เอกสารประกอบการสอน หัวข้อ เทคนิคการบริหารการเงินส่วนบุคคลและการตั้งเป้าหมายชีวิต

Krungsri Asset Management
Personal Finance
Bangkok University
24 September 2013
Section 1 : Savings and Investment
Section 1: Savings and Investment

Section 2: Financial Planning
Section 3: University Investment
Section 4: Krungsri Asset Management
Savings and Investments

(Saving) =
Savings = Incomes Expenses
0.125-2.00%
1.60-4.25%
IRR 1.00-3.00%

14
10.5
3.4
(.)
21,277
2 ( 1.25-3.50%)
6,046
3 ( 3.25-4.65%) 422

. 2551

1 2555
2559

30%

1
GDP
- THAI

12
1997-98
GDP -13.9% to 1.0%,

/
2006
GDP 4.4 - 6.1%,

5%
2013

GDP 4.2%
2.5%
(%)
AVG 3y = 3.11%
AVG 5y = 2.48%
AVG 10y = 3.12%
AVG 20y = 3.42%
AVG 30y = 3.49%
Savings and Investments

10
10
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
-6
-6
-7
Dec-98
-7
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Real Interest Rate
Source: Bank of Thailand as of 28 Dec 12, Krungsri Asset
Dec-05
Dec-06
Inflation Rate
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
1-yr Deposit Rate
Presentation | Krungsri Asset Management Co., Ltd.
13
:
...
Real Interest Rate
Inflation Rate
1Y Deposit rate
25%
25%
.. 2003 .. 2012

34 (28.33%)
86 (71.67%)
20%
20%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
Jan-77
Jan-78
Jan-79
Jan-80
Jan-81
Jan-82
Jan-83
Jan-84
Jan-85
Jan-86
Jan-87
Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
15%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-5%
4.67%
7.42%
2.75%
Source: Bank of Thailand, Ministry of Commerce, Krungsri Asset as of 28 Dec 12
-10%
-15%
Presentation by Krungsri Asset Management Co., Ltd. | Krungsri
14

4,200,000
4,000,000
10.00%
3,992,352
8.00%
3,800,000
6.00%
3,600,000
4.00%
3,400,000
2.00%
3,200,000
3,000,000
2,800,000
0.00%
3
2,816,806
-2.00%
2,600,000
-4.00%
2,400,000
2,200,000
-8.00%
2,000,000
1,800,000
Dec-98
-6.00%
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
G/L on Deposit (%)
Source: Bank of Thailand as of 28 Dec 12, Krungsri Asset
Dec-05
Dec-06
Bank Account
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
-10.00%
Dec-12
Economic Value
Presentation | Krungsri Asset Management Co., Ltd.
15

1985 - 1987
Dec 1985
Dec 1986
Mar 1987
May 1987
Corolla 1.3
308,000
308,000
339,500
350,000
Corolla 1.6
308,000
327,000
366,000
Corona 1.6
349,000
349,000
389,000
Oct 1987
TOYOTA
TOYOTA COROLLA 2012
389,000
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
..
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
2052
( 4%)
1.2167
1.4802
1.8009
2.1911
2.6658
3.2434
3.9461
4.8010
()
7.5
9.12
11.10
13.51
16.43
20.00
24.33
29.60
36.01
18
19
(Investment)

3%
1

3%
...

