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Assignments: Program: MFC Semester-Iii
Assignments: Program: MFC Semester-Iii
Uttar Pradesh
India 201303
ASSIGNMENTS
PROGRAM: MFC
SEMESTER-III
Subject Name
Study COUNTRY
Roll Number (Reg.No.)
Student Name
:
:
:
:
INSTRUCTIONS
a) Students are required to submit all three assignment sets.
ASSIGNMENT
Assignment A
Assignment B
Assignment C
DETAILS
Five Subjective Questions
Three Subjective Questions + Case Study
Objective or one line Questions
MARKS
10
10
10
b)
c)
d)
e)
Signature :
Date
:
_________________________________
_________________________________
S e c u r i t y An a l y s i s
A s s i g n m e n t A:
Q . 1 W h a t i s m e a n t b y F u n d a m e n t a l An a l y s i s ? H o w d o e s i t d i f f e r
f r o m t e c h n i c a l An a l y s i s ?
Fundamental analysis aims to establish a cause and effect relationship
between market movements and economic developments. In that sense,
i t i s d i f f e r e n t f r o m t e c h n i c a l a n a l ys i s w h i c h r e g a r d s t h e p r i c e a c t i o n a s
t h e b e g i n n i n g a n d e n d o f t r a d i n g . W h i l e t e c h n i c a l a n a l ys t s g e n e r a l l y
argue that the price action reflects all information available to the
market, fundamental analysts seek to identify imbalances and errors
in the market that may offer profit opportunities. Unlike the technical
t r a d e r , t h e f u n d a m e n t a l t r a d e r i s a l w a ys s k e p t i c a l o f t h e p r i c e a c t i o n ,
and seeks alternative explanations to the wisdom of the market in
e v a l u a t i n g p r i c e t r e n d s . Tec h n i c a l a n a l y s i s a n d f u n d a m e n t a l a n a l y s i s
a r e t h e t w o m a i n s c h o o l s o f t h o u g h t i n t h e f i n a n c i a l m a r k e t s . As w e ' v e
m e n t i o n e d , t e c h n i c a l a n a l ys i s l o o k s a t t h e p r i c e m o v e m e n t o f a s e c u r i t y
and uses this data to predict its future price movements. Fundamental
analysis, on the other hand, looks at economic factors, known as
fundamentals. Let's get into the details of how these two approaches
d i f f e r, t h e c r i t i c i s m s a g a i n s t t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s a n d h o w t e c h n i c a l a n d
f u n d a m e n t a l a n a l ys i s c a n b e u s e d t o g e t h e r t o a n a l yz e s e c u r i t i e s
The Differences
Charts vs. Financial Statements
A t t h e m o s t b a s i c l e v e l , a t e c h n i c a l a n a l ys t a p p r o a c h e s a s e c u r i t y f r o m
t h e c h a r t s , w h i l e a f u n d a m e n t a l a n a l ys t s t a r t s w i t h t h e f i n a n c i a l
s t a t e m e n t s . ( F o r f u r t h e r r e a d i n g , s e e I n t r o d u c t i o n To F u n d a m e n t a l
A n a l ys i s a n d Ad v a n c e d F i n a n c i a l S t a t e m e n t An a l y s i s . )
By looking at the balance sheet, cash flow statement and income
s t a t e m e n t , a f u n d a m e n t a l a n a l ys t t r i e s t o d e t e r m i n e a c o m p a n y ' s v a l u e .
I n f i n a n c i a l t e r m s , a n a n a l ys t a t t e m p t s t o m e a s u r e a c o m p a n y' s i n t r i n s i c
value. In this approach, investment decisions are fairly easy to make if the price of a stock trades below its intrinsic value, it's a good
investment.
Al t h o u g h
this
is
an
oversimplification
(fundamental
analysis goes beyond just the financial statements) for the purposes of
this tutorial, this simple tenet holds true.
