KIS Industry Outlook

Hotels

2014. 12

/
/

787-2209
hahyuk.sung@kisrating.com

787-2255
konyoo@kisrating.com

Summary
Outlook .
1)
2) ,
3)
.
[ ]

2015
2015 / ,
,
.
.

[ Credit Issue ]

, ,
,
/ .
, ,
.
, ,
.

2014 ,
, .
2015 2 3
,
.

(Hotels)

GS

.

.

[ Monitoring Point ]

: - ,
-
:

vs.

I.

: 2015

2014 .

,
.
[ ]

(: )
()

()
16%

14,000
12,000

13%

10,000

14%

11%

4,000

12%

9%

8,000

7,818

8,798

9,795

18%
16%

14%

6,000

12,176
11,140

11,998
10,339

6%
4%

2,000

2%

70%

50%

34.8%
28.7%
20.3%

30%

11.8%
10%

-10%

12.0%
8.7%

12.4%

21.1%
7.0% 7.7%

14.01 14.02 14.03 14.04 14.05 14.06 14.07 14.08 14.09 14.10

0%
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

13.10 14.10

) , .

KIS Industry Outlook

90%

10%
8%

-30%

: ,

(Hotels)
, , 72
,
.
, 2012

.
:

2014 5 .

, ,

, 2014 10

7% .
[ ]

[ ]
(: )

16,000

40%

31.5%

2011

30%

12,000

20%
8.2% 8.1%

10,000

7.0%

1.6%

10%
0%

6,000

1,400

2014

1,455

1,313

1,432
1,321

1,270
1,223
1,180
1,151

1,100
1,000

-20%

900

-30%

800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1,469

1,200

2,000

-20.9%

2013
1,547

1,300

-10%

4,000

2012

1,600
1,500

14,000

8,000

(: )

13.10 14.10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

,
,
.
[ CSI ]
130

120

110

CSI
CSI

100

90

80
10.1Q

11.1Q

12.1Q

13.1Q

14.1Q

: , ,

KIS Industry Outlook

(Hotels)

1 :

10% , 2000

1 200 ( 3%) .
2014 JW (170) The-K,
1 . ,
1
.
[ 1 ]
2000.12

2011.12

2012.12

2014.10

2013.12

15

8,184

21

10,294

21

10,366

22

10,742

24

11,119

) JW 2013 12 2013 .

, , 2013 .
[ 1 ]

[ 1 ]

(: , %)
RevPar

(: , %)

()

250

90

RevPar

()

250

90

80
200

162
150

129

117 122

130

171

182

70

160

143

70

60
50
40

100

80
200

130

150

100

86

82

79

93

105

141

134

114

50

30
20

50

10
-

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

) RevPar = X

50
40

30
20

60

10
-

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

, ,
, 1
.

KIS Industry Outlook

(Hotels)

15%

. 2014 2013

,
,
.
, 1
2015
.
2008 2 ,
2009 DF( AK) , 2011
.

(2012) (2013),
, 2015 2
3
.
[ ]

[ - ]

(: USD $)

(: )
2011

()

70

35%

35,000

60

30%

30,000

50

25%

25,000

40

20%

20,000

30

15%

15,000

20

10%

10,000

10

5%

5,000

0%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

14.10

2012

2013

13.3Q

14.3Q

: ,

KIS Industry Outlook

(Hotels)

II. Credit Issue

2000 1 / ,

2013 9 8 , 2014 1

.
, 2013 1 USD 1.3
, (2013 26.1%).
,
.
2013 4
, 2014 10
39.0% 5 .
, 1
, .
[ ]

[ ]

(: USD)
2011

2012

(: )

2013

140

112.0

120

120

10%

98.0
100

100
80

60

60

85.0

83.2

6%

57.4
5.5%

40

40

20

20

4.4%
3.3%

3.2%

3.4%

2010

2011

2012

4.7%

China

United State Germany

Russian

United

Federation

Kingdom

4%
2%

8%

72.6

70.3

80

0%
2013 2014(E)

13.09 14.09

: UNWTO(), COTRI(China Outbound Tourism Research Institute)

(distance decay,
) ,

, ,
.

, 2013 10 1

.

KIS Industry Outlook

(Hotels)

. ,

2012
2013 (/100 2012 1,247.5
2014 11 942.9) , 1

. 2015
, ,
.
[ ]
/()

[ - ]

/100()

/100

/()

1,600

190

40%

1,500

185

30%

1,400

180

20%

1,300

175

10%

1,200

170

1,100

165

1,000

160

900

155

800
2010.01

150
2011.01

2012.01

2013.01

2014.01

0%
2010.01

2011.01

2012.01

2013.01

2014.01

-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%

2012

, 2013 .

.
, ,
. ,
2015 2 3
,
.

KIS Industry Outlook

(Hotels)

1 .
, (
, ) ,

, .

110 18,592(2014 7 ) ,
2017 2,000~3,000 . ,
Serviced Residence ,
.
[ ]

[ ]

(: )
()

()

(: )

()

50,000

8,000

3,500
3,000

40,000

6,000

30,000

2,500
2,000

4,000
1,500

20,000
2,000

10,000

1,000
500

2013

2014(E)

2015(E)

2016(E)

2017(E)

2014(E)

2015(E)

2016(E)

2017(E)

: (2014.01.16), (2014.10.31)

1
.
1 ,
.

1 ,

, , ,
.

,
.
.

KIS Industry Outlook

(Hotels)

III. / Monitoring Point

Monitoring Point

2015
,

. ,
2015 ,

.
[ Monitoring Point ]

: - ,
-
:

vs.

2015 , ,

. (FIT) (,
, , )
.
30%
, 2014 , , M/S 5:4:1
. 2015 3 3
,
, .

,

.

KIS Industry Outlook

(Hotels)

2014 12

2014 12 , , ,

, 5 .

, Outlook .
[ ]

2010.12

2011.12

2012.12

2013.12

2014.12

AA+/
A1

AA+/
A1

AA+/
A1

AA+/
A1

AA+/
A1

AA/

AA/

AA/

AA/

A1

A1

A1

A1

A1

AA-/

AA/

AA/

AA/

AA/

A1

A1

A+/

A+/

A1

A1

A1

A1

A+/

A+/

A2

A2+

( )

. ,
, , 2014 4
AA/ AA/ .
2014 / ,
,
, ,
.

1 . 2014 12 GS

( 67.7%) ,
,
, .

. ,

,
. ,
, , .

KIS Industry Outlook

10

(Hotels)

/, ,
.
(Financial Obligations) /
. ,
.
.
, ,
.
/
. /

. ,
, ,

, .
,
.
/
. ,

.



.
,
.
.

, .

KIS Industry Outlook

11