Thuyt trnh:

RA QUYT NH
THEO M HNH TON
TRONG PHNG
PHP NH LNG

Nhm sinh vin thc hin:

Bi ng Khi G0501328
L Ngc Quang G0502228
Trn on Mnh Tuyn G0503379
Trn Quang 90502248
Nguyn H Quang Tun 90503323

I. KHI NIM CHUNG V

PHNG PHP NH LNG
1. Phng php nh Lng:

L thuyt nh lng trong qun tr c xy dng

da trn nhn thc c bn rng: Qun tr l
quyt nh (Management is decision making) v
mun vic qun tr c hiu qu th cc quyt nh
phi ng n

Ra quyt nh l nhim v quan trng ca nh

qun tr, kinh nghim, kh nng xt on, c sng
to cha th m bo c c nhng quyt nh
ph hp v ti u nu thiu kh nng nh lng.

Trong khi ra quyt nh, nh qun tr c th s

dng nhiu cng c nh lng khc nhau vi s
tr gip ca my tnh.

2. Cc bc trong phng php nh Lng:

Xc nh vn
cn gii qut
Lp m hnh
Thu thp d lu
Tm li gii
Th nghim li gii
Phn tch kt qu
Thc hin li gii

3. So snh phng php nh Lng v

phng php nh Tnh:

Nghin cu nh tnh (NCT) l nhng nghin cu thu c

cc kt qu khng s dng nhng cng c o lng, tnh
ton. Ni mt cch c th hn NCT l nhng nghin cu
tm bit nhng c im, tnh cht ca i tng nghin
cu (TNC) cng nh nhng yu t nh hng n suy
ngh, hnh vi ca TNC trong nhng hon cnh c th.
Nghin cu nh lng (NCL) l nhng nghin cu hu c
cc kt qu bng vic s dng nhng cng c o lng,
tnh ton vi nhng con s c th.
Trong khi nghin cu nh lng (NCL) i tm tr li cho
cu h ibao nhiu, mc no (how many, how much) th
NCT i tm tr li cho cu hi ci g (what), nh th no
(how), ti sao (why). mt gc no chnh mc tiu
nghin cu l c s phn bit nghin cu nh lng v
nh tnh. V th vic pht trin mc tiu ca mt cuc
nghin cu l mt bc ht sc quan trng.

4. Mt s m hnh ton trong phng php

nh lng:

Hin nay, phng php nh lng nghin cu nhiu bi

ton lin quan n vn qun l nh:
L thuyt ra quyt nh
Quy hoch tuyn tnh
Quy hoch nguyn
Quy hoch ng
Bi ton vn ti
Bi ton phn cng
Bi ton qun l
L thuyt xp hng
L thuyt h thng
L thuyt tr chi
Ra quyt nh yu t
L thuyt hu ch
L thuyt m phng

II. QUY HOCH TUYN TNH

1. Quy hoch tuyn tnh l g?

Trongton hc,quy hoch tuyn tnh(QHTT) l bi ton

ti u ha, trong hm mc tiu(objective function) v
cc iu kin rng buc u l tuyn tnh.
ng A.N Kolmogorov nh ton hc xc sut ni ting th
gii ngi Lin X, l ngi u tin nhn thc c m
hnh qui hoch tuyn tnh trc th chin th hai.
Vo nm 1945, mt p dng u tin ca QHTT do Stigler
thc hin vo bi ton khu phn. Nm 1947, mt bc
tin ch yu trong QHTT c thc hin do Geogre D.
Dantzig (nh ton hc lm vic cho c quan khng lc
M) khm ph ra php n hnh (Simplex Method). T
Dantzig cng cc nh ton hc khc b sung, ci tin
php n hnh php n hnh tr thnh 1 cng c ch
yu tm li gii ti u ca bi ton QHTT. Ngy nay vi
s h tr ca my tnh vic gii bi ton QHTT tr nn n
gin. V vy vic p dng bi ton QHTT trong thc t
ngy cng tr nn rng ri.

