Model Facts

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Copyright 2001 by the Trustees of the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation.

Page 1

Model Facts

Page 2

Exhibit 1
KOTA FIBRES, LTD.
Summary of monthly sales: Actual for 2000 and Forecast for 2001
2000
(historical)

2001
(forecast)

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

2,012,400
2,314,260
3,421,080
7,043,400
12,074,400
15,294,240
14,187,420
7,144,020
4,024,800
3,421,080
2,716,740
2,213,640

2,616,120
2,892,825
4,447,404
8,804,250
13,885,560
17,588,376
16,315,533
8,572,824
5,031,000
4,447,404
3,531,762
2,767,050

Year

75,867,480

90,900,108

Supporting Calculations for Exhibit 1

HISTORICAL CYCLE
FORECAST CYCLE

100
130

115
125

2000 (historical)

TOTAL
75,867,480 2,012,400 2,314,260

2001 (forecast)

90,900,108 2,616,120 2,892,825

GROSS UP RATIO

170
130

350
125

600
115

760
115

705
115

355
120

200
125

170
130

135
130

3,421,080 7,043,400 12,074,400 15,294,240 14,187,420 7,144,020 4,024,800 3,421,080 2,716,740

4,447,404 8,804,250 13,885,560 17,588,376 16,315,533 8,572,824 5,031,000 4,447,404 3,531,762

110
125

2,213,640
2,767,050

Exhibit 2
KOTA FIBRES, LTD.
Historical Annual Income Statements ( in Rupees)

Gross Sales
Excise Tax
Net Sales
Cost of Goods
Gross Profits
Operating Expenses
Depreciation
Interest Expense
Profit Before Tax
Income Tax
Net Profit

1999

2000

2001

(Actual)

(Actual)

(Forecast)

64,487,358
9,673,104
54,814,254
44,496,277
10,317,978
3,497,305
769,103
910,048
5,141,521
1,542,456
3,599,065

75,867,480
11,380,122
64,487,358
53,865,911
10,621,447
4,828,721
908,608
1,240,066
3,644,052
1,093,216
2,550,837

90,900,108
13,635,016
77,265,092
66,993,380
10,271,712
5,454,006
1,073,731
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

###
2,254,894
###
###
(349,735)
625,285
165,123
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

Exhibit 3
KOTA FIBRES, LTD.
Historical Balance Sheets (in Rupees)
2000

2001

(Actual)

(Forecast)

Cash
Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Total Current Assets
Gross PP&E
Accumulated Depreciation
Net PP&E
Total Assets

762,323
2,672,729
1,249,185
4,684,237
10,095,646
1,484,278
8,611,368
13,295,604

750,000
3,715,152
2,225,373
6,690,525
11,495,646
2,558,009
8,937,637
15,628,161

Accounts Payable
Notes to Bank (Deposits at Bank)
Accrued Taxes
Total Current Liabilities
Owners' Equity
Total Liabilities and Equity

759,535
684,102
0
1,443,637
11,851,967
13,295,604

1,157,298
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

Cash

Accounts Payable
Notes to Bank (Deposits at Bank)

Fuentes
12,323 Accounts Receivable
Inventories
Net PP&E
397,763 Accrued Taxes
Err:522 Owners' Equity
Err:522

Usos
1,042,423
976,188
326,269
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

(12,323)
###
976,188
###
###
326,269

397,763
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

EXHIBIT 8
KOTA FIBRES, LTD.
Monthly Forecast of Income Statements (in Rupees)
Pro Forma
January
Gross Sales
Excise Taxes
Net Sales
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Depreciation
Interest Expense (Income) (1)
Profit Before Taxes
Income Taxes
Net Profit

2,616,120
392,418
2,223,702
1,928,080
295,622
454,501
84,130
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

February
2,892,825
433,924
2,458,901
2,132,012
326,889
454,501
84,130
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

March
4,447,404
667,111
3,780,293
3,277,737
502,557
454,501
87,047
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

April
8,804,250
1,320,638
7,483,613
6,488,732
994,880
454,501
87,047
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

May

June

13,885,560
2,082,834
11,802,726
10,233,658
1,569,068
454,501
87,047
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