(High Net Worth Individuals - HNWIs)
*
**
* Includes: Structured products, hedge funds, derivatives, foreign currencies, commodities, private equity, venture capital, other (may include:
structured credit, managed futures, investments of passion, etc.)
** Includes: Commercial real estate, REITs and other investment properties
Source: Capgemini/Merrill Lynch Financial Advisor Surveys, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011
(HNWIs)
50%
(Alternative
Investments)
21
Presentation Level 2 | Krungsri | 2013
22
13 4
...
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
36.69% 14.25% 15.37% 23.64% 126.35% 2.93% 23.84% 6.85% 31.37% 18.66% 71.35% 47.80% 21.91% 41.28%
7.76% 8.92% 8.35% 20.27% 9.22% 2.87% 11.22% 5.47% 25.02% 7.57% 19.96% 16.80% 5.61% 5.04%
4.81% 3.68% 3.01% 10.21% 1.41% 1.00% 1.43% 4.18% 7.65% 2.55% 1.00% 5.76% 3.96% 3.27%
3.21% -43.35% 2.86% 2.44% -2.46% -10.46% -0.24% -0.26% 2.90% -45.10% -4.18% 0.92% 2.24% 2.70%
SETTRI
Gov.Bond
Gold
1Y Deposit
: , ThaiBMA, Bloomberg 2 .. 1999 28 .. 2012
23
24

10%
Global Bond
Asset
< -40%
Deposit 1 Year
US Property Price
Oil Fund
Commodity Index
Commodity ETF
Thai Bond Index
Global Bond
GOLD
SET Index
Emerging Equity
-30% to -20% to -10% to 0% to

-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
13%
10%
9%
3%
3%
4%
0%
3%
1%
13%
12%
5%
6%
8%
3%
2%
5%
2%
3%
6%
8%
13%
6%
9%
25%
21%
18%
22%
15%
9%
25%
11%
10%
0-5%
100%
11%
10%
17%
12%
29%
28%
10%
8%
7%
5-10%
15%
3%
6%
6%
31%
34%
11%
7%
5%
10-20% 20-30% 30-40% > 40%
35%
12%
8%
13%
24%
27%
15%
13%
16%
4%
9%
10%
6%
15%
8%
15%
6%
9%
2%
10%
9%
10%
5%
10%
7%
5%
18%
21%

10-40%

25

oil fund commodity ETF
Asset
Negative
Positive
Negative
Return
Return
Return
Chance (%) Chance (%) Average
Deposit 1 Year
US Property Price
Oil Fund
Commodity Index
Commodity ETF
Thai Bond Index
Global Bond
GOLD
SET Index
Emerging Equity
38%
49%
38%
42%
15%
9%
43%
36%
33%
100%
62%
51%
62%
58%
85%
91%
57%
64%
67%
-8%
-21%
-21%
-17%
-3%
-3%
-10%
-24%
-19%
Positive
Return
Average
2%
10%
28%
20%
21%
7%
8%
20%
31%
29%
Historical
Average
2.2%
3.2%
3.8%
4.6%
5.0%
5.8%
7.1%
7.1%
11.7%
13.0%
26
Source: Merrill Lynch
27

9.7
~11.4
~7
3
. 3.4
13.8
/ 12.5
2.6
3.2
1.5
3.8
0.7
1.9
Section 2 : Financial Planning
4
1.
30
4
2.
31
4
3.
32
4
4.
33
10 - 20

21 - 30

31 - 40

41 - 50

51 - 60

61 - 70

/

/
34
(Life Cycle)

(Willingness)
36
Expected Return
expected
return
Very Low Risk

Low Risk
Medium-Low Risk
Medium Risk
Medium-High Risk
High Risk
Expected
Long-term
Return
3.49%
7.42%
9.35%
11.68%
14.01%
18.36%
Volatility
(SD)
1.46%
6.69%
8.63%
10.92%
13.22%
15.87%
Upside
(+2SD)
6.42%
20.79%
26.60%
33.52%
40.45%
50.10%
Downside
(-2SD)
0.57%
-5.95%
-7.90%
-10.17%
-12.43%
-13.39%
Asset Allocation

-

3
International School
10,000 150,000
300,000 800,000
30,000 450,000
900,000 2,400,000
4
/
29,000 42,000
57,000 135,000
116,000 168,000
228,000 540,000

4%
= 146,000 2,940,000
= 170,000 3,150,000
USA
USA
TOP 10
36,000 270,000
730,000
1,300,000
2020/
46,000 340,000
923,700
1,600,000
92,000 680,000
1,847,400
3,200,000
= 92,000 3,200,000
+ = 5,000,000
2,000,000
2,000,000
Low Risk
Investment
High Risk
Investment
14%/
3%/
12.5%/
100%
+