Tec h n i c a l t r a d e r s , o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , b e l i e v e t h e r e i s n o r e a s o n t o
analyze a company's fundamentals because these are all accounted for
i n t h e s t o c k ' s p r i c e . Tec h n i c i a n s b e l i e v e t h a t a l l t h e i n f o r m a t i o n t h e y
need about a stock can be found in its charts
Time Horizon
Fundamental
a n a l ys i s
takes
relatively
long-term
approach
to
a n a l y z i n g t h e m a r k e t c o m p a r e d t o t e c h n i c a l a n a l ys i s . W h i l e t e c h n i c a l
a n a l y s i s c a n b e u s e d o n a t i m e f r a m e o f w e e k s , d a ys o r e v e n m i n u t e s ,
f u n d a m e n t a l a n a l ys i s o f t e n l o o k s a t d a t a o v e r a n u m b e r o f ye a r s .
The different timeframes that these two approaches use is a result of
t h e n a t u r e o f t h e i n v e s t i n g s t yl e t o w h i c h t h e y e a c h a d h e r e . I t c a n t a k e
a l o n g t i m e f o r a c o m p a n y' s v a l u e t o b e r e f l e c t e d i n t h e m a r k e t , s o
w h e n a f u n d a m e n t a l a n a l ys t e s t i m a t e s i n t r i n s i c v a l u e , a g a i n i s n o t
realized until the stock's market price rises to its "correct" value. This
t yp e o f i n v e s t i n g i s c a l l e d v a l u e i n v e s t i n g a n d a s s u m e s t h a t t h e s h o r t term market is wrong, but that the price of a particular stock will
correct itself over the long run. This "long run" can represent a
timeframe of as long as several years, in some cases
Furthermore, the numbers that a fundamentalist analyzes are only
released over long periods of time. Financial statements are filed
quarterly and changes in earnings per share don't emerge on a daily
basis
like
price
and
volume
information.
Al s o
remember
that
fundamentals
are
the
actual
characteristics
of
business.
New
only
is
technical
analysis
more
short
term
in
nature
than
f u n d a m e n t a l a n a l ys i s , b u t t h e g o a l s o f a p u r c h a s e ( o r s a l e ) o f a s t o c k
a r e u s u a l l y d i f f e r e n t f o r e a c h a p p r o a c h . I n g e n e r a l , t e c h n i c a l a n a l ys i s
is used for a trade, whereas fundamental analysis is used to make an
investment. Investors buy assets they believe can increase in value,
while traders buy assets they believe they can sell to somebody else at
a greater price. The line between a trade and an investment can be
b l u r r y, b u t i t d o e s c h a r a c t e r i z e a d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e t w o s c h o o l s .
t yp e s
and
originate
from
different
situations.
We
have
t h e r e f o r e i t c a n n o t b e r e d u c e d o r d i v e r s i f i e d a w a y. F o r e x a m p l e a n y
global turmoil will affect the whole stock market and not any single
stock, similarly any change in the interest rates affect the whole market
t h o u g h s o m e s e c t o r s a r e m o r e a f f e c t e d t h e n o t h e r s . T h i s t yp e o f r i s k i s
called non diversifiable risk because no amount of diversification can
reduce this risk
U n s y s t e m a t i c r i s k i s t h e e x t e n t o f v a r i a b i l i t y i n t h e s t o c k o r s e c u r i t y s
r e t u r n o n a c c o u n t o f f a c t o r s w h i c h a r e u n i q u e t o a c o m p a n y. F o r
example it may be possible that management of a company may be
p o o r, o r t h e r e m a y b e s t r i k e o f w o r k e r s w h i c h l e a d s t o l o s s e s . S i n c e
t h e s e f a c t o r s a f f e c t o n l y o n e c o m p a n y, t h i s t yp e o f r i s k c a n b e
diversified away by investing in more than one company because each
company is different and therefore this risk is also called diversifiable
risk.
Q.3 Explain the Whitebeck Kisor m odel?
Q . 4 W h a t i s M a c a u l a y s D u r a t i o n ?
The original idea of duration of a bond was the brainchild of Frederick
M a c a u l a y, a C a n a d i a n - b o r n e c o n o m i s t , p u b l i s h e d i n t h e e a r l y 2 0 t h
c e n t u r y.
