Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,218 BC residents by Smart IVR on

September 15, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones.
Margin of error: +/- 2.08%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by
geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

CLOSE RACES ABOUND IN BRITISH COLUMBIA

September 17, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds close races in British Columbia
with multiple parties leading multiple regions. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/2.08%, 19 times out of 20.
British Columbia volatility continues to surprise many observers and this poll will no doubt shock many as
the Conservative Party has now surged ahead, surpassing the NDP who had previously held a substantial
lead, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. Liberals have maintained their share and these
numbers seem to indicate very many tight races, and a large number of three way races throughout BC.
This poll has good news and bad news for all the parties. In the Islands, the NDP leads with 28% of all
voters, followed by the Conservatives with 23% and the Liberals and Greens tied at 16% support. In Greater
Vancouver, the Liberal party leads with 28% ahead of the Conservatives (27%) and the NDP (23%) with the
Green Party at just 6%. The Conservatives hold a substantial lead in the rest of BC with 35% over the NDP
(26%) and the Liberals (15%) with Green support at 8%.
53% of BC residents believe that the Kinder Morgan pipeline will be built, regardless of whether they
approve or not. Approval is divided with 46% approving vs. 43% disapproving of the project, including 24%
who strongly approve and 28% who strongly disapprove.
The Northern Gateway Pipeline project has the approval of 45% of BC resident and evenly 45% oppose
the project. Included in those is a greater strong disapproval number at 32% versus just 25% strong
approval. Again, a larger number of people believe the project will go forward, regardless of their personal
opinion (44%) than not (28%).
Despite the sluggish economy, a majority of BC residents feel optimistic about the coming year when
asked about their finances, 55% are optimistic and just 22% are pessimistic. If the recession and slow
growth continues, these numbers may begin to change as we have seen in Alberta over the course of 2015.
Fewer BC residents are optimistic about the finances of the province however, at just 44% versus 30% who
are pessimistic about the next 12 months. This pattern is consistent with what we have seen in other
provinces, with personal optimism out pacing public optimism.
Regional margins of error:
Vancouver Island: +/- 3.54%; Greater Vancouver: +/- 3.59%; Rest of BC: +/- 3.63% (19 times out of 20)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion,
having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate
pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.
-30Available for Interview From Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

And if the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?
[LEANING & DECIDED ONLY]
10%

33%

26%

31%
Conservative

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN

NDP

Liberal

18-34
35%
33%
24%
9%

Green

35-49
29%
28%
31%
13%

VAN. ISLAND
26%
34%
20%
21%

Undecided

50-64 65+
32% 40%
32%
31%
27% 20%
9%
9%

Male Female
36%
31%
28%
33%
25%
27%
11%
9%

GREATER VAN. REST OF BC

32%
40%
29%
33%
32%
17%
7%
10%

A4

And if the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?
[ALL VOTERS]
16%
29%

8%

22%
25%

Conservative

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

NDP

Liberal

18-34
27%
23%
19%
7%
23%
320

Green

35-49
25%
24%
26%
11%
13%
508

VAN. ISLAND
23%
28%
16%
16%
16%
766

Undecided

50-64
28%
25%
23%
7%
16%
624

65+
37%
28%
18%
8%
10%
766

Male Female
31%
27%
22%
27%
21%
22%
9%
7%
16%
16%
1001
1217

GREATER VAN. REST OF BC

27%
35%
23%
26%
28%
15%
6%
8%
16%
16%
736
716

A5

Rest of BC

Greater Van

Van. Island

And if the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?

10
Conservative

15
NDP

20
Liberal

25
Green

30
Undecided

35

A6

And which party are you leaning towards voting for? (Undecided Only)

14%

46%
22%

13%
6%

Conservative

NDP

Liberal

Green

Dont Know

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
DONT KNOW

18-34
21%
26%
10%
4%
40%

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
DONT KNOW

VAN. ISLAND GREATER VAN. REST OF BC

5%
18%
10%
12%
23%
28%
11%
17%
7%
15%
2%
7%
57%
40%
49%

35-49
14%
17%
24%
8%
38%

50-64
5%
22%
9%
8%
57%

65+
10%
19%
14%
6%
51%

Male Female
16%
12%
22%
22%
9%
16%
5%
7%
49%
43%

A7

Which federal leader do you trust most to manage the Canadian economy?
10%

8%
33%

24%

25%
Harper

STEPHEN HARPER
TOM MULCAIR
JUSTIN TRUDEAU
ELIZABETH MAY
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STEPHEN HARPER
TOM MULCAIR
JUSTIN TRUDEAU
ELIZABETH MAY
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Mulcair

Trudeau

18-34
30%
30%
24%
8%
9%
320

May

35-49
31%
20%
28%
12%
9%
508

VAN. ISLAND
24%
27%
21%
16%
12%
766

Not Sure

50-64
32%
26%
25%
6%
11%
624

65+
41%
26%
19%
5%
9%
766

Male Female
35%
30%
23%
28%
24%
24%
8%
8%
9%
10%
1001
1217

GREATER VAN. REST OF BC

33%
38%
24%
27%
29%
17%
6%
6%
8%
11%
736
716

A8

And do you approve or disapprove of the proposed Kinder Morgan Pipeline?

