E THI MON XAC SUAT THONG KE

Thi lng: 90 phut.

e gom 2 m t t A4

Trng HBK TP HCM

Bo mon Toan ng dung

- Th sinh ch c dung bang tra s va may tnh bo tui

- Cac gia tr gan ung c lay 4 ch so phan thap phan
Cau 1. (2 ).
Mt ngi vit n bc th cho n ngi bn (mi ngi mt bc th khac
nhau). Trong mi phong b anh ta b mt bc th , ri ghi ngu nhien a ch
ca mt trong n ngi bn ( mi a ch ghi mt ln) . Hay tnh xac suat e co t
nhat mot bc th ghi ung a ch.
Cau 2. (2 ).
Hai cau thu bong ro lan lt nem bong vao ro cho en chng nao mot
ngi nem lot ro th dng li. Ngi th nht nem trc. Lap bng phan phoi
xac suat cua bien ngau nhien X ch so lan nem bong cua ngi th nht, biet
xac suat nem lot ro cua ngi th nhat la 0,45 va ca ngi th hai la 0,36. Tnh
k vng E(X), phng sai D(X).
Cau 3. (3 )
Khi nghien cu ve s anh hng cua thu nhap X(trieu ong ) oi vi mc
o tieu dung Y(kg) ve mot loai thc pham hang thang , ngi ta ieu tra cac
gia nh va thu c bang so lieu sau ay:
Y
15
25
35
45
55

X
10
7

20
8
6

30
8
15
6

40

50

60

14
11
9

9
7
7

6
8

a) Tm phng trnh hoi quy tuyen tnh mu cua X oi vi Y va tnh he so tng

quan mau .

b) Vi o tin cay 0,95, hay tm cac khoang tin cay cho phng sai cua mc thu
nhap va mc o tieu dung oi vi loai thc pham nay cua cac gia nh tren .
c) Co tai lieu noi ty le gia nh co thu nhap cao ( t 50 trieu tr len) la 31%. Vi
mc y ngha 0,05 hay cho nhan xet ve o tin cay cua tai lieu tren.
Cau 4. (3 )
Trong mot th nghiem khoa hoc ngi ta nghien cu o day cua lp ma
ken thu c khi dung ba loai be ma khac nhau. Sau mot thi gian ma, ngi ta
o o day cua lp ma nhan c cac be va c so lieu sau:
o day lp ma
ken

So lan o be ma
B

tnh bang m
48

35

51

68

8 12

100

95

85

12 - 16

34

32

26

16 - 20

41

24

28

20 - 24

25

28

28

Vi mc y ngha = 0,01, hay kiem nh gia thiet: o day lp ma sau khoang

thi gian noi tren khong phu thuoc loai be ma c dung.

CHU NHIEM BO MON

PGS.TS.Nguyen nh Huy

HNG DN
Cu 1: (2)
Gi Ai l bin c l th th i ghi ng a ch. i = 1,2,n.
Gi B l bin c c t nht 1 l th n ng a ch.
B = A1 + A2 + .. + An .

i=1

Xc sut cn tm: P(B) = P Ai = P(Ai )- P(A1A j )+.....+(-1)n-1P(A1A2 ...An )

i1

i<j

1
1 1
1 1 1
1
1 1
1
= n. - C2n . .
+C3n . .
.
- ....+(-1) n-1
= 1- + -.....+(-1) n-1
n
n n-1
n n-1 n-2
n!
2! 3!
n!
Lu l cc bin c Ai khng xung khc v khng c lp i mt.

Cu 2: (2)
Gi Ai l bin c ngi th nht nm trng ln th i; i= 1,2,3
Gi Bi l bin c ngi th hai nm trng ln th i; i= 1,2,3
P(X=1) = P(A1) + P( A1 B1) = a+ (1-a)b = 0,648
( a= 0,45; b= 0,36 )
P(X=2) = P( A1B1 A2) + P( A1B1A 2 B2) = (1-a)(1-b)[ a+ (1-a)b] = 0,352*0,648
P(X=3) = . = (1-a)2(1-b)2[ a+ (1-a)b] = 0,3522*0,648

P(X=k) = . = (1-a)k-1(1-b)k-1[ a+ (1-a)b] = 0,352k-1*0,648

E(X)= k.p.q k-1 =

k=1

1
1
( cng thuc)=
=1,5432 .
p
0,648

p = 0,648; q = 1- 0,648.

1
1 1
1
1
D(X)= k .p.q - = 2 - ( cng thuc)=

=0,8383 .
2
0,648 0,648
k=1
p p p
+

k-1

Cu 3: (3)
a) Cc c trng mu (tham kho):
x 37, 7686

s X 13,5138

s X 13,5700

n 121

y 37,8099

sY 12,5457

sY 12,5978

( xy 1560, 7438)

H s tng quan: rXY 0,7828 .

Phng trnh ng hi quy tuyn tnh mu: X 5,8868 0,8432 Y
b) Tra bng: 20.025 (120) 152, 21
20.975 (120) 91,58
Khong L cho phng sai ca X:
120*13,57002 120*13,57002
;

145,1770; 241, 2905

152, 21
91,58

Khong L cho phng sai ca Y:

120*12,59782 120*12,59782
;

125,1202; 207,9553
152, 21
91,58

c) Gi p l t l gia nh c thu nhp cao.

Gi thit kim nh H0 : p = 31%. Gi thit i H1 : p 31%.
Tra bng z 1,96
37
0,31
121
Tnh tck: z0
121 0,1002
0,31*0, 69

KL: Chp nhn H0.

Cu 4: (3)
Gi thit kim nh H0: dy lp m khng ph thuc loi b m c dng.
H1: dy lp m ph thuc loi b m c dng.
Bng tn s thc nghim:

35

51

68

154

100

95

85

280

34

32

26

92

41

24

28

93

25

28

28

81

235

n=700

230
235
Bng tn s l thuyt:

51.7

50.6

51.7

94

92

94

30.8857 30.2286

30.8857

31.2214 30.5571

31.2214

27.1929 26.6143

27.1929

02 =

18.1449

(8)

2
0,01

20.09

Cch khc tnh tck 02 :

352

512
282
1 700*

...
1
235*81
j 1 ni * m j

235*154 230*154
700*1.02592 1 18,1449
k

02 n.
i 1

nij2

Chp nhn gi thit H0.