[NOTE]

FYI – Latest updates on PAPER, HOUSE PROCESS, SENTIMENT, WHIP COUNT – incremental to SUN.
(03/14) "base note" (PASTED BELOW):

1. PAPER & PAPER RISK? SCANNING for "reconciliation bill" text and CBO score. (N.B. – New local
shorthand: "reconciliation bill" = "fixit bill".) RECONCILIATION BILL IS NEXT "RISK EVENT" FOR
DEMOCRATS – text has not been available publicly and public release opens provisions to criticism.

REMINDER – Paper expected to be posted to House Rules website: http://www.rules.house.gov

2. HOUSE PROCESS. TODAY (MON, 3/15), House Budget approved reconciliation bill and sent to
House Rules (48-hour layover required before Rules action). Per SUN. advisory (BELOW), Budget
forwarded text approved by House Ways & Means and Education & Labor in 2009 – ACTUAL BILL TEXT
WILL BE INSERTED BY RULES.

3. SENTIMENT. CONSENSUS opinion appears to be shifting fast – Even hardcore Rs (e.g., Sen. Jim
DeMint, R-SC) now publicly saying unlikely Rs can stop health reform legislation.

4. WHIP COUNT. House D leadership claims VOTES will be available; but on @Gretawire (FOX)
tonight, Cong. Bart Stupak (D-MI) would be surprised if House D leaders have 200 votes. Commentary:

THE HILL – "WHIP COUNT: House Democrats' positions on the healthcare reform bill" (03/15/10; 2:16P)
LK: http://thehill.com/homenews/house/85693-whip-watch-the-hills-survey-of-house-dems-positions-
on-healthcare-

FDL BLOG – "New Health Care Whip Count: 191 Yes, 206 No (204-208 with leaners)"(3/15/10; 3:23P)
LK: http://news.firedoglake.com/2010/03/15/new-health-care-whip-count-191-yes-206-no-204-208-
with-leaners

COMMENT: Longstanding view, of course, is D leaders will assemble needed votes.

5. [BASE NOTE – SUNDAY, 9:00P]

FYI – Will the House pass "health reform" this week – key events below, separate note to follow on
VOTE COUNT! On FOX NEWS SUNDAY (SUN., 3/14), White House press secretary Robert Gibbs predicts,
"[Next Sunday, talk shows] will be talking about healthcare not as a presidential proposal but I think as
the law of the land." RECALL, once the House passes the Senate health reform bill (HR 3590, health
reform legislation has been enacted (short of Presidential signature) – any "corrections" or
"reconciliation" bill merely modifies the new law.

MORE COLOR:

1. HOUSE LEGISLATIVE GOALS THIS WEEK

2. HOUSE EVENTS/TIMELINE THIS WEEK (SUBJECT TO CHANGE!)
3. WEEK OF 03/21 – SENATE ACTION ON "CORRECTIONS" (RECONCILIATION) BILL
4. REMINDER – EASTER RECESS BEGINS FRI. (03/26)
1. HOUSE LEGISLATIVE GOALS THIS WEEK. THIS WEEK, House looks to make final push TO PASS
TWO BILLS – BOTH THE SENATE HEALTH REFORM BILL (HR 3590) and a "CORRECTIONS" OR
"RECONCILIATION" BILL to make changes post facto to Senate bill. The Senate bill would be sent to the
President for signature – and the "CORRECTIONS" (RECONCILIATION) BILL would be sent to the Senate
for action!

2. HOUSE EVENTS/TIMELINE THIS WEEK (ALL EVENTS SUBJECT TO CHANGE!):

* MON (3/15; 3:00P) – HOUSE BUDGET APPROVES RECONCILIATION BILL – IGNORE BUDGET
COMMITTEE BILL TEXT, ACTUAL TEXT TO BE INSERTED BY HOUSE RULES COMMITTEE! ON MON. (3/15),
House Budget will conduct simply a necessary procedural exercise – THE ACTUAL CORRECTIONS OR
RECONCILIATION BILL WILL BE POSTED BY RULES COMMITTEE TUES. (3/16) OR LATER. House Budget
will assemble and forward to House Rule Committee health reform reconciliation bills drafted LAST YEAR
by House Ways & Means and Education & Labor Committees. House Budget cannot modify the
proposals. House Rules Committee will substitute new bill text (that prepared by White House and
House and Senate D leadership) – SEE BELOW.

LIVE WEBCAST: http://budget.house.gov

* TUES. (3/16; AM) – HOUSE RULES COMMITTEE – POSTS ONLINE ACTUAL RECONCILIATION
("CORRECTIONS") BILL TEXT – SENATE REPUBLICANS SUBMIT BILL TO PARLIAMENTARIAN. On TUES.
(3/16) AM, looking for House Rules Committee to post online text of the corrections or reconciliation
bill. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME THE BILL IS MADE AVAILABLE PUBLICLY.

RE SENATE, once public, Senate Republicans will ask the Senate Parliamentarian to rule on the eligibility
of provisions for inclusion in a reconciliation.

* TUES. (3/16) – THURS. (3/18) – HOUSE RULES APPROVES "RULE" FOR FLOOR CONSIDERATION
OF RECONCILIATION ("CORRECTIONS") AND SENATE BILL. Most likely on WED. (03/17), House Rules will
draft a "rule" or procedural motion for consideration of the "reconciliation" bill – i.e., duration of debate
on the House floor, whether any amendments will be in order, etc. Approval of the rule would likely be
the first House vote on health reform – later in the week. THE RULE MAY ALSO INCLUDE A PROVISION
THAT THE SENATE HEALTH REFORM BILL (HR 3590) WILL BE AUTOMATICALLY APPROVED – OR "DEEMED
APPROVED" – WHEN THE HOUSE PASSES THIS RULE PRIOR TO CONSIDERATION OF THE HOUSE
RECONCILIATION BILL. IF SO, THERE WOULD NEVER ACTUALLY BE A VOTE ON THE SENATE BILL, JUST
THE RECONCILIATION RULE!

CHECK FOR LIVE WEBCAST (TYPICALLY NOT BROADCAST): www.c-span.org

* THURS. (03/18) – SUN. (03/21) – HOUSE VOTES ON RECONCILIATION RULE (INCLUDES SENATE
BILL?) AND ON RECONCILIATION BILL ITSELF. Mostly likely on FRI. (03/19), House will VOTE ON BOTH
the reconciliation rule and reconciliation bill. (The House may also VOTE on some procedural motion
offered by Republicans – essentially providing delays.)

LIVE WEBCAST – C-SPAN: www.c-span.org

3. WEEK OF 03/21 – SENATE ACTION ON "CORRECTIONS" (RECONCILIATION) BILL. Checking

Senate timing.
4. REMINDER – EASTER RECESS BEGINS FRI. (03/26).

===

R. Alexander Vachon, III, Ph.D.

Hamilton PPB
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