FED SURVEY

September 16, 2015

These survey results represent the opinions of 51 of the nations top money managers, investment
strategists, and professional economists.
They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were collected
on September 10-14, 2015. Participants were not required to answer every question.
Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those who
did accept our invitation.

1. Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds rate at its
September meeting?
Aug 25

Sep 16

60%

50%

49%

49%

47%
43%

40%

30%

20%

8%

10%

5%
0%

Yes

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 1 of 27

No

Don't know/unsure

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
2. Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds rate in 2015?
Yes

No

Don't know/unsure

100%

92%
90%

84%

82%

80%

80%

70%

67%
60%

50%

40%

30%

23%
20%

15%
11%

10%

0%

10%
5%

10%

Aug 25

Sep 16

5%
Apr 28

Jun 16

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 2 of 27

9%
Jul 28

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
3. If the Fed does not hike this year, which two factors from the
following list do you believe will most likely be the reason?
Jun 16

Aug 25
0%

Sep 16

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

32%
Weak overseas growth

57%

61%

59%
Declining inflation

60%

55%

12%
Concern over market reaction to a hike

29%

31%

47%
Weak US economic growth

24%

16%

32%
Weak payroll growth

7%

10%

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

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FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
4. What is your measure of full employment in the U.S.?
6.0%

5.5%

Survey average

5.0%

4.80%

4.80%

Apr 28

Jun 16

4.70%

4.72%

Jul 28

Sep 16

4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

3.0%
Survey dates

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 4 of 27

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
5. How serious a concern is China for the US economy?

1=Not seriou s at all1=Not serious at all

0%

Aug 25
10%

5%

20%

0%
0%

7%

16%
21%
20%

16%

10%

12%

16%

6%

0%
0%

10

0%
0%

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 5 of 27

18%

12%
12%

10=Highest level of seriousness

Sep 16
15%

18%

16%

Averages:
Aug 25: 5.1
Sep 16: 4.6

25%

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
6. Is the Fed paying too much attention to extreme market
swings in setting the appropriate monetary policy?
60%

49%

50%

43%
40%

30%

20%

8%

10%

0%
Yes

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 6 of 27

No

Don't know/unsure

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
7. What best describes your view of communication from Fed
chair Janet Yellen and from Fed governors and presidents of
their views on monetary policy?
Yellen

Fed Govs/Presidents

70%

64%
60%

50%

50%

40%

34%
28%

30%

20%

8%

10%

8%
4%

4%

0%
Talk too much

Don't talk enough

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 7 of 27

Talk the right

amount

Don't know/unsure

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
8. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will be on ?
December 31, 2015

December 31, 2016

2,350

2311

2296

2293

2,300

2259

2254

2,250

2247
2194 2187

2,200

2156 2159

2149
2,150

2159

2,100

2,050

2111

2128

2135

2075

2032
2,000

1,950

1,900
Jul 29 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16 Jan 27 Mar 17 Apr 282 Jun 16 Jul 28 Sept 16
'15
Survey Dates

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Page 8 of 27

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
9. What do you expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
will be on ?
December 31, 2015

December 31, 2016

4.0%

3.52%
3.5%
3.43% 3.45%

3.24%
3.14%

3.17%

3.19%
3.0%

3.04%
2.96%
2.89%

2.88%
2.64%

2.57%
2.62%

2.5%

2.54%
2.33%

2.40%

2.0%
Jul 29 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16 Jan 27 Mar 17 April 28 Jul 16
'15
Survey Dates

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 9 of 27

Jul 28 Sept 16

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
10.
What is your forecast for the year-over-year percentage
change in real U.S. GDP for ?
2015

