KHA O TO NGN HN V

L THUYT TIN CY V QUN L RI RO CC

CNG TRNH K THUT
C quan t chc v bo tr:
Trung tm cng ngh xy dng i Loan (TBTC) , i hc Cng ngh i Loan
Khoa Xy dng, i hc cng ngh i Loan
i hc Xy dng (NUCE)
a im : trng i hc Xy dng
Thi gian :7 n 11 thng 11 nm 2011
Ban t chc:
GS. A.H-S.Ang, i hc California, Irvine, Gim c TBTC, i hc cng ngh i
Loan.
GS.T.P Chang, Trng khoa Xy dng, i hc cng ngh i Loan
PGS. TS. Hu Thnh, trng phng Hp tc Quc t, PG Trung tm Hp tc o
to v T vn Quc t, HXD
Ni dung v Mc ch kha hc
xut t chc kha o to ngn hn v tin cy trong cc cng trnh k thut v
Qun l ri ro nhm mc ch gip cho cn b k thut, cc k s ang hnh ngh ti
Vit Nam nm vng v p dng cc phng php khoa hc hin i c th gii quyt
nhng yu t bt nh trong qu trnh lp k hoch, thit k v bo tr cc h thng cng
trnh k thut v c s h tng. Cc khi nim c bn v phng php m hnh ha
bt nh trong cc cng trnh k thut s c gii thiu, thng qua cc v d m t v
bt nh trong cng trnh k thut cng cc gii php phn tch nh hng ca chng n
kh nng lm vic ca h thng. Sau phn l thuyt, kha hc s trnh by cc ng dng
thc t trong lnh vc kt cu xy dng v a k thut cng trnh. Cc kin thc ny
cng c p dng rng ri trong nhiu lnh vc k thut khc.
Chng trnh kha o to ko di 5 ngy s nng cao c s kin thc ca cc k s ang
lm vic ti cc ngnh cng nghip, cc c quan nh nc, cng nh cn b ging dy
trong cc trng i hc. Kt qu ca kha hc s gip hc vin xy dng cc phng
php tip cn thng minh hn trong vic gii quyt cc vn v bt nh, nh gi
nh hng ca chng i vi an ton v kh nng lm vic ca h thng k thut.
Cc c s thch hp trong vic ra quyt nh mt cch thng minh da trn cc thng tin
v ri ro cng s c thit lp nh la chn cc h s an ton ph hp trong thit k.
Cc ti liu c gii thiu trong kha hc ph hp vi li ku gi nng cao cht lng
o to v tnh chuyn nghip trong thc tin xy dng, nu trong Tm nhn 2025 ca
Hip hi K s xy dng M xut nm 2007 v Cm nang kin thc ca Hip hi K
s xy dng M nm 2008.

Ch v Ri ro v Bt nh l mt trong cc lnh vc ch yu c nhn mnh trong

li ku gi ny nhm hin i ha thc tin ngh nghip ca ngnh xy dng dn dng
trong th k 21 trn phm vi ton th gii.
Ni dung chng trnh kha hc

Ngy 1: Bi ging (6 ting)

Ging vin: GS. A.H-S.Ang, i hc California, Gim c Trung tm Cng ngh Xy
dng, i hc Bch khoa i Loan.
Cc cng c c bn v k thut tin cy v Qun l ri ro
1. Gii thiu : Nhn mnh cc cng c v xc sut v thng k m phng cc bi
ton k thut lin quan n yu t bt nh v nh gi tc ng ca bt nh
ln kh nng lm vic v an ton ca cc h thng cng trnh k thut.
2. Cc cng c c bn: C s l thuyt xc sut (m phng s vi cc v d c th)

Nhn dng cc s kin v tnh ton xc sut

3. M hnh phn tch v phng php gii cc bi ton xc sut

Phn b xc sut trong k thut

Phn b chun v loga chun
Phn b Bernoulli v qu trnh Poison
Phn b cc tr

Hm ca cc bin ngu nhin

S trung bnh v phng sai ca cc hm s; xp x

M phng Monte Carlo trong k thut

4. Cc thnh phn ca phng php thng k

Ly mu thng k v th nghim gi thuyt

Xc nh khong tin cy

C s thng k cho phn b xc sut: Giy xc sut

Cc phn tch hi quy

5. Phn tch ri ro v thit lp cc quyt nh chng ri ro
M phng phn tch ri ro v cc quyt nh da trn thng tin ri ro

Ngy 2: Bi ging 6 ting

Ging vin: Gio s Wilson Tang, i hc Khoa hc v cng ngh Hongkong
Cc ng dng trong kt cu cng trnh
1. Phn tch an ton v tin cy ca kt cu

Cc nguyn tc an ton v tin cy

FORM: Phng php xp x trong cc ng dng thc t

2. Thit k cc kt cu mi
Thit k da trn tin cy
H s ti trng v sc khng i vi LRFD
3. tin cy ca h thng kt cu

tin cy ca h thng
Cc cng thc c bn : cc hnh thi a ph hoi
Cc h thng song song v bc thang

Cng trnh nh ca v cu cng

4. iu tra, bo dng v sa cha

Chin lc bo dng

Khong thi gian kim tra ti u

Nh ca v Cu
5. Phn tch chi ph vng i d n v thit k ti u

Cc ng dng cho vic thit k nh ca v cu

6. Cc kt qu mi trong nghin cu gn y ( bo co ca cc nghin cu ti
khoa xy dng, H cng ngh i Loan)

Ngy 3: Bi ging 6 ting

Ging vin: Gio s Wilson Tang, i hc Khoa hc v cng ngh Hongkong
ng dng trong a k thut
1. La chn cc thng s xc sut ca cng trng phc v cho cng tc thit
k

Phng php x l thng tin Bayes

Phn tch bt nh ca tham s a k thut

Pht hin cc d bin a cht

2. tin cy ca cc h thng cng trnh a k thut

H thng neo t

H thng mng su cho cng trnh v cu

dc ca cc cng trnh k thut

Thit k theo tin cy

3. Thit k ti u cho cc h thng a k thut

Tng chn t

Lp t ph

Phng php gim thiu nguy him ca mi dc

4. Phn tch v qun l ri ro cc cng trnh a k thut

m bo cht lng thi cng cc

Thit k dc t l ln trong khu vc 3 h cha Gorge

Qun l ri ro trong st l t ti HongKong

5. Cc kt qu nghin cu hin ngay ( bo co ca cc nghin cu ti khoa xy
dng, H cng ngh i Loan)
Ng y 4 &5 Gii thiu v cc thnh tu t c trong cc nghin cu gn y
ti i loan v th gii v cc ch trnh by
Ti liu tham kho ( www.asce.org)
1. Tm nhn Ngnh Xy dng n 2025, ASCE, 2007
2. Kin thc v xy dng dn dng cho th k 21, ASCE, 2008