11%
24%

28%

22%

15%

Approve
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Disapprove
18-34
27%
14%
12%
39%
8%
320

Not Sure
35-49
15%
29%
15%
26%
14%
508

VAN. ISLAND
18%
20%
17%
36%
11%
766

50-64
25%
23%
15%
25%
12%
624

65+ Male Female

30% 28%
20%
23% 22%
22%
17% 13%
16%
20% 26% 30%
11%
11%
12%
766 1001
1217

GREATER VAN. REST OF BC

21%
32%
24%
21%
14%
14%
29%
22%
11%
12%
736
716

A9

Regardless of your approval or disapproval, do you think the Kinder Morgan

Pipeline will be built?

29%

53%

18%

Yes
YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

No

Not Sure
18-34
66%
16%
18%
320

35-49
52%
18%
31%
508

VAN. ISLAND
41%
26%
33%
766

50-64
47%
20%
33%
624

65+ Male Female

43% 55%
51%
20% 19%
17%
37% 26%
32%
766 1001
1217

GREATER VAN. REST OF BC

54%
57%
17%
17%
29%
26%
736
716

A10

And do you approve or disapprove of the Northern Gateway Pipeline?

9%
25%

32%

20%

13%

Approve
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Disapprove
18-34
29%
16%
11%
39%
5%
320

Not Sure
35-49
18%
22%
14%
35%
11%
508

VAN. ISLAND
18%
20%
14%
39%
9%
766

50-64
26%
21%
14%
31%
9%
624

65+
29%
22%
16%
22%
11%
766

Male Female
30% 20%
19%
21%
13%
13%
30%
35%
7%
11%
1001
1217

GREATER VAN. REST OF BC

23%
33%
21%
19%
14%
11%
33%
28%
9%
9%
736
716

A11

Regardless of your approval or disapproval, do you think the Northern Gateway

Pipeline will be built?

29%

44%

28%

Yes

YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

No

Not Sure
18-34
56%
29%
15%
320

35-49
44%
27%
29%
508

VAN. ISLAND
34%
37%
29%
766

50-64
38%
29%
33%
624

65+
35%
24%
41%
766

Male Female
46%
41%
31%
25%
23%
34%
1001
1217

GREATER VAN. REST OF BC

45%
48%
25%
27%
30%
25%
736
716

A12

Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or
pessimistic about your own familys financial situation?

23%

55%

22%

Optimistic

OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Pessimistic
18-34
55%
29%
16%
320

Not Sure
35-49
57%
18%
25%
508

VAN. ISLAND
52%
26%
22%
766

50-64
52%
22%
26%
624

65+
56%
16%
28%
766

Male Female
54%
55%
21%
23%
25%
22%
1001
1217

GREATER VAN. REST OF BC

53%
58%
23%
18%
24%
24%
736
716

A13

Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or
pessimistic about the state of the British Columbia economy?

25%

44%

30%

Optimistic

Pessimistic

Not Sure

OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34
42%
31%
27%
320

OPTIMISTIC
PESSIMISTIC
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

VAN. ISLAND GREATER VAN. REST OF BC

38%
46%
46%
37%
28%
30%
25%
27%
24%
766
736
716

35-49
48%
33%
19%
508

50-64
43%
30%
27%
624

65+ Male Female

44% 44% 45%
26% 29%
31%
30% 27%
24%
766 1001
1217

A14

SCRIPT

And if the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?
Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
NDP led by Thomas Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for?
Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
NDP led by Thomas Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Dont Know
Which federal leader do you trust most to manage the Canadian economy?
Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
NDP led by Thomas Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Not Sure
And do you approve or disapprove of the proposed Kinder Morgan Pipeline?
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure
Regardless of your approval or disapproval,
do you think the Kinder Morgan Pipeline will be built?
Yes
No
Not Sure

A15

SCRIPT (CONT)

And do you approve or disapprove of the Northern Gateway Pipeline?

Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure
Regardless of your approval or disapproval, d
o you think the Northern Gateway Pipeline will be built?
Yes
No
Not Sure
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic
or pessimistic about your own familys financial situation?
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Not sure
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic
or pessimistic about the state of the British Columbia economy?
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Not sure

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all
three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator
on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority
Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.
Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral
election.

2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved