Hi tho chuyn v a dng sinh hc v Bin i kh hu: Mi lin quan ti i ngho v Pht trin bn vng

H Ni, Ngy 22-23 thng 5, 2007

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

TC NG CA ENSO N THI TIT, KH HU, MI TRNG V KINH T X HI VIT NAM

GS.TSKH Nguyn c Ng, Trung tm KHCN Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng (CHMEST)
Lin hip cc Hi Khoa hc v K thut Vit Nam (VUSTA), V cc cng tc vin

_________________________________________________________________
M u
El Nino l t c dng ch hin tng nng ln d thng ca lp nc bin b mt khu vc
xch o trung tm v ng Thi Bnh Dng, ko di 8 - 12 thng, hoc lu hn, thng xut hin 3
- 4 nm 1 ln, song cng c khi dy hn hoc tha hn.
La Nina l hin tng lp nc bin b mt khu vc ni trn lnh i d thng, xy ra vi chu k
tng t hoc tha hn El Nino.
ENSO l ch vit tt ca cc t ghp El Nino Southern Oscillation (El Nino - Dao ng Nam) ch c
2 hai hin tng El Nino v La Nina v c lin quan vi dao ng ca kh p gia 2 b pha ng
Thi Bnh Dng vi pha Ty Thi Bnh Dng - ng n Dng (c gi l Dao ng Nam)
phn bit vi dao ng kh p Bc i Ty Dng).
Hin tng El Nino v La Nina c nh hng n thi tit, kh hu ton cu vi mc khc nhau v
rt a dng. Tuy nhin, i vi tng khu vc c th, vn c th xc nh c nhng nh hng ch
yu c tnh c trng ca mi hin tng ni trn.
Hin tng El Nino v La Nina th hin s bin ng d thng trong h thng kh quyn - i dng
vi quy m thi gian gia cc nm, c tnh chu k hoc chun chu k. Trong tnh hnh bin i kh
hu - s nng ln ton cu, hin tng ENSO cng c nhng biu hin d thng v cng .
Nghin cu hin tng ENSO hiu bit v c ch vt l, c im v quy lut din bin cng nh
nhng hu qu tc ng ca chng, chng ta c th cnh bo trc s xut hin ca ENSO, nhng
nh hng c th xy ra i vi thi tit, kh hu v kinh t - x hi c nhng bin php phng,
trnh hiu qu, hn ch v gim nh thit hi do ENSO gy ra.
I.

Khi qut v c ch vt l ca ENSO

Dao ng Nam v Hon lu Walker

Dao ng Nam (Southern Oscillation) l s dao ng ca kh p quy m ln, t nm ny qua nm
khc 2 pha ng v Ty ca khu vc xch o Thi Bnh Dng, c Gilbert I.Walker pht hin
vo cui nhng nm 20 ca th k trc. Hn 40 nm sau, Jacob Bjerknes (1966) tha nhn c s
dao ng c ln trong hon lu tn phong ca Bn cu Bc v Nam Thi Bnh Dng v ng cho
rng n c lin quan vi Dao ng Nam. Khi tn phong mnh, nc tng i lnh c ngun gc
nc tri xch o thuc b bin Nam M c hnh thnh bi p lc ca gi ng ln b mt i
dng, m rng v pha Ty ti trung tm Thi Bnh Dng. S chnh lch kh p gia ng (cao)
v Ty (thp) v nhit gia ng (thp) v Ty (cao) trn khu vc xch o Thi Bnh Dng dn
n chuyn ng ngc chiu ca khng kh tng thp (gi ng) v trn cao (gi Ty); pha
ng c chuyn ng ging, pha Ty c chuyn ng thng ca khng kh, to thnh mt hon lu
khp kn, c Bjerknes gi l Hon lu Walker. Chnh lch nhit v kh p gia ng v Ty
Chuyn lch nhit v kh p
Thi Bnh Dng cng ln, hon lu Walker cng
mnh, ngc li, chnh
Gi Ty
ng
gim, honi
luluWalker yu i.
ging
pht trin

Hnh 1.1: S hon lu Walker trong iu kin bnh thng

HON LU WALKER

Tn phong BBC
Nng, kh p thp
Xch o

Gi ng

Lnh, kh p cao
Tn phong NBC

Nm nhit

1200

Nc tri

800T

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H Ni, Ngy 22-23 thng 5, 2007
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Thng thng, nhit nc bin gim dn theo su nn t mt bin n su khong vi trm

mt, nhit vng bin pha Ty Thi Bnh Dng cao hn pha ng, to ra mt lp nc chuyn
tip gia lp nc bn trn nng hn vi lp nc bn di lnh hn, c nghing t ng sang
Ty Thi Bnh Dng, thng c gi l nm nhit (the Thermocline). su ca nm nhit b
pha Ty khong 200m, gim dn v b pha ng ch cn vi chc mt. Khi hon lu Walker mnh
ln, hot ng ca nc tri tng ln, nghing ca nm nhit ln hn, tri li, khi hon lu Walker
yu i, nc tri b hn ch, nghing ca nm nhit gim i.
Tng tc i dng - kh quyn
Tng tc i dng - kh quyn l qu trnh trao i nhit, m, ng lng, nng lng gia lp
nc b mt i dng vi lp khng kh bn trn, ch yu thng qua hot ng i lu v cc xoy
kh quyn. Trn khu vc pha Ty xch o Thi Bnh Dng (vng b nng (the warm pool)), ni c
hi t ca gi ng v gi Ty tng thp, thng din ra hot ng i lu su trong nhnh pha Ty
ca hon lu Walker. My, ma nhiu v lng bc x pht x sng di (OLR) t mt bin thng
khng vt qu 240w/m2. Do , lng bc sng ngn t mt tri (Qsw) thng nh hn lng tim
nhit bc hi (Qe).
Tri li, vng xch o pha ng Thi Bnh Dng, trong nhnh pha ng ca Hon lu Walker
thng c chuyn ng ging ca khng kh, hot ng i lu b hn ch, t my, ma. Lng bc
x pht x sng di t mt bin thng t nhng gi tr cc i (>280w/m 2). Bc x sng ngn t
mt tri cng t nhng gi tr ln nht v thng ln hn lng tim nhit bc hi.
Khi hon lu Walker hot ng yu hn bnh thng (gi ng tng thp yu, trong khi gi Ty
vng pha Ty Thi Bnh Dng xch o pht trin mnh ln), vng i lu su Ty Thi Bnh
Dng b dch chuyn v pha ng n trung tm Thi Bnh Dng, lm tng cng cc chuyn
ng xoy ca kh quyn vng ny, lng my v ma tng ln; OLR gim, lng nhit v lng
m t i dng chuyn vo kh quyn gim i. Tri li, vng pha Ty Thi Bnh Dng xch o,
i lu b hn ch, lng my v ma gim i; OLR tng, lng nhit v m t i dng chuyn
vo kh quyn tng ln.
C ch hot ng ca ENSO
Di p lc ca gi ng tng thp, mt bin khu vc xch o Thi Bnh Dng nghing v pha
ng (mc nc bin b pha Ty Thi Bnh Dng cao hn b pha ng khong 30 - 70cm).
Khi hon lu Walker suy yu hoc b tch thnh 2 phn, p lc ca gi ng ln mt bin gim i, ko
theo s suy yu ca nc tri v dng chy hng Ty, nc bin t vng b nng Ty Thi Bnh
Dng nhanh chng dn v pha ng, to thnh mt sng i dng xch o (sng Kelvin) lan
truyn v pha ng v nhit t vng b nng c vn chuyn v vng trung tm v ng Thi Bnh
Dng, lm cho nc bin b mt vng ny nng ln d thng. Kt qu l chnh lch nhit
nc bin gia vng pha ng v pha Ty gim i, su ca nm nhit b pha Ty gim i,
trong khi b pha ng
i nhit
ng
trongiu
lp nc
trn i dng mnh
Hnhtng
1.2:ln,
S trao
hon
luthng
Walker
trong
kin xo
El Nino
m hn.