2016

3.4%

3.2%
+3.02% +3.00%

+3.02%

3.0%

+2.99%

+2.90% +2.90%

+2.90%

+2.88%

2.8%

+2.84%

+2.81%

+2.80%

+2.81%

+2.75%

+2.78%

+2.69% +2.70%

+2.70%

2.6%

+2.64%

+2.41% +2.43%

2.4%

2.2%

2.0%

+2.25%

Jan
28,
'14

Mar
18

Apr
28

Jun 4

Jul 29

Sep
16

Oct
28

Dec
16

Jan
27,
'15

Mar
17

April
28

Jun
16

Jul 28

Sept
16

2015 +2.90 +3.02 +3.00 +2.81 +2.75 +2.90 +2.90 +3.02 +2.99 +2.69 +2.70 +2.25 +2.41 +2.43
2016

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 10 of 27

+2.88 +2.80 +2.84 +2.81 +2.78 +2.70 +2.64

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
11.
What is your forecast for the year-over-year percentage
change in the headline U.S. CPI for ?
2015

2016

2.5%

2.29% 2.27%

2.29%
2.17%

2.17%
2.08%

2.0%

2.01%

2.07%

2.02%

1.96%

1.89%
1.74%

1.5%

1.17%

1.10%

1.17%
1.0%

1.01% 1.00%
0.83%

0.5%

Jun 4 Jul 29 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16 Jan 27, Mar 17 April Jun 16 Jul 28
'15
28
Survey Dates

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 11 of 27

Sept
16

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
12.
When do you expect the Fed to hike the fed funds rate
and allow its balance sheet to decline?

Survey Date

Fed Funds Hike

Average Forecast

Balance Sheet
Average Forecast

April 28, 2014 survey

July 2015

October 2015

June 4 survey

August 2015

March 2016

July 29 survey

August 2015

December 2015

August 20 survey

July 2015

Not asked

September 16 survey

June 2015

December 2015

October 28 survey

July 2015

January 2016

December 16 survey

July 2015

February 2016

Jan. 27, 2015 survey

September 2015

April 2016

March 17 survey

August 2015

April 2016

April 28 survey

October 2015

May 2016

June 16 survey

October 2015

July 2016

July 28 survey

November 2015

June 2016

August 25 survey

January 2016

September 2016

September 16 survey

November 2015

August 2016

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

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FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
13.
How would you characterize the Fed's current monetary
policy?
Too accommodative

Just right

Too restrictive

Don't know/unsure

70%

60%

60%

Too accomodative
54%
49%

50%
43%

49%

49%

50%

50%

50%
44%

47%

46%

43%

40%

49%

43%

54%

47%

44%
39%
35%
32%

30%

32%

Just right

28%
20%

17%
Don't know/unsure

10%

13%
6%

6%

5%

3%
3%

0%

10%

8%

3%

6%
6%

3%

3%

6%

3%
5%
Too restrictive

3%
3%

6%
0%

4%

Jul 31, Jul 29, Aug 20 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16 Jan 27, Mar 17 Apr 28 Jun 16 Jul 28 Sept 16
'12
'14
'15

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 13 of 27

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
14.
Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will be on
?
2.5%

2.13%

2.04%

1.99%

2.0%

1.93%
1.84%

Dec 2016

1.75%

1.56%

1.5%
1.41%

1.46%

1.17%
1.05%

1.0%

0.99%

0.97%
0.92%

1.12%

0.98%
0.89%
0.83%

0.82%
0.89%

0.73%

0.83%
0.70% 0.72%

0.71%

Dec 2015

0.68%

0.54%
0.53%

0.5%

0.47%

0.37%
0.37%

0.0%
Jul 30

Sep
17

Oct
29

Dec
17

Jan
28
'14

Mar
18

Apr
28

Jun 4 Jul 29

Aug
20

Sep
16

Oct
28

Dec
16

Jan
27,
'15

Mar
17

April
28

Jun
16

Jul 28

Aug
25

Sept
16

Dec 31, 2015 0.97% 0.92% 0.82% 0.70% 0.72% 0.83% 0.99% 0.68% 1.05% 0.89% 0.98% 0.89% 0.83% 0.73% 0.71% 0.54% 0.53% 0.47% 0.37% 0.37%
Dec 31, 2016

