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The
Review
VOLUME
XLIII
of
Economics
and
Statistics
AUGUST I96I
NUMBER
IN
2 26
Country
United States
Canada
3. New Zealand
4. Australia
Year of
Census
Average wage a
(Current
dollars)
Number of
industries
used b
i.
I954
384I
24
2.
1954
3226
23
I955/56
I980
22
I955/56
I926
24
I954
I455
24
I954
1393
22
1952
II82
17
I951
I059
24
I953
924
24
I 953
900
I5
I95I
524
21
1950
5I9
24
5.
Denmark
Norway
7. Puerto Rico
8. United Kingdom
9. Colombia
i o. Ireland
6.
I I.
I2.
Mexico
Argentina
1953
476
23
International comparisons are probably the I4. Japan
El Salvador
445
i6
I951
best available source of information on the ef- I 5. Brazil
1949
436
I0
1952
6
384
fect of varying factor costs on factor inputs. i6. S. Rhodesia
17.
Ceylon
1952
26I
I I
The observed range of variation in the relative i8.
India
1953
24I
I7
costs of labor and capital is of the order of 30: I, I9. Iraq
2
2I3
I954
which is much greater than that observed in a
a Unweighted average of wages in industries in
sample.
b Industry data are given in the appendix.
single country over any period for which data
are available. The observationson factor inputs
Industries. Data were collected for all indusrefer to a specific industry or set of technological operationsrather than to the differentindus- tries at the three-digit level of the United Natries conventionally employed in cross-section tions International Standard Industrial Classistudies within a single country. Finally, taking fication having sufficient observations (at least
io). The 24 industries analyzed are listed in
This function and its properties were arrived at indeTable 2 and defined in the ISIC. There is, of
pendently by Solow and Arrow.
13.
227
course, considerable variation in the composition of output within a given industrial category
among countries at different income levels,
which cannot be allowed for here.
Labor inputs and costs. Labor inputs are
Regression
equations
isic
No.
Industry
Log a
Standard
error
b
Sb
Coeff. of
deter.
R2
Test of Significanceon b
Degrees of
freedom
Confidencelevel for
b different from I
202
Dairy products
.4I9
.72I
.073
.92I
I4
99%?
203
.355
.855
.075
.9IO
I2
90
.429
.909
.o96
.855
I4
Bakery products
Sugar
.304
g900
.o65
.927
I4
8o
.43I
.78I
.753
.JI5
90
.I5I
.790
.629
II
*564
I3
.296
.809
.o68
.892
I6
.270
.483
.785
.86o
.894
.965
.868
.857
.83I
.839
.895
8o
98
99
95
95
.273
.9I9
.o98
205
206
207
220
23I
232
250
Tobacco
Textile -
Knitting mills
Lumber and wood
.279
.o64
.9I5
I3
.o66
.9IO
i6
.042
.952
I4
.IOI
.858
I4
.056
.940
I4
260
Furniture
.226
27I
.478
280
.284
.460
33I
Basic chemicals
Fats and oils
Miscellaneous chemicals
Clay products
332
Glass
.285
.999
.o84
.92I
II
333
334
Ceramics
.2IO
.90I
.044
.974
IO
95
Cement
.I49
.770
IO
.8II
.05I
.30I
.902
370
Electric machinery
.344
.870
.936
.886
.897
.804
II
350
.560
.363
.920
34I
29I
3II
3I2
3I9
342
.292
.5I5
.370
I.OII
.062
.070
.090
.059
.J20
.o88
.ii8
.92I
I2
.898
.869
.938
.878
I4
95
95
95
12
90
14
90
II
99
*
II
I2
228
= c + dW +
(ia)
(ib)
Both functions give good fits to the observations, the logarithmic form being somewhat better. The results of the latter regression are
shown in Table 2.4 It is apparent from the
small standard errors of b and the high coefficient of determination k2 that the fit is relatively good. In 20 out of 24 industries, over 85
per cent of the variation in labor productivity
is explained by variation in wage rates alone.5
C. Implied Properties of the
Production Function
The regression analysis provides an important basis for the derivation of a more general
production function: the finding that a linear
logarithmic function provides a good fit to the
observations of wages and labor inputs. The
theoretical analysis of the next section will
therefore start from this assumption.
It is shown in section II that under the assumptions made here the coefficient b is equal
to the elasticity of substitution between labor
and capital. It is therefore of interest to determine the number of industries in which the
elasticity is significantly different from o or i,
the values most commonly assumed for it. Re4 Independently of this study, J. B. Minasian has fitted
equation (ib) to U. S. interstate data for a number of industries in "Elasticities of Substitution and Constant-Output
Demand Curves for Labor," Journal of Political Economy,
(Note added in proof.)
June I96I, 26I-270.
5 For the economy as a whole, the level of wages depends
on the level of labor productivity, but for a given industry
the labor input per unit of output is adjusted to the prevailing wage level in the country with relatively small deviations
due to the relative profitability of the given industry.
It
(4a)
229
fJ'(f - xf')
xf"
(6)
=
where A is a constant of integration. Returning
to the original variables we get the one-param- That is to say, if the relation between V/L and
eter family of production functions
w arises from profit-maximizationalong a conV = Lf (K/L; A).
