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Interested Parties
Christina Coloroso, DCCC National Analytics Director
October 20, 2015

NOLAN LEADS MILLS BY 11 POINTS IN MINNESOTAS 8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Democratic Congressman Rick Nolan leads Republican Stewart Mills by 11 points in the race for
Minnesotas 8th congressional district, according to a DCCC survey of likely 2016 general election voters
conducted on October 15-16, 2015.
At the outset of their 2016 rematch, Nolan
holds an 11-point advantage over Mills, 40%
to 29%, with 31% of the electorate
undecided. After allocating undecided voters
by their likely partisanship, Nolans lead
increases to 13 points, 51% to 38%, with 11%
of voters remaining undecided.

NOLAN LEADS MILLS BY 11 POINTS

50%
40%

40%

29%

30%
20%

Nolan well outperforms a generic Democrat in

the 8th district, while Mills underperforms a 10%
generic Republican. 35% of voters in this
district would vote for a generic Democratic
0%
congressional candidate and 32% of voters
would choose a Republican.

NOLAN

MILLS

VOTERS HAVE A FAVORABLE IMPRESSION OF NOLAN

Nolan holds a 39% favorability rating, and just 24% of voters view him unfavorably. Nolans favorability
among men is even higher, at 43%. Among voters age 65 or over, 41% view Nolan favorably, and Nolan
leads Mills by 10 points in the head-to-head matchup. Younger voters favor Nolan as well, with 41% of
voters under 35 saying they would vote for Nolan, compared to only 18% who would vote for Mills.

VOTERS HOLD NET NEGATIVE VIEW OF MILLS

Mills is not well liked among voters in the 8th district. 34% of voters hold an unfavorable view of Mills,
while just 20% view him favorably. This pattern is even more pronounced among women and older
voters. Just 19% of women hold a favorable view of Mills, while 35% view him unfavorably. Only 15% of
voters age 65 and over have a favorable view of Mills and 34% view him unfavorably. Likely independent
voters have a net unfavorable view of Mills (-5, 22% fav, 27% unfav).
The data in this memo is from a survey of 402 likely 2016 general election voters conducted October 1516, 2015 in Minnesotas 8th congressional district. Respondents information came from the voter file and
respondents were interviewed over the phone via a live survey. The margin of error is 4 percentage
points.