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07 Inflation PDF
07 Inflation PDF
Inflation
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
FY 07
FY 08
FY 09
FY 10
FY 11
FY 12
FY 13
FY 14
GDP Growth
5.5
5.0
0.4
2.6
3.6
3.8
3.7
4.1
Inflation
7.8
12.0
17.0
10.1
13.7
11.0
7.4
8.0
106
Table 7.1: CPI Inflation Rate Year on Year (Y-o-Y) and On Average Basis
CPI
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Y-O-Y basis
8.3
8.5
7.4
9.1
10.9
9.2
7.9
7.9
8.5
9.2
On Average basis
8.3
8.4
8.1
8.3
8.8
8.9
8.8
8.6
8.6
8.7
YOYbasis
11.0
OnAveragebasis
% Change
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
7.0
Month
Inflation
107
CPI
WPI
S.P.I (Combined)
13.0
% Change
11.0
9.0
7.0
5.0
Apr-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
3.0
100.00
37.47
34.83
1.41
1.23
62.53
7.57
29.41
4.21
2.19
7.20
% Change Inflation
2012-13
2013-14
7.7
8.7
7.1
9.3
6.6
9.0
17.5
15.3
9.9
12.0
8.2
8.2
14.7
13.1
4.1
8.7
13.3
8.7
14.2
6.6
10.5
4.7
Point Contribution
2012-13
2013-14
7.8
8.7
34.0
40.0
29.8
36.1
3.2
2.5
1.6
1.7
66.0
60.0
14.4
11.4
15.6
29.0
7.2
4.2
4.0
1.7
9.7
3.9
108
3.22
2.03
3.94
2.07
53.52
% Change Inflation
2012-13
2013-14
2.2
3.3
18.3
9.2
9.3
8.7
10.6
5.2
9.9
8.3
Point Contribution
2012-13
2013-14
0.9
1.2
4.8
2.1
4.7
4.0
2.8
1.2
68.5
50.9
Inflation
Core Inflation
Core inflation is measured through the indices of 43
non-food non-energy items. Non-food non-Energy
(NFNE) inflation is calculated by excluding food
group and energy items (Kerosene oil, petrol, diesel,
CNG, electricity and natural gas) from the CPI
basket. By exclusion this index together with food
index from the CPI, the remaining represents core
inflation. Government borrowing is one of the key
factors influencing the trend of inflation. It is
because there is positive relation between
government borrowing and core inflation.
%Change
2012-13
2013-14
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
109
2012-13
11.3
10.8
10.4
10.1
9.6
9.8
10.0
9.6
9.0
8.7
9.9
2013-14
8.2
8.5
8.7
8.4
8.5
8.2
8.1
7.8
7.6
8.5
8.3
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Upto Rs.
18001-35000
17.6
10.3
14.7
10.8
6.8
Above
Rs.35000
16.8
9.8
13.3
11.5
6.4
7.2
9.2
6.9
8.2
110
Fig7.5:InfaltionbyIncomeGroup
20.0
Combined
UptoRs.8000
UptoRs.800112000
UptoRs.1200118000
UptoRs.1800135000
AboveRs.35000
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
General (WPI)
Agriculture Forestry & Fishery
Non-Food
Ores & Minerals
Food Products, Beverages
Other Transportable Goods
Metal Products Machinery
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS)
JulApr2013
14
JulApr2012
13
Weights
100.00
25.77
68.89
12.04
31.11
22.37
8.71
201213
201112
201011
200910
200809
6.0
0.26
0.30
0.06
5.49
0.05
0.28
0.09
0.12
0.01
1.06
0.06
0.00
0.08
(%) Change
July Apr
2012-13
2013-14
7.92
8.28
6.47
10.74
8.30
8.94
19.45
13.96
7.04
6.74
5.92
5.16
4.71
5.66
% change
July-Apr (2013-14)
137.38
44.36
29.59
23.72
23.18
14.68