60%
40%
100%
27,188
3,345
/ ()
Inter School/
Inter Program
(3 )
36,000 100,000
200,000 680,000
(6 )
55,000 100,000
300,000 760,000
(6 )
55,000 180,000
400,000 800,000
(4 )
34,000 80,000
153,000 580,000
(2 )
36,000 - 270,000
USA 730,000 1,600,000
21
1,104,000 2,500,000
6,860,000 16,756,000
= 1.1 16.8
8,265
18,000
5,093
30,000
1,328
5,000
489
5,000
840
30,000
521
10,000
16,536
98,000
198,432
1,176,000
4%
309,151 /
1,832,170 /
80

9,883,311
58,573,013
/
/
= 9.9 58.6

45 15
9.9
58.6
2,000,000
2,000,000
360,000 /
360,000 /
11.25%/
2.98%/
25.25%/
19.86%/
100%
100%
21.24

50%
50%
100,000
12%
Section 3 : University Investment

Portfolio
Yale University
Asset Allocation (as of June 30, 2012)
Yale University
Harvard University
University of California
General Endowment Pool
Strategic Asset Allocation and Ranges
Section 4 : Krungsri Asset Management

(Trustee)
/

Agent
( )
( )
Ayudhya Fund Management Co., Ltd.,

part of BAY Group
49
Equity
Fixed
Income
Mixed
Property
type1
Property
type 2-4
2011 (..)
458,838
1,241,802
60,401
101,944
156,979
62,790
2,082,754
2012 (..)
572,356
1,575,929
86,808
139,528
155,498
84,284
2,614,402
25%
27%
44%
37%
-1%
34%
26%
2011
2012
60%
: AIMC, 30 .. 2011 28 .. 2012
50
. (Krungsri Asset) 350
1. 2.
() 3.
30 2556 177,851 35,108

16,907 125,836
( : )
177,851
42,894
35,108
total AUM Fixed Income FundsPrivate Funds
25,491
LTF Funds
17,540
17,361
16,907
Equity Funds
FIF Funds
Provident Funds
10,777
RMF Funds
6,778
4,995
Flexible Funds Property Funds
30 2556
51 51

Auto Hire Purchase and Leasing
Ratanarak
Group
25%
25%
Others
50%
Credit Card and Personal Loan
BBTV
Equity
13%
Asset Management
77%
10%
Securities
Insurances (Non-Life & Life)
Factoring and Auto Financing
52
52

M&W LTF/RMF Fund Awards
2012
Krungsri Dividend Stock LTF
Best LTF Fund
2010
Krungsri Dividend Stock LTF
Best LTF Fund
2010
Krungsri Dividend Stock RMF
Best RMF - Equity Fund
Morningstar Fund Awards Thailand
2013
Krungsri Medium Term Fixed Income Fund
Best Fixed Income Fund : Mid/ Long Term Bond
2012
Krungsri Dynamic Fund
Best Equity Fund : Large Cap
2012
Krungsri Dividend Stock Fund
Best Equity Fund : Equity General Category
2010
Krungsri Dividend Stock Fund
Best Equity Fund : Equity General Category
2009
Krungsri Medium Term Fixed Income Fund
Best Fixed Income Fund: Mid/Long-Term Bond
The Asset Magazine

2009
The Most Astute Local Currency Bond Investors
2009
The Best Investment House in Thai Baht Bonds
2007
The Most Astute Local Currency Bond Investors

Post/Lipper Awards
2009
KFTW2, KFTW3 & KFTSRMF
Best Mixed Asset Group Over 3 Years Award
2009
Krungsri Star Capital Fund
Best Equity Fund Over Ten Years Award
2005
Krungsri Chaimongkol Fund
Best General Fixed Income Fund Over Five Years Award
Source: Krungsri Asset Management as of April 2013
53
3 2012
*
15 2555

Morningstar M&W

54
2013
.
2013
(KFMTFI)
Morningstar 25 .. 2556

/
55
online

-

54,000
.

