting methods Qualiotive fs bacieatly epirian ceerted, Tre forecast oorma Srv GOP mee ot Quarttadtie t2 renre based or proto aaa. T+ jsoriented around mirabe 32-33 List the seven steps to do a forecast: ‘Deere use for & 2 Select itera to we tri relent Lererrnine tree: heteor 4 Seleet mmicl S wel biqatie fore cesy TPryatidate ¥ interpret ents Bonus] Explain term location by “clustering” xy loon be Array near your corrpett free, (oe Tre ost