i lu
hn ch

Gi Ty

Gi ng

i lu
hn ch

HON LU WALKER
i lu
pht trin

Tn phong BBC yu
Lnh i, kh p tng
Xch o

Gi Ty mnh ln

Nng ln, kh p gim

Gi ng yu
Tn phong NBC yu

su nm
nhit gim
Nm nhit

1200

Nc
tri yu

800T

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___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Sng Kelvin lan truyn ti b pha ng Thi Bnh Dng trung bnh mt khong 50 ngy v b phn
x tr li. S phn x ny gy ra mt sng i dng (sng Rossby) chuyn ng v pha Ty vi
thi gian trung bnh khong 6 thng, qua , lp nc b mt m li c vn chuyn v pha Ty.
S phn x qua li ca cc sng Kelvin v Rossby 2 b ca Thi Bnh Dng quyt nh di v
tnh khng n nh trong cc pha ca mt chu trnh El Nino. Nh vy, c th thy sng Kelvin lm
gim chnh lch nhit gia ng v Ty Thi Bnh Dng (hiu ng m), tri li, sng Rossby cho
hiu ng dng. Trn thc t, s duy tr mt thi gian di (12 - 14 thng) hin tng nng ln d
thng ca nhit nc bin b mt trung tm v ng Thi Bnh Dng xch o (1 chu trnh El
Nino) chng t hiu ng nhit bnh lu do sng Kelvin to ra ln hn hiu ng nc tri do sng
Rossby gy ra vng bin ny. vng bin pha Ty Thi Bnh Dng xch o, s thay i (gim
i) ca nhit mt nc bin trong chu trnh El Nino khng ln nh vng trung tm v ng Thi
Bnh Dng xch o, chng t hiu ng nhit do cc sng Kelvin v sng Rossby b trit tiu nhiu.
Khi hon lu Walker mnh hn bnh thng, p lc gi ng ln mt bin tng ln, c th dn n
mt chu trnh ngc li vi chu trnh El Nino (chu trnh La Nina) do hot ng ca nc tri mnh hn
v bnh lu lnh hng Ty tng ln, lm cho vng bin trung tm v ng Thi Bnh Dng lnh i
d thng.
Nhng nhn t bt n nh chnh c tc ng n hon lu Walker trn khu vc Thi Bnh
Dng, khi ng cho mt chu trnh ENSO
1/

S bin ng ca p cao cn nhit i Thi Bnh Dng v cng , phm vi v v tr tm p

cao, nh hng trc tip n hot ng ca tn phong 2 bn cu.

2/

S bo pht gi Ty trn vng bin xch o Ty Thi Bnh Dng, lin quan n hot ng
ca cc p cao Nam n Dng v p cao Chu c.

3/

Dao ng trong ma Madden - Julian (MJO) vi chu k 30 - 60 ngy trn khu vc ng n

Dng v Ty Thi Bnh Dng xch o.

4/

Hot ng d thng ca cc xoy thun nhit i trn vng bin xa xch o, khu vc trung
tm Thi Bnh Dng, lin quan n hot ng ca i gi Ty v trung bnh.

II. Din bin ca ENSO trong thi k 1951 - 2005

2.1 Ch tiu xc nh cc chu trnh ENSO
Trong nghin cu ny quy nh:
Mt chu trnh El Nino l thi k lin tc, ko di t 6 thng tr ln, c tr s trung bnh trt 5 thng
ca chun sai thng nhit trung bnh mt nc bin ( SSTA ) vng NINO.3 (50N - 50S, 1500W 900W), ln hn hoc bng 0,50C.
Mt chu trnh La Nina l thi k lin tc, ko di t 6 thng tr ln c tr s trung bnh trt 5 thng
ca chun sai thng nhit trung bnh b mt nc bin vng NINO.3 nh hn hoc bng 0,5 0C.
2.2 Cc chu trnh El Nino v La Nina trong thi k 1951 - 2005
Bng 1: Cc t ENSO nng (El Nino)
Thng bt u Thng kt thc