17,588,376
2,638,256
14,950,120
12,962,633
1,987,486
454,501
89,964
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

May

June

July
16,315,533
2,447,330
13,868,203
12,024,548
1,843,655
454,501
89,964
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

August
8,572,824
1,285,924
7,286,900
6,318,171
968,729
454,501
89,964
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

September
5,031,000
754,650
4,276,350
3,707,847
568,503
454,501
92,880
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

October
4,447,404
667,111
3,780,293
3,277,737
502,557
454,501
92,880
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

November
3,531,762
529,764
3,001,998
2,602,909
399,089
454,501
92,880
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

December
2,767,050
415,058
2,351,993
2,039,316
312,677
454,501
95,797
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

(1) Interest expense = Notes Payable * 14.5%/12 months.

Forecasted Monthly Balance Sheets for 2001 (in Rupees)

January

February

March

April

July

August

750,000
2,773,349
2,308,135
5,831,484
8,527,237
14,358,721

750,000
3,291,542
5,850,125
9,891,667
8,443,107
18,334,774

750,000
5,012,144
11,855,841
17,617,985
8,706,060
26,324,045

750,000
10,301,737
17,637,315
28,689,052
8,619,013
37,308,065

750,000
17,997,155
19,666,227
38,413,382
8,531,966
46,945,348

750,000
24,748,757
14,469,652
39,968,409
8,792,002
48,760,411

750,000
25,697,603
6,815,272
33,262,875
8,702,038
41,964,914

750,000
17,191,189
3,883,970
21,825,159
8,612,075
30,437,233

4,010,818
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

6,805,539
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

8,842,088
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

8,142,024
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

3,883,534
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

1,935,531
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

1,614,553
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

September

October

November

December

750,000
9,003,739
2,950,257
12,703,996
8,869,194
21,573,190

750,000
6,295,049
1,854,837
8,899,886
8,776,314
17,676,200

750,000
5,029,249
1,639,892
7,419,142
8,683,434
16,102,575

750,000
3,715,152
2,225,373
6,690,525
8,937,637
15,628,161

1,110,950
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

690,358
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

1,039,007
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

1,157,298
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

Assets
Cash (1)
Accounts Receivable (2)
Inventories (3)
Total Current Assets
Net Prop. Plant & Equip. (4)
Total Assets

Liabilities and Owners' Equity

Accounts Payable (5)
Note Payable- Bank (6)
Accrued Taxes (7)
Total Current Liabilities
Shareholders' Equity (8)
Total Liabilities & Equity

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)

See Exhibit 9.
See panel 1, Exhibit 10.
See panel 2, Exhibit 10.
See panel 6, Exhibit 10.
See panel 3, Exhibit 10.
Plug figure.
See panel 5, Exhibit 10.
See panel 4, Exhibit 10.

1,614,553
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

The Year
90,900,108
13,635,016
77,265,092
66,993,380
10,271,712
5,454,006
1,073,731
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

EXHIBIT 9
KOTA FIBRES, LTD.
Schedule of Cash Receipts and Disbursements (in Rupees)
January
Assume:

Sales
Purchases (1)
Debt Outstanding

1,591,054
684,102

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November December

2,616,120
2,446,072
Err:522

2,892,825
4,842,338
Err:522

4,447,404
7,637,058
Err:522

8,804,250
9,673,607
Err:522

13,885,560
8,973,543
Err:522

17,588,376
4,715,053
Err:522

16,315,533
2,767,050
Err:522

8,572,824
2,446,072
Err:522

5,031,000
1,942,469
Err:522

4,447,404
1,521,878
Err:522

3,531,762
1,870,526
Err:522

2,767,050
1,988,817
Err:522

Receipts:

Accts Rcvble Collected

New Borrowings (Repayments)

2,515,500
Err:522

2,374,632
Err:522

2,726,802
Err:522

3,514,657
Err:522

6,190,142
Err:522

10,836,774
Err:522

15,366,686
Err:522

17,079,239
Err:522

13,218,449
Err:522

7,156,094
Err:522

4,797,562
Err:522

4,081,147
Err:522

Disburs.:

Accounts Paid (2)