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 14 of 27

1.99% 2.13% 2.04% 1.93% 1.75% 1.84% 1.46% 1.56% 1.41% 1.12% 1.17%

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
15.
At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminal rate?
4.0%

3.5%
3.30%

3.20%
3.16%

3.17%
3.11%
3.04%

3.06%
2.98%

3.0%

2.79%

2.85%

2.69%
2.5%

2.0%
Aug
20

Sep Oct 28 Dec

16
16

Jan
Mar
Apr
27,
17
28
'15
Survey Dates

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 15 of 27

Jun
16

Jul 28 Aug
25

Sept
16

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
16.
When do you believe fed funds will reach its terminal
rate?
Survey Date

Forecast

August 20 survey

Q4 2017

September 16 survey

Q3 2017

October 28 survey

Q4 2017

December 16 survey

Q1 2018

Jan. 27, 2015 survey

Q1 2018

March 17 survey

Q4 2017

April 28 survey

Q1 2018

June 16 survey

Q1 2018

July 28 survey

Q2 2018

August 25 survey

Q3 2018

September 16 survey

Q1 2018

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 16 of 27

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
17.
Has the U.S. stock market already discounted a fed funds
rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year?
Yes

No

Don't know/unsure

70%

61%

Yes

60%
56%

53%

55%

53%
50%

56%

50%

50%
47%

47%

40%
36%

39%

38%

38%

No

30%

38%
36%

20%

Don't know/unsure
10%

8%

12%
10%

9%

6%

3%
0%

0%

0%
Dec 16

Jan 27

Mar 17

Apr 28
Jun 16
Survey dates

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 17 of 27

Jul 28

Aug 25

Sep 16

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
Has the U.S. bond market already discounted a fed funds rate
hike by the Federal Reserve this year?
Yes

No

Don't know/unsure

80%

70%

67%

Yes

62%
60%

60%

56%
52%

50%

40%

43%

42%

40%
33%

30%

No

35%

20%

Don't know/unsure
10%
3%

3%

5%

0%

0%

0%
Apr 28

Jun 16

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 18 of 27

Jul 28
Survey dates

Aug 25

Sep 16

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
18.
What is the single biggest threat facing the U.S. economic
recovery?
0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

European recession/financial crisis

Tax/regulatory policies
Slow job growth
Inflation
Deflation
Debt ceiling
Rise in interest rates
Geopolitical risks
Global economic weakness
Slow wage growth
Other
Don't know/unsure
Global
Rise in
Slow wage
Geopolitic
economic
interest
growth
al risks
weakness
rates

