Slides Prepared by

JOHN S. LOUCKS
St. Edwards University

2002 South-Western/Thomson Learning

Chapter 6
Continuous Probability Distributions

Uniform Probability Distribution

Normal Probability Distribution
Exponential Probability Distribution
f(x)

Continuous Probability Distributions

A continuous random variable can assume any

value in an interval on the real line or in a
collection of intervals.
It is not possible to talk about the probability of
the random variable assuming a particular
value.
Instead, we talk about the probability of the
random variable assuming a value within a
given interval.
The probability of the random variable
assuming a value within some given interval
from x1 to x2 is defined to be the area under
the graph of the probability density function
between x1 and x2.
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Uniform Probability Distribution

A random variable is uniformly distributed

whenever the probability is proportional to the
intervals length.
Uniform Probability Density Function
f(x) = 1/(b - a) for a < x < b
=0
elsewhere
where: a = smallest value the variable can
assume
b = largest value the variable can
assume
4

Uniform Probability Distribution

Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2

Variance of x
Var(x) = (b - a)2/12
where: a = smallest value the variable can
assume
b = largest value the variable can
assume

Example: Slater's Buffet

Uniform Probability Distribution

Slater customers are charged for the
amount of salad they take. Sampling suggests
that the amount of salad taken is uniformly
distributed between 5 ounces and 15 ounces.
The probability density function is
f(x) = 1/10 for 5 < x < 15
= 0 elsewhere
where:
x = salad plate filling weight

Example: Slater's Buffet

Uniform Probability Distribution

What is the probability that a customer will
take between 12 and 15 ounces of salad?
f(x)
P(12 < x < 15) = 1/10(3) = .3
1/10
x
5
10 12 15
Salad Weight (oz.)
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Example: Slater's Buffet

Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2
= (5 + 15)/2
= 10
Variance of x
Var(x) = (b - a)2/12
= (15 5)2/12
= 8.33

Normal Probability Distribution

Graph of the Normal Probability Density

Function
f(x)

Normal Probability Distribution

Characteristics of the Normal Probability

Distribution
The shape of the normal curve is often
illustrated as a bell-shaped curve.
Two parameters, (mean) and (standard
deviation), determine the location and
shape of the distribution.
The highest point on the normal curve is at
the mean, which is also the median and
mode.
The mean can be any numerical value:
negative, zero, or positive.
continued
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Normal Probability Distribution

Characteristics of the Normal Probability

Distribution
The normal curve is symmetric.
The standard deviation determines the
width of the curve: larger values result in
wider, flatter curves.
The total area under the curve is 1 (.5 to the
left of the mean and .5 to the right).
Probabilities for the normal random variable
are given by areas under the curve.

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Normal Probability Distribution

% of Values in Some Commonly Used Intervals

68.26% of values of a normal random
variable are within +/- 1 standard
deviation of its mean.
95.44% of values of a normal random
variable are within +/- 2 standard
deviations of its mean.
99.72% of values of a normal random
variable are within +/- 3 standard
deviations of its mean.

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Normal Probability Distribution

Normal Probability Density Function

1
( x )2 / 2 2
f ( x)
e
2
where:
=
=
=
e=

mean
standard deviation
3.14159
2.71828

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Standard Normal Probability Distribution

A random variable that has a normal

distribution with a mean of zero and a
standard deviation of one is said to have a
standard normal probability distribution.
The letter z is commonly used to designate
this normal random variable.
Converting to the Standard Normal Distribution

x
z

We can think of z as a measure of the number

of standard deviations x is from .
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Example: Pep Zone

Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Pep Zone sells auto parts and supplies
including a
popular multi-grade motor oil. When the stock of
this
oil drops to 20 gallons, a replenishment order is
placed.
The store manager is concerned that sales are
being
lost due to stockouts while waiting for an order.
It has
been determined that leadtime demand is
normally
distributed with a mean of 15 gallons and a
15