Thi gian Cc i SSTA (0C) v

ko di
thng xut hin

S TT

t El Nino

1951/1952

6/1951

1/1952

1.3

10/1951

1953

3/1953

11/1953

1.1

9/1953

1957/1958

4/1957

5/1958

14

1.8

12/1957

1963/1964

6/1963

2/1964

1.2

12/0963

1965/1966

5/1965

2/1966

10

1.8

12/1965

1968/69/70

9/1968

2/1970

18

1.4

12/1969

1972/1973

4/1972

3/1973

12

2.6

12/1972

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Thi gian Cc i SSTA (0C) v

ko di
thng xut hin

S TT

t El Nino

Thng bt u Thng kt thc

1976/1977

6/1976

2/1977

1.2

9,10/1976

1979

7/1979

12/1979

1.2

9/1979

10

1982/1983

4/1982

9/1983

18

3.6

1/1983

11

1986/87/88

9/1986

1/1988

17

2.0

9/1987

12

1991/1992

4/1991

6/1992

15

1.7

1/1992

13

1993

2/1993

8/1993

1.5

5/1993

14

1997/1998

4/1997

6/1998

15

3.9

12/1997

15

2002/2003

7/2002

1/2003

1.4

11,12/2002

Ghi ch: Cc t c gch di l t El Nino mnh

Bng 2: Cc t ENSO lnh (La Nina)
S TT

t La Nina

Thng bt u Thng kt thc

Thi gianCc i SSTA (0C) v

ko di
thng xut hin

1949/1950

Cui 1949

4/1950

-1.7

2/1950

1954/55/56

5/1954

2/1956

22

-2.0

11/1955

1964/1965

4/1964

1/1965

10

-1.2

12/1964

1967/1968

9/1967

4/1968

-1.3

2/1968

1970/1971

6/1970

12/1971

19

-1.5

12/1970

1973/1974

6/1973

3/1974

10

-1.4

1/1974

1975/1976

4/1975

3/1976

12

-1.5

12/1975,
1/1976

1984/1985

10/1984

12/1985

15

-1.2

12/1984

9
10

1988/1989
1998/99/00

4/1988
10/1998

3/1989
3/2000

12
18

-1.7
-1.6

11, 12/1988
1/2000

Ghi ch: Cc t c gch di l cc t La Nina mnh

2.3 Nhn xt v c im phn b v din bin ca cc chu trnh ENSO
1/

Trong 55 nm (1951 - 2005) xy ra:

15 t El Nino, trong :

t di nht (1968 - 1970 v 1982 - 1983): 18 thng.

t ngn nht (1979): 6 thng.

Trung bnh mt t: 12 thng.

10 t La Nina, trong :

t di nht (1954 - 1956): 22 thng.

t ngn nht (1967 - 1968): 8 thng.

Trung bnh mt t: 13 thng.

C 6 ln 2 t El Nino k tip nhau, nhng ch c mt ln 2 t La Nina k tip nhau.

2/

C 8 t El Nino mnh (SSTA trung bnh thng 1,5 0C)

C 6 t La Nina mnh (SSTA thng ln nht -1,5 0C)

3/

Hu ht cc t ENSO bt u vo ma xun (thng 3 - thng 5), trong nhiu nht l thng

4, kt thc vo ma ng hoc ma xun (thng 12 - thng 4).

Cha c t El Nino mnh no bt u vo gia ma ng hay ma h.

Cha c t La Nina mnh no bt u vo gia ma ng.

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4/

Thi k mnh nht (cc i) ca mi t ENSO l gia ma ng (thng 12 - thng 1).

5/

Mi t ENSO u th hin r 7 giai on, mi giai on ko di 2 - 3 thng

1.Giai on trc khi bt u.
2.Giai on bt u.
3.Giai on pht trin.
4.Giai on chuyn tip.
5.Giai on cc tr.
6.Giai on suy yu.
7.Giai on tan r.

III.

Tc ng ca ENSO n mt s yu t v hin tng kh tng thy vn.

3.1nh hng ca ENSO n hot ng ca bo v p thp nhit i

Trong 45 nm (1956 - 2000), c 311 cn bo v p thp nhit i (sau y gi chung l xoy
thun nhit i - XTN) nh hng trc tip n Vit Nam, trung bnh mi nm c 6,9 cn, trung bnh
mi thng c 0,58 cn
Bng
3:
Tn
s
XTN
trung
nh hng trc tip n Vit Nam (1956 - 2000)