(4b) stant-returns-to-scale production function, the
Of course for (4) to do duty as a production elasticity of the resulting curve is simply the
function it should have positive marginal pro- elasticity of substitution. Information about aductivities for both inputs and be subject to the can be obtained, under these assumptions, from
usual diminishing returns when factor-propor- observation of the joint variation of output per
tions vary. An elementary calculation shows unit of labor and the real wage.
We may also observe another simple and inthat these conditions are equivalent to requirteresting
relation associated with production
ing that f' (x) > o and f"(x) < o. The latter
functions
homogeneous of degree one. As has
condition is also sufficient to permit the inverbeen
seen
the marginal productivity of capital
sion of (2 ) . Geometrically these conditions
is
a
decreasing
function of x, the capital-labor
state that output per unit of labor is an increasratio,
while
the
marginal productivity of labor
ing function of the input of capital per unit of
is
of
course
an
increasing
function. Hence, for
labor, convex from above, just as the curve is
competitive
markets,
the
gross
rental, r, measnormally drawn. In addition one would desire
ured
with
output
as
numefraire,
is a decreasing
that f (x) > o for x > o. All these requirements
function
of
the
wage
rate.
More
specifically,
should hold for at least some value of A.
we
may
differentiate
the
r = f' (x)
relations,
This way of generating production functions
and
(2)
to
yield,
brings to light a connection with the elasticity
dr
dw
of substitution which does not seem to have
- xf" -f
= -xf"
dx = f"(x); dw=
dx
been noticed in the literature, although closely
related results were obtained by Hicks and so that
others (see Allen [2], 373). The slight differdr (dr ) (dw
L
I
ence has to do with the treatment of product
dw
dx
dx
x
K'
price. Let s stand for the marginal rate of substitution between K and L (the ratio of the whence the elasticity of the rate of return with
marginal product of L to that of K). Then the respect to the wage rate is,
elasticity of substitution c- is defined simply as
w dr
wL
the elasticity of K/L with respect to s, along an
r dw
rK '
isoquant. For constant returns to scale it turns
i.e., the ratio of labor's share to capital's share
out,6 in our notation,
in value added.
f'(f
Xf')
(5)
230
(9)
dy
al/b y -
yl/b
y(i
al/b x
ayP)
a-'/b
and P
for
P+
y[8KP
(I2)
(I_8)]-1/p
+ (i -8)L-P]
-'/P
(I3)
i,
a- =
'2
21I
(I4)
Dy/DL
k(y)
write this
dy
dL
L
k(y)-y
and integrate to get
L = Cg(y)
('5)
232
V = LG
H(C(K),L)
(6)
(DH/DC)
(dC/dK).
P
Dv
Hence
(I7)
DK
so that C/C' represents the "present value" of
the stream of profits, discounted by the marginal productivity of capital.
The argument leading to (I6) provides us
with an empirical test of the hypothesis of constant returns to scale. As we have noted, the
latter is equivalent to C(K)/K being constant.
But from (I5),
C
LI
K g(y)
xg(y)
(8)
(-k
(I
ayP)-/P
('9)
is a constant.
2.
Capital and the rate of return. It should
not be overlooked that up to the previous paragraph our production functions have appeared
only as rationalizationsof the observed relation
between y and w under assumptions about competition. We can not be sure that they do in
fact describe production relations (i.e., holding
among V, L, and K), and it is indeed intrinsically impossible to know this without data on
K, or equivalently on the rate of return. Should
such data be available, however, we can perform some further very strong tests of the whole
approach.
Suppose we have observations on K for a
particular industry across several countries.
Then we know x as well as y and we can test
directly whether our deduced production function (3) or (4) does in fact hold for some value
of A. If it does, then this provides an estimate
of A and a stringent external check on the
validity of our approach.
This is merely a rephrasing of our test for
constant returns, to emphasize that it really
goes somewhat further; if the hypothesis of
constant returns to scale is accepted, so is the
validity of the implied production function.
3. Neutral variations in efficiency. From the
argument leading to (io) and (ii),
it is seen
that the parametersa and p are derived directly
from our empirical estimates of a and b in section I. But ,B is a constant of integration and
can be determined only from observed data including measurements of K or x. Now the test
quantity c in (i9) depends on a and p, but
not on ,3, on the assumption that /Bis constant
across countries. Failure of data to pass the
stringent test based on (I9) may be read as
suggesting that ,8 varies across countries while
a and p are the same. From (i i), this is equivalent to the statement that the efficiency of use
K Al+P
I8
(20)
and
2/a /=/(I
8)
(r)
(K )l+P
(2I)
233
CES production function is intrinsically difficult to fit directly to observations on output and
inputs because of the non-linear way in which
the parameter p enters. But, provided technical
4. Factor intensity and the CES production change is neutral or uniform, we may use the
f unction. From (20) we see that:
convenient factor-price properties of the funcw
tion to analyze time series and to estimate the
K
X= ~=(~Y.(2
oa) magnitude of technical progress.
L
I-S
rJ
2a
A uniform technical change is a shift in the
Now imagine two industries each with a CES
production function leaving invariant the marproduction function although with different
ginal rate of substitution at each K/L ratio.
parameters,and buying labor and capital in the
From (I3) and (20), uniform technical progsame competitive market. Then
ress affects only the efficiency parameter y, and
81 Aal
X1
W
82
not the substitution or distribution parameters,
A-2
X2
I-81
wyW( r2)
I -82
Aa-2
p or o-.