2. M hnh tng qut ca bi tan quy hach

tuyn tnh
a. Bi ton cc i:
Mt nh qun l d n nng nghip ng
dng QHTT lm cc i li nhun ca d n
da trn cc s liu sau:

Cc bc thnh lp bi ton QHTT :

Bc 1 : Xc nh bin quyt nh (Decision
Variable)
Gi x1 l s tn la go cn c sn xut.
Gi x2 l s tn la m cn c sn xut.
Bc 2 : Xc nh hm mc tiu (Objective
Function). Hm mc tiu trong bi ton ny l
cc i li nhun Z.
Max Z = 18x1 + 21x2
Bc 3 : Xc nh cc rng buc (Constraints)
Rng buc v din tch : 2x1 + 3x2 < 50
Rng buc v lng nc: 6x1 + 4x2 < 90
Rng buc v nhn lc: 20x1 + 5x2 < 250
Gi tr ca cc bin phi dng xi > 0 vi i = 1, 2

b. Bi ton cc tiu :
Mt nh qun l tri g d nh mua 2 loi thc n
trn ra khu phn tt v gi r.
Mi n v thc n loi 1 gi 2 ng c cha
- 5g thnh phn A
- 4g thnh phn B
- 0,5g thnh phn C
Mi n v thc n loi 2 gi 3 ng c cha
- 10g thnh phn A
- 3g thnh phn B
- Khng c cha thnh phn C.
Trong 1 thng, 1 con g cn ti thiu 90g thnh phn
A, 48g thnh phn B v 1,5g thnh phn C.
Hy tm s lng mi loi thc n cn mua c
m bo nhu cu ti thiu v dinh dng cho 1 con
g vi gi r nht.

Cc bc thnh lp bi ton QHTT:

Bc 1 : Xc nh bin quyt nh
Gi x1, x2 ln lt l s lng n v thc phm loi
1 v loi 2 cn cho 1 con g trong 1 thng.

Bc 2 : Xc nh hm mc tiu
Hm mc tiu ca bi ton ny l cc tiu gi mua
Min Z = 2x1 + 3x2

Bc 3 : Xc nh cc rng buc
Thnh phn A :
5x1 + 10x2 > 90
Thnh phn B :
4x1 + 3x2 > 48
Thnh phn C :

0.5x1 > 1,5

Thng thng qu trnh gii bi ton QHTT bao gm 5 bc:

Bc 1: Nhn dng cc bin quyt nh v hm mc tiu
Bc 2: Din t hm mc tiu v cc rng buc theo cc bin quyt
nh
Bc 3: Kim tra xem c phi tt c cc quan h trong hm mc tiu
v trong cc rng buc c phi l quan h tuyn tnh khng. Nu
khng, phi tm m hnh phi tuyn khc gii.
Bc 4: Kim tra vng khong gian li gii xem xt iu kin nghim
ca bi ton. Cc kh nng c th xy ra l:
Khng c vng kh thi (v nghim)
Vng kh thi v hn v khng c im cc tr
Vng kh thi v hn v c im cc tr
Vng kh thi c gii hn
Nu:
a xy ra th phi ni lng cc rng buc
b xy ra th phi cu trc li m hnh, c th a thm rng
buc vo m hnh
c,d xy ra th sang bc 5
Bc 5: Tm ra cc li gii ti u c th c. Vic tm li gii ny c th
dng:
Phng php th (Graphical method)
Phng php n hnh (Simplex method)

3. GII BI TON QHTT BNG PHNG PHP

TH (graphical method)
a. Phng php dng ng ng li (iso - profit
line) hay ng ng ph (iso - cost line)
* Bi ton cc i
Hm mc tiu :
Max Z = 18x1 + 21x2
Rng buc :
2x1 + 3x2 < 50
6x1 + 4x2 < 90
20x1 + 5x2 < 250
xi > 0 vi i= 1, 2

* ng ng li:
Xt hm mc tiu Z = 18x1 + 21x2. ng vi mi
gi tr Z = Z0 th ng thng c phng trnh 18x1
+ 21x2 = Z0 gi l ng ng li. Cc ng ng
li song song nhau.

Gii bi ton QHTT theo phng php th l i

tm ng ng li ng vi gi tr ca hm mc tiu
Z ln nht v ng ng li phi ct khng gian
li gii. ng ng li cng cch xa gc th gi tr
Z cng ln.

bi ton ny Z = Zmax = 378 khi ng ng li

i qua im C (7, 12). Vy ta ca im C chnh
l nghim ti u ca bi ton.