bnh

thng

nm

Thng

10

11

12

Nm

Tn s

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,7

0,7

1,2

1,4

1,3

1,0

0,3

6,9

Cng thi gian trn c tng s 150 thng El Nino vi 63 XTN nh hng trc tip, trung bnh mi
thng El Nino c 0,42 cn, t hn trung bnh nhiu nm khong 28%. Trong khi , trung bnh mi
thng La Nina c 0,80 cn (86 cn/107 thng), nhiu hn trung bnh nhiu nm khong 38%.
Trong c ma bo (t thng 6 n thng 12), trung bnh nhiu nm c 6,64 cn, mi thng ma bo
c 0,95. Trong iu kin El Nino, trung bnh c ma bo c 4,83 cn, mi thng ma bo c 0,69 cn,
t hn trung bnh nhiu nm khong 27%. Tri li, trong iu kin La Nina, trung bnh ma bo c 9,17
cn, mi thng ma bo c 1,31 cn, nhiu hn trung bnh nhiu nm khong 38%. Ngoi ra, trong
iu kin El Nino, xoy thun nhit i thng tp trung vo gia ma bo (thng 7, 8, 9), trong iu
kin La Nina, XTN thng nhiu hn vo na cui ma bo (thng 9, 10, 11).
3.2nh hng ca ENSO n tn s front lnh
Trong nhng nm El Nino v La Nina, s front lnh nh hng n nc ta u t hn bnh thng.
T l gia tng chun sai dng v tng chun sai m ca tn s front lnh qua H Ni ca cc
thng trong nm ch bng 70%. Thi gian kt thc hot ng ca khng kh lnh Vit Nam sm hn
bnh thng
Bng 4: Chun sai tn s front lnh qua H Ni
trong cc thng El Nino v La Nina
Du chun sai
Dng
El Nino
m
Dng
La Nina
m

1
7
4
0
4

2
4
7
2
6

3
1
7
2
6

4
2
10
3
5

5
5
8
5
2

6
7
6
3
6

7
2
11
0
8

8
1
12
4
4

9
7
7
4
5

10
9
4
7
4

11
9
4
4
7

12
6
7
8
3

Tng s
60
87
42
60

3.3nh hng ca ENSO n nhit

hu ht cc vng trong c nc, nhit trung bnh cc thng trong iu kin El Nino u cao hn
bnh thng, ma ng chnh lch r rt hn ma h, cc khu vc pha Nam chu nh hng r hn
pha Bc. Tri li, trong iu kin La Nina, nhit trung bnh cc thng thp hn bnh thng,
pha Bc chu nh hng nhiu hn pha Nam
Bng 5: T l gia tng s chun sai dng v tng s chun sai m ca nhit trung bnh
cc thng trong cc iu kin El Nino v La Nina

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Trm

Lng Sn Sn La H Ni Vinh

Nng Pleiku

Cn Th

Tn SnTrung
Nht
bnh

El Nino 1.4

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.8

1.3

1.6

2.0

1.5

La Nina 0.7

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.6

Ngoi ra, hin tng El Nino, nht l cc t El Nino mnh (1982 - 1983, 1997 - 1998) cn gy ra
nhiu k lc v nhit cao nht tuyt i nhiu ni. Ngc li, hin tng La Nina li gy ra
nhng k lc v nhit ti thp tuyt i
Bng 6: Mt s k lc nhit cao nht tuyt (Tx) v thp nht tuyt i (Tm) trong cc t El
Nino v La Nina
Trm

Lng Sn Sn La

El Nino

La
Nina

H Ni

Vinh

TX
39.4 (6/83) 40.0
(thng/n 37.6 (7/83) 36.3 (3/98)
39.6 (6/98) (5/98)
m)
5.4 (1/77)
10.6
(11/79)

Tm
(thng/n
m)
TX
(thng/n
m)

40.1 (6/98)

38.9
(5/98)

13.1 (2/77) 8.6 (2/77)

40.0
(5/88)

39.5 (6/99)

-1.7 (2/68)
Tm
-0.2
(thng/n -1.5
(12/75)
m)
(12/75)

Nng Pleiku

Cn Th

Tn Sn
Nht

36.0
(4/98)

39.3
(5/98)

16.5
(12/63)

37.3
(3/99)

5.9 (1/74)
9.4 (12/99) 6.1
5.0 (2/68) 5.1
10.2 (1/74) (12/75)
(12/99)

39.7
(1/99)
14.8
(1/63)