M a c a u l a y s i d e a w a s t o c o m p u t e t h e w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e t i m e
until a bondholder would receive the cash flows from a bond, where the
weight for each time period is the present value of the cash flow to be
received at that time, divided by the present value of all cash flows
( w h i c h i s t o d a y s p r i c e o n t h e b o n d ) .
m e a s u r e o f t i m e , t h e u n i t s o f M a c a u l a y d u r a t i o n a r e t y p i c a l l y y e a r s . As
a n e x a m p l e o f M a c a u l a y d u r a t i o n , i m a g i n e a 5 - ye a r , a n n u a l - p a y, 6 %
coupon, $1,000 par bond, when the current interest rate (i.e., the
b o n d s Y T M ) i s a t 4 % . T h e p r i c e o f t h e b o n d i s :
price = $601.04 + $601.042 + $601.043 + $601.044 + $1,0601.045=
$57.69 + $55.47 + $53.34 + $51.29 + $871.24= $1,089.04
$57.69$1,089.04(1
$53.34$1,089.04(3
year)
ye a r s )
$55.47$1,089.04(2
$51.29$1,089.04(4
ye a r s ) +
years)+
$ 8 7 1 . 2 4 $ 1 , 0 8 9 . 0 4 ( 5 y e a r s ) = 0 . 0 5 y e a r s + 0 . 1 0 ye a r s + 0 . 1 5 ye a r s + 0 . 1 9
years + 4.00 years= 4.49 years
The formula for Macaulay duration is usually written:
DMac = ni=1[PV(CFi) ti]ni=1PV(CFi)
where:
CFi: cash flow i
ti: time until receipt of cash flow i
T h e a d v a n t a g e t o u n d e r s t a n d i n g M a c a u l a y d u r a t i o n i s t h a t i t s e a s y t o
see how particular changes in the input variables affect it, and the best
part is that all of those changes in input variables affect modified
d u r a t i o n a n d e f f e c t i v e d u r a t i o n t h e s a m e w a y ! T h u s , i f yo u u n d e r s t a n d
Macaulay duration, youll automatically have a better understanding of
modified duration and effective duration.
L e t s c o n s i d e r t h e i n p u t
variables:
Time to Maturity: as the time to maturity increases, the Macaulay
d u r a t i o n i n c r e a s e s . You h a v e t o w a i t l o n g e r t o r e c e i v e yo u r m o n e y o n a
3 0 - y e a r b o n d t h a n o n a 1 0 - ye a r b o n d .
Coupon Rate: as the coupon rate increases, the Macaulay duration
decreases.
duration is the same as the maturity of the bond, because you get 100%
of the cash flow at maturity: the Macaulay duration of a zero-coupon
b o n d i s t h e t i m e t o m a t u r i t y. I f t h e c o u p o n i s h i g h e r t h a n 0 % , t h e n yo u
g e t s o m e o f y o u r m o n e y b a c k b e f o r e m a t u r i t y, s o t h e w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e
t i m e u n t i l yo u g e t y o u r m o n e y b a c k i s l e s s t h a n t h e t i m e t o m a t u r i t y :
when interest rates rise, near-term payments (which are discounted for
a short period of time) will have their present value decrease a little,
but long-term payments (which are discounted for a long period of
time) will have their present decrease a lot more; thus, as interest rates
rise, the long-term payments represent a smaller percentage of the
present value, and the near-term payments represent a larger portion of
the present value: the duration decreases.
bond above:
At a 4% YTM,
The PV of the first payment represents $57.69$1,089.04 = 5.3% of the
price
The PV of the last payment represents $871.24$1,089.04 = 80.0% of the
price
At a 5% YTM,
The PV of the first payment represents $57.14$1,043.29 = 5.5% of the
price
The PV of the last payment represents $830.54$1,043.29 = 79.6% of the
price
Q.5 Explain Efficient market Hypothesis?
The efficient markets hypothesis is a theory developed by Professor
Eugene Fama in the 1960s.
The theory states that the prices of traded assets (such as company
shares and bonds) take into account all available information. In other
words, the price of a traded asset is never undervalued or overvalued
b u t t h e p r i c e r e p r e s e n t s e x a c t l y w h a t i t s w o r t h a t t h a t p o i n t i n t i m e .
The efficient markets hypothesis assumes that markets, such as the
London Stock Exchange (LSE), are efficient so that the prices of all
assets are at a value that takes into account all the information
investors have access to. Therefore it states that no investor can beat
the market by investing in undervalued or overvalued assets because
the prices all represent their fair value at that point in time.