14.44
14.40
14.26
13.94
13.75
13.75
13.65
Impact
7.92
2.73
5.72
2.34
2.19
1.32
0.41
8.28
4.52
6.16
1.68
2.10
1.15
0.49
Impact
0.35
0.13
0.02
1.30
0.01
0.04
0.01
0.02
0.00
0.15
0.01
0.00
0.01
Inflation
Table 7.9: (%) Change in prices of non-food major items of WPI
Items
Weight
Ceramics and sanitary
Tractors
Timber
Insecticides
Refrige, wash& sew mach, iron
Hard board
Chemicals
Bricks blocks and tiles
Lighting equipments
Quilts
Motor sprit
Matches
Cement
Paints & varnishes
Soaps & detergent
Hosiery products
Glass sheets
Other fabrics
Coal not agglomerated
Electrical wires
Kerosene oil
Cotton fabrics
Printing paper
Silk and rayon fabrics
Other glass articles
Mobil oil
Diesel oil
Motor vehicles
Bed foams
Dying materials
Steel products
Plastic products
Air conditioners
Chuff cutter
Natural gas liquefied
Blended yarn
Woolen carpets
Cotton yarn
Steel bars & sheets
Auto tyres
Footwear
Bicycles
Fertilizers
Nylon yarn
Medicines
Motor cycles
Total
0.02
0.00
0.02
0.13
1.16
0.16
1.77
0.16
1.44
0.00
1.53
0.05
1.81
0.19
0.82
0.88
0.21
1.10
0.75
0.09
0.22
0.63
0.43
0.74
0.16
0.71
5.27
0.02
0.00
0.15
0.39
0.46
0.00
0.13
5.74
0.17
0.04
5.25
1.40
0.27
0.16
3.35
2.87
0.17
1.14
0.26
50.28
% change
July-Apr (2013-14)
13.45
13.40
13.32
12.99
12.82
12.77
10.95
10.66
10.56
9.83
9.73
9.70
9.44
8.92
8.72
8.59
8.18
8.14
7.95
7.85
7.73
7.73
7.68
6.81
6.19
5.43
5.35
5.19
5.15
5.03
4.54
4.49
4.43
4.27
3.89
3.74
3.63
3.53
3.52
3.10
2.58
2.52
1.83
0.72
0.57
0.19
111
Impact
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.15
0.02
0.19
0.02
0.15
0.00
0.15
0.00
0.17
0.02
0.07
0.08
0.02
0.09
0.06
0.01
0.02
0.05
0.03
0.05
0.01
0.04
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.01
0.22
0.01
0.00
0.19
0.05
0.01
0.00
0.08
0.05
0.00
0.01
0.00
4.43
112
was reflected that SPI for the last five weeks has
witnessed declining trend. While comparative prices
of essential kitchen items in Sasta Bazar and Open
Market is given at Table 7.11.
(% CHANGE)
April 14/April 13
178.46
29.91
25.42
23.94
18.99
18.35
11.98
9.05
7.67
6.41
Contribution
2.23
0.18
0.12
0.85
0.17
2.00
0.14
1.52
0.16
0.27
7.66
-29.05
-0.41
-21.81
-0.26
-14.38
-0.09
-11.60
-0.25
-1.98
-0.01
-0.96
-0.03
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS)
Masoor Pulse
Sugar
Garlic
Tea
Gram
Pulse
Tomatoes
0
Onions
Moong Pulse
Egg (Farm)
Potatoes
Mutton
Rice Basmati
Broken
Chicken Farm
Wheat Flour
Beef
%Change
-25
Milk Fresh
%Change
Fig-7.7
Milk Fresh
80
Rs.73/
75
95
70
(Ltr)
60
90
Rs.67/
85
(Kg)
65
55
80
50
75
45
70
40
Rs.85/
Rs.75/
65
35
60
30
060613
150813
241013
020114
130314
220514
06-06-13
15-08-13
24-10-13
02-01-14
13-03-14
22-05-14
Inflation
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Potatoes
100
90
80
70
(Kg)
(Kg)
Tomatoes
113
60
50
Rs.58/
40
Rs.23/
Rs.54/
Rs.24/
30
20
06-06-13
15-08-13
24-10-13
02-01-14
13-03-14
22-05-14
06-06-13
15-08-13
Onions
24-10-13
02-01-14
13-03-14
22-05-14
Sugar
80
80
75
70
70
65
(Kg)
(Kg)