3.4nh hng ca ENSO n lng ma

Mc thm ht lng ma trong tng t ENSO c nh ngha l hiu s gia tng lng ma
thc t trong tng t ENSO vi tng lng ma trung bnh nhiu nm ca cng thi k, mt a
im no , biu th bng % (DR). Kt qu nghin cu cho thy, hu ht cc t El Nino gy thm
ht lng ma hu ht cc vng, DR ph bin t 25 n 50%, hu ht cc t La Nina gy ra
lng ma vt trung bnh nhiu nm cc tnh ven bin Trung B v Ty Nam B, nhng gy ra
thm ht lng ma Bc B, Ty Nguyn v ng Nam B (bng 6: Mc thm ht lng ma
trong cc t ENSO mt s a im).
ng ch l, a s cc t ENSO gy ra tnh trng ht ma, song mt s t El Nino, La Nina
cho nhng k lc v lng ma ln nht trong 24h v s thng lin tc ht ma mt s ni, cho
thy ENSO lm tng tnh bin ng ca ma Vit Nam.
3.5

nh hng ca ENSO n mc nc bin vng ven bin v hi o Vit Nam.

El Nino gy ra hiu ng m (h < 0), tri li La Nina gy ra hiu ng dng (h > 0) i vi mc

nc bin ven bin v hi o nc ta.
Bng 7: Mc thm ht ma trong iu kin ENSO mt s a im

Nng

Nha
Trang

Phan
Thit

Bun
Plei Ku Ma
Thut

Lt

S t El Nino gy
ht ma trong ton
6/11
t trn tng s 11
t c xem xt

8/11

9/11

10/11

7/11

10/11

8/11

ht ma TB 1 t 22,6
El Nino (%)
(12,4)

17,6
(12,8)

24,1
(19,7)

13,4
(12,2)

17,4
(11,1)

21,7
(19,7)

19,0
(13,8)

c trng

Vinh

Ghi ch

S trong ( )
l TB trong
tng s 11
t El Nino

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c
xt
S t La Nina gy 3/8
ht ma trong ton
t trn tng s 8
t c xem xt

3/8

1/7

5/8

5/8

3/7

3/7

ht ma TB 1 t 15,0
La Nina (%)
(5,6)

19,2
(7,2)

47,2
(5,9)

17,0
(10,6)

18,0
(11,3)

20,9
(8,9)

9,7
(5,5)

xem

S trong ( )
l TB trong
tng s 8 t
La
Nina
c
xem
xt

3.6nh hng ca ENSO n mn nc bin vng ven bin v hi o Vit Nam.

Nhn chung, nh hng ca El Nino lm tng mn, tri li La Nina l gim mn ca nc bin
vng ven bin v hi o nc ta.
3.7 nh hng ca ENSO n dng chy sng ngi Vit Nam.
-

Trong nhng nm El Nino, phn ln cc trm c dng chy nm nh hn trung bnh nhiu nm
t 10% tr ln, nhng nm El Nino mnh c th gim ti 50 - 60%.

Trong nhng nm La Nina, dng chy nm cc sng thng ln hn trung bnh nhiu nm, c
nm, mt s sng, ln hn ti 80 - 100%.

i vi dng chy ma l cng c c im tng t: trong nhng nm El Nino thng nh

hn gi tr dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm, t l (%) gia dng chy ma l v dng chy trung
bnh nhiu nm t 65 - 95%, tri li, trong nhng nm La Nina, t l ny thng l 101 110%, mt s vng ln ti 130 - 140% (vng ni Bc B, Trung B v Ty Nguyn). Tuy
nhin, tnh bin ng ca c trng ny trong iu kin ENSO rt ln, khng loi tr c nm El
Nino, dng chy ma l ln hn dng dy trung bnh nhiu nm, ngc li, trong nhng nm
La Nina, dng chy ma l nh hn dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm.

i vi dng chy ma cn, trong nhng nm El Nino, lng dng chy 3 thng lin tc nh
nht hu ht cc trm u nh hn tr s trung bnh nhiu nm ca thi k tng ng v t
khong 80 - 90%, tri li, trong nhng nm La Nina - ln hn tr s trung bnh nhiu nm v t
101 - 140%. i vi dng chy thng nh nht cng c tnh hnh tng t.

3.8nh hng ca ENSO n sn lng thy in.