Capital Expenditures
Interest Payments
Excise Tax Paid
Operating Expenses
Accrued Income Tax Paid
Wages
Dividends
Subtotal: Disbursements

1,591,054
0
Err:522
392,418
454,501
0
540,958
0
Err:522

2,446,072
0
Err:522
433,924
454,501
0
831,665
0
Err:522

4,842,338
350,000
Err:522
667,111
454,501
Err:522
1,646,395
500,000
Err:522

7,637,058
0
Err:522
1,320,638
454,501
0
2,596,600
0
Err:522

9,673,607
0
Err:522
2,082,834
454,501
0
3,289,026
0
Err:522

8,973,543
350,000
Err:522
2,638,256
454,501
Err:522
3,051,005
500,000
Err:522

4,715,053
0
Err:522
2,447,330
454,501
0
1,603,118
0
Err:522

2,767,050
0
Err:522
1,285,924
454,501
0
940,797
0
Err:522

2,446,072
350,000
Err:522
754,650
454,501
Err:522
831,665
500,000
Err:522

1,942,469
0
Err:522
667,111
454,501
0
660,439
0
Err:522

1,521,878
0
Err:522
529,764
454,501
0
517,438
0
Err:522

1,870,526
350,000
Err:522
415,058
454,501
Err:522
635,979
500,000
Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

762,323
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522

Receipts - Disbursements
BOP Cash Balance
EOP Cash Balance
(1) Equal to 55 percent of sales in period (T+2).
(2) Equal to purchases in period (T-1).

762,323

January
3,400,956

February
3,616,031

Exhibit 10
KOTA FIBRES, LTD.
Forecasted T-Accounts Supporting Financial Statements (in Rupees)
January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September October November December

1. Schedule of Accounts Receivable

Beginning of Period
Plus Sales
Less Collections, Last Month (1)
Less Collections, Month before Last (2)
End of Period
(1) 40% of sales in period (T-1).
(2) 60% of sales in period (T-2).

2,672,729
2,616,120
885,456
1,630,044
2,773,349

2,773,349
2,892,825
1,046,448
1,328,184
3,291,542

3,291,542
4,447,404
1,157,130
1,569,672
5,012,144

5,012,144
8,804,250
1,778,962
1,735,695
10,301,737

10,301,737
13,885,560
3,521,700
2,668,442
17,997,155

17,997,155
17,588,376
5,554,224
5,282,550
24,748,757

24,748,757
16,315,533
7,035,350
8,331,336
25,697,603

25,697,603
8,572,824
6,526,213
10,553,026
17,191,189

17,191,189
5,031,000
3,429,130
9,789,320
9,003,739

9,003,739
4,447,404
2,012,400
5,143,694
6,295,049

6,295,049
3,531,762
1,778,962
3,018,600
5,029,249

5,029,249
2,767,050
1,412,705
2,668,442
3,715,152

1,249,185
2,446,072
540,958
1,928,080
2,308,135

2,308,135
4,842,338
831,665
2,132,012
5,850,125

5,850,125
7,637,058
1,646,395
3,277,737
11,855,841

11,855,841
9,673,607
2,596,600
6,488,732
17,637,315

17,637,315
8,973,543
3,289,026
10,233,658
19,666,227

19,666,227
4,715,053
3,051,005
12,962,633
14,469,652

14,469,652
2,767,050
1,603,118
12,024,548
6,815,272

6,815,272
2,446,072
940,797
6,318,171
3,883,970

3,883,970
1,942,469
831,665
3,707,847
2,950,257

2,950,257
1,521,878
660,439
3,277,737
1,854,837

1,854,837
1,870,526
517,438
2,602,909
1,639,892

1,639,892
1,988,817
635,979
2,039,316
2,225,373

759,535
2,446,072
1,591,054
1,614,553

1,614,553
4,842,338
2,446,072
4,010,818

4,010,818
7,637,058
4,842,338
6,805,539

6,805,539
9,673,607
7,637,058
8,842,088

8,842,088
8,973,543
9,673,607
8,142,024

8,142,024
4,715,053
8,973,543
3,883,534

3,883,534
2,767,050
4,715,053
1,935,531

1,935,531
2,446,072
2,767,050
1,614,553

1,614,553
1,942,469
2,446,072
1,110,950

1,110,950
1,521,878
1,942,469
690,358

690,358
1,870,526
1,521,878
1,039,007

1,039,007
1,988,817
1,870,526
1,157,298

11,851,967
Err:522
0
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
500,000
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
500,000
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
500,000
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
500,000
Err:522