(22)
i-8
( K\P
that
234
capital intensity depends both on o- and 8 (instead of only on 8, as in the Cobb-Douglas function), and we also allow for differences in efficiency among sectors. The corresponding explanation of price differences is therefore more
complex.
[ (w/r)l]J
Xl
(24)
The price of a commodity in our model is
x2
(wlr) 2
defined as the direct labor and capital cost per
Thus an estimate of o- may be made. Note fur- unit of value added:
ther that, since y does not enter into (20a), the
1 R
estimate is valid even if the efficiencyparameter
.x
P=Wl+Rk=Wl
i+-(
has changed between the two observations, provided the distribution and substitution param- where W and R are wages and return on capital
eters have not, that is, provided that techin money terms (rather than using output as
nological change is neutral.12
numeraire), I = L/V = i/y, and k = K/V.
If the hypothesis of neutrality is acceptable,
Substituting from (I 2) for the labor coeffiwe may try to trace the shifts in the efficiency
cient
gives:
parameter over time. One way to do this is to
go back to (8). From V/L = awb and the defi~~~~~~r
w
x
P
8) 1/P
+
(27)
[[8x-P
(I
nitions of the parameters a,o-,8, and y, one calw* + I
7Y
culates first that
in which the price of a commodity depends on
wL
I'1
wL _
= aaWl-of
VJ)Wl-b
factor costs and capital intensity. For a given
=( I S)ay
production function, the ratio of prices in coun.
W
(25)
Two possibilities now present themselves. For tries A and B can be stated as a function of the
given values of the parameters o- and 8, one factor prices only by using (2oa) to eliminate x:
F
PA
PB
WA
-1B
WB 'YA
+S-
~~~~~~~~~~~1
a
WAV
/1A1'a
(2iY
__
~;-)-I
-FA
a-)
i28
(28
can use (25) to compute the implied time-path The empirical significance of this result is disof y. Or alternatively one may assume a con- cussed in section IV-C.
stant geometric rate of technological change, so
that y(t) = y, io\t, and fit
III. Tests of the CES ProductionFunction
The CES function may describe production
log (W) = [ log (I -8) + (a-I)
log y0]
relations in an industry with varying degrees of
+ (I--a)
logw + A(U-I)t
(26)
uniformity across countries. Two tests were
to estimate o- and X. We return to this subject outlined in section II-D that enable us to make
a tentative choice among three hypotheses: (i)
in section V.
6. Variation in commodity prices among all three parameters the same in all countries,
countries. The accepted explanation of the vari- (ii) same o- and one other parameter the same,
ation in commodity prices among countries is (iii) only o- the same. The evidence presented
based on differences in capital intensity and in section A below rejects the first hypothesis
factor costs. In our production function the but supports the second. Furthermore, there
appears to be some uniformity in the efficiency
levels of different industries in the same coun12 This method of estimating the elasticity of substitutry; this possibility is analyzed in section B.
tion has been used by Kravis [9], 940-4I.
235
TESTS OF THE
CES
PRODUCTION FUNCTION a
23I.
Basic Chemicals
31I.
4387
3769
*I984
*I740
I224
*I5I3
2920
.0526
I.72
4754
.2083
2.3I
Canada
2708
.0403
i.i6
4036
.2II5
2.0I
874
287
.2022
..
.I902
I.44
0.55
563
.2373
276
*I543
o.63
320
.2200
.70
.5I
350.
Metal Products
c
United States
United Kingdom
Japan
India
34I.
664
.I9II
450
.2686
2.96
43I4
*I359
2.35
2.13
0.62
3507
.I07I
I.37
0.49
0.53
422
.2245
0.3I
United States
Canada
United Kingdom
Japan
India
Mean
Coefficient of Variationd
at
'Yi
fi/a,
at
i.oi6
3.283
.77I
3.289
.767
.767
'Yi
fi/ai
'i
at,
I.I55
I.352
.536
.575
I-5I4
.602
.880
..
I.833
..
.647
..
.428
.
2.785
.734
.567
I.46I
.6io
.638
.559
.584
2.967
.748
.44I
1495
.599
.839
I..
I.564
I.765
.265
1.72
I-733
I-378
.857
.687
fi/a,
aj
'Yi
I.039
.509
I-736
i.i8o
.541
I.292
.968
.6I9
.492
.65 7
.598
3.55 %
.754
.590
5.85
I.02I
*5I4
3.50 %
et
at
pis
United States
Canada
.462
.452
'534
.233
.765
.6iI
.242
.796
United Kingdom
Japan
India
410
.43 I
..
.439
.62I
..
Mean
Coefficient of Variationd
4.I7%o
.790
..
.639
ii.85%o
.297
.298
.268
II.I9%
.826
.883
.8I8
8.04%
6 i
at
,8
.536
.462
.336
.593
.448
.480
.529
.458
.444
.579
.648
.66i
.603
6.77%
ai
.343
.442
.405
I2.84%
..
.53 5
.5I8
.482
.509
77-4I%
3-79%
(V-7m)rL/r.
236
and 3-C by computing the coefficient of variation for each parameterin each industry.
