Emily Voges

Kiker
Regression Project
September 7, 2014
Fluttering to Extinction
During winter, when the temperature drops, people put on
warmer clothes in to keep themselves cozy and comfortable. But
monarch butterflies are not equipped to handy the cold winters in the
United States. So in order to survive, monarch butterflies during the fall
migrate south to warmer places. While southern California does attract
quite a few monarch butterflies in the winter, the majority of these
exquisite orange and black butterflies head to the central highlands of
Mexico. Once in Mexico, the monarch butterflies hibernate in the
oyamel fir trees. Another reason why these butterflies migrate south
during the winter is because their larval food plants cannot grow in the
winter. So at the beginning of spring, when their food starts to grow
again, monarch butterflies leave Mexico and start the long journey
home. Monarch butterflies devotion to these oyamel fir trees is
extreme, they are the only insect that migrates over 2,500 miles away
from their home each year. But with some so many various factors
affecting and impacting monarch butterflies migrate journey, the data
does not collaborate very much.
The regression equation that fits this data the best is a quartic
function, where y=ax ^4+bx^3+cx^2+dx+e. In this particular
function a=-5.08899E^-4, b=.017, c=-0.175, d=-0.0389, and

e=11.4. Through my research and calculations, I figured out that for

my data, the r^2 value of this quartic function is, r^2=.459; this
means that the regression line has a weak positive correlation. A
regression line can be anywhere between -1 and 1. The nearer is to -1
the more powerful negative correlation it has, and the nearer the line is
to 1 the stronger positive correlation a line has. The r value becomes
weaker the closer the value is to 0. The parent function of the project is
the function in which the value of r is the greatest. In the case of this
project, the parent function is a quartic regression.
. Hopefully zoologists and wildlife biologists will find use for this data.

Monach Butterlies Overnighting Population in Mexico (in hectares) (1 Hectare = 0.0038610mi^2)

Years since 1994

My guess of why of the monarch butterfly population in Mexico

has been fulctuting over the past twenty years is in large part due to

the weather and climate. During especially cold winters in the south,
monarch butterflies have been known not to stay as long, or to migrate
as far. This causes the number of monarch butterlies to migrating to
Mexico to decrease that year. An example of this is in the winter of
2012 and 2013. During these two winters there was a record low
tempterture in Mexico, and these two winters were also reported to
have the least amount of butterflies. Not only are winters getting
colder, but summers are also getting warmer. The increase of
temperture in the warmer seasons has casused the hatch rates of
butterflies to radidly decrease. According to World Wildlife, a reason
why monarch butterflies have been significant and more numerous
decreases in their population is because their primary food source
(milkweed plants) [has been] in short supply because herbicides used
more regularly for agriculture in the US had killed many of the plants.
(WWL).
While insect enthusiasts would likely be very interested in this
data, carriers focused around insects and animals like entomologists
(scientists who study insects) and people who study the geographic
mobility of animals. This data may also attract readers who are part of
endangered animal protecting organizations like, The Nature
Conversancy, and the World Wildlife fund. Through this data, these
organizations might hopefully find a way to increase the endangered
monarch butterfly population, which has, according to National

Geographic journalist Christine Dell'Amore, there has been a forty

percent drop from [the winter of] 2012 to the winter of 2013.
(National Geographic).
While the data may not be very collinear, based of the significant
decline of the monarch butterfly overnighting population over the past
three years, (from 2011-2013), it is my predication that the monarch
population will continue to decline over the next three years,
permitting that nothing is done purposively to improve monarch
butterfly migration. So in 2014 in believe that the population will go
down by another 3.14% from 2013, and that from 2014-2015, the
population will decline by another 42.37%, and from 2015-2016 will go
down by about 52.24%. In other words, if the monarch butterfly
overnighting population in Mexico follow my predications exactly
(which is highly unlikely), one of the worlds most populated migration
grounds for monarch butterflies will be completely gone, as well as
most of this species population by the time that spring comes around
in 2015.