Asset Allocation
55.00%
1. KFSPLUS
Money market fund
(enhanced)
Fund
45.00%
Historical Return
40.00%
Upside (+2SD)
40.44%
33.52%
30.00%
26.59%
25.00%
Foreign Investment
20.79%
18.36%
20.00%
15.00%
Fund
4. KF-ELI
Downside (-2SD)
35.00%
2. KFMTFI Active Fixed Income

3. KF-TRB
50.10%
50.00%
Foreign Investment
Fund
6.42%
10.00%
3.49%
7.42%
9.35%
11.68%
14.01%
5.00%
0.57%
0.00%
5. KF-HGOLD Foreign
Investment Fund
-5.00%
-10.00%
6. KFVALUE Dividend Stock

Fund
-15.00%
A) Very Low
Risk
B) Low Risk
-5.95%
C) Medium-Low D)Medium Risk E) Medium-High

Risk
Risk
-7.89%
-10.16%
-12.42%
F) High Risk
-13.39%
-20.00%
:
: Bloomberg, Apex, ThaiBMA, BoT, KSAM
59
(1)
A) Very Low Risk (5 10 )
A) Very Low Risk
KFSPLUS
60%
KFMTFI
20%
KF-TRB
20%
KFSPLUS (KFCASHRMF)
KFMTFI (KFGOVRMF)
KF-TRB (KFGOVRMF)
KF-HGOLD (KFGOLDRMF)
KFVALUE (KFDIVRMF, KFLTFDIV)
Total
Long-term
Volatility Upside Downside
% Weight Historical
(SD) (+2 SD) (-2 SD)
Return
1yr
(2012)
3yrs
(10-12)
5yrs
(08-12)
60.00%
20.00%
20.00%
0.00%
0.00%
2.03%
3.17%
8.20%
6.28%
18.36%
0.22%
0.75%
5.90%
20.14%
15.87%
2.48%
4.66%
20.00%
46.55%
50.10%
1.59%
1.67%
-3.60%
-34.00%
-13.39%
2.89%
3.59%
10.62%
5.89%
43.21%
6.76%
7.43%
21.68%
50.95%
149.98%
10.55%
14.47%
35.65%
98.56%
152.14%
100%
3.49%
1.46%
6.42%
0.57%
4.58%
9.88%
16.35%
1yr
(2012)
3yrs
(10-12)
5yrs
(08-12)
B) Low Risk (11 16 )

KFVALUE
KF-HGOLD 10%
10%
B) Low Risk
KFMTFI
40%
KF-ELI
10%
KF-TRB 30%
KFMTFI (KFGOVRMF)
KF-TRB (KFGOVRMF)
KF-ELI (KFGOVRMF)
Total
Long-term
% Weight Historical
(SD) (+2 SD) (-2 SD)
Return
40.00%
30.00%
10.00%
10.00%
10.00%
3.17%
8.20%
12.31%
6.28%
18.36%
0.75%
5.90%
10.17%
20.14%
15.87%
4.66%
20.00%
32.64%
46.55%
50.10%
1.67%
-3.60%
-8.02%
-34.00%
-13.39%
3.59%
10.62%
16.87%
5.89%
43.21%
7.43%
21.68%
32.82%
50.95%
149.98%
14.47%
35.65%
53.56%
98.56%
152.14%
100%
7.42%
6.69%
20.79%
-5.95%
11.22%
32.85%
46.91%
* proxy: KF-HGOLD
spot (Bloomberg ticker: GOLDS Comdty Index) , KF-TRB Benchmark (Bloomberg ticker:
LBUSTRUU Index), KF-ELI Benchmark (Bloomberg ticker: JGENVUUG Index), KFSPLUS KFCASHPLUS + KFSPLUS, KFVALUE
KFLTFDIV + KFVALUE
:
: Bloomberg, KSAM
60
(2)
C) Medium-Low Risk (17 23 )
KFVALUE
20%
KFMTFI
30%
KFMTFI (KFGOVRMF)
KF-TRB (KFGOVRMF)
KF-ELI (KFGOVRMF)
Total
KF-HGOLD 10%
KF-ELI
20%
C) Medium-Low Risk
KFTRB
20%
Long-term
% Weight Historical
(SD) (+2 SD) (-2 SD)
Return
1yr
(2012)
3yrs
(10-12)
5yrs
(08-12)
30.00%
20.00%
20.00%
10.00%
20.00%
3.17%
8.20%
12.31%
6.28%
18.36%
0.75%
5.90%
10.17%
20.14%
15.87%
4.66%
20.00%
32.64%
46.55%
50.10%
1.67%
-3.60%
-8.02%
-34.00%
-13.39%
3.59%
10.62%
16.87%
5.89%
43.21%
7.43%
21.68%
32.82%
50.95%
149.98%
14.47%
35.65%
53.56%
98.56%
152.14%
100%
9.35%
8.63%
26.60%
-7.90%
15.80%
48.22%
62.47%
Long-term
% Weight Historical
(SD) (+2 SD) (-2 SD)
Return
1yr
(2012)
3yrs
(10-12)
5yrs
(08-12)
D) Medium Risk (24 29 )