Of these three possibilities, the constancy of
8, implying neutral variations in efficiency, is
much the closest approximation while there is
little to choose between the other two. For the
four industries taken together, the coefficient
of variation in 8 is only 3.6 per cent, while it is
more than twice as large for the other two parameters. We therefore tentatively accept equation (I2) or (I3) as the basic form of the CES
production function. Constant c- and 8 characterize an industry in all countries, and differences in efficiency are assumed to be concentrated in y,.
The conclusion that observations on the same
industry in differentcountries do not come from
the same production function is so important
that it should be tested in a way that does not
depend on our particular choice of a production
function. If in fact all countries fell on the same
production function, homogeneous of degree
one, then a high wage rate must arise from a
high capital-labor ratio, which must, in turn,
imply a low rate of return on capital. From
Table 3 we see there is by and large an inverse
correlation between wages and rates of return,
but the variation in the latter seems much
smaller than is consistent with the wide variations in wage rates. This impression can be
confirmed quantitatively with the aid of formula (7).
rli
',?)
23I
3II
34I
350
I.g9o
.220
.269
.225
ii
.244
.667
I.2I3
I.749
(WA )e
(29)
WB
237
(y -
.323
log w
-.039
R2 = .82.
(.043)
):
Positive Residuals
Efficiency
Commodity price
Exchange rate
TABLE 4.-
Negative Residuals
VARIATION
IN
(V/L)
BY COUNTRY a
Number of Industries
Average Averageb
V
()
United States
Canada
New Zealand
Australia
Denmark
Norway
Puerto Rico
United Kingdom
Colombia
Ireland
Mexico
Argentina
Japan
Salvador
Brazil
Southern Rhodesia
Ceylon
India
Iraq
a
b
(%)
(2)
Between
Above +5% and
+5%
(3)
-5%
I0
II
(4)
384I
+5
3226
i980
+5
+4
9
7
I926
-I2
I455
-8
3
6
I393
II82
-9
+22
I059
-II
924
+I4
i6
900
-i8
II
0
2
Below
- 5s%io
(5)
3
3
8
20
i6
I5
8
I9
6
I2
I9
I2
7
9
524
+3
5I9
+I0
476
+7
445
436
384
+33
-i8
26I
+7
24I
-23
i6
2I3
+I
I2
9
Io
Residual Ay = y
derived from Table
Arithmetic mean of (Ay/y).
2.
238
(260)
.8i4
(.045)
.692
(.035)
Eq. (8a)
.780
(.Io4)
.755
(.039)
= a + b log()
(8a)
= (WA/WB)t,
then a = (b-f)/(i+f)
if b
United Kingdom
66.46
60.30
Denmark
89.4I
77-I3
Norway
94.3 7
89.90
Argentina
223.00
139.0I
Brazil
97.20
145.90
Colombia
I82.60
2 25.70
Mexico
I75.80
I24-58
Data are taken from Internationaler Vergleich der Preis
fir die Lebenshaltung, Ergainzungsheft Nr. 4 Zu Reiche 9,
Einzelhandelspreise in Ausland, Verlag W. Kohlhammer
GMBH, Stuttgart und Mainz, Jahrgang, I959. The original
data are in deutschmark purchasing power equivalents, from
which the implied prices indexes were derived by taking the
United States as a base. The exchange rates used in converting the prices to dollars were the ones that were used in
section I.
239
tual difference from section III is in the definition of capital, which here includes only fixed
capital. The labor cost in Japan makes allowance for the varying proportions of unpaid
family workers in each sector. The variation in
relative factor costs shown in column (4) is
due entirely to differences in labor costs, since
the relative cost of capital is assumed to be the
same for all sectors.
The values of C- derived by this method vary
considerably more than those derived from
wage and labor inputs alone in section I. However, for the I2 manufacturingsectors in which
both are available, there is a significant correlation of .55 between the two estimates.'8 The
Comparisons
US..-Japanese
omission of working capital provides a plausible explanation of this difference, since the
little evidence available indicates that stocks
of materials and goods in process are generally
as high in low-wage as in high-wage countries.
The elasticity of substitution between working
capital and labor is therefore probably much
less than unity. This correction is particularly
importantin trade and in manufacturingsectors
having small amounts of fixed capital.
Since these two-country estimates are reasonably consistent with our earlier findings for
the manufacturing sectors, we will tentatively
accept them as indicative of elasticities of sub(24):
stitution in non-manufacturing sectors, with
qualifications for the omission of working capirj
(K/L) j
Xi
tal. Here the most notable results are the relaWu
XU (K/L) u
tively high elasticities in agriculture and minJ
ru
ing, and the low elasticity in electric power.'9
where subscripts indicate the country. This In trade, the omission of working capital probmethod of estimation has the advantage of uti- ably leads to a serious overestimate of the elaslizing direct observations of capital as well as ticity of substitution, while for other services
labor and of being independent of the varying we have no comparable data. The evidence of
value of the efficiencyparameter y.
relative prices, however, suggests an elasticity
The data for this calculation are taken from for personal services, at least, of substantially
input-output studies in the two countries and less than unity.
are summarizedin Table 5. The main concep"7The compilation of these data on a comparable basis
has been done by Gary Bickel, who is conducting an extensive analysis of the relation between factor proportions and
relative prices in the two countries. Further discussion of
the data is given by Bickel [41.