0
Err:522
0
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
0
Err:522

Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522

10,095,646
0
0 10,095,646
84,130
1,484,278
1,568,408
(1,484,278) 8,527,237

10,095,646
0
10,095,646
84,130
1,652,539
8,443,107

10,095,646
350,000
10,445,646
87,047
1,739,586
8,706,060

10,445,646
0
10,445,646
87,047
1,826,633
8,619,013

10,445,646
0
10,445,646
87,047
1,913,680
8,531,966

10,445,646
350,000
10,795,646
89,964
2,003,643
8,792,002

10,795,646
0
10,795,646
89,964
2,093,607
8,702,038

10,795,646
0
10,795,646
89,964
2,183,571
8,612,075

10,795,646
350,000
11,145,646
92,880
2,276,451
8,869,194

11,145,646
0
11,145,646
92,880
2,369,332
8,776,314

11,145,646
0
11,145,646
92,880
2,462,212
8,683,434

11,145,646
350,000
11,495,646
95,797
2,558,009
8,937,637

2. Schedule of Inventories
Beginning of Period
Plus Purchases (1)
Plus Labor
Less Shipments (COGS)
End of Period
(1) Equal to 55 percent of sales in period (T+2).

1,591,054

3. Schedule of Accounts Payable

Beginning of Period
+ Purchases (1)
- Payments (2)
End of Period
(1) Equal to 55 percent of sales in period (T+2).
(2) Equal to purchases in period (T-1).

4. Schedule of Shareholder's Equity

Beginning of Period
Plus Net Profit
Less Dividends
End of Period

5. Schedule of Accrued Taxes

Beginning of Period
Plus Monthly Tax Expense (@ 30%)
Less Quarterly Tax Payments
End of Period

6. Schedule of Property, Plant and Equipment

Beginning Gross PP&E
Plus Capital Expenditures
Ending Gross PP&E
Monthly Depreciation Expense
Less Cumulative Depr'n.
Ending Net PP&E

Exhibit 11
KOTA FIBRES, LTD.

Assumptions
Debt Balance Summary
Jan '01
Err:522
June '01
Err:522
Dec '01
Err:522
Ratio of:
Income Tax/Profit Before Tax
Excise Tax/Sales
This Month Collections of Last Month's Sales
This Month Collections of Month-before-Last Sales
Purchases/ Sales two months later
Wages/Purchases
Annual Operating Expenses/Annual Sales
Capital Expenditures (every third month)
Interest Rate on Borrowings (and deposits)
Minimum Cash Balance
Depreciation/Gross PP&E (per year)
(per month)
Dividends Paid (every third month)

30%
15%
40%
60%
55%
34%
6.00%
350,000
14.5%
750,000
10%
0.83%
500,000

Exhibit 12
KOTA FIBRES, LTD.

Trend of Certain Financal Accounts by Month

January
30,000,000

25,000,000

20,000,000

Sale
s
A/R

15,000,000

Inv
A/P

10,000,000

5,000,000

n/p

February

November

December

4,447,404

8,804,250

13,885,560

17,588,376

16,315,533

8,572,824

5,031,000

4,447,404

3,531,762

2,767,050

3,291,542

5,012,144

10,301,737

17,997,155

24,748,757

25,697,603

17,191,189

9,003,739

6,295,049

5,029,249

3,715,152

5,850,125

11,855,841

17,637,315

19,666,227

14,469,652

6,815,272

3,883,970

2,950,257

1,854,837

1,639,892

2,225,373

1,614,553

4,010,818

6,805,539

8,842,088

8,142,024

3,883,534

1,935,531

1,614,553

1,110,950

690,358

1,039,007

1,157,298

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Err:522

Sales

2,616,120

2,892,825

A/R

2,773,349

Inv

2,308,135

A/P
n/p

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October