L e t s c l a r i f y t h i s t h e o r y w i t h a n e x a m p l e . L e t s s a y a s o f t w a r e c o m p a n y
trades its shares on a public stock exchange. The shares are currently
p r i c e d a t 2 p e r s h a r e . An i n v e s t o r, D a v i d , b e l i e v e s t h e s h a r e s a r e
undervalued. He saw in the newspaper recently that the software
company has won several large contracts for the future. David believes
t h a t t h e s o f t w a r e c o m p a n y w i l l g r o w i n v a l u e a n d t h i n k s t h e c o m p a n y s
shares are worth more than 2 and decides to invest, thinking he can
beat the market.
T h e e f f i c i e n t m a r k e t s h yp o t h e s i s s t a t e s t h a t i n t h i s s i t u a t i o n D a v i d i s
wrong to think that he can beat the market because the price of the
software company reflects all the available information to investors,
including the recent good news about future contracts
Assignment B
Q.1 Explain bond value theorems?
Q . 2 D e t e r m i n e t h e p r i c e o f R s . 1 , 0 0 0 z e r o c o u p o n b o n d w i t h yi e l d t o
m a t u r i t y o f 1 8 % a n d 1 0 ye a r s t o m a t u r i t y & d e t e r m i n e y i e l d t o m a t u r i t y
of this bond if its price is Rs 220?
Q.3 Explain in detail the Dow Theory and how it is used to determine
the direction of stock market?
Case study:
M r.J o s e w a n t s t o i n v e s t i n b o n d s a s u m o f R s . 1 , 0 0 , 0 0 0 . T h r e e b o n d s a r e
b e i n g e x a m i n e d b y h i m w i t h a h o l d i n g p e r i o d o f t h r e e ye a r s . E a c h b o n d
i s g i v e n AA A r a t i n g b y C r i s i l . I n t h e e c o n o m i c s c e n a r i o , t h e e c o n o m i c
c yc l e i s b e g i n n i n g t o m a t u r e & i n f l a t i o n i s e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e . I n a n
effort to contain the inflation, Reserve Bank of India is moving
t o w a r d s c r e d i t s q u e e z e . M r.J o s e s t a x b r a c k e t i s 5 0 % . T h e d e t a i l s o f t h e
bond are given:
Coupon rate
M a t u r i t y( y e a r s )
Yie l d t o m a t u r i t y
Duration
Bond A
0%
5
11 %
5
Bond B
10%
7
12%
6.58
Bond C
10%
5
11 %
4.68
Q . I f M r.J o s e h a s t o p i c k u p a n y t w o b o n d s w h a t w o u l d b e h i s
choice.What are the reasons you cite for picking up the particular
bonds?
Assignment C (40 multiple choice questions)
Q.1 Duration is the measure of
( a ) Ti m e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e b o n d
(b) Interest rate risk
( c ) Ti m e s t r u c t u r e & m a r k e t r i s k
( d ) Ti m e s t r u c t u r e & t h e i n t e r e s t r a t e r i s k
Q . 2 T h e s t a t i s t i c a l t o o l u s e d t o m e a s u r e a c o m p a n y s r i s k i s
(a) Mean
(b) Mode
( c ) Var i a n c e
(d) Co-variance
Q.3 Interest rate risk occurs when
(a) The market price of bond moves inversely to the prevailing
market interest rate
(b) The variability in yield is due to the market interest rate
fluctuations
(c) There is variability in the coupon interest rates
( d ) Al l
Q.4 Uncontrollable risk of a company is
(a) Labour problem
(b) Increase in loan service charge
(c) Cut in subsidy
( d ) Tec h n o l o g i c a l o b s o l e s c e n c e
( c ) To p r o v i d e i n s u r a n c e t o i n v e s t o r s i n c a s e o f d e f a u l t b y t h e
members
( d ) To p r o t e c t t h e m e m b e r & t h e i n v e s t o r
Q.10 The oldest stock exchange in India is
(a) BSE
(b) NSE
(c) Nifty
(b) ISE
Q . 11 T h e a c c o u n t i n g p e r i o d c y c l e o f N S E i s
( a ) Wed n e s d a y t o n e x t Tu e s d a y
( b ) Tu e s d a y t o n e x t Wed n e s d a y
(c) Monday to next Friday
( d ) Wed n e s d a y t o n e x t Wed n e s d a y
Q.12 Marketability risk of bond is