Quan h gia lu lng nc trung bnh nm vi sn lng nm ca 4 nh my thy in l
Ha Bnh, Thc B, Tr An, a Nhim l ng bin, vi h s tng quan 0,5 - 0,8. Do , c th thy
nh hng ca El Nino c th lm gim sn lng thy in, trong khi nh hng ca La Nina gp
phn thun li cho vic tng sn lng thy in ca cc nh my nu trn.
3.9nh hng ca ENSO n sn xut nng nghip.
-

Trong iu kin El Nino, nng sut la bnh qun ca v ng Xun gim so vi v trc ,
nht l vng trung du Bc B, tri li nng sut la v ma tng, nht l vng Bc Trung B.

Trong iu kin La Nina, nng sut la bnh qun v ng Xun v v ma u tng so vi v

trc , trong v ng Xun r nht ng bng Bc B, v ma r nht ng bng
sng Cu Long.

Trong iu kin ENSO, din tch c ph cho thu hoch v sn lng c ph u tng so vi v
trc: nhng nm La Nina, din tch c ph ln hn nhng nm El Nino, song sn lng c
ph nhng nm El Nino cao hn nhng nm La Nina.

3.10 nh hng ca ENSO n i sng v sc khe con ngi.

-

Theo thng k, t 1977 n 2000, tng s ngi b cht v mt tch do thin tai l 14.962, trong
xy ra vo nhng nm ENSO chim 64% (El Nino 43%, La Nina 21%).

T l s ngi mc bnh st xut huyt trn 100.000 ngi trong thi k 1976 - 1998 c quan
h vi hin tng El Nino vi h s tng quan t 0,4 n 0,6. Ring t El Nino 1997 - 1998,
c nc c 51 tnh, thnh ph c dch st xut huyt vi t l bnh qun 306/100.000 ngi.

Hi tho chuyn v a dng sinh hc v Bin i kh hu: Mi lin quan ti i ngho v Pht trin bn vng
H Ni, Ngy 22-23 thng 5, 2007
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

IV.

Kh nng d bo s tc ng ca ENSO n cc yu t v hin tng kh tng thy

vn.

Trn c s phn tch mi quan h gia cc c trng ca ENSO (ch s Dao ng Nam SOI,
lch chun nhit mt nc bin cc vng NiNo) vi cc yu t kh hu v hin tng kh tng
thy vn, xy dng c mt s m hnh thng k d bo ma (3 thng) trn c s cc thng tin
v ENSO i vi cc yu t v hin tng kh tng thy vn sau y:
1.

Tn sut xoy thun nhit i trn khu vc Bin ng v Vit Nam.

2.

Nhit khng kh trung bnh v cc tr.

3.

Lng ma (tng lng v cc i).

4.

Lu lng dng chy ti mt s im trn lu vc sng Hng.

5.

Hn hn.

Cc kt qu d bo u c nh gi bng cc ch s nh gi d bo: FI (Forecasting

Index), t l thnh cng HR (Hit Rate), sai s qun phng (RMSE), phng sai rt gn (RV) v
tinh xo (Heidke) v cho kt qu tt.
V.

Mt s gii php nhm hn ch tc ng xu v thit hi do ENSO gy ra.

Ngoi cc gii php cng trnh lin quan n thy li, rng phng h, bo v gii ven bin...,
cc gii php phi cng trnh ch yu l:
1.

Quy hoch v qun l tng th cc lu vc sng, h thng cc h cha nc.

2.

iu chnh c cu sn xut, ma v mt s vng nhm thch ng vi nh hng ca ENSO.

3.

Xy dng v hon thin cc phng n theo di, cnh bo, d bo tc ng ca ENSO.

4.

Tng cng cng tc t chc, qun l thin tai ca Nh nc v ca cc ngnh i vi tc

ng ca ENSO nh mt b phn ca chin lc quc gia v pht trin bn vng.

5.

Tip tc tng cng cng tc tuyn truyn, nng cao nhn thc cho cng chng v ENSO v
nhng gii php phng trnh.

Ti liu tham kho:

1.

Nguyn c Ng v CTV; Tc ng ca ENSO n thi tit, kh hu, mi trng v kinh t x

hi Vit Nam - Bo co tng kt khoa hc ti nghin cu khoa hc c lp cp nh nc.
H Ni 2002.

2.

S liu chun sai nhit b mt nc bin cc thng trn cc vng NINO thi k 1951 - 2005.
Trung tm d bo kh hu quc gia Hoa K.