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3. What would the average have to be to ensure a 95% chance of completing the
project in 70 workdays?
In order to get to 70 days and also up the chance of increasing the percentage the
schedule will have to be compressed.
Z = (TS TE) / Sq. root of sum of variance
1.7 = (70 TE) / Sq. root of 33 = 60.31
Thus, compressing the schedule to 61 days will increase the chance of meeting the 95%
but it will also probably increase the risk level which will inherently reduce the chance of
meeting the 95%.
Z = (70 - 61) / 6 = +9 / 6 = +1.5
From Table A7.2 in the text we see that P = .93
References
Larson, E. W. & Gray, C. F. (2014). Project management: The managerial process (6th ed.). New
York, NY: McGraw-Hill.