18 In some sectors the correspondence between the industries covered is very imperfect because the earlier estimates are on a 3-digit basis and cover only part of the 2digit class.
19 The transport sector involves a very large difference
in product mix, and the reliability of the estimate is doubtful.
240
CHART I.-C.E.S.
PRODUCTIONS FUNCTIONS
L
LABOR
x-JAPANESE FACTOR PROPORTIONS
LU.S. FACTOR PROPORTIONS
\D
PARAMETERS
/ |
~~
~~~~~~~~~~~A
A I.I5
15
~~~~~~E
~~~~~~~~
/
A
A
TABLE
x=2.0
C
D
.8
.8
.4
6.-
B
C
D
E
i.O
COMBINATIONS
OF cy AND
Examples
.25
.25
.2
.8
.05
ILLUSTRATIVE
.2
.8
.8
.2
.4
.05
.8
x~~~-
CAPITAL
TABLE 5.-
Sector
No.
Xu
XJ
(I)
(2)
ParametersEstimated
a0
(5)
(6)
Regression
Estimate
of a
(7)
Primary Production
OI, 02, 03
04
Agriculture
Io
Coal mining
Metal mining
Petroleum & natural gas
Non-metallic minerals
I9.5I
Fishing
I2
3.24
4.87
I3.34
.367
.019
.490
.534
.566
.J52
.036
*I33
I.20
.94
.93
.396
.20I
.IIO
.093
.042
J107
I.4I
.2I5
.i82
40.57
.722
.oi8
.o96
I.7I
.265
IO-37
.777
.075
.III
i.i8
.260
.549
.374
.J03
.o6o
.8i
.286
5-II
.073
.o6I
.327
.82
Textiles
Apparel
Leather products
2.76
.340
.J23
.073
.93
.80
.J59
.8I
.329
.332
.07I
.42
.055
I.0I
J.90
.I89
.o98
.72
.05I
.86
3.58
.3I0
.o87
.054
.84
.i98
.87
27
Paper
7.3I
.528
.072
.099
I.I4
.204
28
3.45
.I43
.042
.072
I.2I
.092
.96
.87
30
3.73
3I
Chemicals
8.32
I3
I4,
I9
II
20,
232,
243
241,
242,
mill.
production
Processed food
22
23
25,
Manufacturing
Grain
205
29
26
5.36
.99
.332
I.I25
.o89
.o84
.I35
*I57
.094
.J5I
I.04
.550
.365
342
Petroleum products
Coal
Non-metal. min. prod.
Iron and steel
Non-ferrous metals
36, 37
Machinery
4.86
.469
38I
Shipbuilding
Transport equipment
4.76
5.oI
.477
.IOO
.094
.378
.075
.o83
321,
329
322,329
33
34I,
35
382
38.I8
.360
35.85
5.95
8.6o
I.895
II.45
I.I5I
.98
.90
.I47
.325
.I I3
I.35
*4I4
.070
.o84
I.08
.J97
.986
.JI5
.JOI
.II5
I.00
.273
.I23
I.I0
1.287
.o97
.o83
053
.93
.97
I.04
.9I
.i87
.85
.95
.85
I.0I
.87
I 74
.j69
5II
6i
7I
Transport
a SOURCES:
COlS. (I),
46.I3
5.93
I5.7I
.82
.228
.I64
.349
.o59
.079
I.I2
.I87
.3I6
.020
.io6
I.74
.I70
IO.50
.8I9
and (4) are taken from Bickel [4], based on U.S. and Japanese input-output materials; rjlru assumed to be 1.47 for all sectors.
(2),
Col. (5) is calculated from equation (33).
Col. (6) is calculated from equation (2oa).
Col. (7) aggregatedfrom Table 2 using the average proportionsof value added in the two countries as weights.
(Logarithmic Scale)
20 -CHEMICALS
L
TEXTILES
u10
0ON
APPAREL
FERR
METAL
MININ
<
METAL
gPOWER
AGIULTURE
2
X
FACTOR PROPORTIONS
/-U.S.
-JAPNESE
I.0
FACTOR PROPORTIONS
10
CAPITAL-LABOR
20
RATIO
log-.w
24I
242
3. -
LABOR
L2 [8Xj-P +
P
-1
] P
(I -8)
(33)
L2
K2
Yu
L3
K3
7. -
K RATIO
L
Sector
Primiary
LL-2-2I
CAPITAL
Agriculture
IO
Coal mining
Metal mining
I5
14,
Efficiency Ratio
LI
L.
.083
.I66
*468
3.740
.245
1.724
.II7
.2 79
.876
.3
J143
.326
.583
.56
.083
.339
.25
.I45
.332
.44
.123
.291
.42
L3
J/lyu
Production
OI-03
12
K2 K3 K1
-1
P+ (I
Yu
JAPANESEK RATIO
L1 [8x
Non-metallicmin.
.J3
.I4
Manufcturing
321,
329
322,
329
Coal products
35
Non-metallic min.
products
.122
Iron and steel
.o83
20-22
23
24I,
242,
27
3I
33
341,
29
.047
.112
.33 2
.3
.093
.269
.35
.095
.077
.203
.2I5
.150
.859
.17
.153
.17I
.90
1.23
.95
342
L4W.
