INDONESIAN COAL MINING OUTLOOK

Presented at the IEA workshop COAL MARKETS OUTLOOK , 14 April 2011

ORIENTAL BAY INTERNATIONAL HOTEL, BEIJING, P.R. CHINA

BY : BOB KAMANDANU
CHAIRMAN OF INDONESIAN COAL MINING ASSOCIATION (ICMA)

INDONESIAN COAL MAP RESOURCES AND RESERVES

51.92 b.t
52.53 b.t

SUMATRA

9.90 b.t
0.23 b.t

11.23 b.t

0.002 b.t

0.15 b.t

0.01 b.t
Resources : 104,842 b. t
Lignite
: 20 %
Subituminous
: 66 %
Bituminous
: 14 %

b.t : billion tons

Reserves : 21,13 b. t
Lignite
Subituminous
Bituminous

: 29 %
: 60 %
: 11 %

Source:
Geological
Agency, 2010,Agency,2009
and other sources
Source: Badan
Geology/Geological
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DISTRIBUTION OF INDONESIAN COAL RESOURCES

REPORTED IN 2007

SULAWESI

8%

KALIMANTAN

SUMATRA

1%

MALUKU
PAPUA

32%
10%

48%

BALI

JAVA

Distribution of Coal Resources Potential

Source : Indonesian Coal Book,2008/2009, ICMA, July 2008

INDONESIAN COAL RESOURCE STATUS - 2009

By Calorific Value ( adb )
69,550.65 M ton
( 66.39 % )

Low < 5100

70,000.00

Medium ( 5100 - 6100 )

60,000.00

High ( 6100 - 7100 )

50,000.00
40,000.00
30,000.00

Very high > 7100

21,183.05 M ton
( 20.22 % )

13,021.50 M ton
( 12.43 % )

20,000.00

1,001.64 M ton
( 0.96 % )

10,000.00
0.00
Low < 5100

Medium ( 5100 - 6100 )

High ( 6100 - 7100 )

Very high > 7100

Source : Indonesian Geological

Agency

PRODUCTION, EXPORT AND DOMESTIC

SALES AND FUTURE FORECASTS

INDONESIAS THERMAL COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORT AND

DOMESTIC SALES

Coal production increased by 14.8 %,from 283 million

tons in 2009 to be around 325 million tons by 2010, and
in 2011 is predicted to be around 335 to 350 million
tons.

Export increased by 15.22 %, i.e. from 230 million tons to be

around 265 million tons by 2010; and in 2011 is predicted
to be around 270 to 285 million tons.
Domestic sales increased about 13.21 %, i.e. from 53 million
ton to be around 60 million tons by 2010. In 2011 the
domestic sales is predicted to be around 63 to 69 million tons.
China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are the main
countries of destination of Indonesian coal export. Almost 72 %
of the coal production are exported, while the rest are sold
domestically;
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INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORT AND DOMESTIC SALES

(1996-2010)
350
Production Growth
: 14,8 % per year
Export Growth
: 15,12 % per year
Domestic Sales Growth : 13.8%per year

300

283

LRC Production in 2009 was about 5,8 % of the

total production, and increased to about 8,7 % by
2010 %.

250
Milion tons

325

265
240
221.1

200

191

190.48
152.86

150
121.04
102.6

100

50

46.2
35.5

10.9

54.1
40.9
13.2

62.1
46.7
15.4

72.9
53.9
19

79.3

57.2
22.1

90.7
63.4
27.3

85.3

158.6
144.94

130.86
110.79
93.76

73.4

29.2

62.5
35.74

230

37.1

41.3

45.54

49

53

60

Production
Export
Domestic

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT BY MAIN DESTINATION COUNTRIES

45,000.00

40,000.00

35,000.00

Thousand tons

Japan
30,000.00

India
25,000.00

Korea, Republic of
Taiwan

20,000.00

China
15,000.00

10,000.00

5,000.00

0.00

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010*

INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT BY DESTINATION COUNTRIES

(Million Tons)
Country of
Destination
India
China
Korea, Republic of
Japan
Taiwan
Malaysia
Thailand