* Bi ton cc tiu
Hm mc tiu
Min Z = 2x1 + 3x2
Cc rng buc:
5x1 + 10x2 > 90
4x1 + 3x2 > 48
0.5x1 > 1,5
x1, x2 > 0

Zmin = 2x1 + 3x2 = 2.8,4 + 3.4,8 = 31,2

b. Phng php dng im nh (Corner Point,

Extreme Point)

Cc im nh l giao im ca cc rng buc nm

trong khng gian li gii gi l cc nh ca khng
gian li gii.

Mt kt qu quan trng trong l thuyt qui hoch

tuyn tnh l : Nu bi ton QHTT c li gii ti u th
li gii s nm trn cc nh ca khng gian li gii.

p dng kt qu ny im tm gi tr ca hm mc
tiu bng cch so snh gi tr ca cc nh ca
khng gian li gii.

* Gii bi ton cc i v d trn

So snh gi tr ti 5 nh O, A, B, C, D
nh O (0, 0) ZO = 0
nh A (12, 5) ZA = 18 x 15,5 + 21 x 0 = 225
nh B (11, 6) ZB = 8 x 11 + 21 x 6 = 324
nh C (7, 12) ZC = 18 x 7 + 21 x 12
=
378
nh D (0, 16.67) ZD = 18 x 0 + 21 x 16,67
=
350,07
Zmax = ZC = 378

* Gii bi ton cc tiu v d trn

So snh gi tr ti 3 nh A, B, C :
nh A (18, 0) ZA = 2 x 18 + 3 x 0 = 36
nh B (8,4 , 4,8) ZB = 2 x 8,4 + 3 x 4,8 =
31,2
nh C (3, 12) ZC = 2 x 3 + 3 x 12 =
Zmin = ZC = 31,2

42

III. RA QUYT NH NHIU YU

T
1. Khi nim v ra quyt nh:
Ra quyt nh l mt qu trnh la
chn c thc gia hai hoc nhiu
phng n chn ra mt phng n
v phng n ny s to ra c mt
kt qu mong mun trong cc iu kin
rng buc bit.

2. Cc bc ca qu trnh ra quyt nh:

Bc 1: Xc nh r vn cn gii quyt.
Bc 2: Lit k tt c cc phng n c th
c.
Bc 3: Nhn ra cc tnh hung hay cc
trng thi.
Bc 4: c lng tt c li ch v chi ph
cho mi phng n ng vi mi trng thi.
Bc 5: La chn mt m hnh ton hc
trong PP nh lng tm li gii ti u.
Bc 6: p dng m hnh tm li gii v
da vo ra quyt nh.

* gii quyt bi ton ra quyt nh nhiu

yu t c th lm cc cch sau:
Nhiu ngi xem xt cc yu t khc nhau
ny mt cch ch quan v trc gic.
Dng phng php nh gi yu t MFEP
(Multi Factor Evaluation Process).
* Phng php MFEP:
Trong phng php MFEP mi yu t quan
trng nh hng n quyt nh s c gn
1 h s ni ln tm quan trng tng i
gia cc yu t vi nhau. Sau nh gi
phng n theo cc h s ny.

* Cc bc thc hin phng php MFEP:

Bc 1: Lit k tt c cc yu t v gn cho yu
t th i 1 trng s FWi, 0 < FWi < 1. FWi ni ln
tm quan trng ca mi yu t mt cch tng
i FWi = 1
Bc 2: Lng gi theo yu t. Vi mi yu t i ta
nh gi phng n j bng cch gin mt h s
FEij gi l lng gi ca phng n j i vi yu
t i.
Bc 3: Tnh tng lng qu trng s ca tng
phng n j (Total Weighted evaluation)
TWEj = FWi x FEij
i

Chn phng n j ng vi Max TWEj

3. Khi nim hu ch:

hu ch l o mc u tin ca ngi ra quyt
nh i vi li nhun.
L thuyt hu ch l l thuyt nghin cu cch kt
hp mc u tin v may ri ca ngi ra quyt
nh i vi cc yu t khc trong qu trnh ra quyt
nh.
* hu ch c c tnh nh sau:
Kt qu tt nht s c hu ch l 1
U (tt nht) =1
Kt qu xu nht s c hu ch l 0
U (xu nht) = 0
Kt qu khc s c hu ch (0,1)
0 < U (khc) < 1

KT THC