European
Tax/regula
recession/
tory
financial
policies
crisis
31%
20%

Don't
know/uns
ure

Other

Apr 30

0%

11%

2%

2%

0%

20%

Jun 18

0%

13%

0%

3%

3%

20%

28%

15%

Jul 30

4%

14%

10%

2%

2%

0%

22%

30%

8%

Sep 17

2%

7%

18%

4%

0%

2%

22%

27%

4%

Oct 29

0%

13%

8%

3%

3%

3%

24%

29%

8%

Dec 17

2%

2%

15%

2%

0%

2%

29%

32%

5%

Jan 28 '14

0%

21%

12%

0%

0%

2%

30%

21%

7%

Mar 18

0%

18%

5%

0%

5%

3%

26%

23%

10%

Apr 28

0%

13%

18%

8%

0%

5%

3%

21%

26%

3%

Jul 29

3%

12%

12%

12%

0%

3%

6%

12%

29%

12%

Sep 16

3%

11%

11%

6%

0%

3%

6%

29%

26%

6%

Oct 28

3%

8%

8%

10%

0%

3%

3%

15%

18%

31%

Dec 16

0%

3%

14%

3%

0%

6%

3%

14%

14%

40%

Jan 27 '15

0%

16%

6%

41%

16%

6%

0%

0%

0%

9%

13%

0%

Mar 17

0%

14%

17%

28%

8%

6%

0%

6%

3%

0%

14%

6%

April 28

3%

19%

8%

28%

11%

6%

0%

0%

3%

8%

11%

3%

Jun 16

0%

11%

6%

22%

25%

14%

0%

0%

0%

3%

17%

3%

Jul 28

0%

9%

9%

29%

6%

12%

0%

0%

0%

9%

21%

6%

Sept 16

2%

14%

8%

45%

8%

0%

0%

4%

0%

2%

16%

0%

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 19 of 27

Debt
ceiling

Deflation Inflation

Slow job
growth

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
19.
In the next 12 months, what percent probability do
you place
on SURVEY
the U.S. entering recession? (0%=No
FED
chance of
recession,
100%=Certainty of recession)
April
30,
40%
36.1%

35%
34.0%

30%

28.5%

25.9%

25%

26.0%

25.5%

20%

20.3%

20.6%

20.4%

18.4%

18.2%

17.6%

15%

18.6%

17.3%

19.1%

16.9%

17.4%

15.1%

16.9%
16.2%
15.2%

16.4%

16.2%

15.3%

14.6%

15.1%

15.0%

14.7%
13.6%
13.0%

10%

5%

0%

Aug
Jan
Sep Oct
Mar Apr
11,
23,
19 31
16 24
'11
'12

Jan
Jul Sep Dec
Mar Apr Jun
29,
31 12 11
19 30 18
'13

Jan
Jul Sep Oct Dec
Mar Apr
28
30
6
29 17
18 28
'14

Jan
Jul Sep Oct Dec
Mar April Jun
27
29 16 28 16
17 28 16
'15

Jul Sept
28 16

Series1 34.0 36.1 25.5 20.3 19.1 20.6 25.9 26.0 28.5 20.4 17.6 18.2 15.2 16.2 16.9 18.4 17.3 15.3 16.9 14.6 16.2 15.0 15.1 13.6 13.0 16.4 14.7 15.1 17.4 18.6

Survey Dates

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

Page 20 of 27

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
20.

What is your primary area of interest?

FED SURVEY
April
Currencies
0%

30,

Other
15%

Fixed
Income
11%
Equities
21%

Economics
53%

Comments:
Marshall Acuff, Silvercrest Asset Management: Global markets
need an affirmation of US growth. If the Fed raises rates in
September, stock markets will rise because the Fed has provided
that affirmation of US growth. Failure to raise rates might be
construed that the Fed is concerned about US growth. Markets would
fall because of the perception that global growth may be at greater
risk.
Dean Baker, Center for Economic and Policy Research: Given
weak wage growth and well below target inflation, it is difficult to see
why the Fed would raise rates this fall.
Jim Bianco, Bianco Research: The "data dependent" Fed has all it
needs to hike rates. If they do not, it is because of "financial
stability" concerns. If they do hike, they are announcing the stock
market's volatility does not matter. Either way, September 17s
CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015
Page 21 of 27

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
decision will send a powerful message.

FED
SURVEY
Robert Brusca,
Fact
and Opinion Economics: The Fed has a
April
problem. A zero
rate30,
is no longer helping the economy much. And
the Fed is nervous that it has been too accommodative for too long.
But its policy statement is a rate hike killer. Inflation is NOT on a
path to 2% in this galaxy (earth to Fed...). If the Fed REALLY wants
to hike rates it needs to change its policy statement or it could have
its rate-hiking hands tied for a long time. The international scene is
going to keep inflation low. Meanwhile, US growth is only OK. You
have to buy into the U3 definition of unemployment to think there is
any inflation risk. I don't. The US remains under disinflation pressure
and will for some time. There is no appreciation of that in policy
circles. The Fed is haunted by past mistakes, keeping it from dealing
with current events.
Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research: If the US economy
operated in a vacuum, the odds of a rate hike in September would
easily clear 50%. The labor market continues to pressure the FOMC
in the direction of a hike. If the Fed decides to pass on September,
the delay will be only temporary. A rate hike this year remains
extremely likely.
Mike Englund, Action Economics: The combination of a small hike
in the Fed funds rate target with hand signals of a "one and done"
strategy for 2015 would likely raise rather than lower equity prices,
and would finally put an end to the market's fanatical focus on rate
"lift off" timing. There are no adverse economic consequences of
funds rate increases from zero to the 2% area if the climb is gradual,
i.e. starts early, and a lifting of short rates above the zero-bound
would allow more healthy activity at the short end of the debt
market.
Kevin Giddis, Raymond James/Morgan Keegan: The Fed's
message to the markets could be the single most important event of
CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015
Page 22 of 27

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
the year. If they raise rates, clearly state why they did, if they don't,
ditto. If there is confusion, it currently lies at the feet of the Fed.

FED SURVEY

AprilPNC
30, Financial Services Group: It is time for the
Stuart Hoffman,
FOMC to start bringing monetary policy slowly out of its "self-induced
coma" in response to much improved vital signs for the US economy.
After perhaps an initial stock market sell-off to a funds rate hike, the
stock market will rally back in response to the positive implications
for the US economy and corporate profits.
Art Hogan, Wunderlich Securities: The Fed may well do the right
(raise rates in Sept) thing at the wrong time and still not move
markets much as we have been pricing this move in for a while.
Constance Hunter, KPMG LLP: The Fed should raise in September
as the economy is strong enough to withstand a normal low-rate
environment. In addition to a large balance sheet the Fed also needs
to consider lags between policy action and the impact on the real
economy. #MindTheLag
Hugh Johnson, Hugh Johnson Advisors: The most important
question that faces all investors is, "Does the recent/current decline
in equity prices signal the end of a bull market and start of a bear
market or a correction in an ongoing bull market?" Based upon the
performance of important monetary and economic variables the
answer would appear to be the latter. Whether the Federal Reserve
raises interest rates in September, October, or December will not
change that forecast. A change in policy has been fully discounted by
the financial markets. Whether or not the Chinese economy slows
MAY affect that forecast depending on (a) the extent of the
slowdown and (b) the degree to which the slowdown gets
transmitted through declining commodity prices and world trade. We
cannot quantify outcomes for this with any level of confidence, but I
suspect that the slowdown in China will be minimal. Hence...only a
correction, but my fingers are crossed.
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Page 23 of 27

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
John Kattar, Ardent Asset Advisors: Some will ask how the
FED and
SURVEY
subdued economic
inflation backdrop justifies a Fed hike. A
April
30, emergency justifies a continuation of ZIRP,
better question
is: what
a policy that had never existed before the financial crisis. A Fed hike
has been well discounted - the only question is when. The Fed
should begin the process of normalization, while the effects on the
economy and markets are likely to be minimal.
David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors: This is a long drum roll. It is
time to take the shot and get away from zero.
Subodh Kumar, Subodh Kumar & Associates: Markets are likely
changing drivers and hence the global volatility expansion. Markets
were hooked up to steady state expectations but that is not the
reality. Driven by momentum, markets focused on weakness as
residing in Europe, which was obvious. As well as weakness for Latin
America, the newer change has been in growth competition within
Asia, including intercountry exchange rates, with the pullback in
Renminbi/US dollar levels not a singular catalyst. Domestic
challenges also loom in the western hemisphere after holidays and
Labor Day in North America, this time amid electioneering.
Geopolitical challenges remain. Classically, capital markets do go
from the basics to exotics and then back again, which appears to be
reoccurring. Amid the ballyhoo over share buybacks and M&A that is
classical late in a cycle, the reality is that the delivery of operating
improvement takes longer, if it comes at all. Pending clarity for
2017, we envision a trading equity channel with recent highs at the
upper end and the bottom moderately below recent correction levels.
Rotation turn would be indicated from the financial sector in equities,
from commodities and not least from currency stabilization. It is time
for the investment and corporate focus to be on the basics.
Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott: A Fed rate hike at the
September meeting is basically a coin flip. We're calling for a splitCNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015
Page 24 of 27

FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
the-baby outcome in which policymakers hike 10 15 bps. This
achieves several aims. One, it ends the liftoff timing debate. Two, it
refocuses the FED
dialogSURVEY
on the pace, not initial timing, of rate hikes.
April
30,
Three, it doesn't
risk
"shocking" risk asset markets.
John Lonski, Moody's: The now simultaneous price deflation
afflicting many of the USs exports and imports may help to (i)
prevent the annual growth rate of core business sales from rising
much above 2% and (ii) keep core PCE price index inflation under
1.6%.
Drew Matus, UBS Investment Research: Zero rates impede
economic growth in the US and are a source of imbalance in the
world given the outlook.
Rob Morgan, Sethi Financial Group: The Fed will hike in 2015,
just not at the September meeting.
Joel Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors: Given all the Fed Fatigue
we are already suffering, the failure of the FOMC to hike rates in
September, which would raise the possibility of no move for three
more months, would amount to cruel and unusual punishment.
James Paulsen, Wells Capital Management: The fact that the
financial markets have stabilized somewhat without any overt
assurance from the Fed that they will postpone a rate hike until the
financial markets are more stable probably gives the Fed confidence
that the markets will be able to handle a rate hike next week.
Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene University: The Fed should
not focus on market moves unless they undermine the health of the
overall financial system. A rate hike might well drive stock prices
briefly downward, but the decline would probably be followed by a
rebound as investors see attractive prices in a growing US economy.
Ironically, a September rate hike might subdue much of the recent
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FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
volatility that has been based on a "will they or won't they" debate.

FED
SURVEY
Chris Rupkey,
Bank
of Tokyo-Mitsubishi: If they don't start
30,Wall Street is going down the tubes.
raising rates, April
FICC on
John Ryding, RDQ Economics: There is no justification based on
the Fed's data dependency for keeping interest rates at zero. The
economy is virtually at full employment and the low inflation
readings are a result of a positive supply-side shock that will have
only a transitory impact on holding inflation down. The longer the
Fed postpones the inevitable monetary renormalization of monetary
policy, the greater the risks to financial stability
Allen Sinai, Decision Economics: It is time for the Fed to get on
with it.
Hank Smith, Haverford Investments: The Fed's job would be
much easier with better fiscal policy (tax reform and regulatory
relief) and that is even truer in the euro zone.
Richard Steinberg, Steinberg Global Asset Management: Let's
just get this 0.25% bump in fed funds over with so we can move on.
Like a kid in the car, "Are we there yet?"
Diane Swonk, Mesirow Financial: History won't be determined by
liftoff, but the trajectory of rates thereafter, which includes
communications. If a mistake is to be made, it will be made in the
next six months.
Mark Vitner, Wells Fargo: We are looking for the Fed to raise the
federal funds rate a quarter percentage point and reduce forward
guidance -- a tightening and an ease. We feel fairly certain about
the latter but are less sure on the former. They may have boxed
themselves in. Reducing guidance in September would likely make it
tougher to raise rates later this year. Either way, we should get
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FED SURVEY
September 16, 2015
some answers (that matter) on Thursday.
Scott Wren, FED
WellsSURVEY
Fargo Investment Institute: The Fed, in a
April
way, has its back
to30,
the wall. All year long Chairwoman Yellen has
been telling the markets this is the year to start down the road to
"normalization" (in Fed-speak of course). For the sake of credibility,
we think one hike is in the cards this year, likely in December.
Saying that, however, we believe the Fed doesn't need to do
anything this year based on the economic growth we expect and the
inflation we expect looking into next year. The Fed is in a tough spot
to be sure.

CNBC Fed Survey September 16, 2015

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