D) Medium Risk
KFVALUE
40%
KFMTFI
20%
KF-TRB
15%
KF-HGOLD KF-ELI
10%
15%
KFMTFI (KFGOVRMF)
KF-TRB (KFGOVRMF)
KF-ELI (KFGOVRMF)
Total
20.00%
15.00%
15.00%
10.00%
40.00%
3.17%
8.20%
12.31%
6.28%
18.36%
0.75%
5.90%
10.17%
20.14%
15.87%
4.66%
20.00%
32.64%
46.55%
50.10%
1.67%
-3.60%
-8.02%
-34.00%
-13.39%
3.59%
10.62%
16.87%
5.89%
43.21%
7.43%
21.68%
32.82%
50.95%
149.98%
14.47%
35.65%
53.56%
98.56%
152.14%
100%
11.68%
10.92%
33.52%
-10.17%
22.71%
74.75%
86.99%
* proxy: KF-HGOLD
KFLTFDIV + KFVALUE
:
: Bloomberg, KSAM
61
(3)
E) Medium-High Risk (30 35 )
KFMTFI
10%
KFVALUE
60%
KF-TRB
10%
KF-ELI 10%
KF-HGOLD
10%
E) Medium-High Risk
KFMTFI (KFGOVRMF)
KF-TRB (KFGOVRMF)
KF-ELI (KFGOVRMF)
Total
Long-term
% Weight Historical
(SD) (+2 SD) (-2 SD)
Return
1yr
(2012)
3yrs
(10-12)
5yrs
(08-12)
14.47%
35.65%
53.56%
98.56%
152.14%
10.00%
10.00%
10.00%
10.00%
60.00%
3.17%
8.20%
12.31%
6.28%
18.36%
0.75%
5.90%
10.17%
20.14%
15.87%
4.66%
20.00%
32.64%
46.55%
50.10%
1.67%
-3.60%
-8.02%
-34.00%
-13.39%
3.59%
10.62%
16.87%
5.89%
43.21%
7.43%
21.68%
32.82%
50.95%
149.98%
100%
14.01%
13.22%
40.45%
-12.43%
29.62%
101.27% 111.51%
Long-term
% Weight Historical
(SD) (+2 SD) (-2 SD)
Return
1yr
(2012)
3yrs
(10-12)
5yrs
(08-12)
14.47%
35.65%
53.56%
98.56%
152.14%
F) High Risk
F) High Risk
KFMTFI (KFGOVRMF)
KF-TRB (KFGOVRMF)
KF-ELI (KFGOVRMF)
Total
KFVALUE
100%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
100.00%
3.17%
8.20%
12.31%
6.28%
18.36%
0.75%
5.90%
10.17%
20.14%
15.87%
4.66%
20.00%
32.64%
46.55%
50.10%
1.67%
-3.60%
-8.02%
-34.00%
-13.39%
3.59%
10.62%
16.87%
5.89%
43.21%
7.43%
21.68%
32.82%
50.95%
149.98%
100%
18.36%
15.87%
50.10%
-13.39%
43.21%
149.98% 152.14%
* proxy: KF-HGOLD
KFLTFDIV + KFVALUE
:
: Bloomberg, KSAM
62
Core-Satellite Investment
Passive Active
asset allocation
core-satellite