L2= Japanese labor input for the same output at U.S. efficiency
2 43
and use it to construct curves of constant relative prices (isoprice curves). As indicated in
section II-D-6, prices in our analysis refer only
to the direct cost of labor and capital. Three
such curves are shown in Chart 4. Curve I
CHART 4. -
1.8
EFFECTS OF
CIllrIE
1.6
LOWER PRICES IN
HIGH-WAGE COUNTRY
14 -
1.2xA
COMPARISONS
1.0
xB
.8
OF:
I -JAPAN-U.S.
\II-JAPAN-US.
M
II\EUROPE-US.
pB rB
P
tA
A4
.333
.17 7
.3 33
xD
C;x
HIGHER
PRICES IN
HIGH-WAGE
COUNTRY
.2-
.1
.2
.6
.8
1.0
I.42.
Eu-
prices.
244
A-B-C, variation in the elasticity of substitution seems to be more important than variation
in 8 in determiningrelative prices.
Actual price differences between Japan and
the United States are affected as much by the
cost of purchased inputs as by the value added
component. Calculations for the ten manufacturing sectors in Table 7 based on (28) give a
range of direct costs in Japan of .3 to .95 of the
q=
245
-8
(36)
where,
XI =
q (K )IPxt
x2
K= (K)
(36a)
As in the analysis of the international comparisons, the strictest test would be the constancy
of the left-hand side of (36), which would imply an exact fit and simultaneously give an estimate of 8. In the absence of strict constancy,
we can estimate 8/( i-8)
as the average,
XX2; this yields the estimate, 8= .5I9.29
If we measure time in years from I929, the
value of ao was -.o8o, so that the value of yo
is .584. The production function for United
is given by,
States, non-farm output, I929-49,
.756
V = .584 (IOI83)t (.5I9 K+ .48i L- .756)-1-322
(37)
We have tested this production function
against actual output; the fit appears satisfactory. Out of 4I years, the prediction error is
not more than 4 per cent of the predicted value
in 22 years and not more than 8 per cent in 3I.
The maximum errors in prediction were - I3.3
per cent (I933)
and +IO.7 per cent (I909).
It is further significant that all five of the
years in which actual output fell short of predicted by more than 8 per cent were the depression years, I930-34.
This is reasonable on
theoretical grounds; the immobility created by
severe unemployment of both capital and labor
causes inefficiency in the utilization of those
resources that are employed (for a development of this argument, see Arrow [31 ). If the
depression years had been excluded we might
have expected a still better fit.
antilog(?
B. Relative Shares and the
Capital-LaborRatio
Another test, with less satisfactory results,
is that given by (23). In logarithmic form, the
ratio of labor's to capital's share is related to
the capital-labor ratio by:
If we let y = yo (io)t
246
log( W ) = log(I-8)
log
(38)
which implies an elasticity of substitution slightly greater than i. The standard error of estimate of p is .o98, so that the hypothesis of a
wL/rK = (wL/V)/[i
(wL/V)].
A. Findings
We have produced some evidence that the
elasticity of substitution between capital and
labor in manufacturing may typically be less
than unity. There are weaker indications that
in primary production this conclusion is reversed. Although our original evidence comes
from an analysis of the relationship between
wages and value added per unit of labor, we
have interpreted it by introducing a new class
of production functions, more flexible and (we
think) more realistic than the standard ones.
Although we began our empirical work on the
naive hypothesis that observationswithin a given
industry but for differentcountries at about the
same time can be taken as coming from a common production function, we find subsequently
that this hypothesis cannot be maintained. But
we get reasonably good results when we replace
it by the weaker, but still meaningful, assumption that international differences in efficiency
are approximatelyneutral in their incidence on
capital and labor. A closer analysis of international differences in efficiency leads us to
suggest that this factor may have much to do
with the pattern of comparative advantage in
internationaltrade.
Finally, our formulation contributes something to the much-discussed question of functional shares. If, on the average, elasticities of
substitution are less than unity, the share of
the rapidly-growing factor, capital, in national
product should fall. This is what has actually
occurred. But in the CES production function
it is possible that increases in real wages be offset by neutral technological progress in their
effect on relative shares.
B. Speculation
In his original work on what has since come
to be known as the "Leontief scarce-factorparadox," Professor Leontief [iO] advanced tenta-
(I6)
2.
C. Unsettled Questions
49I-500.
June
1960
(mimeog.)
7. G. H. Hardy, J. E. Littlewood, and G. P6lya, Inequalities (Cambridge, England, I934).
8. L. Johansen, "Rules of Thumb for the Expansion
of Industries in a Process of Economic Growth,"
Econometrica, xxviii (I960), 258-7I.
9. I. B. Kravis, "Relative Income Shares in Fact and
Theory," American Economic Review, XLIX (I959),
9 I 7-49.
Io.
i i.
W. W. Leontief,
I 2.
"Domestic
Production
and For-
egn Trade: The American Capital Position Reexamined," Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society. 97 (953),
33 I-49.
W. A. Lewis, "Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor," The Manchester School,
XXII
247
(1954),
I39-9I.
248
I 5.
LXV (1956),
I6.
I 7.
65-94.
, "Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function," this REVIEW, XL (I958),
4I3.
"
"A Skeptical Note on the Constancy of
Relative Shares," American Economic Review,
XLVIII (1958),
6I8-3I.