60
50
Rs.31/
40
30
Rs.39/
60
Rs.52/
55
50
Rs.53/
45
40
20
06-06-13
35
15-08-13
24-10-13
02-01-14
13-03-14
22-05-14
06-06-13
15-08-13
24-10-13
02-01-14
13-03-14
22-05-14
Table 7.11: Comparison of Prices of Kitchen Items In Sasta Bazar and Open Market
S.No. Commodity
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
Unit
10 KG
KG
KG
KG
DOZ
2.5 Ltr.
2.5 KG
KG
DOZ
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
Islamabad
Punjab
Sindh
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Balochistan
Sasta/Itwar/ Open Market Sasta/Itwar/ Open Market Sasta/Itwar/ Open Market Sasta/Itwar/ Open Market
Prices
Open Market
Sahulat Bazar
Prices
Sahulat Bazar
Prices
Sahulat Bazar
Prices
Sahulat Bazar
Prices
Notified by
Prices
Price
Price
Price
Price
DC Quetta on
18.05.2014
15.05.2014
18.05.2014
15.05.2014
18.05.2014
15.05.2014
18.05.2014
15.05.2014
10.04.2014
15.05.2014
390.00
393.75
356.00
368.60
N.A
443.08
NA
385.00
420.00
435.00
82.50
86.25
65.21
74.12
76.25
76.54
67.50
78.33
90.00
90.00
60.00
62.50
51.63
55.34
60.00
61.54
47.50
48.50
N.A
45.00
155.00
160.25
155.50
156.00
N.A
157.50
161.00
166.00
N.A
180.00
75.00
80.88
66.75
74.27
N.A
81.23
80.00
78.33
92.50
100.00
520.00
540.00
481.67
540.00
N.A
535.00
540.00
540.00
N.A
540.00
500.00
510.00
449.25
507.14
N.A
520.00
510.00
510.00
N.A
510.00
160.00
168.75
153.04
156.88
160.00
161.54
162.50
172.50
165.00
190.00
125.00
220.63
86.50
97.41
55.00
63.08
75.00
80.00
N.A
60.00
115.00
141.25
113.42
134.83
116.25
116.54
110.00
114.33
110.00
136.00
170.00
172.50
144.71
162.72
157.50
163.08
138.75
146.67
160.00
160.00
147.50
154.38
124.33
147.77
127.50
138.08
135.00
135.00
170.00
170.00
66.25
88.75
59.71
66.88
76.25
76.54
76.25
76.67
100.00
105.00
58.00
72.50
53.64
60.50
50.00
50.00
55.00
61.67
N.A
50.00
35.20
53.44
27.07
33.55
27.50
28.62
38.75
39.17
N.A
30.00
22.00
41.56
15.68
22.71
17.50
23.08
25.00
25.83
N.A
20.00
53.50
59.13
50.57
51.48
53.00
52.62
53.00
53.17
53.00
51.00
245.00
248.75
190.36
212.52
270.00
286.15
172.50
196.67
N.A
290.00
95.00
170.00
94.93
114.99
97.50
113.08
100.00
100.00
N.A
160.00
International Prices
The international prices of palm oil have increased
by 9 percent since July 2013. The increase in its
price is largely responsible for increase in domestic
edible oil prices. There has been an increase in the
prices of other commodities which are important for
114
Crude Oil
($/Brl)
Wheat
($/Ton)
Tea
$/Ton
DAP
$/MT
107.7
111.0
111.6
109.5
108.1
110.7
107.4
108.8
107.4
107.8
304.6
305.3
307.5
325.7
306.8
291.6
276.1
292.3
323.6
324.9
2843.0
2812.0
2750.0
2818.0
2770.0
2890.0
2950.0
2580.0
2500.0
2670.0
460.0
438.1
398.1
377.3
351.3
369.9
438.3
490.6
499.4
470.6
0.1
6.7
-6.1
2.3
Fig 7.8
115
Inflation
including Thailand, India and Australia. Vegetable
oil prices also declined by 2.8 percent in the review
period due to lower than anticipated import demand
notably from European Union. According to FAO
new food outlook, overall world cereal stocks are
expected to remain relatively stable for 2014, despite
rising global consumption.
Regional Countries Inflation
India
Food
Bangladesh
Food
NonFood
7.9
8.1
7.4
7.4
8.1
6.4
7.1
7.9
5.9
7.0
8.4
5.0
7.2
8.6
5.1
7.4
9.0
4.9
7.5
8.8
5.5
7.4
8.8
5.4
7.5
9.0
5.3
7.5
9.0
5.2
NonFood
8.4
7.6
7.7
7.0
7.0
7.0
6.5
6.1
6.3
6.0
11.2
11.1
11.4
12.6
14.7
12.2
9.9
8.6
9.1
9.7
CPI
Sri-Lanka
Food
NonFood
6.1
5.8
6.3
6.3
6.0
6.6
6.2
5.9
6.5
6.7
7.6
5.9
5.6
5.3
5.8
4.7
3.5
5.6
4.4
1.3
7.1
4.2
0.9
7.0
4.2
1.2
6.7
4.9
3.4
6.3
CPI
Fig-7.9
Pakistan
India
Banglaesh
Sri Lanka
16.0
% Change
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
India
14.0
Banglaesh
12.0
Sri Lanka
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
0.0
Jul-13
% Change
116