passive ETF , Index fund
10%

63

Core-Satellite Investment
(2010-2012)
10%
1.64%
+ SET index
3.98%
3.04%
0.32%

satellite -32%
64
()
65
Thank you

เอกสารประกอบการสอน หัวข้อ เทคนิคการบริหารการเงินส่วนบุคคลและการตั้งเป้าหมายชีวิต

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เอกสารประกอบการสอน หัวข้อ เทคนิคการบริหารการเงินส่วนบุคคลและการตั้งเป้าหมายชีวิต

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Krungsri Asset Management

Section 1 : Savings and Investment

Section 1: Savings and Investment

Section 4: Krungsri Asset Management

Savings and Investments

Savings = Incomes Expenses

GDP -13.9% to 1.0%,

GDP 4.4 - 6.1%,

Savings and Investments

Real Interest Rate

Source: Bank of Thailand as of 28 Dec 12, Krungsri Asset

1-yr Deposit Rate

Presentation | Krungsri Asset Management Co., Ltd.

Presentation by Krungsri Asset Management Co., Ltd. | Krungsri

G/L on Deposit (%)

Source: Bank of Thailand as of 28 Dec 12, Krungsri Asset

Presentation | Krungsri Asset Management Co., Ltd.

TOYOTA COROLLA 2012

Presentation Level 2 | Krungsri | 2013

: , ThaiBMA, Bloomberg 2 .. 1999 28 .. 2012

Presentation by Krungsri Asset Management Co., Ltd. | Krungsri

Presentation Level 2 | Krungsri | 2013

-30% to -20% to -10% to 0% to

10-20% 20-30% 30-40% > 40%

Presentation Level 2 | Krungsri | 2013

Presentation Level 2 | Krungsri | 2013

Source: Merrill Lynch

Presentation by Krungsri Asset Management Co., Ltd. | Krungsri

Section 2 : Financial Planning

Presentation by Krungsri Asset Management Co., Ltd. | Krungsri

Presentation by Krungsri Asset Management Co., Ltd. | Krungsri

Presentation by Krungsri Asset Management Co., Ltd. | Krungsri

Presentation by Krungsri Asset Management Co., Ltd. | Krungsri

Presentation by Krungsri Asset Management Co., Ltd. | Krungsri

Presentation by Krungsri Asset Management Co., Ltd. | Krungsri

Very Low Risk

USA 730,000 1,600,000

Section 3 : University Investment

Asset Allocation (as of June 30, 2012)

Section 4 : Krungsri Asset Management

Ayudhya Fund Management Co., Ltd.,

. (Krungsri Asset) 350

30 2556 177,851 35,108

total AUM Fixed Income FundsPrivate Funds

Flexible Funds Property Funds

Credit Card and Personal Loan

Insurances (Non-Life & Life)

Factoring and Auto Financing

Krungsri Dividend Stock LTF

Best LTF Fund

Krungsri Dividend Stock LTF

Best LTF Fund

Krungsri Dividend Stock RMF

Best RMF - Equity Fund

Morningstar Fund Awards Thailand

Krungsri Medium Term Fixed Income Fund

Best Fixed Income Fund : Mid/ Long Term Bond

Krungsri Dynamic Fund

Best Equity Fund : Large Cap

Krungsri Dividend Stock Fund

Best Equity Fund : Equity General Category

Krungsri Dividend Stock Fund

Best Equity Fund : Equity General Category