Example: Pep Zone

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

The Standard Normal table shows an area of .
2967 for the region between the z = 0 and z =
.83 lines below. The shaded tail area is .5 - .
2967 = .2033. The probability of a stock-out is
.2033.
Area = .2967
z = (x - )/
= (20 - 15)/6
= .83
Area = .5 - .2967
= .2033
Area = .5
0 .83

z
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Example: Pep Zone

Using the Standard Normal Probability Table

.00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05

z
.0 .0000 .0040 .0080 .0120 .0160 .0199
.1 .0398 .0438 .0478 .0517 .0557 .0596
.2 .0793 .0832 .0871 .0910 .0948 .0987
.3 .1179 .1217 .1255 .1293 .1331 .1368

.06

.07

.08

.09

.0239 .0279 .0319 .0359

.0636 .0675 .0714 .0753
.1026 .1064 .1103 .1141
.1406 .1443 .1480 .1517

.4 .1554 .1591 .1628 .1664 .1700 .1736 .1772 .1808 .1844 .1879
.5 .1915 .1950 .1985 .2019 .2054 .2088
.6 .2257 .2291 .2324 .2357 .2389 .2422
.7 .2580 .2612 .2642 .2673 .2704 .2734
.8 .2881 .2910 .2939 .2967 .2995 .3023

.2123 .2157 .2190 .2224

.2454 .2486 .2518 .2549
.2764 .2794 .2823 .2852
.3051 .3078 .3106 .3133

.9 .3159 .3186 .3212 .3238 .3264 .3289 .3315 .3340 .3365 .3389
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Example: Pep Zone

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

If the manager of Pep Zone wants the
probability of a stockout to be no more
than .05, what should the reorder point
be?

Area = .05
Area = .5Area = .45
z.05
0
Let z.05 represent the z value cutting the .05 tail
area.
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Example: Pep Zone

Using the Standard Normal Probability Table

We now look-up the .4500 area in the Standard
Normal Probability table to find the
corresponding z.05 value.
z
.

.00

.01

.02

.03

.04

.05

.06

.07

.08

.09

1.5 .4332 .4345 .4357 .4370 .4382 .4394

1.6 .4452 .4463 .4474 .4484 .4495 .4505
1.7 .4554 .4564 .4573 .4582 .4591 .4599
1.8 .4641 .4649 .4656 .4664 .4671 .4678

.4406 .4418 .4429 .4441

.4515 .4525 .4535 .4545
.4608 .4616 .4625 .4633
.4686 .4693 .4699 .4706

1.9 .4713 .4719 .4726 .4732 .4738 .4744 .4750 .4756 .4761 .4767
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

z.05 = 1.645 is a reasonable estimate.

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Example: Pep Zone

Standard Normal Probability Distribution

The corresponding value of x is given by
x = + z.05

= 15 + 1.645(6)
= 24.87
A reorder point of 24.87 gallons will place
the probability of a stockout during leadtime at
.05. Perhaps Pep Zone should set the reorder
point at 25 gallons to keep the probability
under .05.

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Exponential Probability Distribution

Exponential Probability Density Function

1 x /
f ( x ) for
x
e > 0, > 0

where:
= mean
e = 2.71828

21

Exponential Probability Distribution

Cumulative Exponential Distribution Function

P ( x x0 ) 1 e xo /
where:
x0 = some specific value of x

22

Example: Als Carwash

Exponential Probability Distribution

The time between arrivals of cars at Als
Carwash follows an exponential probability
distribution with a mean time between arrivals
of 3 minutes. Al would like to know the
probability that the time between two
successive arrivals will be 2 minutes or less.
P(x < 2) = 1 - 2.71828-2/3 = 1 - .5134 = .
4866

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Example: Als Carwash

Graph of the Probability Density Function

f(x)
.4
.3 P(x < 2) = area = .4866
.2
.1
1

x
9 10

Time Between Successive Arrivals (mins.)

24

Relationship between the Poisson

and Exponential Distributions
(If) the Poisson distribution
provides an appropriate description
of the number of occurrences
per interval

(If) the exponential distribution

provides an appropriate description
of the length of the interval
between occurrences
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End of Chapter 6

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