Shares
(%)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010*

10,674.1
1,473.1
11,669.3
22,612.1
17,765.5
6,112.8
4,787.2

16,255.4
2,503.2
14,376.6
27,312.8
17,895.8
7,399.8
6,404.5

20,742.4
6,656.5
21,314.1
35,295.7
26,723.8
8,782.6
8,475.1

25,179.1
14,122.3
27,371.5
35,198.5
24,863.1
9,376.5
11,963.2

26,327.5
15,673.7
26,286.8
36,259.8
24,669.4
11,104.3
12,822.8

39,109.0
38,657.6
33,418.3
32,217.7
24,723.4
12,483.3
11,229.5

43,432.4
42,931.1
37,112.3
35,779.3
27,456.5
13,863.3
12,470.9

16.70
16.51
14.27
13.76
10.56
5.33
4.80

Hongkong
Philippines
Italy
Spain

7,367.3
3,603.1
5,198.1
2,775.7

9,408.6 10,985.2
3,906.1 5,818.2
6,285.5 7,637.8
3,317.0 4,444.9

11,235.5
6,023.5
6,193.8
4,308.6

10,497.1
6,338.0
5,592.8
4,387.4

10,714,2
7,517.9
5,796.9
4,808.3

11,898.6
8,349.0
6,437.7
5,339.8

4.58
3.21
2.48
2.05

Netherlands
United States
Others

1,105.7
1,959.9
8,526.0

2,138.7 5,690.9
2,050.3 3,740.8
9,789.8 17,701.0

1,266.9
4,557.7
14,125.7

3,740.7
3,993.8
13,327.6

3,384.8
2,081.5
7,976.3

3,759.0
2,312.0
8,858.1

1.44
0.90
3.41

105,629.9 129,044.1 184,009.0 195,785.9 201,021.7 234,118.7

260,000.0

TOTAL

100.00

Source : Statistical Yearbook of Indonesia, 2009, BPS Statistics of Indonesia

Note : * Estimation

THE DEVELOPMENT OF COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORT AND DOMESTIC

SALES, AND ESTIMATION UP TO 2025
(based on the existing infrastructure capability)
600
Production

Export

Million tons

500

Domestic

560
Prediction

Realization

414

400
398

325

300

200

100

283
221.1
190.48
144.94

45.54
2006

240

230

250

184

191

2007

300*
260

265

158.6

62.5

240

148

49
2008

53
2009

60

2010

Note :
*Calculated based on Government target on Primary Energy Mix ( Pres. Decree No.5 /2006 )

2015

2020

2025
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KEYS TO FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF INDONESIAN COAL MINING

INDUSTRY

FACTS:

Increasing pressure on conservation of Indonesian coal

Numbers of Mining Permits (IUP) issued: 4000 to 5000 permits; companies in
operation: 300 to 400 companies
Increasing number of small mining companies without Good Mining Practices, Proper
CSR Practices, and Good Corporate Governance, hence industry images deteriorates.
Low infrastructure capacity
New regulations tend to limit agressive expansion of coal mining activities, and
campaigning more local/domestic consumption.
There is more Low Rank Coal available than High Quality Coal
Indonesia is rich of other mineral as well (Nickel, Iron Ore, Manganese, Bauxite,
Aluminium, Copper, Gold, etc,)

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KEYS TO FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF INDONESIAN COAL MINING

INDUSTRY
ADDRESSING THE CHALLENGES:

Development must be expanded to be beyond conventional produce and sell of

thermal coal.
Investing in infrastructure (railways, hauling roads, etc.)
Continuing exploration
Investing in coal minings with sizeable operations by consolidating small IUPs
(permits) to become at least 5,000 ha.
Investing in Coal Upgrading (UBC, Lignite to semi-soft coking coal, CWM, etc.), Coal
Conversion (CTL, Coal Gasification, etc.) technologies as well as CBF (Coal Blending
Facilities)
Relocating mineral precessing industries such as Nickel, Manganese, iron ore
smelterings, or even further to steel making closer to source of energy (coal and
natural gas) by way of mine-mouth power plants (cheaper energy).

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Thank You
E-mail: apbi-icma@indo.net.id
Menara Kuningan Building, 1 st Floor Suite A
Jl. H. R. Rasuna Said Blok X-7 Kav.5
Jakarta 12940 - INDONESIA
Phone/Fax : 021-30015935, 30015936, 30015674
Website : www.apbi-icma.com
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