I8. T. W. Swan, "Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation," Economic Record, XXXII (1956),
3I 2-20.
334-6I.
APPENDIX
INTERNATIONAL DATA ON LABOR INPUTS AND WAGE RATES
Industry
cn
CD~~~~~~~~~~~~~b
202
Country
i.
2.
United
Canada
L/V
States
(Ig54)
(I954)
6. Norway (1954)
7. United Kingdom
8. Ireland (I953)
(I95I)
Brazil (I949)
I2. Mexico (I95I)
I3.
Argentina (1950)
I4. El Salvador (IgsI)
I5. Southern Rhodesia
206
205
$cL
L/V
$cL
LIV
$co
L/V
0-I472
3863
O.I203
0.2224
2503
O.I002
3906
3403
0.3679
0.3347
i68o
0.264I
I846
0.3600
I4I8
0.3348
I503
0.3073
o.6467
1343
0.3625
II95
3833
0.I449
2956
0.0903
o.i860
2751
O.I859
2254
O.I254
3955
3I38
0.2003
2053
0.34IO
i604
0.23II
I85I
0.2638
i886
1715
0.3758
I3I4
0.3339
0.3735
I2I4
0.2522
0.2562
I9I6
I657
0.3I70
0.5077
I228
0.5472
I09I
0.4932
I503
0.3 775
0.4964
III0
972
0.5885
76I
9IO
I234
937
207
L/V
O.I256
0.50I9
0.3I80
0.3480
203
$CL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
cn
bo
0.9270
0.3450
965
484
o.6469
0.5350
$L
I495
846
857
IOI5
0.4563
865
0.3II0
0.67I0
I637
825
0.2090
653
o.6460
595
364
466
0.682I
340
0.8I90
503
I.7532
353
0.634I
0.5I45
524
o-6507
0.5647
526
o.8525
I78
I.2626
398
I.gI85
253
236
0.2068
2.4903
72I
I.8200
854
i i.
Iraq (1954)
Ceylon (1952)
i8. Japan (I953)
I9. India (953)
o.6i88
(1952)
0.7437
495
396
0.5388
501
0.5040
585
495
0.7294
536
o.8475
402
0.5960
4I2
I.8I50
236
2.o870
I63
0.5920
501
0.9472
39I
o.66o6
2.I500
i65
5-I523
46I
98
0.7255
o.6255
68i
i6.
I7.
I53
SUBSTITUTION
CAPITAL-LABOR
DATA
INTERNATIONAL
EFFICIENCY
AND ECONOMIC
ON LABOR INPUTS
RATES
AND WAGE
249
(continued)
Industry
.0~~~~~~~~b
I.
United States
2.
4.
Canada (I954)
New Zealand (I955/56)
Australia (I955/56)
5.
Denmark
6.
7.
8.
9.
Norway (1954)
United Kingdom
Ireland (I953)
Puerto Rico (1952)
Colombia (I953)
3.
io.
(I954)
(Ig54)
(1951)
Brazil (I949)
Mexico (I95I)
Argentina (1950)
El Salvador (I95I)
Southern Rhodesia
II.
I2.
I3.
14.
I5.
(I952)
Iraq (1954)
Ceylon (1952)
Japan (1953)
India (Ig53)
i6.
17.
i8.
I9.
$W
LIV
Country
$W
LIV
260
250
232
231
220
LIV
$W
LIV
$W
LIV
$W
0.0945
o.ii6I
2738
0.2250
2920
0.2360
2698
0.2026
2993
0.I706
3023
0.2349
2708
0.2779
2260
0.2I7I
2546
0.2385
35I5
2668
0.2346
I562
0.3053
I755
0.3985
I548
0.2655
2002
0.3678
I834
0.225I
i8io
0.3895
I559
0.3837
I487
0.35I7
I794
0.3857
0.4044
I2II
0.5024
I242
0.5004
II6g
0.4905
I3I2
0.5040
I7I3
I288
0.2888
I308
959
0.4993
o.5560
I342
0.629I
I078
0.68I3
0.47I4
o.6359
o.8288
I335
964
I073
0.5046
o.6408
o.8oi6
I02I
802
0.3500
I127
874
708
0.5228
0.2598
850
o.8037
0.6290
932
0.7690
983
845
0.3340
II57
0.63I0
364
546
o.86II
0.7968
0.80I2
523
I.2050
o.8032
542
I.II98
0.2960
826
0.3052
0.5943
O.I369
395
627
o.8673
0.2497
48I
0.82I2
0.2470
909
246
o.8702
343
46I
48I
456
2.I53I
215
I.I848
256
I.0530
i089
0.9334
70I
0.5302
0.923I
o.8584
2.320I
1.2190
226
1.3901
287
2.5320
276
252
2.0526
o.6240
8ii
86i
696
0.7200
738
347
358
367
342
298
0.94I5
448
0.90I7
471
I.0863
I.7825
464
377
I.2970
42I
I.9668
323
2.0220
228
i.8o56
292
2.3840
I88
Industry
cn
bO
n~~~~~~~~~ba1
280
27I
Country
Norway
6.
(1954)
$w
L/V
0.0945
O.I254
4507
L/V
O.I645
3-2
3II
29I
$cw
L/V
i2
$cw
$cw
L/V
$c
L/V
3868
0.08I4
4754
0.1037
382I
0.0924
4508
4262
0.2I04
2948
0.0973
4036
0.0793
3784
2570
O.I736
0.2655
3297
o.o998
2008
0.285I
20I4
O.I603
2433
O.I576
2234
O.I927
2334
0.3II8
I960
2025
0.234I
2060
O.I250
23I8
0.25I9
I428
0.3593
I683
0.3283
0.3363
I702
0.2477
I553
0.2438
I698
0.2338
I545
0.5350
I457
0.45I9
I39I
0.2028
I6I2
0.2668
I524
0.2503
o.6ooi
II54
0.4838
II55
0.4822
II09
0.364I
I25I
0.3559
I239
0.622I
I024
0.5746
903
0.4900
0.II30a
o.6820
I426a
0.3I90
0.4590
I450
0.45I0
0.3070
989
I388
0.2580
II78
I647
0.3050
I039
0.5840
59I
682
602
o.88oo
328
0.4208c
48I c
805
792
ii66
ii.
I2.
Brazil (I949)
Mexico (I95I)
o.6355a
0.383I
402'
676
0.5783
0.7880
o.8787b
43ob
0.3509
644
0.2I67
7I0
13.
I4.
0.40I6
0.9200
644
457
0.7697
0.7502
59I
624
0.7836
0.7764
572
0.5335
0.7I46
56i
424
I.I740
548
298
0.73I0
3I4
i5.
Argentina (I950)
El Salvador (9s5)
Southern Rhodesia
i6.
Iraq
I7.
i8.
Ceylon
1.3300
293b
647
o.8454
398
494
2.I8gOb
0.5077
I.III2
439
o.5868
I.3I90
277
3.0I00
i85
0.94IO
Japan
India
I9.
a
b
(1952)
(I954)
(1952)
(I953)
(953)
563
320
0.73I0
197
0.4460
507
2.2422
I57
250
0~~~~~~
0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Cd
00&.
3I9
Country
6. Norway (I954)
7. United Kingdom (1951)
8. Ireland (I953)
I I.
I2.
13.
14.
Is.
331
LIV
$W
0.0720
0.II20
0.2I8g
O.I87I
I906
0.2765
332
LIV
$w
4509
0.I7I2
3377
o.i6o6
3669
3I98
1790
0.2I26
0-335I
I575
0.4629
0.2468
1473
0.5024
0.3600
I059
0.4745
o.i68o
0.2740
LIV
334
333
$c
LIV
$w
O.I2 28
4179
0.I958
O.I926
3370
2I36
0.2457
2036
2066
0.2856
I329
0-4I42
0-3742
1484
0.5I55
0.594I
I358
II09
0.5477
io68
0.7666
I554
0.2800
8oo
o.568o
I79
0.7260
I094
I.0630
5I6
0.3290
968
o.6740
I-7452
1.5700
32I
o.6707
o.8646
493
370
1.9340
2.5310
I67
274
o.9660
5.4400
L/V
$w
3408
0-0752
o.o635
42i6
0.3I72
I775
o.o686
1932
0.3828
1894
0.2562
39I0
2503
207I
I416
0.4883
I320
0.2034
I738
II87
0.288I
0.2394
1569
I43I
783
0.2040
I227
I.2285
I.0480
328
0.2709
0.5443
467
i.8700
331
I46
3.0470
229
835
943
0.3668
748
0.5I93
o.6830
570
570
II84
440
630
58I
429
(1952)
Iraq (1954)
Ceylon (1952)
I8. Japan (1953)
I9. India (Ig53)
i6.
17.
o.8340
0.5270
I.0970
293
486
337
o.i693
o.8890
I025
3I9
Industry
341
Country
6.
7.
8.
9.
io.
Norway (I954)
United Kingdom (195I)
Ireland ( 953)
Puerto Rico (1952)
Colombia (I953)
Brazil ('949)
Mexico (I95I)
I3. Argentina (1950)
I4. El Salvador (I95I)
I5. Southern Rhodesia
342
LIV
$co
LIV
0.1266
4387
3769
O.III9
0.0768
O.I4I0
0.2340
0.2338
04
cS.
350
$W
4540
3955
2I90
0.2I73
2306
I656
0.29I8
0.4503
1568
0.2684
I224
0.3870
0.4199
ii68
0.4560
I526
370
LIV
$c
LIV
O.I332
4314
0-I3I4
4II9
O.I562
0.2639
3507
2I90
0.1579
0.3I22
3536
I856
0.235I
2I94
0.3268
I966
0.343I
I898
O.I775
I695
o.4006
144I
0.4272
I466
I648
0-4I42
1438
1208
0.5464
0.2800
979
1307
o.5640
879
0.5580
455
463
II.
I2.
i6.
I7.
i8.
I9.
0.4728
594
0.7920
59I
$w
0.5512
542
o.8747
2.7322
0.3266
I489
0.6226
1024
0.I370
0.4270
1535
972
0.5350
572
0.5537
643
6I9
o.6826
243
(1952)
Iraq (I954)
I.2866
2I0
Ceylon (1952)
Japan (1953)
0.7256
664
India (Ig53)
450
o.9860
d Refersto primaryironandsteel as well as primarynon-ferrous
metals.
0.5432
2.2000
62I
262
I.2388
422
o.8054
I-7I70
5I7
306