(a) The market risk which affects all the bonds
( b ) Var i a t i o n i n r e t u r n c a u s e d b y d i f f i c u l t y i n s e l l i n g b o n d s
(c) The failure to pay the agreed value of the bond by the issuer
(d) Both a & b
Q.13 Default risk is lower in
( a ) Tr e a s u r y b i l l s
(b) Government bonds
(c) ICICI Bonds
(d) IDBI bonds
Q.14 The value of bond depends on
(a) The coupon rate
( b ) Yea r s t o m a t u r i t y
( c ) E x p e c t e d yi e l d t o m a t u r i t y
( d ) Al l t h e a b o v e
Q . 1 5 T h e b o n d yi e l d r e m a i n s c o n s t a n t o v e r i t s l i f e a n d t h e d i s c o u n t
or premium amount will decrease
( a ) At a d e c r e a s i n g r a t e a s i t s l i f e g e t s s h o r t e r
( b ) At a d e c r e a s i n g r a t e a s i t s l i f e g e t s l o n g e r
( c ) At a n i n c r e a s i n g r a t e a s i t s l i f e g e t s s h o r t e r
( d ) At a n i n c r e a s i n g r a t e a s i t s l i f e g e t s l o n g e r
Q.16 Investment is the
(a) Net additions made to the national capital stocks
( b ) P e r s o n s c o m m i t m e n t t o b u y a f l a t o r a h o u s e
(c) Employment of funds on assets to earn returns
(d) Employment of funds on goods and services that are used in
production process
Q.17 Speculator is a person
(a) Who evaluates the performance of the company
(b) Who uses his own funds only
(c) Who is willing to take high risk for high return
( d ) W h o c o n s i d e r s h e r e s a ys & m a r k e t b e h a v i o u r s
Q . 1 8 To f r a m e t h e i n v e s t m e n t p o l i c y t h e i n v e s t o r s h o u l d h a v e
(a) Knowledge about the company and the brokers
(b) Investible funds
(c) Knowledge about investment alternatives
(d) Knowledge about the market with funds
Q.19 The main objective of a rational investor is
(a) Maximising returns & minimizing risk
because
(a) Money may flow from the bond market to stock market
(b) Corporate can borrow at easy terms
(c) Brokers can do business at borrowed funds
(d) Both b & c
Q.25 The growth in book value per share shows the
(a) Rise in the share price
(b) Increase in the physical assets of the form
(c) Increase in the net worth
(d) Growth in reserves
Q.26 The price earnings ratio of a stock reflects
(a) The growth of the company
( b ) T h e m a r k e t m o o d f o r t h e c o m p a n y s s t o c k
(c) The earnings retained and invested in the company
( d ) T h e d i v i d e n d p a i d o u t f o r t h e c o m p a n y s s t o c k
Q . 2 7 N B F C s o f f e r s h i g h e r i n t e r e s t r a t e b e c a u s e o f
(a) the best management funds
(b) the competition amongst NBFCs
(c) the risk involved
(d) the credit rating
Q.28 Open ended schemes are
(a) open for a particular period
(b) have fixed period of maturity
(c) listed in the stock exchanges
(d) open on a continuous basis
Q.29 Interval fund is
(a) Index fund
Harry Markowitz
B)
Wi l l i a m S h a r p e
C)
Charles Dow
D)
Benjamin Graham
E)
B)
C)
D)
E)
Q . 3 4 Tec h n i c a l i n d i c a t o r s h e l p
( a ) To f i n d o u t t h e p r e s e n t s t a t e o f t h e s t o c k m a r k e t
( b ) To e s t i m a t e t h e g r o w t h o f s t o c k m a r k e t
( c ) To i n d i c a t e t h e e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y
( d ) To s h o w t h e d i r e c t i o n o f t h e o v e r a l l m a r k e t
Q.35 The market value of the scrip is determined by
(a) The dividend declared by the company
(b) The present status of the stock market
(c) The number of floating shares
(d) The interaction of demand & supply
Q.36 The negotiable financial investment is different from the nonnegotiable financial investment in terms of
(a) Maturity period
(b) Interest rate
( c ) Tr a n s f e r a b i l i t y
(d) Face value